french pollster. ijoined by jean—phillipe. but you got this right before the commended? yes. we saw that emmanuel macron and marine le pen were about 30%. and francois fillon and jean—luc melenchon at around 19%. so it was a relief to see our polls are right. what surprised you? see our polls are right. what surprised you 7 was see our polls are right. what surprised you? was a sunny about the turnout that you are perhaps not expecting? yes. this was a surprise because we expected it to be lower. because of the campaign that was imbued with scandals. that turns collectors away from the election. but the electors did not want others to decide for them what the second round would be. they did go to

polling boxes. yes. and the fact that you have semi— undecideds going into this election. how difficult was it to factor that in? —— so many undecideds. as you know, francois fillon and marine le pen had a solid core base of a electors. on the contrary, emmanuel macron had a very fragile base of electors. so the difficulty in this campaign was to, as you say, factor in this element. but in the end, the ratio forces we measured in the campaign were quite right. so the voters voted as they said they would do. really? yes. looking ahead, how close do you have

an idea of what the result will be at the end of may seven? to be honest, the possibility of marine le pen winning this election is very low. she would need a tremendous rate of abstention from voters of jean—luc melenchon, francois fillon, et cetera. however, she may reach a very high score. some weeks, when we assimilate the second round, we have eight ratio of 60—40. that is 64 emmanuel macron, and 44 marine le pen. that is roughly twice what her father got against jacques chirac. that is the reason why people were not so surprised that she reached the second round. —— emmanuel macron

for —— 60 forfour emmanuel the second round. —— emmanuel macron for —— 60 for four emmanuel macron. —— 40 fourmarine for —— 60 for four emmanuel macron. —— 40 four marine le pen. for —— 60 for four emmanuel macron. -- 40 four marine le pen. we go to the newspapers and have a look at how it is being reported here in france and elsewhere. we show you a picture here of le figaro. it showers a picture of the presidential hopefuls emmanuel macron and marine le pen, the two front runners from sunday's first round of voting. the elimination, the paper says, of francois fillon and jean—luc melenchon is a historic defeat. going to the uk's financial times, it reports that the victory has set the scene for two fraught weeks of election campaigning between the far right leader and the independent centrist. this as they

com plete independent centrist. this as they complete their race for the presidency on major seven. we will try to show you that in a minute. —— may seventh. the south china morning post says french expats cast their votes in sunday's "nail—biting" first round. it says that according to the french consulate there are more than 8,000 eligible voters living in hong kong and macau. just one more paper to bring you. this is the international addition of the new york times. each is an image of soldiers near a polling station on sunday in paris. —— it showers. —— shows. the paper says the election is one of the most consequential in recent times, notjust for france but for europe, and one of the most unpredictable too. the irish times reports "macron poised to defeat le pen in run—off".

we have been hearing that from one pollster. with an image of the smiling independent candidate, the paper says the only thing that mr macron and ms le pen agree on is that the left—right division is finished. and finally the london business paper, city am. it reports that the euro jumped on sunday after emmanuel macron emerged as the likely leader in the race to become france's next president. at one point, the eurozone's single currency was up nearly 2%, and that's the highest in five months. joining me to discuss today's papers, french journalist agnes poirier. just on that note of the currency surging at the relief of this result, what was the worst case scenario that markets had imagined? i think we were all waiting for the possibility ofjean—luc melenchon versus marine le pen. because their programmes were quite similar. very

populistic. so massive public spending, that sort of thing. except the hard left candidate wanted to open borders, and marine le pen wa nted open borders, and marine le pen wanted to close them. but in the economic programme, they were incredibly close. and where there we re incredibly close. and where there were those jazzers, that had affected the market. the right knocked out. we talk about the conservatives, the centre right, rosati on, not the far right. the french are right was by francois fillon. -- french are right was by francois fillon. —— francois fillon. this was jacques chirac‘s party. they have beenin

jacques chirac‘s party. they have been in power since 1958. this is not just been been in power since 1958. this is notjust been viewed as an electoral blow? the right has disappeared and thatis blow? the right has disappeared and that is the republican party. so now we have two unknown entities. emmanuel macron is young. his editor and 40 this year. he does not have a party. so it is a complete renewal of the political class, really, that we go to see in the next two months. and marine le pen, caused a we know her. —— he is going to turn 40. this was a link that she inherited from her father. she was a link that she inherited from herfather. she cherished it was a link that she inherited from her father. she cherished it and made it more mainstream. but she presents herself as an angry citizen. this is historical. what is this mean for french mps? we have a lot of them saying this might be at

the presidential level, but i am going to carry on in my constituency, i wonder my constituency. i think a lot from the right and the left are going to join emmanuel macron. and he will need professional politicians as well as new faces. there will also be allowa nces, new faces. there will also be allowances, probably. it will be case—by—case. but they have only a few weeks to make it work. usually, traditionally, the french quite coherent. when they choose a president, they give him or her a majority. but it is going to be tricky, this time. i do not we can see the south china morning post, but that mentioned french as facts. how much enthusiasm is there for french people around the world? callous determination was to get their vote in? callous determination was to get theirvote in? —— callous determination was to get their vote in? —— morning. callous determination was to get their vote in? -- morning. it took two hours to get those in. —— me to

do. but this is not new. universal suffrage is something that electrified you. —— how much determination. voter turnout is higher than many other european countries. 80%, and 85% or more in the second round. we love casting vote in giving our opinion. thank you very much for your time and for being with us here in paris, madrid. much more coverage from karin giannone in paris to come. goodbye for now. hello there. we've got a bit of a taste of winter for the new working week. the cold front is heading south

across the uk introducing colder conditions. so, through the week ahead, a chance of seeing wintry showers. gardeners, take note, also some frosty nights over the next few nights too. we are already seeing colder conditions moving in across scotland with sleet and snow showers, mostly over the high ground, but some wintry precipitation getting down to lower levels. further south across the uk, we've got quite a lot of cloud. a few outbreaks of rain. but still into the milder air. looking at the weather for monday morning. 8am. largely dry in southern counties. some sunshine in the south coast towards london. so, a relatively fine start to the day. heading our way further north, one or two patchy showers coming out of the cloud and the bulk of england and wales. heavy rain in northern england and northern ireland first thing as well. that is the weather front going south. but to the north of that, sunshine and wintry showers blowing in on that brisk northerly wind across scotland. it will be wintry across the north of scotland. there could be accumulations of snow in the higher ground of scotland. sleet mixed in even at lower levels and hail is possible.

further south across the uk, cloudy with outbreaks of rain on that frontal system. some reaching the london region later on. temperatures still around 14—15 degrees. further north, struggling, at best, 7—9. still mild in the far south late on monday. getting cleared away and pushed away by the frontal system. that opens the door for cold air to work across all of the country into tuesday. northerly arrows showing that bitterly cold wind. across scotland once again on tuesday, further sleet and snow showers. down the east coast of england, also some showers here. some working further inland. mostly falling as rain on lower levels. but there will be some sleet and snow mixed in. some sunshine and dry conditions across much of southern and south—western england. but temperatures at best around 7—11 on tuesday. a similar day on wednesday. sunshine and scattered showers.

a bit of a wintry flavour to some of these showers over the high ground in particular. and again, those temperatures will struggle. just seven degrees in aberdeen. 12 in london. the latter part of the week, gradually things will start to turn a little bit milder and showers should ease in most areas. that's how it's looking. have a good week. hello. good morning. this is breakfast, with dan walker and louise minchin. a political earthquake in france as two outsiders are chosen for the final stage of the presidential election. the national front‘s marine le pen and the centrist, emanuel macron, will go head to head in two weeks' time. good morning. it's monday the 24th of april. also this morning:

a man hunt is launched after the death of a ex—royal navy officer killed trying to stop burglars steal his car in manchester. the police describe it as beyond criminal. this could have happened to absolutely anybody.