murm— introduce our guest, thora will introduce our guest, thora frost, member of the icelandic fiscal council, so she is well versed when it comes to the impact of things like volcanic ash and the impact it can have. let's talk about what's going on in bali and of course the situation there. this article we have mentioned in the financial times trying to gauge the cost of this. it is not easy to try and substantiate at this point, is it, really? no, absolutely. ithink the tourism industry is big for bali and indonesia, 6% of gdp, so a big impact, notjust on tourism, it will have a wider impact as well, so, yeah, serious impact on the economy in indonesia. for bali as well, an extremely important time of year, one of the busiest time of year, and they get so many tourists, it is

critical for their economy, isn't it, where tourism is one of the most — the biggest generators off economic growth. absolutely, it will have a large impact on the economy. tell us about iceland, because, in 2010, the situation with volcanic ash, i mean, it was enormous at the time, i remember it really well, went on for many days. it did, it had an impact on the whole traffic in europe, really, notjust around iceland. flights were just halted everywhere, so it had an impact outside of iceland on other tourism operators. it didn't last very long, the whole eruption completely, you know, no flight zone, but it did in fa ct know, no flight zone, but it did in fact the tourism industry in iceland at the time, 2010. what happened following that is that after they saw what happened, the government launched a push on tourism, so following from that, slightly oddly,

you can see a tipping point for iceland, even though the tourism industry was not very big at the time, we were hoping for it to help us time, we were hoping for it to help us out of the banking crisis, so the government decided if they did nothing, this would have a difficult and big impact on the tourism industry. they had to push it up and they went forward with a big marketing strategy. and that actually worked. it paid off. yes, massive growth in iceland. tourism is booming. it is huge. it has gone up. and that was mainly because the government focused on it in terms of investment, marketing, everything they pushed for. is that it? it put iceland in people's mind, with the volcano, people try to pronounce it, followed by a big marketing push to get people in. 0k. followed by a big marketing push to get people in. ok. we will keep a close eye on bali and at times we will bring you live images of the

volcano, as it were. let's look at other stories now, this in the independent, and on many papers in the uk today, partly because liam fox, the international trade secretary, has been talking to the press in the uk and he has been talking about northern ireland. what is tricky is he is basically saying that there has to be an agreement on trade before there can be some sort of deal done as far as northern ireland and ireland and what the border will look like when the uk leads the european union. but of course brussels has said it has to be the other way around. and there seems to be a stalemate which might prove to be tricky at this time. and politically sensitive, economically sensitive. you know, ireland, the uk, you know, ireland, 50% of export goes to the uk, so it is huge for them, and big for the uk. and this

isa them, and big for the uk. and this is a deadlock, you know. it can't work for both people. someone has to give. the deadlock is extremely difficult to resolve, given the political sensitivity of northern ireland and ireland and also, of course, with the dup being a part of the conservative government's wafer thin sort of seating in the houses of parliament — it is very difficult for theresa may to navigate this. of parliament — it is very difficult for theresa may to navigate thism will be extremely difficult and interesting. i think they have ten days, well, that is the deadline they have set. yes, that is right. the next european union summit taking place. absolutely, so it is very sensitive, it will be very difficult and there is no clear solution. what is your expectation that we will get some kind of progress within ten days on the issue of trade? and the issue of northern ireland ? issue of trade? and the issue of northern ireland? you would think so. northern ireland? you would think so. i mean, it is very important, you know. thinking, it will sort

itself out in the end. that is not good enough for the uk. you have to get somewhere. let's move on, talking of strategy, negotiation, and lack of headway, it would seem. we had more discussions going on in germany, of course, this time last week, talking about the collapse of coalition talks, which was not, well, i say not expected, it was difficult to predict how it would work out. right now, angela merkel working extremely hard to get a deal with sp0. working extremely hard to get a deal with spd. so, how are we doing with that, do you think? this is so important. the german economy critical for the eurozone. absolutely. everybody is watching this, every twist and turn. the stability of the euro, it has been in since tony blair was in. indeed. it has been a long time. they are putting everything into get the coalition working, the grand coalition, as they call it. and for some stability they don't want another election. she doesn't want

the uncertainty of another election. and i think duestche that is probably good. it is interesting because the german press are reporting on how this is going, basically duestche welle says angela merkel katusha barked at the spd and they set a grand coalition would come at a price and they feel like they are in a position of strength right now, don't they? absolutely. the spd moving towards supporting coalition, which is good. let's move on to cyber monday. we apologise to viewers, we can't illustrate it today, we are battling with the graphics. in the gulf news, record yearfor graphics. in the gulf news, record year for online graphics. in the gulf news, record yearfor online sales, graphics. in the gulf news, record year for online sales, following black friday, and we had singles day not long ago in china, incredible, record—breaking, black friday went really well, high expectations for cyber monday today. how important

are these days and how important have they become for retailers? very important for retailers considering especially in the uk, you know, the wea k especially in the uk, you know, the weak economic situation, these are really important days and it seems to be, you know, black friday, then monday, and people then stop shopping. you would think that for retailers, they are having to mark down things so much and try to cut everybody else out of the market, like amazon is being extremely aggressive this year, but you do wonder how much money these poor retailers are going to make in terms of profit. absolutely, it is going to hurt their margins. it must do. so how has it come to the bottom line? black friday is because that is when, traditionally, companies went from the red to the black. is it happening with this discount? everybody is saving the christmas shopping for the black friday, cyber monday days, everything at a massive discount. absolutely. let's have a look at the new york times, living

offa look at the new york times, living off a glacier when it last. we put this in especially for you, thora, coming from iceland. tell us about this situation. this is interesting, this situation. this is interesting, this is in peru, the silver lining of climate change, i guess, you'd know, where there is farmland, very good farmland. actually being able to farm on it and get water and electricity because the glazier is melting. this is a temporary... you know, it is only going to work... actually, 2050, so quite a long time. it is farmland for a short period of time with a window of opportunity and in peru they are making the most of it. it looks like that, definitely. interesting, because of climate change. it is a mixed blessing, isn't it? let's look at the times, a final story, now, this is a picture story... indeed. i wonder if we can take it on camera six, right above us, the royal navy

has stepped into performing changing the guard at buckingham palace for the guard at buckingham palace for the first time in the ceremony‘s 350 year history. there you go. good old—fashioned camera on a newspaper. it is quite something, isn't it? absolutely, tourists, what will they think coming to the uk, they can't see big ben and now someone is changing the guard. it is only for two weeks. i think it is a nice change. why not shake it up? absolutely. thora, thank you for coming in. iappreciate absolutely. thora, thank you for coming in. i appreciate your appearance on the briefing today. and thank you for your company. apologies, as you can tell, we had issues with the visuals. it is that monday morning feeling. i will see you again soon. goodbye. hello once again. after a pretty chilly weekend quite widely across the british isles we are goign to see a change of weather tonight, albeit only

for a little while. it is thanks to an area of low pressure throws a great veil of cloud down across all parts of the british isles. first thing on monday there will be a wet and windy start to be had across the south. but not many of you will be scraping your cars first up. there will be other concerns, i suspect, if you are commuting across the southern counties of england and wales. in the first part of monday, simply because it is going to be really quite wet. even that little bit further north will have had rain overnight. quite windy too. so, tricky conditions. a lot of surface water and spray. into the northern half of the british isles, well, persistent rain in the very far north of scotland. elsewhere, a supply of showers from the word go. urged along by a north—north—westerly wind pushing those showers ever further towards the south and east. they replace the rainband which quits the scene on the southern counties of england but will be a bother for the channel islands for a good part of the day. following on behind, not particularly cold air. not at that stage, anyway. that's probably the mildest of the days of the week. tuesday, increasingly cold as we move towards the middle part

of the week. the low pressure moves further east. that opens the doors for the isobars to run pretty much from north to south across all parts of the british isles. down the spine of the country, a gloriously sunny day. if you are fully exposed to that breeze, mainly from the northern and eastern perspective, you are going to see some showers and i think across the high ground, not just in scotland, they will be wintry. and single figure temperatures abound. wednesday, perhaps a subtle change in wind direction could draw those wintry showers a little further inland and push them further south, down through the lincolnshire wolds, maybe into the north of norfolk as well. down the spine of the country there is still that bright weather to be had. on thursday, we may see an area of low pressure. that puts a squeeze on the isobars. it means more wind. a bitter wind at that. right down the eastern shores, particularly.

look at that temperature, four, five, six. it will be cold with a biting wind, especially in the east. hello, this is breakfast, with dan walker and louise minchin. eruption imminent. bali's airport is closed leaving thousands stranded as mount agung becomes increasingly volatile, with lava and molten rock close to the surface. the area is now on the highest state of alert indicating a major risk of eruption. hundreds of thousands have been moved into shelters. good morning, it's monday the 27th of november. also this morning: the five people

killed when a stolen car smashed into a tree in leeds are named. three are children, including two brothers. desperate measures.