this is bbc news. the headlines: a wave of anti—government protests has continued for a third day in iran. several demonstrations have turned violent and it's thought at least two people have been shot in the western town of dorud. in the capital tehran, thousands joined a rally to show their support for the government. the authorities in nepal says they've banned solo climbers from the country's mountains, including mount everest, in an attempt to reduce accidents. they've also upheld a controversial decision to introduce restrictions on disabled climbers. the black lives matter activist erica garner has died, aged 27. she suffered a heart attack last week. ms garner came to prominence three years ago when her father, eric garner, died after being choked by a police officer as he was being arrested for a minor offence. now on bbc news, dateline london looks forward to 2018. hello, and welcome

to dateline london. i'm jane hill. today, we're taking time today to look ahead to the world in 2018 in britain, the rest of europe, the us, and around the world. with me to discuss these weighty matters, is the british commentator and columnist for the sunday telegraph, janet daley, the writer on arab affairs, abdel bari atwan, from germany's die welt, stefanie bolzen, and from the us, stryker mcguire from bloomberg. and a warm welcome to you all.

thank you for being with us in between christmas and new year. we begin in europe. january is a time for talks — phase two of the brexit negotiations will finally get underway between the uk and eu, while in germany, angela merkel has to resume discussions about forming a government after her attempts to do so failed in the wake of september's election. well, janet, my goodness, it took long enough to get through phase one of the brexit talks. how optimistic are you going into the next round? me personally, ortheresa may? yes, optimistic ultimately, but it is going to be messy and bloody. every single stage of this will follow the trajectory of the preliminary stage, so it looks like a miasma of chaos and recrimination, untilfive minutes until midnight when suddenly, it will be resolved and that is because economic reality has to take priority over political vanity. the extent of the recriminations and poisonous atmosphere

is correlated to the need to find a solution to the bitterness that european capitals feel about the uk leaving. but ultimately, there will be a kind of good news, which most of the media will regard as a surprise, even though it was inevitable and somehow or other, it will come right in terms of presentation. what that will actually mean, your guess is as good as mine. but i think that actually, because of all the recrimination and chaos which will miraculously dissolve in everybody congratulating everybody else will actually strengthen the position of theresa may, so she personally will be stronger this year than last year. and that is so interesting, domestically. well, we're all here with our

crystal balls today. ijust can't believe there won't be recrimination. but there will be! this would hug will be really small. look what happened, look what happened. in the last period, they were all calling each other names, all casting each other out of the garden, and then suddenly... theresa may was praised. absolutely! all praising each other! it was all wonderful and happy. mutual regard, that will happen at least half a dozen times in the next year. at every point. pragmatism on all sides. i think that the true believers are never going to be satisfied with what she gets. that is true. but they are a smaller and smaller number. she deserves the praise, to be honest. many people predicted that she would not be up to the job, so she managed to handle... she would not even be there. yes, exactly. many people had a huge doubt about her capabilities to actually negotiate these tough issues,

and to be fair to her, and to the negotiating team, they managed to at least first achieve the border problem with northern ireland. the cost of the divorce with the eu. also, the british expats in europe and european expats in britain. in a short time, it is a huge achievement. the next phase will be difficult butjudging by the first phase, i am optimistic. we are very much here to look forward to the year ahead. stefanie, here in this city, we are rightly — or wrongly — obsessed with brexit. i wonder germany has its own issues to confront and we sometimes forget that germany technically does not have its formal government yet. yes, there were elections in september, then coalition talks with two smaller parties. these broke down.

and now, onjanuary 7th there will be the next round with the social democrats which may mean we will see a third round of coalition between the two big parties. what does that mean? i am trying not to use the word brexit in my next sentence! i have failed! but what will it mean for the negotiations? not much. because angela merkel is seen as the rock at the heart of this. whatever the government is in germany, it will not make a difference towards brexit. some people say if it is a coalition with the social democrats, which would mean that martin schultz will be vice chancellor. whatever he might be, it might mean a harder time for britain because he is a european, but it won't change much. it is not only germany

negotiating with britain, do not forget this. there are 27. i attended the last summit in brussels, and i had not been there for a long time. when you live in britain, it is brexit all day and all night, but there, hardly anybody talks about brexit — they talk about their own probelms. and they are massive in europe — they need to reform the eurozone, a massive row about refugees, so europe is pretty much in 2018 looking at itself, not so much britain. much of the rest of the world looks at merkel as a kind of rock, and they yearn for her continuance. not in germany, though. i know! is the rest of the world wrong to have this much faith? funnily enough, tomorrow, it is the 13th time she will hold the new year speech. it isn't quite the queen ‘s

christmas message but it is a solemn institution. it is her 13th time. the germans are tired of her. as you rightly say, she sees herself as a rock. you have donald trump, brexit, wars, so she sees a duty of serving the country as her mandate. that is very interesting. you have mentioned donald trump, excellent. we cannot avoid that either! let's turn to the us. analysts are already speculating about the possible results of the mid—term elections. could an upset be on the cards for president trump and the republicans, particularly in the lower house of representatives, where all 435 seats are upforgrabs? but that, of course, isn't until november — much could happen before then in the unpredictable white house? stryker, rather than thinking about elections, should we perhaps be focusing on robert mueller‘s russia investigation? well, we can think about robert mueller and clearly, that is

hugely important. however, there is this almost sort of incredibly narrow view of the trump administration in terms of its troubles and robert mueller and russia, and i don't think that is a terminal problem, frankly. for trump himself? yes. you think he will survive? i do think he will survive, yes. i do, however, think it is a distraction. but i feel like it has been more of a distraction in the past than it will be in the future. i think that in the future, because of the elections that will occur in november, and also because he is hugely unpopular in percentage terms, he is historically unpopular at this stage in his presidency. the lowest approval ratings since

records began. therefore, having spent his first year being forced to be pretty much a traditional conservative republican in his policies, not in his actions — but in his policies. with the tax cuts? absolutely. you have not seen trump unchained, and that is trade war. trump unchained is even more a change of social policy in the united states. he has made huge changes in the judiciary which hardly any of us talk about but hundreds and hundreds ofjudges coming in who represent a very, very different point of view to the one that has prevailed in the last decade or so. i think that because he may see the next election as a kind of deadline, he may see that these 10, 11 months are super important for — in terms of making things happen that he wants to happen.

you say we have not seen him unchained. that is a striking phase. is he going to be? he has been surrounded by people, he has been hemmed in by the people around him. not — not — i think we put too much credence into his tweets, too much weight into his tweets. you have to look at what he has actually done, and it has not been very much. one reason is because he is really blockaded by a kind of establishment, but i'm not sure that that establishment can hold. you are talking about internal policies. when we look at his foreign policy, it is provocative and a disaster. we don't know how he is going to handle north korea. he promised to change the regime, or bomb north korea, to put an end to these nuclear tests. it could not do so completely.

when it comes to the middle east, in syria, he was defeated. in russia, they now have the upper hand, so when we talk about his latest move to move the american embassy from tel aviv tojerusalem, it has created huge problems in the middle east. the american image is very, very damaged. internally, maybe he improves the economy and implement rates, but outside as a superpower, it is losing a lot. i think that is true. even though i am jewish and a supporter of israel, i thought that was a gratuitous gesture, the idea of moving the amnesty to jerusalem, especially as it cannot happen for a couple of years. we would have to construct a new

embassy. i thought, what on earth is the point of that? the only point it seems to me is it is just to do with the political strategy over iraq. iran is the chief sponsor of hezbollah and hamas and the anti— israeli forces. and i think that he was trying to show that iran is not the powerful player that it pretends to be in the region, so if there was any logic to that move, that is what it was. but i actually think that his foreign policy is so ultimately isolationist and protectionist that what he is doing is claiming to be removing america from the world stage. officially. but then on the other hand, he makes these very aggressive moves about north korea. the secretary of state seems to be running a completely separate foreign policy, though it is difficult to tell what their intentions are. internally, he has accomplished very little. the tax bill was the first legislative success. but the justice area is very important and that could change the social policy of the country. does a lifetime appointments.

exactly. but he is trying to con iran but he is helping it by these moves. by by foreign policy. i did not say it was clever! enhancing the role of iran in the region. and supremacy in the middle east. but barack 0bama paved the way for that. he left the field to russia in syria. that was the most appalling foreign policy mistake in living memory, probably, and having inherited that situation, you cannot blame the trump white house all that much. for russia's to germany in the region. we are talking so much about foreign policy and your point about world reputation and so on, but ultimately, people in other countries are not voting for him. no, his policies seem to be based — because there is no coherence really, but they seem to be based on two things. his own instincts, the way

he has always operated. and also, it translates this group of people. it translates in arabic into al-qaeda. it is all about the base and what he promised them will stop that is the jerusalem thing, he promised it during the campaign. it does have something to do with the power play with iran. there was a kind of logic. that is interesting, it takes us on to broadening our discussion. even as we go to air in the last few days, there have been striking scenes in iran, with thousands of people on the streets taking part in anti—government protests in a number cities. where could this lead? to look at your tv screen and look

at that number of people. is it all about the economy, what is driving that? actually it is more than the economy. the economic situation is very difficult in iran, definitely the prices are going up dramatically, iran under punishment by the united states, by europe, but i believe also people would like to have more important moves to improve that standard of living in iran itself. you have opposition. the protests which happened again five years ago, so we don't know yet whether this will be a huge uprising, a huge protest, whether they will succeed to change that ruling elite in iran. the mullahs in particular, we don't know yet.

but now we have two kind of protests. the opposition of the government who are saying we don't want to be involved in lebanon, we don't want to be involved in palestine, we don't want to be involved in syria, we want to concentrate on iran itself. but you also have also a counter protest, which is supporting of the government. of the grand mufti. this is the problem. now, are we going to see clashes between the two sides, and is it going to last longer than many people anticipated but we have to admit, until now, there is no blank cheque. but what happened in syria, for example, or iraq or egypt or yemen, until now, you know, there are about 50 people arrested, but not bloodshed. the proves to be that the iranian

regime, if there was bloodshed they wouldn't be able to control. we have to wait and see. but iran will be the major player in that coming year. they will be there. lebanon, they will be there. in gaza. they are a key player. how do you think the balance of power between saudi arabia and iran will shape down? yesterday or two days ago there was a report on israeli television saying that trump and netanyahu struck a deal in order to launch a huge campaign against iran to deprive it of nuclear progress, and to deprive it of ballistic missiles. they have a secret deal in this field. it means the coming

year will be crucial. the saudis are already in the american camp. the saudis sense that iran is a very dangerous enemy. they are sunni and they look at things from that angle. i believe look at iran in the coming year, it will be a very, very major player. they managed to win in syria, they have a huge influence in iraq, and they are also having a huge influence, a war by proxy, in yemen. so they are a major player. and the us administration's role in that? it's role at this point seems to be very much on the side of the saudis, and trump's foreign policy seems to be motivated, among other things, that anything that barack 0bama did, he will not do.

so therefore he is very anti—iran. steve bannon has always had this thing for iran. iran have been the main sponsor for terrorism in area, hezbollah and hamas, there is a justification for being critical of the iranian regime, and particularly of not wanting them to get nuclear weapons. but it is the idea of a huge conflict between iran and saudi. what you want to try to do is to prevent that from happening. but what is the alternative? to go to war against iran? it has a huge country. it is not iraq or syria. it has an arsenal of missiles, also it has military wings like hezbollah in lebanon, so they can actually create a lot of problems. that is why the europeans are very reserved when it comes to the iranian policy.

there is a nuclear deal, signed after a huge, brutal and lengthy negotiation. now, trump is then saying he will not accept this. what is the alternative? there is scepticism about that deal, about whether it would prevent iran from getting nuclear capability. so there is a legitimate and justifiable school of thought that says the iran deal was a mistake, and that was donald trump's premise. but nuclear organisations are monitoring iranian activities and programs and they gave iran a clean sheet. they said they abided with the treaty completely. they did not break the agreement. the europeans supported that point of view, so why donald trump is actually trying to bang the drums of waragainst iran, this is the problem. it is also a problem for europe,

it will be a headache for them to say we will stick to this deal because this is causing another confrontation between europe and the us. because europe is so divided on many things, it will once again show their weakness. i am sorry, i'm going to cut you off. as we approach 2018, we did want to close with a thought from all of you about other matters that we have not touched on. 2017 was striking for so many things, but particularly for the #metoo campaign. everything we saw in different countries. helpful to women in so many ways, all the accusations around harvey weinstein. you could say that sparked this. i am interested in your different perspectives. where does #metoo go in 2018?

does it continue to gather steam, does it help women in some countries more than others? your thoughts? it has been such a seismic shift this year. whether or not it continues with the sort of fervour that it has had, i honestly don't know, it is hard to say. but it is clearly such a powerful force. this means a lot for trump. this could be, even if it does not persist as a huge force for the next several years, by the time we reach the next election in the united states, i think the american woman voter could really determine trump's re—election, or not. i think for him, it is such a powerful thing that i think it will emerge again in all kinds of different ways, including at election time. that is really interesting. we all remember what he said on that tape, and still got elected. yes, what is important about everything to do with the sexual harassment

scandal is awareness. women are more aware that they should not accept things that some men who are in of power might do to them, and that is important. but it does come in waves. this is not the first time. we had this in germany five or six years ago. in brussels there were scandals. the question is on the ground, how much does it really change? i am not so optimistic about it, especially because of trump. how was somebody elected who is such a misogynist? and now you say this could haunt him. i am not sure this will happen. women in america have voted for him, despite his attitudes towards women. i don't get it. i will give you the example of tunisia. i was told by the president of tunisia, i was elected by women. without women votes, i would not be president. they are very strong and they managed to counter radical islamic groups.

to prove that, they are a power of change. i believe this is a good example. i think any women power should also look at the middle east, look at the third world and try to help. women can be very effective as a tool of change in these parts of our world. i think, i am optimistic. i think they will achieve more. janet, are you optimistic? about what?! gender politics? i would agree that it comes in waves. in the history of gender politics in my lifetime, it is difficult to translate it into electoral politics. women do not vote as women, they vote as wives, partners, mothers, you know, grandmothers. they vote for their families. if they are working class women, they are more concerned

to be putting food on the table than breaking the glass ceiling. there is class distinction between highly educated women and not very educated, unprivileged women. i don't think this will translate into electoral consequences, though it may have very different social consequences. happy new year to all of you, and to everybody watching. that's it for dateline london for now. do join us again in 2018. goodbye. hi there.

2017 is finishing on a windy note in the guise of storm dylan. the to 80 miles per hour. it will likely bring in down trees. probably see some power cuts as likely bring in down trees. probably see some power cuts as well and for a time those strong winds could filter through scotland's central belt. 0therwise filter through scotland's central belt. otherwise a band of overnight rain clearing from eastern england, following with sunshine. but today is the day of the sunshine and blustery showers. coming along in bands, getting blown across the country and some fund of mixed in the. however it will be relatively mild and lowly in the south. cooler conditions north. as we countdown towards midnight and those celebrations, showers will be a feature in the forecast. at midnight, between four and seven. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe.

my name is duncan golestani. our top stories: violence in iran after a third day of anti—government protests. reports say at least two people have been shot. in the capital tehran, an official show of support for the government draws thousands of people. from fountains of ice to frozen sharks, north america's arctic winter looks set to continue into the new year. nepal bans solo climbers from scaling its mountains. critics say it will do little to reduce accidents. and new year revellers prepare to see in 2018 in style, but in many european capitals, there'll be tight security.