prime minister this christmas? to be honest, i did. british political journalism is punctuated ona political journalism is punctuated on a daily basis that a prime minister —— with speculation that the prime minister is about to fall and they usually stay. so i am not surprised. she is dog—eared and determined. i'm told that even after the election trauma, she did not contemplate going. but at the same time, that election changed everything in british politics. it was as significant as the 1979 election when margaret thatcher appeared on the scene. because even though theresa may is still on the scene, it has changed the dynamics of brexit, it has falsified the idea that a left—wing leader is due for

oblivion is standing for election, change the assumption that young people do not vote. and it is still defining our politics many months later even though the same prime minister is in place. i started by saying this was about british politics but what has british politics but what has british politics been this year, all about brexit. and that is what we have to talk about. marc your thoughts about looking back on 2017, it took eight 01’ looking back on 2017, it took eight or nine months to get an agreement to get to phase two macro. 2017 has been dominated by the brexit deal in phase one. we lost nine months due to british internal politics. the whole thing came together extremely vaguely. the good thing for europe is that theresa may is still there because the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. europe

helps theresa may to stay in power. but i think in europe, it was a mixed year. you have bad news with the extreme right coming to power in austria, destabilising chancellor merkel, problems in catalonia. but then the good news was that the eu stayed united on the brexit deal, the eurozone is getting out of trouble and france had president macron, a modernist and the future of europe coming to power. laughter. such equanimity, perhaps laughter suggests a prize! british politics was paralysed completely by brexit. nobody is talking about any other problems, about health, education,

economic growth, the stagnation of the economy in this country. so it is amazing. brexit, brexit. the newspapers brainwashed people and diverted them from their own worries in this country. so i don't know how things will develop. 0k, many people anticipated theresa may's fall, many people did not expect her to last. she surprised everybody. the first phase of the negotiation actually went through and we are now coming to the difficult one, which is how the single market agreements could be finalised. it is extremely difficult. so i believe that britain needs a charismatic leader, a strong leader, to negotiate for the next phase because it will be crucial to reach a good deal. so, if not, i believe this country will suffer.

you can see now... why britain is afraid from election? why can't we have election? there was election. britain needs stability for a few years to get brexit through and also other things through and theresa may is the best leader, by default maybe, to do a deal in europe like she did a deal in 2017 which is a good deal because you need a soft brexit, you can't have a hard brexit and you can't have no deal. and she's the best to bring that. next week, we can discuss what might be awaiting us! jef, what do you think ofan awaiting us! jef, what do you think of an extraordinary year in britain, and brexit? i am pleased that because of those papering over of the differences in the phase one summit two macro years ago, everyone

says 0k. summit two macro years ago, everyone says ok. but fundamentally, i have felt that this is an arm —— a circle that cannot be squared. brexit does not make sense for britain and the deal that makes britain prosperous and happy and makes every body have their cake and eat it, does not exist. the only way that it has been able to be successful so far is that the hard issues have not been joined. i don't see how anywhere in europe, the kind of trade deal that britney is to prosper can be achieved with the way that the negotiations are structured. —— the kind of trade deal that britain needsis kind of trade deal that britain needs is to be —— to prosper. it is going to be a car crash. i am amazed that there was not more talk about productivity and the fact that

people, because they feel the cold wind of brexit, are leaving. nurses from the health service, doctors, professors, making their deals to go. we know that? yes, it is peaking. the rate of increase of immigration to britain is decreasing and there have been lots of interesting stories done about nurses who have been here for 25 yea rs of nurses who have been here for 25 years of saying, they don't want me here, iam years of saying, they don't want me here, i am going home. steve, do you pick up in your circle frustration that other domestic political issues have not had much focus this year? do you pick up on people saying could westminster tackle transport 01’ could westminster tackle transport or anything else? i am afraid i'm sad enough to hang around with people obsessed with brexit so why spend the whole 2017 talking with

people like that! but in 2017, brexit sucked up all political energy. in every sense. the stress and tension as they moved the phase one agreement in thatjames bond movie when she flew in the middle of the night to sign it on that friday morning at the end of december. to just the logistics, our embryonic trade arrangements being looked at by people with no experience of negotiating trade deals. of her working out how the regulatory framework will work post—brexit. these are massive issues and it is the case that normally at the end of the case that normally at the end of the year you have looked back at the nhs, public spending, tax, all the things you talk about in british politics... yes yes. europe is not obsessed by brexit. we are going on with main issues like do we want a

federal europe or a two speed europe. britain is obsessed. one thing is clear, britain is going back to the blue passports! no more of the red passports! yes, we got that. january saw the inauguration of the 45th president of the united states. the swearing—in was seen "by the largest crowd to ever watch an inauguration" — copyright sean spicer. campaign pledges fulfilled? pulling out of the paris climate accord, and tax cuts recently voted through. we've also seen the continuation of bellicose language, fake news and alternative facts. jef — trump's been in office 11 months, how's his record? i think it is so bad in some ways that it becomes... we become in year to it. —— we become used to it. he

isa to it. —— we become used to it. he is a remarkable figure, not in a good way. these tax cuts, there are so good way. these tax cuts, there are so many bad things to talk about. his most recent achievement, just voted through. like the founder of trump university, the taj mahal casino, great promises but not very goodin casino, great promises but not very good in reality. this tax cut, there isa good in reality. this tax cut, there is a tax cut but 60% of the benefit goes to the top 1%. trump himself will benefit greatly from it because a lot of the provisions seem to benefit real estate trusts and things he has a personal interest in. the republican party passed it. they say bad things, and they say he goes too far or attacks people wrongly, the tweaking has to stop, but they all lined up behind him and voted for it. there is a way in which he... the fake news, that you

mention, he has cheapened the language. it is almost orwellian. it is cheap orwellian, where you can't know what the truth is. scientists are leaving the government. the treasury department experts on the tax bill were not allowed to speak because they would have pointed out the contradictions. and so you have get the mooring is what make a democracy possible loosened by co nsta nt democracy possible loosened by constant nasty nurse from him. —— you have the moorings of what makes a democracy possible. as he has said —— as we have said, his call vote is still there. when the pollsters go out, they don't find people who regretted voting for trump, they say they would do it again. the economy is growing. employment is up, he has

put his people in the federal bank. people vote for the economy. but it is not his legacy. it is obama's leather goods they —— it is obama's legacy. that is irrelevant. the legacy. that is irrelevant. the legacy is there. it is an inheritance but even in newjersey and alabama, boaters voted against trump. he is at the lowest rating. his core supporters are unshakeable but the suburban women, the college educated, the rabuka moderates, are finding him offensive and who knows, but you are saying resistance. you see muller and the press doing good reporting and the me two movements

—— hashtag me to movement. reporting and the me two movements -- hashtag me to movement. that that tie into the first democratic says of being elected al obama quest —— alabama ? but no of being elected al obama quest —— alabama? but no impact on the core base. the coming election in november will decide. i presume there will be a shock to president trump. when we talk about the internals, the economy is improving and unemployment is down to 4.7% instead of 10.4%. the stock exchange is also increasing and the stock market is very high. but you can't say that he achieved that in 11 months. definitely there is a groundwork for this. and foreign policy, just last wednesday, last thursday, we had a huge referendum

about president trump and his foreign policy. it was a huge defeat, two thirds of the international community voted against his resolution to move the american embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem. there was a huge disapproval of him. another challenge that he cannot handle, north korea. it is a nuclear power fiow. north korea. it is a nuclear power now. a ballistic missile our power. and they managed to continue their nuclear test, their missile test and they have a huge capability to hurt their neighbours in south korea and japan. and they could reach the united states. this is a huge failure. we will talk more about that in a moment. steve, your thoughts? the core verges always the last. hardline brexiteers is always

the last to move. they are not going to admit that they were wrong to electron. but he has shown the power of words. a lot of the things he said he would do, he has not done. he said he would scrap obamacare and some of the things he said he would do here is not being able to do. but the words themselves have provoked, incited. it just shows, the words themselves have provoked, incited. itjust shows, using presidency in a way no one else has, as an altar. notjust measures being and lamented but words uttered being enough to shake things up and in nearly always alarming ways. enough to shake things up and in nearly always alarming waysm enough to shake things up and in nearly always alarming ways. it is the internet age, it is trolling, it is not thoughtful and it destabilises. and the internet permits him and has made him and permits him and has made him and permits the russians to interfere in

the american election and this is the american election and this is the technological trend that underlines the uncertainties and difficulties that we are grappling with. you have touched on things that we will pick up on next week. let's reflect a little further on the year that is coming to an end. in particular the middle east. in october raqqa, the de facto capital of so called islamic state, finally fell to us backed forces. is there finally a degree of stability in syria? and north korea conducted a series of weapons tests, including launching its longest range missile to date. at dell, you commented on this, do you have any optimism? there is a sense that after as so many years of turmoil and walls and destruction

and death, we have a relatively sta ble and death, we have a relatively stable syria. islamic state was defeated, it was defeated on the ground. the caliphate is nonexistent. they used to control an area which was half of iraq and half of syria. no more. but the question is, can we celebrate? i believe it is, can we celebrate? i believe it is premature. we have to wait. because those people now in transition in syria, they disappeared. physically, where are they? they are underground. we look at islamic state in syria and iraq but they have branches all over the world. they have provinces in libya and yemen and afghanistan and pakistan. still some of them are underground in iraq and syria. they could surface any time. they are more dangerous 110w

could surface any time. they are more dangerous now because it is very cheap to carry out terrorism for revenge. we have to remember that september 11, the whole operation cost only about $320,000 and look at the losses which the whole world suffered from. we have to look at three countries. libya, yemen and afghanistan. these semi—failed orfailed yemen and afghanistan. these semi—failed or failed states are candidates to be the new kit quarto of the —— headquarters of the islamic state. where it was at the macabre, his cabinet, —— the leader of islamic state, where it is cabinet? they used our 15,000 20,000 sympathisers and members or fighters, where are they now? where

have they disappeared to? winner that america has the best surveillance and the intelligence service, we know that america has the best intelligence service. the same with the british and the friend, where are these people? so the fault of raqqa is only a temporary reprieve? it is a pause. which is good news in 2017 but you are making the point that there is... it is very good news to get rid of them. very good news to defeat them. they are not as they used to be. they don't have the freedom to move and they are not controlling or having a strong base in the digital world. they are not on facebook or twitter as much as they used to be. so this is the most important thing. if this is the point of their strength, to control

their media, video tapes, newspapers, 110w their media, video tapes, newspapers, now it is gone. the recruitment network, they used to having huge recruitment network, it is very weak and now. but we have to be very careful. they can come back easily. now they want to take revenge. plan b is terrorism. they could terrorise the whole world. they are very vicious people. but the last thing, this unity from the international community, when they united together to fight this phenomenon, now i can see this unity is weakening a bit. by the us? five trump's recognition of jerusalem is weakening a bit. by the us? five trump's recognition ofjerusalem as the capital of israel, it has put trump outside the unity. the only realistic way was as macron said by

saving the prime minister of lebanon from being a prisoner and giving lebanon, this fragile country. —— keeping lebanon. but it is very gloomy for the middle east. we end this year with more stability? yes, destruction but at least syria is now stable. the real unstable thing is lebanon and israel and palestine where things have got worse. is lebanon and israel and palestine where things have got worsem is lebanon and israel and palestine where things have got worse. it is not only syria which is stable now. relatively stable. it is the whole region. iraq is stable again. syria and iraq are coming back. also the stability of syria is good for immigration because many people, many syrian people will go back

because syria is a rich country and the people of syria are hard—working. the people of syria are hard-working. it is devastated at the moment, the infrastructure is devastated, but the point is that there will be those who want to return. they will be reconstruction in syria and iraq. this will attract a lot of capital, a lot of skilled people. it will attract a lot of immigrants. yemen, in egypt, in lebanon, it is very piecemeal. a chequered situation. we are talking about syria and iraq but yemen is important, there is a forgotten war there for the last three years and there for the last three years and the west and not paying attention to the west and not paying attention to the destruction of yemen. about! million people facing an affidavit of cholera and !7 million people in yemen facing starvation. britain stayed out because of the saudis.

the saudis were bombing them. the saudis could not win this war for the last three years and the international community should intervene and put an end to this war. borisjohnson said it is illegal, to keep the sanctions on yemen because people are starving. donald trump's relationship with the yemen is nonexistent. they will be nothing done. it is interesting to me, the idea that the saudis can modernise is attractive to outsiders. i don't know whether it is possible. one wonders because it is possible. one wonders because it isa is possible. one wonders because it is a complex is system, whether he can keep all the strings was she has now pulled, in control. can keep all the strings was she has now pulled, in controllj can keep all the strings was she has now pulled, in control. i completely agree with you, he is modernising

the country, the leader of saudi. he is dismantling a radical sect of islam which used to control the country and promote radicalism. most of al-qaeda and islamic state, there ideology was from what hobbies. secondly, he is —— —— from the sect. he is also modernising like allowing women to drive. he is opening up the country to tourism. but the problem is that he is involved in this war in yemen. andy is also getting trump a lot of money. $460 billion which created a loss ofjobs for the americans. but not for middle east and, not for saudis. modernising yev, but bad policy as well. and, not for saudis. modernising yev, but bad policy as welllj and, not for saudis. modernising yev, but bad policy as well. i want to mention iran. steve, do you have

thoughts on the year that has gone? not really. i would like to look back and say that the questions that have dominated the politics of the middle east in 2017, like how do you deal with a stateless institution like isis? you can get grid of them —— you can get rid of them in raqqa but you don't get rid of them altogether. and the pertinent questions remain the same at the end of the year. and trump is the calamitous figure to be a mediating figure, those questions were raised in 2011, 2013 to 16 under blair, busch and obama and nobody has found adequate answers to them yet. that seems to be the sort of issue that will be framing the next year as well. thank you very much to all of you. we could talk a lot longer. that's all for this week,

though not this year — do join us at the same time next week when we'll consider what 2018 may have in store. for now, if you're celebrating christmas, do enjoy the festive season. thanks for watching, goodbye. no snow and ice for those travelling home over the next day or two. but for those after something more festive, not going to deliver much. mild and cloudy and breezy at times particularly in the north where we will see wet weather. christmas day may become a touch colder. not called out there today. the best of the sunshine in eastern scotland and

north—east england. rain in scotland through the day and in western parts, staying grey. particularly on the holes. if you are travelling this afternoon, you could encounter hill fog in the south—west of england particularly over the moors. in the eastern and, some breaks in the cloud. forget that as well to the cloud. forget that as well to the east of the pennines in northern england. sunny spells throughout and sunshine three east in northern ireland and eastern scotland. that will boost the temperature. outbreaks of rain in the highlands and islands. that rain will push into south—west dockland and northern ireland and then go back northwards and become more extensive. a little rain mallard again into northern england as well. -- ilic rain again into northern england as well. —— ilic rain now and again. a breeze across many parts tonight and a breeze, temperatures holding up and

temperatures above where they should be by day, never mind by night. christmas eve, heading parts into western europe, check because there will be dense fog problems. we have more isobars on the chart over us which means more breeze and that will clearly fold particularly over high ground. lot of surface water spraying the roads. brightening up in northern scotland later and turning wet in the far north of england but the rest of england and wales, other than the old spot of rain, mostly dry and the chance of sunny breaks every now and again. it'll stay mild. christmas day will be mild, breezy across england and wales and turning wet from the west. heavy rain across wales and west of england but after overnight rain in scotla nd england but after overnight rain in scotland and northern ireland things brighten up and a few wintry flurries on the mountains.