the weather g high ground. the weather stays with us high ground. the weather stays with us through the week ahead. wintry showers and frosty night. hello and welcome to dateline. theresa may, who became britain's prime minister less than a year ago after the country voted to leave the european union, has called a general election — three years earlier than she needed to. in brussels, they said her shock announcement was a twist worthy of hitchcock. the french have experienced quite a few plot twists of their own as the presidential election looms into view. with a crowded field of 11 candidates, a second round is likely. if so, we'll know by the end of sunday which two will go through. with me to discuss britain, france and all the rest, are: alex deane is a conservative commentator, michael goldfarb writes for politico europe, agnes poirier is uk editor of marianne in france, and polly toynbee is

a columnist with the guardian. welcome to you all. thanks for being back with us. polly, we will talk a lot about theresa may and why she did it, but one thing all the commentators seem to have started this election campaign in agreement on is that this will see offjeremy corbyn. but he seems to be relishing the job of underdog. why? i think he likes elections. big rallies are his thing, it is what is best at. it looks to me unlikely that he will leave, even if he thoroughly thrashed. those around him seem to be saying he's going to stay until we get a rule change will make sure that another corbynite would take after, which would be at party conference in september. this is very internal labour party stuff, but there's every reason to think that even if he is thoroughly

crushed, he's going to stay. he may stay, and that was perhaps one of the reasons why theresa may might have wanted this election, to finally lance that boil of an opposition she doesn't like. she has said she wants more authority, she wants a strong position. but we've seen antiestablishment candidates do rather well in other parts of the world. is there a danger she is running a risk of the stability she has enjoyed? every election is a risk and we have nearly seven weeks in which events can come up and derail the best of plans, but all things being equal, it looks like there wouldn't be a better time for the prime minister to do this. why is that? jeremy corbyn has led the labour party without the confidence of his own mps for some time. he seems to lack credibility in public as a leader. i'm trying to be fair. i think he spoke well at his launch.

but it's too late to turn around the general lack of confidence in him, notjust in the party but in the country at large. isn't that a case for having him for another three years? i think polly is right, i think he'll stay. jeremy corbyn is not going to suddenly be anything different. the real reason she called it is that this is her peak moment. she will never be as popular or successful as she is now. she's going into the most difficult negotiations. we don't even know who is sitting on the other side of the table, depending on the elections in france and germany. she's probably going to head—on confrontation with other people in europe and also her own backbenchers. whatever compromise she makes, she will be trounced, so nothing will ever be so good for her again. so that election in 2020 would have been much harder to win. indeed, she would have come back is probably a rotten deal and at least half the population would think it

was a rotten deal, whatever it was. michael, you're reporting with for people who don't know britain. have you explaining it? there are two things. i have this image of someone saying to their stockbroker, when the price gets to such and such, sell. just a few hours after the announcement was made, the financial times was running comment about how clever this was, because on both sides, the idea of negotiating something that is realistic both from a european perspective and a british perspective, on britain's detachment from the european union in two years is virtually impossible. what she has essentially done is bought herself and the eu an extra few years to figure out how to untangle britain's relationship. in that respect, she may have been taking soundings from people

in brussels, that one way of extending this negotiating period and moving that hard deadline of 2019, because we know that in europe, all deadlines are made to be pushed further along. this may well have played into her decision as well. it's surprising she didn't call for an election before, for instance, after the astounding victory at the by—election. so it all makes sense, she is buying more time. she has a boulevard in front of, as we say french. of course, the lib dems are probably going to win a few seats and labour is going to be crushed. the snp cannot do better apart from one more seat. and of course, she only had the mandate of 200 mps before now. for brussels, is better

to have a stronger british prime minister, otherwise you don't know. and then also, within her own party, she is often been taken hostage by hard brexiteers. now if she can say, you shut up, i have a mandate. whatever she may have said publicly and we have just take everything she says on its merits. she said seven times she wasn't going to have an election and then she changed her mind. we can't take anything she says at face value after that. but in terms of one of the things you didn't talk about, about the difficulty of selling the big city will never own party, is that part of the calculation? i think like any prime minister who was not elected at a general election, she felt that lack of authority. there are times when it's dangerous not to have an

election, as gordon brown showed. the other thing about her position is not only that she'll get that sort of mandate, but also in the brexit negotiations, she will be able to see, not only now has been a referendum and a vote in the house of commons and the house of lords, but also a popular general election. it does improve her hand in the negotiations. that's only if she spells out what her negotiating position is and what her red lines are. what's really disgraceful is, we have talked about these tactics, gordon brown made a mistake and she's not going to make this a mistake. the real genuine politics are that we need an election when she comes home with the deal, with the people can genuinely decide weather they like the deal or weather they think it's a mistake. this is meaningless. there is nothing new. that is nothing new content to be decided in any ma nifesto.

we really need one when she has done the deal. this conversation reflects that the biggest danger for the prime minister is expectation management, because unless she does extraordinarily well, then corporate will be seen to have done better than expected. which will give him the space to carry on. you are managing our expectations. i slightly disagree with polly about putting in the manifesto what her negotiating positions are. it's actually too early. she doesn't have positions. i do think that having the election is not a bad thing. firstly because i did think... ithink... you're torn? i thought gordon brown actually did make a mistake. even if he had lost, you have to stand up and show the courage.

i disagree with all of you on the manifesto point. if she doesn't put pledges in the manifesto, then she runs into a very difficult position. what could she put in? red lines. my point is, in the absence of that material in the manifesto, then the house of lords, which will be firmly favour of remain, they will be entitled to say to her in the lords, endure a mandate at the election like this point, so we are entitled to push it back to you. in terms of the practicalities of this, let's say theresa may winds a general election, how great a risk is it for her that people say, that was pointless? and also that she has created a bit of space forjeremy corbyn, may be helped to revive the lib dems, who were anti—brexit party,

who will not make it any easier for her. meanwhile, there are those pesky people in the house of lords. could it not be her own party that says, actually, we haven't gained very much? it's a foregone conclusion she's going to win, a question of how much of a majority she gets. it may be that corbin makes some progress on being the outsider. the antiestablishment figure. and maybe that get a bit of a ground swell, meanwhile lib dems pick up quite a bit of what they've lost last time and were all back to where we were. optimistic. when alan johnson stands down, and for many labour supporters, he represented a missed opportunity, a leader who should've been. i think we downplay in this

discussion so far what will happen in the labour party. let's assume that because of the way the system works, there are still 150 labour mps, is at a reasonable assumption? yes. withjeremy corbyn, we hear the talk of purges, and i think the centre—left will have to have a huge discussion among themselves about where they put their faith in the future. this is never going to happen. we're not talking about tony blair. he said only with the centre—left plan, which is to create a movement cross—political party movement, which would change things. i've been there!

this feels like 1981 all over again. the centre—left broke away from the far left. we have an electoral system that absolutely crushes any new arrival. look at ukip getting 15% and no mps. we have an outrageous electoral system that does not allow innovation. if all the labour mps are againstjeremy corbyn, or the majority, why don't they create something? because they wouldn't get elected again. we did it last time. they have to then fight in each seat a labour candidate. splits the vote.

in the short—term, it would be good for the conservative party. i agree with your synopsis. the first is that many mps who are not household names to viewers, but westminster watchers know the welterweights, all disappearing. it makes it much harder. an awful lot want to go and has been a huge pressures inside the party to stop them. loads of people, particularly the older ones, have been stopped the quite cross with certain people like fiona mctaggart and alanjohnson going. we could have just hung on, they could always have a by—election later. the snap election has protected some of face reselection.

the positions of the remaining moderates who don't face reselection. and because boundary changes are being planned. luckily there is a generational shift. in terms of the other aspect we've spoken about, one is the question of the liberal democrats, because the lib dems we re in parliamentary terms all but annihilated in the last general election. is this going to give them potential for regeneration? it definitely does. cameron feels like a long time ago. one of the outcomes was the near destruction of the liberal democrats. i think one of the accidents of this election is will be the revival of the lib dems. not necessarily because people have huge faith in farron, but because the centre—left belief injeremy corbyn is so low, this would else will vote go. there's also a bit of a remain vote forthe lib dems, and that's because jeremy corbyn was never very convinced about remain.

there will be places like richmond and sussex, where labour voters lent to the lib dems will again. there is a lot more of a soft tory vote, where when the election campaign goes on and receive the relentless nature of it, they may decide they are remain first and tory second. it'll be better than they had, but it's not huge. the impact will be dwarfed by those who switch from labour to the conservatives. in northern ireland, there's the debate over the border with the republic of ireland and the snp are desperately wanting another referendum. will this create extra problems for the british government?

this will be the great crack. this will be the time when they say, theresa may, helped by david cameron's appalling judgment on the referendum, cracked apart the united kingdom. i think it will be all over. i think the scots will be gone after the next referendum or the one after that. in northern ireland, it's very frightening about weather we go back to the bad old times. it's been quite cavalier of the entire brexit campaign not to consider the united kingdom. i'm far more optimistic. i don't think we will have a referendum in scotland, but if we do, it will be lost. northern ireland, quick solution. we have had a comment trading easier with arrogant for a long time, predating the eu. michael, last word on the impact on the uk. i—i am genuinely sceptical about weather a second referendum would win,

but then again, it's seven years —— several down the line and we don't know where the brexit negotiations will be. but the contemporary conservative party really does take scotland for granted and that's one of the reasons it took gordon brown to pull david cameron's chestnuts out of the fire on the first referendum. i would worry it hasn't learned its lesson and that is a real worry that scotland will make a bid. the gunman who shot dead a police officer in paris on thursday night may or may not have grasped the full symbolism of his murderous act. the champs elysees, in sight of the arc de triomphe, is one of france's best known locations, making this a provocative challenge to the french sense of identity. the question is whether what francois hollande says is "likely to be terrorism" will affect who the french choose to succeed him as president. agnes, did the reactions of the leading presidential candidates reveal much about this election? of course, the irony is that

the attack happened at the same time during a television debate, when it was more like speed dating, because it was not a debate. there were two debates. they had 15 minutes each, the 11 candidates to make a last case. they all were supposed to bring an object to the debate. show and tell at school. marine le pen was extremely vocal, as she always is on every subject, obviously on radical islamism. the thing is, the french have grown accustomed to those attacks. there was the louvre, airport,

now they are aimed at police officers. so i think the impact will be limited on sunday's first round. i'm not saying there will be no impact. perhaps on the undecided, because i third of french voters are still undecided. perhaps because they don't believe in the polls any more. the polls say the first four are extremely close to each other. i still think marine le pen will face—off macron. but there are six possible scenarios. six?! we should talk about the most frightening one, which is the hard left candidate, and uber—corbyn.

he attends some of his rallies as a hologram? yes, in six different locations. i don't even want to think about it. the attack may have something of an impact, but not on marine le pen. those voting for her were going to vote for her anyway. i think it will affect fillon, because of his gravitas. people may think he's a crook, but they care about national security. that's what the electorate might say, because this is a serious time and calls for people with experience. i think it harms the exciting youthful vote for the newcomer. marsh is the loser or events.

—— march. i wasjust going to say, i saw a very interesting survey today, and i'm not big on data journalism, but this was interesting, six out of ten french voters have changed their mind since the start of the year. usually, everyone knows about this election and everyone has made the mind up a year go, but 60% of the electorate has changed. they had no idea. that's as a result of good choices on both the right and the left. a rainbow spectrum. you can see why people would shift within the left. my own view is it's far too close

to call, it's all within the margin of error for those top few. i think we had better live in fear and terror. we have seen worse happening too often, we've seen the unexpected brexit vote, the appalling transport, so let's imagine the worst and thank their lucky stars of it doesn't happen. you're already jumping to the second round. what it tells us about the state of french politics, am i right in saying that in no previous election, if this comes to pass on the second round, would there be a situation where neither of the political groupings that have dominated french politics since charles de gaulle, would be represented — that's a first? yes, it would be a first. what is the first is the collapse of the socialist party. hamon, he was like anotherjeremy corbyn. i think he's going to score below 10%, which couldn't happen in living memories.

since 1918 or 1935, the same in france. so the hard left candidate enjoys that dynamic of the collapse of the socialist party. what really matters for those outside france, around the world but particularly in europe, is what it means for europe. we're going to be negotiating position but what with? if it's melenchon or marine le pen, this will undermine europe completely. it will scarcely exist. if it is melenchon or marine le pen, we don't know what will happen. voting seems a paradox.

0r me, one of the big things is how badly francois hollande has led his party. he's been unwilling to leave the stage early enough to let them be credible. ifjeremy corbyn had left the stage early enough, the labour party could have rebuilt. with hollande and term lengths, it's so important. there's probably no more important than no and there is a terrible legacy to look up. he couldn't made it clear he wasn't going to be the candidate early and backed another. yes, there could have been a much stronger candidate than hamon, that's for sure. he's more or less faded away, is what the opinion polls are saying. the future then is the second round. is it going to be a clear—cut enough result or will we still have people saying it was only one

or 2% who decided? the turnout will be important at the second round. we know at midday how much participation we have. if it's historically low, then marine le pen stands a lot of chances, because if it is melenchon or marine le pen, even fillon—le pen. do you remember whenjacques chirac was in the last one, people on the left went to vote with nose pegs in order to keep others out of it. we will talk about this again after the first round is over. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. you can of course comment on the programme on twitter @bbcshaunley. goodbye.

cold weather not unusual in april but that does not mean it will not come as a shock to the system when it arrives and it will arrive the next few days. chilly weather. wintry showers, cold and frosty nights. make the most of the decent spring conditions today. varying amounts of cloud as you can see. fairly thin, fairamount amounts of cloud as you can see. fairly thin, fair amount of brightness. patches of cloud in south wales, but of the west

country, east anglia, south east. more in northern ireland and north—west scotland. some splashes of rain. further south moor in the wa ke of rain. further south moor in the wake of censure. can't completely ruled out showers if you are unlucky, if there is thick cloud. in the south, wales, midlands, is that the south, wales, midlands, is that the —— anglia, decent. south east scotla nd the —— anglia, decent. south east scotland looking fine as well. more cloud in northern ireland, western scotland. the northern ireland, wet and windy and cold, three degrees. that is the first sign of the shocks changed to cold weather because of this front of moving southwards. cold air tacking in behind it. a touch of frost here. more cloud further south. if you keep crisp as, one 01’

further south. if you keep crisp as, one or two mac spots a touch of frost. tomorrow, working its way south behind the cold front. cloud and patchy rain. still some brightness on the south coast. by disguising the afternoon for the north. with the cold air, wintry showers, rain, sleet, hailstones and snow. especially in high ground but evenin snow. especially in high ground but even in lower levels. just three degrees in aberdeen. where you escape the jail on monday, you will not escape on tuesday. by this page, the cold antarctic winds, some spells a sunshine but wintry showers. rain, sleet, hailstones and stuff. chilly on wednesday as well. by stuff. chilly on wednesday as well. by thursday, showers receding and bringing the temperatures up. prepare to face at the jail, a shock coming with colder weather from the north coming in. —— face the chilly

weather. this is bbc news. the headlines at midday: jeremy corbyn refuses to confirm that labour would renew britain's trident nuclear deterrent, if it wins next month's general election. voting is underway in the first round of the french presidential election — candidates emmanuel macron and marine le pen have cast their votes. greater manchester police are appealing for witnesses after a man was killed by thieves who stole his car in chorlton. the boyfriend of reality tv star ferne mccann is arrested in connection with an alleged acid attack in a london nightclub. also in the next hour — kenya's mary keitany runs the second fastest women's marathon of all time in london. records broken in the women's race. the male athletes should cross this line ina the male athletes should cross this line in a couple of minutes. tens of thousands of other runners so as

course across london.