tv Dateline London BBC News September 9, 2017 4:30pm-5:01pm BST
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going to come back and order, i'm going to come back and see if i can actually do some good. and nick, you're obviously talking to us, what's communication like on the islands themselves in terms of conversations between people on the various islands, what are the communications like at the moment? it's very difficult. there's limited service. one of the carriers has pa rt service. one of the carriers has part of the island. another carrier has the other part. so it's really tough to coordinate communication. obviously everyone is trying to talk at the same time. all of that releva nt u p at the same time. all of that relevant up to date information gets buried quickly on facebook, which is, i'd say, the primary source of most of our communication. 0k. well, nick, we appreciate your talking to us. nick, we appreciate your talking to us. we wish you well. good luck with everything in the next few days and weeks. it's time for dateline.
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hello and welcome to dateline london, i'mjane hill. this week, as hurricane irma courses through the caribbean and us, to what extent is this the impact of climate change? we'll chew over the latest moves in the brexit talks. and we look at the diplomatic efforts to ease the north korea crisis. my guests this week are the chinese author and broadcaster diane wei ling. john fisher burns, who was for a0 years foreign correspondent for the new york times. the british political commentator steve richards.
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and the uk editor of the french magazine marriane, agnes poirier. welcome to you all. thank you this sharing your day with us. so, irma, jose and katia, three devastating hurricanes have been tearing their way across the carribbean this week. at the time of our discussion there is a mass exodus from florida, where 25% of the state's population has been ordered to leave. so are these massive storms are a result of climate change? agnes, let's start with you. the paris accord is of course not supported by president trump. what is your take on these extraordinary and harrowing scenes in some places? can i say something that may sound trivial? but can we stop giving lovely names to these bad hurricanes? perhaps if they had demons‘ names. climate change deniers would take them more seriously, and everybody would take
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them more seriously. stalin? something more ancient, perhaps lucifer, donald trump would take notice! climate change, i mean there were hurricanes before global temperature started rising but the intensity, the frequency, the duration of those storms, they are here to stay. this is the new norm. what happened in texas or houston is our collective future that we're staring at. i think that it's... you're talking about the paris climate agreement, 195 signing countries, india, china and the us, the biggest polluters, they all came together. it has been ratified in almost all of those countries. and, of course, when donald trump a few months ago said, "i'm opting out", he's the only one to opt out from it.
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because the us cities and states are in it. it would take years for the us to actually get out of it and donald trump will be history, hopefully, by then. so there is the time of the signing and the time of the implementation. i think it is time for everyone of us. individually, we can have a massive impact on the reduction of carbon emissions. which is at the beginning, which is the root... individuals can do what they can, but there's a bigger picture and it's industry, aerospace, and nations have all got to be acting in concert to have any substantial difference. that's why we had an agreement and that's why for instance, public transport, the americans must start hopping on trains rather than on planes. it already happens in europe. butjust imagine, if a european
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who hops on a plane for one or two hours, started getting trains, it would have a massive impact, the same with cars. in europe they would say, oh, the chinese and the americans are the biggest polluters. well, it starts at home. mar—a—lago is in the mandatory evacuation zone, one wonders whether that might have an impact on donald trump? and his approach to climate change? do you think, john? i risk unpopularity in saying this, but i think that the instinct to go after trump whatever happens, whatever the issue may be, in this case, might be overblown. i don't think anyone is blaming him personally for the rising sea temperatures and the hurricanes that have resulted but in terms of his language around it. you could say that trump is not
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a total outlier in espousing some of the more sceptical views of the climate change issue and i would not have thought that these storms would settle that debate conclusively. there is a debate to be had. it does look more and more likely that there is a connection but it is as yet unproven, i would say, for a significant and a respectable body of scientific opinion in the us and elsewhere. but mainly i feel uncomfortable with the idea that we have got a new opportunity to kick trump. there are much bigger issues than this with trump. every meteorologist i have interviewed this week have made the point that temperatures are rising and crucially sea temperatures are rising which is why you get more rainfall than you have had before, and many of the countries and islands, it's the sheer intensity of rainfall in such a short space of time, that's what causes the devastation. some caribbean islands, completely wiped out.
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i'm no expert and i've probably read similar things, that you've interviewed people on, and experts have said that the reason that these storms are stronger than before is because the sea temperature is about half a point or 1.5 degrees higher than usual, therefore it allows the storm to become stronger. and to become these sort of category five, and form and go through the ocean. i think it's a very good point to start the debate and to look back to the paris agreement and to look at climate change. it's not conclusive, one hurricane does not change the fact that we have a weather system, but it is the time that we should look at it. experts have said, this is caused by climate change, and i'm no expert...
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we need to go back long before the paris climate change agreement and look at the hurricanes in the early years of the 20th century which were not as devastating, but yet pretty devastating, long before climate change or man—made climate change became an issue to try and understand this. you see i think the reason why it is of political significance is not an instinctjust to bash trump, but if you stand back and look at the challenges a new president or leader could face, this really challenges him in the same way that grenfell tower challenged theresa may in the immediate aftermath of the election because it raised so many questions. the fire that killed 80 people in london. it raised questions about housing, regulation, and issues that went deep into the philosophy of her governing party. for these hurricanes to erupt with a president who doesn't believe
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in climate change and doesn't really believe in active government, this is a massive challenge. because if you believe in this as leader, at least you have a navigating principle. that this is a challenge, a fundamental challenge, and the cause is something partly man—made that we have to address. when we had floods of the sort of apocalyptic scale. david cameron was then prime minister, he said "i believe the cause of this
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is climate change. " once you've done that, you begin to have a set of possible routes through. as a president, if you don't believe in that, you're operating wildly in a kind of vacuum, and also, if you don't believe in big, active government which has to mediate between these huge eruptions, you really are struggling to offer the kind of authority and leadership in response to this. and it's also about planning. the issue for trump is only about flood relief, help the victims, of course. but then what about the cause? and we must stop building in flood areas and flood zones, for instance. we must adapt and change our habits and we must plan for the future. a large part of the debate on the part of those who are sceptical about the paris agreement has not to do, so much, with the science as it has to do with an agreement which is seen as being fundamentally unbalanced which allows india and china, which are on their way to becoming the world's greatest polluters, to continue to pollute a much greater... a very large factor, than developed countries, on the basis of historical fairness.
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and i think there are a lot of people in the us who feel that that unfairness needs to be rectified if there is to be a sustainable treaty. let's turn our attentions to other big events in the uk. the british parliament debated the repeal bill this week. don't switch off! it really has been an interesting week! it transfers european law into uk law, prompting accusations from opposition parties of a power grab by government ministers. meanwhile it emerged that the european commission presidentjean—claude juncker had questioned the accountability of david davis, westminter‘s main man in the negotiations, and his political mandate to conduct talks. to conduct the talks. it has been all about brexit on the part of the westminster watchers. what is your assessment of how it's been going and what we have been hearing from both sides this week? virtually every day there is another twist which conveys first of all, the sheer complexity of what is being undertaken here.
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the sense that time is running out fast, to meet this two—year deadline, march 2019. there are so many oddities to this whole situation. labour's position in the uk is a more clever and sensible one in that it now is arguing for a longer transition period during which the uk remains in the single market and the customs union, but tries to negotiate a deal on freedom of movement. that's almost the exact opposite of the personal view of the labour leaderjeremy corbyn who is a passionate believer in the freedom of movement but sceptical about the single market. you then have the conservative position which could be divided into four or five different ways. we have had eurosceptics complaining this week about the pace of the government, but pro—europea ns expressing
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some concern about this so—called repeal bill. that's just in the uk before you bring in the european dimension. whatever else, and no one knows how this is going to end, it's going to suck up virtually all uk political energy. so all the other issues, climate change, the nhs, the health service, social care, is going to be — education — is going to be given a tiny amount of space on the political stage while all energy is focused on how the uk can navigate its way towards brexit, if it does. and this is for some years to come. years and years. we used to spend an awful lot of time talking about the health service and social care and it gets mentioned occasionally now. even if, it's still probable that britain leaves in 2019, there will be years of debate about the transitional period, how long it should last,
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what form it will take, what happens afterwards, is it still a cliff edge in more years, and on it will go. for a long, long time to come. it is living proof, if nothing else, that referendums solve nothing. and creates work for lawyers and other people. it's fascinating to see steve summarising what's happening in the uk, because in europe, we're just watching. watching and waiting for something to happen, a voice emerging, one voice, to emerging from the uk. when jean claude—juncker, from the european commission, talked about david davis being a very poor negotiator, well, he was talking about june. there have been some papers written over the summer. a lot of papers over the summer. so there was progress but each time, disappointment. in october we are supposed to move from the withdrawal issue, the divorce bill or settlement
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and the status of eu citizens in the uk, to the actual discussion about the trade relationship between britain and the eu. this is not going to happen in a few weeks. so probably it will be pushed to christmas to another summit. isn't this why the uk is saying, we'd like to have continual discussions? it's meant to be one week per month and someone has realised that we need a little bit more talking than that. yes, but you also have to prepare between meetings. it's bewildering because i'm not sure brexit is going to happen, but how long will it take for britain to come to its senses and for the british parliament to regain some power? but it looks as if... people will be wondering what you mean by regain senses. in ten seconds, can i say, the british parliament even though it is complaining that it doesn't have the power that is going
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straight to the executive, the british parliament is now centre—stage because this is a minority government. a minority government is not fully in control of this, because parliament could defeat it. it might not over this repeal bill, it's unlikely, but at some point, the british parliament could assert itself in a very dramatic way over this. but wouldn't that delay things... one of the reasons the government do not appear fully in control is because they are not, they can't be. that's why theresa may called the early election to get a big majority, she didn't, she lost her majority. so the uk parliament is centre—stage in this. in britain it became very fashionable to say it is all boring what happens in parliament, well it won't be for the next couple of years. there will be some big moments. i think it's an admirable thing in british commentary that we find fault first at home
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with our own negotiators, but i think it would be fair to take a look or two or three at the eu negotiating position, which in the case of mr barnier, seems to me to be a mixture of napoleonic auteur and fairground hucksterism. over for example the divorce bill, 50 billion or 100 billion, saying, you've got to agree what it should be, before we talk about the future relationship, is completely unrealistic because the british government, even if it were a labour government, would need to satisfy the british public that there was a fair deal in offing. to ask us to ask the british public to approve a massive divorce bill without considerable progress on the kind of relationship, economic and political, we're going to have with the eu after all this is done, and to have, to be honest with you, a french bureaucrat standing
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at a lectern in paris and brussels saying he wants to educate the british public and saying that we have sent him a duffer to conduct the talks, in david davis, to my mind, verges on insulting. sorry about that. i do think there's a point that britain is missing or it is not appreciating. it's the uk that voted to leave the european union, and it is to the european union's benefit to show that if a large country is going to leave, there will be consequences. that is their starting point. i don't think the uk appreciates that. what kind of club is this, that says, once you're in, you're in, and if you leave, we're going to punish you? in other words, they seem to be taking up very difficult and non—negotiable position on this to discourage anybody
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else from saying... but what kind of club is this, we will be in if we have all the benefits. as soon as we see some things we don't like, we decided we're not going to be in your club and we want all the benefits. i think it's a lot more... there is a lot more history in this than that. that is the european's point of view. i think from their perspective, the big difference is not quite punitive versus non—punitive or whatever, it is, for britain, this is a wily negotiation, game of poker, we will win some. i think they see it much more as a transaction. britain has voted to leave, we have agreed a sequence through which britain will leave. they know how tough it is, but they're going to stick to the sequence as they see it. i don't think they see it as being vindictive necessarily, but nor do i think they see it as a game of poker that the uk partly does.
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they see it as almost like a businesslike transaction that has to be accomplished so that the eu remains strong and intact. but i don't think they're bothered about killing the uk in the process. i think they're sitting on a volcano and a year from now, the positions of both sides might have to be re—examined because of the internal dynamics. there will not be time. i'm sure we will all be discussing this in a year's time! thank you very much. plenty more where that came from. we will leave that for now. north korea has conducted its sixth and largest missile test and it looks as though there are more to come. the un and international community continues to discuss tighter sanctions, but many point out that many years of sanctions have had no impact. russia said the north koreans will eat grass before they give up their nuclear ambitions, and china still supplies the lifeblood to kim jong—un.
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president trump talks about the role of china, what more could, should, is china able to do more in this? well, china could do more because china has 97% of north korea's trade. however, china is not willing to do some of the things that donald trump asked china to do. if you think about it, donald trump is trying to bully china and russia, and in some ways, south korea, into his own policy path. and china takes the view that sanctions will be ineffective. after all, china has had that kind of history, when china developed its own nuclear programme in the 1960s, china was isolated, mao was considered a madman and the chinese were willing to eat grass and have that nuclear programme.
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so china absolutely understands that sanctions would only harm ordinary people. and in some ways, because they are so indoctrinated by kim's views and the propaganda, they will sacrifice their own lives, so to speak, to have this nuclear programme. that takes precedence over everything by definition. but china absolutely does not want a nuclearised north korea, nor south korea, nuclearised. so china is in a difficult position, particularly now, china's influence over north korea had deteriorated when kimjong—un into power. his father was very close to china and kimjong—un has taken this position that he is going to be his own man. he wants to show the world how powerful he can be. he's not exactly willing to toe the line of china.
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so china is in a very difficult position. china has been calling for a twin—track position, which is some sanctions, but also going back to the negotiation table. is there any prospect of negotiations? i feel very uncomfortable with any analogy between mao tse—tung of the 1960s and kim jong—un. as somebody who has visited north korea, one of the significant differences is, north korea is a genuinely seriously evil place. i've been to some very nasty places in my career, but north korea was by a very long shot the nastiest of them. nastier possibly than we ever know. we do know that this is a man, kim jong—un, who assassinated his own uncle with an anti—aircraft gun, had his own half—brother murdered by poison in a kuala lumpur airport.
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to talk about negotiation and dialogue with this man could be a non—starter. i'm not sure you can negotiate with him. i think it's best to regard him as a madman. therefore what does one do about the nuclear arsenal issue? i think china has the best hope, that we can avoid conflict, because that would be devastating for everyone concerned, but that we can encourage and internal dynamic, notwithstanding how unlikely it is, for example with an oil sanction with china, which would mean that the military were limited, and there could be a conflict with the leader. the chinese appears to be in a morally ambiguous position, there is not much to choose between the west and north korea. not just donald trump,
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the west and north korea in this. i would say that defies all experience of the kind of state north korea is and of the dreadful, dreadful miseries and depression that has been visited on them. no one is denying that, but i don't think that china is taking a morally ambiguous role here. president xi has been on the phone with donald trump. yesterday he was on the phone with south korea. there has been a lot of dialogue happening with western leaders and china. the fact that there is an idea that you can slap on an embargo, a trade sanction, that it will create an internal rebellion, it's a myth. it has never worked in history and it didn't work in communist china. it didn't work in the soviet union? no, because... it did, i lived in soviet russia at the time and those economic
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sanctions definitely helped to bring the soviet union down. it did not work in cuba, and in russia's case, gorbachev came through and was a reformer. you don't have a reformer in north korea. china would advocate trade with north korea, to open up the borders and the negotiation, and what is the alternative? it hasn't worked. the west at one point was feeding the north korean population. we were shipping oil to them and it made no difference whatsoever. i would say that china should look to its own interests here because this man kim jong—un is so deranged. there's no assurance that he won't use his weapons against china or his other neighbours. we will have to leave that for another week, i apologise. we will debate that another time. thank you very much to all of you. please do join us again,
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thank you for watching. hello. the showers are going to fade away as we go on through this evening. it leaves us with is a largely dry night with clear spells and it will be chilly enough for central and eastern areas for a few fog patches and potentially a touch of frost. probably not in the big towns and cities. out in the countryside well down into single digits. all the while though, the cloud will be thickening up for northern ireland
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and western scotland with outbreaks of rain. as we go through tomorrow, we will see the cloud and rain spreading eastwards. hefty showers following on into northern ireland and other western areas. as the wind picks up there could be gales in the west later in the day. temperatures of 1a to 18 celsius. looking ahead to monday and tuesday, it remains pretty unsettled. yes, some spells of sunshine, but heavy showers, blustery winds and a cool feel. this is bbc news. i'm annita mcveigh. the headlines at 5pm. hurricane irma pounds cuba with winds of more than 150 mph. the cuban authorities did try to move large numbers of people out of harm's way, but still many have been left, particularly in the central province. we understand there are many thousands ever people there without power at the moment. as the storm approaches florida, nearly 6 million people have been told to leave their homes. as the storm approaches florida,
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