hello and a very warm welcome to dateline london. i'm jane hill. this week we look at the situation in iran after protests in many cities and we ask is president trump damaged by his former chief strategist‘s allegations of treason? my guests this week: bronwen maddox from the think tank the institute for government, previously with the times and the economist. the irish writer and broadcaster brian o'connell. the american writer and broadcaster michael goldfarb who also brings us the podcast frdh. and iranianjournalist and editor of kayhan—london nazenin ansari. welcome to you all. the united states has been rebuked

by some other members of the united nations‘ security council for calling an emergency meeting to discuss the recent anti—government protests in iran. china and russia say the unrest isn't a threat to international security, and russia accused the us of abusing its position. demonstrations and counter demonstrations filled the streets for many days, in numerous cities. more than 20 people have died and hundreds have been arrested, from your assessment, to what extent is this something we have seen before, in iran, what you shall take? this protest, first of all, is based in the grassroots, more widespread because there are certain strands of grievances and suffering that is all coalescing into one trap. the feeling that the government and the system cannot answer the aspirations and the hopes

and the needs of the people. we have seen this protest, this was nothing new, as far as the protest itself was concerned, we have seen this since 2013. rohane was elected with the intention of improving the standing in the world of iran and the economic situation, but then they continued, structural problems remain, the banking system, a lot of banks went bankrupt, the pension system broke, in the meantime, teachers were not paid, labourers were not paid, factory workers were fired from theirjobs, because factories have closed. from an economic and financial perspective, yes, it is hurting the ordinary account holder and pensioner. 55% of the population of iran is working age, above 25.

very young population. yes, very young population, what has happened is the government has not been able to really make things better. that is why they took off as they did, specifically, two events happened, prior to this, in the past month. number one, the budget was published by mr rouhani and this time for the sake of accountability, and transparency, he publicised the amount of money allocated to religious institutions from the budget. these institutions and foundations already receive ridges —— religious alms from the people, already they do not pay taxes, yet their allocation increased in this budget. at a time when standards of living was falling. yes, and then at the same time, increased the budget of

iogc. these forces are becoming more involved in syria, with hezbollah, paying them daily, billions going out per month, from iranian budget, to finance the war in syria, in lebanon, hezbollah‘s allocation. another event that happened in the past month, two earthquakes in iran, over 700 in total, quakes in iran in the past month. that is a lot. iran sits on a fault line, and the nuclear policy has not been questioned in the streets but they are asking, my god, why hasn't there been any safety reports issued, why can't we know where these nuclear reactors are, all of

these have been given hand to hand for each other, which has international implications. is it that the implications that should be discussed at the un security council? this is a mistake by the us, things that they have legitimately brought to the un, principally the nuclear programme, which is a matter of international security, and the security council was reluctant to look at it but they have taken steps over the years, and that is absolutely proper use of it. the us would be much better advised to sit and let this play out because it risks antagonising people who might... people who do not want to be associated with the us but want to see these changes. what you're looking at, as has been powerfully described, is people rising up

and saying, just on economic grounds, standards of living, what it is like to live in iran, we are fed up with the way the regime is handling this. all kinds of things that the us does have an interest in, money going out to hezbollah, and so on, you have people arguing from the most powerful positions possible, they resent the money going out of the country, people questioning it. the us should sit back and let this gather steam, which it probably will. what we will talk about that. what is interesting is the us, just briefly, i know we will talk about it later, the us has no idea. this is before the trump administration, the us has had very bad understandings, going back to 1979, when the revolution first happened and american diplomats were taken hostage. of what the internal political dynamics are in iran. this is not the first time this has happened, it happens almost every ten years.

nazaneen will tell me, 1999, a major student uprising at tehran university that was violently suppressed by some of the fathers of the people who were in this now, in the militia then. and then 2009, after the election was nullified and a more liberal man had been elected who is still under house arrest, and what i see is a pattern — every time the regime realises it has to liberalise a bit, the problems with liberalising a bit, in iran, or any authoritarian state, is you get people's hopes up and then you cannot deliver. some of what we are seeing now is what was going on in 1999 and 2009, people thought, we have signed the jcpoa, the iran nuclear deal, so we will get some benefit now. because all of our assets overseas are being unfrozen.

easier trade to carry on. and it is not coming through, and after two years they are fed up and they come into the street. and bronwyn is right, america should not be involved because when america... all these american administrations have forgotten what they ever knew, if they ever knew it, iran is a... iranians are profoundly patriotic, not nationalistic, but patriotic. they want to sort out their own problems, they do not want intervention, the less said from the outside, the better. do you see it as an internal problem, a lot of it economic, but more besides? it seems, looking at it from afar, it does seem that it is not like the 2009 incidents that centred around what was perceived as an unfair election process, and it's far more widespread and economically based. and the us can't win no

matter what it does. back in 2009, i seem to remember, barack 0bama tried to be nuanced in what he said. he was criticised for not saying enough when it happened, and then too much a week or two later, when the crackdown came. they cannot win. one thing, probably, that the united states could do, is, and i think this would be very useful if donald trump decided to do it, although i won't be holding my breath, would be to lift the ban on travel from iran, his ban that he initiated over several muslim majority countries. that would help. it would back up what he says in his tweets, talking about freedom loving people and helping people get their own freedom. i don't think it is going to happen but either way, it is not going to get on the security council

agenda and the us cannot win on this one. i think there's a few differences between 1999, differences between 1999, 2009 and now. in 1999, it was only students and it was freedom of expression. you can actually chart, you know, a rise of the movement itself, from 1999 to now. in 2009, it was a single issue, and it was within the government. this time, it is not so anymore — it is very widespread. but one thing that we understand that they are asking, the activists, everyone, they are asking for open lines of communication. because the first thing that the regime did was close down social media, telegram, snapchat. .. controlling the internet... because that is how they communicate. that's one thing they did. the next thing, they started beating them up, and they started

saying they were cracking down, then they started their own demonstrations. bringing their own people out. like entering into a football stadium with one team playing. at the moment, what the united states can do, and has expressed that it will do is open these lines of communication, provide access to internet. and the demonstrations we have seen thus far, despite the number of arrests, is your best guess that this will have any impact at all on the country's approach to syria? you mentioned hezbollah, does it change anything? it will not pull iran back from involvement in those conflicts, where it is very invested, notjust in the scraps of the moment but in trying to build its zone of influence right across the region, what has been called a shia crescent. this is a dangerous game for the us to play because it risks inflaming

the sunni—shia, saudi versus iran conflict that has been called a new cold war, it is not very cold at all. i think it cannot help but begin to have some effect on the regime. it will not change, the resolve of the islamic republic is the islamic republic is to defeat united states, to defeat israel. they do not even want to acknowledge that israel has a right to exist. will it change from these red lines? obviously not. do the people realise it, that this is the way it is going to be? it is not for the international community to acknowledge that this will be the same, do not expect any change from the islamic republic, specifically not in

the international sphere. that is why it is an international issue. interesting, we will see where it goes, whether there is further protests. let's talk specifically about the united states as well. there's been a swirl of claim and counter—claim around the white house this week, with a new book by the us journalist michael wolff suggesting numerous staffers around president trump believe he never wanted the top job, and isn't up to it. his former chief strategist steve bannon is reported as telling wolff that meetings between trump's son and russian diplomats was treason. donald trump did try to get this book banned, he tried to get the publication delayed... does that tell us anything? is this a storm in a teacup? i don't think it's a storm in a teacup. you expect these books six weeks after the end of the administration, however it ends, whether it is the impeachment or he serves the full eight years,

doesn't matter, this is the tell—all we have all been waiting for, except we didn't have to wait! much of the book, from the extract i have read, has been reported elsewhere, it isjust that names have been put to anonymous sources, and it is organised in a titillating and very amusing way. i think what the book does show is that the war for trump is never—ending, one of these bosses whose decision is the last person who spoke with him. whatever he said, that is my decision. steve bannon, the republican party trying to get his ear, initially steve bannon had his ear and then he lost it. steve bannon has allowed this to go forward, to say that the son of the president, donald

trumer., is going to be cracked like an egg oi'i national television by robert mueller, the special prosecutor looking into the matter. that is burning your bridges with a flame—thrower! but what is interesting to me is the way the republicans have dealt with this so far. their initial response was to demand the justice department look into the clinton foundation. they are backing their man. one of the interesting quotes, it comes from mitch mcconnell, you can correct me if i'm wrong, donald trump will sign anything i put in front of him. that's crucial, they have the most important thing they wanted, which was this extraordinary tax reform bill, which cuts corporate taxes which will not necessarily mean higher wages for people, it will mean bigger dividends for shareholders, cutting taxes on the most wealthy in american society with tiny amounts coming to the kind of people who backed donald trump all the way. the republicans think, we have won him,

we have pulled him into our camp, steve bannon thought he would pull him into the nationalist camp... i will get in trouble for this, the white supremacist camp, blood and soil nationalism, the new way forward for america, making america great again... i think the republicans feel they have won him over and they have a sense of control but the other thing the book tells us is that this guy really cannot be controlled because he has no impulse control himself. and i think that is probably the most important thing of the book, it does reveal how this guy's mind, such as it is, works, we should all be paying attention to that. in this era of fake news, he says he coined the phrase, michael wolff himself is a colourful character. i was interviewing a trump supporter and he said, you have to second source most of these things, at the bbc, these sources do not have two sources, these quotes, and so you cannot rely on it. what is the average reader meant to take away from this, can they trust it?

i think they can trust the overall picture, because it stands together as a picture, a narrative, of how the white house is working, and as michael says, a portrait of this extraordinary president. whether you can trust any individual seed, is a question. there are real questions about michael wolff's technique generally, which is to write it as if he were there even when he was not, so to take things he has done from interviewing people, second or third hand, writing it as if he was there. that has been a question right the way through. he has had some of the key people, people like steve bannon, standing up and not withdrawing them. the only significant kind of protest we have had is tony blair saying, i did not say that about the british spying oi'i trump. no one else has rushed out to say i'm disowning that quote. we have not had that quote. the picture hangs together. what hangs there is a portrait of donald trump, as

michael is saying, a man so paranoid he will eat only mcdonald's because he doesn't want to be poisoned, of the kind of very odd mistrust between him and his family members, the distance between him and his wife, advisors both clamouring to be close to him, to impress their views on his mind and being contemptuous of him. that hangs there but there is also stings in there which have some life, one, the allegations of money—laundering against members of the trump coterie. that has some legs. the other one, allegations about his mental health, questions about whether he is suffering from dementia because of the repetitions he goes in for. and this instability of decision—making, those have some legs. to his core base, again, they will say, this is the establishment out to attack somebody they do not like. apparently this book is selling very well in his base as well but it is not going to change their minds. it confirms, as you have said, more or

less what we already know, that the white house is dysfunctional... all the comments about trump's mental health have been said by, whether on or off the record by rex tillerson, by rupert murdoch, by hr mcmaster... a couple of others as well. these people have all said this already, we know this. it's confirmation of something that should be quite worrying, yes, but i don't think there's anything new in it but it will sell a lot of books. when you come to talk about amendment 25 and the removal of a president or you're talking about impeachment, you're into a completely different thing, it takes a long time, it is primarily a political process, involving a vote of congress.

we're not there at the moment. but it's interesting to have the confirmation of something that we've been discussing on this programme for quite a long time. does it have any long—term impact? he has got things through that he promised, tax cuts mentioned, that was a promise, the paris climate accord, supporters will say he is delivering on what he promised on the campaign trail. yes, i mean, the tax bill you referred to, that counts as achieving something, despite having a white house that the president cannot focus on details, at least this bill was passed, biggest tax success for an administration. you've had the fightback against isis in syria and iraq, the us has increased influence in iraq, iraq is not right now with iran at all points.

so there are positives that have happened, but the potential for other positives to happen i think has decreased, in the sense that, let's take iran, again, if donald trump had a better stature among the international community, among the electorate, whatever he would say would be basically, at this time, when he asks for support, people would come, like if barack 0bama, take trump out and put barack 0bama there, with his positive approach, if barack 0bama had announced support for this policy of supporting the protests, everybody would except it. instead, we have this family dynamic going on. in the middle east, it works,

and all colleague of mine told me, they will love trump in saudi arabia and the gulf because they have been telling american presidents for years, have your children around you. a dangerous situation, jared kushner, he inherited a position in his father's real estate business, he married donald trump's daughter, and he goes off to riyad, and he spends days with mohammad bin salman, the crown prince, and out of it comes this new axis against iran, so when donald trump says, when nikki haley, un ambassador, says, we think we should have the un security council meeting, it's all part of this new axis of pressure on the regime, except they don't have anything to back it up with. the iranian machine is stronger. that's a danger to the way the world works. russia and china have vested interests in maintaining that regime. if anything, when you say iran is stronger at the moment, it is not, in the sense that financially, because it is at the stage that it is at now, it cannot maintain its... it's power... economically, maybe

not, but militarily... till now, they have been sending afghan militia, look at the amount of money that has been spent, it is upwards of 10 billion. now, this is not a point of strength for iran, and they know it as well, that is why there is dissatisfaction... do you think this pressure being brought by trump through his son—in—law and through the saudis, is that strong foreign policy? i'm not saying that for saudi, no, i'm talking about iran, two different things. it is a shallow—based policy. the significance of this book is whether it tilts the mood. i take the points that have been made, that the base is sticking with him, but the republicans now think they have what they want out of him, which is the big tax deal, and do they now have reason to distance themselves from him? midterms are coming later this year, which congress is going to watch very closely, as to what that

says about whether donald trump's base is sticking with him. we still have the big crisis of north korea hanging there, question about whether donald trump is flirting on twitter, talking about the nuclear button, there is no constitutional check on donald trump pressing that button. he could still get up tomorrow and tweet whatever he wa nts. the markets are on a role... this book may give the generals and others license to pull back a bit and possibly not carry out the orders of the president. the economy is doing well. the economy does well for some people and does not do well for others, there was not as many jobs created as forecast. i'm not sure about that. the bigger question —

donald trump is donald trump, how he got there is... people who watch this programme should really focus on that — the republican party is no longer a political party as we come to think of them in democratic societies, it is a faction. when it wins, it governs as if there is no opposition, when in opposition, it ruins everything possible so that it gets re—elected. it does not acknowledge there is a separate thing. i think we're all right. it is a transactional relationship, they got the main thing they wanted, the tax cuts. if they see other benefits in supporting trump, then they will. come june, when they look at the public opinion polling on individual house races, in 2018, they may reconsider their judgments, and basically, all senior politicians, they don't like to be

humiliated and they have long memories, all of them, and donald trump has humiliated paul ryan, and from time to time, mitch mcconnell, they swallow their pride, got their tax bill, there will come a time, i am certain, when they want to extract their price for that. thank you very much for drawing that to a close, thank you, and thank you very much indeed for being with us. plenty more to discuss next week, same time, same place, thank you for watching dateline london. hello there. it was mild that the middle of the week but all change this weekend. it's been a cold day. we have seen some sunshine. beautiful pictures sent in from cornwall. but not for all others.

there has been a weak weather front which has been a nuisance and producing rain. that comes with a north—easterly wind that has just exacerbated that cold. here is that weather front. that will continue to sink south. elsewhere, we can see the cloud is still fairly well broken the skies will continue to queer as high—pressure builds from the north. we are heading for a cold night here. the weather front takes its time to clear. not as cold here. perhaps temperatures just holding up above freezing. further north, it will be a cold night. in sheltered glens of scotland, we could see temperatures as low as —10 celsius. it will be a cold start, a hard frost likely as well with some lovely, sparkling spells of sunshine. if we get temperatures falling as low as —15 celsius it will be the coldest night for six yea rs will be the coldest night for six years a cross will be the coldest night for six years across the uk. so you have been warned. you will need to wrap up been warned. you will need to wrap up warm if you are up and off first thing in scotland. even at 9am, those temperatures struggling. we

could see minus eight celsius and perhaps not climbing above freezing throughout the day in some places. a similar story in northern ireland. blue sky across northern england as well. not as cold further south. still a noticeable breeze. it will feel chilly first thing in the morning. the winds will slowly ease and as we go through the day it will bea and as we go through the day it will be a fairly straightforward story. clear skies with sunshine and lighter winds but it is cold out there. temperaturesjust lighter winds but it is cold out there. temperatures just below where they should be by this time of year. they will peak in the afternoon and hit around they will peak in the afternoon and hitaround 0— they will peak in the afternoon and hit around 0— three celsius to the north, 4—7dc elsewhere. into monday, high—pressure influencing the story. dragging in this wind from the east so dragging in this wind from the east so it will still feel quite cold on monday. signs of something trying to come in from the atlantic. generally on monday, not looking too bad. the easterly breeze will feed more cloud and off the sea. then, as we go into

tuesday, certainly more cloud. just an indication of the winds out to the west swinging in from the south. looking milder still. take care. this is bbc news. the headlines at 5pm: president trump calls himself a "very stable genius" and the us secretary of state, says he's never questioned mr trump's mental health. and mental fitness, i and mentalfitness, i have no reason to question his mentalfitness. and mentalfitness, i have no reason to question his mental fitness. and overhaul of the parole system over the release of john overhaul of the parole system over the release ofjohn worboys is demanded by the victims's commissioners. new figures reveal women earn at least 15% less than men at a number of major companies. we are going to take you straight to camp david for donald trump is making a statement. we started, as

you note yesterday afternoon with a couple of