this week, the war of elections in france and the uk, and a new round ofjaw—jaw to try to bring peace to the middle east. to discuss that, four eminent "jaw—ers" — british conservative commentator alex deane, thomas keilinger who writes for germany's die welt, and agnes poirier, uk editor of marianne in france. if emmanuel macron wins, what kind of france will be if emmanuel macron wins, what kind of france will he get? if emmanuel macron wins, what kind of france will be get? nobody knows. we have seen him at the debate with marine le pen. marine le pen had a disastrous car crashed debate he held the fort. he was relaxed and calm. so at least we know he is kind

of presidential 48 39—year—old. what we know? his programme is pro—business but also quite socially conscious. he is a centrist. the real thing is, of course, the general elections which will be taking place in june. general elections which will be taking place injune. we need to fill all the mps seats at the national assembly. it was the first time we might have a president without a party, 0k. time we might have a president withouta party, 0k. he time we might have a president without a party, 0k. he said he didn't want anyone from the left and the right. therefore he needs to present a new face for every single constituency. i agree also that is the crunch time, if he wins. attem pts the crunch time, if he wins. atte m pts to the crunch time, if he wins. attempts to present him as an outsider, a new force, are lost. he is clearly a very astute person who has turned around a shell of the

conservative party and escape from that. without having a real party in parliament and that is when the real test will come i about the of the wikileaks we have seen overnight. it seems there is clearly some stuff in there which is very negative about macron. i am there which is very negative about macron. iam not there which is very negative about macron. i am not saying that will mean he loses but if he wins, it will play throughout june mean he loses but if he wins, it will play throughoutjune when the general election happens.” will play throughoutjune when the general election happens. i think i am more interested in the kind of president he will be and the personality, which we have to learn a great deal of it is about french visceral resistance to change and domestic reform. it is the elephant in the room. it is the elephant in the room. two years ago, president hollande tried modest reforms. how

will he surmount the bill in resista nce will he surmount the bill in resistance and the conservatism which will not let go of the 55 age going into retirement and the 35 working week as well. they are just as much in danger of being a problem for the euro over time as the other countries. the fear is he mightjust be another president francois hollande and just sit for five years. that means marine le pen is a shoo—in. is france reform of all? that is a big question. its oldest ally is the united states. there is lots of evidence by the united states you can change the politics ofa states you can change the politics of a country but it is hard to do if you have not brought the public on site was might say macron has not

done that yet. he has done better than anyone expected he reminds me of tony blair. he is the young, vigorous life or you listen to what he says carefully and you think how do those things sit together question that is the magic and the danger. he had a majority and he could not do everything he wanted to do. i would say that marine le pen will get 40%. donald trump got 46%. these are still large numbers of people who will resist. but, if he manages to shuffle the cards, which he seems to have done psychically, and say we have to do something new, maybe some of those things will happen and there will not be farmers with tractors in paris every week. the demand was always for a stronger president. they have had it each time in each time the president has been ineffectual. i think the

position of le pen will be significant, whatever happens. either way france will be run by a woman, either by me or by angela merkel. let's pick up on that. there has been a suggestion that actually this will be regarded as a boon in berlin. there will be a restoration of the strength and the relationship between paris and berlin that has been seen as the driver, the engine of progress. if they think that will happen they are running ahead of themselves. macron needs to establish the kind of person he is, whether he can make france more formal ball. angela merkel has to win her mandate. and then, in addition in this day and age that nothing works like access politics anymore. everything is in the shadow of centrifugal forces which make it pretty impossible in the crowd of

the 26 member states of the eu in the 26 member states of the eu in the old empire between france and germany. i do not think it will happen. germany will be just as eager as all of us around this table as to what kind of president macron will be. let's not write off entirely the possibility of the penn winning for the people going to these things thinking they know the result. —— marine le pen winning. you are foolish in a binary situation to dismiss that possibility. she is a much better candidate than her father was. she was a much more astute politician. talking of brexit, the kind of headache from london and for theresa may is presumably, if there is a stronger voice, it means they will be more closely aligned with european union and a candidate saying he is in favour of greater integration with europe and europe ofa integration with europe and europe of a better kind, as he might see it. how much harder does that make

it. how much harder does that make it for theresa may? my take on is that the eu has to be very careful to see the majority of theresa may when she comes back with a larger mandate, choose one of the strongest heads of government in the whole of europe. it gives her a strong card to play. simply to treat britain like a secessionist country which have to be, if not punished, but the way out in brutal fashion. have to be, if not punished, but the way out in brutalfashion. it have to be, if not punished, but the way out in brutal fashion. it will be the wrong approach will stop i believe a strong mandate for theresa may will be not only good for her but good for the eu because some better sense will be obtained in the negotiations. i am better sense will be obtained in the negotiations. iam not better sense will be obtained in the negotiations. i am not convinced overall that the stronger mandate the british prime minister has.|j think it is not good news for theresa may if it is marine le pen, it is the least of our concerns. if it is the least of our concerns. if it is the least of our concerns. if it is macron, he has said it before. he isa

it is macron, he has said it before. he is a reformer and wants to open up he is a reformer and wants to open up the economy. nobody is very pro—europe. it means theresa may has yet not an ally. he will not try to punish britain but he is like many others, not going to make it easy. the negotiations have not started yet. we saw the irish bred the dutch and the danes form a coalition saying, please don't let trivia catches up on brexit. we need to get to the big ticket items. judged from oui’ to the big ticket items. judged from our national interests, marine le pen be a better result for the uk than macron because she is in favour of countries asserting that independence and leaving the eu but he is not. just as president trump, on the question of the national interests, than president clinton would have been. what does it mean in terms of the relationship? we have had some difficult days since sunday of last week when the german

newspaper published the outcome of what it called the brexit dinner. what was that about chris rock was a deliberate, pre—emptive strike? —— what was that all about? was it a deliberate, pre—emptive strike? what was that all about? was it a deliberate, pre—emptive strike ?m was about telling the position of theresa may not to be delusional. i think it was made worse by what juncker said when he said he was not going to speak british because britain was losing its influence in europe. what a silly thing to say! there is something rather convenient about this row for both sides. for the commission to say, to some of the commission to say, to some of

the other eu leaders who are saying, go on, you have to punish the british because otherwise our countries will do that. make it look like it's difficult otherwise why would you mind jeremy corbyn dummett. it goes with the grown—ups and theresa may. it is that logic. i think there is hostility. in the example we are talking about, i am not dismissing any suggestion of uk foul play along the line. sample we are talking about, it is from brussels. —— in the example we are talking about it was the dinner and it was meant to be private. it was rude. if you are trying to establish an environment of trust where you can speak open and honestly behind closed doors and then there is a lea k closed doors and then there is a leak like this, it is a very bad start. if she talked at this dinner about saying they would not pay anything to leave. she took a

position which was not part of any real negotiation. i am astonished that impartialjournalist to the word of juncker. that impartialjournalist to the word ofjuncker. we do not know what was said. why was she irritated if it got reported? it was supposed to be private. once you get into the game of saying i did say that and did not say that right you are discussing it as well for stuck it is ridiculous what temp adid. the fa ct we is ridiculous what temp adid. the fact we had angela merkel giving the speech were talking to temp aprivately, i am concerned that people in britain are having unreasonable expectations is that that was the real view. —— talking tojuncker that was the real view. —— talking to juncker privately. brussels are now excusing themselves saying, they

understand that sensitivity. it has thrown these grenades into the debate. it seems to have done theresa may no harm. she has said, stop interfering. at the council elections on thursday, all the ukip seats which have been won by the pro—brexit, anti—eu party, which has caused banks, they all fell back again and the tories did very well. it did not do any harm in the uk. it was playing to the gallery. why not do that in the next four weeks of the british election campaign?m will be a landslide for the tories. seen from abroad, from europe perhaps, it was slightly ridiculous seeing her say europe is interfering, meddling in uk politics. well, we have other fish to fry. you cannot resist meddling.

got rid of the greek government put sanctions on the austrians. it is what they do. publicly speaking about the dinner and so forth. it was clearly designed to be heard in the uk. it would have been a duty on her part to react like that. but it is an election campaign and she has to fight back. is there a risk, if she continues down this line, given she continues down this line, given she has to build the negotiations and conceivably convince the british at some point? we did not get everything we wanted but it is still a good deal. i would say, there are some of us, and i include myself in this, he watched that speech you are

decrying and thought, great, finally someone decrying and thought, great, finally someone who is standing up for the uk and there is nothing wrong with that. let's pose the question. a politician would say it is hypothetical but you are all proper a nalysts. hypothetical but you are all proper analysts. i know you will not dodge this one. what happens if there is not a deal? well, i think britain will get on with it, to quote prince philip and his mantra. they are not much of a complaining nation. they will find a way to get out of a sticky corner. britain has always coped with uncertainty is very welcome. lord nelson said, at the battle of trafalgar, nothing is certain ina battle of trafalgar, nothing is certain in a sea fight. something must be left to chance. chance has very many meanings. it could mean opportunities. as a rule, iam not so negative about it. germany could not cope with such a degree of

uncertainty which now hovers about the british future. our nerves would colla pse the british future. our nerves would collapse under the uncertainties of brexit. it really comes down to the technical aspects of what really would happen. is it rules everyone skips back to? are the terrorists going to be differentially complicated? are they going to be queues of ten miles of trucks at each side of the border? the train going across the channel for different parts of it construction. there are all capillary economic stuff. that is the fear, the uncertainty this will all be a mess. there will be less foreign investment from other countries which would think this would be a good base to do europe from. the germans cannot cope with that. they are not supposed to put up what is

the virtue of britain? to make free trade deals with new zealand? and the rest of the world. growth is higher everywhere than the eu. i've fear leaving the eu without the deal. it takes a long time to look at the agreement between canada and europe, which took years and years. when we leave the eu, tariff agreements tend to take a long time because people argue over standards for every item. when we leave the eu, our standard settings will be identical at that point. that means there will be interesting times when one nation will have been creamed off from the eu relatively wealthy, relatively uncorru pt, respecting off from the eu relatively wealthy, relatively uncorrupt, respecting of trade law, copyright and forth. no deal does not concern you? exactly.

i agree about the transition. you say that. that is if there is an agreement and they move onto a transition period while they negotiate a trade agreement. what if there is no deal on brexit? we will leave. we will trade on wta rules. people ask what that means for business. what is interesting is what it means the people, consumers. the european union's in market is a protectionist customs union designed to keep prices in the eu high and to pay more for goods we would otherwise pay less for by importing it. that is in the interests of the british people. why can't they buy from around the world now? because of the customs union. there are low tariffs with the other places. this

sounds far too compensated. let's go some much easier where it is much more simple to understand, where eve ryo ne more simple to understand, where everyone understands the rules of game. when donald trump was talking about the restored middle east peace process , he observed: "i think we're going to make a deal. it might be a bigger and better deal than people in this room even understand". at the time, his remarks provoked incredulity and derision. after all, in trumpland things are always "bigger and better" than what went before. this week, though, after meeting him, the palestinian president mahmoud abbas praised his "courageous stewardship and your wisdom as well as your great negotiating ability" and said there could be an "historic peace treaty" between israel and the palestinians. trump the peacemaker. what is going on? well, ithink, the first trump the peacemaker. what is going on? well, i think, the first thing thatis on? well, i think, the first thing that is going on is he loves getting people like us to talk about it and he has succeeded. i plead guilty. me as well. the temptation of trump is

to make you think maybe he is so different he will break the impasse. maybe with north korea, he was able to stir things up and get the chinese to do something new. i think the problem is, he has no follow—through. he has no ideology. he does not have a background to make this work. look at the s strike in syria. missiles go, what is next? his attention moves on to the next thing. with the middle east, it is fun to stir things up a little bit at the beginning. now what? there has probably been less... i had spent too much time going to these places while former officials were trying to make peace, it gets involved with the core process. it is great to bask in the glow of donald trump for a little while. the israelis are a little concerned about this. already there is

pushback. the tweet that was put onto the twitter account by donald trump saying it was honoured peshmerga he was honoured, we do not know why that happened? —— he was honoured. he has sent his own lawyer to do theirs. the thought of bill clinton with maps talking to yasser arafat at camp david going over individual lines and citizen trying to make the hard calls to make this kind of thing work, that is not donald trump. i was there in camp david in 1978. i donald trump. i was there in camp david in 1978. lam biased. i have known the history of the futile negotiations going on. the problem with donald trump he thinks the world has been created in his own image. he can say these things. he

raises hopes which are unfulfilled. he is playing with people's desire to really make something positive. he cannotjust to really make something positive. he cannot just announce this will happen. we will wait to see what will emerge. his announcement means nothing. in 1982, in the bass, he has hope in tramp. i would be interested to note trump. —— he has hopein interested to note trump. —— he has hope in trump. in the precursor environment, after the non—agreement at camp david and arafat did not go

with it, it is a bit like brexit from the european perspective. nothing is agreed until everything is agreed that began you have got a lot agreed and it falls apart in the middle east. in jerusalem, lot agreed and it falls apart in the middle east. injerusalem, that really in the end is one we can talk about for years and come to a solution. in 1978, they knew personally welcome that the peace agreement was not going to deal with the palestinian issue. as long as you did not get to grips with that, there will be a cloud hanging over there will be a cloud hanging over the whole area you can have a bilateral peace agreement and it will not advance the cause of the palestinian people. what about the argue and that so much time has been spent on the detail? we talked about sitting down with maps and the rest of it. the bold move is what has been lacking. the bold move that jeff was suggesting that could cause people to think afresh in an environment where it almost feels like every option is like that. exactly. that is what donald trump

is doing he has unlocked things by being so different. he did not say he was in favour of a palestinian state. what is he saying he is willing to do? he is saying he is in favour of a two state solution, they we re favour of a two state solution, they were macro state solution. george w bush set that out very clearly. i do not think that has changed. what has changed is the optimism which i think is very good. it may not go anywhere. it would be very bad if the united states president arrives, being a cynical about the situation. we would not say that. we understand outside for saddam limited ability to interfere. the one breakthrough we had in 77, those where players on the ground full if the israeli government have anything to say about that... it was not that jimmy

carter calls that that they could give it a bigger contact. they did it at the time because there was fear that russia could be the ove rlord over what fear that russia could be the overlord over what happened in the middle east. nobody wanted that to happen. it was a bold move by jerusalem. they have a lot more power than it does now and a lot more capacity to make the israelis concerned. now the israelis have managed to make the republican party almost a subsidiary. not really. it is too far. the republicans invited benjamin netanyahu to make a speech. absolutely unprecedented. it is difficult to pushback on israel. nowadays the politics are very hard about that. as trump is finding, just the tiniest bit possible. thank you as always. i would have liked to have been a fly on the ball in the brexit dinner. i think i would be

like to be a fly on the wall for the meeting between donald trump and pope francis. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week at the same time. you can of course comment on the programme. goodbye. hello. mixed fortunes for many of us today. the best of the sunshine further north and west. take a look at this picture from the lake district. there is some rain in the forecast. the day of contrast in the south—west. the isles of scilly,

cornwall and the channel islands seeing some heavy and persistent rain today. we are desperate for some wet weather but it will only be across the extreme south—west. a few showers ahead brushing into devon and somerset. hopefully the drizzle will thin and break from time to time if that does happen then temperatures will respond. again, the western half of scotland but through the highlands, we see highs of 19 degrees. more cloud coming in of 19 degrees. more cloud coming in of the north sea, making it feel cool of the north sea, making it feel cool. there are some lovely spells of sunshine and warmth. this afternoon, we will only see 13, 14 degrees will do if we get the cloud making up, along the south coast, we could see ten pigeons as high as 19. that front will skirt up into the near continent through saturday night into leone hours of monday morning. a quiet night to follow. a fairamount of

morning. a quiet night to follow. a fair amount of cloud with a few isolated showers and fog patches in the north. the wind will strengthen and change direction. we could see some gale force gusts of wind. head further west, more shelter and more warmth to go with it. nine, 10 degrees. with sunshine coming through, getting up to 18 degrees is not out of the question on sunday. this is set for the early half of next week as well put up a good deal of dry weather in the story. there will be some changes to the theme of the weather. we have seen the best of the weather in the west. temperatures around 18, 20 one. there is a change of feel from the north west in particular. 0n the east coast it has been quite bleak. a lot of low cloud and a breeze coming in off the sea has made it feel cold. we could see things warm

up feel cold. we could see things warm up and get a little brighter. take care. this is bbc news, the headlines: back on the campaign trail — jeremy corbyn says labour faces an "historic" challenge to win back power. theresa may says she's not taking anything for granted. a penny in the pound on income tax to generate billions more for the nhs and social care — a pledge from the liberal democrats. paul nuttall says ukip has a bright future and voters will return in their droves if theresa may fails to deliver on brexit. french presidential candidate, emmanuel macron, says he's been the target of a massive hacking attack the day before france goes to the polls. determined to get back behind the wheel — the teenage british racing driver who lost both legs in a formula four crash. also in the next hour: the boogie wonderland of bakers — hoping to rise to the occasion.