with strong winds and storm surges leaving at least three people dead. millions of homes are without power and parts of miami are underwater. almost 200,000 people have fled to emergency shelters. at least 25 people were killed by hurricane irma in the caribbean, five of them in the british virgin islands, where a relief effort is under way. homes and boats have been destroyed, and a state of emergency declared. damage to housing and infrastructure could total $10 billion. the first funerals have been held for those killed in a massive earthquake off southern mexico on thursday night. 90 people are now thought to have died in what was the country's strongest quake for a century. the fear of aftershocks is forcing many to camp in the streets. now on bbc news, time for hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk, i'm stephen sackur.

over the next 30 years, africa will experience a transformative population explosion. will it be for good or ill? well, that depends on whether africa's nations can deliverjobs, housing and infrastructure to enable 2 billion people to thrive. it is an unprecedented leadership challenge. my guest today is former nigerian president, 0lusegun 0basanjo, who hasjust published a blueprint for african prosperity. does governance in his own country inspire confidence or scepticism? former president, 0lusegun 0basanjo, welcome to hardtalk.

stephen, it's a pleasure to be with you here again. well, it's nice to have you here again. let me ask you a very simple question, is the potentially explosive population growth we're going to see in africa over the next generation or so, is that the continent's biggest challenge today? if you asked me what is my greatest worry about africa, i would say demography. the other problems, leadership, governance, corruption, lack of adequate infrastructure... they are either being improved upon, or they are a passing phase.

demography is a ticking bomb. ticking bomb. let's talk about the scale of it to give all of our audience, a sense of what it means. there are roughly billion people living in africa today, by 2050, that number... over 2 billion. so it will more than double? more than double. and in a country such as yours, the most populous country in africa, nigeria, 180 or so million today. we were 45 at independence in 1960. by the year 2050, we will be 450... a50 million? which will make you what, the third most populous and we will have increased by a factor of ten. since independence? since independence. and all african countries that i have checked on, from about 1960,

it is about the same thing, except the niger republic. it has grown by a factor of 20. and that is one of the poorest countries on earth, where millions of people are constantly fighting against the real prospect of hunger. how, given that is the situation today, is that country, niger, possibly going to be able to feed and house all of its people by 2050? it does not seem conceivable. it is a problem. as you can see. in the traditional african way of life, population used to be seen as an asset. but today, population that is not educated...

that is not provided with skill, that is not provided with empowerment, with the resources. . .. let's talk about possible strategies and the most obvious one that comes to my mind is to emulate what the chinese did, in the ‘50s and ‘60s, when they felt that there was a complete imbalance between the potential for population growth and the ability of the state to feed and support its population. they introduced a mandatory limit on family size, the one child policy. does africa have to consider similar limits on family size? there are two things that make that almost impossible. there's the culture, there's religion. and i don't know if any african

leader would try that. to me, the most important instrument in population management, population control, is education, particularly girl child education. let me make it as personal as possible, if you don't mind, how many children have you fathered? oh, i have done better than what my children are doing. give me a straight answer. how many children have you fathered? in my part of the world... this is exactly... can you give me the answer? i will give you the answer, but in my part of the world, normally we don't count children. i would like to count for me. if i go by that culture, i would say many. well, let me try and help you, i think the answer is 20 or more. yes. so let me be blunt. you are part of the problem and if you were a young man today, would you accept that you could not live the life with the tradition and custom that you lived

with in your 20s, 30s and 40s. do you accept that things have to fundamentally change? i tell my children, don't go my way. but i will also tell them and i will tell you that maybe i was lucky, because all my children were educated, all of them. well, you're lucky, because you were a member of the elite! but do you think you were selfish? no, i made a mistake, iwilladmit that and i tell my children, don't make the mistake that i made. one of the key elements of it is that so many of africa's people in 2050 are going to be young and they're going to be looking forjobs. tens and tens of millions of newjob entrants into the marketplace, every year in africa and the jobs simply are not there. jobs are not there, but even before you get to jobs, you have to educate them. you have to provide

healthcare services for them, you have to provide housing for them, you have to provide skills for them. now, all those you have to do before you even get them to the point where they will have to look for a job. how do you handle all of that? that is the problem. then of course, jobs. it seems to me it has put an unbearable strain on governments across your continent. you say this in the book that you've written, co—written, making africa work, which addresses the whole demographic problem. you say unlike other problems in africa which may be connected with tribe or religion, this youth explosion, it will not be a localised challenge, it will cut across all religions, tribes, ethnic areas, it will cut across geographic areas, it will be, you say, a mess.

a mess and a bomb. i say we are all sitting on a time bomb. what kind of credibility do you have, demanding of african governments that they take seriously the need for structural reform and political reform and clean governance, which is sort of the message you're giving, what sort of credibility do you have when you were a two—time president in nigeria and you signally failed on all of those tests? no, i did not, stephen. if anything i passed all of those tests! and listen to me, education... wait. education, i had, when i came in as military head of state, i started upe, six years of primary education and when i left, it was abandoned. when i came back, as elected president, i even did better. i started ube,

universal basic education. that was nine years of education, six in primary, and three in what we calljunior secondary. now some states went to the supreme court and the supreme court said, the federal government has no business in primary education. i have to obey that law. if i may say, you may choose your arenas to discuss your record very carefully, but i'm looking at something you said in may, 2005 after you had six years in power, you said this government is going to diversify the productive base of our economy, away from oil, we're going to foster a market orientated private sector, we're going to drive an economy with high levels of participation, the truth is none of that happened. when you left office, nigeria was as reliant on oil as it

had been before you started. what you have read is correct but what has been the result, you have not read. the result, when we came in and we gave you a few examples, cocoa production in nigeria was 150,000 metric tonnes. by the time i left, it was 400,000 metric tonnes. you know what? you can quibble about the figures, basically 90% of nigeria's foreign revenues and two thirds of its entire national revenues, came from the oil industry after you left office, just as they did pretty much before you came to office. structural reform is difficult in africa and you did not achieve it in nigeria. look at your record on energy production, look at your record on infrastructure, roads

built, railways delivered. you did not do what you're now insisting africa's many nation states have to do. now, stephen, have you finished? now let me now tell you that you are wrong. i started a railway programme. i even started the building. a 25—year programme to connect nigeria, and that plan is what they are following today. those who took over from me decided that they would not go on with it and, you see, if you build a bridge and somebody comes in and removes the bridge, it's not that you haven't built the bridge, someone else comes and removes the bridge and you talk about power? when i came into government in 1999, the prize of oil hovered around $8 and $9 per barrel.

by the time it got to $22 per barrel, we started going into power production, we started seven. you have a great capacity for putting a very rosy tint on your record, but it's not me accusing you... if i may, mr president, it is not me accusing you of failing in your tenure, and i'm onlyjudging it this way because you make so many claims to be a crusader for better governance, clean governance. because i did it. and you are not dealing... i'm dealing with the way nigeria perceives you today. hang on, hang on. when you say it is necessary for africa's governments to clean up their act today because corruption is corrosive

at a time when population is rising so fast, be mindful of what the national assembly said in november of last year, when you lectured them... what did they say? do you want me to read it? read what they say. we forget, they said, the person who introduced corruption to this national assembly is chief 0lusegun 0basanjo. he burst the fourth national assembly with corrupt practices from day one of his administration. stephen, what they say is they tried... they are talking rubbish. listen to me! when i took over, the first thing that the national assembly sent to me and they sent, who was my national security adviser? whenever i'm sending a bill to them, i shall send it with money and i said no. if i send a bill to them and they do not pass it, i will still run nigeria.

the national assembley says, "have you forgotten the sacks of money that were displayed on the floor of the house of representatives?" where did it come from? being used for bribes. where did it come from? well, you tell me! you were in charge! you brought it on the table! he says you, and i'm quoting him directly, "are the grandfather of corruption in nigeria." i never gave anybody a dime, never. why is it that so many nigerians do not believe you? now many nigerians believe me. i wrote the national, the efcc... the anti—corru ption watchdog. they investigated me thoroughly and came out with the report that completely absolved me of corruption. completely. "the grandfather of corruption. " the words of the national assembly. do you know why? they are fed up with you lecturing them. you claim they are corrupt today. i will continue to lecture them, including you, who do not know what the result is.

now i told you. the institution that i set up did not even set out its report when i was there. it did its report, waited until i left, then submitted it to my successor. then he sent it to me. we will notjust stay on the personal. you will defend your record. i am telling you many nigerians don't like your record. let's part with that for a second. no, you particularly don't like what is positive, what is positive. i am just quoting the words of influential nigerians. let us not get hung up on... we are not hanging up on that. i am getting it right. so you say, so you say. so, yes! if you agree we are not getting it right, let's get it right. i am going to ask you another question. ok, you ask me...

hang on, you say meeting this challenge of the demographic time bomb can only happen if governance is improved. now, do you believe democracy, genuine democracy, is the way forward... what is genuine democracy? stephen, what is genuine democracy? there are no two democracies in the world that are the same. for example, you personally, although this book says democracy, accountability, and transparency, are vitally important, you personally have raised many times president kagame of rwanda —— you personally have praised many times president kagame of rwanda and prime minister hailemariam in ethiopian. yes. you say they are shining examples of how africa can meet the future challenges. neither of them, it is fair to say, are seen by analysts as running genuine democracies. what is "genuine democracy?"

well, you tell me, is rwanda a genuine democracy in your view? rwanda is not undemocratic in my view. you think rwanda is not undemocratic. you think that opposition is given full freedom of expression, you think people have a right to a free press in rwanda? i don't know what opposition is given or not given. but to my own mind, rwanda is not undemocratic, and neither is ethiopia undemocratic. zimbabwe? you went to zimbabwe, monitored their election, and said there is no problem. i did not say there was no problem. 2017 , you said... i said from what i saw, the results reflected the will, the desire, and the feeling of the majority of the people of zimbabwe. well, robert mugabe is in his 90s. yes. the man you supported

for president of nigeria, mr buhari, is in his 70s. he's been very ill. in fact, for more than 100 days, he couldn't even be in nigeria, he had to be in london in hospital at one point. one can look at others i've interviewed over the years, like teodoro 0biang, in equatorial guinea, the longest—serving leader in africa, over 37 years. africa needs to match this population growth with a new generation of younger leaders, doesn't it? they're coming up. they're coming now. you have a younger leader in gabon. you have a younger leader in, umm... ..tanzania. you have one in zambia. they are coming. they are not going to come overnight. they are coming. you have a younger leader in burkina faso.

they are coming. you have a younger leader in tunisia. they're coming! you, throughout this interview, have consistently tried to be extraordinarily positive, despite opening up with the statement about the ticking time bomb of population growth. i am an optimist by nature. let me quote to you your own book. quote, "those who depend on the old order," and we've just talked about the leaders who represent the old order, the old crony elites, "those who depend on the old order can immediately see the writing is now on the wall. "and they, the old order, will fight viciously to defend the status quo." that's a quote from the book and doesn't sound optimistic. that is optimistic. "a vicious fight to

maintain the status quo?" stephen, the old order is disappearing. only recently, they have decided to bow out. what i am saying is those who are older, who have decided to stay, will be left behind. if you do not leave power, power will leave you. that is what i am saying. if anyone has decided to die in office, then leave him, he will die, and then won't carry the office away. but as this process unfolds, many african people are living in poverty. many have a dream to get out of their nation, even their continent, and make a better life in europe. surely, the only conclusion we can

reach from the research work that you and your team have done is that that effort to move, to migrate out of africa and to reach richer shores, primarily in europe, the numbers will increase exponentially, won't they? if we do not do anything right, if we continue as usual. what i am saying in that book is it cannot be business as usual. it must not be business as usual. we must think out of the box and we must act out of the box. so, isn't it time for you to end, for example, your support of president buhari in nigeria, where, if one looks at everything, from poverty figures, to joblessness figures, the failure to deliver performance in the power sector, the failure to deliver new road and rail projects, it is not working. yet you support the old status quo in your country. i don't know what you mean

by the status quo. buhari has been there for two and a half years. all i said about buhari has not changed. i said he is strong on the economy, that has not changed. i said he is strong on fighting corruption, and please give him that credit, because he has. i said he will try to fight the insurgency, he has tried to fight the insurgency. please give him that credit. now, if you see only pessimism, then i do not see only pessimism. you said africa faces a ticking bomb. one can only say that what happens to bombs is they tend to explode. stephen, stephen, africa faces a ticking bomb if africa does not

change its way of doing things. so, what this book is about... how long... we are out of time... tell me, in brief, how long has africa got? how long does a nation like nigeria have to reform and restructure and deliver better governance before it is too late? we have to start and we have started. we have to start, and we have started. when i came in, there was no efcc to fight corruption, no icpc to fight corruption. those institutions today are the institutions that nigeria is using to fight corruption. now, you don't see that. but we have started. we have started to reform. we have to end it there, but 0lusegun 0basa njo, thank you for being on hardtalk.

stephen, it was a pleasure to be here with you. hello. as irma continues north across the state of florida, we here in the british isles have experienced quite an unsettled weekend. and that theme continues on into the forthcoming week. for a time, we'll see cool and at times windy weather and some pretty heavy downpours to boot. the concerns start as early as monday morning, especially so across wales and the south—west, where some of the gusts of wind could easily be up at around 50, if not 60mph. at the same time, those conditions could be exacerbated by some

squally showers indeed. elsewhere across the british isles, how do we start the new week? ina similarvein. the wind not a concern as in wales and the south—west. but the wind will be ever present for many parts of western scotland and northern ireland and a good part of england and wales. and there will be plenty of showers to go around as well. at times, some of those showers will merge to give the odd longer spell of rain. perhaps nowhere more so than this north—eastern quarter of scotland. quite close to an area of low pressure there. showers, quite sharp, they will have hail and thunder. if you see too many, you are not going to be in the mid to upper teens, closer to 10—11. out of monday and into tuesday, a little ridge of high pressure working across the british isles, tending to settle things down. this is one of the quieter days of the week, at least to start with. it will feel pleasant with less wind. 16—19, something like that.

later in the day overnight into wednesday, we could see the emergence from the atlantic of a very vigorous area of low pressure gradually churning its way right across the heart of the british isles. there are already warnings from the met office about the intensity of that rain for the northern parts of england and wales and the strength of the wind. the system has the good grace to move on into the north sea, leaving behind, for the bulk of us, wednesday as another really showery day. and do you know what, we continue that theme on into thursday. the wind from the north—west still quite a noticeable feature of the day. in the midst of all of this there will be sunny spells but it really won't do much for the temperatures, never better than about 12 or 13 in the north, around 17 or 18 in the south. thursday and friday, a tantalising and teasing prospect of some high pressurejust beginning to work into the west, but it probably won't keep those fronts at bay for the northern

parts of britain. this is bbc news. i'm chris rogers. our top stories: florida reels from the onslaught of hurricane irma as strong winds and storm surges leave at least three people dead. long stretches of the coast are flooded, and many buildings and power lines badly damaged. president trump has declared a major disaster. 90 people are now thought to have died in mexico's strongest quake for a century. the fear of aftershocks is forcing many to camp in the streets. and i'm sally bundock. the economic fallout of irma. the insurance industry braces itself, and the president pledges whatever resources are needed — we assess what's at stake. and who should take the lead on addressing climate change — businesses or government? we bring you a special report from india.