that's a summary of the news, newsday is coming up at midnight — now on bbc news it's time for newsnight. was this the week that changed the election? we talk to the man that invented the swingometer, david butler, who tells me he's never seen anything like it. anything may happen. the movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger movement that has occurred in any previous election. and our panel is back to make sense of an extraordinary seven days. donald trump's time abroad comes to a close. butjust what is awaiting him at home with the russia investigation? it would be a terrible thing if someone who was president of the —— president of the united states knowingly profited of laundering money for criminals. it would be even worse if the president of the united states‘ business profited of laundering money for the russian state. and divided britain —

katie razzall looks at the faultlines on the question of scottish independence. i would hate to separate from the uk. i would love — i'm quite happy to be part of the british isles, just not the uk. you haven't really got the choice i you've got a really big hammer drill. hello. good evening. remember those heady days when this election seemed boring? when we were sick of the stage managed, unwavering adjectives on offer? many feared the electoral outcome had already been written on something more permanent than the fated ed stone. but this week shattered all of that. this was the script no one wrote. a week that began with a monumental uturn, soon forgotten in the torment of manchester's attack.

and from its wake, a campaign that emerged refocussed —on national security and foreign policy. a poll today showed labour slashing the conservative lead to five points. we'll be speaking to david butler in a moment — the psephologist who has seen more from the frontline of electoral history than anyone else alive. so is this a question of voters genuinely changing their minds? of rogue polls? or of a nation too shattered to know what it thinks right now? david grossman has our first report. nothing has changed. has she done another u—turn, jeremy? apparently, yes, apparently. blimey, you can't trust this woman. at the beginning of the week the election looked very different. theresa may's unprecedented manifesto u—turn on the social care was dominating the headlines and labour was sensing an opportunity. and then... it might appear unseemly, callous even, to ask what impact the dreadful events in manchester will have on a general election campaign. but it is undeniable the campaign was interrupted. and it has now restarted. re—focused on new themes, security, on terrorism. it is also undeniable that how

we see our party leaders is partly informed by how they respond to profound events. the solutions they offer. it's the stuff of politics. it's what elections are all about. restarting campaigning today, jeremy corbyn gave his assessment of the lessons of the manchester attack. he said labour would reverse police cuts. he also outlined what he saw as some of the causes of terrorism. many experts, including professionals in our intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections between wars that we've been involved in all supported and fought in in other countries, such as libya, and terrorism here at home. that assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our children. and informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response that will protect the security of our people. at the end of his speech,

mr corbyn declined to take any questions. and then made a dash for the back door. however, later, he faced a grilling on the bbc from andrew neil. they're targeting young girls at a pop concert because they hate our values. they said they hate secular, liberal societies. it's not foreign policy. i agree they hate those liberal values, they hate the idea of women being able to enjoy themselves, and all the liberal values. that was the whole point of my speech this morning. we've got to defend our liberal values. where is the foreign policy? what was the foreign policy of sweden that resulted in sweden being attacked? the foreign policy issue has to be for all of us. what is happening in a number of countries, where we've intervened. meanwhile the prime minister was in sicily at the g—7 summit, working, she said, without

international partners to fight terrorism. at the same time, jeremy corbyn has said that terror attacks in britain are our own fault. and he's chosen to do that just a few days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities we have experienced in the united kingdom. i want to make one thing very clear, tojeremy corbyn and to you, and it is that there can never, ever be an excuse for terrorism. but what impact, if any, is this having on the polls? a yougov poll immediately after theresa may called the election in april had the tories sitting on a 2k point lead. the latest poll, conducted after the manchester attack, has the lead shrunk to just five points. so far, based on the evidence we've seen, it doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact.

certainly anything that moves the conversation in the direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will benefit conservatives because from polling before manchester it was clear they had quite a big lead in that area. there doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. the big impact seems to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an conservatives. there's no guarantee something like this, a big national security emergency, helps the incoming government. in spain it had the opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the government had handled it. it cuts both ways. the opposition as well, if labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the government, that could rebound on to labour. there is now another interruption in the campaign for the bank holiday weekend. by the time the population goes back to work on tuesday will politics still be dominated by security and terrorism issues or will it be something else? sir david butler is to psephology what shakespeare is to dramaturgy, a veteran who has seen elections come and go since the 1950s. today he told me this movement

of opinion in the polls was a bigger one than had occurred in any previous election. over drinks this afternoon, we discussed the latest polls, the effect of the manchester bombing and whether we could be dealing with a shy tory or a shy labour phenomenon, making the numbers tricky. you, david butler, are a psephologist. —— you, david butler, are a psephologist. what does it mean? it means a student of elections. i'm afraid it's an awful, silly academicjoke which somebody else perpetrated and i put in print about eight years ago. now it hangs like an albatross around my neck. david, how do you see this election campaign in terms of the many that you have been through? well, it's very different from any one before. i'm rather glad that i'm not writing about it as i have written about

virtually every election since 1945. this time, what happened in manchester transforms things, and it seems to be having an impact on the opinion polls. the election came unexpectedly, but when it came it looked like a very expedient thing done by the conservatives, looking to a large majority. they may still get a large majority, but it doesn't look likely to be nearly as big as they had expected. do you think that the events in manchester will have an impact on the ultimate result? i can't think that they won't. they seem already to have done in the opinion polls to have made a difference to expectations. and they may make a bigger difference, but there may be a swing back. anything may happen. the movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger movement than has occurred in any previous election. so you have never seen this big

a swing, if you like, from one party to another during a campaign? no. there have been movements and late swings that have helped the conservatives on a couple of occasions. is your sense that the change of policy or the policy on dementia tax has really upset people? something has happened out there. we shall have to wait and see. i have not been very cautious in the past about making predictions, but i am far more cautious now than ever before. it obviously looks like an conservative victory because they are still ahead in the polls and they would win if votes were level. they would win in seats. so the conservatives need not despair. but the labour party can obviously feel much happier now than at any point in the last few weeks. how do u—turns turn out, generally?

well, there haven't been major u—turns. the u—turn last week was a bigger u—turn than i can recall at any election since 1945. does it feel to you that we have gone back to a two—party syste m now ? well, to a large extent, we can't say that because of scotland. and northern ireland is quite outside the scene. we can only talk about england and wales. and that, i think, will still show, as past elections have had, relatively uniform swings. it is interesting how in past elections, swing has been surprisingly uniform. when you have got ten seats in, you can predict the final result without great inaccuracy in all the elections i have been doing. so in england and wales, then, the swingometer is very much alive and well? certainly. i would agree. and if there a moment or is there a seat that you will be looking out for in particular on the night? i think we will know

the result by midnight. if there are a dozen seats declared between 10.50, when the first seat got out last time, and midnight, if we have a dozen seats then, we will have a good idea of what is happening. and whether the things the polls suggesting are happening or not. i hope you're wrong, because we have a long night of work ahead of us after midnight! i have neverfound the nights long. i shall be happy to sit up all night watching the results and modifying. ifjeremy corbyn wins this election, what will be the magnitude of the challenge that he has overcome? it would be overwhelming in terms of both the swing in votes he has achieved, but also, of course, the programme and the things he has said he would do. it would be enormous and would have great repercussions in the market and elsewhere if he were to win. this is a very key election, and the alternative outcomes,

conservative victory and labour victory, are more extremely different than at any election in my lifetime. you've recently joined twitter, where everything has to be said in 140 characters. if you had to sum up your election prediction in 140 characters or thereabouts, what would it be? oh, i think it would be "the conservatives will win, but by nothing like the margin they were expecting to win by two weeks ago". sir david, thank you very much indeed. round about mo, he was counting. so onjune 9th, will we look back and think this was the week that changed everything? or will this have been a momentary blip — albeit it in tragic circumstances — that actually did little to shift peoples voting opinions.

let's ask the panel. paul mason is a guardian columnist and a labour supporter. iain dale is a conservative broadcaster and the managing director of biteback publishing. and down the line from salford, jennifer williams is the political editor of the manchester evening news. it's great to have you all. jennifer, i'll start with you because this is a completely different campaign, at least it feels that, to the one we were expecting. campaigning has come back with a vengeance. does it feel like manchester is ready for that to resume at this sort of level? i think in manchester and not sure people are focusing on the general election campaign now. as the campaign kicks back on, i suppose it started again with ukip yesterday... it's easy to think we're back into the swing. in manchester it's been four days. people aren't yet in a position to really process the information. we're still a city in shock. i can only really speak from a personal perspective... it feels very soon—to—be back to electioneering again. for a personal perspective, somebody who lives in manchester, it does feel too soon. i spoke to a few senior labour people

around here before i came out this evening and their opinion onjeremy corbyn‘s timing and the content of his speech varied from poorer too crass to live it was one of the messages i got back. —— poor to crass to livid, was on of the messages i got back. particularly on the timing, though a lot of people were disagreeing on the content and analysis. i feel it's very soon—to—be back into it. we in politics and journalism have a tendency to think of this attack, this warlike murderous attack on our country, was an interruption to something more important, which is the election. not just in manchester, all over the country

people feel the important thing is the war we're in. the war? we're in a war with is and people realise we are against an enemy that wants to kill little girls. every family, everybody sitting around the television and the table is thinking about that. in that sense it is very unfortunate we've had to restart the election. yet, you know, you cannot avoid the national security implications. labour in no way can sit there and avoid... when conservative central office treats —— tweets tonight that jeremy corbyn is on the side of our enemies. if he's on the side of our enemies he shouldn't be in parliament. of course, he's not on the side of our enemies. i think the weird thing is, what we all need to do is avoid jumping the shark. we need to avoid raising this in this acute moment of national mourning into a position where everybody turns around and starts going... it's you, you're the one. did you take that on board? do you think it's the conservatives who politicised something that was the campaign?

i read jeremy corbyn's speech. i could have said virtually all but paul said. it does seem odd that in an election, it is a bare knuckle fight. it ought to be a bare knuckle fight about the future of our country and democracy. all parties will now have to be careful about the tone and set. some people say the conservatives have gone overboard in their attack on jeremy corbyn today. do you think so? it is unfortunate that he said what he said about foreign policy in his speech. that could have waited, but labour had to get on the front foot because this week, when there is a national emergency, the prime minister gets all the airtime. it is natural that that happens. the opposition always find it hard to get on the front foot. so jeremy corbyn was right to try and get on the front foot. his advisers were right about the speech, but they misjudged the tone of some of it.

will bring a lot of people with him? potentially, but at the moment it is too early to say. campaigning hasn't started in earnest, so no one has been out at the doors yet. we don't know how people are feeling or how peoplgwill respcmtk to come back to what i was saying about being days. four days ago, jeremy corbyn was standing on a stage with amber rudd in manchester and the whole point of it was that it was a nonpolitical occasion where people were not that was not the purpose of it. and that was received very well by manchester. it was politicians together, paying their respects, showing that they cared and they understood the magnitude of this and they were not using it as a platform. i think it is yet to be seen how people will respond to political points being made a few days later.

are people saying tojeremy corbyn, you have got to start taking the election back, or is there a difficulty? they know they are underdogs from beginning to end. there are parts of labour hq that do not have conversations with other parts of labour hq. the corbyn team have always known they are underdogs. they have always had the strategy to make people talk the kind of country you want to live in. after brexit. do they still feel like underdogs with today's pulls? yes, because labour's problem electorally is that all those votes are piled up in the wrong places. you can be an 38—40, an amazing position that ed miliband would kill for, but it could all be

in labour strongholds. they know that. what they wanted at the beginning was for this to be about brexit because of the unfortunate fact that it is not about brexit. iain, are people wobbling now? there is a wobble going on, absolutely. there are people who think a disaster for the conservatives. not necessarily the last few days, but certainly the u—turn. or the policy itself? it was not a well thought out policy. everybody can see that. believe it or not, there are parts of the conservative campaign headquarters that don't talk to other parts. so who is getting the blame for that? conservative candidates are blaming nick timothy for that. %

was drawn up some the policies in it. there is nothing eye—catching in it. jennifer, do you think people will look at this week of the election and say this was when everything changed? clearly, you are speaking first and foremost as a manchester citizen, but with your political editor hat on, do you think this will be the week when the election changed, or will it be sucked into the overall campaign and people will revert to normal? i think it is going to change the narrative of it. if at the start of the week, people were talking about the dementor tax and social care, at the end of the week we are talking about isis and insecurity —— people were talking about the dementia tax. i think it's inevitable. there are only two weeks to go. it is difficult to say. we all thought the jo cox

murder in the referendum was a game changer. i thought that was it for leave, because however it pans out, people will associate the person that did this with leave. it didn't work out like that. so it is difficult to sit here now and say this is what will happen. i think the conservatives will make this a presidential campaign. they will try and get brexit back onto the agenda. that is what this election was supposed to be about. david davis was supposed to make a big speech about that today. i assume he didn't because he didn't want to deflect attention from jeremy corbyn. paul, do you think these polls reflect where labour is now and how well they could do?