inflation hits its highest level in more than five years — piling on the pressure for household budgets. higher transport and food costs have helped drive it up to 3% — and the bank of england says it's likely to go higher. we expect that inflation will peak in around the october figure, october/november figures and so peaking potentially above the 3% level. it's now thought the first interest rate rise in 10 years could happen as soon as next month. also this lunchtime: a second referendum that reversed brexit would have a positive and significant impact on the uk economy, claims the international think tank the oecd. just hours after being released from a secure hospitaljeffrey barry killed kurdish refugee kamil ahmad — stabbing him 25 times. the brexit vote and terror attacks fuel the largest annual rise in hate crimes in the uk since records began. eyes in the sky — how australia is turning to drone technology to try to prevent shark attacks.

and crimewatch — one of the bbc‘s longest—running shows — is axed after 33 years. coming up in the sport on bbc news, we'll have details of the world cup play—off draw as northern ireland find out who they have to beat to make it to russia next summer. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. inflation has reached its highest level in more than five years — driven up by increases in transport and food prices. the rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, increased to 3% last

month — up from 2.9% in august. it's good news for pensioners who are in line to get a 3% pension increase from next april. but for the working population and people on benefits it will put more pressure on already stretched household incomes. our economics correspondent andy verity reports. what's this got to do with the cost of living? the price of fish was one of living? the price of fish was one of the fastest rising goods in the year to september, up by 13.6%. if you're thinking of putting it in this, that is up by 14.9%. other prizes like air fares were down. the 396 prizes like air fares were down. the 3% average price rise was higher thanit 3% average price rise was higher than it has been since april 20 i2. cars, food and clothing. everything is on the way up. food prices. especially the cost of heating, lighting, gas and electricity. those coi'isuitiei’ lighting, gas and electricity. those consumer products, there's other things that have increased the most. the entire shop, really, has gone up

even in the last five years, it's probably gone up from £100 per week to £130 per week. the bank of england expects inflation to get a little higher before it drops back. we expect that inflation will peak in around the october figure, october, novemberfigures in around the october figure, october, november figures and so peaking potentially above the 3% level. september's inflation number is used to set basic state pension is used to set basic state pension is so they should rise by 3% next april. that compares with wages. right now they are going up by 2.1% and if you are receiving working age benefits they will not go at all next april, so you are getting a real cut. a policy of freezing benefits for people of working age is one of the biggest austerity measures. it saves the government money but removes it from bedford recipients. —— benefit recipients. the inflation represents one of the

biggest real terms wheezes on benefits we have seen for decades. it is set to save the government £1.9 billion per year in 2018,19, but that means losses for many families. if we take a working family with two children they are set to leave the girl lose £1005 per year. the chancellor was urged to address the key reason why wages are not keeping up with prices or pensions. the amount each worker can produce, productivity, has not been growing like it used to. why is it so growing like it used to. why is it so important? because productivity is the key to the future growth of the economy and productivity, higher productivity, is the key to better wages. no wonder we have low wages! we have very low productivity! we need to increase productivity in order to get the wages up. shops and other firms face one more order to get the wages up. shops and otherfirms face one more rising cost. business rates, which are set to go up by the old—fashioned retail prices index for september, 3.9%. in

the city comedies also now seen as highly likely that next month, for the first time in more than a decade, interest rates will have rise. the international think—tank the oecd has claimed that a second referendum that reversed brexit would have a positive and significant impact on the uk's economy. and it has called on the uk to maintain close ties with the european union after it leaves — or risk damage to the economy. the warning comes as comes as ministers from across the eu meet in luxembourg to discuss the brexit negotiations, following theresa may's working dinner with the president of the european commission last night. our political correspondent alex forsyth reports. arriving for a cabinet meeting this morning, greeted by the same questions. did the prime minister's dinner achieve anything? the boss, the prime minister, wasjust back from brussels after trying to unblock brexit talks, claiming things will accelerate in coming

months. are you disappointed to may didn't put a tiger in the tank last night? at the treasury, a warning from an influential think tank about the danger of not getting a deal and the danger of not getting a deal and the risk of brexit uncertainty. the uk's preparation for brexit in 20 to 2019 is of course the source and i don't need to tell you this is not something which is either a mystery... is an element of uncertainty and therefore will continue to weigh on the outlook of the economy. until those uncertainties are resolved. the oecd even suggested another vote could have a positive effect on the economy. the government says there will be no second referendum. it is working to get a good deal, but it is unlikely that when eu leaders meet ina is unlikely that when eu leaders meet in a few days, they will agree to start talking trade or future relationships. they still have to resolve some of the separation issues first, not least what the uk

might pay the eu. there's been no major breakthrough in these talks, despite diplomatic efforts. last night's dinner resorted to grow resulted in one word, but both sides behind the scenes seems to be standing firm on the financial settlement. although the uk says the meal was constructive. settlement. although the uk says the mealwas constructive. it settlement. although the uk says the meal was constructive. it is always useful to meet informally to discuss theissues useful to meet informally to discuss the issues in the round. that is what last night did, diplomacy, and it was a very productive dinner and productive discussion and so i think it just helps productive discussion and so i think itjust helps advance the prospects for a good deal. but at a meeting in luxembourg today, eu ministers warned there is still much work to do before things can move on. everybody wants this process to move forward , everybody wants this process to move forward, but there is a structured in negotiations. that structure is clear, there needs to be sufficient progress under three key issues in phase one before we can move on to

phase one before we can move on to phase two. you need this progress and then it is important that we already can prepare now what could be the next stage. i think that is also important for the uk. satisfying all those involved in the negotiation is proving tough and time—consuming. everyone is keen to get a deal but no one is clear yet how they will do it. in a moment we'll speak to our assistant political editor norman smith in westminster, but first, let's go to luxembourg and adam fleming. accelerate these talks, that is what we keep hearing about the clock is ticking and no sign of acceleration just yet. well, the eu affairs minister is arriving here in luxembourg this morning, talking as they walked into the meeting to discuss brexit and prepare for the big eu summit in brussels at the end of the week, certainly didn't feel the need for speed. they were sticking to the eu script on brexit which is that that this first phase needs disease is the natural

substantial progress on withdrawal issues like the rights of eu nationals who wish to stay in the uk after brexit, how are they treated? is there a role for the european court of justice? and is there a role for the european court ofjustice? and the sticking point which is finding a way of calculating how much money the uk owes to the eu when it leaves. ministers saying there has to be substantial progress on that before we can move to phase two, which is talks about trade, the future relationship and any kind of transition or implementation phase. they say they are still united behind the chief negotiator, behind the timetable and behind the process. with the finnish europe minister saying he felt the eu 27 remaining members were more united than the uk one. if i'm honest, today's meeting is not the crucial thing this week, it is the meeting of eu leaders in brussels on thursday and friday. adam, thank you. norman smith is in westminster. a second referendum would have a

positive effect if it reversed brexit. that is not realistic, is it? the arter sadly not. mr hammond has already said it is not happening and even the most optimistic remainer would concede it is about as likely as the loch ness monster putting in a surprise appearance at least for now. the real sailors of the oecd report is its warnings about the impact of no deal. no deal as opposed to a second referendum is as opposed to a second referendum is a realfault line in the brexit debate. the oecd say if we get a deal than the economy will still grow at around 1%. if we do not get a deal, the pound will fall to new lows, business confidence, business investment, consumerspending, lows, business confidence, business investment, consumer spending, all that will be hit and that is where this is me's dinner diplomacy comes in because if she cannot secure, we move remorselessly into no deal territory. here is her conundrum. it is becoming clear key to progress on

these talks is cash. putting more money on the table to get the eu to agree to move onto trade negotiations. the difficulty in doing that is mrs may has to sell the idea to voters and her own mps, many of whom are breathing down her neck with the clock ticking and her own position so fragile. norman and adam, thank you both. a man has been found guilty of murdering a kurdish refugee, just hours after he'd been released from a secure hospital. jeffrey barry, who lived in the same supported housing as kamil ahmad, stabbed him more than 25 times in what was described as a sustained and savage attack. jon kay reports. 1am, and jeffrey barry heads from his flat to kamil ahmad's bedsit. in his waistband, a large kitchen knife. he knocks on kamil‘s door, and inside stabs the kurdish refugee more than 25 times,

before mutilating his body. that's like a black cloud in my life, you know... kamil‘s brother believes the attack could and should have been prevented in a country they came to for protection. he came here to be safe. to just lead a normal life. but why, how come he got this? why did this happen, and how did it happen? jeffrey barry had a long history of severe psychiatric problems, including episodes of paranoid schizophrenia. this is the supported living accommodation in bristol where the two men were living, and six weeks before the attack jeffrey barry told staff here that he wanted to kill someone, that he wanted to be notorious, and he said kamilahmad was top of his list. he'd left notes, saying he was planning to kill kamil, along with everybody else on the street. in the weeks before the attack barry was sectioned, but he was released from this

hospital by a mental health tribunal against the advice of a psychiatrist. he returned to the house, and within hours had killed the refugee. he called 999, and said he'd warned mental health professionals. that was his defence in court, flanked by staff from broadmoor high security hospital. but today barry has been convicted unanimously of murder. kamil‘s family believe the 48—year—old would still be alive if he had been warned barry

was returning that night, and if staff in the house had been given time to come up with a plan. i am very angry... his brother told me all the agencies involved must reflect on this case. his brother told me all the agencies must reflect on this case. i hope they learn, you know, what has happened to my brother, so it doesn't happen to anybody else again, because only i know how i feel, you know? only we know how i feel, to have lost a loving brother, you know. and they could have done something about it beforehand. a review will be published next year. that review will ask questions such as, was it right forjeffrey barry to be released from hospital that day? should he have been allowed to go back to the house where kamil was living? should jeffrey barry dunn have been warned? should the staff have been warned? should the staff have had some warning to come up with a care plan to keep the two men apart? the avon and wiltshire mental

health partnership have issued a statement this lunchtime saying that they regret what has happened, they have reviewed the procedures and strengthened the way in which they work with other agencies. meanwhile, jeffrey barry convicted of murder and thejudge jeffrey barry convicted of murder and the judge is jeffrey barry convicted of murder and thejudge is in there right now deciding when he be sentenced. thank you. a deal has been struck which could help safeguard jobs at the bombardier aircraft factory in northern ireland. the european manufacturer airbus has taken a stake in bombardier‘s c—series jet, which has wings built in belfast. the deal would allow some of the planes to be assembled at an airbus plant in alabama, avoiding import duties us authorities have threatened to impose. a us—backed militia in syria says it's taken control of raqqa after months of fighting with islamic state militants. the success of the syrian democratic forces is being seen as another heavy blow to is's self—styled caliphate. raqqa was their base for planning attacks on the west it is thought the group controls

just a handful of towns along the valley. the number of hate crimes has increased by nearly 30%. the biggest spikes coincided with the eu referendum and terror attacks. most we re referendum and terror attacks. most were racially motivated but the biggest rise was in disability hate crimes, which went up by more than 50%. westminster in march. the first of this year's terror attacks in the uk. five people, including pc keith palmer, died, after the killer, khalid masood, went on his murderous rampage, first with a car and then with a knife. in the days that followed there was an increase in hate crime. just one of the reasons why it's gone up in the last year. there were 80,393 hate crimes recorded by the police in england and wales. this was a rise of 29% on the previous 12 months, and there was an increase in all categories of hate crime. john gillespie was a victim of hate crime, targeted because he has

a learning disability. he had a necklace stolen, picked on because the thief knew he was vulnerable. it made me feel so sick, that somebody could have... that somebody could do that to someone like me. the period after the brexit vote saw a spike in race hate crimes. this family were victims. the majority of hate crime is race related. today's annual figures only go up to the end of march this year, so they don't cover the weeks following the terror attacks in manchester, and at london bridge and finsbury park mosque, but police data is showing a rise in hate crime after all of them. and these were the offences that were reported — many victims never go to the police. june kelly, bbc news. our top story this lunchtime:

inflation hits its highest level in more than five years — driven up by increases in transport and food prices. coming up: after taking a battering from storm ophelia — ireland's big clean up begins. coming up in sport in the next 15 minutes on bbc news: we're looking ahead to tonights champions league fixtures, with tottenham preparing to face the 12 time champions real madrid in the bernabeu. they're called ‘reconnection' tickets — one way train tickets bought for homeless people by a number of local councils in england. more than a thousand pounds a year has been spent on the scheme to put rough sleepers back in touch with theirfamilies. but one man says he was offered a ticket to a city he had never been to before. anna collinson from the bbc victoria derbyshire programme reports. i'm taking you through the park to the place where i used to stay every single night on the streets.

mhairi hopkins developed post—natal depression after giving birth a few years ago. while her parents took care of her son, the 22—year—old's mental health deteriorated. eventually she ran out of places to stay. you don't know who's watching you, you don't if you're going to get up in the morning safe. i was doing this every single night, i'd wake up at least four, five times a night and look around at what was going on, try and calm myself down. you've got such a broken sleep pattern. you didn't actually sleep. one night every autumn local authorities in england count how many people are sleeping rough. last year there were more than 4000, a 130% rise in six years. some charities are sceptical about how the data is collected because councils can choose to enter an estimate if they prefer. in 2016 large cities featured prominently in the 20 areas with the worst problem. but not too far behind was a seaside town, with a population of 180,000, where homelessness has trebled since 2010.

this is a really popular place for homeless people to hang out, particularly at night but in 2015 the council started playing loud music like bagpipes and alvin and the chipmunks. they said it was to stop anti—social behaviour. then it emerged the council were buying homeless people train tickets. but there was a condition. they were one—way. the idea being they could send people back to where they came from. bournemouth council didn't want to be interviewed, but said it only offered one—way train tickets to homeless people who were not from the area. and "where it can be proven that the service user can be safely reconnected back to the area of locality". it made me feel sick, because i've lived here all my life, you know. so what they want to try and do is get all the homeless people out of bournemouth because they see it as it is making bournemouth a bad place.

while mhairi is no longer sleeping rough, thousands of others are this winter. the government says it's investing £550 million to tackle the problem as well as implementing the homelessness reduction act which goes active in april. anna collinson, bbc news. a huge clear—up operation is taking place across ireland following the damage caused by storm ophelia, which killed three people. thousands are still without electricity after winds of around a hundred miles per hour brought power lines and trees. ben ando reports. trees down. power down. clearing up. across the island of ireland workers, homeowners, engineers, restoring electricity and transport links damaged under the onslaught of storm ophelia. the damage was worse in the south, where around a quarter million people are still without power. some are being warned they might be left in the dark for several days.

though engineers are working round the clock to reconnect everyone. the counties of cork and kerry bore the brunt of ophelia's 100 mph plus winds. ireland's national emergency coordination group is meeting in dublin, but hospitals and roads managed to reopen today. in northern ireland around 50,000 homes had power restored overnight. during the morning workers continued and now the number still without electricity is around 3000. during the night ophelia continued north, in scotland powered cuts affected around 1100 homes and in north wales 4000 lost electricity. compared to the south, northern ireland got off relatively lightly. though schools in both north and south remain closed for a second day. the decision to close schools here yesterday,

taken very late on sunday evening, was criticised. the decision to keep them closed today, meaning parents are having to find things to do with their youngsters, is also raising eyebrows. and while there were tragically three deaths and much damage to power lines and buildings, many will feel the wrath of storm ophelia could have been significantly worse. ben ando, bbc news, belfast. a woman whose partner was shot dead 15 years ago in what was believed to be a gangland killing — says she's been let down by police. in her first broadcast interview, leanne williams says officers should have been held to account for the mistakes made by staffordshire police during the investigation into the murder of her partner — 20 —year—old kevin nunes. the police watchdog — the ipcc — found that while the force was guilty of collective failings, individuals weren't to blame. phil mackie reports. how is it that nobody, not one person, has been disciplined? nobody. and it's just shocking for me. it's just absolutely shocking and ijust think it's really, really, really bad.

in september 2002, leanne williams was pregnant with kevin nunes‘ son when his bullet—ridden body was found near a farm in south staffordshire. five men were jailed for his murder, but their convictions quashed after it emerged that staffordshire police failed to disclose an internal report that would have raised questions about a witness' reliability. when the men were cleared, the appeal court said it had been a shocking episode which may have amounted to a serious perversion of the course ofjustice. initially the ipcc recommended that four senior officers should face misconduct hearings. jane sawyers, who retired this year as staffordshire's chief constable. adrian lee, who held at the top job at northamptonshire. suzette davenport, who became chief constable in gloucestershire. and marcus beale, the assistant chief constable in the west midlands. a five—year investigation ruled there were collective — but not individual — failings. the fact that...

there's wrongdoings all around. people got released. failures. this, that. and nobody‘s in trouble for it. i can't comprehend it, i'm just not understanding to what level that nobody feels they have to even get a slap on the wrist. 15 years since kevin nunes‘ body was dumped at this remote farm, his killers still haven't been caught. staffordshire police say that the investigation is still open and regularly reviewed. leanne williams hopes that someone will come forward with the information that will finally bring kevin's killers to justice. phil mackie, bbc news, staffordshire. and there's more on that story on file on four on bbc radio 4 at 8pm tonight. there were more than a dozen unprovoked shark attacks off

the coast of australia last year alone. now drone technology is being tested out to try to protect more swimmers and surfers. by by spotting sharks as they get close to the shore. hywel griffith has been to see them in action. a shadow in the sea or something more sinister? from the beach it's hard to tell, but from the skies, the drone has a clearer view. it feeds into deep—learning software which it's claimed has a 92% success rate in spotting sharks, as well as less—threatening species. every time it sees a dolphin, whale or a swimmer in distress, it learns their shape. launched along the beaches of new south wales, the drones can patrol for a0 minutes. daniel was one of the first to train as a life—saver pilot. i can't physically run out and grab a board and paddle out and save someone, but sitting on the beach, we've got eyes in the sky and we are just another layer of protection, really.

the drones don't only observe, they can react, too — dropping an inflatable device to help people in the sea. they won't replace the use of controversial shark nets and drum lines, however, which some claim do more harm than good. last year around australia there were 17 unprovoked shark attacks. the number isn't that high compared to how many people actually go in these waters, but it leaves a national preoccupation with the question of how to share the beaches between the human beings and the sea life. when this great white washed onto sydney shores recently, it was welcomed and christened fluffy. not everyone wants to get so close, even if the chances of an attack are minimal. it's that human innate fear of being attacked by a wild animal. but the risk to people that are entering the water rates so low on the scale as opposed to other threats going about your daily life — i mean traffic and cars and bee

stings and all those statistics. and for regulars in these waters, it's all part of the experience. i was actually swimming here once. i was six months pregnant and there was a shark alert. i did freak out a bit! if i'm going to die i'd prefer to be taken by a shark than have a stroke and end up in a nursing home. the drones won't be on every beach every day, but they should give everyone a better understanding of what is down below. hywel griffith, bbc news, sydney. one of the bbc‘s longest running programmes, crimewatch, is being axed after more than three decades. the show, which makes public appeals about unsolved crimes, was relaunched last year withjeremy vine and tina daheley as its presenters. adina campbell reports. for more than three decades crimewatch has been one of the bbc‘s most high—profile programmes. the crime solving show has helped

uncover some of the country's most notorious offences, with some of the bbc‘s biggest names — including jill dando, who was murdered in 1999, becoming a crimewatch appeal. for all of us here it can be gruelling coping with crimes against victims who are strangers. it has been almost unbearable dealing with jill's death. at its peak 1a million of us tuned in to watch the mugshots and reconstruction films, but with an average of 3 million this year, the falling figures are thought to be behind the show being dropped. nick ross presented the very first episode back in 1984. i think it's going to be very difficult to do appeals with a small daytime audience. i think there's a lot of good you can do, but i don't think the idea of solving major crimes — it's not feasible given the small audience you're going to get, a relatively small audience. some of the show‘s most shocking cases include the murder of the toddlerjames bulger in 1993.

the child's killers were seen on this cctv footage. and the murder of schoolgirl sarah payne was also solved in 2001, after police received hundreds of calls following a crimewatch appeal. it's been an invaluable tool, for both the police and the public. for the public to give information to the police, and for the police to act on that information. crimewatch isn't going completely, though. it will continue on the daytime sister edition, crimewatch roadshow. in a statement, the bbc said: it's incredibly proud of crimewatch and the great work it's done over the years as well as the crimewatch road show. and it went on: the move will create