this is business briefing. i'm sally bundock. bumpy road ahead: the imf warns global finance chiefs not to get complacent as trade tensions threaten to derail the economic recovery. plus, paradise lost: why one of asia's top holiday destinations is banning tourists for six months. we are live on the philippine island of boracay. and on the markets japan bounces following the trump. —— trump—abe press conference in florida. that's despite a deal on trade. we start in washington where global finance ministers and central bankers are gathering for the spring meeting of the international monetary fund. they are being warned not to get complacent despite a healthy

recovery in the global economy. imf chief christine lagarde says rising tensions over trade mean the "system of rules and shared responsibility is now in danger of being torn apart." the imf is predicting global economic growth of a steady at 3.9% over the next two years. but that's only if the world can avoid a damaging trade war. consultancy oxford economics says that could knock at least 0.5% off growth next year. there's also the risk investors could be caught out by rising interest rates. the economic recovery has remained resilient despite market volatility. but investors and policymakers should not take too much comfort from today's relatively easy financial conditions. they should remaina

financial conditions. they should remain a attuned to the risks of rising interest rates, elevated market volatility, and an escalation of trade tensions. the road ahead may turn out to be bumpy. robert parker is a member of the investment committee at global wealth management firm quilvest. nice to see you, bob. good morning. give us your take on this latest sort of line from the imf on how the global economy is doing, and their concerns about that. i think they are quite right to focus on the downside, risks will stop but let's back to the headline, which is a forecast of growth at close to 4%. if we don't get a trade war and i think we will have a lot of rhetoric but in the final analysis, we won't, and if we don't have a trade war, and if we don't have a trade war, and if we don't have a trade war, and if interest rates only rise very

slowly, which i think they will, then i think, actually, that we could easily exceed that 3.9%. i think one point as well is that inflation risks are still very muted indeed. it is going up in the united states, but slowly. itv think the headline is that the growth number, the inflation environment, the interest—rate environment, that is quite benign. what about the level of debt. if you look at the deficit in the us, possibly go beyond i trillion us dollars in the next few yea rs, trillion us dollars in the next few years, that is a bit worrying, isn't it? and they point out, the imf, the issue in terms of the debt levels in china. absolutely. and you are right to focus on the increase in debt since the financial crisis nine yea rs since the financial crisis nine years ago is primarily government debt in the united states, and we are still dealing with high levels of government debt in the eurozone, in countries like italy, where there is still debt to gdp in excess of

130%. in america, the latest forecasts are that with the latest tax cuts, there will be a $1 trillion budget deficit next year. in short—term— meaning 2000 and 1819, that is not a problem. it should this growth. tax cuts in america will positively impact growth. but having said that, we may be storing up problems for 2020. —— 2018 and 2019. it is interesting that they say that the danger zone is 2020. but this is interesting. as what she said, we could have a good year ahead, what she said, we could have a good yearahead, and what she said, we could have a good year ahead, and the year that follows, but that the roof needs to be fixed while the sun is shining. because beyond that, it is uncertain. at the right. you mentioned china and the government debt. in america, it is not an issue. the problem in china is that it is debt from the old state—owned

enterprises, which are under pressure. thank you for a much bigger opinion on that, bob. and there is a lot more of that on our website. if you want to dig deeper, using do so there. —— you can do so there. let's go to india now where a shortage of banknotes this week left millions of people unable to access their money from atms or banks. it has highlighted once again the economy's huge dependence on cash. but that could finally be changing. india's largest digital payments firm paytm has seen its user base grow from 200 million at the start of last year, to 320 million today. it has also made is founder, vijay shekhar sharma, india's youngest billionaire. he's been speaking to our asia business correspondent karishma vaswani for the last in our series on asia's tech titans. cash — it's what moves the indian economy. in this country of a billion plus people, you don't really have a lot of other options.

india's youngest billionaire is trying to change that by bringing more people online into the digital age through payments. we will bring half a billion indians to the mainstream of the economy, notjust payments and bank accounts but even giving access to lending, capital of credit and insurance and so on. his company, paytm, is the number one digital payments player in india, but google, amazon and facebook have 110w joined the fray. we definitely need many more players, we definitely need many more invested dollars in this country to expand the market. my only problem is all these western companies are treating third world markets like india as a money circle market, they don't invest, they want to take the dollars and they don't invest in these countries. it's the strong conviction that has helped vijay rise well above his humble origins. it's personalfor him — he comes from a middle—class family with none of the right connections

in a country obsessed with status and pedigree. i did not do well with english language and that gave me an underdoggish feeling, and over the period have championed being an underdog, and want to be the best underdog story out of india. let's go to south east asia now — and the tropical island paradise of boracay in the philippines. the surge in tourism has put a huge strain on the island's resources and the environment. so the government of president duterte has taken a drastic step, closing it to tourists for six months, starting next week. it's a huge blow for the many businesses that rely on foreigners coming in. let's get more on this story from our correspondentjonathan head in boracay. we're sitting here in our london

studios looking at you. and it looks stunning. it is the real problem, isn't it? the pollution, the issue of so many people coming to go on holiday. yes. it is. the problem is not just the holiday. yes. it is. the problem is notjust the people who come on holiday. there are about 2 million visitors a year to an island that is six or seven gold is long and one, the white. but the tens of thousands who commute to work. not so come in the informal sector. there are thought to be more than 40,000 living here all year round. the infrastructure is not there. there are leaking sewage pipes, the main road as was congested. there is a lot of illegal building, even in areas that were supposed to be green. that is wait rodrigo duterte said he would use this great to start affecting the infrastructure. but what is baffling people as weight has been so sudden. there was talk of a six—month warning period for the local businesses to sort

themselves out and improve their in one of the record. that is what was expected. but at the beginning of the month, they were told they would bea the month, they were told they would be a total shutdown. they were not told what they could do or how to cope without income. all that has been a big shock, and they are not clear why the president felt it was necessary to be so abrupt with this drastic action. he is known for this kind of behaviour, as it were, in terms of his leadership. but is there any support or help for those that will see their livelihoods stop week? there is support. the government is providing about $40 million to help those on the lowest incomes. but it is not sure that that will cover the informal sector. huge numbers working on the beach are casual workers selling souvenirs and giving massages. will they be covered 7 we don't and giving massages. will they be covered7 we don't know. this is so sudden and there is no master plan. it is not clear how they will make tourism sustainable after the six months. it is as if the president

hasissued months. it is as if the president has issued this order and the government is tried to create policies to go around. while people he recognises that needed to be done, and some are even seen the shockis done, and some are even seen the shock is that these will galvanise reaction. there is concern about the abruptness reaction. there is concern about the abru ptness and the reaction. there is concern about the abruptness and the human cost that this will have for those who work here. thank you very much, jonathon head, joining us from the island of boracay in the philippines. now, let's brief you some other business stories. starbucks executive chairman howard schultz says he is "embarrassed" by the recent accusations of racial profiling in the company's us cafes. he told cbs news "i think what occurred was reprehensible at every single level." starbucks is closing us stores on 29 may for company—wide "racial bias training" after two black men were arrested for trespassing at a philadelphia branch last week. the uk government has officially confirmed that a franco—dutch firm gemalto will make the post—brexit blue passports. earlier, uk rival de la rue said it had abandoned its plan to appeal against the decision.

its boss martin sutherland told the bbc he remained "surprised and disappointed" by the decision. but the uk passport office said the process had been rigorous and fair. that is your business briefing. see you ina that is your business briefing. see you in a moment. now, the tv and radio presenter well—known to many of us here in the uk, dale winton, has died at the age of 62. he rose to fame fronting the game—show, supermarket sweep, during the 1990s and went on to present pets win prizes

and the national lottery. his agent said he had died at his home earlier on wednesday but gave no further details. andy moore reflects on dale winton‘s life. and here is the star of the show: dale winton! thank you so much! supermarket sweep is the show that made dale winton. but with his trademark tan and flamboyant style, he presented many other programmes for itv and the bbc, including pets win prizes. paul is a flying beetle, of easily become a —— obviously, because he has wings. graham norton says on twitter... davina mccall wrote... michael balls said... ——

ball. dale winton‘s agent said he died at home. no further details we re died at home. no further details were given. two years ago, he said he had had a bad break up, depression, and health issues. dale winton had not been on our screens so much lately, but he will be remembered at a consummate entertainer and game—show host. he will be greatly missed. dale winton, who has died at the age of 62. you are with the briefing on bbc news. here at the headlines: the us and japan say maximum pressure will be put on north korea. the leaders of the two countries hope pyongyang will agree to complete nuclear disarmament. after almost 60 years, cuba prepares for the end

of the casto era as the national assembly names miguel diaz—canel its next president. now it is time look at the stories that are making the headlines in media across the world. we begin with the japan times, and us president donald trump and japanese prime minister shinzo abe who agreed maximum pressure will be exerted on north korea to give up its nuclear weapons. the two leaders have been holding talks in florida at the us president's mar—a—lago estate. voice of america reports members of a un security team came under fire and an explosive was detonated as they tried to carry out a reconnaissance mission to a syrian town awaiting chemical weapons inspectors. the guardian says according to the imf, the world's current $164 trillion debt pile is bigger than at the height of the financial

crisis a decade ago. the ft looks at tv streaming giant netflix, which is escalating its assault on european broadcasters by sharply increasing its content investment across the continent, it plans to spend around $1 billion on original productions this year. and finally, in the times, plastic stirrers and cotton buds are to be banned alongside straws in the uk. the move, expected to come into force as early as next year,