hello. leaders but are they leading? donald trump was treated like royalty in paris as the french celebrated their revolution. therese made worse publishing legislation to ta ke made worse publishing legislation to take britain out of the european union. she is a much diminished figure after losing her parliamentary majority. president trump is distracted after links between his campaign and the russians. it cannot be off and that they end the iraq's minister but he looked like a leader this week as he held the flag of iraq aloft celebrating the rout of islamic state. i'm joint by four leading

lights. warm welcome to all of you. it is good to have you back with us. tony blair was saying that we have had a lot of followership lately. what we need is some leadership. is he right? it is true we have a leader in this country at the moment, we have an incapacitated and powerless prime minister who has lost her majority and has to depend on eccentric northern irish mps. and at the same time, we have a country that is being driven by its people, driven by the results of the referendum. nobody dares say we're going to look at this again. the people haven't really changed their mind as much as we can see. some slight move but basically people want out, and yet more more we get into the detail

of what out means, the more shocking it looks for the future of this country. so we are in a state of paralysis, and until people change their mind, a government is forced to continue to do what it increasingly knows is a catastrophe. eunice goes, how does it look from the continent as they see britain's domestic problems and at the same time negotiations are continuing? there will be another round in the week ahead. i think a lot of people are quite baffled with the mess of the negotiations, with a lack of preparation from the british government and the officials are preparing the brexit negotiations. every week we hear this is about the reverberations of yet another thing that was not thought through. like leaving the euratom. every week we are learning about ramifications of big things that should have been thought through before the referendum, but we are now two years after. we are analysing. and at the same time i think

the european union is now sce nting the weakness inside theresa may's government. and if the european union has not changed its habits they are going to exploit that weakness as best as they can. they will try to have the best deal they can from a european point of view. all the charm and niceness thrown at britain, all the sense that there might be some flexibility, i would be careful with that, because they also sent weakness and the possibility that britain might in the end not leave the european union. and that weakness, polycom is the fault of british voters, because they took away theresa may's majority. there was this announcement that we would leave the agency come hell or high water and some backbenchers kicked up a fuss that they might have some sort of agreement and carry on in parallel. that is a demonstration of the problems theresa may faces. it is a terrible problem,

because the british people were lied to about how wonderful it would be to leave europe but also, underneath it all was real anger at a very bad economic situation where half the population have had no increase in their pay for ten years, housing costs have gone through the roof, and so it was a means of expressing another anger, which of course the expressed in the general election that came afterwards. some will interpret the general election as people saying, we don't want a hard brexit because it is making things even worse. and there is a kind of stasis, but the government written down the middle between people who think it is a disaster to leave, and the lunatics who created this idea, this fantasy in the first place that somehow leaving europe was going to be the answer

to all our problems. and nothing has been resolved between the two halves of the government, and that is why theresa may stays there, precariously balanced between the two sides will never agree. it's notjust the government. when it comes to weakness and brexit, look at the labour party. imagine if the labour party were led by a real pro—european and the labour party were strongly pro—european. imagine how different it would be and how much more weakness they would sense in europe. you can most here that lament in tony blair's voice, saying that labour put himself in the wrong position and end up getting some of the blame if brexit does not work. labour will end up there, but it is very precarious, because many labour seats voted for brexit. they are inching their way forward, including jeremy corbyn. his own instinct might be anti—european, but not that much. if he ever becomes prime minister, it will be on the back of the brexit question. they are trying not to move faster than the people are moving. it's very tricky. a weak europe is not

good for the world, no doubt, world stability. and with the changes in america as well. the new leadership in america would take advantage of this shaky situation in europe to serve its own interests. as far as the arab point of view, it is the same, they would rather have a unified and strong europe leading the region. and we have a european leader who is at least giving the impression of that. he sent his foreign minister off to the gulf, i am talking about president macron of france, taking a lot of diplomatic initiative. now in the gulf, trying to act as an honest broker. is he filling a vacuum of leadership? partly, certainly, there is no doubt about that. his first visit abroad was to mali in africa, which is very significant. this is a clear message to the world that we are going to play a part. and he is right doing that.

and he should certainly lead europe as well in this direction. there are huge problems in the middle east, in africa, in asia, that cannot be sorted out. the united states itself cannot sort this out even the united nations. europe has got the weight, the wealth, and certainly the leadership in this way. if you add emmanuel macron to angela merkel of germany. eunice, this question of the duality, we talked about the engine of europe being france and germany. tony blair suggested in his comments this weekend that europe also felt

diminished by the prospect of britain leaving, then europe would be weaker and less influential in the world. is that how people see it in brussels, in paris, in berlin? they do, but they will never admit to it, and they are also trying to make up for the loss of britain. europe is moving very fast at making up for britain leaving. we need to try to cover the ground that britain used to cover, and i think it is very significant that emmanuel macron was elected at this particularjuncture and has lost no time in trying to show that actually france is here, france is back, france is going to be a country that makes a power that makes a difference in the world. it was very significant that his first steps were in terms of strengthening links with germany and the engine of europe, and also in steps towards russia, the right of states, the united states, this is about showing that france matters. like britain, france is a country that has its delusions of grandeur

and wants to punch above its weight, and so far it is early days. macron is doing very well. he is giving a very different image of france, because in the past ten years under the presidency of hollande in particular france was extremely weak and irrelevant. in european politics, that was irrelevant, and emmanuel macron seems determined to change that. i much desired dependent on delivering on domestic reform? because in a sense nicolas sarkozy promised it, francois hollande promised it, and neither could pull it off. that is the question. because so far he is presenting all the reforms that europe has been demanding, in terms of labour market reforms, liberalisation, and so on. he has a parliamentary majority to approve legislation, but what is going to happen in the streets? the streets in france... the irony for britain leaving now is that at the time of this ridiculous campaign for brexit began, they said that europe is falling apart,

all europe is not the future, france is dilapidated. now suddenly we see a vision where for one thing the european union is growing faster than we are, we are at the back of the line for g7 growth. but france and germany look very united, very strong. europe seems to have new strength and energy and enthusiasm, and we have been left behind. we are the ones who are going to feel like the outsiders, unimportant. we will be the flyover zone for anybody else. nobody will come and talk to us, they will be going to germany and paris. i think what eunice says about the streets, it seems far away, but it is so important, and it is what links two people who are so unalike, which is emmanuel macron and donald trump. they were both elected by amazing disaffection and anger at the grassroots level. if they don't succeed, where is that anger going to go? this is something that

worries a lot of people, because this is notjust france and the us, it is other countries as well. this pent—up anger against the establishment, against anybody who is on top, is willie dangerous. but does that affect the kind of leaders we get? if there is this kind of reaction and they have been elected because of this surge of disaffection, is there a danger that compromises the issue and makes leaders reluctant to leave because they are terrified of getting a similar response, similar anger and similar objection? certainly, no doubt about that, but in france's case, certainly the establishment is crumbling, it has crumbled. it is gone. this is new blood. we don't know yet. but i think emmanuel macron has a better chance, lots of chances to lead france, and within europe as well. and if angela merkel,

who seems to be at the moment... she is up for election in september and all the surveys suggest she will be re—elected. yes, but in britain's case, i think we will wake up one day in maybe two years when brexit is totally signed off, and we will become poorer. and people will ask, "did we leave europe to become poorer?" which is, fundamentally... but might they also say, and you were hinting at the old ways european leaders do sometimes behave, might they also say, we are poorer but we are freer? freer to do what, exactly? our own thing. possibly, there is that illusion. i do think it is an illusion, because this idea of national sovereignty, this concept of sovereignty that is being

used does not make any sense in the real world. what does it mean to be free and be in control of your own destiny when questions like climate change, even diseases, terrorism, economic growth, migration, questions of technological advancement... they are so dependent on transnational links. what a slogan it was, "take back control". everybody, wherever they are, any stratum of society around the world, has a sense that everything is out of control. power is always somewhere else, it is not where i can control it. this is called a democracy, yet i personally cannot control anything. people in some senses have lost the notion that actually democracy is a collective thing, and there is much more me, me, me. i'm losing my power, and a big win to get back to a certain amount of basic political education as to what it means to govern collectively.

do you think there is any possibility that brexit won't have an? —— brexit won't happen? what tony blair was talking about, outer circles that we might stay within. .. it is almost too late for that. if we have a transition that goes on and on, almost indefinitely, where we stay as we are while we continue negotiating. after all, the bill was published this week, 1000 clauses to be debated of technical, important things that matter desperately to people's jobs in particular industries, i think it is a possibility. but we spent too much time talking to people like us. i get out there a lot and talk to places that voted brexit and i see no change. it will say, i don't want to know, i don't want to know the details,

don't tell me that, i just want out. i figured us in the same realm of likelihood is impeachment for donald trump. it is possible, but it really doesn't feel likely at this point. after his european tour, donald trump is back in washington this weekend. for him, the big legislative doubt is over the "beautiful" new healthcare bill with which he hopes to replace the affordable care act, the hated — to mr trump's base — signature reform of his predecessor ba rack 0bama. stryker, what does not fight over the health care bill tell us about donald trump's approach to leadership? he was always good to be a different kind of leader. he was elected, but he behaves like an oligarch. he is very removed from the levers and the

gears and the mechanisms of government. i don't think he could care less about that. with him, so with him, so much is personal. this is so much more about 0bama, the person, than about people might health care. between 18—20,000,000 people. but he is very removed from that. he just wants things to happen because he wants them to happen, therefore this should happen. he gets angry when they don't happen, and this is causing serious problems for the people who are actually writing the bill. i don't think he wrote the bill. shocking revelation! he is just not that kind of guy. what is going to happen when that many millions of people have lost their health care

in the next set of elections? this is what's really interesting. we saw it with climate change and now we see it with health care. local government in the united states, the city ‘s mother state governments, governors had a meeting recently, this week in boston, and governors are overwhelmingly opposed, because they are right there, they are down in the dirt with the health care bill and all of its repercussions. and so what is going to happen is there is huge opposition within the republican party at that level, but even in the senate. in the senate you have moderates who are against it because they don't want all these people to lose their health care, and then you have extremists who are against it because theyjust don't think there should be health insurance. it depends where you sit which group you regard as moderates in which you regard as extremists. they would say that ideologically they have a position.

the point is you could have a coalition of different interests. and i think the hardliners are more likely to wind down the moderates, the moderates are fewer in number. but even if something were to come out of the senate, they now extended the legislative terms so that that could possibly happen, even if that were to happen, that is by far the end of the story. the point you made earlier, mustapha karkouti, about leadership, that the establishment has crumbled in france, the problem donald trump has a few wants to lead is that the establishment in washington still seems very much alive. very much, certainly. that is his trouble there, he cannot make a lot of changes. he is against a huge wall. the establishment is still strong and sound. both parties. the idea is the establishment finds it also strange and difficult to deal with the businessman who is still running the white house as a businessman.

as we all know, the man has no political experience whatsoever. parachuted into the white house to run the biggest, the most important, the most influential country in the world. and the largest economy. one could must feel sympathy for him! i think he is extremely powerful in the sense that so far the checks of the american constitution on his power have not really worked. i think it is extremely worrying when we see the mixing of his private business interests, his family, the way they are all meddled in all areas of american public policy, in particular diplomacy. this is extremely worrying and is not supposed to happen in a democracy, and yet the two houses of the american congress are not saying a thing. there are no enquiries, there are no questions. there are enquiries, but there is a kind of normalcy.

but he hasn't done anything. his first 100 days have been most vacant and vacuous in which nothing has happened. the checks and balances are working to some extent. he thinks he canjust order what everyone's and the result... , whatever he wants. one thing we have enquiries about is the russia connection, if there is one, and there are a lot of enquiries into that. we have it catching his family because his son had this meeting, and one of the people at the meeting was apparently a former soviet spy. somebody involved in soviet intelligence. and yet it doesn't seem to be hurting his popularity. more than popularity, it seems to be able to carry on. his sons, who are running the business, are making statements about american diplomacy. i don't think this is normal.

his daughter, still in charge of the business, shows up at a 620 meetings — i don't think this is normal. it should not be allowed. he is the most unpopular president for this period of time in memory. but the frustration that you are depressing is that it doesn't seem to matter. ——you are expressing. his so—called base seems to be about a0 per cent, sometimes it did so little lower, but the problem is until the republican legislators believe that their own seats are threatened by trump, they are too afraid to move. so until the mid—term elections, that would be the earliest chance? or in the run—up to them. because people begin running early. so they have to make assumptions, they have to make plans based on how they think things are going. and if they are going really badly... you have a third of senators, and you have... every congressman.

mustapha karkouti, i started the programme talking about haider al—abadi waving the iraqi flag in mosul. in one sense you would think his task of leadership looks easy. he hasjust had a big victory, that would give him a boost. but is it as simple as that, straightforward ? is anything straightforward in iraqi politics? haider al—abadi no doubt... the issue is much more complicated than he is trying to portray. certainly daesh... the group that calls itself islamic state. it has been defeated in iraq no doubt, but this is necessary to do that. but is it sufficient? is it the only thing you need to do in iraq?

not to mention syria, of course. iraq itself has got on that front a step forward. but the biggest problem now starts in iraq which is how to rebuild, rehabilitate positively. not socially, economically, but politically. you have a new militia which took part in the liberation of mosel. now they have to have something to do. exactly, and they are demanding a part. this militia, known as a popular mobilisation force, it is inspired by the iranian revolutionary guard. and they are demanding political parts to play in deciding the future of iraq. do you think there is something quite important about the idea

of the caliphate having fallen with mosul — the romance the romance of it from all over the place, that there was a place and this was the perfect islamic state that would eventually grow and take over the world. do you think the force of that has gone in terms of recruitment? yes, certainly. i think the idea of caliphate itself has been used up either deliberately or totally unnecessarily. it had no future right from day one. don't forget, the vast majority of recruits are non—arabs. they come from abroad. they are mostly european, which is strange. you have no future with such force within an arab environment. but the further you are from it

the more romantic it may seem. iagree. in a sense, for a time it was a more effective leadership for rallying than for democratic leadership. it was, that is why the coalition that helped iraq defeats daesh, they have been very critical of the amnesty international, because for propaganda purposes it is important to show to anyone who may be attracted by the romance of the caliphate, that they can have a pretty dramatic, pretty horrific end at the hands of the iraqi army. hopefully in that sense the kind of sense, propaganda works. but i think we haven't seen the end of daesh in the region.

no. there are still quite a lot of work to do even in iraq. reasons to be hopeful. but i think in mosul we will find out that some pretty horrendous things happened there and it will make all of us feel very queasy. but yes, there is no doubt that on balance this feels like hope. thank you all very much for being with us. thank you forjoining us for the programme. we are back at the same time next week. goodbye. good afternoon. yesterday was a

pretty cloudy day with some outbreaks of rain. things are brightening up through the day. from the north we will get the best of the north we will get the best of the spells of sunshine through the afternoon. 0nly the spells of sunshine through the afternoon. only half the story. in the south of the uk we have thicker cloud around that is thanks to a weather front. little bits cloud around that is thanks to a weatherfront. little bits and pieces of rain along the line and drizzle in the south and west with the odd shower following on behind some good spells of sunshine in the north of england, much of scotland and northern ireland. lighter winds further south. the weather front is rather slow—moving. it will only be spots of rain. further showers across a windy scotland. 19 degrees in aberdeen and the degree also behind nat in glasgow. it should be i9 behind nat in glasgow. it should be 19 degrees in belfast as well. here

is our weather front with cloud and patchy rain. along the south coast some breaks in the cloud. humid as well with 2a, 20 5 degrees. at wimbledon a lot of cloud. that will be about it. it will feel warm and humid. the winds have been particularly strong. in the evening the weather front make slow progress, taking patchy rain with it. a little bit of rain for a time. in many places dry night with clearing skies and light winds. double figures, rules sports will slip into single figures first thing on monday. that will not last long. temperatures will rise quickly in thejuly temperatures will rise quickly in the july sunshine. a temperatures will rise quickly in thejuly sunshine. a lot of sunshine through tomorrow morning stop more cloud in the northern isles. breeze and some rain. the sunshine will be hazy at times. it will be a warm day as well. 23 in aberdeen, similar in belfast. we will have a warm, even

hot midday on tuesday. some are like glasgow and inverness seeing high temperatures. along the south coast, later on in the day, we will see some thunderstorms going ever northwards. we will get a heavy shower almost anywhere else. temperatures creeping back down by a good few degrees. we will see some thunderstorms are heat and humidity midweek and it will turn cooler and more unsettled. all the details as ever online. this is bbc news.

i'm reeta chakrabarti. the headlines at twelve. the chancellor, philip hammond, criticises cabinet colleagues for briefing against him as he defends his position on public sector pay. and says they receive a premium compared to private sector workers. public sector workers on average are paid about & more than private sector workers. relative to private sector workers. relative to private sector workers are they overpaid? they are paid about a 10% premium relative to private sector workers. acid attack offenders could face life sentences as a new review looks into classifying corrosive substances as dangerous weapons. a lot of victims have said that really their life has been ruined, so really their life has been ruined, so why are there not light sentences to make sure that the whole system really responds