and the guardian reports that large numbers of foreign fighters are abandoning so—called islamic state and depleting the ranks of the terror group. now on bbc news, it's time for newsnight. it takes courage to tell the elderly you're taking away their triple lock pension rises. theresa may didn't seem sure that she had that courage today. will the prime minister gave a clear and unambiguous commitment to maintaining the triple lock? we see, we have seen pensioners benefit as a result of what we've done to the basic state pension. no. her head says the triple lock should go, but politics says otherwise. we'll ask if a party leader with a 20% poll lead needs to promise anything to anyone. also tonight, post brexit, what is the point of ukip? we sentjohn sweeney to invade clackton on sea to find out. you voted for ukip last time? i did, yes, and i voted mainly for douglas carswell and brexit so i doubt if i'll vote for them again. and can you name this rebellious

middle class tearaway? yes, it's ernesto "che" guevara. his younger brother lifts the lid on what he was really like. translation: the shirt that we used to call the weekly shirt, because he would wear it the whole week without washing it. he was very untidy and people used to call him pig. hello. elections are meant to be the best of times to debate the grand strategic questions facing the nation. but maybe they're the worst. the sublime arguments can get supplanted by the squalid struggle for votes. even parties 20% ahead in the polls can't resist bribing the public. is that what is happening here with regard to pensioners? an important question for this election is who should get more of the pie — the old or the young. the old have been doing relatively well, partly thanks

to the so—called triple lock, which ensures the state pension keeps rising by the inflation rate, or with earnings, or at 2.5%, whichever is higher. it's kicked in while working age welfare and wages have fallen back. so, as party manifestos are cobbled together, is now the time to suggest to voters an end to the triple lock? the subject came up in the commons today, labour and snp wanting to keep it. theresa may was not saying, and there is understood to be a battle going on behind the scenes in the tory party for whether to keep it in their manifesto or not. here's our policy editor chris cook. a clear choice between a labour party who in government saw the increase in the basic state pension of 75p in one year, and a conservative government whose changes to pensions mean basic state pensioners are £1,250 better off.

i simply say this. labour will guarantee the triple lock, labour will treat pensioners with respect and we won't move the goalposts to people looking forward to retirement. for the last 20 years or so it may as well have been a constitutional requirement that politicians should campaign on how generous they plan to be to pensioners. thank you very much. the rationale is surely notjust that they are warm—hearted, nor that we all aspire to be old. cynics might note that, first, the elderly are a growing group of voters and old people turn out to vote more than younger people. they vote and they swing elections. but it's notjust a cynical ploy. in 1997, someone who was 70 had a much lower income than someone who was about 35. pensioner poverty was a top tier social problem.

since then, though, successive politicians have looked to address that problem. the winter fuel allowance. free tv licences for over 75s. free bus travel. free eye tests. free television licences. a winter fuel allowance of £150. and they have succeeded. when you adjust for housing costs, older people are now better off than those younger counterparts. the political incentives are still there, but the case for spending a lot more on pensioners simply isn't as strong as it once was. chris cook there. i'm joined by nick watt, our political editor. obviously everyone is writing their manifestos, this has turned into one of those interesting debates for the parties. what's going on with the conservatives? a flurry of excitement this afternoon when the prime minister declined to say whether she would stand by the triple lock in the manifesto. i understand no decision has been made and that theresa may is taking

a long and hard look at this, looking at the costings. one cabinet member said it is a challenge to meet the costs. she's looking at polling data to see what people think. the balance she wants to strike is a fair deal for pensioners while doing more for young people, what the geeks called intergenerational fairness. what are the options? option number one is that you stick with it for the entirety of the next parliament, the thinking being that given that inflation is going to be running at or above the bank of england target of 2%, why not carry on with the triple lock because pensions are going to be decreasing by about 2.5% anyway? number two, you stand by the conservatives‘ current commitment to keep it until 2020 but after that you give yourselves more flexibility by moving from a triple lock to a double lock, under which you scrap the 2.5% target and go for increasing it with whichever is the highest, inflation or highest earnings. if you do that you are coming into line with the review by john cridland, the former head of the cbi, who talked about getting rid of the 2.5% target, increasing the retirement age in the late 20

20s, 268, which would save you money which can be on social care. where is the conservative manifesto? monday the eighth. a lot of pensioners struggle but in pensioners past, pensioner poverty was far worse than it is now. now, let's be clear, a lot of pensioners struggle, but in decades past pensioner poverty was far worse than now. it was part of the landscape rather like the care crisis is these days. a sustained, concerted effort eased the problem. but is it time to stop giving special treatment to pensioners? we asked to speak to the government but no one is available.

i'm joined by david cameron's former pensions minister baroness altmann and by ian blackford who speaks on pensions for the snp. it was they who asked the question that got some indecision from theresa may. you aren't a fan of this. you were in government, you are part of the party that pledged it, what is wrong with it? the triple lock made sense when it was first introduced because pensioners had fallen behind and it guaranteed that you would be increasing their pensions but actually it's a little bit of a trick because it doesn't apply to all of the state pension, only bits of it. in fact it doesn't apply to the pension credit, which is what the poorest pensioners are on. if you want to look at poor pensioners, they are the ones you want to most protect. so this 2.5% which is this arbitrary figure... why 2.5%7 effectively it doesn't have any economic rationale. you want pensioners

to keep up with the cost of living, average earnings, you don't want them to fall behind the rest of the economy and we must protect pensioners but i think the triple lock... you'd be happy with the double lock? the double lock is the fairest and it is the best for the young because otherwise there is the pressure to increase the state pension age. we heard about the 75p increase in pensions that we had some years ago and your guest talked about this but we have 6.5 million pensioners. there are 77% of pensioners... is it just your constituents? why would you make a pledge for pensioners across the party? why not make a pledge for child benefit? the situation in 1979, the state pension was 26% of average earnings and if the triple lock was to remain until 2020 according to john cridland

it would only get. pensioners are playing catch up. it isn't their fault that we haven't had real wage growth. we need to make sure that we have that, you don't take it out on the pensioners. you aren't taking anything out on the pensioners if you take away the 2.5% as long as you have the double lock to make sure that they don't fall behind the economy and keep up with the cost of living. you must also apply it to the pension credit because that's what the poorest pensioners live on. what's really going on here, i don't want to get stuck too much in this but you are just playing politics because you're never going to be a position to implement it because you are not a national party. you're trying to trap the uk government

into committing themselves into something that maybe impractical. pensioners must have dignity in retirement. the problem has been about the increase in the pensionable age and this is a consequential we would make. we have made commitments to pensioners that we would make sure we deliver this under an independent scotland. we're talking about the response ability have two the elderly. what is your advice to the conservative party who obviously thinking about their manifesto? keeping the triple lock will increase the pressure on the state pension age, pushing it up is unfair. that is unfair on younger people. they will have to pay for the triple lock and they will have a higher state pension age. i think keeping the triple lock until now has been fine, if you want to keep it until 2020, that's the commitment that has been made but beyond that, it's a political construct.

she must think the same as you, i would have thought, don't most ,,, ~ experts think the same? it's a logical. is she being cowardly? she's going into the election as a strong leader but she's looking very indecisive on this. you don't really need to make a commitment now on this issue, as triple lock was taken away. that shows you're taking a lot of money from the rest of the population. there is a 30 billion surplus in the national insurance fund. which is used to cover everything. the fact that we can protect pensioners and it can be done through the national insurance fund... who is the more progressive

of the two of you? the snp call themselves more progressive. i think we need to get away from political nonsense and the 2.5% is a political construct, it isn't logical and it has consequences that are damaging not only for pensioners because increasingly as we go forward mike the oldest and poorest pensioners will fall behind. among the over 65s. if you're going to take a difficult decision for them, wouldn't you be able to do it if you have 62% support? or if you win with a big majority. we know that the triple lock isn't going to stay for ever, it's a question of when it's going to go because you can't keep on with this arbitrary figure, it isn't sensible policy.

thank you forjoining us. one question that has been gripping westminster insiders is whether borisjohnson will be "weaponised" for the election campaign, or will he be locked away? his style clearly attracts some voters, but it is very different to that of theresa may. mrjohnson gave a speech at the mansion house tonight and the personality projected was more foreign secretary than boris. is this telling us something? nick is still here. what do we know about the role of boris? borisjohnson is keen to show himself after a good foreign secretary after his bruising experience when he cancelled a moscow visit. a source told me it was cancelled under pressure from number 10 because the prime minister feared he would muck it up. the language was a bit more colourful. there is some speculation about whether he is a semidetached member of the cabinet and whether he would be sidelined in the general

election campaign. tomorrow we are going to see a very boris johnson intervention because in an article in the sun he's going to say that people are wrong to regard jeremy corbyn as just a mutted headed mugwhump, he will say that he is a threat to the uk because he doesn't support trident. this is an important political message on the day that a opinion poll says that the conservative lead is down to 16 points. the message is that conservative supporters shouldn't be complacent, it isn't in the bag. back

in 2010 ukip just got 3% of the vote. how will do this time? a lot can change over parliament and it has been quite a journey over the last couple of years. the party hoped to steal labour voters among blue—collar areas in the north of england in particular, but the striking feature so far of the campaign is that theresa may is doing her best to steal ukip votes among that demographic. we have been looking around the country at how post— nigel farage ukip is faring. what's not to like? it was here in in clapton three years ago to the g: great ukip revolution was to transform british politics. but now, with their great policy of brexit, you've got to ask, what's the point of ukip existing? in the brexit

you've got to ask, what's the point of ukip existing‘ year, e brexit you've got to ask, what's the point of ukip existing‘ year, e brexi1 raised middle finger w, middlefinger to i middlefinger to the the space invaders from union. the space invaders from brussels got zapped here. it is one of the most pro brexit towns in britain. we must be a party for all written and all britons. its former mp douglas ca rswell stood written and all britons. its former mp douglas carswell stood down after ukip donor arron banks said he would run against him. we'll clacton vote ukip this time? they've done their job. they've done theirjob. there's no point any more. you voted ukip la st no point any more. you voted ukip last time? yesterday voted mainly for douglas carswell and brexit. so i doubt if i will vote for them again. mr banks got the message. you are not standing. another ukip mp

bites the dust? we spent two hours discussing the local party and decided to stand aside. do you think ukip nationally is a happy ship?” don't think it's a happy ship, no. the party is over for ukip, isn't it? i disagree, but there we go. the pa rty‘s chaos it? i disagree, but there we go. the party's chaos in clapton is mirrored across the country. their polling numbers have tanked and are now in single beginners. ukip's fortune in wales illustrate its problem spectacularly. former ukip mp and welsh assembly member mark reckless quit this month. who helped push him out? his kingpin in wales, neil hamilton. more often in later. his immediate predecessor is nathan gill, the king over the water. isn't

isn'la kipper. isn'la; kipper. what he isn't a happy kipper. what happened to ukip in wales has been disastrous. it's a problem in two words called neil hamilton.“ disastrous. it's a problem in two words called neil hamilton. if you look at how wales was until he came to wales and look at how wales is now, we are now for the first time ever with more ex— members than members. is that good? how can it be good for any political party to be in that situation? of course not. only last year ukip broke through in the welsh assembly elections, but that was then. the local elections next month, they are standing in only 6% of seats. at one point ukip had more energy than | the e & abselutelgg- a painting i one'ggt total= yqllq. painting is one of total i wouldn't say total chaos, chaos. i wouldn't say total chaos, but basically the wind has been

blown out of the sales of many of the members and we need to find that wind again. we won the referendum and fora wind again. we won the referendum and for a lot of people that is now on. we have to find it again, otherwise there will be no reason for ukip. i believe we can find it again, but we need the leader of the party to guide us and direct us and to inspire the membership and here in wales i'm afraid the leader is doing that. klim the challenge for ukip is that they've lost their great charismatic leader and, worse than that, with brexit being triggered they've lost the thing that cemented these people together. you've got a party of rebellion without a cause. time perhaps to quiz welsh pundits about ukip. the newsnight ukip quiz. no conferring,

no cheating. the united kingdom independence party was founded in which year? the contestants are taking our —— aren't taking our quiz entirely seriously. it was unfounded by simon rushdie, but most like brexit. a semiserious question. you think that having brexit have had that and, is there a purpose for brexit? —— with brexit having happened. yes, i think he endorsed the fact that the people, the happened. yes, i think he endorsed the factt meps, people, the happened. yes, i think he endorsed the factt meps, who le, the happened. yes, i think he endorsed the fact t meps, who are they? happened. yes, i think he endorsed the factt meps, who are they? what european meps, who are they? what are they doing with us? i think that's a bloody good point. nigel farage stood up for them. with ukip now, they have to make sure that wrecks it is delivered and delivered in the right way. the folk down the

pub reflect wales as a whole, which gave the thumbs up for brexit. by the year ukip are not cashing in. how does their leader explained that failure? isn't it true that ukip in wales is it a bit of a pickle?” don't think it is. the party members are overwhelmingly behind us generally. newsnight has seen e—mails from your hamilton which painta e—mails from your hamilton which paint a different teacher. the e—mails are extraordinarily £711.52 2”; eg!—.e;>—5i'e.eri!¥ rnié5:.=!' — ukip