syrian observers now say that at least 112 people died in yesterday's suicide bomb attack, on a convoy of buses carrying people from besieged towns. voting is under way in turkey in a landmark referendum that will determine whether president erdogan will be granted sweeping new powers. now on bbc news, it's dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline. this week, we learnt three things from president trump — that he is prepared to wield a global stick, to be precise the "mother of all sticks", that nato isn't obsolete, and that the united states needs

to condemn china a little less and hug it a little more, not least to help deal with a little problem called north korea. and after this weekend's massive show of military might by pyongyang and that regime's bellicose posturing, how should we interpret president trump's words, "the problem will be taken care of"? with me to help dissect donald trump's thinking and, later, to talk about another president, mr erdogan of turkey, are abdel bari atwan, who writes on arab affairs, henry chu, who's international editor of variety magazine, the political commentator yasmin alibhai—brown, and the russian broadcaster alexander nekrassov. welcome to you all. what an extraordinary weekend. henry, what is the normal trump doctrine of foreign policy? are you any clearer now? i don't think any of us knows if there is any coherent policy going on, if it cannot be expressed in 140 characters. that is how this man governs. he will say in a news conference

that russia—us relations are at an all—time low, then tweets that there will be everlasting peace. he told us health care would be replaced by something great. we cannot divine anything from the policy of the last week or so. i think his own attention span is actually fairly limited. he flip—flops, although he would call it a reversal. he flip—flops, although he won't call it a reversal. he is also going to be tied in terms of improving relations with russia by the domestic political scene in the us. we have people in our legislature, in congress and senate, who are on both sides of the aisle, quite implacably opposed to russia, or feel it is a destabilising force. there are also his own woes of being investigated, people in his administration being too closely tied to russia before and during the election campaign. he has to tread carefully. as we have seen, it is impossible to actually figure out what an articulated policy from him is because he does not speak that way.

what are they saying in moscow after rex tillerson's visit, after all these other events, weapons in syria, russian blame, concerns about north korea? what are they saying about trump? how do they perceive him? do they have a handle on him? first of all, i think trump is sounding erratic. he inherited a mess from obama. let's put it this way, obama did not deal with syria. he did not deal with north korea. he has forgotten about that. he was more preoccupied with sending drones. in russia, the understanding is that trump is under huge pressure in america from all over the place. for his comments about russia during the election campaign. there is a bit of sympathy for him, almost? sympathy on the one hand, but on the other hand, he did make

some pretty anti—russian statements. i think the russians realise that it is not going to be a friendship. love and kisses, and so on. he is tough to deal with because he is unpredictable. that is true. but the rex tillerson talks went much better than everyone thought. president putin saw him, there was some debate over the weekend over whether he would. yasmin, do you have an clearer idea in your mind of what trump is trying to achieve? no. what is so confusing is that with the syrian bomb, so many of us, millions, billions, felt this carbuncle of syria over seven years, growing and growing on the face of the earth. in a way, you woke up to this and felt the boil had been lanced. we felt this temporary relief. but henry is right, he is a maverick.

he is unreliable. at the moment it seems he thinks he is playing some kind of computer game, getting a real thrill out of the big bangs and flashes. on the other hand, i think putin, in my view, is one of the most calculating and problematic leaders we have today. particularly... and he's been around a long time, 17 years. he is smarter than trump in some ways. part of me also worries, and i apologise if this sounds mad, whether this investigation into the trump election and the relationship between russia and trump's campaign team, is being seriously investigated. i am wondering whether there is this plot within a plot within a plot to make us think now that there won't be any hugs and kisses. i'm very confused about where we are going. but trump is a maverick and that to me is the biggest danger of all. the syria conundrum

is at the heart of this debate. we will talk about turkey later as well. we had a dramatic response, a red line was crossed. unlike president obama, trump dropped a bomb and retaliated. he also talked a lot. in terms of his approach to syria, will we now see something of a sustained engagement? will that do anything to make the peace talks in geneva go anywhere? i believe these tomahawk missile strikes killed completely the peace process in syria. really? i cannot see this peace process being reignited after these tomahawk missiles. secondly, i believe that coordination between russia and the us is coming back after the foreign secretary went to moscow. rex tillerson? yes.

i believe there are secret agreements. they told us they were disagreeing, but in fact, some of this is theatre. first, putin received rex tillerson. second, they reignited their coordination, military coordination and cooperation between the two superpowers in syria. should that be cause for optimism? at this point, as in the cold war, only the tiniest steps are being taken and can be considered improvements. we do not want deterioration, and even at the height of the cold war we had summits between presidents and ways to try to ameliorate the relationship. the hotline has been restored, or is about to be, true. i think this is a good thing, you do want engagement, you don't want a freeze on relations. but i don't hold out any great optimism that these two powers are actually coming together or even really making deals. if they do come together, it

reminds me of the first world war, where they carved up a whole continent, remember, between them. if they think they can carve up the world between them, it's not good news for the world. but what is the alternative? the alternative is to have an accident in the first base of syria. to ignite a war between the two superpowers, what are we achieving here? i believe coordination is the best way. tillerson and lavrov managed to reach some sort of understanding. that is why president putin accepted the idea of meeting tillerson and i believe what we have seen is completely different, what they agreed upon. but in syria, the tomahawk missiles did not solve any problems but created more. it did not actually topple bashar al—assad in syria. it didn't change much.

i'm surprised some people are saying the american policy towards syria has changed. it has not. it is exactly the same. trump and his administration do not want to be involved in syria. they are happy to see putin deal with isis in syria. in addition to syria and afghanistan, we had the attack this week there, us special forces also had and authorised attack in yemen in the early days of trump's presidency. trump is also attempting a bit of what used to be called gunboat diplomacy. the problem of pyongyang has, the president admitted, forced him to re—evaluate his attitude to china. a currency manipulating, us—job—destroying rival is now a much—needed ally. he's not the only one courting beijing, though. on friday, the russian foreign ministry let it be known that sergei lavrov, the boss there, had been on the telephone with wang yi, his chinese opposite number, to discuss the same thing. in terms of the north korea problem, do you think both moscow and washington are overoptimistic

about the amount of influence that china can bring to bear on north korea? first of all, i think the international community, whatever it is now, should hang its head in shame over north korea. nothing was done. the world was clinging to these resolutions of the security council, which don't work, just like they don't work in the israeli—palestinian conflict, sticking to them as if this was like a bible. no, it's not. i think trump, in a sense, is stirring up this pot. it's a good thing. suddenly, china is waking up, thinking, we need to do something. russia, which has had to have some really active policy, is waking up as well. in a sense, yes, it is dangerous, what they are doing, but it has woken up the world to the problem. something needs to be done. time to stir the pot?

it isn't. i think one of the most terrible things that has happened is the way the un has been sidelined, and actually the reason it does not work well is because members of the security council, the big thugs of the security council, refuse to do the moral thing and they have refused it over israel and refused it over syria. the point is this, i am really worried that we are talking here in terms of the big powers now. 0k, china, the ones who have the weaponry. what we used to call superpowers. actually, what happens then to the muslim countries and the guerrilla warfare that is actually now global guerrilla warfare? have they not learned anything from vietnam, that big bombs and big politics do not destroy a determined guerrilla army? i am really surprised by trump stirring these problems, now.

he is a warmonger. his popularity is going down in his own country. he is changing his mind every day. he is not consistent at all. he has no strategy, nothing, but to throw bombs. he throws missiles at syria, a failed state, the mother of all bombs in afghanistan. another failed state, those people who cannot respond. we do not know how many civilians were killed. do we think that north korea could respond ? yes. that's the interesting thing. i wish north korea would respond. no! we have had enough of this warmongering, to be honest. why trump is going there and threatening this and that, throwing bombs at muslim people, innocent people, killing them simply because he wants to show he is strong enough,

he is a new rambo. we don't want this warmongering. we want peace and obama was absolutely correct in his policy. when it comes to north korea, let's not pretend they are not warmongering as well. they are not an innocent party. do they have the capacity to deliver on the threat? in america, donald trump does have that capacity. north korea is building up its arsenal and it is certainly capable of hitting american allies, particularly seoul and japan. it is cause for concern. there's a line of thought that this maverick quality of donald trump, his unpredictable nature is reaping good results because it keeps the world on its toes. i'm not saying i subscribe to that, but there is this line of thought. the problem is you have two mavericks now, kim jong—un and donald trump. when you have two in this explosive environment, i'm afraid of what can go wrong. you don't know who will blink... and you've got putin, and remember, pakistan now has a nuclear weapon. india does, too. we will be dead. israel as well! please say israel as well. they

don't discuss it but it's widely known, yes. one of the things that really frightens me is because of this posturing and this maverick dropping of bombs, because of russia's role in syria, and iran's role as well, we will get into a third world war without even knowing it. and it will be the end. the third world war is not an the cards. nuclear weapons prevent this war. you still believe they provide the stability? of course. what about north korea? i don't understand this call for getting rid of them. the point is un did nothing about north korea for decades. in terms of what happens now... when have they ever done the right things in any part of the world? let's not forget, that this north korean so—called military potential is a peasant village. nobody is going to fight for kim jong—un in north korea. if they realise that the threat is real of an attack, they will run.

how serious is the suggestion that china can rein in north korea? this is the other interesting point. moscow and washington seem to assume that, london certainly thinks china has that degree of influence. does it? i think it has a certain amount of leverage. the historic ties between china and north korea are described in beijing as lips and teeth. its actual ability now, especially with kim jong—un who is a lot more unstable and unreliable than his father and grandfather, has complicated things. you have donald trump being schooled by the chinese president, after ten minutes, realising it is notjust a matter of china ordering north korea what to do. china does have power when it comes to oil. that is how north korea keeps its economy going. it is not without leverage, but to think china can actually dictate to north korea is a mistake. isn't it good?

i'm not a big fan of the way china is in terms of freedom and so on, but is it not good that china is coming across as the wise old man of this world? it is not going in for this histrionic politics, which will take us to the edge. we need wise men. we need people... that's what i'm saying. and women! we need wise leaders. yes. women and men, whoever. we don't need warmongering. we don't need that. but these wise men did not do anything with north korea for decades. that is the problem. something has to be done. there is one problem nobody talks about, south korea. they are provoking north korea all the time. now there's an interesting thought. nobody talks about this at all. they have all these manoeuvres on the borders, propaganda targeted at north korea. south korea is a strange

country, by the way. it's not this democracy. maybe that's one for another week. but you've brought it up at least now someone but you've brought it up at least now someone has talked about it! in ankara this weekend, another president is hoping voters will enhance his power. recep tayyip erdogan has called a referendum on whether he should become an executive president, abolishing the post of prime minister and, say his critics, removing existing checks on his power. perhaps surprisingly, in a country where he's cowed the opposition, locked up many critics, including journalists, and has been turkey's dominant political figure for more than a decade, polls suggest the result will be close. is there a danger he could actually be trumped, that he could lose this vote? it seems we will have more than one trump! to be honest. the problem is this man is actually trying to revive the ottoman empire legacy. he wants to be a new sultan. he deposed and he sacked everybody

who was opposing him. 100,000,140,000 people sacked from their jobs under the pretext of martial law. the failed military coup. 50,000 people arrested. extraordinary figures. about a8,000 arrested. now he divided the country, the country is completely divided. he is surrounded by enemies. all over, everybody around turkey is the enemy of turkey. iran, syria, greece. romania, bulgaria. even russia are not really at ease with him now because of... they patched things up. even the economy of this country, the erdogan legacy, he was elected simply because he presented himself as a moderate muslim. a democratic man. a very progressive development, a good economy.

now if you look at the situation, he is not democratic, he is arresting journalists more than mozambique, for example, orzimbabwe, again the economy is going down. the lira has lost almost 50% of its value. the development of... my turn to speak. let me finish. no, my dentist the! i want to be equal with you. no, my dentist the! i want to be equalwith you. i will let no, my dentist the! i want to be equal with you. i will let you back i believe, honestly, we do not know what will happen in this referendum. he is already sacking ministers. 0k, ok, you said it. my turn! i think we have to go back and look at some of the things and try and understand. one thing we always used to say in africa, leaders use democracy to get elected then clung on. now we see it happens everywhere. everywhere. the thing is, when turkey was a secular democracy,

a muslim country with a secular constitution, it had all these very well—placed safety nets, freedoms. it's when that path went towards the islamification of turkey... i am a muslim, i do not want the islamification of secular countries like turkey. this is where we have ended up. it is the combination of using religion to divide people, so the secularists and the so—called islamists, not islamists, but muslim state believers. then to take away journalists, academics, all critics. it's a terrible thing. if the eu had accepted turkey into the eu club, i think ten years ago, when obama was asking them, we might be in a different place. does the prospect of a sultan in ankara worry washington? after all, turkey is a very important player in nato.

which is why we haven't seen such a strong condemnation out of the obama administration or the trump administration to this point. turkey is a member of nato and has been a bulwark for the us. they are treading very carefully. they are treading very carefully. they have made some comments about human rights abuses that are clearly going on. but they have stayed out of the referendum, they have not made any intimations as to whether they think it is a good idea or bad idea. i think they will just let that one run as it will. what i am afraid of and what we are seeing in turkey is indeed somebody who is centralising all power in himself, who sees enemies around every corner, and the things he was elected to do, foremost to develop the economy, have gone sour. we also have a president who is acting like an executive president already. let's not pretend he does not hold the power. even though he is supposedly ceremonial. russia did its best to have good relations with turkey. even after they shot

down russian planes, even after that outrageous, i would say, murder of the russian ambassador, russia did not respond in a way i would have responded, to be honest with you. not yet. for the ambassador, they should have been punished. that was outrageous. all the problems erdogan has are of his own making. his foreign policy is a disaster. it's such a pivotal country, just because of geography if nothing else. the key is nato, which does nothing to influence his policy. does nothing, never said a word about the quashing of freedoms, the journalists sent to prison. we are very critical of him. come on. it's not real. they should have sanctioned them for this. what he is doing, sanctions

should have been used. i think he will get away with anything. for a russian to start talking about human rights abuses makes me laugh out loud! why not? the number of prisoners in russian prisons! don't compare the two. but i do, actually. that might be an argument for another day. in terms of if he loses, what difference will that make? will that be the beginning of the end for erdogan? i think he will be more aggressive and he will try to come back after nine months, as the constitution says. he could have another referendum, exactly what happened when he lost the election, the majority in parliament, he called for another election and he managed to create a new alliance with the nationalist movement. that's interesting. the secular side in terms of politics almost seems to have given up the ghost. the opposition is in disarray there.

and it has been for years. which makes it all the more incredible to me that in the polls, it shows this referendum is close. you would think with the intimidation going on against the no campaign, and the fact that journalists have been purged, the media are completely in the hand of this administration, you would think it would show overwhelming support for his being given these powers. but it's not. but secularism is such a deep part of turkish life and history. people really grew up on it. to see their country becoming like iran is a terrible shock. the problem is, this man will be there. he wants a mandate to do everything he wants. if he does not have this mandate, by this referendum he is going to impose martial law

and his will on his own people. i believe turkey will be more divided, and the economy will suffer more. so win or lose, it will be worth? is the solution, therefore, since you say it will be a worse situation if he were to lose, is it better that he wins it? i can't see how that would be a great outcome. it wouldn't change. the man is another sultan, he wants to behave like that. we will know the result by the beginning of the week. thank you for being with us. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. you can, of course, comment on the programme on twitter @bbcshaunley. goodbye. it gives you lots to think about,

doesn't it? lots to think about with the weather as well because in the mix we have thrown some rain into areas that have not seen a lot of rainfora areas that have not seen a lot of rain for a while. this is the way it is looking at the moment across northern and western parts of the british isles, rather murky fair. it has been and continues to be, for some, that glorious. weather watch is doing us proud yet again. where is doing us proud yet again. where is the cloud and rain coming from? coming the long way round, a big area of high pressure, plunging its way from west north—west, to east south—east, gradually through the course of the day. some of you on twitter have been asking where the rain is. it always was going to be a slow old to do to get the rain down and across from northern ireland and the west of scotland across the north of england and the midlands and on towards east anglia. it a lwa ys and on towards east anglia. it always was going to be a bit sparse across the south. where we have seen more rain than we were expecting is across the north—western quarter of scotland. i think by, what shall we

say? mid afternoon, tea—time if you are lucky, maybe having in easter treat, it will have just about got south of the border, leaving a scattering of showers. northern ireland will improve as well but where it won't improve is if you are stuck underneath that, seven or 8 degrees could be yours. as i said, it was never going to be that wet across parts of the south—west or indeed the southern parts of wales. the old spot something on the breeze but brightness as well and the rain eventually may get towards kent but i think it is likely to be a feature more towards the north of london. through the evening and overnight, chile across the north. some showers wintry to quite low level. still relatively mild in the south. but, and it is quite a significant but, easter monday is not too grim but what i am pointing out is with a northerly breeze by this stage, we will start to pull in the cold air which is sitting to the north of scotla nd which is sitting to the north of scotland ever further south. it comes in behind this weather feature. snow on that and in the

showers following behind. elsewhere, a mixture of sunny spells and showers for holiday monday at easter time, not too bad at all. some sunshine breaking through. temperatures in the south not really suffering at this stage but if we keep that process going and drag that feature ever further south, during the evening and overnight, it allows the skies to clear and in comes the cold air and there you go. it was very warm last weekend for some but this weekend, as we conclude and then on into the forthcoming nights, frost and sunny spells as well. this is bbc news. the headlines at midday. north korea has made a failed attempt to test a missile, hours before the us vice—president mike pence arrived in south korea. theresa may urges unity over brexit, as she delivers her first easter message as prime minister. 0ur shared interests, our shared ambitions, and above all our shared values can and must bring us together. the evacuation of besieged towns

in syria has resumed, following yesterday's suicide attack targeting evacuees. more than 100 people were killed. also in the next hour, turkey goes to the polls in a landmark referendum. president erdogan cast his vote this morning in a bid to bring in new sweeping powers that could keep him in office potentially