millions of people thronged brazil's copacabana beach to celebrate. in london, crowds saw 30 tons of fireworks light up the sky above the river thames. dubai marked the start of 2018 with a record—breaking laser show at the world's tallest building, the burj khalifa. in his first comments since anti—government protests began in iran, president rouhani has said people have the right to protest, but their actions shouldn't lead to violence. earlier police used water cannon against protesters in tehran. more than 1,000 cars have gone up in smoke in the english city of liverpool. they were parked in a multi—storey car park next to the echo arena when a large fire broke out. there are no reports of serious injuries. now on bbc news, it is that one london. hello and a very warm welcome to

dateline london. i'm jane hello and a very warm welcome to dateline london. i'mjane hill and today we are taking time to look ahead to the world in 2018. in britain and around the world. with me to discuss these weighty matters, the british commentator and columnist for the sunday telegraph ona columnist for the sunday telegraph on a daily, the writer on arab affairs abdel, from germany's de velde stephanie and the us striker maguire. a warm welcome to you all. but begin a programme. january is nearly upon us and phase two of the

brexit negotiations will finally get under way between the uk and the eu. and angela merkel discusses government forming after her attempt to do so failed in the wake of september's collection are much optimism due into 2018 with? yes, optimistic ultimately but it is going to be messy and bloody. every single stage of this negotiation is going to follow pretty much the same drop trajectory is the first preliminary state which is to say it looks have some of accommodation thatis looks have some of accommodation that is because economic reality has to ta ke that is because economic reality has to take priority over political vanity. the poisonous atmosphere is directly correlated to the need to find a solution to the eton is that

european capitals feel about britain. most of the media will regard as a surprise even though it is inevitable and somehow or other it will come right in terms of presentation chaos and recrimination, and tell five minutes until midnight presentation ive minutes until midnight when suddenly it will be resolved and that is because economic reality has to take royalty over political vanity. the extent of the recriminations and poisonous atmosphere is correlated to the need to find a solution to the bitterness that european capitals feel about the uk leaving. but ultimately, there will be a kind of good news, which most of the media will regard as a surprise, even though it was inevitable and somehow or other it will come right in terms of presentation. what that will actually mean, your guess is as good as mine. because of all the recrimination

and chaos, which will miraculously dissolve in everybody congratulating everybody else will actually strengthen the position of theresa may, so she personally will be stronger this year than last year. and that is so interesting, domestically. i just can't believe there won't be recrimination. but there will be. this would hug will be really small. in the last period, they were all calling each other names, all costing each other out of the garden, and then suddenly, rob theresa may was praised. absolutely, it was all wonderful and happy. mutual regard, that will happen at least half a dozen times in the next year. i think that the true believers are never going to be satisfied with what she gets. i think that the true believers are never going to be satisfied with what she gets. that is true. but they are a smaller and smaller number. she deserves the praise, to be honest. many people predicted that she would not be up to the job, so she managed to handle... she would not even be there. yes, exactly. and we are very much here to look forward to the year ahead has and stefanie, as we have reflected here all year, here in this city, in this country, we are rightly —

or wrongly — somewhat obsessed with brexit. i wonder germany, however, has its own issues to confront and we sometimes forget that in the uk that germany, technically, still does not have a formal government. yeah, of course. there were elections in september, and then there were coalition talks with two small parties. angela merkel held those. these broke down. and now, onjanuary seventh, they will go to the next round with the spd, the social democrats, which may mean we might see, a fourth — no, a third time of a grand coalition in germany which is a coalition between two big parties. and what does that — i'm sorry — i was trying not to use the word brexit in my next sentence! i have failed! but does that mean for the negotiations, for our own current obsession. not much. no, it will not... because angela merkel is seen as the rock, rightly or wrongly, the rock at the heart of europe. whatever a government is there in germany, it will not make much of a difference towards brexit. even — some people say if it is a coalition with the social democrats, which would mean that martin schultz, the former president of the european parliament,

will be whatever, vice chancellor, whatever he might be, that might mean even a harder time for britain because he is an arch european. that might happen, but it won't change much. and also, it is not only germany negotiating with britain, please do not forget this. there are 27. i attended the last summit back in december in brussels, and i had not been there for a long time. and i must say, because when you live in britain, it is brexit, brexit, brexit, all day and all night. there, hardly anybody talks about brexit, but they were talking about their own problems. and they are massive in europe — it's the problem about reforming the eurozone, it's the massive row they have about the refugees, so europe is pretty much in 2018 looking at itself, and not so much at britain. much of the rest of the world looks at merkel as a kind of rock, and they yearn for her continuance. not in germany, though! is the rest of the world wrong to have this much faith? funnily enough, tomorrow, it is the 13th time that she will hold the new year speech. it isn't quite the queen's christmas message but it is a very solemn institution at the end of the year to have an outlook to the next year,

and it is her 13th time she's doing this. but i think as much, the germans are a bit tired of her. but she, as you rightly say, she sees herself as a rock. you have trump, you have brexit, you have wars, so she sees a duty of serving the country another mandate. that is very interesting. stefanie, you have mentioned trump, you see, excellent. we cannot avoid that either! let's turn to that. because, in the us, analysts are already speculating about the possible results of the mid—term elections. could an upset be on the cards for president trump and the republicans — particularly in the lower house of representatives where all 435 seats are up for grabs. those elections, of course, are not until november so much could happen before then in the unpredictable white house. stryker, perhaps we shouldn't be thinking about elections — it's a long way away. she we be thinking more right now about robert mueller in the first

part of 2018? well, we can think about mueller and clearly, that is hugely important. however, there is this almost sort of incredibly narrow view of the trump administration in terms of its troubles as being robert mueller and russia, and trump—russia, trump—russia, trump—russia. i don't think that is a terminal problem, frankly. for trump himself? yeah. you think he will survive? i think he will survive, yes, i do. ithink, however, think it is a distraction. but i feel like it has been more of a distraction in the past than it will be in the future. and i think that in the future, because of the elections that will occur in november, and also because he is hugely unpopular i mean, in percentage terms, he is historically unpopular at this stage in his presidency. the lowest approval ratings since records began. therefore, having spent his first year as a — being forced to be pretty much a traditional conservative

republican in his policies — not in his actions, but in his policies... you mean, with the tax cuts going through and those sorts of policies? absolutely. you have not seen trump unchained, and trump unchained is trade war. trump unchained is even more sort of a change of social policy in the united states. he has made huge changes in the judiciary, which hardly any of us notice or talk about, but hundreds and hundreds ofjudges coming in who represent a very, very different point of view to the one that has prevailed, say, in the last decade or so. and i think that because he may see the next election as a kind of deadline, he may see that these nine, ten, 11 months are super important for — in terms of making things happen that he wants to happen. i mean, you say we have not seen him unchained. that is a striking phase.

do you mean...? what is...? by that i mean... is he going to be? he has been surrounded by people, he has been hemmed in by the people around him. not — not — i don't mean — i think we put too much credence into his tweets, we put too much weight into his tweets. you have to look at what he has actually done, and it has not been very much. and one reason is because he is really blockaded by a kind of establishment, but i'm not sure that that establishment can hold. but you are talking about internal policies. when we look at his foreign policy, it is provocative and it is a disaster. we don't know how he is going to handle the north korean crisis. i believe he was actually cornered here.

he promised to change the regime, or to bomb north korea, or actually to put an end to these ballistic missiles or nuclear tests. it could not. he failed to do so completely. when it comes to the middle east, in syria, he was defeated. the soviet union — or sorry, russia — have the upper hand in syria and most of the middle east, so when we talk about his latest move to actually to move the american embassy from tel aviv to jerusalem, it has creating huge problems in the middle east. so the american image is actually very, very, very damaged by this move. so internally, maybe he actually reduces the unemployment rates, maybe he improves the economy, but outside as america as a superpower, i believe it is losing a lot under trump. yeah, i think that is true. even though i am jewish and i'm a supporter of israel, i thought that was an absolutely gratuitous gesture, the idea of moving the embassy tojerusalem — especially as he said as it cannot happen for a couple of years anyway, we would have to construct

a new embassy. and i thought, what on earth is the point of that? the only point it seems, to me, is it isjust to do with the political strategy over iran. because iran is the chief sponsor of hezbollah and hamas in the middle east, and the anti—israeli forces. and i think that he was trying to show — if there was any logic to this at all — he was trying to show that iran is not the powerful player that it pretends to be in the region. so if there was any logic to that move, that is what it was. but i actually think that his foreign policy is so ultimately isolationist and protectionist that what he is doing is removing — or claiming to be removing — america from the world stage, officially. but then on the other hand, he makes these very aggressive moves about north korea. and rex tillerson, the secretary of state, seems to be running a completely separate foreign policy, so it is difficult to tell what their intentions are. internally, he has accomplished very little. the tax bill was the first legislative success. although, as you say, the appointment of domesticjustices is very important and that can

actually change the social policy of the country. and those are a lifetime appointments. yes, that's right. that's right. but janet, you know, he is actually, he is trying to corner iran, he is trying to besiege iran, but he is helping it, actually by these moves, by his foreign policy. i did not say it was clever! by enhancing the role of iran in the region, enhancing the russian role also, or supremacy, in the middle east. well, but 0bama paved the way for that. i mean, 0bama just left the field to russia in syria. that was the most appalling foreign policy mistake in living memory, probably, and having inherited that situation, i don't actually think that you can blame the trump white house all that much for russia's hegemony in the region. we are talking so much about foreign policy and to your point standing in the world reputation, all the things you described, but ultimately, people in other countries are not voting for him, and that's not who has a vote come november. no, his policies seem to be based, because there is no coherence

really, but they seem to be based on two things. his own instincts, the way he has always operated. and also, the base, this group of people. it has translated from arabic into al-qaeda. it is all about the base and what he promised them. that is the jerusalem think he promised it during the campaign. it does have something to do with the power play with iran. there was a kind of logic. that is interesting, it takes us on to broadening our discussion. even as we go to air in the last few days, there have been striking scenes in iran, with thousands of people taking part in anti—government protests. in the last few days there have been striking scenes in iran,

with thousands of people on the streets taking part in anti—government protests. where could this lead? and there are numerous other pressure points in the world in 2018 — north korea and its testing of ballistic missiles, and what of so—called islamic state, after it was driven out of its raqqa heartland. the protests in iran primarily about the economy, where could they lead ? actually it is more than the economy. the economic situation is very difficult in iran, definitely the prices are going up dramatically, iran under punishment by the united states, by europe, but i believe also people would like to have more important moves to improve that standard of living in iran itself. you have opposition. the protest happened again five years ago, so we don't know yet whether this will be a huge uprising, a huge protest, whether they will succeed to change that ruling elite in iran.

we don't know yet. but now we have two kind of protests. the opposition of the government who are saying we don't want to be involved in lebanon, we don't want to be involved in palestine, we don't want to be involved in syria, we want to concentrate on iran itself. but you also have a counter protest, which is supporting the government. this is the problem. now, are we going to see clashes between the two sides, and is it going to last longer than many people anticipated is not until now, there is no blank cheque. but what happened in syria, for example, or iraq or egypt oryemen, until now, you know, there are about 50 people arrested. the iranian regime is very

irrational. we have to wait and see. but iran will be the major player in that coming year. they will be there. lebanon, they will be there. they are a key player. how do you think the balance of power between saudi arabia and iran will shape up? a few days ago there was a report on israeli television saying that trump and netanyahu struck a deal in order to launch a huge campaign against iran to deprive it of nuclear progress, and to deprive it of ballistic missile. they have a secret

a deal in this field. it means the coming year will be crucial. the saudis are in the american camp. the saudis sense that iran is a dangerous enemy. they look at things from that angle. i believe look at iran in the coming year, it will be a very major player. they managed to wind in syria they have a huge influence in iraq, and they are also having a huge influence, a war by proxy, in yemen. so they are a major player. and the us administration's role in that? it's role at this point seems to be very much on the side of the saudis, and donald trump's foreign policy seems to be motivated, among other things, that anything

that barack 0bama did, he will not do. he is very anti—iran. steve always had this thing for iran. they have been the main sponsor for terrorism, there is a justification for being critical of the iranian regime, and particular of not wanting them to get nuclear weapons. but it is the idea of a huge conflict between iran and saudi. what you want to try to do is to prevent that from happening. but what is the alternative? to go to war against iran? it has a huge arsenal of missiles, also it has military wings like hezbollah in lebanon, so they can actually create a lot of problems. that is why the europeans are very reserved when it comes

to iranians policy. there is a nuclear deal, signed after a brutal and lengthy negotiation. now, trump says he will not accept this. what is the alternative? there is scepticism about this deal, about whether it would prevent iran from getting nuclear capability. so there is a legitimate and justifiable school of thought that says the iran deal was a mistake, and that was donald trump's premise. but nuclear organisations are monitoring iranians activities and they gave iran a clean sheet. they said they abided with the treaty completely. they did not break the agreement. the europeans supported that point of view, so why donald trump is actually trying to bang the drums of waragainst iran,

this is the problem. it is also a problem for europe, it will be a problem for them to say they will stick to this deal because this is causing another confrontation between europe and the us. because europe is so divided on many things, it will once again highlight their weakness. i am sorry, i must cut you off. as we approach 2018, we did want to close with a thought from all of you about other matters that we have not touched on. 2017 was striking for so many things, but particularly for the #metoo campaign. helpful to women in so many ways, all the accusations around harvey weinstein. i am interested in your different perspectives. where does #metoo go in 2018? does it continue to gather steam, does it help women in some countries

more than others? it has been such a seismic shift this year. whether or not it continues with the sort of fervour that it has had, i honestly don't know, it is hard to say. but it is clearly such a powerful force. this means a lot for trump. this could be, even if it does not persist as a huge force for the next several years, by the time we reach the next election in the united states, i think the american woman voter could really determine trump's re—election, or not. for him, it is such a powerful thing that i think it will emerge again in all kinds of different ways, including at election time. that is really interesting. we all remember what he said on that tape, and still got elected. yes, what is important

about everything to do with the sexual harassment scandal is awareness. women are more aware that they should not accept things that some men who are in of power might do to them, and that is important. but it does come in waves. this is not the first time. we had this in germany five or six years ago. in brussels there were scandal. the question is on the ground, how much does it really change? i am not so optimistic about it, especially because of trump. how was somebody elected who is such a misogynist? and now you say this could want him. i am not sure this will happen. —— haunt. i am not sure this will happen. women in america have voted for him, despite his attitudes towards women. i don't get it. i will give you an example of tunisia. i was told by the president of tunisia, i was elected by women. without women votes, i would not be president. they are very strong

and they managed to counter radical islamic groups. they are a power of change. i believe this is a good example. i think any women power should also look at the middle east, look at the third world and try to help. women can be very perfect live as a tool of change in these parts of our world. i am optimistic. i think they will achieve more. janet, are you optimistic? about what?! gender change? i would agree that it comes in waves. in the history of gender politics in the lifetime, in the history of gender politics in my lifetime, it is difficult to translate it into politics. women do not vote as women, they vote as wives, partners, mothers, you know, grandmothers. they vote for their families.

if they are working class women, they are more concerned to the putting food on the table than breaking the glass ceiling. there is class distinction between highly educated women and less privileged women. i don't think this will translate into electoral consequences, though it may have very different social consequences. happy new year to all of you, and to everybody watching. that's it for dateline london for now. let's see what emerges in the new year. good morning, and a happy new year to you.

a windy day to start the new year. the worst of the rain first thing in the morning with this area of low pressure with strong gusty winds to the south coast. another low further north bringing frequent showers to western scotland and northern ireland. before it seeks to southern scotla nd ireland. before it seeks to southern scotland and continues to affect northern ireland for the second half of the day. on tuesday, a fine but chilly start. when the spreading to all areas. that mobile picture is really what we get for much of the

week ahead. 0ften really what we get for much of the week ahead. often very windy. turning colder on friday. welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. my name is duncan golestani. our top stories: big ben bongs! london sees in the new year in style. 30 tons of fireworks light up the sky above the river thames. spectacular celebrations sweep the globe. dubai stages a record—breaking laser show at the world's tallest building, the burj khalifa. a defiant new year message from north korea. kim jong—un warns he's "always within reach" of the nuclear button. after four days of unrest, iran's president defends people's right to protest, but he warns violence and vandalism won't be tolerated. and in the uk, a huge fire in liverpool forces part of the city centre to be evacuated. no—one's been injured, but hundreds of cars are destroyed.