hello, this is business live from bbc news with sally bundock and ben thompson. a bumpy road ahead: the international monteary fund warns against complacency that could derail the global economy. live from london, that's our top story on thursday 19th april. trade tenions and rising debts are of mounting concern to one of the most influental body's in globalfinance. the imf. we will look at what they are saying and what it means for you. also in the programme... no more sunshine and sand. we'll be live on one of the philippines most popular tourist spots, as the president order a sudden closure. and forfinancial and for financial markets in and forfinancial markets in europe, you see can the day has started mix,

albeit a little flat. we will talk you through the winners and the losers. and reaching another level. we'll get the inside track on how competitve computer gaming has become a multi—million dollar business, and find out why people pay not to play it, butjust to watch it. and as elon musk tells staff at tesla to walk out of meetings, or hang up on calls that go on too long, we want to know — wise words or recipe for chaos? would you walk out of a meeting when it gets too boring? let us know, just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. yes, i would walk out at the meeting, would you 7 yes, i would walk out at the meeting, would you? send your comments about that story or any others we are covering an business live. we start in washington, where many of the most important in global finance are meeting. the international monetary fund's

spirng meetings are being held amid a climate of rising trade tensions and a warning not to get complacent, despite a healthy recovery in the global econom. —— global economy. finance ministers and central bankers are also being told that the world needs to cut debt levels. imf chief christine lagarde warned recently that rising tensions over trade mean the "system of rules and shared responsibility is now in danger of being torn apart". however, the imf is predicting global economic growth of a steady at 3.9% over the next two years. but that's only if the world can avoid a damaging trade war. consultancy oxford economics says that could knock at least half a percent off growth next year. here's the imf‘s tobias adrian. the economic recovery has remained resilient,

despite market volatility. but investors and policymakers should not take too much comfort from today's relatively easy financial conditions. they should remain attuned to the risks associated with rising interest rates, elevated market volatility and an escalation of trade tensions. the road ahead may well turn out be to bumpy. sir simon fraser is a former top diplomat at the uk's foreign office and business department. nice to see you, welcome to the programme. also managing partner at flint global. let's talk about some of the issues raised. the imf very clear that things are pretty steady, a few bumps on the road but it is those bumps that can be interesting. highlight some of those, what are the risks? a mixed picture with a

positive story, but these concerns, the biggest of all is the relationship with china and the united states, the two great economic and political powers in the world on the tensions emerging between them and how it affects the whole international economic and political system. that is the big uncertainty. plus some other things, like high levels of government and corporate debt, fiscal policies. let's talk about the trade issue, thatis let's talk about the trade issue, that is the one that has been in the headlines most of late. the big trade war between the united states and china. i'll be getting to the point where this will reach any sort of resolution, or is this just a bit of resolution, or is this just a bit of grandstanding on the part of president trump to save look, i will negotiate but we need to choose a point from which to start?” negotiate but we need to choose a point from which to start? i don't think we should call it a trade war just yet but there are assertive measures being taken. it is a big skirmish in which retaliatory measures are being imposed on either side and tariffs. we don't know where it is going. i think president

bush has a point about some of china's trading behaviours and china needs to open its own market to other countries, as well. i think there is a pattern in president bush's, sorry, president trump's behaviour, which is to take a very assertive position in order to create a bit of room for him to negotiate. if we assume from that basis there will be some negotiation, i wonder where the compromises will come in. it strikes me there will have to be compromises on both sides. yes, particularly on the american side. what they're looking for is access to the chinese market, that trading practices by china, to avoid dumping of goods and they are concerned about the theft of intellectual property. there are an number ofareas of intellectual property. there are an number of areas where progress needs to be made. a brief word when it comes to the negotiation. if you're not the us or china, there is still collateral damage? the worst thing that could happen is if this spirals out of control and becomes a

bilateral tit—for—tat outside the international trade system and rules. we would all suffer because we need the stability of that system. thank you for explaining all of that. i'm sure we will speak more as this continues. simon fraser, one of the former top diplomats at the uk's business department. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news... online retail giant amazon says it has more than 100 million subscribers to its prime service around the world. it's the first time that the number has been confirmed. bossjeff bezos also hailed the roll out of its new prime now service offering free delivery within two hours. it's now available in more than 50 cities. shares in the uk retailer debenhams are down more than 8% this morning after it reported an 84.6% drop in pre—tax profits in the six months to march. it blamed february's freezing weather for the temporary closure of some stores, which left like—for—like sales down 2%.

and in a surprise move, the firm's chief financial officer that smith is to quit, to take up a post as finance boss at selfridges. australia's largest bank continued to charge fees to customers it knew had already died. a major inquiry into australian banks has heard that commonwealth bank's billed one dead client for more than a decade. the government ordered the royal inquiry after a series of scandals in the industry. an update on a story we told you quite a while ago now. the headquarters of korean air has been raided by south korean police. they're investigating claims a boss at the airline korean airlines threw water at an advertising agency executive. cho hyun—min denies the claims. she's the younger sister of the another korean airlines executive who was jailed in 2014 in the so—called nut rage scandal. their father is the compa ny‘s chairman. the island of boracay is one of the philippines most popular tourist destinations.

last year it attracted neearly two million visitors. but that's put a huge strain on the island's resources and the environment. so president duterte's government is closing it for six months from next week. there has been very little notice. our correspondentjonathan head is on boracay. just talk us through this. this is staggering that they could close the island for such a significant period of time. what are businesses making of time. what are businesses making of this? they rely on the tourist trade, don't they? totally. this island is tourism and one of the biggest earners for the country, in terms of tourism. more than 30,000 people whose jobs depend on this island, who live on this island. to be honest, they don't know what will happen. this has been so sudden. the order was only given at the beginning of this month. some are petitioning to get a month's extra

notice to prepare. it doesn't look like the president will bowl down. he is upset about long—standing overdevelopment, poor infrastructure, illegal buildings and on on treated sewage polluting the seas. they all agree something should be done but they don't know how it will work. businesses are nervous about criticising the notorious leave volatile president, doesn't like criticism. they be kfl of what they are saying. they are worried about what they will do with erin ploys, how their businesses will fail with six month shutdown. most putting a brave face on it and hoping the government will fix that infrastructure. frankly, in six months the government says it will widen the road and fixed the sewage but the real move to get boracay to be on but the real move to get boracay to beona but the real move to get boracay to be on a sustainable basis with its tourism, there is no master plan, no one sure long—term what the government plans to do. jonathan headin government plans to do. jonathan head in boracay, thank you. our correspondent, a fascinating story.

just to show you how things went in asia today. slightly higher close in japan. higher in hong kong. the dow down. asia were watching the press conference that came out of president trump's resort in florida because the prime minister shinzo abe was there with the us president and there was high hopes there might be some sort of movement and trade. of course, japan is among those countries that are at the sort of firing line when it comes to steel and aluminium tariffs. they were discussing that to a degree and there were hopes there may be some news on that. let's look at europe quickly. we mentioned one of the big losers in london, debenhams department store chain. that pre—tax profits plunging 85%. share price down about 0.8%. deutsche bank has

announced it is getting rid of its chief operating officer. her tenure is ending, should i say, by mutual agreement. that is something that was announced late wednesday. the chief executive officer's tenure came to an end last week so a lot of change at deutsche bank. those are just a few of the big stories affecting europe. and joe miller has the details about what's ahead on wall street today. after one of america's largest aluminium companies alcoa reported strong profits on wednesday, it's the turn of steel—maker nucor on thursday to reveal whether it has benefited from donald trump's tariffs on metal imports. the north carolina based firm, which was a vocal cheerleader of the president's protectionalist measures, is expected to post higher first—quarter revenue, but that could just be down to investments to boost production. injanuary, the company more than doubled capital expenditure to spend on product improvement, cost saving projects and maintenance. elsewhere, blackstone, the asset manager, reports earnings for the first three months of 2018, a period marked by volatility

in the stock market, which could have cast a shadow over its private equity business. joining us is tom stevenson is investment director at fidelty international. nice to see you. let's pick up on some of the issues that we heard in that piece. the steel tariff war ongoing. talk us through where we are in terms of that. tough talk on both sides but no real action yet. japan has not got much out of these sto kesley japan has not got much out of these stokesley president trump. i think trump is to an extent stuck in the 19805, trump is to an extent stuck in the 1980s, obsessed by the trade situation with japan back then and i think that is still at the back of his mind when he thinks aboutjapan. shinzo abe has problems back at home, he has some political scandals brewing, his popularity is very low.

from an investment perspective, it isa from an investment perspective, it is a shame because we are very keen andjapan. it is a shame because we are very keen and japan. it is coming out of the generation of defloration rates slump, it is getting some healthy inflation back and doing well. can what extent can he be given the credit for that? his three pronged attack to try and get the japanese economy back on track?” attack to try and get the japanese economy back on track? i think to quite a large extent he can take the credit for that. i think that is why people are a little bit nervous about the short—term, as his popularity rating is below 30%. if he went this year, i think it throws into a bit of confusion. in the meantime, you have noticed people's expectations in financial markets with regard to us interest rates have gone up and up? the expectation we get three more rate hikes this year is now above 80%, that is the implied probability from the financial markets. so it looks like we are getting a bit of a diverted.

the us is clearly on the tightening part. we saw very weak inflation in the uk this week on the expectation here has gone the other way. for now, thank you very much, tom. a big impact on the strength of the pound against the dollar as well. absolutely, the pound has fallen by quite a long way but it was very strong before today, this week's announcement. thank you. tom will talk us through some of the stories in the business papers later. yes, including those long meetings, they don't have to be boring. elon musk said of the meeting goes on too long, get up and walk out. what was the longest meeting you have been in? 0ver have been in? over two days. here? yes, a multiple day meeting. still to come... and reaching another level. we'll get the inside track on how competitve computer gaming has become a multi—million dollar business. you're with business live from bbc news. let's get more on that

massive 85% fall in profits at department store debenhams. the shares are down more than 8% this morning. maureen hinton is with us, she's retail research director at globaldata. staggering figures, but it is sad to say they are not unexpected? no, there has been a highlight of discounting and debenhams has taken the brunt of that. sales are in line with what they were last year but it is discounting and they have such a focus on fashion, it is really disappointing for them. you say that, but we feel debenhams has been on the back foot for a long time and if you put it with the extreme

weather, which is why they are saying they are having a tough quarter, what is the outlook for debenhams because they are warning about the year ahead ? debenhams because they are warning about the year ahead? yes, it is tough because they are making it more about beauty and it being a destination shop, which is what most are trying to do now. but because it is not a highline department store likejohn lewis, they only have a0 stores. they can make some of them look good, it is difficult to get the rest of the stores, which are lots of them have long leases on as well, up to that level. it is really holding them back. the strategy sounds great but to deliver that across the stores? also you don't get a great profit on beauty and food, clothing is where you will get most of the margin but if you are discounting at all because of the outlook, it is going to hold you back. maureen, what can they do, how

can they turn it around? there will have to look at their store estates and trying get rid of some of them. but they have very long leases. it is really probably going to the landlord and say, what can we do so we can focus on the bus stores. maureen, thanks very much. you saw it on the screen, the fall in the value of the shares. it is about seven, 7.5% so far. mothercare, there is a change at the top as well. clive while it will ta ke top as well. clive while it will take over as interim executive chairman with immediate effect. you're watching business live — our top story: the international monetary fund's spring meetings are starting in washington with a for governments not to get complacent despite a healthy recovery in the global economy.

there's also concern about high levels of debt. a quick look at how markets are faring. we have mentioned debenhams a couple of times, down around the percent level. 0ther stocks on the move, keep ni and deutsche bank,. years ago, esports was a community of video gamers playing at conventions. but that's no longer the case, it's now a huge multi—million dollar global industry appealing to different age groups worldwide. esports is actually not a physical sport, but involves competitive computer gaming. goldman sachs valued the esports industry at $500 million in 2016, and expects it to be worth a billion dollars by 2019. around 300 million worldwide tune

into esports events, and that figure is expected to rise to 500 million by 2020. 0ne organisation hoping to take advantage of the rapid rise of the industry is the british esports association, which was set up 2016 to develop the sector across the uk. the british esports association, was set up in 2016 to develop the sector across the uk and its founder is chester king. can you just tell us what esports is? it is always human against human playing games of skill as opposed to video games playing against a computer and playing games of chance. esports is human versus human competitive video game. why is that better? you are trying to beat another human, so any activity like sport, you're learning about strategy and communication and you are talking to your team—mates while

you are playing against another team. you are learning some fantastic life skills as well. we have talked about the huge growth in the industry but it has been brought about by the technology that enables that to happen, faster internets and speed, better graphics and processing, you can play from all over the world, you don't need to be in the same place. there is also another platform by twitch, which was bought by amazon. we're watching them all in action. we are all very familiar with it, especially if we are parents because we lose our children to gaming and esports, but why did you start this?” children to gaming and esports, but why did you start this? i have three children, a 17—year—old boy and two girls andi children, a 17—year—old boy and two girls and i was tracking him about three years ago and seeing what him and his friends were doing. 0nce three years ago and seeing what him and his friends were doing. once i understood all the nuances and the

different age guides for parents, i ama different age guides for parents, i am a big and passionate believer about esports but that was no central portal about what is esports, what games are good view and what are the benefits? we got a group of people together with authority from the british government. you are hardly known about is what i found this morning, my children are playing esports, one thatis my children are playing esports, one that is popular and won awards last week, fortnight, they love it. i find it hard to find information about these games, is it ok to play, what are the dangers, did they have two by things, will i be milked for my hard earned cash? your organisation would have been the place i would want to turn to, but you don't come up in my searches, i couldn't find you. we are getting there, we have only had a website for about a year. the video you just so was us for about a year. the video you just

so was us going into libraries and schools, we have just so was us going into libraries and schools, we havejust finished so was us going into libraries and schools, we have just finished a pilot in 20 schools and a few colleges. we are promoting the benefits, but in moderation. do your homework, you should do physical activity. under the uk classification, we are again. in the evening when the weather is dark it is better to play esports than it is to watch passive media or take a million photographs of yourself. we're working with the university of york doing some research and we have a lady doing a ph.d. 0ver esports at cambridge. that is a good start. the time is against us, so good luck with it all. it is a not—for—profit, british esports association, parents with gamers, take note. in a moment we'll take a look through the business pages but first here's a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. stay up—to—date with the business

news as it happens. 0n stay up—to—date with the business news as it happens. on our website we have insight and analysis from teams of editors from around the globe. we want to hear from you and get involved on iweb page. 0n twitter we are at bbc business. you can find us on facebook. business live, on tv and online. what you need to know, when you need to know. tom is back as promised. elon musk says if your business meeting is going on too long, just walk out. he is saying, don't waste time, people sit around and meetings if it is a one—hour meeting, curiously enough, it isa one—hour meeting, curiously enough, it is a one—hour meeting even if there is only 15 minutes of business that needs to be done. he is telling

people to get sensible about it, drop offa people to get sensible about it, drop off a call if you are not adding any value any more. we have all been in those situations, but it does require a bit of courage to say, this is a waste of my time. lot of people getting in touch, danny is watching in india and he saidi danny is watching in india and he said i would walk out if i was the boss, but i would lose myjob if i wasn't. james in the uk says i cannot wait to see what happens when the first person walks out of a meeting that elon musk is hosting. henry in newcastle, meetings should be held standing, no food, only water and i think their phone should be confiscated. people soon get to the important issue. it is interesting, one who said, my boss made commitments, no meeting goes on

foran hourand he made commitments, no meeting goes on for an hour and he has stuck to it, so it is a finite limit? the other thing is cut your meetings to a5 minutes so you have 15 minutes to get to your next meeting. back—to—back meetings. do you have lots of meetings in the city? everyone has lots of meetings, it is the curse of the big company. a lot of meetings go on here, editorial meetings, lots of those. it is about doing it briefly, brevity is the key here. we have got to go to a meeting ina minute, here. we have got to go to a meeting in a minute, actually. tom, thanks for being on, it is nice to see. thank you for your company. i think it is time we went, i am bored now, iam. see it is time we went, i am bored now, i am. see you later. we have the warmest day of the year

yesterday but today we will beat that. today will be up to 27, perhaps 28 degrees in the south—east of england. very warm for all others and there will be lots of sunshine right from the word go. that will continue into evening as well. across northern and western areas we have got some cloudy skies across scotland. northern ireland and down the irish sea coast. that means temperatures just a little bit, the irish sea coast. that means temperaturesjust a little bit, 1a degrees, in the far north of scotla nd degrees, in the far north of scotland but some of the cloud could come inshore across parts of northern ireland, northern england and western parts of wales this afternoon. the bristol channel, there could be a bit more cloud here. away from those areas where it could be cooler, temperatures 17 to 90 degrees for scotland. for england and wales, 2a to 27 could perhaps even 20 degrees. this evening there

will be patchy mist and fog developing across inland areas but more so around those irish seacoast into friday morning. 0vernight temperatures down to around seven, ten or 11 degrees, 13 degrees in the south—east. not particularly cold to start on friday. there will be the patchy mist and fog clearing away quickly and on friday, another dry, sunny day expected. more cloud for western scotland, outbreaks of rain moving in. temperatures, down in northern areas, 15, 16 degrees, further south 21, 26 are not as hot as today. but temperatures above the average. going into the weekend, high pressure will ease away towards the east and then we have this area of low pressure in the west. things turning a little bit more unsettled over the weekend. saturday will be fine and dry with sunshine but then some thundery showers moving in

across south—west england, pushing north into wales and the west midlands. temperatures are subdued about 15, 16 degrees. for england and wales, 22, 2a. 0n about 15, 16 degrees. for england and wales, 22, 2a. on sunday, more u nsettled and wales, 22, 2a. on sunday, more unsettled weather, persistent rain moving through northern areas, patchy rain and showers towards the south but bright and sunny spells here. 21 degrees in the london area, 23 in east anglia but cooler in the north, 12, 1a degrees in scotland and also northern ireland. hello it's thursday, it's 9 o'clock, i'm victoria derbyshire, welcome to the programme. every year, more than 8 billion plastic straws are thrown away in the uk. now they could be banned in england, along with plastic drinks stirrers and cotton buds. we know that there 5 a type of plastic that finds its way into our seas and oceans. we know that that plastic is choking our seas and oceans, causing devastation to marine wildlife. we need to take action. it's part of a plan to tackle plastic waste,

and it'll be discussed at the commonwealth heads of government conference, which starts today in london. we'll be there live from 10 — for speeches by the prime minister and the queen. a former head of the civil service calls for an inquiry into who ordered thousands of landing cards to be destroyed. they could have helped members of the windrush generation prove their right to stay in the uk.