hello and welcome to dateline. theresa may, who became britain's prime minister less than a year ago after the country voted to leave the european union, has called a general election — three years earlier than she needed to. in brussels, they said her shock announcement was a twist worthy of hitchcock. the french have experienced quite a few plot twists of their own as the presidential election looms into view. with a crowded field of 11 candidates, a second round is likely. if so, we'll know by the end of sunday which two will go through. with me to discuss britain, france and all the rest, are alex deane, a conservative commentator, michael goldfarb writes for politico europe, agnes poirier is uk editor

of marianne in france, and polly toynbee is a columnist with the guardian. welcome to you all... thanks for being back with us. polly, we will talk a lot about theresa may and why she did it, but one thing all the commentators seem to have started this election campaign in agreement on is that this will see offjeremy corbyn. but he seems to be relishing the job of underdog. why? i think he likes elections. big rallies are his thing, is what is best at. it looks to me unlikely that he will leave, even if he thoroughly thrashed. those around him seem to be saying he's going to stay until we get a rule change will make sure that another core principles would take after, which would be at party conference in september. this is very internal labour party stuff, but there's every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly crushed, he's going to stay. he may stay, and that was perhaps

one of the reasons why theresa may might have wanted this election, to finally lands flat boil of an opposition she doesn't like. she has said she wants more authority, she wants a strong opposition. but we've seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the world. is a she's running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed? every election has a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal, it looks like there wouldn't be a better time for the prime minister to do this. jeremy corbyn has led the labour party without the confidence of his own mps for some time. he seems to lack credibility in public as a leader. i'm trying to be fair. i think he spoke well at his lunch.

but it's too late to turn around the general lack of confidence in him, notjust in the party but in the country at large. is it a case of having him for another three years? i think polly is right, i think you'll stay. jeremy corbyn is not going to suddenly be anything different. the real reason she cold it is that this is her peak moment. she will never be as popular or successful as she is now. she's going into the most difficult negotiations. we don't even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending on the elections in france and germany. she's probably going to head—on confrontation with other people in europe and her own backbenchers. whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so nothing will ever be so good for her again. so that election in 2020 would have been much harder to win. indeed, she would have come back is probably a rotten deal and at least half the population would think it was a rotten deal, whatever it was.

michael, you're reporting with the people who don't know britain. have you explaining it? there are two things. i have this image of someone saying to the stockbroker, when the price gets to such and such, cell. price gets to such and such, sell. just a few hours after the announcement was made, the financial times is running comment about how clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating something that is realistic both from a european perspective and a british perspective, on britain's detachment from the european union in two years is virtually impossible. what she has essentially done is bought herself under the eu an extra few years to work at height and tangled britain's relationship. in that respect, she may have been taking soundings from people in brussels, that one way of extending this

negotiating beaded and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because we know that in europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed further along. this may well have played into her decision as well. it's surprising she didn't call for an election before, for instance, after the astounding victory at the by—election. so it all makes sense, she is buying more time. she has a boulevard in front of, as we say french. of course, the lib dems are probably going to win a few seats and labour is good to be crushed. the snp cannot do better apart from one more seat. and of course, she only had the mandate of 200 mps before now. for brussels, is better to have a stronger british prime minister, otherwise you don't know.

and then also, within her own party, she is often been taken hostage by hard brexiteer is. now if she can say, you shut up, i have a mandate. whatever she may have said publicly and we have just take everything she says on her merits. she said seven times she wasn't going to have an election and then she changed her mind. we can't take anything she says at face value after that. but in terms of one of the things you didn't talk about, about the difficulty of selling the big city will never own party, is that part of the calculation? i think like any prime minister who was elected at a general election, she felt that lack of authority. there are times when it's dangerous not to have an election, as gordon brown showed.

the other thing about her position is not only that she'll get that sort of mandate, but also in the brexit negotiations, she will be able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the house of commons and the house of lords, but also a popular general election. it does improve her hand in the negotiations. that's only if she spells out what her negotiating position is and what her red lines are. what's really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics, gordon brown made a mistake and she's not going to make this a mistake. the real genuine politics are that we need an election when she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide weather they like the deal or weather they think it's a mistake. this is meaningless. there is nothing new. that is nothing new content to be

decided in any manifesto. we really need one when she has done the deal. this conversation reflects that the biggest danger for the prime minister is expected management, because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate will be seen to have done better than expected. which will give him the space to carry on. you are managing our expectations. i slightly disagree with poorly about putting in the manifesto what her negotiating positions are. it's actually too early. she doesn't have positions. i do think that having the election is not a bad thing. firstly because i did think... ithink... i thought gordon brown actually did make a mistake. even if he had lost, you have to stand up and show the courage. i disagree with all of you on the manifesto point. if she doesn't put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs

into a very difficult position. what could she put in? her red lines. my point is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the house of lords, which will be firmly in favourof remain, they will be entitled to say to her, endure a mandate at the election like this point, so we are entitled to push back. in terms of the practicalities of this, let's say theresa may winds a general election, i greater risk is it for her that people say, that was pointless. and also that she has created a bit of space forjeremy corbyn, may be helped to revive the lib dems, who were anti—brexit party, who will be key to any easier for her. meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the house of lords. could it not be her own party that says, actually,

we haven't gained very much. it's a foregone conclusion she's going to win, a question of how much of a majority she gets. it may be that corbin makes some progress on being the outsider. the antiestablishment figure. and maybe that gets a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile lib dems pick up quite a bit of what they've lost last time and were all back to where we were. when alan johnson stands down, and for many labour supporters, he represented a mist opportunity, a leader who should've been. i think we don't play in this discussion so far what will happen in the labour party. let's assume that because of the way the system works, there are still 150 labour mps, is at a reasonable assumption?

yes. withjeremy corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and i think the centre—left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about where they put their faith in the future. this is never going to happen. we're not talking about tony blair. he said only one of the centre—left plan, which is to create a movement across political party movement, which would change things. i've been there! this feels like 1981 all over again. winners, all those people out there got bored at the time, the centre—left broke away from the far left. we have an electoral system that

absolutely crushes any new arrival. look at ukip getting 15% and no mps. we have an outrageous electoral system that does not allow innovation. if all the labour mps are againstjeremy corbyn, or the majority, why don't they create something? because they wouldn't get elected again. we did it last time. they have to then fight in each seat labour candidate. that puts forward. in the short—term, it would be good for the conservative party.

i agree with your synopsis. the first is that many mps who are not household names to viewers, but westminster people know about the moderate supporters, the welterweights, the overall disappearing. it makes it much harder. an awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside the party to stop them. lows of people, particularly the older ones, have been stopped the quite cross with certain people like fiona mctaggart and alan johnson going. we could have just hung on, they could always have a by—election later. the snap election has protected some of the positions of the remaining moderates a dogface reselection. and because boundary changes are being planned. luckily there is

a generational shift. in terms of the other aspect we've spoken about, one is the question of the liberal democrats, because the lib dems were in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general election. is this going to give them potential for regeneration? it definitely does. one of the outcomes was the near destruction of the liberal democrats. i think one of the accidents of this election is will be the revival of the lib dems. not necessarily because people have huge vegan tim farrell, but because the centre—left belief in jeremy corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. there's also a bit of a remain vote for the lib dems, and that's because jeremy corbyn was never very convinced about remain. there will be places like richmond and sussex,

where labour voters labour votes to the lib dems are the well again. there is a lot more of a soft tory vote, where when the election campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it, they may decide they are remain first and tory second. it'll be better than they had, but it's not good to be huge. the impact will be about those who switch from labour to the conservatives. in northern ireland, there's the debate over the border with the republic of ireland and the snp are desperately wanting another referendum. bloggers create extra problems

for the british government. this will be the great crack. this will be the time when they say, theresa may, helped by david cameron's appalling judgment on the referendum, hacked apart the united kingdom. i think it will be all over. i think the scots will be gone after the next referendum or the one after that. in northern ireland, it's very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old times. it's been quite cavalier of the entire brexit campaign not to consider the united kingdom. i'm far more optimistic. i don't think we will have a referendum in scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. we have had a comment trading easier with arrogant for a long time, predating the eu. michael, last word on the impact on the uk. i am genuinely sceptical about weather a second referendum would win, but then again, it's seven years down the line and we don't know where their brexit negotiations will be. but the contemporary conservative party really does take scotland for granted and that's one of the reasons it took gordon brown

to port david cameron's chestnuts out of the fire on the first referendum. i would worry it hasn't learned its lesson and that is a real worry that scotland will go. the gunman who shot dead a police officer in paris on thursday night may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act. the champs elysees, in sight of the arc de triomphe, is one of france's best known locations, making this a provocative challenge to the french sense of identity. the question is whether what francois hollande says is "likely to be terrorism" will affect who the french choose to succeed him as president. agnes, did the reactions of the leading presidential candidates reveal much about this election? of course, the irony is that the attack happened at the same time during a television debate, when it was more like speed

dating, because it was not a debate. there were two debates. they had 15 minutes each, the 11 candidates to make a last case. they all were supposed to bring an object to the debate. bagshaw and tell at school. marine le pen was extremely vocal, as she always is on every subject, obviously one radical islamism. the thing is, the french have grown accustomed to those attacks. there was the louvre, there was an orderly airport, now they are army officers or police officers. so i think the impact will be limited on sunday's first round. i'm not saying there will be no impact. perhaps on the undecided, because i third of french voters are still undecided. perhaps because they don't believe in the polls any more. the polls say the first four are extremely close to each other. i still think marine le pen will face—off macron. but there are six possible scenarios. we should talk about the most frightening one, which is the hard left candidates, and extreme jeremy corbyn. he attends some of his rallies as a hologram. yes, in six different locations?

marine le pen versus heaven, i don't even want to think about it. but not on marine le pen. —— the attack may have something of an impact, but not on marine le pen. those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. i think it will affect fillon, because of his gravitas. people may think he's a crook, but they cure about national security. that's what the electorate

might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with experience. i think it harms the exciting useful vote for the newcomer. i wasjust going to say, i saw a very interesting survey today, and i'm not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, six out of ten french voters have changed their mind since the start of the year.

usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the mind up regular go, but 60% of the electorate has changed. they had no idea. —— a year ago. that's as a result of good choices on both the right and the left. there are more candidates, it is a genuine rainbow spectrum. you can see why people would ship with the left. my own view is it's far too close to call, it's all within the margin of error for those top few. i think we had better live in fear and terror. we have seen worse happening too often, we've seen

the unexpected brexit vote, the appalling transport, so let's imagine the worst and thank their lucky stars of it doesn't happen. you're already jumping to the second round. we don't have time for that! what it tells us about the state of french politics, and i right in saying that in no previous election, if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation where neither of the political grouping that have dominated french politics since charles de gaulle, would that be a first? yes, it would be a first. what is the first is the collapse of the socialist party. hamon, he was like anotherjeremy corbyn. i think he's going to score below 10%, which couldn't happen in many memories. when talking about similar figures forjeremy corbyn, since 19801935, the same in france. so the hard left candidate enjoys that dynamic of the collapse

of the socialist party. -- 1918 or 1935. what really matters for those outside france, around the world but particularly in europe, is what it means for europe. we're going to be negotiating position but what with? if it's melenchon or marine le pen, this will undermine europe completely. how are we to think about that? if it is melenchon or marine le pen, we don't know what will happen. we can forget about brexit. one

french voters said they were thinking of voting of two different people that were paradox. 0r me, one of the big things is how badly francois hollande has led his party. he's been unwilling to leave the stage early enough to let them be credible. ifjeremy corbyn had left the stage early enough, the labour party could have rebuilt. there's probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to look up. he couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate early. yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than hamon, that's for sure. he's more or less faded away, is what the opinion polls are saying. the future then is the second round. is it going to be a clear—cut enough result or will we still have people

saying it was only one or 2% but decided? the turnout will be important at the second round. we now at midday her much participation we have. if it's historically low, then marine le pen stands a lot of chances, because if it is melenchon or marine le pen, some people will not bother go cavorting. do you remember whenjacques chirac was in the last one, people on the left went to vote with nose pegs in order to keep le pen out of it. we will talk about this again after the first round is after. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. you can of course comment on the

programme on twitter @bbcshaunley. goodbye. hello there. with clear skies for many of us overnight, sunday dawns on quite a chilly note. there will be a touch of frost for some rural parts. this was the sunset on saturday evening, taken by one of our weather watchers in south ayrshire, showing the beautiful blue skies. cloud will increase across this part of the world as we head through the day on sunday, so turning cloudier across northern and western scotland, with a few showers. also some cloud across southern counties of england, and for northern ireland, too. it is, of course, the london marathon on sunday. after a fairly fresh start to the day, by the afternoon, temperatures in the mid—teens.

it should be fairly cloudy, but we are expecting it to remain dry. there is just the outside chance, though, of a passing shower in london. so this is 9am, then. you can see quite a lot of cloud across devon and cornwall, up towards east anglia, too, but there will be some brightness around. temperatures around eight or nine degrees at 9:00am, with some cloud across northern england and southern scotland, too. northern ireland starts off a bit cloudier, and that cloud also pushing in across the west of scotland, with some scattered showers across northern parts of scotland. now, moving through the day, then, not a bad day for most of us. it is looking predominantly dry, probably the best of the sunshine in a swathe through parts of northern england, the midlands, and across wales. a bit more cloud to the south of that, but most places staying dry. just that small hint of perhaps a passing shower in london for the marathon, of course, temperatures here up to around 16 degrees for the middle of the afternoon. further north, more in the way of cloud, and outbreaks of rain, too, down to the fact that we've got this frontal system approaching from the north. that will bring quite a change

in weather type as we head through into the new working week. first thing monday morning, in the countryside it, will be very chilly in the far north, particularly across parts of scotland. could be as low as minus four degrees first thing in the morning. and during the day, that cold air filters in across parts of scotland, then into northern ireland, too. some wintry showers in the north. further south, across england and wales, cloud, outbreaks of rain. but we are still in the milder air here, around 16 degrees or so, whereas further north, only around 6—9 celsius. then, as those fronts slip away towards the south, heading towards tuesday, colder air pushes down across all of us, so we return to a quite wintry feel during the course of tuesday, i think, with that cold, northerly wind. there will be quite a lot of dry, bright weather, with showers particularly towards the east, and a bit of a wintry flavour to those showers. temperatures at best for most of us around eight or nine degrees. could be up to around 13, though, in the far south—east. so that wintry theme continues into the middle of the week. still cold for wednesday and thursday, with wintry showers and night—time frosts. hello, my name is tom donkin.

france is under tight security, as the country prepares for sunday's presidential elections. 50,000 police and 7,000 soldiers are being deployed to protect voters. lucy williamson reports. in the lull before france's presidential vote, those out campaigning today weren't supporting politicians. this rally was for the police. black balloons for those killed in the line of duty. pink for the family they leave behind.