tv BBC Business Live BBC News March 24, 2017 8:30am-9:01am GMT
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this is business live from bbc news with rachel home and sally bundock. trump in trouble — the american president struggles to pass healthcare reforms, leading investors to worry he might not be able to deliver. live from london, that's our top story on friday 24th march. stock markets have risen since president trump's election on the promise of big spending to boost the economy, but will his struggles with congress get in the way? also in the programme... big falls for samsung's shares after the south korean giant says it won't make the changes some investors want after its troubles at the top. and markets worldwide are once again focused on washington and assessing president trump's ability to push through reform. this is how the day has started in europe — we'll talk you through the winners
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and the losers. also in the programme — robots are increasingly taking ourjobs, but will it be good for the economy? our economics editor kamal ahmed will be here to discuss that and the latest on brexit. today we want to know, would you pay to tweet? twitter is considering a paid membership option for businesses and power users — what do you think? use the hashtag #bbcbizlive. get in touch with us, we do love to hear from you. welcome to the programme. we start in the us, where president trump is battling to deliver on one of his biggest election promises, and to hang on to his credibility with investors. late on thursday, republicans were forced to delay a vote in the house of representatives on scrapping and replacing the healthcare reforms known as obamacare becuase they struggled
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to drum up enough support across their own party. mr trump is now trying to force a vote this afternoon, without knowing if it will pass. on wall street it's being seen as a key test of the trump administration. the concern is if he can't deliver on scrapping obamacare, his other plans for massive tax cuts and spending hikes may not get through congress either. let's just show you the scale of the expectation that has built up. $2.2 trillion has been added to the value of us shares since trump was elected, in a rally of historic proportions. if you take a look at the dowjones industrial average, it has soared since the election in november. as of the start of this week, it had gone up 14% since the us election.
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the financial sector has been the biggest winner — that's because the president has promised to review the strict regulations brought in after the financial crisis, known as the dodd frank act. the dow's index of bank shares has soared 17%. mike jakeman is a global analyst at the economist intelligence unit. thank you forjoining us this morning. so much of this market growth has been delivered on a sense of expectation, hope. is it starting to look like president donald trump cannot quite strike a deal in congress the way the businessman was able to do in the commercial sector? yes, you can understand the reasons the business community were optimistic about donald trump because we had a unification of the president with a republican president and republican majorities in both houses, it looked as if it
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could be a relatively smooth passage by legislation but that overlooks the fact that could —— —— club is not a traditional mainstream republican and the party itself is quite ideological split. we have seen this with the help depot, there are moderate politicians whose constituents have been using obamacare constituents have been using obamaca re the years, constituents have been using obamacare the years, they are keen to keep as much as what they have been using on the table as possible, then there are the right wing who are obviously ideological opposed to obamacare and want the whole thing god. trump is in the middle of this trying to get it through as tricky as he can, losing votes on one side, gaining on the other. repealing obamacare gaining on the other. repealing obamaca re was central to gaining on the other. repealing obamacare was central to his campaignfor obamacare was central to his campaign for the presidency. if he cannot deliver on this, that will spook the market in terms of delivering on tax cuts, promised infrastructure spending. if you cannot deliver, what will that mean? i would not be too worried about that yet. for a start, we knew there would be problems with getting things through congress because of the way the party is split, and
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health ca re care is a divisive issue. we might find there is a greater sense of harmony in the party on, for example, tax cuts, so we will see an issue by issue struggle, some things will go through congress quickly because there is unification between the administration and the party. other things, issues that are really central to american life, will prove more divisive. we were talking in the green room, you can pack a new president to a new car, as soon as you drive off the forecourt the value depreciate. this is his opportunity to act, would you expect him to have delivered more by now? he has been sold a hospital pass by paul ryan on this, health care is the first issue they have tackled and it is a tough start for a new president, an issue that has dogged american presidents back to the 19405, american presidents back to the 1940s, so too are expected to be sold and legislated in a couple of months is quite a tough line. i think we will see a better pace of progress in the coming months when
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they tackle issues that are not quite as difficult. briefly, do you think it will pass today? not necessarily today but in the next few weeks they will get something through. thank you for your time. that is the focus for the markets, we will talk more about that later. let's look at some of the stories. twitter is considering adding a paid membership option for businesses and power users. the micro—blogging service, which has struggled to grow its user base in recent years, is carrying out surveys to "assess interest" in the idea. but it has not made any indication it is considering charging regular users. twitter‘s active user base has plateaued, and advertising revenues, currently the firms only meaningful income stream, are in decline. send us your thoughts on this via twitter, if you like, and we will share them with you later. the chinese premier li keqiang has said allies will not have to choose between favoring china and the united states, despite tensions between the two super—powers. he was speaking during a visit to
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australia where he oversaw the signing of bilateral trade agreements. australia is china's biggest export market. the european lender credit suisse raised bonuses by 6% in 2016, according to the company's latest annual report. the swiss bank recorded a loss of $2.1; billion last year, but the report said that the payouts were necessary in retaining key staff. the increase defies a recent trend towards smaller bonuses at european banks. we can see that ftse here holding steady, it has been open for almost 40 steady, it has been open for almost a0 minutes, mentioning as we had lined with, analysts keeping an eye on the vote by us lawmakers on health care, a key test of donald trump's political agenda, so much expectation and hope built up in the markets. if he cannot get this through, what will that mean? it's been another tense day for electronics giant samsung. it has been facing investors at its annual general meeting. the company's leader,
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grandson of the founder and vice—chairman jay y lee, wasn't there. he's facing trial on charges of bribery and embezzlement — which he denies — in a corruption scandal that has seen president park geun—hye impeached. tim mcdonald is in singapore for us. it would have been interesting to be a fly on the wall at that agm? yes, there was a big restructure on the table and for the moment they seem to have put it aside. samsung group shares were down, the flagship samsung electronics lost the red .7% while other divisions lost considerably more than that. the restructure is not off the table entirely but seems it will not be a simple and straightforward process. it has been a difficult year for on a number of levels, there has of course been that scandal and on top of lets not forget the samsung
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galaxy note seven battery issue which of course was connected to recall because in some cases those batteries overheated and caught fire but you have to remember the sell—off is coming of record high partly due to the semiconductor business which has gone along quite nicely, seemingly unaffected by everything else that has happened samsung this year. for now, tim, thank you very much indeed. let's look at the markets the world. it has been an interesting session, injapan we saw gains because the yen weakened a liberal versus the dollar but it was not a huge amount, enough to give japan a bit of a boost, it has had a torrid week this week mainly because of the weakening dollar and of course the markets are not sure where to head this week with concern that we mentioned about donald trump's ability to pass through law. let's look at europe trading, they are alla let's look at europe trading, they are all a little bit flat, slight losses. we will discuss those in more detail in a moment.
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let's look ahead to what is happening on wall street. the mir hussein has more. financial markets here in the us are set for another day of looking for direction from washington. the failure of the republican congress to bring its healthcare bill to a vote on thursday didn't do wonders for the market's belief that the trump administration can follow through on its economic agenda. more delays, or a failure of the legislation, might give wall street another knock on friday. still, investors will also have some key economic data to look at, and there's possibly a greater certainty of good news there. orders for durable goods, those are longer—lasting manufactured items, are expected to have seen another rise in february, this time of about i.2%. a closely—watched survey of sentiment among managers in the manufacturing sector is also expected to post a decent increase. joining us is lucy macdonald, cio, global equities
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at allianz global investors. thank you for coming in this morning. a lot going on for the market, the big focus is the vote happening in the states today but we have had movement with oil as well, something playing on the markets. with oil, it has been one of the big drivers of the recovery in the market, so we have had the trump rally but also a recovery in the oil price as well, and that has really been because of cuts agreed with opec. although those cuts have taken place, it does seem that the expectation that the oil price will go expectation that the oil price will 9° up expectation that the oil price will go up has meant that the credit going into the shale industry in the us has kept its pumping and therefore you have got higher infant ‘s and so that is now pushing down on the oil price so it is going to be an interesting time for opec to
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decide whether they need to do more cuts all give more confidence that the cuts will be of a longer duration. there is an opec meeting this weekend so the price of oil is going to be sensitive in the run—up to that and probably early next week. give us your reflection on this week for the markets, it has been a funny one because last week it was about central bank action with the fed, meeting with many other central banks around the world. this week has been unusual with today, the big focus this afternoon, is in the united states? it is the first week with a i% fall in the market on tuesday, the first time for 100 days, so markets have been incredibly complacent, the fear indexis been incredibly complacent, the fear index is extremely low. it is a very complicated index in its construction but what it is showing you is the expectations about volatility going forward. that has
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gone up volatility going forward. that has gone up a volatility going forward. that has gone up a bit? no, that has gone low, so there is a lot of complacency in the market, so over the last six months we have seen spikes in this index with brexit and then with the election, but it has come down to very low levels now, so you have a very strong market with low volatility and that suggests complacency, so this week having the first 1% fall in the market suggests it is just the first crack in that complacency, and that is why this vote is so important, because of the importance of the whole trump agenda of progress, pro—inflation, to keep the rally going. if there is expectation that the tax reform in particular won't get through in time, that will mean this whole trade and the basis of it is question. 0k, trade and the basis of it is question. ok, you will be back to do the papers at the end of the programme. thank you for now. lots more to come
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in the programme, including, are more robots good for the economy? hour of every human economics editor will be here to explain all. —— our very human editor. you're with business live from bbc news. in the uk, providers may have to start compensating customers if landline and broadband repairs are too slow. ofcom proposes customers getting refunds if broadband isn't set up on the day it was promised, or if an engineer doesn't turn up for an appointment. theo leggettjoins us now. what is the reaction to this? this is a consultation which will carry on untiljune and we will not get concrete proposals from ofcom until the end of the year, but it is a significant move. ofcom say around 5.6 million people every year lose access to their landline or broadband, and that this isn't rectified quickly enough. apparently every year about 250,000 appointments with engineers are missed, the engineer simply doesn't
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turn up, and ofcom says that is not good enough. also when people want landline or broadband installed, there are often delayed there, so it stays there would be an automatic entitlement to compensation, whether that be cash payment or reduction in bill, and this will result in payment of about £185 million per year. incidentally it is only landline and broadband customers, not mobile customers because a p pa re ntly not mobile customers because apparently mobile customers do get compensated quite well in most cases, whereas when it comes to landlines it is only in about 15% of cases and ofcom says compensation is ad hoc and simply often not adequate. has there been any reaction from the industry? i have not personally seen any but i suspect there will be because the industry itself has come up with proposals to rectify this. bt, virgin media, they have come together and put out proposals but ofcom says they don't go far enough so it is back to the drawing board
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for them. 0k, for them. ok, thank you. lots of other stories online, as ever we can't fit them all. portsmouth and exeter‘s new boss to hold takeover talks. this is chief executive michael eisner. they are holding exclusive takeover talks according to bbc business. trying to think of appropriate disney movie titles! bank branches inevitably in the firing line as banks go more digital. the high—street bank or branch as it work could become a thing of the past. read about it online. our top story, as president trump struggles to get health care reforms through us congress, concerns grow amongst investors about he will be able to deliver the
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economic boost he promised. now, let's have a quick look at the markets. they are pretty flat, to be honest. i would markets. they are pretty flat, to be honest. iwould imagine markets. they are pretty flat, to be honest. i would imagine as we get news out of the united states about the vote in congress on obamacare or the vote in congress on obamacare or the affordable health care act as it's officially known, will see some movement. having said that these markets in europe may be closed by then but we will keep you up—to—date. and now let's get the inside track. the uk's pm theresa may is to trigger article 50 next wednesday, officially notifying the european union that the uk is leaving. and jobs will change rather than disappear over the next decade as robots are increasingly used in the world of work. a couple of interesting reports are out on that this week as well. let's discuss all of this with our economics editor kamal ahmed. good morning. let's talk some big figures. i think it is a moment to
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ta ke figures. i think it is a moment to take stock to an extent. this weekend in italy sees the marking of the 60th anniversary of the birth of what was the european economic commission. and to say at this moment, it has achieved a huge amount. we sometimes forget this was to stop war, which was successful. it integrated after the fall of the berlin wall, after the fall of communism across eastern europe. it launched a single currency relatively successfully. any people believe. we've got to a stage where there is this new fracture. britain is about to trigger article 50 to leave the european union, and both the finance minister of germany and jean—claude juncker have spoken about what the rest of europe will
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look like. john claude inker spoke to our editor and had this to say —— john claude yunker. we will be sad, as i was sad when the referendum took place in britain. for me, it is a tragedy. i'm everything but in a hostile mood, when it comes to britain. we'll negotiate in a frank way, in a fair way, and are not naive. there he is saying it's not about punishment, slight softening of the language of the negotiations start. also making clear we aren't naive. the european union 27 that are left in the european union want to ensure that whatever the dealers, and it should be a reasonable one they think, it can't be better than being in the european union. i think that's going to be where the tension is. much does britain have to pay in
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to be part of any european union structures, to retain access to the single market. that will be where the real battles are. something else you been writing about this week is robots. the possibility of artificial intelligence meaning that manyjobs as we know them now will be not done by humans. two interesting reports, one from germany and one from the uk on our future work. if you think about the big trends coming in western developed economies particularly but also other emerging economies, it is the use of artificial intelligence and robots. the german study makes and robots. the german study makes an interesting point. the two groups of workers who are somewhat protected from the ai revolution are high skilled, human facing tight jobs like health care for example, and lower skilled what it describes as dextrous jobs. where and lower skilled what it describes as dextrousjobs. where human ability to work in teams is very important. the ones at risk are what you might describe as the middle
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management, data processing, middle of typejobs. management, data processing, middle of type jobs. those are the jobs that will disappear. the uk study says up to 30% of alljobs can be done by robots or artificial intelligence within the next decade. but it does say that will increase productivity and increased economic wealth. and also there will be a whole new set ofjobs around technology and the type of work you do, which means thesejobs technology and the type of work you do, which means these jobs aren't simply lost from the system, but just like we found with the industrial revolution when everyone said everyone is going to stop farming, actually we replace those jobs with high manufacturing level jobs with high manufacturing level jobs in cities. that's what they a lwa ys jobs in cities. that's what they always promised, there's a whole new range ofjobs always promised, there's a whole new range of jobs coming. always promised, there's a whole new range ofjobs coming. it always promised, there's a whole new range of jobs coming. it does tend to happen. economies are actually very good at creating work. if we look at the levels of work in the uk at the moment, it's incredibly high. employment levels in the uk are almost at a record. economies are very good at replacing olderjobs
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with new types of jobs. thank you. stay in your human form, please!|j could stay in your human form, please!” could be a robot, who knows! i can confirm he is not! laughter now, many of you who are watching in the uk may be aware that today is red nose day. it's a chance to raise money for charities that help people here in the uk and across africa by doing something funny. since its launch in 1988, it's raised hundreds of millions of dollars. so to raise more i persuaded one of our regular guests, economistjeremy cook, to part with his beard. last thoughts, final comments? please don't cut my ears off! i'll try my best! all right, so here we go. look at that. there you go, that's the halfway mark. applause. i think we need a photo! laughter. the second half. i think we're done! applause. congratulations!
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you look like a new man. what a sport. i feel cold! thank you so much. i feel naked! and thank you everybody for donating to red nose day. applause. it took years of him! it did. he's had that beard for eight years. so far online he's raised, through that very brave act, £16a2. i'm going to tweet the sponsorship link if you wa nt to tweet the sponsorship link if you want to boost it. lucy has joined us to discuss some of the paper stories. we mentioned twitter may be considering paired membership. —— paid membership. one viewer says more pay walls coming to the web, and other way the companies to make dollars. another viewer says, i would take down my account if this happened. lucy, are you a fan of
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twitter? i read it but i don't tweet. there are people and organisations that it's worth keeping track of, isn't it? some of them are very prolific in terms of making venues known. yes. as far as the pay model is concerned, i think it's quite difficult to go from free to paid. you could try a premium model like spotify has where you start free and then you start paying a little, and then you have a bit more flexibility about it. if you just start trying to charge people things, people will switch off and try something else. also in the news is the french elections. the latest bit of information you can see that the defence minister is defecting from the left to join the independent candidate emmanuel macron. it would seem emmanuel macron. it would seem emmanuel macron is getting more momentum by the day. this is a big story for markets right across europe, this risk. it is, and there is a huge
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focus on how populism is doing across europe and in france in particular. we are just coming up to april and may. it is looking closer now. a neck and neck between marine le pen and emmanuel macron, certainly in the first round. then in the second we don't know what will happen. but it does look much closer. therefore, less concern as far as markets are concerned. you can see that partly in the way the european markets are beginning to perform better, as that populism fear is receding. lucy mcdonald, thank you forjoining us. that's it from business live today. i think ithink our i think our guests will be nervous now i've been shaving off beards! see goodbye. once again it was quite a cloudy
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start for the southern half of the british isles. quite a bit of sunshine around today, once we get rid of some of the early cloud. you'll see it comes in two batches, a frontal system close by the southern counties of england and a frontal system close by to the northern areas of scotland. in between, a lot of fine, dry weather in prospect for the rest of the day. even in some of those cloudy areas i'm hopeful that as we get on through the afternoon, some of the cloud will begin to them. it should stop raining across the greater part of the south—west, not that the rainbow had been that extensive. there will be more brightness around, perhaps. still a there will be more brightness around, perhaps. stilla keen there will be more brightness around, perhaps. still a keen breeze coming in, tempering the feel of the day. once we are away from the south—western quarter, wales, the midlands, east anglia and the south—east, coming into northern ireland, much of the north and much of scotland, dry, finance funny. until we get to the north of
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scotland, more cloud and breeze and the prospect of rain. having had so much sunshine under those clear skies during the day, we keep the clear skies by night. that will have the effect of having those temperatures dip away. especially so in the countryside, where there will bea in the countryside, where there will be a widespread frost. at least that converts into a really lovely start to the day on saturday, with that high pressure very much the dominant feature of the greater part of the british isles. still if you i say bars across the northern half of scotla nd bars across the northern half of scotland and in the south. the breeze quite noticeable across southern areas but there you are. that's really not bad. it's a saturday, i hope you get the chance to enjoy it. at best temperatures in sheltered western spots, 16—17 celsius is possible. if you are fully exposed to the onshore breeze, coming in from a pretty cold north sea, you may be closer to 8—9. don't forget as we move out of saturday
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into sunday, those clocks leap forward by one hour. i'm sure somebody is going to forget. there's a lwa ys somebody is going to forget. there's always some comedy value in that. on sunday it self, high—pressure still the dominant feature but maybe a bit ofa the dominant feature but maybe a bit of a change to some central and eastern areas where we could see more cloud. the temperatures are still into the teens for many. hello, it's friday, it's 9am, i'm joanna gosling — welcome to the programme. more details emerge of the man who carried out the westminster terror attack. khalid masood was born adrian russell ajao in dartford, in kent. we'll ask how the 52—year—old was converted to radical islam. in the past hour, police say they've made two further significant arrests overnight and are trawling through massive amounts of computer data. they urge the public to help them. we've had contact with about 3500 witnesses, including 1000 people from westminster bridge,
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