it would be the first rate rise in a decade, aimed at curbing inflation. also tonight... we have a special report on the roll out of universal credit, amid warnings it could leave people in "dire circumstances. " as eu leaders gather for a summit in estonia, the head of the european commission says brexit talks need a miracle to keep them on track. campaigners take to the streets of catalonia, as the spanish region prepares for an independence referendum that madrid warns is illegitimate. and good morning, everyone. welcome to thmmg and, radio 1, for years offering up youthful pop music, turns 50.

good evening. after ten years of low interest rates, the governor of the bank of england has signalled they're likely to rise in the near future. that could mean as early as november. mark carney told the bbc that because of the state of the economy, which is experiencing rising inflation, consumers should expect rates to increase, though he added any hike would be "limited" and "gradual". millions have enjoyed cheaper mortgages and loans since rates began coming down after the financial crash in 2007, though savers have lost out.

here's our economics editor simonjack. it's been a great decade for borrowers, a miserable one for savers. interest rates are at their lowest level since the bank of england was founded over 300 years ago. but today, the governor of the bank sent his strongest signal yet that that may be about to change. what we have said is that if the economy continues on the track that it's been on — and all indications are that it is — in the relatively near term, we can expect that interest rates would increase somewhat. the last time rates went up was more than ten years ago, in 2007. many younger borrowers have never experienced one. so, if it happens, what impact will it have? well, the most obvious one will be on the 11 million homeowners who have variable rate or tracker mortgages. those borrowers have an average outstanding mortgage of £116,000. a 0.25% rise would mean an increase of £15 in monthly mortgage payments.

i'm actually not very happy about it, because of my mortgage. i'm not in a fixed mortgage at the moment. it would be great if they started to pay me more interest in my savings. but why, after a decade of downward moves, is now the right time to reverse direction? i think this is a time where the economy is pretty strong. especially unemployment is pretty low, so there is a good chance inflationary pressures are growing from that side. and also, inflation is above the bank's target, so it's a good time to raise rates from the extremely low level where they have been. consumer debt is also worrying the bank. it grew 10%, to over £200 billion over the last year — the highest level since the crisis. now, these superlow interest rates made it cheaper for us to borrow and spend, but all that spending can push up inflation, which is already a bit higher than the bank would like. so perhaps time for an adjustment. there are also folks in the bank

here who think it's not a bad idea to have a little bit of room between us and zero, to give them more options in the future. the bank has been marking 20 years of independence from government this week. but the governor said there are limits to its power on some of the biggest issues facing the uk. the biggest determinants of the uk's medium term prosperity will be the country's new relationship with the eu, and the series of reforms that that relationship catalyses. most of the necessary adjustments are real in nature, and therefore not in the gift of monetary policymakers. in english, that means politicians are in the economic driving seat now. only two of nine rate—setters voted for a rise last month, so it's not a done deal. but it's worth bracing ourselves for the first increase in a decade. simon jack, bbc news. teachers in england and wales, and other public sector workers, may see their pay rise next year by more than the government's1%

ceiling, which has been in place since 2010. the treasury has sent out formal letters to pay review bodies, granting them more flexibility, to recommend higher wage increases. but teachers‘ unions say the extra money shouldn't come from the existing education budget, but be new money found by the government. here's our education editor, branwen jeffreys. what to say good teacher make these days? a slick government advert selling the rewards of the classroom. but after years of a public sector pay cap, it's become more of a hard sell. today, confirmation in a letterfrom more of a hard sell. today, confirmation in a letter from the treasury of some movement. there will still be a need for pay discipline over the coming years. but the government recognises that in some parts of the public sector, particularly in areas of skills shortage, more flexibility may be required. teachers, along with the

police and nhs staff, have seen their pay frozen. buying less each yearin their pay frozen. buying less each year in real terms because of rising prices. we have a conjunction of political pressure and economic reality, which is forcing the government, i think, reality, which is forcing the government, ithink, to reality, which is forcing the government, i think, to think again about public sector pay policy, because you cannot keep reducing public pay relative to pay in the private sector and still expect to retain teachers and nurses and so on, that you need. pay for teachers has fallen behind. in 2016, the starting salary was £22,000 for teachers outside london. but it was £27,000 on average for the graduate professions. sojobs like £27,000 on average for the graduate professions. so jobs like quantity surveys or programmers are better paid. for the last four years, the training target for secondary teachers hasn't been met. nurses have also joined the chorus of pay

protests, pa rt of have also joined the chorus of pay protests, part of a sustained campaign across the public sector. the government committed to cutting the deficit. you're going to be there for ever otherwise.... the deficit. you're going to be there for ever otherwise. . .. but with unease from some tory mps about the cost of holding pay down. schools have to find teachers‘ pay from their own budgets. tonight, from their own budgets. tonight, from one of the largest unions, a warning. we haven't heard there is going to be a pay rise more than 1%. there is indications that maybe some teachers might get a pay rise and not others. i think teachers will not others. i think teachers will not be happy about that. but we have to think about this from the point of view of children. we know that problems with teacher recruitment and retention are now starting to impact on children's education. what this means for schools and other parts of the public sector will not be clear for parts of the public sector will not be clearfor a parts of the public sector will not be clear for a year. pay increases could be modest and narrowly targeted on skills shortages, and still not meet the concerns about falling living standards. branwen

jeffreys, bbc news. it was designed to transform the benefits system, making it simpler, and encourage people into work. but universal credit, which combines six benefits into one, has been strongly criticised by a former senior civil servant. dame louise casey, who used to head the government‘s troubled families unit, has told the bbc that the way it‘s being implemented "made her hair stand on end". she says claimants could be left in "dire" circumstances, waiting weeks for their benefits. 0ur social affairs correspondent michael buchanan reports now from great yarmouth — one of the pilot areas for the new scheme. there are still some tourists in great yarmouth, but as the summer season closes, the cracks in the town‘s charm become more obvious. parts of the seaside resort are among the most deprived areas in england, the perfect place, therefore, to test the biggest welfare change in decades. the localjob centre has been delivering universal credit for almost 18 months. kelly shipsey, an unemployed carer, applied for the benefit two weeks ago. herfirst payment is

due in a month‘s time. as i speak to you, how much money do you have? nothing. 4p. and i‘m using that to get a mealfrom the butchers. you put in a donation, a couple of pence, and they give you a meal at the local butchers on the high street. and once that‘s gone, that‘s you. unless my landlady will cook for me when she‘s in. universal credit is hard going for many, with applicants usually waiting six weeks for any money. any benefits they already get are stopped once a claim is launched. i‘ve been in debt with the rent forever, since it started. gail edwards racked up hundreds of pounds of debt, rent arrears and utility bills, during the six weeks she was waiting for money. i hate being in debt and i don‘t like debt. and it ruins your life, you know, because you don‘t know... it spirals out of control so fast when you‘re in debt. and having to go to food banks, they were a godsend and they were brilliant, but it was only six months ago that i was giving stuff

to the food banks myself. great yarmouth is one of the first places to feel the full effect of universal credit. the fear is that some of the problems that have emerged, indebtedness, rent arrears, increased use of food banks, will appear in other places as well, as the benefit is rolled out across the country. for some landlords here, time has run out for their tenants. the rise in rent arrears they‘ve seen since universal credit started is causing them to take drastic action. evictions have gone through the roof. i‘ve personally served more repossession notices in the last 18 months than i have in the last 25 years. when i have a vacancy, i will be asking the person who calls me, "how do you intend to pay the rent"? and unfortunately, if it is via universal credit, then the answer will be, "no"- at a small soup kitchen, great yarmouth‘s homeless gather for some free food.

although she has a place, kelly is here too. she also needs help. another grateful mouth is gary dunningham, a man who says he‘s homeless due to universal credit. as we head off towards his shelter, he says he‘s been turned down by 58 private landlords. as soon as i go to meet them and i say i‘m on universal credit it‘s a no, "we‘ve got no room. "we had room and now we ain‘t got no room". and if you tell them on the phone that you are on universal credit? they hang up, pretty much. ironically, gary‘s universal credit payment would cover any rent. this is where i live. since i got on universal credit, this is what happened. this is where we are now, the situation we are in. it‘s hard to get out of the situation because of universal credit. landlords won‘t accept us. so, for now, this is home. and michael is here. it was the flagship programme of the

government‘s benefit reform said ministers had high hopes for universal credit. absolutely, and they still do, they still believe it‘s the right reform at the right time. it‘s not just it‘s the right reform at the right time. it‘s notjust conservatives, it‘s across the political spectrum, broad support for the principle behind universal credit, which is to simplify the hideously computing to benefit system. ministers point out that most people applying for universal credit are paid on times. they have evidence that people on benefit going into work faster and staying in work longer. the fundamental question at the heart of universal credit is, could you go six weeks without any income? the evidence that suggested is, people with a job, and some people have tax credits, then they can because you have other sources. but if you are unemployed, you are likely to have no savings and that‘s where the issues become most apparent. the government points out people in

those situations can apply for advance payments so they can get a proportion of their income paid to them sooner, but a lot of people are not doing that, and in the end they have to pay it back. it is within that group of people that you are beginning to see these emerging problems and concerns about what might happen if the roll—out of universal credit is accelerated across the country. michael buchanan, thank you. the president of the european commission, jean—claude juncker, says miracles are needed if the brexit negotiations are to move onto the next stage any time soon. speaking at a summit of eu leaders in estonia, he said he didn‘t think there‘d been enough progress to allow talks on trade to begin before the end of october. but theresa may says she‘s pleased with what‘s been achieved so far. 0ur europe correspondent kevin connelly reports from the estonian capital, tallinn. at a military base in estonia, the prime minister on a mission. theresa may‘s signal, that britain will remain an important player in european defence and security far beyond brexit. the problem, well, getting beyond brexit isn‘t easy.

at the very least, there‘s a difference of emphasis about how the first rounds of talks are going. i‘m pleased that the negotiations have been making progress and i look forward to developing that deep and special partnership with the eu, because i think it‘s not only in the interests of the uk, it‘s in the interests of the eu as well. the eccentric staging invited the thought that the remaining eu 27 are singing from the same hymn sheet, as brexit looms. and neverfar away, a sense of the uk isolated, as the eu presses for more concessions. there will be no sufficient progress from now until october unless miracles will happen. in bilateral meetings like this one, theresa may is trying to broaden the brexit conversation, beyond those difficult divorce talks in brussels. it‘s not clear to what extent leaders like angela

merkel are engaging. the next time these leaders meet, brexit will be centre stage and they will be deciding if britain has given enough to persuade them to move the talks on from those difficult separation issues, like money, to a future trade deal, as theresa may would like. for now, the odds are against early progress. when they sit in judgment in three weeks‘ time, theresa may will not be in the room. kevin connolly, bbc news, tallinn. america is warning its citizens not to travel to cuba, and is withdrawing embassy staff from havana, after a series of mysterious "sonic" attacks on its diplomats. more than 20 have suffered health problems, including deafness. cuba denies any involvement. jon sopel is outside the white house. the relationship between the

countries had been improving. what‘s happened? let's be clear about what this is and is not. i don‘t think it is an attempt to wind back 0bama era reforms. i think rather it is that these members of staff have been injured, some suffering from tin at us, some injured, some suffering from tin at us, some unconsciousness, injured, some suffering from tin at us, some unconsciousness, hearing loss and dizziness, as well as members of the canadian embassy as well. in response to that, they have issued this warning today. i think it shows that they feel that cubans need to be doing more to protect their staff, although they have stopped short of accusing them directly, although donald trump said in the last hour, they did some bad things in cuba. maybe they are accusing the cubans. very mysterious. in the last half an hour, the president has lost another member of staff who has resigned. tom price, senior member of the administration, the health secretary, has gone. it seemed he had a preference for private planes,

rather than flying commercially. 0n more than 2a occasions, at a cost of over $1 million to the taxpayer, he chose to go privately rather than taking ordinary aircraft. donald trump got elected on draining the swamp. having your health secretary swa n swamp. having your health secretary swan around on privatejets, the optics of that were terrible. thank you. thousands of people in the spanish region of catalonia have again taken to the streets tonight, ahead of a self—declared independence referendum, and a constitutional battle with the central government. madrid says the vote, which is planned for this sunday, violates the constitution and will not go ahead. police have already seized ballot boxes and detained some independence leaders. but catalonia‘s separatist regional government insists thousands of polling stations will be open. 0ur correspondent tom burridge is in barcelona for us tonight. chanting tonight, a call to vote on a yes—no question, should their region break away from spain? it‘s true that a lot

of people are waiting this moment lots of years. to vote ? to vote, and i hope it will be yes. but beyond the fiesta, there is deep uncertainty. and in the palace at the heart of catalonia‘s devolved government, the leader disobeying spain‘s courts and government. a referendum on sunday, he says, will go ahead. translation: the overwhelming majority of people in catalonia want to vote, to decide. not like this. yes, but what other option did we have? we‘ve offered to negotiate. this vote is not a crime. but there is a catch. many in spain‘s richest region only want a referendum with madrid‘s consent. likejose gonzales. born in malaga, barcelona has been his home for 66 years. translation: our families

and friends are divided. we can barely talk about politics any more. in madrid today, a mock vote. they want catalonia to remain part of spain. and like their government, they don‘t recognise sunday‘s referendum. it is not a question of stopping people voting. well, that‘s what you want to do this weekend. no, no. let me be clear on this. in catalonia, they vote, they vote on local elections, european elections, according to the law. sure, but not... what they are trying to do is an illegal self—determination consultation. this evening, after—school activities, a bid by parents to occupy polling stations and prevent the police from shutting them down. barcelona, and its region, walking into the unknown.

rhythmic clinking listen to this nightly ritual. a protest of pots and pans. ringing out across the city. people who say they will vote. tom burridge, bbc news, barcelona. rya nair says it‘s now implementing measures ordered by the airline regulator, to ensure all passengers affected by flight cancellations are aware of their rights. the company has updated its website, and emailed customers affected by its decision to ground hundreds of flights in the coming weeks. ukip has a new leader. henry bolton, a former army officer and policeman, becomes the fourth person to hold the top job in a year. he beat the favourite, the anti—islam campaigner anne marie waters, into second place. 0ur political correspondent alex forsyth is in torquay,

where ukip‘s annual conference is taking place. this was ukip‘s third leadership contest in just over a year, and for many it felt like a make or break moment, about more than who is at the helm, but about what ukip stands for. one of the contenders, anne marie waters, had advocated a radical approach, and the bookies named her as a favourite. she campaigned against islam and sharia law, which won her support among those who thought she was breaking ground in terms of political debate. but some in the party said they would quit if she won because her sta nce would quit if she won because her stance was too extreme. in the end, henry bolton was the victor and he said brexit must remain the core issue. talking to members at the conference today, some of whom are still here, they say ukip‘s course is now set, brexit is the priority. but uniting the party after such a divisive campaign will be a

challenge. thank you. a climber from wales has died at the yosemite national park in california. andrew foster became trapped along with his wife, when rocks fell from the face of the rock formation known as el capitan. lucy foster is in a critical condition in hospital. 0ur correspondent james cook is there now. within the past few minutes we have seen another helicopter land in this valley, amid reports of another injured climber. this may be one of the most beautiful places on earth but it can also be perilous. it is a climber‘s worst nightmare, the thunder of a giant rock fall, the second in as many days. we were right under that. we were right under that, and i‘m really afraid that there were people there. this climber filmed the unfolding drama on his helmet camera. perched atop the monolith of el capitan, climbers looked on in awe. the dust lingered for hours. andrew foster was the victim of the first rock fall,

just 32 years old, originally from gloucestershire and living in cardiff. his wife, lucy, was injured and taken to hospital. the couple called themselves "passionate weekend warriors". the second rock fall rattled several climbers, including rachel evans, whose husband was hurt. paramedics sped to the scene, flying one person to hospital for treatment. i said, "the mountain‘s exploding". and i said, "it‘s falling, it‘s falling". we were driving as fast as we could. at the same time, my husband reached up and he was like, "my head, my head", because it was bleeding profusely and hurting. and yet, the daring are up again today, including one climber who was just 300 metres from the first deadly rock fall. it definitely worries me that we were standing underneath the rock fall zone 15 or 20 minutes before it happened, but that was just like a stroke of amazing luck that we had, to be out of there, you know, atjust the right time. el capitan draws people, lures them

in, because it is untamed, because of the risks. this tragedy will not stop climbers from gambling in the wilderness. james cook, bbc news, yosemite, in california. 50 years ago, the bbc launched radio 1, with tony blackburn as the first dj on air. others who followed him have become household names, including kenny everett, john peel, and chris moyles. this weekend, a series of special programmes will celebrate radio 1‘s half century on air. david sillito reports. jingle: one. bbc. radioi. we are celebrating 50 years. radio1. bright, young, and 50 years old! 50 yea rs. they give you an opportunity to reflect, they give you an opportunity to celebrate but they also give you an opportunity to more importantly look to the future. because that future

is a bit of a worry. in an age of smartphones and streaming, can old—style radio stations remain essential listening, given that the radio is for many a bit of a mystery? can i give you this? it‘s a radio. yeah. you‘ve got it upside down at the moment. could you find radio 1 on there? i‘ll try. what do i do here? you‘ve never used a radio, have you? no. is this the one where you find signals? you‘ve never held a radio, have you? no. this? no, it‘s this thing here. 0h. you‘re making me feel very old today. jingle: voice of radio 1! and good morning, everyone. welcome to the exciting new sound of radio 1. but not quite as old as this well—known face, who will tomorrow recreate this, the first ever radio 1 show. i listen to some of the things i was doing on the breakfast show and i cringe. with some of the things i was doing on there, i think the knocking knees club or something like that.

some of the stuff, i think, oh, it's awful. i've got lovely kneecaps, just listen to this. but for that era, it was ok. you know, it was all right. it‘s also a reminder of a time when 21 million were tuning in each week. the djs were as big as the artists, they really were. we'd go anywhere and we'd be absolutely mobbed, which was very nice. i enjoyed it. fix radio, we are made for the trade, and this is the full fix breakfast. however, it‘s not all doom. around 90% of us still listen to the radio each week. new stations continue to open. this one just for builders. and i did find one radio savvy teenager. you‘ve done it. in one. i‘m a legend! do you ever listen to the radio? no. david sillito, bbc news. that‘s it. now on bbc one, it‘s time for the news where you are. have a very good night.

welcome to bbc london news with me, victoria hollins. patient care is being damaged because of a shortage of nurses — that‘s according to the royal college of nursing. the nurses‘ union says in some cases patients are even left to die alone on wards. the rcn have surveyed all their members. in london, 3000 nurses responded, with more than half saying hello and welcome to sportsday. i‘m hugh ferris. the headlines tonight: england end their summer with a six and another success. they thrash west indies in the final one dayer to win the series 4—0. england‘s cricketers have ended their longest summer by making short work of the west indies in theirfinal one day international.

an unbeaten century from jonny bairstow helped them to a comprehensive nine wicket victory in southampton and a 4—0 series win. west indies batted first and scored 288 for six in their 50 overs with liam plunkett taking two wickets. but it was quickly clear that wasn‘t enough runs as an opening stand of 156. including 96 from jason roy. and jonny bairstow‘s second tonne of the series — he eventually finished on 1a! not out and helped england reach their target with 12 overs to spare joe root rounding off the series and summer with a six. this group of players have been together for a period of this group of players have been togetherfor a period of time. it ta kes a togetherfor a period of time. it takes a period of time is the people to bed into an environment, a team and learn the role and take a step up and learn the role and take a step up from county cricket to international cricket. it takes a period of time and it is a period of time that we need to learn quickly. we have a huge series on the horizon and it will be tough but we are ready for the challenges that our heads. so the win comprehensive and achieved in the context of a week in the spotlight

for two of their players, ben stokes and alex hales who are not being considered for selection by england until further notice after an incident outside a nightclub earlier in the week. joe wilson has more from southampton. joe root ended the longest summer of cricket on home soil to win this match. the run chase against west indies didn‘t seem in any doubt. at the close of play, eoin morgan was able to point to the professionalism in light of what has gone on this week with a negative publicity and the stories that have dominated. england were able to put on a solid cricketing display. johnny bairstow was cricket —— crucial in that. he wasn‘t guaranteed a place. jason roy making the most of alex hales‘

absence. police in bristol were renewing their appeal for two witnesses to come forward over the criminal investigation that goes on in two events of 2:30am or thereabouts monday evening in bristol. everybody who was at the ground tonight including england‘s players are beginning to think about how england will take on the ashes this winter without ben stokes. there was more super league semi final drama tonight. following the golden point drop goal that sent castleford through to the grand final. leeds held off hull fc beating them 18—16 at headingley to reach old trafford for a west yorkshire derby next weekend. tim hague reports. 80 minutes from the grand final. will it be the final four