tonight at ten, a warning that british workers face a second decade without a rise in average earnings. experts say the continuing pressure on wages is astonishing, and yesterday's budget forecasts are described as grim. it looks like we've got at least another five years to go before we get anywhere near to having earnings back where they were in 2008. that is wholly unprecedented. but the government says it's confident it can defy the gloomy forecasts, claiming the budget has set britain on the right path. the chancellor did a very good job yesterday. what the chancellor was doing was setting out how we will ensure we have an economy fit for the future. we'll be looking at the prospect of a second decade without pay growth, and at the persistent problem of low productivity. also tonight... hundreds of thousands of rohingya muslim refugees might be able to return home after a deal is signed by bangladesh and myanmar. in argentina, families get reports of an explosion on a submarine

which went missing over a week ago. an exclusive look inside the saudi hotel where prominent figures continue to be held as part of a campaign against corruption. as far as detention centres go, this one is beyond compare. luxury swimming pool, restaurant, a gym. and we talk to the british actor widely tipped for an oscar for his film portrayal of sir winston churchill. and coming up on sportsday on bbc news, we'll have the latest from the europa league. arsenal top their group despite losing in cologne. good evening.

british workers are facing an unprecedented two decades without any rise in average earnings, according to the leading economic research group, the institue for fiscal studies. it says the forecasts published with yesterday's budget made for pretty grim reading, with government borrowing still going up and austerity continuing. it's predicted that average earnings in 2022 could still be less than they were in 2008. but the chancellor has said he's confident he can defy the gloomy predictions, as our economics editor kamal ahmed reports. it can all seem a little distant. the treasury, the grand office of state. but what it says matters for all of us and that growth downgrade yesterday is likely to leave millions of people worse off. out shopping in basildon, essex, adele and her daughter emily. it's a struggle making ends meet. i mean i've been working years and i haven't had a pay rise at all.

and i now have a child. everything else has gone up. rent‘s gone up, food's gone up, all the other prices, gas, electric. we are constantly getting told this is going up, this is going up, but nothing else is going up with it, so you are literally working to live, that's all you're doing, working to survive every single day. i asked the head of the institute for fiscal studies why that growth downgrade mattered so much. economic forecasts might not sound terribly important, but when they mean that your earnings, you're living standards, are going to be much lower than you expected, then it's time to listen. earnings in the early 2020s will still be below where they were in 2008, making this easily the worst decade and a bit for living standards. notjust in living memory, but a long time before that, too. the prime minister and chancellor visiting a college for training builders. today tory mps were patting philip hammond on the back, saying he had delivered a successful budget. but theresa may knows she has

to convince people like adele that the government is on her side. what the budget was about was about jobs for people up and down the country. it was about ensuring people are in work with that income for theirfamily. that effort to seize the opportunities of the future has to overcome a major hurdle. the living standards squeeze. at the time of the financial crisis, average earnings were £24,500. they fell sharply as the financial crisis bit. and look at how slow the recovery has been. by 2022 people could still be earning less on average than they were ten years ago. that is the big question. why aren't real incomes rising? there are a number of answers to that. firstly, the government of whatever party that over decades have simply failed to invest enough in the real things that matter, like our skills. the financial crisis, which sucked so

much money out of the economy. and the businesses themselves. some of which seem to prefer to rely on cheap labour rather than investing in things like machinery that would make them more efficient and mean they could afford a pay rise for those they employ. tonight, labour supporters gathered in the west midlands and cheered jeremy corbyn as he laid out the case against the government. they racked up more borrowing and more debt, wages are falling, growth is falling, investment is falling. public services are at risk of closing altogether. people have been helped, the tories say, with record employment levels a higher living wage. and tonight the government was putting the finishing touches to the next effort at boosting the economy. the industrial strategy. stand by for that next week.

kamal ahmed, bbc news. the chancellor identified what he called the stubbornly flat level of british productivity as one of the biggest factors behind the gloomy forecasts for economic growth. but philip hammond insisted the government had measures in place to deal with the problem. our business editor simonjack asks why productivity levels in the uk are so poor — and what can be done to improve them. it's the word of the week. maybe the decade. it means the value of work done per worker per hour. if it goes up, the economy grows and so do pay and living standards. when it doesn't, they don't. right now, it isn't. now, when people hear our productivity is low, some people wonder, are workers being accused of being lazy? but it's not really that at all. i could be the best typist in the world, the hardest working person, but there will be a limit to how many letters, for example, i could write. to really get things done, to be more productive, i need one of these.

better equipment and better training is a need recognised by britain's biggest companies. i mean all the data suggest we do have a productivity problem. it has flat lined largely for the last few years. and i think everybody recognises that. and i think both companies and government and, indeed, education in general, we all have a stake in making that, fixing that, making that better. the government's answer has been to get big companies like bt to pay half a percent of their wage bill into an apprenticeship kitty that smaller companies can also use. but the latest figures show it's not working. this time last year 117,000 people started an apprenticeship. at the same time this year, that number was only a8,000. a fall of a whopping 59%. so what's going wrong? the implementation of this policy has been diabolical. the inflexible approach to training, the 10% charge to employers

when they used to have it for free, and then the procurement process for providers. all three of them have caused immense problems. and that is why the numbers have fallen. the problem doesn't seem to be demand from the apprentices themselves. my mum always wanted me to go to university but i always had to tell her that going to university doesn't give you the better, best thing ever. so, like, going university gives you a degree which is really good, however, doing an apprenticeship you get paid, you get better opportunities, learn skills, meet new people. business groups are certain it is an essential part of solving our economic problems. if we're going to tackle the productivity puzzle, we really need to see a massive increase in training, and that means getting people doing apprenticeships in the right areas, the right industries. it's one of the top three issues that our members tell us they want to see solved. the government said today it remains committed to providing 3 million apprenticeships by 2020.

to hit that target, the plan may need a rewrite. simon jack, bbc news. as people consider the impact of the budget, the prime minister will be in brussels tomorrow for meetings with other european leaders, including donald tusk, the president of the european council. 0ur deputy political editor john pienaar is there. the chancellor saying economic confidence will grow when there is more clarity around the brexit process. what is the prospect for that? well, the really big economic challenges, whether it's a slowing economy or nhs funding or public sector pay, they still loom as large as ever. the chancellor has learned to at least put on a smile and sound optimistic while delivering bad news. he's avoided compounding the government's problems with that budget. now that will be some comfort to theresa may because with a disappointing election behind her and brexit still ahead, she has more than enough problems than she can easily cope with. it is a very

crucial points now for brexit. because rushing up in the next few weeks in mid—december there will be an eu summit where eu leaders will decide whether to break the deadlock on the brexit negotiations. if britain can show that it's willing to write a big enough check by way ofa to write a big enough check by way of a divorce settlement, something of a divorce settlement, something of a0 billion or so, and that it has an answer to remodelling and re—managing the borders of northern ireland, then those eu leaders say they will be willing to talk trade. if not, if that does not start to happen at this coming december summit, the whole brexit plan could be seriously delayed and possibly even derailed. the process of building up to that big decision start here in brussels tomorrow. when theresa may meets the eu council president donald tusk that's the sort of board of directors of eu leaders. then there will be more talks and more crucial meetings and much more diplomatic work behind the scenes before the decision is finally taken. but we will, i think, see the decision starting to become clear over the course of the next two crucial weeks or so. many

thanks, john pienaar in brussels. bangladesh and myanmar have signed a deal that could help to repatriate more than 600,000 rohingya muslims who've fled myanmar in recent months. the bangladeshi authorities say displaced people could begin to return within months. but aid agencies say their safety must be guaranteed. my colleague reeta chakrabarti reports from the port of cox's bazar in bangladesh. a mass of humanity has made its home here, a city made up entirely of people who fled. they arrive with stories of being shot at and raped and their children being killed. would they, could they return to myanmar? translation: we won't go back. we were brutally tortured. young men were put in prison and houses were set on fire. rashida huq and her husband lost a son when they escaped.

here, at his grave, rashida breaks down. we saw her with her son two months ago. the 15—year—old had trodden on a landmine laid in myanmar at the border where they cross to bangladesh. two days after these pictures were filmed, he died. then, she told us, she could not bear even to say the word myanmar. here, in the cramped shelter she shares with her husband and six other family members, rashida says she won't return. translation: our hearts were broken in myanmar. what does pain mean? i had two sons injured in myanmar. will we get peace there? if everybody goes back, we will. but our hearts don't tell us to go back. they don't, they don't. but according to the agreement

between bangladesh and myanmar, some of these people could start to return injust two months‘ time. yet there are no details of how their safety will be guaranteed, nor of any international monitoring, making observers cautious. one thing is for sure, for refugees to be able to exercise their fundamental right to return home, the conditions that made them flee in the first place need to be meaningfully addressed. refugees need to be able to decide voluntarily to return in a safe and dignified manner. bangladesh has been under immense strain with this huge influx of refugees, so it's understandably keen to find a dealfor their return. myanmar‘s motives are less clear, but the country will be under the spotlight next week with a visit from the pope. without cast—iron guarantees for the rohingyas' safety, many will have serious doubts about today's announcement. reeta chakrabarti, bbc news, cox's bazar in bangladesh. a brief look at some of the day's

other news stories... jon venables, who was convicted of murdering the liverpool toddler james bulger in 1993, is back in prison while police investigate child abuse images on a computer. he was freed on licence in 2001, after being jailed for life at the age of 10. the former labour minister ivan lewis has been suspended by the party while allegations of inappropriate behaviour are investigated. mr lewis denies any wrongdoing or non—consensual behaviour, but says he's sorry if he has made women who work with him feel awkward. the jury at the trial of an army sergeant accused of trying to murder his wife by tampering with her parachute has been discharged, after failing to reach verdicts. emile cilliers denied all the charges. the court had been sitting for 7 weeks. the crown prosecution service says it will seek a retrial. the european commission has cancelled the uk's turn to host the european capital of culture. dundee, nottingham, leeds,

milton keynes, belfast and londonderry had all already submitted bids to hold the title in 2023. the government says it's deeply disappointed. the commission said it was a concrete consequence of brexit. the argentine navy says it believes there was an explosion close to the last known location of a submarine that went missing over a week ago with aa crew members on board. the blast — described as abnormal and violent — was detected around the time the submarine sent its last signal. britain is part of a huge international search effort that's under way to locate the vessel. our defence correspondent jonathan beale has the latest. it's known as the silent service. but there's been no communication from the sanjuan and her aa crew for more than a week. the search had already reached a critical phase, with fears this submarine would soon be running out of air. now, more worrying news. scientists confirm they've detected an abnormal sound underwater near her last known location.

an argentine navy spokesman said it was a short, single, violent event, consistent with explosion. it's a bitter blow for relatives. just a few days ago they'd been wrongly told there may have been attempts by the submarine to make contact. now they feel betrayed. translation: i feel cheated. they are swines. they manipulated us. translation: we have no more saints to pray to, no more saints to ask. aircraft and ships from more than half a dozen nations have been involved in what is still officially a search and rescue mission, at times in heavy seas. this, the view from the royal navy ship hms protector earlier this week. but so far, nothing. the sanjuan left the southern tip of argentina almost two weeks ago. she was on a 2000—mile journey back

to mar del plata when she reported an electrical failure. her last communication, halfway home, was last wednesday — the same day they have now identified that sound like an explosion. if it was to be an explosion, or an implosion, more correctly, it's very likely to have come from submarine. there's nothing else in that area which could have caused that sort of noise. it now seems unlikely their prayers will be answered. for the families of the aa crew, hopes of a miraculous rescue have all but disappeared. jonathan beale, bbc news. the football association and the players‘ union have launched a major study into the health of 15,000 former professionals as part of an investigation into the long—term risks of heading a football. the study will ask whether professional footballers are more likely to develop brain conditions such as dementia than

the rest of the population. but, as our sports editor dan roan reports, authorities are being criticised for being slow to consider the problem. that's a good ball, a little flick on! it's in the net! heading the ball has been a part of football since the game was invented, but in recent years there's been mounting concern over the danger it could pose to players‘ long—term health. and today the fa announced it‘d finally commissioned a landmark study into links between football and dementia. the expert leading the research telling mejust how significant it is. we‘re going to be as thorough as we can possibly be. we‘re looking at in excess of 15,000 former footballers, and matching them to somewhere around a5,000 population control. so we get a good sense of what their numbers look like against what we would expect from the population. nodding it on. 15 years ago, a coroner ruled that former england strikerjeff astle died aged 59 as a result of industrial disease — dementia caused by repeated

heading had contributed to the cause of death. one of hundreds of players diagnosed with degenerative brain conditions after retirement, astle‘s family have been at the heart of the campaign demanding the sport‘s authorities honour their duty of care to former professionals. the fa have a responsibility across the game in its entirety. the pfa are there for player welfare. but, yes, they‘re doing it, but i still believe they‘ve been cornered into this. they‘ve been cornered into doing the research. it‘s something that‘s not going to go away. former england captain alan shearer, still the premier league‘s leading goal scorer and a player renowned for his heading, highlighted the issue in a recent bbc documentary, undergoing a series of medical tests on his own brain. i‘m pleased that eventually the authorities have listened and are now going to do the research that should have been done years ago. we can‘t look back, unfortunately, we can only look forward now and support willie and his team.

and, hopefully, they will be able to start and get some answers now. today, the fa said it felt compelled to conduct what it vowed would be one of the most comprehensive studies ever into this issue. further proof that it must now address one of the greatest challenges facing its future, both in the professional ranks and at the grass—roots. despite the obvious health benefits for children who play sport, there are now calls for heading to be banned for under 11s until the health risks are better understood. and football‘s not alone. rugby has had to change its rules over the assessment of head injuries. american football‘s concussion crisis, meanwhile, has resulted in a $1 billion settlement after former players sued the nfl over brain disease. in goes the cross, and rose! this has become an issue sport can no longer afford to ignore. dan roan, bbc news, wembley. dozens of prominent saudi figures continue to be held at a luxury hotel in the capital riyadh following their detention earlier this month. they‘re being held after

an anti—corruption drive by the new crown prince, mohammed bin salman. it‘s understood they‘ll be allowed to go if they hand over 70% of their wealth — an overall figure that would amount to hundreds of billions of pounds. our chief international correspondent lyse doucet is the first journalist to be allowed inside the hotel and she sent this report. it contains some flashing images. we drive in under police escort, just past midnight. no—one enters here now without official permission. the world‘s most talked about hotel. riyadh‘s most palatial, most prestigious, now a gilded prison. i‘m taken in by saudi officials and told, don‘t film faces, don‘t record conversations. here in the early hours of the morning, there are still people in the lobby drinking coffee as you‘d find in any of the five star hotels here in the capital. most of the people who have now been forced to stay here are keeping to themselves.

trying to limit any further damage to their reputation. their mobile phones have been taken away from them. but there is a hotline that‘s available to them. they can call their lawyers, family members, even leading members of the companies they‘re still trying to keep running. some of the biggest saudi billionaires are under hotel arrest. prince alwaleed bin talal, luxury hotelier himself. at least 11 princes. miteb bin abdullah headed the elite national guard. his young cousin, mohammad bin salman, is driving this spectacular dragnet. for the last two years building files on alleged corruption, abuses of power, while consolidating his own power. i‘m taken to meet one suspect. he doesn‘t give me his name. he says he spends his time with his lawyer, focusing on his case, i‘m told not to ask about it. but i get a briefing.

senior officials conducting this crackdown say it‘s not a formal investigation yet. they call it a friendly process. but it‘s clearly fraught. we‘re being told that when people were brought here around midnight on november ath, they were understandably angry. some of them thought this would just be a show. and it wouldn‘t last. and then when they realised they were here to stay, they were furious, almost everyone here, 95% i was told, are willing to make a deal to give back what are said to be substantial sums of money in order to get out of here. and, so far, seven people have walked free. i was told they proved their innocence. many saudis welcome an end to the rampant corruption in the kingdom. there are risks, too. the ambitious crown prince risks creating enemies and uncertainty, which could endanger the very stability and reforms he knows his kingdom so badly needs. the crown prince hopes

everyone will be checking out by the end of this year. the longer this ordeal drags on, the more questions will be asked here and abroad about what‘s going on inside. lyse doucet, bbc news, at the ritz—carlton, riyadh. a major clean—up is under way in parts of northern england and north wales which were affected by flooding last night. there were flash floods in llangefni and more than 70 people had to be rescued from their homes near lancaster after nearly two inches of rain fell in 2a hours. roads were closed and rail services were affected. shares in centrica, the company which owns british gas, suffered their biggest ever one—day loss today. the value of the company was down over a fifth at one point today, before ending 15% lower. the losses came after it revealed that it had lost more than 800,000 customer accounts since june. centrica said it has also been affected by lower demand for energy, because of mild weather in the early part of the autumn. new rules are being introduced to stop internet providers

making misleading claims about their broadband packages. from may, companies will only be allowed to advertise a top speed if at least half of their customers can access it at peak times. the british actor gary oldman says that playing sir winston churchill in a new film about the wartime leader has been the most daunting challenge of his career. his portrayal of churchill has been widely tipped for an oscar, as our entertainment correspondent lizo mzimba reports. you cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth! gary oldman, at perhaps his most powerful and charismatic. would you stop interrupting me while i am interupting you!? almost unrecognisable for a performance he hopes truly embodies churchill. before we learn! well, i knew i didn‘t look like him. i thought that with some work i could approximate the voice. you get to a point where it

has to become creation, rather than impersonation. you try to get the spirit of the essence of the man. let me see your true qualities, your courage. my poorjudgment. your lack of vanity. my iron will. your sense of humour. ho, ho ho. like churchill, out of public view, oldman did have occasional doubts. the work that is most terrifying is often the work that turns out the best, because, to begin with, it seemed insurmountable. it was just such a mountain to climb. churchill, of course, has been played so many times by so many people. you‘ve got this image of churchill, but is that contaminated or in any way influenced by albert finney as churchill? the chancellor of the exchequer, doing pretty well. or robert hardy as churchill? they will soon be looking for war! so i went to the newsreel.

i saw a man who was dynamic, youthful, full of energy. i believe we are to meet regularly... darkest hour doesn‘t reach uk cinemas until next january. but gary oldman is already odds—on favourite to win the academy award for best actor. if i was going to get an oscar, i can‘t think of a better part to get it for, let‘s put it that way. we shall fight on the beaches! a portrayal of the past that many expect to make history in the film world, too. we shall never surrender! lizo mzimba, bbc news. the ashes series is under way and in just over an hour‘s time england will resume batting against australia in the first test in brisbane. england won the toss and chose to bat first, ending the day on 196 for a.

live to the gabba stadium and our correspondent andy swiss. yes, welcome to brisbane. how many times have we seen england blown away here on day one of an ashes series? well, it didn‘t happen this time. yes, australia‘s bowlers did battle back, but england‘s batsman will resume with a real chance. it is almost a national hobby, beating england is what australia have done so often here. and their fans flock to the gabba with a confidence to match the visitors‘ caution. without ben stokes, england‘s low—key line—up began as the ashes underdogs, and after opting to bat, it didn‘t take long to see why. mitchell starc snaring alastair cook for just two. australia‘s paceman pounding in. the verbal bouncers flying. but instead of a collapse, a comeback. not many expected james vince to be picked for this tour, but he set about showing why.

the hosts‘ much hyped attack looking toothless, until this. stoneman emphatically bowled by pat cummins for 53, before a moment of brilliance in the field from nathan lyon. after his pre—ashes fighting talk, some way to back it up. vince run out for 83 and suddenly the pendulum had veered australia‘s way. joe root surviving an lbw decision, but not for long. the review showed he was out, the skipper gone for 15. before a few morale—boosting blows from moeen ali helped guide england through to the close. for the fans, then, a first day of fluctuating fortunes. england‘s impressive start followed by australia‘s late resurgence. the early signs suggest this could be a competitive series. an absorbing start to the ashes, then, but england know the hard work has only just begun. yes, england will resume on 196—a.

they are actually starting play half hour early because of yesterday‘s rain delay. with the game so finely poised, there is a real sense that today‘s first session could be crucial. thanks very much, and andy swiss looking forward to the game tomorrow. newsnight is coming up on bbc two. here‘s evan. do animals feel pain or have emotions? dog owners know the answer to that. but it‘s been a raging controversy this week. mps have been accused of denying that animals can have feelings. could they really believe it? or is itjust fake news? join me now on bbc two. here on bbc one, it‘s time for the news where you are.