declaration of independence. the arab news leads on fears of a civil war over the disputed city of kirkuk if talks over kurdish independence from iraq are left unresolved. le figaro says workers unions are enlisting civil servants in their fight against french president emmanuel macron‘s labour reform plans. the guardian carries a warning that the cost of treating global ill health caused by obesity will exceed $1.2 trillion yearly from 2025. and finally, the evening standard is following syria's world cup dream. they've defied expectations to reach this far in qualifying and play australia later. so let's begin. with me is oliver cornock who is the editor—in—chief of the oxford business group. cadu see you. nice see you. we've

spoken before about the risks facing britain if it crashes out of the eu without a deal —— good to see you. this time this is an official strategy for how to cope with that if it happens. it seems a bit more polished on theresa may's mantra, no deal‘s better than a bad deal. the trouble is we're getting more detail on what a bad deal might include and there's talks of queues at borders for travellers and goods, all these things that might be unresolved, coming to have a practical impact on daily life. part of me thinks theresa may is only doing herjob to start talking in real terms about this, at the same time there's infighting in her own party, still divided on the approach to brexit. all the opposition parties gunning for her, saying this is too dramatic, there's not a concealer retreat and of tone so a difficult position for her. —— conciliatory

enough. she came out last week and said the ball is in her court and predictably they said the opposite. she has put out the worst case scenario in a way, hasn't she, and preparing everybody for what might happen if there is a crashing out at the end of negotiations. how do you think she did given last week's speech at the conservative party conference, which was a bit of a divorced on many fronts, how did she seem yesterday from your point of view —— disaster. a bit of a train crash at the party conference of it should only be up but this doesn't seem up very far, this is quite a bleak outlook. perhaps she's doing the right thing by positioning and posturing because we have to get through these initial negotiations on the divorce bill before we can talk about the trade bill, and of course that's the future. uk trade with europe is really significant. many are arguing that by doing this yesterday in parliament she's putting more and more pressure on

brussels to say, we're ready for anything, we will not basically negotiate because we're desperate. we're not desperate at all, we've got every base covered. is that the response she's going to get in brussels? is that what they will read between the lines in brussels? she's received a huge amount of criticism, if she wasn't being firm then the critics would have even more to chuck at her. something else the people in brussels will be watching closely is events in catalonia, big replications if the cata la ns catalonia, big replications if the catalans go for independence. the irish times covering this, as many papers are, he may or may not declare, the leader of the catalan government, declare independence unilaterally. he seems to have moderated his language, as you say, this is something brussels will be alarmed by. we've seen how the northern ireland question has played in to brexit possessions. any discussion on behalf of a state

a lwa ys discussion on behalf of a state always receives huge levels of respect in brussels and there is no surprise the eu has waded in. this more broadly shows the language has moderated a bit. it's important only 48% of the voters came out, of which 90% voted for independence, that is still less than half the regional population in a referendum that wasn't endorsed by madrid. politically you have to question the basis of that but i'm pleased to see moderating language hopefully. we'll see what the president of catalonia says later today, all eyes on him, it's a cliche but i think that's true in this case. arab news, this headline on theirfront true in this case. arab news, this headline on their front page, iraqi vice president sees danger of civil war over kirkuk. you know this part of the world extremely well, what's going on here? this is one of those intractable situations. another headline with war on the headline in

the arab world on a newspaper sends alarm bells ringing. the simple fact is kirkuk was outside the kurdish autonomous region and the kurds took over kirkuk if you like, administered it, it was always under baghdad before so this is actually pa rt baghdad before so this is actually part of a steadily increasing encroachment of the kurdish area of iraq and plays to what i've been saying for a long time, and what a lot of us who watch this region say, iraq is being carved up. we have to get beyond the idea that it can get back to its integralform. when alawi, the president... the vice president of iraq, is saying negotiations need to succeed, there is huge pressure here. i'm just pleased he's talking about negotiations and the fear of war because we know this is a region plagued by war. to quote a phrase the people don't want another war and i'm pleased to see constructive dialogue. russia of course is looking in as well, turkey and iran,

with vested interests, both have restive kurdish populations. who holds the initiative in averting his fear of a civil war? it's a good point. perhaps both the kurdish region president and the iraqi president have to much of a vested interest, perhaps it is for turkey and iran to get involved and we talk about a negotiated solution to this, but i don't see people coming to the table willingly. it's a good point, who is going to start driving this? we've already talked about france and the day ahead there, a quick point on that? it's interesting. macron is relatively powerful in terms of his reform strategy. he's very unpopular at the moment but you have to say he's going to be. it has to be said these laws have already passed, it's all well and good if the unions get strangely united and go against this, but these laws are

already on the statute book. talking about his unpopularity is normal when someone's been elected after the honeymoon period, especially if you are pushing through reform on this scale. this is big reform he pushing through in the public sector. we are seeing newly elected leaders all over the world having huge popularity plummets. in france if things involve air—traffic controllers, it doesn'tjust involve people going into france but also those going across france. be prepared perhaps for some delays. the guardian next? we should all be hitting the treadmill by the sounds, global cost of obesity exceeding $1.2 trillion by 2025 per year. this isa $1.2 trillion by 2025 per year. this is a really interesting story. in the developed world we've been talking about health, lifestyle related illnesses and costs for a long time. it's interesting at the oxford business group, we look at emerging markets, this is becoming a

big problem. looking at the gulf and the middle east, huge levels of obesity, which leads to heart disease and diabetes, these then becomes huge systemic burdens on the state so actually it's becoming a global problem, as the guardian is saying, a huge bill and it comes down to all sorts of things. but the simple fact is you don't put on what you don't put in. the evening standard celebrating syria's football team, nice to have a good news story coming out of syria. story about syria without war or killing in the headline, wonderful. you can go to the wackiest place and people want to talk about football all over the world, it's a very new kings sport and you have to hope there's a glimmer of positivity for there's a glimmer of positivity for the syrian people —— very uniting sport. and the icelandic is got through. they beat england ——

icelandic cripple. they don't let you forget it, every five minutes when i was there —— icelandics. they don't let you forget it. with good reason. thanks very much indeed, oliver, good to get your thoughts on that, covered a huge amount of ground but lovely to end on that positive note, the story about syria that doesn't involve war. thanks for your company. if you're watching on bbc one you will be joining the breakfast team in five minutes. if you are on bbc world news then you're stuck with me and then eat. stay with us wherever you soon. “— then eat. stay with us wherever you soon. —— me and ben. hello there. quite a lot of cloud first thing across the southern half of the british isles. some drizzly outbreaks of rain, as well, in parts of england and wales. the best of the sunshine

first thing today is likely to be across scotland. for northern england, perhaps some breaks in the cloud, and for the midlands, too. here's the picture first thing, as you can see. fairly solid cloud across england and wales. we'll take a closer look at where the breaks are to be found injust a second. but really, you can already see the contrast — scotland and northern england looking much clearer. northern ireland likely to see some sunshine in shelter from the westerly or south—westerly wind. but some showers arriving through the morning as well, one or two of them heavy during the rush hour. still strong winds and some heftier showers for the northern isles. the showers as we head onto mainland of scotland a little bit more scattered. some heavier ones possible through the central lowlands. but here at least, in between the showers, some decent sunshine. sunshine across northern england first thing, too. although look out for some rain around the liverpool bay area, stringing across towards lincolnshire. some glimmers of sunshine for the midlands and perhaps the south—east of england. thicker cloud, however, across the south—west, and some more persistent, if not especially heavy, outbreaks of rain to be found here. stretch those across the bristol channel into southern wales, as well.

to the lee of the welsh hills and mountains, however, there should be some sunshine to get the day underway through herefordshire and up into the likes of warwickshire and into the midlands. things improve through the morning. i think we'll see more in the way of sunshine, whereas further south, some of that cloud is going to filter its way further eastwards into the south—east of england. so enjoy any early brightness, because it looks like the afternoon for the south—east of england and east anglia will be cloudy, with some outbreaks of rain. further west, a little brighter. but then cast your eye towards the north—west, where, after that glorious start for scotland, it's all really gone downhill — thicker cloud and outbreaks of rain arriving. that's this frontal system here, coming in from the north. tightly squeezing isobars, as well, mean strong winds, and that wet weather pushes across northern ireland, northern england, into wales and the midlands through the small hours of wednesday. so a pretty wet and windy story as wednesday gets underway, and this rain is really going to tot up as well for some parts of southern scotland, northern england and for wales. particularly, i think,

the cumbrian fells and the mountains of snowdonia getting a real dollop of rain, perhaps up to 100mm before we're through with this weather system, the rain getting further south into wales and the south—west of england come the afternoon. the south—east, with some sunshine, could see up to 18 degrees though, and northern ireland and scotland will clear as the day goes on. thursday probably the best day of the week across the board, in terms of some dry and fine weather. just light winds, as well. and temperatures around average for the time of year, in the mid teens. hello, this is breakfast, with louise minchin and dan walker. the data which highlights sweeping inequalities between ethnic in britain — a government study reveals how the public sector treats people from different backgrounds, affecting their education, housing and job prospects. good morning.

it's tuesday, the 10th of october. also this morning: a major breakthrough in crimefighting technology — the new fingerprint technique which tells if a suspect has taken drugs and even what they've eaten will soon be used in court. wildfires raging across california's wine region have killed at least ten people and destroyed hundreds of homes.