he's expected to be accused of giving too much power to his wife, grace, and of failing to respect the constitution. the country's former vice president is expected to return to the country soon. the human rights group amnesty international has described the situation of rohingya muslims in myanmar‘s rakhine state as a form of apartheid. in a new reportjust released, amnesty calls their treatment a crime against humanity — and says the authorities need to eliminate discrimination. another american media personality, charlie rose, has been suspended by his television networks over allegations of sexual harassment. mr rose has apologised for what he said was "inappropriate behaviour," but added that he didn't believe all the allegations against him were accurate. now on bbc news... hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur.

after 37 years in power, maybe it isn't surprising that robert mugabe cannot accept zimba bwe‘s new reality. but no amount of playing for time will save his presidency now. the mugabe era is over. the question is what comes next? will it be a continuation of zanu—pf‘s oppresive rule overseen by mugabe's former cronies? or will the country's politics open up in new and unpredictable ways? well, my guest is ibbo mandaza, former government official turned academic analyst. will zimba bwe‘s current drama end well? ibbo mandaza, in johannesburg, welcome to hardtalk. thank you, stephen. ijust referred to this compelling drama playing out in harare. you've obviouslyjust come from harare in the last few hours to talk to me. is it clear to you that there can only be one ending, that robert mugabe will be gone within days?

i don't know about days, but certainly it is the endgame, except now we have a serious stand—off between him and his party. is it a serious stand—off? i think it is. it's embroiled in a constitutional crisis, and it appears to me that mugabe seems to have the upper hand on the constitutional and legal side. it's quite obvious he has some of the best legal minds around him. clearly, his speech last night had very cogent arguments from a legal point of view, not to mention the fact that, from the very outset, the military insisted that it was not a coup, although it is a coup in my view, but more importantly, insisted he is the head of state and their commander—in—chief,

and that is really the... yes. it is very hard to figure out precisely the relationship between the senior military command and robert mugabe. because there they all were in that bizarre shot, the military chief sitting next to mugabe as he made the address to the nation. sceptics think that perhaps this is all being orchestrated and that the army command is quite happy for robert mugabe to go through the impeachment process because it legitimises his removal, it sort of puts a veil of constitutionality over the whole thing. do you think that may be true? yes, i think so. but also, it appears to me the events leading to the coup, or incomplete coup, were sparked by fear by the generals that they would be charged with treason. and so it appears to me the first act was to pre—empt the head of state doing what he intended to do.

it appears to me they didn't have a clear plan as to the outcome of the intervention. they thought this would be a few days, mugabe would resign. well, i think he has surprised them, clearly. they don't know what to do now. let's talk about the potential for destabilisation, for unrest, for violence. some people are saying this is a fragile moment for zimbabwe. but, again, it's hard to see where the violence would come from, because the only person it seems who is really determined to defend robert mugabe's rights and interests is robert mugabe himself. he doesn't seem to have certainly any street presence supporting his claim to stay in the job. well, i think there are various constraining factors for the military, but you are right, there is a danger that you could have rogue elements within the military, within the whole veterans‘ association, who would want to push, as appears to be the case, mugabe to resign, and if need be, even attack is person, break into his "blue roof," so called, there is a risk, clearly that this might descend into a violent confrontation. let me talk about what chris is saying, the head of the veterans‘ association. this is a few hours ago. "we are going to organise a sit—in.

we are not going to leave harare until this guy, robert mugabe, is gone." mugabe has lost his marbles." would you worry if there is a sit—in around the so—called blue roof, his residence? as far as the events on saturday, the army did not allow the crowd near the area, let alone the blue roof. it's clear that the military are in charge of the whole process so far, including the rally itself, in terms of containing, controlling, and directing it. i think the military will want to play it constitutional, legal, safe, as far as possible, except, if the stand—off is extended, as appears to be the case, then they might resort to other means. i think they want him to resign and he is refusing to resign.

you have long experience inside the government as one of the top civil servants before you went into academia and political commentary. i just wonder, when we're talking about the constitution and the impeachment process, just how important and how durable and resilient is the zimbabwean constitution, because the impression is that, over many years, mugabe has ridden roughshod over. but is it still part of the political process to stick to the constitution? yes, except where it is done so expediently and conveniently. in general, there is a very high disdain for constitutionalism, let alone constitutions, in zimbabwe, even in the party itself. you can see we have a very messy, untidy process. right now, the committee met yesterday and voted to get robert mugabe and everyone else out. and his speech last night was to render that all illegal,

because he is saying he is still in charge of the party. you have a situation where the interpretation of the constitution is left to expedient subscription thereof. i asked you at the beginning if there is any doubt about the outcome and i was then thinking about robert mugabe's removal and you indicated it may take longer than we think. but robert mugabe is ultimately going to have to go. is there any doubt in your mind that the successor, as zanu—pf will want it be, the vice president, briefly deposed but now back, emmerson mnangagwa? is that, in your opinion, definitely going to be the outcome, he will succeed? if the coup succeeds, yes, he will be in. if the coup ends as they intend it

to end, with robert mugabe resigning, it will have been successful as a coup. but if, as appears to be happening, there is a resort to constitutional arguments and, more important, the intervention of south african... sadc, it appears that they may find a solution, such as a governor of national unity, we, our group, the platform for concerned citizens, have been proposing since last august, when we saw this coming, a national transitional authority, a non—partisan authority of zimbabweans, who would take charge of the state for two years during which time there would be political and economical reforms. but of course, that is a hard sell from the very beginning because you have contending factors, both within zanu pf itself

and in the larger polity. so, your message is that mnangagwa taking over would be bad for zimbabwe? it would be bad in the sense that one faction in a factional fight would be seen to be taking over in a coup. as far as i am concerned, the solution is to transcend the zanu pf faction, to transcend it, either to find someone within zanu pf itself who was above the factions, and it is difficult to find such a person, or a neutralfactor altogether, leading a transitional authority or a transitional government. but mr mandaza, is it not true that you are part of the factionalism? because, for a long time, you were associated as a loyalist of the joyce maduro faction. you have had a stake in the game yourself. that's why mr mnangagwa over years

has expressed his dislike for you, because he sees you as someone who has always favoured his opponents. well, it may be that i have had a family relationship with the maduros, both in her late husband and herself. and, yes, i felt as a zimbabwean citizen thatjoyce maduro was shortchanged in 2014 when these purges began. and she had been elected in 200a. she was a vice president in every sense of the word. and then, in 2014, the whole vice president and nine provincial chairpersons were rejected. but my point is not so much aboutjoyce maduru and what happened to her, we interviewed her on this programme, and, frankly, she does not amount to much support these days. it is your message about factionalism. it is interesting to see how anybody in zimbabwe today ca have any hope

that factionalism won't continue. it will be a very dominant force. mr mnangagwa and his associates, including the head of the military, are clearly people who want to keep power closely in the hands of those, you know, one could perhaps say cronies, old cronies of robert mugabe going all the way back in zanu pf. it is hard to see how that will not happen. if you're looking for a solution mediate those differences, that is where some of us come in as concerned citizens, and that is where sadc should come in. in retrospect, in hindsight, it is clear, as you are correct in your characterisation, that the military has always been central right through from the ceasefire in 1980 with rex maduro first of all and on and on. it is true the military has been central. some of us as analysts have been

confused and lost the plot in thinking that mugabe had taken control of the military. clearly, he did not. this is becoming self—evident. and you are right... let me quote you... it is interesting what you are saying. the top branch of the military have been extremely influential. let's not forget that mr mnangagwa, going way back, was minister of state security, he ran the intelligence operations as part of his ministerial duties, very involved in campaigns. he has a long record. and this is what one western diplomat said recently, he said, you know, "if mnangagwa takes over, this is far from being a brave new dawn for zimbabwe. mnangagwa is cut from the same cloth as mugabe." would you agree with that?

clearly, yes. his base at the moment is the military. chuenga is the most powerful person at the moment. and really, it appears to be that the military wanted a civilian face for their rule, and emmerson mnangagwa has been their chosen one. it is difficult to make a distinction between the mugabe regime and the mugabe era and emmerson mnangagwa in the military. they are one and the same. what this is, is a factional fight within zanu pf itself. which party is conflated with the state, really. going back to instability, i want to quote to you one other person who has been out on the streets, linda, she's an activist, founder of the zimbabwean women in politics alliance, and she said, this is quite powerful stuff, she said "all my life i have waited all her life for mugabe to stand down, but now i am worried

because of the way it was done and who might take over. the military is stepping in to resolve the factional fight and it has nothing to do with reforming the country." you seem to be echoing that very bleak sentiment. i agree entirely with those sentiments. i agree entirely. but we have to be realistic, we have to be political and take into account the reality and see how we can work out of it to a more positive scenario. to be specific, what are you going to do? well, it is not me. what i will do, it is a question of us trying to leverage the process, the intervention, and the need to mediate... you keep talking about sadc. we know the south african government has taken a mild position, asking everybody to please focus on following the zimbabwean constitution. i can quote you the

president of zambia, edgar lungu, who has actually said that in his view, the military takeover reflects "intervention and meddling by western countries." he says westerners are trying to "spearhead regime change," not just in zimbabwe, but in zambia, south africa and malawi as well, and "we won't let it happen." so i'm not sure that african neighbours are of a mind to push the reform agenda. it doesn't sound as though they are. some of them sound like they are quite tempted to defend mugabe. precisely. i think basically, a successful coup in zimbabwe would send the wrong message across the region. the differences between the regimes in the region are those of degree, rather than kind. you are talking about sadc, sadc is normally lame but i think sadc has never been faced with a similar situation to this.

it will be interesting to see what sadc does tomorrow. i agree this will be based on self—interest in parts of sadc and the south african state, rather than any concentration such as that which linda was referring to. what about the international community more widely? i am intrigued by the notion which i have read in some quarters which says that actually, the key player in this is not any western country, the united states anybody else. it is china. there is talk of a key meeting involving mr mnangagwa and mr chiwenga, the head of the military, actually in beijing. and that the chinese signed off on the move against mugabe because china of course has vast economic interest in zimbabwe. is china a big player, do you think? yes, but i also know china as one

who tries not to interfere in internal politics, except in its own neighbourhood. so i think that is mere speculation. there is no evidence to that effect. nor is there evidence that western countries have been directly involved. there has always been speculation, of course, unconfirmed, that emmerson mnangagwa and in this case, this military coup, would have the support of the british or the british intelligence services. again, that is speculation. so what's next, in your view? i imagine when we stop talking you will be going very soon back home to harare, and you are somebody who constantly speaks out for fundamental transformation in zimbabwe, getting away from what you call the factionalism, opening up of politics, bringing in a new generation, making the country more genuinely free and democratic. how on earth, given the nature of our conversation, do you believe you can play a role in that

happening? well, i am grateful that you give us the opportunity of this important interview with a very influential programme like hardtalk. .. well, that is very flattering, but nonetheless, it is just words. long after you leave the studio you have to go home and figure out how to change the situation on the ground. yes, i cannot do it alone. we're working many other people. i made reference to the pcc, the platform for concerned citizens. we have submitted a public document to be sadc secretariat and to the troika. we did that through the south african government this afternoon. so there are many efforts at home. there is representation by the churches. there is a prominent clergyman who has been involved in the negotiations between mugabe's residence and the military head office. so there is a lot of stuff happening on the ground but we're hoping that the sadc intervention, but also the international

community, i know that the western ambassadors met yesterday to discuss the zimbabwe situation, and i also know that they are recommending a government of national unity. which involves everybody, the other political parties as well. i think they were all shocked yesterday with the statements which suggested that this was an internal issue of zanu—pf. i think the solution is to have them transcend the zanu—pf factionalism and have a national dialogue and national process which includes everybody, at least as a transitional authority, towards elections one or two years hence. that is interesting. yet a signal failure of you to mention mr tsvangirai and the movement for democratic change, which has long been the leading opposition party,

suggests to me that you do not really feel they could be serious agents of change. maybe i am misleading you. do you think mr tsvangirai has an important role to play? on the contrary, i think all parties must be involved, including mr tsvangirai. you cannot ignore mr tsvangirai in any process in zimbabwe, not least because he was shortchanged in 2008. it is common knowledge now that morgan tsvangirai won the election in 2008. and it was this time mr mnangagwa and general chiwenga who took over, and one would say it was a coup actually, in 2008, in the form of the manipulation of the results, the subsequent run—off, and how mr mugabe stayed in power. so morgan tsvangirai can not be ignored, not at all, either as a person or in terms of his party. we have talked, really, politics in this interview. let's end by thinking

about something else: justice. do you think there is any possibility that mugabe and people very close to him might be brought to face justice for some of the things that happened under his command, his rule of zimbabwe? i am thinking in particular of the mass killings that we know happened to the ndebele in the early 1980s. is justice part of this, or not? well, one would hope for some kind of truth and reconciliation such as we have in south africa. but if it were to be revenge, that would escalate things out of hand. the human rights factor must be taken into account. yes, mugabe, and those persons, mnangagwa and chiwenga have much to answer for, for the violence over the last 30 years, and the periods which were punctuated by violence, not only them,

but the gukurahundi massacre of the earlier era which remains a blot on our history. but also subsequent killings at election time. in 2008 some 200 people perished. yes, there will need to be a taking account of all that, and one might even suggest we need to go back to be beginning of the struggle, where there were many killings among ourselves, as zimbabweans. i think a truth and reconciliation commission is something that might help to close the chapter on this sordid history of hours. a final thought, before we end. i was very struck by the joyous scenes, frankly, which i saw from harare, and the mass demonstrations, the people out on the streets on saturday at the weekend in your capital city. are you feeling full of optimism, positivity, and maybe even some joy at the thought of robert mugabe's end right now? or are you actually feeling somewhat alarmed and trepidatious

about the future of your country? they did celebrate four days. prior to that the military were acting on their own. there was not the conventional mass reception of the coup which you have seen in other parts of africa. i think people are beginning to sober up and realise there is something at the heart of this which has to do with the manner in which the system has been run for the last two decades at least. ibbo mandaza, it is a sobering thought to end on. thank you forjoining me on hardtalk from johannesburg. thank you very much, stephen. hello.

for many it was a very mild start to the new week. 16.6 was the high, well above average for this time of year. we stay in the mild air for tuesday and for much of the week. i'm sure you've noticed an area of low pressure and a frontal system, which means rain. at eight o'clock in the morning, that rain is draped across scotland and likely to keep falling here through much of the day, just clear of northern ireland. rain returning here later in the morning. it could be a tricky rush hour, particularly through the central belt, heavy and persistent rain. not as cold as it has been, milder air nudging north. that rain will be just about clear of northern england, but certainly down underfoot, with mist and murk and low cloud. in much of england and wales,

lots of cloud, but aside from the odd patch of drizzle it will be mainly dry and mild. temperatures around 11 or 12. through england and wales, through the day, that cloud will try to thin and break, especially to the lee of high ground. so there could be a bit of brightness. the rain keeps falling over scotland and later in the day we see another spell of rain in northern england, and northern wales. to the south and east of that, mainly dry. the best of any brightness will be here. mild, with high temperatures of around 1a or 13 celsius. still quite cool in scotland. in the evening, more rain to come through scotland, slowly pulling away, then a different spell of rain pushing east across england and wales and becoming more persistent across north—west england and north wales as we head

through the early hours of wednesday morning. the winds will be strengthening as well, likely to touch gale force along the western and southern coasts. a mild night as we go into wednesday. a much windier day. chance of gales in some places. persistent rain across northern parts of wales, northern ireland, and perhaps stretching up to southern parts of scotland. to the south and east of this, mainly dry, with the best of any brightness. we could well see 15 celsius, butjust 8 in the far north of scotland. lots of isobars through wednesday night and into thursday. strong winds. this front will sweep these, but that will bring heavy rain for a time. how quickly it clears from the south—east of england is a bit open to doubt at the moment. behind it we start to lose some of the milder air and something colderjust starting to dig back in. a sign of things to come by the weekend. on thursday we could see some snow once again over the mountains of scotland. much colder further north.

this is the briefing. i'm david eades. our top story: angela merkel‘s political future hangs in the balance — could germany have another election? in a new report, amnesty international says myanmar‘s rohingya muslims live under a form of apartheid. president mugabe's could be impeached later on tuesday — accused of letting his wife take too much power in zimbabwe. the us government has filed a lawsuit to try to stop the multi—billion dollar takeover by the american telecoms giant at&t of the media group, time warner. and later in the business briefing i'll be speaking to 0liver clark, senior reporter at flightglobal, about easyjet's full year results.