crises that continue to engulf the trump administration. and finally the quartz website looks at the downside of new year's eve celebrations saying that when it comes to nursing a hangover, you're essentially on your own. according to new scientific research the effects of alcohol depend heavily on our genetic and physical makeup. with me is dr stephanie hare who's an independent political risk analyst. welcome back. were leading with the gulf news and the death toll climbs to 12 as iran unrest worsens. these demonstrations, protest that have come out of nowhere, we think over the price of eggs rising but they have spread, haven't they? the triggerfor this we think have spread, haven't they? the trigger for this we think is that the government unveiled a budget in december and the budget spares the

state organisations and religious institutions of the country from the austerity imposed on ordinary citizens. you are right to point out we have a high an lemon and high—end elation and iranians are not yet seen the benefit of the deal they made two years ago. it has yet to trickle through and it has come to a crunch point. we had president rouhani say that he welcomes protest but at the same time the security forces are clamping down. yes. throttling messaging platforms as well such as telegram which has basically been shut down. that's how they were co—ordinating and getting news out to the rest of the world. it is difficult us to know what is happening there at the moment. an interesting dynamic emerging there. and to see where it is all going to go because we know from history that the last protest nearly a decade ago we re the last protest nearly a decade ago were clamped down upon heavily and

hundreds of people were imprisoned then. will be the same this time? president trump intervened on twitter saying the iran is failing on every level. he says it is time for a change and iran says it is none of his business. what is different about this particular episode is that unlike what happened in 2009, there is no clear leadership of these protests. we don't even know what people want is yet to be it could be a case of if there was a way to tweak the budget and give people relief, that may work. it is difficult to predict something like this i think it is probably something like this i think it is pro ba bly less something like this i think it is probably less about intervention from a foreign power or twitter commentary than about easing economic pain. talking about fatal stabbing is here in the uk, specifically in london with a spate of attacks over new year's eve

taking the death toll in the capital to 80. a huge number. why is the number so to 80. a huge number. why is the numberso high? to 80. a huge number. why is the number so high? interesting as i remember back when they were saying that the height of knife attack was 2008 and now there has been a resurgence that it had dipped and now it is rising again. it tends to be young men in urban areas. it happens across the country and so far in london the mayor has struggled to bring it under control. it isa struggled to bring it under control. it is a top priority for him. we don't yet know what has led to a. there seems to be a problem with understanding the cultural causes of it and until that happens, putting posters are and people who are trickle of the response they putting posters up is not going to work, we need to get into schools and into communities and try to understand theissues communities and try to understand the issues to deal with it right at the issues to deal with it right at the root cause of it all. and also the root cause of it all. and also the head of the metropolitan police of london say they need more police

resources . of london say they need more police resources. i think it is interesting that we had that spike in 2008 the drop and is now rising again. what has changed ? drop and is now rising again. what has changed? moving on to the financial times and an alarming headline. growth drops to 1.5%. something this group of economists do it every year. what you make of the figure? the office for budget responsibility in the country said it was 1.4%. is a disaster? japan is something like 1.3%. italy would be the same. france's1.7% and germany 1.8%. the uk is in the middle and there is the great guns open course —— great unspoken cause of this, and thatis —— great unspoken cause of this, and that is brexit. interest rates are rising and consumers are aware. there is a high level of debt so people are being more cautious and

it will be about how the brexit negotiations are perceived. if they go well, business will continue to invest and we will have a stronger performance. if it looks like they are going off the rails, that will see a sluggish performance. they say they expect exports to rise. that is nothing to do with the uk, that is to do with the global economy which looks like it will pick up in 2018. uk exporter ‘s can benefit from that. what do you think of war mean for people and the money in their pockets? you spoke about high household debt and interest rates. it will be interesting when we get the christmas spending figures to see what impact that has had. i suppose that is what affects ordinary people, how much do they feel they have in their pocket to spend on ordinary items? exactly. it depends on who we talk about. moderate wage growth and we think that will bump up inflation. that is why they bumped up the interest rate. the bank of england is playing

with a few different levers and consumers will need to respond in kind. if you have a high level of debt you will probably rein in spending. totally different for business investment. they will have a different perspective. that will be about continuity and what we are seeing, probably by may of this year, in regards to brexit. the next five months will be crucial. looking at the south china morning post. the impact that donald trump has had on the us economy. when he came into office this time last year there we re office this time last year there were so many office this time last year there were so many doom mongers saying it would be catastrophic for the us economy. what has played out here? this tries to look at what effect donald trump has had. this tries to look at what effect donald trump has hadli this tries to look at what effect donald trump has had. i see a parallel was our first story in iran. it depends on who we are talking about in the economy. us economy is doing well if you are already rich. wonderfulfor them,

wonderfulfor business already rich. wonderfulfor them, wonderful for business business loves donald trump. here's the republican party and is all about rushing taxes. the bill theyjust pastis rushing taxes. the bill theyjust past is in favour of the wealthy. for a surge past is in favour of the wealthy. fora surge in past is in favour of the wealthy. for a surge in crewe, those invested in the stock market, making deals and making business investment, donald trump is wonderful. for the rest of the country, people are struggling, the middle class, the working poor, those who do not have access to healthcare. that's not what we see in this article. this article is focused on wall street. there is a disconnect from the rest of the country. doesn't explain what impact or otherwise donald trump has had on the economy? whether the good news on the market front is anything to do with policy or are they mutually exclusive? it is a salutary lesson for anyone doing political risk. he makes so much noise and generates so much his but really, is

the economic performance more about how the rest of the global economy is doing? price of oil, emerging markets, they are expected at 5% growth this year. what is important? may not be as much as we think about donald trump and far more about macro economic factors and things over the long—term. macro economic factors and things over the long-term. is that a good thing? i plead the theft, as americans say. we will see what 2018 hold he has been quiet on the tweeting front so far. a funny story here about hangovers. many people will have been nursing those yesterday and this story says that over the years, decades, yesterday and this story says that overthe years, decades, hundreds yesterday and this story says that over the years, decades, hundreds of yea rs over the years, decades, hundreds of years there have been all sorts of suggestions for dealing with a hangover and the best way to do it. and this article says it is all a load of tosh. we all seem to have a friend who seems to have a fantastic

night out and feels fine the next day so... i think prevention is better thank you. is the issue that it has nothing to do with the cue it has to do with your own body and how much you have drunk? yes. different people metabolise alcohol the different rates. and a difference between things by wine and spirits. you are also dehydrating, that is a fa ct you are also dehydrating, that is a fact that. do you need more water? have an aspirin before bed? how about lining the stomach before you go out? that idea never appealed to me. thank you for watching. from me and the rest of the team, goodbye for now. there is some stormy weather on the way for the british isles in the week ahead. winds often touching up to gale—force, widely across the british isles, and some heavy rain to contend with, too.

ahead of all that, actually quite quiet this morning. light winds overnight and clear skies mean for some of us it could be a frosty start. but we will then quickly watch this band of rain winging its way into the west, so the fine weather not set to last. a dry start, though, across eastern scotland, with some early sunshine. cloudy already, though, in the west, and some rain pushing in. a wet rush hour for northern ireland. still i think, at 8:00am, largely dry across northern england, but rain affecting many parts of wales, and also pushing into the south—west. the wind picking up across the midlands and the south—east. we'll start to see the rain pushing its way through here pretty quickly through the morning. and chances are, if you start the day with rain, your prospects will look a lot better by the afternoon, whereas if you start fine, quite a wet spell to come for you by lunchtime, maybe even a wintry spell across the northern hills of england and scotland, as this weather front quickly whips its way across the british isles. strong winds accompanying it, too, but lighter winds through the afternoon, and there should be some spells

of sunshine too. quite mild, as well, in the south. but the quieter weather very short—lived. here is our next low, waiting to come spinning in from the atlantic, overnight tuesday into wednesday. this is quite a vicious little feature. it could even bring even severe gales to a central swathe of the british isles. it'll be accompanied by some heavy rains, as well. those winds could be damaging, and even as the low starts to pull away on wednesday, behind it, we continue with strong winds, and the showers that get sucked in behind the low. very squally affairs — some heavy rain, hail and thunder. and i think quite a chilly feel in the wind, despite temperatures still managing to make it into double figures to the south of the british isles. and then, well, we'lljust continue really along the same line. as we look at the remainder of the week, perhaps a little bit quieter briefly first thing on thursday, and then another low, which is going to basically cover the british isles for the latter part of the week. some more rain to come, more strong winds, and then potentially, at the very end of the week, turning colder. thursday, wettest and windiest towards the south and west.

perhaps some drier and brighter weather towards the north—east, somewhat chillier here, however. and then friday, well, for all of us, strong winds. there'll be some heavy rain, as well, perhaps the worst of the winds across the central region of the british isles. but no matter where you are, i think, no escaping the stormy weather in the week ahead. hello, this is breakfast, withjon kay and rachel burden. back to work but at a higher cost. from today, rail passengers face the biggest fare—rise in five years. many season tickets have gone up by more than £100, as campaigners warned that people were "being priced out of getting to work". good morning from london bridge station, where i will speak with the boss of network rail and passengers about what the increases are going to mean for people. good morning. it's tuesday, january 2nd.

also this morning: the foreign secretary borisjohnson calls for a "meaningful debate" as protests in iran flare for a fifth day. investigations continue into the seaplane crash that killed