a warm welcome. the discussions in the germany city of hamburg this weekend involving the world's leaders, come at a delicate time for the world order. north korea; climate change; the immigration crisis; trump in europe, the list goes on. iain — president trump now tells us there's going to be a very fast trade deal. yes, so it seems. good news for britain, and bad news. the good news there seems to be a trade deal. the bad news, donald trump has confirmed at some point he's coming to the uk. depending on one's review. britain isa depending on one's review. britain is a very divided country. he may do us is a very divided country. he may do usa is a very divided country. he may do us a service, uniting britain against such a visit. the other big story out of the 620 is the weakening of american power. i am

reminded, having seen a lot of these summits some are thinking back to the violence in nice, 6enoa. this backdrop of chaos and extreme violence, 15 years ago, these events we re violence, 15 years ago, these events were about american power, the projection of american power. america solving the world's problems. that is now clearly no longer the place. power has become diffused. we focus on trump for obvious reasons, he is entertaining, controversial figure. obvious reasons, he is entertaining, controversialfigure. he is not as powerful as he thinks. 0r controversialfigure. he is not as powerful as he thinks. or as a lot of americans think. everybody is nodding around the table. of americans think. everybody is nodding around the tablelj of americans think. everybody is nodding around the table. i do agree with what you have just said. the violence we are seeing on the streets hamburg this weekend is the perfect metaphor for international diplomacy. intense passions have been aroused. the principal person

responsible is donald trump's position as the alleged leader of the free world. hardly an environment for constructive policy making. in the past, summits of these kind used to be all about adhesion and problem solving. —— cohesion. now all about pr and showboating. all the leaders marching off to the next meeting. posing for these endless pictures. in effect, this testifies to a crisis in confidence, and in fact, the western consensus so prevalent for many years. people talk about post—capitalism. this is almost posted diplomacy this commentator is far more concerned about misspeaking, that kind of thing. rather than anything of any substance. no one dares say what

they really think? the ide can get any consensus, they really think? the ide can get any consensus, let alone policy done at these kind of meetings, frankly absurd. let's not forget, these leaders can link up at any time, nowadays in the great communication era. the idea of going to get anything done over a very violent, hot and socially awkward meeting is ridiculous. i agree what comes out of these meetings is often bland to the point of pointless. how many of us can the point of pointless. how many of us can remember the point of pointless. how many of us can remember a the point of pointless. how many of us can remember a communique issued from one of these summits. i don't necessarily think there is a complete break from the past. interesting you mention 15 years ago from protest against american might. then you had president george w bush talking about, for example, imposing tariffs on steel, exactly what is happening today. continuity with

what happened 15 years ago and today. i do agree, the isolation the us is undergoing because of our current leader is not anything i have witnessed in my lifetime. usually america was seen as ahead of the curve, at least trying to leave. this is america retreating, finding itself not just being this is america retreating, finding itself notjust being shunned by powers that we thought were unfriendly, but those we thought we re unfriendly, but those we thought were friendly. when you have won against 19 ina were friendly. when you have won against 19 in a communique against climate change, that says something. that was a process begun by president 0bama, the retreat after the disaster of iraq. i am not associating 0bama with trump given their approach to world affairs is entirely different. trump may be accelerating the process of america's retreat from the world. 0bama took a very different view from clinton. even longer than 15

years. the tail end of the clinton era. demonstrations, the early bush years. democrat and republican leaders saw america in terms of world leadership. which announced looks ridiculous. that is all driven by trump. would not been that different from george bush's view. 0ut different from george bush's view. out of kyoto. the difference with 0bama, he did not project the same kind of persona we have become accustomed to with us leaders. his idea of leading was three multilateral organisations. trump is pulling himself out of that, becoming isolationist. we cannot afford that. important to bear in mind, while the policy of withdrawing did begin under 0bama, there is a vast difference. to date we have the first detroit dilly matty gee 20 where the united states

is playing a peripheral role. significant change from the past. you have four big agenda items. either the united states is not a pa rt of either the united states is not a part of this, or they're being obstructed. climate change, for instance. internationaltrade. obstructed. climate change, for instance. international trade. north korea has been outsourced to china by president trump. there is an element of incense and is in the area of counterterrorism. there is more or less a consensus between the 620 countries. having said that, the problem is the wording of the documents. there has to be a strong enough wording which rarely happens that t20 or any of these summits. the bigger the group, the more difficult to get stronger wording this then comes the matter of follow—up. we are nine years after

the economic meltdown, still in austerity. that tells you how much the action which has followed the resolution is taking t20 summits, have done or not done. beyond the t20 summits, there is strong indication world leaders take bilateral meetings more seriously than general ones. theresa may met with donald trump, they did not hold hands on this occasion this we heard from donald trump, saying they will be big trade deals. the reality is theresa may could be gone before proper negotiations start. as to trump. this is an example of how the 620 meeting could not come across as more hot air rather than anything being achieved. all about good pledges this which can turn pretty hollow. are we all saying, the big

set piece meetings are worthless? just have the bilaterals? the nature of those meetings have changed. we have to accept that. for example, i am pretty sure a lot of people in france and europe would have been shocked at the way the french president and many well macron was paddling up with trump. —— getting friendly with trump. 0f paddling up with trump. —— getting friendly with trump. of course you have two be respectful, but that is different from being friendly. president macron will have to learn international politics is much more politics than treating him like a buddy. having meetings like this does serve a purpose. after the financial meltdown there was a t20 that focused on having to repair the

financial system and came away with good ideas. right now, with the us being isolated, historically having been the leader and no longer, there isa been the leader and no longer, there is a real deficit. a thought on theresa may, how she has performed. we mentioned the meeting with trump. she goes on to a curiouser difficult time in this country. what is your ta ke time in this country. what is your take on how she has performed? leeway to understand it is think of the leader propped up by the cabinet. they cannot necessarily agree on a replacement. it sounds cruel, she's a cutout. a cardboard cutout pro minister. this month the focus is on can she make it through to the summer, the conservative party conference in october? will she go by christmas? do the conservatives skip a generation. go

for someone conservatives skip a generation. go for someone younger. conservatives skip a generation. go for someone younger. might be some untried and untested. she is there isa untried and untested. she is there is a placeholder pro minister. where that really complicates brexit, very often, and this is where diplomacy does matter, the connection between leaders. leaders can bridge the divide. if the talks get bogged down on brexit, it would need a strong british pro minister to say to angela merkel and macron, there was a gap, a compromise to be done which can make brexit happen more smoothly than otherwise might be the case. that requires a prime minister with confidence and some clout and authority. which it is fair to say theresa may does not have. problematic for the british, in terms of how the negotiations go. looking at it from the other side. donald trump saying things like a trade deal will happen quickly does

not mean anything. does not even know what he's talking about. sorry to say this, these deals do not happen quickly. they take a very, very long time. completely misleading people by saying that.- is the eu, trumpeting a trade deal between the eu and japan which does not exist yet. taking four, five years. never thought about climate change? will it go angela merkel‘s way? the well's biggest polluter is not part of the paris deal. how does the world proceed with this deal? the rest of the world may continue to do what they have committed today. without the united states, a difficult one to achieve the targets set in paris. the only consolation i ta ke set in paris. the only consolation i take from this, in the us you have

states, for instance, my home state of california, committed to reducing carbon efficiency. and have much more environmental sense. the idea climate change is real and happening, and needs to be counted as much as possible. although it may not be happening on federal level, there are states trying to take action. that is so interesting. one of those issues, if big polluting industrial countries are not united, people will say, what is the point? no use being as green as you can be in california, despite its size and economic power, if everyone is not on board. we will see whether china and india live up to their commitments. 6ood they are pledging to. china has a history of environmental degradation, even though they have policies supposed to alleviate that. hopefully they will live up to those commitments. we will be discussing that all

again. well before he arrived at the 620, indian prime minister narendra modi went to israel — the first indian pm to visit in 70 years. but he left behind growing tensions and anxiety between his country, pakistan and china, especially in the border areas. ashis — what's your analysis? there is a dispute between china and india over the border. the two science disputing the dili new nation. there was a five—minute chat between the two leaders. the outcome is not known. neither side has confirmed whether the stand—off was discussed at all. a lot of attention of late. china refusing the meeting to start with, they said the atmosphere is not right for such a

meeting. eventually what happened, there was a meeting of bric country leaders. there was a polar side, the two had a chat for five minutes. china has been playing very tough in recent times. the china and pakistan axis really endangering india at the moment. of late, this is a bit unusual. in the last 25 years or so, since the peace and tranquillity treaty between india and china things have been going very well. on the trade front, they have been going extremely well, particularly for china. all of a sudden in the last three years, the chinese approach has become very tough. there is of course a reason for this. at the same time, there is a condition which needs to be sorted out between these two major asian countries. you are nodding. i'm glad

there was a five—minute talk. what concerns me more india and pakistan are not talking. that border i find much hotter than the indian in china border. given what has been going on kashmir, at the heart of the conflict, the fact both our nuclear armed states. pakistan doing a test fire fellaini killeen missable earlier this week. that seems much more concerning earlier this week. that seems much more concerning them pakistan and china. i think in general the tension between india and pakistan is always at a higher level than the tension between india and china. between india and china matters had cooled off considerably for a number of years. nearly a quarter of a century. between india and pakistan there is inevitably a face—off. the kashmir situation is very hot of the moment. as you rightly said, there

is no dialogue between the two countries at ministerial level. maybe the officials will get together at the civil service levels soon. together at the civil service levels soon. ambassadors exist in both countries. rather high commissioners in this case. fundamentally, it is a very tense situation between the two countries. what is at stake, it seems to be potentially the defining relationship of the first half of the 20th century. india versus china this a new book, on the retreat of western liberalism makes that point. two models tested alongside each other. both newly capitalist, one autocratic, one democratic. whoever wins the battle, as american power

declines, the west offers an identity crisis, will become the great power of the future. that is indeed true. china has certainly been off to a much faster pace in the last 30 years or so. where as democratic injury dili mecca india had challenges. at the mehmedi situation interesting, china and india have slowed down. part of this meltdown catching up, not quite allowing the two countries to take off as they would have liked to have done. there was a time india grew at 10% plus 6dp. remarkable for a country democratic way you have hurdles, court cases to deal with before you can start a project like motorway. in that situation india was doing quite well. inevitably, the pace is faster in china this

ultimately india may get there, but a very interesting two models competing with each other. a very interesting two models competing with each otherlj a very interesting two models competing with each other. i do think, it seems to me that china's encroachment on that small disputed territory at the intersection between china, india and bhutan, where the dispute is all about. all about the budding superpower china trying to expand its sphere of influence beyond east asia into south asia. this time around is not an armed conflict. all about a geostrategic cold war with india. not the first time they have had a stand—off. one going back to 1962, unarmed one. tensions over tibet and along the border. china had emerged victorious. this is the longer stand—off so far between the two countries. we have been talking

about america's retreat, going in on itself, in relation tojune 20. does america have a role to play, in relation to china? between china and india, iam relation to china? between china and india, i am not so sure. relation to china? between china and india, iam not so sure. what relation to china? between china and india, i am not so sure. what has been commented on a lot, ifind it ironic living in china, and being america, is china extending its sphere of influence into places that the us had occupied. whether it is on climate, the projection of power, through naval forces, for example, in the shipping lanes around asia, that has historically been the us protecting their shipping lanes. i find it worrisome that china is stepping into the breach. another sign of american retreating from what had been its historic duties, the role it played. while i am concerned about the decline of

america diplomatically. i would not write off the us. even though it has been through economic turmoil, it has still been by far the most innovative economy on earth. as a believe in democracy, there is something inherently necessary for innovation, competition to happen, you have to have a free society this theft is the problem, the unknowable thing with china, in an autocratic society, can you innovate? you can replicate, become very efficient and successful, but can you produce the answers successful, but can you produce the answers to climate change? the next wave of the internet. all the stuff that has come out of america in the la st 25 that has come out of america in the last 25 years has its roots in bill gates being rebellious, a battle of ideas. i'm not going to go off and during the state—run company, take other people orders. i will go off and innovate and invent, my ideas are better than the other guys. that

runs are better than the other guys. that runs right through american society. even though america is in a bad place, should not be written off. even though america is in a bad place, should not be written offlj would add, if i make the withdrawing from expensive wars will lead singer and economic bounce back for the united states. —— will lead to stop whether it happens under the trump model, we don't know. coming out of these very expensive situations in these very expensive situations in the middle east and afghanistan was helpful, and gradually leading to prosperity. that said, there was a strategic agreement between the united states and india which china saw as being against china. an agreement between present 0bama and prime minister modi, but that seems to have slipped away under president trump. also to do with an arms race.

president modi's visit to israel testifies to that. another example ofa testifies to that. another example of a populist global leader trying to humiliate millions of muslims around the world. not only in his own country but neighbouring pakistan. he wants it betrayed them as pakistan. he wants it betrayed them as the enemy within and threatening externally. instead of installation to lee mckenzie dh and can he sees the future in a constant armed struggle, his side being armed to the teeth, being ready to dispatch as the teeth, being ready to dispatch as many muslims as possible when trouble arises. i would call it the israeli model. he has broken decades of support for the palestinian cause. tallying up with on a ferry terry and hawks like benjamin netanyahu. he snubbed palestinian leaders, and also stocked up with weapons. i found it

quite outrageous a leader like him chooses to side with the state of israel, which regularly breaches international and humanitarian laws, whose leaders past and present stand accused of war crimes this who are consta ntly accused of war crimes this who are constantly expanding illegal colonial entity. i found constantly expanding illegal colonial entity. ifound it constantly expanding illegal colonial entity. i found it quite distasteful. some of the big question is, we will continue to debate. it is july. question is, we will continue to debate. it isjuly. everyjournalist in the uk and abroad is worn out after events of the last few weeks. the queen has gone on holiday; westminster can't wait for the summer recess. and everyone you talk to seems desperate to get away and forget the troubles of an exceptionally busy few months. how do you all intend to recharge your batteries? iain, every political corr i know is worn out! the south of france as quickly as possible in three or four days' time. i have never known a period where people are so much in need of a holiday. brexit, trump, britain on

a holiday. brexit, trump, britain on a cycle, scottish referendum. three orfour a cycle, scottish referendum. three or four years a cycle, scottish referendum. three orfour years of a cycle, scottish referendum. three or four years of intense activity. combined with the heat. the political and media establishment in london has gone off its said. needs to go away for a while. journalists have trouble switching off the revenue cycle is 20 grams a day. getting sucked into all of this. every time there. i remember a time i would go on holiday, come back, catching up with the world. watching the tv news bulletin, reading a newspaper. now tv screens are everywhere. you are encouraged to be connected to your devices at all times. do not do it, switch them off. to me, this is the most enjoyable time of the year. i go to laws to watch test cricket, go to wimbledon to watch the tennis. the british open golf coming up. looking forward to it. and in nearly the proms. with brexit looming, i should

go to countries i don't need a visa to visit, i have picked scotland. i will be visiting the highlands, which i've never done before. you will love that. enjoy, well—deserved. switch off the iphone. for anyone watching, well—deserved. switch off the iphone. foranyone watching, going on holiday, have a wonderful time. those who are not going holiday, we will see you over the course of the summer. will see you over the course of the summer. see you again soon, will see you over the course of the summer. see you again soon, goodbye. hello there. on balance, pretty decent day ahead of us. more cloud in southern areas compared to

yesterday. 30 again, the seventh day this summer retaining 30 celsius. we should see higher than the 16 we saw in glasgow yesterday. because the north will have more sunshine. a lot of moisture associated with that heat in the south. hence that fog. sunshine in parts in scotland. we have the weather front advancing. more cloud filling in. much of the north will have more sunshine. the south has more cloud waiting to come in at times. we are being eroded sunshine wise in the far north—west and south—west. a few drizzly showers. by and large, dry and bright. most of us will have a dry and bright sunny day. it will feel warm and muggy. not in the north. unpleasant weather to come in the hebrides, and the north—west highlands. elsewhere, lovely weather. plenty of strong sunshine. the same for the north of england and northern wales.

a bit more cloud over wales and south west and central areas. temperatures not quite as highs yesterday. 25, 26. cooler around the coast, with those drizzly showers or the cloud is at its lowest. the cloud will fill in overnight. another muggy night, uncomfortable sleeping in the south. that weather front starting to make progress. the fresh air getting right across the uk. it will not be a particularly cold night in the north. temperatures across sunday struggling because of the weather front. to the north the sunshine returns. to the south, that one week weather front giving us the spark for a few sharp showers into the afternoon. a bit cloudy first thing, the sunshine should breakthrough. could be a bit higher than today. 26, 27 in the south. if you are stuck under that band of rain, difference in northern ireland, central and southern scotland. sunshine returning to

the far north of scotland. all change into next week. fresher air right away across the uk. low pressure never far away. bye— bye. good afternoon. there'll be a trade deal and it'll be a very, very good one. donald trump's words to theresa may this morning as the us president met the prime minister at the 620 conference in hamburg. mr trump stressed the special relationship he's developed with mrs may and said the deal would be done quickly.