Skip to main content

tv   HAR Dtalk  BBC News  October 11, 2017 12:30am-1:01am BST

12:30 am
allegations of rape. the new yorker magazine has published accusations he raped three women. his spokesperson said he "unequivocally denied" any allegations of non—consensual sex. catalonia's president has signed a declaration of independence but suspended breaking away from spain to give time for dialogue. spain's deputy pm repeated the view that the referendum was illegal. and let's have a look at this video which is trending online. tourists crossing this glass walkway, attached to a mountain, got a real scare. they were tricked into thinking the glass was shattering under theirfeet. the park in china had to apologise for the special effect. that's all from me now. stay with bbc world news. now on bbc news, it's time for hardtalk. stop smoking, eat less, exercise more and pay your taxes on time. so many things governments want us
12:31 am
to do; so hard to get us to do them. hardtalk speaks to behavioural economist richard thaler who thinks he has the answer. it's called ‘nudge‘ theory, but it's notjust an academic idea. britain's prime minister is so impressed, he's set up a whole ‘nudge unit‘ in the heart of his government. if you live in britain, you may unwittingly already be part of a nudge experiment. so is the nudge guru richard thaler teaching those in power how to encourage us to live better, or helping politicians to control us? welcome to hardtalk. what is this nudge theory? it is some feature of the environment that attracts attention and influences behaviour. how does this differ from the traditional approach that has been adopted
12:32 am
to improve behaviour? i think the basic idea of the ‘nudge unit‘ is reallyjust to take all we know about behavioural science, and how people think and behave, and make use of that to figure out how to implement government policy that is effective. economists have traditionally thought of people as rational in the choices they make but also rather selfish. do you think that is being too narrow a view? i think so. i don't like the word rational. we are human.
12:33 am
difficult problems we will trip us up sometimes. we don't always have the self—control to do what we think we should do. many are obese, many smoke. if you ask most smokers, they say they'd like to quit if they could figure out how. economists view everyone as doing precisely what is best for them at all times, and that's just not accurate. give us some examples of how this is being used. i have seen a quote about something the british government has done with letters sent out to people that are slow on paying their taxes. there is a unit of the treasury whose job it is to collect from the people who have not paid tax. most people who are on a salary in britain, their taxes are done automatically.
12:34 am
they pay as they earn. if you have outside incomes from various sources, it's up to you to write out the cheque at the end of each year and some people forget or whatever. there's a division in the treasury whose job it is to collect from those who owe money and have not paid. they write letters. they wonder whether the letters are effective or not. the thing we try to teach people in whitehall is that nobody knows all the answers in advance. i don't know what the best letter is. social science gives us a few hints. my first guess at what the letter may be, may well work better than the current letter. so let's try ten letters. we've been running various random controlled trials. we send out one version of the letter and other people get other versions. we see which one works best.
12:35 am
what has been the most effective technique for getting people to pay up? there are two principles that seem to be most effective. one is reminding people truthfully that most of their fellow citizens pay their taxes on time. that's called the positive social norm. most people behave and you should also behave. the other one is making it personal. saying things like most people pay their taxes on time. and we say most people in exeter where you live pay on time.
12:36 am
that helps a bit more. if we mention some of the benefits that the town receives from the taxes and that will help even more. that's the basic idea. we do continue to try to find out what the most effective one is. these are randomised trials. the essential element of what you persuaded the british government to do, the analogy is in medical research. you can take part in trials. they know they are taking part. in this approach, people are part of the experiment — having no idea they are being experimented upon. that's true, but you know, that happens every day. you get a letterfrom the bank. they ask if you?d like to take a credit card. thousands of versions of that letter exist. there's nothing really very new or sinister about this. this isn't that different because it's the government doing
12:37 am
this as opposed to a private entity? it's more likely that it's an attempt to do something that is in society's best interest, rather than in the interest of the company sending you the letter. i don't see it as sinister. when does motivation, persuading people to improve their behaviour, become manipulation? i suppose manipulation is a pejorative word. i don't know if we can draw any hard lines. one of my favourite nudges, one i make use of all the time is — when i spend time in london is — the helpful little signs that appear at intersections reminding us to look right, because, as you know, you drive on the wrong side of the road over here.
12:38 am
those big buses come from the wrong direction. i consider those signs a helpful nudge. if you consider them manipulation, i'd say that's inaccurate. that is explicit. the interesting thing about the way the ‘nudge‘ theory works is that these things are not explicit. you don't say it's an incentive to do something, but you are encouraged to change your behaviour. perhaps that explanation is not given in those letters. we don't tell you this because it's more likely to make you behave in another way. that right, but we are publishing the research about this. it's not a big secret. i don't think the letter would work particularly well if you told people that we are trying
12:39 am
to manipulate them. you are trying to motivate them? it?s in society's interest for them to pay their taxes. if you look at the european governments that are in the most trouble right now, one of the biggest reasons, perhaps the biggest single reason, is that most people don't pay taxes. is that about the social norm? it's not a question about whether the government thinks they should, that it?s right or wrong, what society thinks. one criticism i see about these theories on its own, is that it does not work. it only works if it builds on an existing cultural social—accepted form of behaviour. you cannot go against that. i don't think that's right. in the last few decades, in the us at least, some people have taken to cleaning up after their dog. i live across the road from a park in chicago. i see dog owners walking in the park, having a little
12:40 am
bag with them. i think there's a law. i've never heard of anyone being arrested for failing to follow that law. we have changed the social norm. the park is more pleasant to walk in. i think it would be possible to change the social norms in a country like greece where people felt that they needed to pay taxes, as opposed to now where they think only a fool would pay their tax. how does this differ from some places in europe that are called a ? nanny state? where the government and the machinery of government tells you the structure of how you should live your life. the whole idea behind
12:41 am
the book that we wrote, the title is nudge. we gave that the title of lebertarian paternalism. we gave that the title of libertarian paternalism. it sounds like a contradiction. it does sound like an oxymoron. here is what we mean by that. we never force anybody to do anything. paternalism means simply helping people achieve their goals. if i'm lost, i usually am in london, and i ask somebody the way to piccadilly circus? they point me in the correct direction, and they are paternalist by definition. they try to help me achieve my goal. i think the nanny state involves coercion.
12:42 am
if we banned cigarettes, that's fine to call it a nanny state. if we help people and make it easier for you to give up somehow, then that creates a nudge. the presumption is that all governments are doing things for the right reasons. i don't run any governments. you're being quite involved with one at the moment, with one set up in the heart britain. influencing the way government makes decision and saying you save millions of pounds in taxpayers‘ money. you're an influential figure. that's right, but when people ask me to sign a copy of my book i sign it "nudge for good" which is a hope that nudging us every day taking our money and putting it in their pockets.
12:43 am
i think that those who live in democracies, we elect a government to help run society. if they do that just for evil we should vote them out. the way it normally works traditionally, is that the government comes up with an idea — putting it forward. they establish legislation and regulations because of that process. there's a debate and an argument. there is a vote and it?s up front and visible. there is the potential risk that a government who is enthusiastic about this theory, that much of this is done and very subtly in a way that people cannot necessarily see. that's when the ethical doubt is raised. i think that's a complete misconception. we've been working in job centres. they are there to help people find jobs.
12:44 am
and we had a few members of the team spend a few weeks in various job centres watching what they do. the end result of that is that we will be running experiments to help the people who work in those places to be more effective at finding peoplejobs. now, there are... everybody in government is trying to do the job. someone at the bbc has coached you on the best way of conducting this interview. you have not revealed that to me or the audience. you are manipulating me. you're manipulating the audience. i would not use that word. i'd say you're doing yourjob. you're trying to make this interview as useful as possible.
12:45 am
so i think manipulation isjust a red herring. but no case of manipulation in providing a motive? you say nudge the good. but it has the potential to be misused. brendan o'neill told the telegraph that he thought it was a kind of mind trickery to hoodwink the people of britain to adopt a state—ordered lifestyle. yeah, that's rubbish. when we see the "look right" sign, is there something
12:46 am
surreptitious about that? there is no secret plan. there is no big brother. in fact, one of the most important things we're doing, and this is in the process of working its way through parliament right now, is getting consumers to have the right to see their own usage data from the suppliers. so, if you go to a supermarket and they have a shoppers‘ club, they're collecting data on all the things you buy. we think you should... and they seek to nudge you by changing the arrangement of things they offer you. exactly. we want you to be able to have that data, and say you are a kid who has a peanut allergy. well, by allowing you access to that data someone will write an app, nopeanuts.co, and you'll be able to upload all of your purchases and get
12:47 am
back a list of things you should stop buying. you know, the nudge unit mantra is make it easy. that's what we're trying to do. we're trying to make life easier for the citizens of britain. there are areas this has not been used in so far. we're told it's not being used, for instance, for foreign for macro—economic policy. but i wonder if it might help with things like tax rates? in britain, they cut the highest rate of tax from 50p in the pound down to 45p in the pound, and part of the theory was that people would be more likely to pay if it was 45p in the pound than 50p in the pound. i do not know if your unit was used to provide evidence for that. but might there be a case to say that big policy decisions like that could be helpfully influenced by using the sort of information that you use to decide
12:48 am
on what will nudge us to do the right thing? well, first of all, i'd say if we're more effective at getting people to pay the taxes they owe, we can reduce the rates. so — but the second thing is, britain is about to launch a new pension scheme that has all kinds of behavioural principles built into it. it's been in the works for several years. lord turner, i think, was involved in this. and so people will be automatically enrolled into the programme. that is not a nudge, is it? that's compulsion. precisely not. it's not compulsion. really? they're automatically enrolled and they're free to drop out. but presumably government thinks they won't, though. otherwise the finance
12:49 am
of the thing fall apart. if everyone opts out, it will be a useless programme. but what we know is if you make it... if you automatically enrol people, most people think they should be saving for retirement and never get around to it. if you make it easy, our mantra, "make it easy", fill out all the forms, then more people will join, and there will be fewer people who are wards of the state in their old age. i think that's a worthy thing. what impact does culture have on this theory? a behavioural scientist is doing similar work with the french government. and he said that the french have a tendency not to comply as easily with social norms compared to brits and americans, the anglo—saxons. he says it will not be enough to get them to change their own behaviour.
12:50 am
are there cultural limits that you've encountered ? well, ithink, as a rule, there's a vast literature on cross—cultural differences. and a great simplification would be that they tend to be second—order. so the first—order results, that people are more sensitive to losses than gains, is a fact about the human condition. whether the chinese a re less loss—averse than the ethiopians, perhaps. as things spread out — one of the young guys in our unit is going off to do a year in australia, because they want to try some of these things over there. if the aussies are different than the brits, maybe things will have to be done differently. that's why we test.
12:51 am
the longer—term question is, if you change behaviour, can you sustain that change in behaviour? well, i think my little dog—walking example works. now — when i was a kid, and seatbelts were new, you had to nudge people to buckle up. now, people don't think about it. kids grew up buckling their seatbelts, and now they just do it. so you can change cultural norms. in 2010, a journalist said it the danger of "nudge" is it has become a case study in how big ideas get corrupted. that author suggested politicians that are looking for a short—term fix, the quick, cost—effective solution, take an idea like this and run with it, but actually they take it away
12:52 am
from what it was intended for. well, some people may do that. i would say precisely the opposite is true of the behavioural insight team in britain. everything we do, we test. there's no rush into anything. and in the first trip over here, when i was taken around to see one minister after another, the phrase i kept saying, we can't do evidence—based policy without evidence. and so everything we try to do, we try to test. and the alternative to what we're doing is arrogance. it's arrogance to think that you know what the right way of doing things is. i don't think i know. i'm pretty sure that if you automatically enrol people into a pension plan, most of them willjoin. and we have millions of data points in america to support that because companies have adopted it.
12:53 am
but, you know, not every one of my ideas is right. and that's why i insist that we test everything that we do. and i'm human. everybody on the nudge unit is human. and we're just trying to help british citizens go about their lives more successfully. one of the famous examples you quoted was the one of putting a fly inside a urinal, in a toilet, and improving men's aim. it's a classic example of sustainable behaviour. are men still aiming better as a result of that, or is their attention drifting? well, i haven't seen any new data. but, you know, that is a fun example. it's one sentence in the book,
12:54 am
and it's probably the most famous sentence. but i think it's an illustration of an intervention that was nearly costless, and helpful. if you want to say we're manipulating men to aim where they should, then i plead guilty. let me put this to you. there has been a british inquiry into this — behavioural change is a good thing, nudge is useful, but people need a 20—25 year span before their behaviour changes. i don't know what studies the baroness was reading, but that's just demonstrably false. professor richard thaler, thank you forjoining us on hardtalk my pleasure. thank you. hello there.
12:55 am
we have a wet wednesday on the cards for some western parts of the british isles. some heavy rain, some strong winds, as well, courtesy of a slow—moving weather front. an area of low pressure drifting to the north—west of the british isles. this front here really dragging its heels, as it pushes its way south and east. so in some places it will rain for pretty much all day long. now, down to the south—west of england, could be some patchy rainfirst thing. but a lot of dry weather at 8:00am in the morning, and that dry theme extends further east, as well. certainly across south—east england and east anglia we will see some spells of sunshine. fairly large areas of cloud floating around, as well. temperatures around 14 degrees. similar story for the midlands — north—east england getting off to a mainly dry start, particularly close to the east coast. a similar story for northern scotland, although some hefty
12:56 am
showers will be packing in here. south—west scotland having a wet start. pretty miserable rush hour in glasgow. rain moving across northern ireland for a time, but the wettest weather will be across north wales and the north—west of england. and here, with a south—westerly wind just funnelling this rain in across the same places for hour upon hour upon hour, especially over high ground, could see 50mm to 80mm of rain, maybe 100mm or more for some of the hills of cumbria. could be enough to give some issues of localised flooding, and the winds could be strong — could be gales in exposed spots. so our band of rain only slowly moving southwards, and could be enough to give some issues with localised flooding. behind it, something brighter for scotland and northern ireland, but some hefty showers, too. staying largely dry down towards the south—east, but often fairly cloudy, and temperatures of 14 to 17 degrees. but our slow—moving weather front finally gets its act together during wednesday night, pushing off to the east. and, behind it, will leave
12:57 am
largely clear skies. could be the odd fog patch here and there, and particularly in the south, where the winds fall light, it could be a bit chilly. some outbreaks of rain here later, 12 to 17 degrees. that cloud in the north—west will then sink its way into the picture on friday. another band of heavy rain, this one also quite slow—moving. the further south you are, it could be a bit chilly. some spots down to about four or five degrees. thursday, then, a decent day. certainly a dry day for north—east england and north wales. mainly fine, with some spells of sunshine. the further south you are, though, particularly if you get some sunshine, your temperatures could get up to 20 degrees. a sign of what is to come for the weekend, warmer air wafting up from the south. and, if the sun does come out, we could get to 23 degrees. but it will always be cooler, with some rain, towards the north—west. this is newsday on the bbc. i'm rico hizon in singapore. the headlines: fresh allegations against harvey weinstein —
12:58 am
the hollywood producer "unequivocally" denies claims that he raped three women. catalonia's president signs a declaration of independence, but suspends the move away from spain, to make time for dialogue with madrid. i'm kasia madeira in london. also in the programme: hackers from north korea are reported to have stolen military documents from south korea, including a plan to assassinate the north's leader kim jong—un. and it's the ultra—stinky fruit which is loved and loathed in equal measure. now scientists reveal the secret behind the durian's overpowering aroma.
12:59 am
1:00 am

101 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on