hello, good morning, welcome to dateline london. i'm shaun ley. "let the people decide". in kurdistan they have, and this weekend catalans wanted to do the same by holding a referendum on independence. in the uk, a referendum gave us brexit. jeremy corbyn, leader of the opposition labour party, has announced he'd give similar, decisive votes to people he says politicians ignore. in germany, the voters rewarded angela merkel with another term as chancellor, but also gave the far right their first seats in the bundestag in more than 50 years — though the taboo against holding a referendum there remains as strong as ever. to discuss all of that, i'm joined by henry chu, international editor at variety, polly toynbee from the guardian in the uk, maria margaronis, who writes for the nation, stefanie bolzen from germany's die welt. welcome to all of you, good to have you with us. let's begin with the referendum question. what do you make of the way

the governments in iraq and spain have been responded to the referendums proposed and held? it makes you actually be more in favour of referendums then i would normally be inclined to be because i tend to think referendums put very complex questions in very simple terms, which is something we saw with the brexit referendum very vividly, when everybody was actually voting on a different topic and for different reasons on a very apparently simple question. but when you see spanish government resorting to the most repressive tactics to prevent the catalan referendum happening, you think, well, there is a reason to do this after all and if i were catalans and inclined to vote no, i might begin to think about voting yes because of it. germany, of course, has, as i was suggesting, a different attitude to referendums, does that question of let the people decide never resonate in germany? no, of course it does but it does more on a local or regional level

so because it's a federal system, we have something like a popular vote on things like opening or closing down a station. there have been quite vivid referendums, people's votes in the past, like in stuttgart, it was big political thing about a new station being built or not. but in general there is a trust in the parliament, which is out of german history. because hitler used referendums or plebiscites, perceived as a way of kind of stirring up the nazis and then exploiting the politics of it. —— stirring up the masses. yes, so the trust is there that this is a functioning democratic system that actually the parliament is in charge of taking these very complex decisions and as we have seen with brexit, for example, such a complex historic question putting down to 50—50, to a nation, that actually... i mean, it's anecdotal, but if it's true that the day after the referendum, the most googled word was european union,

it might be doubtful whether it is a good idea to hold a referendum! polly, in britain we've had the brexit one. we've had lots of other referendums. but this idea of parliament saying some decisions are so fundamental that they have to be left to people to make them because otherwise we cannot be sure that they will have the authority and the trust in the politicians making the decision for them, that tension between a representative democracy and that kind of democracy of the people is quite a difficult one to resolve. traditionally, we've always thought of referendums as being the instrument of demagogues and they've turned out to be. the brexit referendum is the best example you can have of why referendums are monstrous. i think a referendum for the... that's only because you lost? no, i don't think so. people might have changed their mind the next day anyway. it comes like a guillotine. something that happens at one time, that nobody can rescind, there is nothing to be done about it.

in representative democracy, you choose the people who are going to do the best they can within a certain ambit of political ideology. and there is flexibility and you can vote them out again. time will come round, if they get it wrong, you can get rid of them. i do think, though, that a referendum for self—determination is a different thing. a referendum for the scots or for the kurds or for the catalans, i think that is the only way, maybe at some point for the northern irish, who knows? i think that the idea of trying to stop people expressing who they think they are as a nation, and that's a simple question, i think that's quite a different sort of referendum to the ones, say, the mad ones you have in california. coming from california where on the november ballot last year there were 17 ballot initiatives that the public were allowed to put on the ballot and to vote on very complex questions that

then nobody was able to wade through and understand, for example, one ballot initiative cancelled out another one and so it became not an exercise in direct democracy that everyone thinks it should be but rather an exercise in confusion. i agree that often these referendums make very complex questions into reductive yes/no answers, which don't really fit. i'm not sure. i mean, a referendum is the only peaceful way to choose self—determination, to choose nationhood. but i'm not sure that that's always a simple question either because, i mean, from what i know of the kurdish referendum, i mean, the kurds are, like the palestinians, historically stateless people, who are a nation. there is no question that there is a kurdish nation, linguistic, culturally. but it is divided among other countries. it is politcally very difficult right now and turkey has said, if you vote yes, we will block your oil pipeline because turkey is in a state of civil war with its own kurds and has been for years. there are internal politics too

and demagoguery going on there because i know that's barzani's not popular with younger voters in iraqi kurdistan and this is a way to boost his own popularity. the president of kurdistan? he is behind this. that result was clear, 93% in favour. of course the kurds are going to vote yes for independence. how can they implement it? that's the problem. they can't at the moment. referendums do not take place in a vacuum, either internally, in a domestic environment or in a geopolitical one and so a referendum to actually suceed when it comes to nationhood with south sudan, for example, that was something where there was un backing, a framework internationally for something like that to happen and in these cases, you do not have that. i've heard this argument before, if referendums polarise people into this camp or this camp and never the twain shall meet, is there an argument if you have referendums, they have more than one question, that you would dissipate some of this if you had

multi—question referendums? it doesn't make it much easier. you would still have a lot of complexity in it. you're still going to have people very often, by the time you get to the day of voting, they're actually voting on different sorts of issues. for instance, we had the referendum on the alternative vote system. you would think it was a no—brainer, you said to your electorate, would you like a little more choice in your voting system? and the people who were against it, mostly the conservatives who were going to possibly be the losers out of a constitutional change, managed to persuade people that they didn't want more choice. that they wouldn't rather put a one, two, three, order on the ballot paper. because they were told, it was going to, politics was going to cost a lot more money, billions of pounds would be wasted on elections. it was all absolute nonsense. also, people wanted to get their own back on the liberal democrats,

who they thought, it was a fix of theirs. it became about a whole lot of different things. afterwards, you stood back and thought, this is extraordinary, people are offered more choice and they say, no, thank you. and you know something has gone badly wrong! one place where choice looked a little simpler although the outcome of that choice may go on now for months is in germany, where angela merkel was re—elected as chancellor. she's now been in office for 12 years and will be for another four. it has left her with few options for forming a government. the social democrats, who came second, say they won't continue in coalition with mrs merkel‘s cdu. she couldn't stomach working with the next largest party, alliance for germany, the far right which won 12% of the vote. as for the free democrats and the green party, who together could secure her a parliamentary majority, there's little on which they agree. the chancellor has already dumped her finance minister, apparently to please them. french president emmanuel macron's ambitions to re—shape the eurozone depend on german support, and such a coalition might not give it.

stephanie, it should have been a celebration for angela merkel. was it as good an election result as she might‘ve hoped for and how much will this change? of course it was not the result she had hoped for, she said that strategically we have achieved our goal because i am back in office but, as you say, it is going to be a very bumpy time now because there is only one option and this is the so—called jamaica coalition between the cdu, black, the fdp, the liberals, yellow, and the greens. but it is going to take quite some time to form this coalition. the latest poll is saying around 60% of germans want this coalition. so there is quite a lot of pressure on the chancellor and everybody else, especially the csu, which is the bavarian branch of the cdu. they lost a lot of votes last sunday and they do not want to compromise now because they have another election coming up next year. they feel there has been

too much compromising. and especially the greens, who are pro—refugee, who are pro—eu and in the sense of what the bavarians don't like. more money to southern states, so it's going to be very difficult but there's another thing that will put pressure on them, which is the afd, the right wing party. so, i think there is a sense in germany that we need to form a coalition, a solid one, soon, because the majority have in mind 88% of the people did not vote for afd, they see this as a threat. maria, in terms of how it is perceived in the rest of europe, as mentioned, emmanuel macron has this very ambitious plan for reshaping certainly the eurozone part of the eu, britain will have left the eu anyway, that might make things a bit simpler in 18 months or so, is that made less likely by what is happening in germany? i don't know. who knows what is going

to happen in the eu? my worry at the moment, the right of the afd is of a piece with what's been happening all over europe, we've been seeing these far right parties gaining support and we have been seeing this revolt against the consensus that had become this kind of big lump in the centre left and centre right, which is neoliberal economics, globalised economy, etc. my worry is that europe is going to perhaps restructure itself internally but close its borders more firmly outside. the first thing macron talked about in his speech was defence, security, borders. and, of course, angela merkel was damaged in part by her approach to the immigration quota, in terms domestic politics. to me, that policy was the bright spot in a shockingly bad response by europe to the syrian refugee crisis. but she paid a price for it. these are difficult things to work out but i do not want to see a fortress europe bordered with military defence against the rest of the world

but nevertheless more comfortable inside. is that more likely, stephanie? an approach that angela merkel will have to adopt in order to ride the two horses of her coalition? yes, and of course that is what she has been doing. in 2015, there were 12,000 people daily coming into only bavaria. now this has stopped, why has it been stopped? because in the balkans, the borders have been going up and also because external borders are more secure and also because it is a deal with turkey and macron has been travelling to north african country to find a way to stop it. and i think there should be no delusion about it. it could've been worse with the afd, if not, other countries might have helped angela merkel by stopping the flow of migrants. do you see, polly toynbee, as a result of this, and given that in a sense europe might be getting less fractious if britain leaves because it has always been

a sort of reluctant eu member, appeared to be a reluctant eu member, do you see the task could be easier or harder for angela merkel? well, she remains the key figure. she and macron together, one shouldn't forget that it's a great relief that both of them are there as the stabilising factor in europe. all of these fringe nationalistic extreme right parties have been essentially defeated. they didn't win in france, in holland, in germany. not this time, though. at one point in britain, ukip won 15% of the vote, just because we have a different electoral system, they didn't get a single mp. but they're still very much on the margins and i don't think we should be overly obsessed, the great majority of europeans remain decent anti—racist, anti—extremist and i don't see

an imminent move to change the essential values of europe, which sadly, britain is leaving. but we should be a part of that. a quick point, i agree with you but i think, looking only at germany, also what we call the liberal centre, has moved more to the right, also in the german election, that is why i don't think the policy of open borders from germany can continue. i can't talk for other countries but this is a no—go because the long price that might be paid for this is too big. but do you think that if it changes, it will actually mean that britain need never have left europe because they themselves, i mean, if it was anti—immigration that caused our referendum result, do you think the rules will change so much within europe that actually we will say, why on earth did we ever leave? i think it is going to be far too

short to change until march, 2019, when this country is out anyway. and open borders is about people coming outside of europe and there is not as much objection with inter—eu migration the way there was here in this country. i'm not sure that that would've solved things either. a lot of that was very confused, a lot of it was fear that all of those outside europe people arriving in germany would eventually come through the borders and come to us. it was a much more anti—muslim, to put it crudely, feeling, than it was really anti—polish or east europeans. i think, i agree with stephanie that the danger is not so much that these far right parties will take power but their rhetoric and thinking seeps into what used to be the centre—right parties and moves the whole spectrum to the right and i think that is happening.

in europe, we also have two very right wing governments, hungary, poland, czech republic, so, the issue is really how to manage this, so that it does not infect the whole system. but i also don't think it is only about immigration. i really don't think the far—right right vote is only about immigration and racism. in terms of germany and angela merkel‘s position, henry, she had been regarded as the most powerful force in europe in politics, if she is weakened, what are the implecations of that, notjust within europe, but internationally, given that germany seems to be taking a more of an internationalist role in recent years. i remember once she was described to me as the queen of europe but now that crown is quite tarnished. before, in terms of keeping the grand coalition together or keeping domestically everything on side, it was much easier for her until i think the refugee crisis sparked a fragmentation,

this unfortunate seeping in of the far right, and that means she's going to have to take care of her backyard and try to implement with macron a wider european vision, which is pretty much on the rocks at the moment. even macron at home will not necessarily want to put some of vision through. so, i think she is quite weakened and that means something for europe, more than just germany. but i do think this sense of a loss of identity and a loss of their culture is notjust about immigration and foreigners coming in, it is also about the decline of the old communities, the industrialisation, it is about what has happened all over europe for economic and political reasons and notjust because of foreigners coming in. germany had been thought to be a country that had kind of got the balance right. that it had had a sense of confidence about its social system, that people felt there was a german identity and leaving aside the nationalism question, they were comfortable with the way germany functioned, has that changed?

in general, that is true but as we see with the result of afd, this is very much a western german phenomenon. they do not see this in the east. cultural and economic reasons, but in germany it's the historic reasons as well, the fall of communism. people in the east who are like the left behinds of the north of england are the equivalent of east germans. people who could not manage the transition to the capitalist system. this is where you have to pick up these people and bring them in but this is the big challenge and this is also why there is a sense of urgency in germany to fight the answer to find the answer, because it has an effect on germany and europe because if angela merkel can't quickly, she will not be able to do much about europe and there is a lot of, as you said, macron is desperate, he has only five years, the clock is ticking for him. they need to find common ground. and she could be spending months forming a government? theoretically she could,

but there is a sense that this needs to be done by christmas. where have we heard that before? and then brexit is low on the agenda, of course. we think it's the most important thing in the german elections! not mentioned! germans generally like to hug the centre ground in politics. which makes the rise of the afd all the more dramatic. tony blair persuaded britain's labour party that it was only possible to win power by occupying the centre ground. back then, jeremy corbyn was a sceptic, a fringe figure on the left, convinced a majority could still be won by persuading voters to shift his way. 20 years on, and tony blair is the embarrassing relic of labour past and corbyn the party leader. in this year's general election, mr corbyn did much better than many had predicted, and on wednesday he told his party's annual conference that the next election could see his dream delivered. polly, jeremy corbyn says the centre ground shifts, and it's shifted his way.

hasit? i am not sure the concept of the centre is very useful because in the end you have a binary system, a tory party in total disarray led by somebody that none of their own party like very much, and so, it's a question of which is least worst and i think that is what the last election was about. but there is no doubt that he has won 40% of the vote with a manifesto that was extremely popular. the moment it was published, the public opinion polls changed, he had been 11 points behind and suddenly he was really up there as a contender. people are very much in favour of bringing back our appalling rail system, the disaster of the privatisation of utilities is now being exposed as what a mistake thatcher made on that, everything there really has been a change of attitude. whether people would call themselves very left wing, i don't know.

but it was pragmatic, retail politics, promising students they would get free tuition and promising old people they would get bigger pensions than they have ever had. it was an old—fashioned bribery election, in a way! and right and left are relative terms. there will always be a shift in the centre. this tory government, under cameron, was one of the most radical in terms of the cuts that it was implementing, we had not seen austerity cuts like that in a generation, so that pulled the country a direction, but we do not talk about that much, talk about jeremy corbyn pulling at the other way, towards what might actually have been the centre at the time, so, i actually think

that things have shifted and the rhetoric has shifted in this country. stephany, when you look at this as an outsider, trying to explain this to readers in germany, do you see something similar in terms of a kind of centre ground moving? you were talking about it moving to the right in germany, is it moving to the left in britain? is that your perception? if you look at the polls, obviously it is moving to the left. but i also was at the party conference in brighton and especially at these fringe meetings, people were talking about the revolution, about a clear break, that you cannot reform this country, you have to have a clear break towards socialism. and i can understand why people find the ideas of labour far more better, they are fair, there are so much social injustice, especially for the young generation, it is appalling to the future, they cannot afford their own property, they do not how they can live when they're old, that is scary for the younger generation and that is something

we are not experiencing in germany yet, so i struggle to grasp this shift to the left in this country but i can understand it. you have always had people on the fringes of the labour party about revolution. but it is kind of the manifesto, that's a big difference. no, the... actually, corbyn's labour party, in terms of labour history is quite conservative in labour tradition, it was tony blair who was the labour radical, who shifted the party way off its original base and corbyn is talking about taxing people in order to have a good welfare state, which is what the labour party was all about. tony blair said you could not win if you did that because britain had changed. it is worth remembering, people forget, tony blair's manifesto in 1997, which he won, was incredibly radical. he had a £5 billion windfall tax just ripping money off in the utilities because they had been so badly privatised. but he had a whole series of very

radical policies and now people regard him as, iraq war tony blair, people forget. does that suggest it is just about how you dress this thing up because he was doing radical stuff but saying we are very responsible and serious and getting away with it, jeremy corbyn was doing radical stuff and we will see if he does, if he becomes prime minister, and he isjust picked up the public mood is a bit more sympathetic to that. i think so, i think this was an old—fashioned bribery manifesto. he said he would not raise anybody's taxes except the top 5%, well, that's impossible with the sorts of things that he wants to do. i think it was quite traditional, in terms of, here is something for everybody and nobody has to pay for it. in britain and around europe, describing things as left or right

can be misleading because macron is somewhere in the centre but for france this is radical, it is about change and many people feel that direction is wrong, whether you call it right or left, or beyond that, people want to reverse course or feel that the present course that they are on is not the right one. thank you all very much. fascinating stuff, some big issues raised there, important countries and we will talk more about those on this programme at the same time next week. we are here every week. from all of us, goodbye. hello. a run of real autumn weather

heading our way through the week ahead, even beyond. quite changeable, quite windy at times, a bit of wet weather. always a bit of sunshine between that and some chilly autumn misty mornings. alberto at the moment, a bit of a north selt split. all thanks to what is rolling in from the west. part of the reason we are seeing these changing conditions, low—pressure lined up, remnants of hurricane maria. the area of low pressure will affect us tomorrow. from the satellite imagery, clear skies across scotland, northern ireland. the clear skies across england dissipating, are bits of rain pushing across england and wales and cloud will dominate through the night. maybe clearing for a time in the far north of england before the publishers is way northwards again." in northern ireland in the far north of england before the publishers is way northwards again." northern ireland later on, the pressure in the atlantic starts to show its hand, outbreaks of rain. far north of england, clearer, three orfour

celsius in rural areas of scotland. grey skies for many, misty over the hills and more of is developing to my competitor what we have had. warm because we've got, drizzle, in england and wales. writing up in the afternoon, heavy rain through the middle part of the day, north—west england, sunshine developing late afternoon and into the evening. much of england and wales these grey and cloudy, quite muggy out there. a mixture of tropical air with us through tomorrow that it will not last long. and coming from a much colder source, a bit across the north atlantic, a different feel as we go through in it monday. this area of low pressure pushing across the north, the wind strength in quite rapidly into the night of monday morning. a few problems run monday morning. a few problems run monday morning, northern part of the uk, 50, 60 mob hour gustsjust about anywhere. 70 mile paris through the central belt of scotland and into

the west. some restrictions on the bridges and be prepared, a few branches down here and there as well. stay tuned to the forecast, keepin well. stay tuned to the forecast, keep in touch with the weather warnings online. the strong winds will be felt across much of the uk on monday. stronger the further north you are. frequent showers, somewhat heavy hail and thunder. we will see some heavier rain pushing on southern counties of england as we go through monday night. goodbye for now. this is bbc news. the headlines at 5... 0n the eve of the conservative party conference, borisjohnson again intervenes in the brexit debate — calling for a strict time limit on any transition deal. ukip‘s new leader henry bolton addresses his party conference in torquay —

attacking theresa may over brexit and immigration. doctors‘ surgeries are being closed, police numbers are being cut and crime is increasing, multi—culturalism is swamping or displacing our own british culture. spanish police step up efforts to stop the elections in catalonia which the government says