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tv   The Election Wrap  BBC News  June 5, 2017 7:30pm-8:01pm BST

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has taken centre stage. when you've been home secretary for a record breaking six years you leave a paper trail of policies. well theresa may has had to defend her record on keeping us all safe, afterjeremy corbyn backed calls for her to resign. tim farron and nicola sturgeon will be grilled this evening by a question time audience in scotland, and security, is bound to feature. as the tories set their sights on making substantial gains across the midlands, we look at two key battle grounds — in cheltenham and birmingham edgbaston. from a landslide tory majority to a hung parliament, polls seem to be making all sorts of contradictory calls. but do you think they are science or do you think they are fiction? they haven't got it right recently. 0k, thank you very much. and people lie. people lie? maybe i was lying there. and mulling all this over — my guests the guardian columnist owen jones, and katy balls of the spectator. let's bring you up to date with the latest from the campaign
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trail, and understandably, the focus has been on preventing future terrorist attacks, after the grim events of saturday night. jeremy corbyn‘s been campaigning in the north—east, saying he'd back calls for the prime minister to stand down. that she was responsible as home secretary, for cuts in police numbers. but he clarified his comments in an interview with our alex forsyth. i'm not backing away from anything. what i'm saying is there is an election on now, there's a choice before everybody. i'm articulating what is a deep anger amongst those people that have seen 20,000 police officers lose theirjobs and firefighters lose theirjobs, seeing ambulance crews unable to cope with the services they're under. i think she as home secretary needs to think about what she did when she was home secretary. so she shouldn't resign? i just want to be clear. she shouldn't resign? let's be very clear, there is an election on, everybody has a choice and a lot of people are very angry and a lot
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of people would have wanted her to resign were she still the home secretary. the choice is going to be made on thursday by the people of this country. but theresa may, in edinburgh with the scottish conservative leader ruth davidson, defended her record, and hit back at mr corbyn. we have been protecting counterterrorism police, we've provided funding for an uplift in armed policing. we have, from 2015, been protecting police budgets, like isaid. the labour party, jeremy corbyn's front bench, said police budgets could be cut by up to 10%. we said, no, we're going to protect those budgets. but it's also about the powers that you give to the police. and i have been responsible through a number of pieces of legislation that i have introduced, to give extra powers to the police to deal with terrorism. jeremy corbyn has boasted that he is opposed every piece of anti—terror legislation since he came into parliament. but it wasn'tjust labour mrs may had to fend off. the lib dem leader tim farron, took time off preparing breakfast in a cafe, to take aim at the pm,
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with his own stinging attack. this is a point that we look at how we keep our country and our people safe and as things stand we have a prime minister who told off the police for saying that they were crying wolf, and that was at the time when she was responsible for making cuts in our police numbers, in every part of our country, and today she stands and says enough is enough. well, enough was enough the first time this happened. this is the moment we stand behind our police and security services, the one thing we know will make us safer is investing in our police. and scotland's first minister, nicola sturgeon, has weighed in, over police numbers in england. i think theresa may has to outline what she thinks it means. nobody can escape the fact that theresa may has been home secretary for the past numberof been home secretary for the past number of years before she was prime minister. she presided over significant cuts in policing in
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england, and there is lots of concern about that. security is one of the most important priorities for any government. scotland are not immune from these threats. we have invested to maintain police numbers and we have seen in recent times and increase in the numbers of trained armed police officers we have got. while the ukip leader, paul nuttall, says the issue of police numbers, was one of many mrs may, misjudged. i think she has got it wrong over the police cuts and also she has got it wrong over border guard cuts and cuts to the prison service. i'm not sure these comments have much legitimacy coming from somebody like jeremy corbyn, somebody who has called hamas and hezbollah his friends, to attack theresa may on theissue friends, to attack theresa may on the issue of terrorism is a weak point forjeremy corbyn. katie and owen are with us. it has been a fascinating debate today on this whole security issue after the terrible events of the weekend because we have two leaders who have
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taken because we have two leaders who have ta ke n two because we have two leaders who have ta ken two different because we have two leaders who have taken two different aspects of the debate, policing numbers, and the powers of the police. both leaders are running away from their past and their comments and their policies in relation to those two issues.” don't think the conservatives ever imagined they would be on the defence over security when the campaign started. by focusing on police numbers and police cuts labour have put theresa may on the back foot today and she is really having to explain why she made those decisions and what the link might be between police numbers and the recent attacks we have had. the powers of the police and comments jeremy corbyn has made in the past,.. jeremy corbyn has made in the past, . .. what do jeremy corbyn has made in the past,... what do you mean by those comments? comments saying his proud of the fact he has voted down anti—terror legislation. of the fact he has voted down anti-terror legislation. theresa may voted against the anti—terror legislation as well. what people can conclude is that theresa may has shown throughout this campaign she
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isa shown throughout this campaign she is a threat to national security and the two reasons for that either she has been home secretary for six of the last seven years in this country and in that period 20,000 police office rs have lost and in that period 20,000 police officers have lost theirjobs. there has been a net reduction in overall of police numbers. she accused the police in 2015, not that long ago, of crying wolf and of scaremongering because of what they said would be the impact of those police cuts. that is one aspect which she has to be held to account for. the other is her alliance, she has tried to be ever closer to a saudi dictatorship which is at the epicentre of exporting international extremism, which is a threat to national security and the security of every single person watching this programme. i asked aboutjeremy corbyn. can i be honest here, we have the entire british press at the moment ranged against the opposition leader. i am trying to redress the balance. interns are jeremy corbyn,
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his record is twofold. 0ne balance. interns are jeremy corbyn, his record is twofold. one is opposing the cuts to the police numbers, which the home secretary and prime minister theresa may is directly responsible for. she is responsible for reducing police numbers, jeremy corbyn opposed those cuts. the second point on the saudi dictatorship which chops the heads off people for being gay, which chops the heads of people for being dissidents and treats women in the most abominable way possible and is exporting an ideology. in this country as well as other countries, which is a threat to national security. owen! i want which is a threat to national security. owen! iwant to which is a threat to national security. owen! i want to hear katie. thank you very much. say something. on police numbers there are two things, there is a question of do we have enough police on the streets of the uk? and the question is would more police have stopped the recent terror attacks? if you look at the one on saturday it was within eight minutes the armed police were there since the first call. i don't know if more police would have me back quicker. but the
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bottom line for voters is that police numbers fell after 2010. so thatis police numbers fell after 2010. so that is a difficult conundrum, isn't it? definitely but i think what the conservatives need to do and what they should be doing is talk about whether that is an issue in itself and also does that issue relate to these terror attacks? we had lord ki lyle who has been very involved in terror legislation today who said it isa terror legislation today who said it is a separate conversation than looking at whether it could have stopped the terror attacks. we had the army on our streets and the reason we have the army on our streets is because the police didn't have the resources to police the streets of this country in the aftermath of that horrendous bombing in manchester. the truth is the police are asking, and have asked over and over police are asking, and have asked overand overagain for police are asking, and have asked over and over again for more resources. the metropolitan police commissioner cressida dick has to be careful about not intervening in a general election, went on radio this morning said they need more resources. resources have been slashed and cut by theresa may, home secretary and prime minister of this country, and it's notjust police we
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are talking about, we are talking about armed police. armed police have been reduced by about 1000 in the last few years. this morning a government minister went through a series of excruciating interviews because she refused to accept, or even answer the fact, that the last few years those armed police numbers have been slashed. the reality is as i have said people have to ask themselves a question. if the prime minister has systematically slashed police numbers and armed police numbers, and is kowtowing to a saudi dictatorship which is exporting international extremism in this country and other countries, is she a threat herself to national security? the reason i ask is because today steve hilton, the former head of strategy for david cameron, a conservative adviser, demanded her resignation because of that. he is not a lefty. steve hilton is not... it's not that dramatic, is made a habit of going for his former colleagues, we saw him turn on david cameron in the
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campaign. ok, we will rejoin you in a couple of minutes but first. one of the conservatives' key election targets is in the midlands. 20 years ago gisela stuart won the birmingham edgbaston constituency for labour, ending a century of tory success. but now the prominent leave campaigner is standing down, and the conservatives are confident they can win it back, with a candidate who's the great—great granddaughter of one of the city's most famous sons. kathryn stanczyszyn, assesses her chances. when edgbaston turned red in 1997 it hailed a new dawn for a new labour. gisela stuart has held the seat for 20 years in the last two elections bucking the national trend but as she steps down, can labour hang onto it? due to her campaigning you have the hospital, investment in new street station in the way it was. no matter what that's a labour mp with labour values, matter what that's a labour mp with labourvalues, independent matter what that's a labour mp with labour values, independent thinking for this constituency and that is
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what is required for this constituency, somebody independent, that's what they will get with me. edgbaston was home to one of birmingham's famous sons, a businessman and politician, and now his great, great granddaughter is determined to be one too. the polls have been buried in terms of what they think the chances are. the response i'm getting on the doorstep is positive, i'm meeting labour voters who cannot stomach the idea ofjeremy corbyn being prime minister of this country and they say they are prepared to switch. edgbaston is the kind of seat people pay close attention to, particularly this time around when a popular mp is retiring. so what would it take for the conservatives to turn this seat blue? in 2015 gisela stuart got 18,500 votes compared to the conservatives' 15,500, she 18,500 votes compared to the conservatives'15,500, she doubled her majority but it still narrowed, just under 3000 in it. edgbaston‘s four wards are diverse, harborne and edgbaston are fairly affluent, by
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the green and quinton less so, big employers include the hospital and university. ukip are not standing but where the 10% of the vote goes will be crucial. history is likely to repeat itself, though, in the proud tradition of edgbaston returning a woman, dating back to edith pitt and gill might. it will bea edith pitt and gill might. it will be a defining victory, but for who? kathryn stanczyszyn, midlands today, edgbaston. there are three other candidates standing in birmingham edgbaston, and here's a full list. tonight sees the last of the bbc‘s special question time programmes featuring the party leaders. tim farron and nicola sturgen are in the hot seat, before a studio audience in edinburgh. it had originally been scheduled for yesterday, but was postponed after the london bridge terror attack. it has been a busy day for the parties and are scotland's editor has been giving is a rundown ahead
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of tonight's event. it has been a busy couple of days of campaigning and two or three days until the election. theresa may on about trust again, who do you trust to get the best deal on brexit? herself or jeremy corbyn. conservative asked of —— activists gave a round of applause to her. she characterised herself as a passionate unionist, again making a point between brexit and the union. nicola sturgeon saying the own way to stop the tories who have had a damaging impact on this economy in scotland, the way to bring them in was to stop the way to bring them in was to stop the snp. kezia dugdale said only labour, onlyjeremy corbyn can oust theresa may from downing street, in the same sort of thing about the strategy and tactical point. tim farron, liberal democrat leader, also in scotland, saying the only plausible alternative to the snp in scotla nd plausible alternative to the snp in scotland is the liberal democrats
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and said that was true across many constituencies in the uk. scotland political editor brian taylor. the debate is live on bbc one tonight at 9pm and later on the news channel at midnight. well one key reasons the conservatives' gained an unlikely majority in the 2015 election, wasbecause of the stunning collapse of the liberal democrats. the tories took 27 seats from nick clegg's party. holding them this time round, could be key to staying in government. one of those seats is cheltenham in gloucestershire, where the lib dems will have to overturn a six and a half thousand strong majority, to win it. ben godfrey has been to the spa town, to check out the mood. at oak—wood children's centre in cheltenham they are bringing families together and the candidates to become the town's next mp need not look any further for a sense of unease about cuts to health and social care. when i first had him i started here and there was a group called best start and it has been
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stopped because there was a 52% budget cut. it's very much the nhs, we have great facilities here and it is making sure they continue, that is making sure they continue, that isa is making sure they continue, that is a big concern for me. the lib dems held cheltenham between 1992 and 2015, it was a safe seat until the conservatives took it with a 12% majority. and in case you are wondering, 56% voted to remain in the eu. but voters have been more engaged in issues around fair funding for schools and services at cheltenham general hospital. in 2013 under the conservative liberal democrat coalition government the a&e unit there was closed overnight and at weekends with serious cases being taken to gloucester. a—for potential cheltenham mps want a rethink and have different ideas about finding the money. labour will put a massive increase in funding into the nhs, 37 billion overfive yea rs. into the nhs, 37 billion overfive years. we need to remove privatisation from the nhs because that's taking money out of the nhs
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through profit. we need to train doctors and nurses and pay them appropriately for what they do. we'd like to put a penny on income tax and get the cash into the nhs straightaway and enable local trusts like ours to make improvements like faster and better mental health services, and as a top priority to restore the aimi. these ideas are pipe dreams unless there is a strong economy generating the tax revenues and that is why it is so vital to secure it under theresa may. for the liberal democrats this seat is a must win to revive their political fortunes. ben godfrey, bbc midlands today, cheltenham. you may have been somewhat bemused by the opinion polls this weekend. a whole flurry came out — 0pinium, icm, youguv, you name it — predicting various leads for the conservatives of anywhere between 1% and 12%. confused? you might well be. adam fleming took his box of balls to london's south bank to investigate. meet the mighty mood box, used on our sister programme
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daily politics to find out what people really think. i'm taking it to london's southbank centre to ask people's views about being asked their views. and here's the question we're asking the great british public today. 0pinion polls: are they science orfiction? 0n the day they never seem to come out as planned previously, so i think it's an element of fiction to it. everyone's talking about the polls. i've no idea! 0k, throw it back in then, very honest, very honest. it isn't an exact science, is it? because what people say about what they are going to do isn't necessarily what they're going to do. here's someone who juggles data for a living. pollsterjoe twyman of yougov. what do you think about this as an opinion—gathering method? well, as my idol peter snow would say it's just a bit of fun. when you're looking
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to do an accurate scientific poll you hope to accurately represent the population you're trying to survey in the sample that takes part in that survey. and so for instance you need the right number of old people, the right number of young people and men and women etc. after the last election the professionals realised they didn't have the right number of tory supporters and had spoken to too many labour voters. i think some people don't always say what they think. that's the problem. particularly tory voters. the shy tory thing? yeah, shy tory. people don't want to admit it? yeah, i agree. are you a shy tory? medium to shy. they haven't got it right recently. 0k, thank you very much. people lie. people lie? maybe i was lying there. oh no! and why are different polling companies coming up with such different results? here's a theory.
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usually you could come up with four or five reasons why pollsters are coming up with different numbers but on this occasion there is something quite straightforward going on, and it's whether or not you believe that young people and people who didn't turn out in the last general election in 2015, who now say that they're going to, whether they actually do. if you believe them then it's a closer race. those pollsters who are saying it's a three orfour point lead are more likely to be right. if, like me, and at icm, you tend to be suspicious of people saying that they're going to change behaviours which are fairly embedded in historical precedent, then you should believe the likes of me and i'm saying currently it's a 12 point or so lead for the tories. guys, i'm doing a survey about opinion polls. in other words, are we all asking too many youngsters and people who won't vote at all? you're too little, i'm afraid. it's grown—ups. do you pick up the newspaper every day going, i wonder what the polls are saying today? no, i'm pretty sure what the polls are going to say. which is? theresa may still ahead but labour squeezing in there. yougov has suggested that would result in a hung parliament
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but did they really? based on the current polling we produced a broad range of possible outcomes. at the time that was anything from 274 to 3115 seats the conservatives might get. you need 326 for a majority, so at that time it was possible that a hung parliament could occur. if there was an election that day. the headline was yougov predicts hung parliament, that was just one potential outcome. what you often see during election campaigns is that the interpretation of the polls, whether it's by broadcasters or the media, or social media, is somewhat different from the interpretation of the polls that we put out. after three sweltering hours of doing this. who's got some opinions they'd like to share with me? maybe the politicians have a point. the polls are fascinating snapshots but it's the one onjune 8th that is the most accurate.
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well, there we go, a big majority of people here on the southbank think the opinion polls are more fiction than science. and here ends probably the dodgiest opinion poll in british electoral history. iam i am with adam on that one. that was very dodgy indeed. katie, most people think it is fiction rather than signs, the fact of the matter is we all follow them. we promise every year, is we all follow them. we promise every yea r, every is we all follow them. we promise every year, every election, every referendum, never to listen to the polls because we follow them and they turn out to be wrong but an exciting poll comes in and we spend a day talking about it and writing about it. if you look at the polls so far you can see that although they all have different figures they all seem to agree on the fact that the tories started off with a very big lead and labour have been making up big lead and labour have been making up ground. yes, that is incontrovertible, 0wen, isn't it?
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that has given succour to the labour campaign and given them a certain amount of liftoff. how much do you believe in these polls because they are all over the place? believe in these polls because they are all over the place ?|j believe in these polls because they are all over the place? i am a bit ofa are all over the place? i am a bit of a poll sceptic. 0n brexit they we re of a poll sceptic. 0n brexit they were not that 0fcom i thought we would leave because of the polling. 0n trump, hillary clinton won a bit majority of the popular vote. the problem with theresa may is lots of people have basically found her the less people like her. the reason for thatis less people like her. the reason for that is she has a record of being inconsistent and dishonest. she said there would be no early election over and over again. we are talking about the polls! the polls man! we're talking about why the poll has narrowed. what is the point in having a chin stroking chat about them? i'm going to stroke my chin now. i will keep going, the reason the polls have narrowed is because she has a record of saying things she has a record of saying things she goes back on, early election, not increasing national insurance, she then tried to go back on what
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she then tried to go back on what she went back on in the first place. integration targets, she said it would be reduced to the tens of thousand and it hasn't got close. she was a remainer who reinvented herself as a hard—core brexiteer command the dementia tax when she tried to impose a 100% inheritance tax, so the reasons why the polling has narrowed, and it's not clear from the polls about how much it has narrowed, i would still think the odds are stacked against labour. the reason they have narrowed is a lot of people look at theresa may based on what she has said and done trust it. katie, owen really wants to talk about the conservatives, so you cancelled about labour. so, tell me why you think labour have done so well to narrow those polls? what is it they have done? i think it is two things. they started off from such a low bar, jeremy corbyn did, lots of people were surprised when he seemed likeable in lots of his media
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appearances. secondly, the ma nifestos appearances. secondly, the manifestos are often said not to matter but the labour manifesto has lots of popular policies where is the conservative manifesto seemed to be built on the assumption they didn't really need to bother because jeremy corbyn, we don't need to woo voters and we don't need to give them a reason to vote for us. for lots of people if you ask them why they vote conservative it would be a negative reason, because you don't likejeremy negative reason, because you don't like jeremy corbyn and negative reason, because you don't likejeremy corbyn and that's not a successful campaign message. that's an interesting point because lots of the time the source of policies labour have put forward have been vilified by much of the press and many politicians. but the reality is the polling bears it out and most people think the more well off should pay more tax and we should use that to invest in public services. most people do believe that certain utilities like rail, water and energy should be not run by foreign governments and private companies but by the government that they vote in. and that most people, millions of people, think should we
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saddle young people with debt for going to university? the reason i say that is we don't know how the election will pan out, the odds are still against labour. but i would say to people without getting a tiny little violin out, i feel like a lonely voice in the media on those policies, millions of people support those policies and they have got traction because of the fact people do like them but they haven't got the airing until now. they certainly got an airing, they suddenly got box office reception, and all of a sudden people went i quite like these ideas. i understand why in a poll people would say they like what labour are offering but people often say in polls the labour vote is overestimated. which is true. that is partly the credibility issue. you might like them but it's ultimately whether voters when they get to the ballot box really believe they can vote for them and they can handle these things. its turnout force of these things. its turnout force of the problem labour have which they must focus on is getting people who
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say they will vote labour to get out and vote. i will end it now, owen and vote. i will end it now, owen and katie, it has been good having you, despite my protestations! many thanks for that and to you for watching. now it's time for the weather but thank you for watching the election wrap. bye bye. not very pleasant out there today at all. in fact, the bad weather will continue through tonight, it will continue through tonight, it will continue with the heavy rain across many parts of the country and those winds, if anything, tomorrow might even be stronger in the midland areas. the cloud has been shrouding the uk over the last few hours or so, the heaviest of the rain has been across these more western and south—western areas and now through the course of the evening the heavy rain is pushing into south—western scotland, the lake district, central, east in scotland, this more northern part of the country, and to
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the south the winds will swing to more northern part of the country, and to the south the winds will swing to moor lane north—westerly and it will be blowing hard particularly around the coastal areas. a blustery picture. low— pressure areas. a blustery picture. low—pressure slap bang over us, looking at the isobars it looks more like autumn rather than june. looking at the isobars it looks more like autumn rather thanjune. you will notice there is a window of slightly better weather at this stage, 8am across the south of wales and the south—west, more sunshine but remember it's very windy. these are average winds on the arrows, it could be costing close to 50 mph on those coasts, strong for the time of year and it will whip up the trees. the rain continues to fall in the morning across many parts of scotland, certainly central and eastern areas in the borders. through the course of the day it stays wet across northern parts of england and scotland, the strong north to north—westerly winds continue across wales, central and southern england, and here rather thanit southern england, and here rather than it being overcast is quite bright and occasional blustery showers, whereas further north and
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east it will be cloudy with rain on and off through the day and also some strong winds blowing through. so, an unpleasant day for some of us tomorrow, and the rain in the north will continue into tomorrow evening. as we head into wednesday the low— pressure as we head into wednesday the low—pressure pulls out into the north sea. we have a window of better weather, the next weather system coming in here. for wednesday we anticipate drier and brighter weather, the winds will be brighter, lighter, it will feel warmer, 20 in london, fresher in the north, and rain later in the day moving into the south—west and then it is all over again, cloud and the south—west and then it is all overagain, cloud and rain the south—west and then it is all over again, cloud and rain spilling through over thursday. these are south—westerly winds so they may feel warmer and it may brighten up in the south—east. bye bye. this is bbc news. i'm clive myrie. the headlines at 8pm. police have named two of the three men responsible for the london bridge attack. they‘ re khuram butt and rachid redouane. a vigil has been held in central london to commemorate
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the seven people who died, and 48 others injured in saturday's attack. the first victim to be named is 30—year—old christine archibald from canada. the sister of james mcmullan says she believes her brother is also among the dead. the investigation continues. a number of people are detained after police raid more addresses in east london. security has taken centre—stage in the election campaign. labour and the conservatives have clashed over police numbers, and who's best placed to protect the country. one other story this evening — the actor peter sallis,
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