tv Outside Source BBC News April 18, 2017 9:00pm-9:31pm BST
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i'm ros atkins. welcome to outside source. the uk is heading to the polls for the third time in three yea rs. polls for the third time in three years. i have just polls for the third time in three years. i havejust chaired polls for the third time in three years. i have just chaired a meeting of the cabinet where we agreed that the government should call a general election to be held on the 8th of june. theresa may says she wants a new mandate before brexit negotiations begin. her opponents, though, have other ideas.” negotiations begin. her opponents, though, have other ideas. iwelcome the opportunity for us to put the case to the people of britain. now is the time for scotland's voice to be heard. we're prepared for an election that we thought was going to happen. donald tusk is saying brexit is now like a hitch cock film, an earthquake followed by ever rising tension. we hearfrom other eu big hitters too. we report from all over the uk. we know for some of you it's not the news you wanted to hear. not another one! 0h, you it's not the news you wanted to hear. not another one! oh, for god's sake. i can't honestly, i can't stand this. those of you who can't stand this. those of you who can't stand it and are going to carry on
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watching, if you have questions, we know lots of you do, send them my way. we will get into them through the hour. e—mail, find us on social media and the hashtag is bbc os. ever since she became prime minister, theresa may has said there will be no early election. well, she's changed her mind. earlier she explained her reasons why. she's changed her mind. earlier she explained her reasons whyli she's changed her mind. earlier she explained her reasons why. i have just chaired a meeting of the cabinet, where we agreed that the government should call a general election to be held on the 8th of june. i want to explain the reasons for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the british people when you come to vote in this election. last summer, after
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the country voted to leave the european union, britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership. since i became prime minister, the government has delivered precisely that. the prime minister went on to address the issue of disunity in westminster.- this moment of enormous national significance, there should be unity here in westminster. but instead, there is division. the country is coming together but westminster is not. in recent weeks, labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the european union. the liberal democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a stand still. the scottish national party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals britain's membership of the european union.
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and unelected members of the house of lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. our opponents believe because the government's majority is so small, that our resolve will weaken and that they can resolve will weaken and that they ca n force resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. they are wrong. not everyone would agree with the prime minister's analysis that the country is coming together, nor that westminster will be united after this election. we shall have to wait for the election results. we do know the next scheduled vote had beenin do know the next scheduled vote had been in 2020, but the new date, as the prime minister told us isjune 8th, under seven weeks away. for that to happen, we need to see a two thirds vote in the house of commons tomorrow. as the opposition labour party agrees with the plan, it's going to happen. that issue and many other issues raised by the prime minister's announcement can be found on the bbc news website, where there's comprehensive coverage on
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there's comprehensive coverage on the app as well. you can send us questions through the hour, the e—mail, hashtag and our social media contacts e—mail, hashtag and our social media co nta cts a re e—mail, hashtag and our social media contacts are on screen throughout. let's go live to westminster. christian fraser is there. christian, has it sunk in yet for eve ryo ne christian, has it sunk in yet for everyone at westminster? they're all on their starter‘s blocks. i don't think they can quite believe it, no. most of them, particularly within the conservative ranks, suspected that she would look at it more closely given the polls, still they had no word that she was going to call an election this morning. certainly they were saying the prime minister has a poker face for us. -- pokerface, ros. minister has a poker face for us. -- poker face, ros. it's minister has a poker face for us. -- pokerface, ros. it's been interesting seeing how the different parties are fighting this election on different platforms. they're focussing on different issues. yes, they are. that's going to be the really interesting thing. first off, the conservatives as you heard from theresa may will campaign on leadership and making brexit work. of course, the liberal democrats who are opposed to brexit, they will campaign the other way and looking to target the remain voters. the
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conundrum has been for the labour party. we heard from jeremy corbyn, the opposition labour leader in birmingham today. he talked about housing and education, and the nhs and those are key and very important issues for people on the doorstep, of course. he didn't mention brexit. all those things really could be affected by brexit. brexit is very much the elephant in the room. he's going to have to address the issue at some point. it's not that easy for some of the labour mpds. because some of them voted remain and some of them are in brexit constituencies. so it is labour, when you look at those three parties first in england, that are going to have the biggest challenge on the doorstep. then of course, you look at the snp? scotland, who are very much the commanding voice in scotla nd much the commanding voice in scotland with 59 seats. they will be campaigning on independence, you would expect. certainly the independence idea will come into the campaign, perhaps the other parties will want to bring that into the debate as well. yes all the different parties voting on different parties voting on different issues. we've got a
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question from rohit in india, is the fa ct question from rohit in india, is the fact the prime minister is calling this election evidence that she's failed to build a good enough consensus for her programme? no, for me, as you said, two weeks ago, before the recess, she was saying she didn't want an election. then she didn't want an election. then she went walking in the welsh hills and somehow changed her mind. three things will have played on her mind, first of all, the polling. we can't trust polling, not absolutely. but the polling at the moment is so overwhelmingly in her favour and she will have taken that into account. as you heard from her there, she has a small majority. when it comes to the brexit negotiation, there will have to be compromise, but some of her backbenchers within her own party don't want her to compromise. she has a bigger majority. that sort of problem goes away. the third thing, you will know this from your time in brufrlz recently, is that when she goes to face up the other 27 european leaders, she is the only one that has not got the mandate from the people. she was shoved in
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after the referendum vote, but she's not had the green card from the british people. that will certainly strengthen her hand if she has a majority and she puts what she wants from brexit in the conservative party manifesto, she can stand at the dispatch box here across the road and say, this is what they voted for and she can do the same thing when she goes to brussels. christian, thank you for the moment. mentioning brussels, we are live there later. now let's look at some of the contenders in this election. theresa may, the prime minister, she leads the conservatives. jeremy corbyn leads the opposition labour party. tim farron leads the liberal democrats, another opposition party. then there's nicola sturgeon of the scottish national party. we've got to think about the green party, who say they welcome this announcement. join us to fight for a fewer chore to be proud of. we've heard from the uk independence party saying, "we welcome this, but make no mistake, it's driven by labour's weakness, not the good of the country." here's how it's standing in the bbc poll of
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polls. you can see the conservatives way out ahead on 43%. labour on 25, ukipii, the way out ahead on 43%. labour on 25, ukip ii, the greens 4, the snp 5 and the lib dems io. ukip ii, the greens 4, the snp 5 and the lib dems 10. we will speak to a pollster in a little while. all the opposition parties are saying they welcome this election. let's hear from jeremy corbyn. i welcome the opportunity for us to put the case to the people of britain, to stand up to the people of britain, to stand up against this government and its failed economic agenda, which has left our nhs in problems, which has left our nhs in problems, which has left our nhs in problems, which has left our schools underfunded, which has left so many people uncertain. we wa nt has left so many people uncertain. we want to put a case out there for the people of britain of a society that cares for all, an economy that works for all and a brexit that works for all and a brexit that works for all and a brexit that works for all. that's labour, right after the announcement, the lib dem leader took to twitter to say, "this is your chance to change the direction of your country." he went straight into campaign mode in truro in the south—west of england. straight into campaign mode in truro
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in the south-west of england. it's an opportunity for the people of this country to change the direction of this country, to decide that they do not want a hard brexit, they want to keep britain in the single market. and indeed, it's an opportunity for us to have a decent, strong opposition in this country that we desperately need. next nicola sturgeon, first minister of scotland. here she is on twitter, "the tories see a chance to move the uk to the right forced through a ha rd uk to the right forced through a hard brexit and impose deeper cuts. let's sta nd hard brexit and impose deeper cuts. let's stand up for scotland." and as all major politicians have been today, she's been talking as well. clearly, she sees the opportunity given the total disarray in the ra nks given the total disarray in the ra n ks of given the total disarray in the ranks of the labour party to crush all opposition to her, to get rid of people that disagree with her and to give herself a free hand to take the country in the increasing right—wing direction she wants to take it in. that would mean notjust the hardest possible brexit but more austerity and deeper cuts. now is the time for scotland's voice to be heard and for
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people in scotland to stand up for the kind of country we want scotland to be and that's the campaign that i look forward to leading in the weeks ahead. now this is where we are at the moment: the conservatives have 101 more seats than labour in the house of commons. when you factor in all the other parties, that adds up toa all the other parties, that adds up to a i2—seat majority in the all the other parties, that adds up to a 12—seat majority in the 2015 election. i should say the conservatives have got 6% more of the popular vote than labour. these are the results from at the time. ukip performed well, over 12%. the liberal democrats close to 8%, snp under 5% and the greens on 3%. looking ahead, here's the analysis of one of the top polling experts in the uk, john curtis and how he sees this race panning out. it is quite difficult these days for either party to actually win a land slide in the house of commons, because not only is northern ireland now out of the uk—wide political picture, so also is scotland. i would be surprised if the snp don't hang onto most of the seats north of the
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border that they won two years ago. secondly, although the labour party are ina secondly, although the labour party are in a dire position in the opinion polls, a lot of the seats that they have are safe ones. the truth is therefore, if actually the opinion polls were to narrow during the course of this campaign, i think we should bear in mind in particular theresa may is very much now going for a vote conservative for my vision of brexit and that perhaps is going to make some conservative voters unhappy, if that lead were to narrow, then we could discover that she's back with a rather smaller majority than perhaps she is hoping for this morning. let's speak to bobby duffy from ipsos mori. let's deep with the question you must be asked a lot, why trust polls given the problems we've had? we had some problems, some issues with particular polls. but if you look around the world and look at the role of the polls, the results from the polls in so many countries, they're more often right than wrong. there's been really tricky contests,
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like brexit, in particular and trump in the us. where we're talking about 50/50 races where the expectations of a ccu ra cy 50/50 races where the expectations of accuracy on those polls is incredibly high. what we have now is a more healthy look at news polls, treat them with respect and treat them with caution. i was saying that this is less about the popular vote, more about how the vote breaks down in constituencies. is that how you approach polling? in the national polls that you see in the media, they're just national. they don't ta ke they're just national. they don't take account of how it breaks down into seats. we help conduct the exit poll that professor curtis runs and that's about seat projections. the ones that you see in the paper, day to day, don't tell you anything about how the seats break down, just what the national vote is saying. but that is still a crucial indicator. what you see right now is the conservative party polling on around 45%, 46% in the most recent polls. that's even after the announcement today. that is an incredible lead and it's similar to
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margaret thatcher had in 1983, when she had a major victory. it's almost exactly the same as tony blair ended up exactly the same as tony blair ended up with in1997, exactly the same as tony blair ended up with in 1997, when he had 179—seat majority. as professor curtis says, it won't happen quite like that. but you could see a three—figure majority. like that. but you could see a three-figure majority. what are the main issues in deciding which way people are going? it's leadership, who people trust with the economy. and in particular, now, brexit. brexit is tied up so much with economic success, the future of the country, those three issues, leadership, economy and brexit are the things people are most focussed on. the labour party has its work cut out if the polls are to be believed. that's a big if, but if we ta ke believed. that's a big if, but if we take those polls at face value, why is labour struggling? can we pin point particular issues it's facing? on leadership, you see theresa may polling at plus 33 in terms of views of her leadership. you seejeremy corbyn polling at minus a0. that's a
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big issue. in terms of who you trust on the economy, you have the conservatives polling three or four times the level you see with labour. on clarity of what your position on brexit, labour as we heard from the previous piece, has a real issue there, particularly in the types of seats that they represent, where the population is often very split. have you cancelled your holidays? luckily i've just been you cancelled your holidays? luckily i'vejust been on you cancelled your holidays? luckily i've just been on holiday. you cancelled your holidays? luckily i'vejust been on holiday. i'm you cancelled your holidays? luckily i've just been on holiday. i'm so pleased. good to see you. thank you very much. we will have more on theresa may's decision to hold an election coming up decision to hold an election coming up here on outside source. the uk independence party faces a major test in the general election happens as planned injune. it's almost certain to. its only member of parliament douglas carswell quit the party earlier this month. the leader described the prime
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minister's decision to soak a snap general election as the mother of all u—turns. general election as the mother of all u-turns. i actually don't think it's very good for the country. it creates instability and strange isn't it that she was saying that nicola sturgeon can't have a referendum on independence before 2020 because it would create uncertainty. a general election creates more uncertainty than anything else. however, ukip will fight it and fight it hard. ok she's invoked article 50, but the negotiations haven't even begun yet. we know that she's already back tracking over immigration. when people voted onjune 23, they voted not to control immigration but cut immigration. they are saying immigration. they are saying immigration figures will continue to be the same for ten years. that isn't what people voted for. i'm ros atkins with outside source. the british prime minister has announced that she will ask
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parliament to vote for holding a snap general election on june parliament to vote for holding a snap general election onjune 8. let's bring you some of the main stories from bbc world service. first of all, the us president, donald trump, has just signed an executive order to review a temporary visa programme placing foreign workers in usjobs. he's signed the so—called buy america hire america order on a visit to a tool factory in wisconsin. bbc chinese is reporting that america andjapan chinese is reporting that america and japan have agreed to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on north korea to abandon its nuclear programme. french security forces in marseille have arrested two suspected islamist militants, thought to have been planning a terrorist attack, before the first round of the presidential election on sunday. this on facebook, police say a man suspected of shooting a man in ohio, posting a video of the killing onto facebook, has taken his own life. steve stephens shot himself in his car after a police chase in
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pennsylvania. that's on the bbc news website. theresa may would almost certainly not be prime minister right now if it weren't for brexit. her decision to call this election is also connected to it. she says she wants a clear mandate before the brexit negotiations begin and the eu is already busy preparing for that moment. we know the 27 eu leaders meet next weekend to adopt their negotiating guidelines. european council president, donald tusk, one of the most senior figures in the eu, has been feeling descriptive today. he says: the european parliament's chief today. he says: the european pa rliament‘s chief brexit negotiating says, "the uk election is an internal affair. but clearly brexit will be the key element of it." that's certainly how the lib dems would like it to be. they're emphasising brexit. if you listen to labour today, the family i has not
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been there, it's on health, education and a fair society. so the different parties are putting their emphasis is different areas. this has come through from the german foreign minister. "uncertainty is certainly not good for relations between the eu and the uk. hopefully new elections will lead to more clarity and more predictability." i wonder ifjackie clarity and more predictability." i wonder if jackie davis clarity and more predictability." i wonder ifjackie davis thinks clarity and more predictability." i wonder if jackie davis thinks that's going to happen. she's a well known eu analyst. good to have you back. is it overly optimistic to think an election can deliver a clearer and more stable situation? well, i think there is a feeling here that it may increase the room for manoeuvre. that at the moment, theresa may is having to always talk a very tough line with the eu, if there is to be a deal at the end of these negotiations, it's going to take compromise on both sides. there has been a concern that because she didn't have her own mandate, because she had to keep her own political party happy, that was driving her to
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ta ke party happy, that was driving her to take a very tough line, go for hard brexit. there are people saying tonight, if she wins and she wins big, then she'll have the room for manoeuvre, and we may get a better dealfor both sides. manoeuvre, and we may get a better deal for both sides. others say, actually this raises the stakes. because if she doesn't get the deal she wants, she may be more willing to walk away from the talks, arguing she has a mandate to do that as well. most people here saying yes, could bring more clarity and predictability. but it is quite a risky strategy. it doesn't sound like anyone isn't expecting her not to be the prime minister in a couple of months? i think they look at the opinion polls, the way everybody does, and with that lead, the feeling is that she is taking a gamble, she believes she can win and the polls suggest she can. indeed, one of the question marks here is if it wasn't her, if it was for example, jeremy corbyn, what do we know about him? we know that the labour party is very divided. we know he was very lukewarm during the referendum campaign, so he would be very much an unknown quantity were that to happen, then the whole thing
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would be thrown into doubt and a big question mark here because the time table for these negotiations is very tight. it's only two years. the clock has already been ticking since article 50 was triggered, those divorce proceedings began. now for the moment, it doesn't matter. the eu is busy getting its own ducks in a row. they won't be ready until towards the end of may any way to start detailed negotiations. so this timing doesn't delay that process. if it were to lead to a political upheaval, and there was a lot of calculating to do after the election domestically, taking people's eye on the brexit ball, that time table could also come under immense pressure. so on balance, people feeling this doesn't need to be too disruptive. it could be a good thing. but it is a gamble and people will be watching very nervously from brussels. i know you're going to be watching carefully, this summit with the 27 leaders, not this weekend, but next. might this uncertainty over who they're going to be negotiating with affect the position that the eu adopts?”
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negotiating with affect the position that the eu adopts? i don't think so. that the eu adopts? i don't think so. the eu is very clear about what its red lines are. its fundamental principles that you cannot cherry—pick, you cannot principles that you cannot cherry-pick, you cannot have principles that you cannot cherry—pick, you cannot have the rights and benefits of membership without the responsibilities. they are going to be drawing pretty clear lines. what they will be hoping though is up until now they've not really been sure where the uk's real red lines are. they will be watching because as theresa may and other leaders set out their visions of the brexit world, what they really want, there's not been a lot of clarity on that till now. they'll be looking for clues and signs and hoping to get more of an idea. when it comes to the fundamentals of their negotiating stance, that there is a divorce bill to be paid, that we talk money first, later we will talk trade, but only later, on those basic principles i think they're going to be pretty clear and pretty tough, whoever wins the election. jackie, we always like having you, thank you very much. now, over the past few months, we
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have heard variations on this statement from theresa may many times. i'm not going to be calling a snap election. i've been very clear that i think we need that period of time, that stability to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020. now that's changed. theresa may needs to find a way to hold this election. this is a tweet from the ft‘s law and policy commentator, saying, oh, god now eve ryo ne commentator, saying, oh, god now everyone will become an expert on the fixed term parliaments act 2011. this is the worst possible outcome." what he's referring to is the law put in place by david cameron that fixed uk general elections to the first thursday of may every five yea rs. first thursday of may every five years. under this law, the next election is to 2020. let's do a bbc reality check on how theresa may might get around that commitment. the first way to do that would be to overturn the entire act, something
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that the government would be very unlikely to be able to do quickly, if at all. instead, theresa may's going to seek cross—party support foran going to seek cross—party support for an early election. we know there are for an early election. we know there a re 650 for an early election. we know there are 650 seats in the house of commons. if an early election is going to be allowed and there'll be vote on this tomorrow, wednesday, a3a m ps vote on this tomorrow, wednesday, a3a mps need to back the idea. bear in mind, all of the parties have indicated they're going to support this, importantly the labour party, which has a great many mps to put behind the government's position, has said it will support the idea. so it's very hard to think of anything but the most far fetched scenarios where this vote doesn't go through. let's bring in the bbc‘s christian fraser, live with us from westminster. christian, a few of our viewers have raised the point of — why do we have the fixed term bill if whenever you need to bypass it you can? it's interesting looking at
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your reality check there. i had the former culture secretary with me about an hour ago. he's very much feeling his way through the dark on this. he doesn't understand how it works. maybe some other people more familiar with this act could confirm to me. he seemed to suggest that the conservative side and of course they stand full square behind their government, but the conservative side to trigger this would have vote ano side to trigger this would have vote a no confidence vote in the government or at least that is what they thought. which tells you, even a former senior member of government doesn't really understand how it works and doesn't particularly like the legislation. it was introduced in 2011, incidentally, when david cameron was leading a coalition government. we'd come out of the financial crisis. what he wanted was more stability so that prime ministers couldn't call snap elections. so he would have this four or five year period with a coalition government. now it suits a conservative prime minister to rip it allup and conservative prime minister to rip it all up and say, actually let's have the snap election because we need it. one minute left, here's a question from chris. are we going to
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see the same constituencies as 2015 or with will the new proposed constituencies be used ? or with will the new proposed constituencies be used? that's a very good question. i would think the same constituencies, i'm talking here without knowing the full facts, i would think we'll see the same constituencies. we only have six weeks. so i think it would be a bit much to put all the new boundary changes and they are considerable around the country, into play in that short space of time. i think they were being geared towards 2020. i think they'll be for the next general election down—the—line. christian, thank you very much. we leave it there for a moment. we're back with christian in a few minutes. keep your questions coming. you can see the hashing it and the e—mail on the screen throughout. we'll be back in a couple of minutes with more on this election, which is coming on june 8. hello there. good evening, we are seeing some extreme weather at the
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moment across parts of europe and south asia. the link between the two is temperatures. first of all, across india, where recently the temperature has hit a5 degrees plus. this heat has arrived a good few weeks earlier than normal. we still have some heat whatever warnings on wednesday across rajasthan and into delhi. it's dry, hot and sunny here. a different story across the north—east. warm, moist air coming in. that's powering thunder storms, heifery rain, may —— heavy rain and maybe the possibility of tornadoes. it's that time of the year. those showers become fewer in dhaka by the end of the week. the temperatures across southern parts of spain and portugal will have peaked on tuesday, mid—30s. the cold air in the north and east of europe remains for a good deal longer. temperatures five to ten degrees below average for the time of year. and the growing season has started early.
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there may be impacts to crops further down—the—line. high pressure across northern europe, around it we draw in the cold air and engage this area of low pressure heading across the balkans towards the black sea. drawing down the colder air from moscow into austria, into hungary, over the alps in the next 2a hours, could be a0 centimetres of snow. these are the figures over the higher ground, these are the figures over the higherground, rain at these are the figures over the higher ground, rain at lower levels. that could be heavy and it will be accompanied by strong winds. there may be trons port disruption. anybody on holiday there, probably not having a good time, at least with the weather. we've got some sunshine, though, across eastern areas of the mediterranean. that will remain the case on thursday. but that rain and snow mix is still there around the balkans and this time, it's romania that could get the heavier falls of snow, as we head into thursday. these are the temperatures, seven berlin, significantly below average. western europe some sunshine for most, not
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as hot as it has been in southern parts of spain and portugal. here at home, gardeners take note. we had a frost last night in scotland. that cold air has pushed down into england and wales. so minus four, minus five not out of the question in the countryside. we have clear skies. sunshine to begin the day. though we will see cloud pushing down into northern england and wales. either side of that, some sunshine, but those temperatures not particularly flattering for the time of year. the outlook is on the way, are we going to find those temperatures rising? those numbers are below average for the time of year. are we going to get more chilly nights? and are we going to get rain? it's been dry for so long, particularly in the south—east. all the details coming up. hello, i'm ros atkins, this is outside source. let's look through some of the main stories here in the bbc newsroom. the uk is heading to the polls for the third times in three years.
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i have just chaired a meeting i havejust chaired a meeting of i have just chaired a meeting of the cabinet and we're greedy government should call a general election. —— and we agreed the government should call a general election. her opponents are ready. i welcome the chance to put the case to the people of britain. reaction from across the uk, our correspondents have all sent reports.
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