tonight at 10pm: prices are rising at a faster rate than at any time in the past five years, adding to the pressure on household budgets. higher transport and food costs have helped drive inflation up to 3%, and the bank of england says it's likely to go higher still. we expect that inflation will peak in an around the october/november figures, so peaking, potentially, above the 3% level. the cost of living is rising faster than wages for millions of workers, but the incomes of pensioners will be protected. i think it's fairer than what some people are getting, so i wouldn't complain. things are getting more expensive in the shops, rents are going up. and in a crucial week for the brexit talks, an international think—tank says stopping brexit would give a major boost to the uk economy. we'll be analysing the latest figures and asking what they tell us about the prospects for the economy in the months ahead. also tonight...

raqqa, the syrian city once claimed as the capital of so—called islamic state, has fallen to a kurdish and arab alliance. the head of mi5 says there are 3,000 individuals linked to extremism in the uk. he says the service is facing an intense challenge. in china, they're getting ready for the biggest event in the the communist party calendar, the national congress, as the president tightens his grip on power. and, we'll be talking to this year's winner of the man booker prize — announced this evening. coming up in sportsday on bbc news: could tottenham spring a surprise in spain against the holders real madrid? one of three english sides in champions league action tonight. good evening.

prices are rising at a faster rate than at any time in the past five years, according to the latest official data. inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, rose to 3% last month, driven up by increases in transport and food prices. the cost of living is rising faster than wages for millions of workers, but the state pension is now set to increase by a minimum of 3% next year. the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, says an interest rate rise may be necessary in the coming months, as our economics editor kamal ahmed reports. running almost to standstill. as prices have gone up, our wages have remained stagnant, making that incomes squeeze just that little bit harsher. over the last year, inflation has risen above the increase in our wages. making ends meet is becoming harder. the basics that i get all the time are going up, sort of 20p, 30p here and there,

that affects my food shop every single week and it does make a big difference to what i can get. but higher inflation is not as hard work for everyone. this month's figure is used to set the rise in state pensions next year and pensioners will see weekly payments increase by around £5. well, i think it's fairer than what some people are getting, so i wouldn't complain because i know nurses etc get nothing like that rise. the trouble is they give it in one hand and take it out in the other, so you don't really gain much. mark carney, the governor of the bank of england, told mps that prices were likely to rise further, driven by the fall in the value of the pound. we had signalled in fact prior to the referendum that we felt that the event of the vote to leave, one of the adjustment mechanisms would be through sterling. and this is a quote, we expected sterling to fall sharply, it did. that passes through to prices.

he said that interest rates might rise next month, but with economic growth weak, it is a finely balanced judgment. in the spotlight, philip hammond, who insisted the economy was strong despite brexit uncertainty. there is great potential to exploit the underlying strengths of the uk economy and boosting productivity is the way to turn those strengths into real wage growth. here at the treasury, and the chancellor has a problem. 0n the one side, those policies that are locked in, like pension increases. 0n the other, a lack of economic growth, stagnant wages and the benefits freeze, which are leaving the young worse off. the challenge for the chancellor, what can he do in the budget next month to bridge that generational divide? well, it's eminently sensible to uprate benefits and the state pension by some kind of cost of living index, whether that's inflation or earnings, but it's definitely not fair to uprate part of the population's benefits and not the other half.

that's going to drive a wedge between the two groups. the road will be tough ahead. the public sector pay cap, stagnant wages, pressure will grow on the chancellor to act to boost incomes. that budget next month, expect new policies to strengthen education and skills and support young people. kamal ahmed, bbc news. weaker growth, poor productivity, and huge imbalances between the regions — these are some of the features highlighted by the 0ecd, the intergovernmental economic organisation, in its latest report. it's predicting that growth will slow to just 1% next year, because of the ongoing uncertainty around the brexit process. and it then suggests that britain's economic prospects would improve if brexit didn't happen. 0ur deputy political editor john pienaar reports. something, someone‘s got to break the deadlock, but who? the brexit secretary is refusing to promise upfront the cash that brussels wants. borisjohnson is toughest of all, but this is a risky game. an international think—tank

is warning a hard brexit with no deal could harm britain badly, and uncertainty could hinder the economy ahead of any outcome. there is a bit of a... a bit of a bumpy road. it will be crucial that the uk and the eu maintain the closest economic relationship possible. in its latest survey, the 0ecd says the no deal brexit could mean... the report even suggests giving voters another referendum and stopping brexit might significantly help the economy. neither the government or its main opponents support that idea. reporter: are you frustrated by the lack of progress with the eu, gents? 0ne cabinet brexiteer says the 0ecd accept the economy's growing despite uncertainty.

he's not too worried, though, about getting a brexit deal at all. no need to fear coming out with no deal, that's the essence of what you're saying? we don't need to fear it. leaving without a deal will not be the armageddon that some people project and leaving with a deal will give us a slightly better growth rate. and i think that we need to concentrate on the realities, get rid of the hyperbole around the debate and focus on the fact that if we can get a good agreement with the eu, both britain and the eu will be better off for it. the speaker: sir keir starmer. but in the commons, concern crosses party lines. 0nly fa ntasists and fanatics talk up no deal. no deal is not good for the uk. no deal is not good for the eu. by their vote onjune 8th, the british people did not give this government any mandate for no deal. the government says it wants a deal, but: if we did not prepare for all outcomes, we leave ourselves exposed to an impossible negotiation. so hours, days, months of brinkmanship still ahead,

while the time remaining before brexit passes all too quickly. and the longer the deadlock goes on, the more likely it seems britain could leave the eu without a deal. ministers say the economy is growing and it will be ok in the end, yet those worries about the economy won't go away and now the cost of living is spiking just as the chancellor is looking for ways in his budget to ease the pressure on himself and the government. the chancellor has run out of spare money and where brexit is concerned, the government is running out of time. john pienaar, our deputy political editor at westminster. in syria, militia backed by the us say they have recaptured the entire city of raqqa in syria — the self—styled capital of so—called islamic state. an alliance of kurdish and arab fighters have battled for more than four months to retake control of the city, which was seized by is in 2014. two years ago, is controlled a large area across iraq and syria, but now they only hold a handful

of towns on the syrian—iraqi border. 0ur middle east correspondent quentin sommerville has the latest. at the heart of raqqa, they're giddy with victory. the syrian democratic forces controlled the city that the so—called islamic state hailed as its capital. three years ago, is did victory laps here. paradise circle, it's called, and here they beheaded people. their hatred crossed continents. but their caliphate is now in ruins and they're on the run. a new flag flies in raqqa today. it was arab and kurdish fighters, men and women, who did a jig, celebrating the islamic state's retreat. this commander told the bbc is are no longer in control anywhere in the city, but we will continue to patrol and keep a look out.

the sdf fought in sandals and the most basic of weapons but they had a killer advantage. coalition air power. that helped drive is out, but it also emptied the city of a quarter of a million people. hundreds of civilians may have died in the western bombardment. the battle to free the city spared no one. as we witnessed. in its final months, the fighting here reached a new intensity. younus 0mar and his family, though, survived. they've onlyjust managed to escape. is used them and thousands of others as human shields. translation: my brother was shot four times but allah is stronger than them. translation: it was horror, i tried to leave twice but i couldn't because is militants were shooting at me. they said you are

going to the infidels. but the final victory here was delivered not in a gun battle but in a bus ride. here, is fighters are seen leaving one of the last holdouts, the national hospital. they were guaranteed safe passage as part of a peace deal. what's left of raqqa can barely be called a city. and still, dangers remain. the islamic state's foreign fighters here vanished. some may be hiding in these ruins. their leadership have already fled. the islamic state group may have abandoned their capital but they haven't abandoned their cause, so the fight against is goes on. this is an important moment where perhaps for the first time we can see a future in the middle east without the islamic state. we know that is brought chaos and destruction, we have seen that in raqqa but they also brought something else to the region, unity. they united against that common

enemy, arabs turks and kurds altogether fighting against is, trying to bring about their defeat. that common enemy is now proceeding and already we are seeing those old middle east fault lines, in iraq in baghdad, those fault lines resurfacing. and the reality may be that because the conditions which brought about is still exist, that the middle east isn't much different once they've gone and that those old blood and that is well quickly resurface, even when is is defeated. quentin sommerville in beirut for us tonight. the head of the security service mi5, andrew parker, has told the bbc that 800 british jihadists have gone to fight for so—called islamic state in syria and iraq. in a rare interview, mr parker said britain faced the highest rate of terrorist attacks in the past 30 years, with some plots being hatched within days. some 3,000 extremists are currently being investigated. mr parker spoke to our security correspondent, frank gardner. four terrorist attacks in britain,

inspired by so—called islamic state, in the space of six months. most of the attackers were already known to mi5, the security service. today, its director general addressed journalists on the extent of the current threat. we've seen a dramatic up shift in threat this year. it's at the highest tempo i've seen in my 34—year career. i asked him why mi5 was unable to stop those attacks by known extremists. the likelihood is that sometimes attacks can happen, we've seen that. i've also said the likelihood is that when an attack happens, it may be done by somebody that we know or have known at some point in the past. were that not so, it would mean that we were looking completely in the wrong place. when three men attacked people with a van and knives in southwark in june, it turned out their ring leader was this man,

khuram butt, a well—known extremist already on mi5‘s radar. what's the point of surveillance if someone is free to do that? one of the main challenges we've got is that we only ever have fragments of information. we have to try to assemble a picture of what might happen based on those fragments. sometimes i've talked about today pinpricks of light in an otherwise dark canvas. we have to make professional judgments about where to commit resource, based on the best knowledge we've got each day, against that whole range of extremists. mi5‘s list of 3,000 extremists includes returnees, jihadis coming back from the conflict zone. i asked andrew parker if he knew where they are now and what they're doing. so of that, over 800 people who have gone to syria and iraq, a proportion of them are back in the uk from several years ago, having given up on the fighting and come back

for different reasons. you're monitoring them? they are part of that 3,000 number i spoke about where they're sifted and assessed on an individual basis for risk and we apply intelligence coverage and police coverage accordingly. mi5 says its director general cannot be 100% perfect, a total of five terrorist attacks have got through this year against 20 stopped over four years. the uk, he says, will face down this challenging threat. frank gardner, bbc news. a man suffering from paranoid schizophrenia has been convicted of murdering a kurdish refugee. jeffrey barry stabbed kamil ahmad to death at a home for vulnerable people in bristol where they both lived. it happened hours after barry had been released from a psychiatric hospital. mr ahmad's family say his death could and should

have been prevented. 0ur correspondent, jon kay, reports. i.00am, and jeffrey barry heads from his flat to kamil ahmad's bedsit, a kitchen knife in his waistband. after knocking on the door, he stabs the kurdish refugee more than 25 times and then mutilates his body. that's like a black cloud in my life. kamil‘s brother believes the attack could and should have been prevented, in a country they came to for protection. he came here to be safe, to just live a normal life. but why, how come he get this? why that happened and how that happened? jeffrey barry had a long history of severe psychiatric problems, including episodes of paranoid schizophrenia. this is the supported living accommodation in bristol where the two men were living and six weeks before the attack, jeffrey barry told staff here that he wanted to kill

someone. that he wanted to be notorious, and he said kamilahmad was top of his list. he'd left a note saying he was plan to kill kamil, along with everybody else on the street. in the weeks before the attack, barry was sectioned, but he was released from this hospital by a mental health tribunal against the advice of a psychiatrist, and within hours he'd killed the refugee. i've just killed kamil. he called 999 and said he'd warned mental health professionals. i'd warned them, the crisis team. you've spoken to the crisis team? yeah, they ignored me. they ignored you? yeah. barry told the court he was guilty of manslaughter on the grounds of diminished responsibility, but the jury unanimously convicted him of murder. kamil‘s family believe he would still be alive if he'd been warned that barry was going back to the house and if staff had been given time to come up with a plan.

i'm very angry. his brother says the authorities must reflect on this case. i hope they'll learn, you know, what's happened to my brother, you know. it's not happening to anybody else, again, you know. they can do something about it beforehand, and they don't do it. avon and wiltshire mental health partnership say they've now improved the way that they work with other agencies. a review will be published next year. jon kay, bbc news, bristol. the chinese communist party is all set for one of its biggest displays of power, the national congress, which is held only twice every decade. the proceedings are expected to tighten the formidable control of president xijinping as he heads for a second term in office. he's led a rather ruthless campaign to exert even more discipline among the 90 million members of the communist party, the people who support and enforce many of his policies.

the congress will provide vital clues about the future direction of the country as our china editor, carrie gracie, now explains. communist pilgrims swear to protect the party's secrets and to sacrifice everything for the party. they call this "red tourism", and in xijinping's china, it's an attempt to restore discipline after decades of party bosses getting rich on the public purse. yan'an is the cradle of chairman mao's revolution and some visitors even get into i930s dress. communists call this a holy place, which inspires them to live by a higher code. translation: being a good party member means discipline, behaving better than ordinary people. five years ago, the public felt officials were getting rich, but since the corruption crackdown they have more faith.

the party claims that only it can make china a great power. communist leader xi jinping has put his country on an ideological war footing. he's purged generals who were selling promotions. his message to party and troops — don'tjoin up to make yourself rich, but to make china rich and strong. the message to the public isjust as firm. to mark the communist party congress, beijing is awash with ideological slogans. but china now has more internet users than the us and europe combined. most of them on a mobile phone, and for this generation the pitch is slicker. it portrays party comrades as dedicated public servants, and for every positive message about chinese communism,

there's a negative one about western democracy. "their slogans are loud, their lies are beautiful", says this film released on social media. it says many countries are now the victims of western lies about freedom. a red flag limousine, symbol of national pride since the days of chairman mao — long neglected for foreign models, but red brands are on the move again. under communist rule, china has become an economic superpower, but its growth is now slowing and its citizens are only middle income in world ranking. every other country that's made it to the rich club has

gone democratic first, believing that a sophisticated modern economy needs freedom of expression. but here, the one—party state intends to make history its own way, and that means keeping tight political control. critics say china can't have it both ways — the information controlled to protect one—party rule and an advanced economy. but in this southern city, innovators are connecting know—how and money. these two are from farming families, building a driverless crop sprayer. 0oops, not quite there yet. the dream of a tech empire demands sacrifices. translation: i'm spending my own savings, money that i saved up to get married. young entrepreneurs are betting that china's strengths, its giant market and manufacturing base, will outweigh its weaknesses. what about the government's control of information, the internet?

how much do those controls act as a brake, hamper innovation? i think people come to china or innovating in china is because of the market and the supply here. it is very less about information, ourfreedom. the weaknesses of this one—party state are hidden behind a facade of unity and discipline. a determined strongman now commands a daunting mix of hard and soft power. the party's message to the public — leave politics to us, and we will deliver you a superpower. carrie gracie, bbc news, beijing. the son of a maltese journalist, who was killed in a car bomb yesterday, has blamed a "culture of impunity" for his mother's death. daphne galizia was an investigative reporter who wrote a widely—read blog focusing on corruption.

thousands of people attended a vigil in the capital last night. 0ur correspondent, daniel sandford, has this report. the twisted burned—out chassis of daphne caruana galizia's peugeot 108 hire car, in the field where malta's most influential investigative journalist was murdered — her body blown clean out of the vehicle by a huge explosion, ending her career of exposing political corruption and organised crime. "i saw a small explosion coming from the car and i panicked", said frank sant, who saw the whole thing. "a few seconds later, there was another larger explosion. the car skidded down the hill at high speed, full of fire, and into the field." daphne caruana galizia made her name writing stories in newspapers and then on her blog that were often deeply embarrassing for those in power in malta, particularly the labour party who are currently in government. today, her son matthew said the government had been negligent

in failing to protect his mother. "this was no ordinary murder and it was not tragic", he wrote. "tragic is someone being run over by a bus. we're a people at war against the state and organised crime, which have become indistinguishable. this is where we are, a mafia state." the maltese prime ministerjoseph muscat had to call an election this year because of allegations about his wife's offshore money which daphne caruana galizia extracted from the panama papers leak, but he has promised an unbiased investigation. translation: my duty is to make surejustice is done, and i won't have a moment's rest until that happens. the fbi has been asked to help investigate the car bomb, but trust here is shaken after one maltese police officer appeared to celebrate the killing. making sure there is confidence in

this inquiry will be very important because as well as the raw grief from daphne caruana galizia's family and friend friends there is this deep concern that those who she has criticised over the years may somehow be involved in overseeing the investigation into her murder. huw. daniel, many thanks. daniel sa ndford huw. daniel, many thanks. daniel sandford there with the latest on that case for us in malta. tens of thousands of people are experiencing long delays, sometimes lasting years, for non—emergency surgery in northern ireland. that's far higher than in other parts of the uk. figures seen by the bbc show how some patients are waiting three years just to see a consultant. at one health trust the minimum wait is 155 weeks — that's almost three years — for those with spinal problems. at the same trust, it could take up to 127 weeks — two—and—a—half years — to see a specialist about a shoulder or wrist problem.

health chiefs admit urgent reform is needed to get more patients treated in the community. 0ur health editor, hugh pym, sent this report from belfast. # this house don't feel like home any more # you say you've gone to set me free #. megan loves dancing. # words are to spare, your clothes on the floor #. it's just her life at the minute. she just wants to dance. # clouds and the weather, it changes #. but at the minute she needs to get this surgery to help her. this is megan's spine, it's what's known as severe curvature. she's in pain and has breathing problems, she needs an operation and quickly. it's two metal rods that go down the spine. but her mother karen was told she'd have to wait a year or more. you could see the consultant was absolutely gutted and you could see that it was hurting him by saying a year, but it's out of his control.

the nhs is broken. we're just standing still and waiting lists are just increasing month on month, year on year, and it's all of our families who are sitting on those waiting lists. i feel very strongly about the nhs. 0ne gp told me she sometimes had to deliver a bleak message to her patients. you're going to have to wait and it may be several months, it may be into 52 weeks, 80 weeks or beyond. and it's very difficult to then turn that conversation to, you may have to use — and these are our elderly folk — you may have to use your life savings to actually improve your quality of life. the longer term solution has to be in the transformation of how we deliver health and social care services. some people are waiting around three years just to see a consultant, surely that's not acceptable? i agree, that is absolutely unacceptable and that's why it clearly illustrates the need for reform. there are about 35,000 more surgical

procedures required than the health service currently has capacity for. without the additional funding to see those patients or have them treated in different ways, it is regrettably inevitable that waiting times will increase to the position they're now at. a&e often has to soak up the pressure when people who've endured long waits for non—emergency treatment see their condition worsen. that adds to the strain. hospitals like the royal victoria say they've streamlined the process to get more patients through. they politicians are very much still wedded to parish pump politics. but are northern ireland's politics doing the nhs no favours? in the last nine months, we've had no government in northern ireland, we're in a political vacuum. the system reverts to keeping the show on the road and any ideas around transformation or change are simply mothballed. # words are to spare, your clothes on the floor #.

i've paid taxes, i've paid national insurance, so why can't i get the treatment that she deserves? # clouds and the weather, it changes #. karen and megan aren't thinking about politics, they desperately want the operation to happen. they're now raising money to go private because the nhs can't deliver. hugh pym, bbc news, belfast. at the guildhall, in the city of london, within the past hour the winner of this year's man booker literary prize has been announced. the american novelist george saunders. 0ur arts editor, will gompertz, is at guildhall with the winner. good evening. george saunders won for this book, lincoln in the bardo. it