tv Dateline London BBC News May 27, 2018 11:30am-12:01pm BST
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now on bbc news, this week's edition of dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline where, each week, some of the uk's best—known columnists debate the week's big stories with journalists whose dateline is london, as they report those events to the world beyond. this week: the irish vote to end the constitutional ban on abortion. we find out what some say is the price of brexit. and has north korea blinked first? with me are henry chu, international editor at the us magazine variety, alex deane, a british conservative commentator, agnes poirier of the french magazine, marianne, and the irish broadcaster, brian o'connell. now, ireland, once one of the most socially conservative countries in europe, has voted decisively to remove from its constitution the ban on almost all abortions. the 2:1 margin of victory to scrap
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the eighth amendment was much larger than anyone had predicted. brian, not only that, it was almost an exact reversal of the numbers in 1983 when the amendment was first introduced. how big a cultural change does the vote represent? it is huge. it reflects a cultural change that has taken place over three decades since the ‘83 referendum. driven by the obvious things like the catholic church, the whole child abuse scandals during that time and other things like social media, globalisation, and the way in which ireland itself has changed. it is three years since we had an equal marriage referendum which was passed with a similar sort of majority. the interesting thing about this — and we have to put in a caveat,
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that these are exit polls. the counting started at 9 o'clock this morning, it probably won't finish until mid—afternoon, but the strong indications are that the vote to repeal the ‘83 limitations on abortion in ireland were picked up by people in rural areas and across the age gaps as well. i saw one figure suggesting that as many as 40% of the over 65s have actually voted for its repeal. the group who were actually thought to be less likely to vote yes voted for its repeal. yes, yes, it is quite a big jump. i know thatjournalists get tied up in opinion polls — but it is quite a big jump from an opinion poll a week ago which suggested there were a huge chunk of don't—knows and the gap between people who wanted to repeal and people who didn't was shrinking rapidly, with repeal was just slightly ahead at the time. i suppose the other interesting question it raises is the relationship between church
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and state, because i was talking to a colleague who was in ireland just over a week ago who attended a holy communion service for a family member, their first holy communion, and i was struck by the fact that the priest was wearing a no badge, lecturing that people should vote no, and there were banners all over the church. i wonder what challenge this now represents to the catholic church's influence in ireland? i am not catholic myself and i do not know enough about the catholic church in ireland to really comment on that but i think brian is surely right that the recent scandals about the covering up of paedophilia is a factor. brian is right to point out that the gay marriage legislation passed with the same kind of majority, but the ability of two people to come together in union is a joyful occasion in which people can celebrate. there is no victory in abortion, and it is a sadness
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for those concerned. i think the tenor has got the tone of that a bit wrong. it is natural for people in a binary referendum to get involved in a clash about their sides but actually, it is not good that people will have abortions. any more than it will be good that people have to come to the uk to get them. the compromise was very difficult to justify. the compromise was very difficult to justify. the reality is they could get one if they came to the uk, so i think it is difficult... in other words if they have the money and ability to travel. it is not over yet, because the proposals that the legislation were there during the campaign, they were bitterly fought over, and, of course, that legislation has to now go through the dail. and that is going to be hard fought, as well. although what i would say, this is being celebrated as a joyful thing, i am not generally a fan of referendums, but at least in ireland, both with same—sex marriage
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and with abortion, they were passed by a very large majority, it seems, of the voters, whereas in my country, where abortion and same—sex marriage have been very vexed issues, they were decided nationally by the courts and that has been decided for decades, a list of abortion. now we still see it with same—sex marriage and division and polarisation. at least here, there is a groundwork for the legislation which will need to be laid for this. i think it is a different prospect from what we would in the west. the big fear is that for a lot of people who voted no, it will be liberal alongside the british model. and they want to avoid that. in the uk we started talking about how it is a threat to the mother and child and we have ended up with abortion on demand. the uk has 190,000 abortions a year. this will be a huge issue for ireland in the next few months. i think the irish have shown britain how to do a referendum. is that what you want?
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it is a large majority as well. when 70%—30%, there is no doubt. i agree with you, alex, as the only woman on that panel, abortion is not something you do lightly, it is always the result of an accident, it is not something you choose. abortion on demand, is slightly... i don't think, you know, very few women use abortion like a contraception method and what is paramount is for young women to access a safe environment where they can do it without being judged, and that is important, because ireland, i come from the only other catholic culture, the french republic is second, i think. thank god! laughter. the irony was intended. and it is wonderful to see the catholic church and religion with a big r receding from the public sphere. religion is a very intimate, a spiritual thing that should not
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invade, ithink, the public sphere. and this is what we are seeing, at least, 2018. you say that people don't use it as a form of contraception. the mantra in our country is it is safe and legal, but it is not rare. what about this question of where it now leaves northern ireland? because northern ireland, part of the uk, but it has a special status as far as abortion law, and pretty much it has to be the case that abortion is not available, you will be going to other parts of the uk if you want access it. well, yes. northern ireland, the 1967 abortion act does not apply in northern ireland, as you know, so people who want abortions on demand, to use the horrible expression, in northern ireland, will come to england orwales, and... or could now conceivably go
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to the republic of ireland. just as it was up to the people of the republic of ireland, to decide what their stance is on abortion, we must all look at this and think it must be up to the people of northern ireland. problem is northern ireland does not have a legislative body at the moment. but in the end, it should be up to them. yes, oh yes, it would have to be, and it would be even more hard fought in northern ireland by people who are deeply religious and conservative. and that is their right to do so. but as you say, at the moment, there is no government in northern ireland. jeremy corbyn, the leader of the labour opposition, was on a visit to northern ireland this week and he sparked a fair degree of controversy with his remarks. he has always been open about being a supporter of the idea of a united ireland. it is supposed to be by consent, that's in the good friday agreement, it would require a border poll.
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do you think all of these pressures building up, whether they are on the social changes coming in the republic, or indeed on the question of brexit, do they change the scope of feeling? no, i mean, the rules for a border poll as set out between the two governments are very clear. sinn fein did call for a border poll after the brexit referendum in 2016 but there is no prospect, certainly in the short—term, and certainly until the whole brexit process is completed. and i don't think, i don't detect in the republic of ireland that it would necessarily be a done deal, either. i mean, people are very concerned about the economic impact of brexit and the border and all the rest of it that will have on the irish
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economy, the thing that is paramount in most people's minds. i know that it has been said by the dup that the irish government, that there is a republican—nationalist agenda behind it. so they are stirring up the border for that reason? i don't think that's the case. and i don't detect — i think this is purely, well, a selfish economic interest on the part of the republic of ireland that they don't want their economy destroyed. the view from europe — i share your views on the short term — but i think on the longer term, i wouldn't be surprised if ireland is reunited. the way that the berlin wall fell, it would be... i would be very surprised. do you think it is comparable? i am not saying that the history of germany and the history of ireland is the same,
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i'm just talking about the process of the people... the berlin wall was keeping people in. i have the feeling, with brexit, that also, as well as globalisation, ireland is a country that has really changed in my lifetime. yes, but hang on, but a repressive communist regime built a wall and put machine guns, barbed wire to keep people in. do you think for a moment that is a good comparison? i am not comparing the british army to the soviets, at all, but i'm just saying that i wouldn't be surprised if in 50 or 100 years' time, in a long time ireland is not united. but provisions laid out in the good friday agreement stressed... this goes back to the downing street declaration, the principle of consent, and it is fairly clear that a majority — i don't know what the figures are now, but the majority of people in northern ireland do not want to be part of all ireland united ireland, so i think it is... yes, i did some research on this.
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it is a minority, but it is much more than 30 years ago. if you look at the irish people and northern irish people, there was, like, 4% wishing that the countries were reunited. now it is more like 30%. but you are forgetting about the referendum that will take place in the republic as well. of course! and that's northern ireland, and southern ireland could come to some sort of agreement is really speculating pretty far into the future. ireland's border with the uk is at the heart of the negotiations for brexit. after the uk leaves the eu next year, how will goods and people travel between them? this week, the most senior customs official in the uk said it could happen, but at a price. max fac, the preferred option of the brexiteers designed to minimise delays at the irish border, or indeed between british ports and the continent, will cost businesses between 17 and £20 billion a year. that's about twice as much
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as britain's net annual contribution to the eu budget. theresa may's preferred alternative, a customs partnership with the eu, would be a lot cheaper but has been dismissed in brussels as "magical thinking". i mean, alex, we heard that expression, we have heard it again over the weekend from michel barnier saying that really, the deal about the trade partnership is a game of hide and seek at the moment. he doesn't know what it is the british want. is it time for the british to get real and agree on what they want from that trade relationship and make the case for it? i think you have put the question very peculiarly. we do know what trade relationship we do want. the only parties talking about a hard border is the european union, which might tell you something about the kind of people we are negotiating with. dublin may have a few people sit on
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the hanson white, the british cabinet, look, britain is going to leave the eu next march. and then there will be a short transitionary period of less interiors but we still can't get from the british government a clear idea of exactly what they want. now, there are certain things for example by allowing northern ireland to stay within the customs union for certain period of time and alignments and so on that may or may not work but until the british government actually says this is what we want and this is what the entire british cabinet is behind. i'm sorry, this sort of posturing worked very well in the
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scottish referendum, when right up to it, they said it was very unclear what they wanted, it was actually very clear what the scots wanted. it is very clear that the united kingdom wants to be able to facilitate maximum possible trade with the eu withut signing... but how? what is the mechanism? we keep going around this. it is plain to me that the ability to trade across either the channel or the border in ireland is one in which there area couple of models both in norway and switzerland and improving technology... but what model does the british abinet want? the british cabinet want? we don't want to have a hard border in northern ireland. henry, do you think that evidence from the head of the hmrc made any difference to how people perceive this issue? well, i think it was a shocker, and nobody was expecting that kind of figure to be drawn out.
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some people think it was drawn out of a hat. others don't think it has quite sank in yet. whether it would have an impact on the government's negotiations, is another story. i still think regardless of what theresa may says she was, her cabinet is a divided one, and there is no agreement yet on exact how to come up with a mechanism to make this frictionless trade possible. that is a great goal, that is what they willjust strive for after we leave. but... hang on. ourfriends the our friends the french ourfriends the french inspect less than... our friends the french inspect less than... the idea that you would have to do more than that in ireland, a country in which much of the trade going across the border in northern ireland and southern ireland, and recognise that their material going across the border could be regulated with greater use is a farce. perpetuated by the eu. they have got to get real. not least when the uk says we make
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an unconditional offer on security and the eu quibbles. an unconditional offer this week to cooperate on security in the eu said no, we naturally rather... we are talking about customs borders. i would like to bring in the question of the conservative policy, and there lies the secret to brexit. party, and there lies the secret to brexit. and the key to brexit. because they get what michel barnier thinks, what is it going to be? because forget what michel barnier thinks, what is it going to be? because we have the brexiteers. they could actually trigger a no—confidence vote for may. but then what? they would like to topple may but to do what afterwards? then there is a eu summit injune and
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each time it is the same story, we need to comeup with some ideas and some planning order to bring the brexit talks further. it needs to be resolved by october, not march. because there is the whole process of ratification, which is long. theresa may came up with in a way the only proposition she could get on the table, was, can we have a second transition period and extend it to 2023, so that we can all agree? but i think it is really... the tory party has the key to this, because are they going to get rid of her? do they have a plan b? who else at the tory party and then general elections, probably. who is leading the tory party, the problem remains that they can't agree on what they want. exactly. do you think an extended transition period looks more likely now? i think it is very... i think if you can wrap it up within the life of this parliament it is far easier than not.
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but we all know that whether the deadline is march or october, i agree with you, it could be either. but whenever the deadline is, that's when the deal gets done. all eu deals are made in the 11th hour. the 59th minute of the 11th hour. this is still posturing all round. the real negotiations will happen in the final hour. there is truth in what you're saying. i have been eu summits! so many eu deals are just kicking the can down the road, but this is not a can that can be kicked down the road. politically, either for the uk orfor the eu. the italians have got a populist government forming, so what they do? the teenager does badly in his exams, bloody brits, go home and kick the can! i think there was a british former secretary who used to talk about summits as being one to show that
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summits. i think it is one where you can unpack a very large number of shirts to get through that final one before a deal on brexit. donald trump and kim jong—un, the leader of north korea, could be talking after all. on thursday, after a series of incendiary statements from pyongyang, donald trump wrote to mr kim saying their face—to—face meeting next month was off. by friday night, though, president trump was tweeting that the two countries were having "productive talks" about meeting in singapore on june 12th, as originally planned. henry, in a sense, this is a bit of a triumph for donald trump's brinkmanship? the north korean pushed him and got a bit funny, and he said it's off, and then they came running back? i think when you're dealing with a dictatorial secretive leader where it is impossible to predict what is going on, and also kimjong—un! come on! i think that is absolutely true, it is unpredictable. in fact, it is north korea that has surprised us by being
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more conciliatory. but what i think we're seeing from both sides, is perhaps a hastiness that hasn't born really good fruit, because then it's be the groundwork for any kind of meeting. only a few months ago, donald trump was talking about fire and fury. suddenly he turns around and says that he is going to meet the leader of north korea. but at the same time, we have got another secretary of state, a second one, within little over a year. the state department has been gutted of many diplomats. we don't have an ambassador to south korea yet. while i think there is desire both kim jong—un and trump to meet, the june 12 date, i don't think that'll happen. i think then it's going to need a bit more ground work. they were talking, i think in washington, that there were already officials
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going to be on their way this weekend to try and lay the ground work. but it is a tight schedule? it is too tight. we don't think about china and japan. china has breathed a sigh of relief, because this is a long—term thing. nuclear diplomacy... it is not like real estate. kim is not a competing property developer, it's not how you do this. you prepare it, and behind the scenes, the negotiation is probably better, and we should switch off the twitter account for at least the time of the negotiations, if we want to go that far. what about the big question of visitors denuclearisation? the north koreans have made significant concessions, already. allowing journalists to go in and
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see as they dismantle things. allowing journalists to go in and see as they dismantle things. this is real progress. admittedly, it would be far better to have nuclear experts instead ofjournalists, no offence! but never the less, that is significant progress. the same way that releasing hostages is progress. this may be weird diplomacy, but it is still diplomacy and is still going in the right direction. the problem, ithink, i agree with alex, yes, it is progress, there is definitely progress. certainly compared to everything we've seen in the last a0 or 50 yea rs, we've seen in the last a0 or 50 years, yeah. the problem with it is that i think donald trump doesn't see anything in the long or even medium—term strategic geopolitical sense, he does see it, i think, as he said, like a real estate, "i can do a deal with this guy." that is the way that he sees it. i think it would probably be better if they didn't hold the summit on the 12th ofjune, whatever the date is at the moment, because i think they would have a better chance of some kind of... actually, we are willing
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to call your bluff. we won'tjust going along with this forever. there is no doubt about it. they played regime after regime in the us to the nth degree. but donald trump does not consider what happens three moves down the road. kim jong—un is maybe playing donald trump, by being more conciliatry. he looks like he's been more logical. and not sure they are there on the same page. the us wants unilateral disarmament on the north korean side. china and north korea would like to see the corresponding de—escalation in the peninsula. there are 20,000 us troops in south korea. and one former obama
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official said to me this week, he wondered if there might be division in the south korean leadership, that the military leadership might not be entirely supportive of this change. they will not be happy about denuclearisation. look what happened to saddam hussein. you should follow the model, deposed leader— that's not going to go anywhere. it needs to be done. it is going to be an interesting few weeks or months ahead if he does go ahead. thank you very much for being with us. next time. remember, our red button is bigger than yours! from all of us
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here, goodbye. this is the scene earlier on in the highlands where you could save 27 degrees. epic story overnight the storms with lightning strikes. we have had a few sins butjust show you where the radar charts the current storms. one through oxfordshire into mid wales and another in north wales and anglesey. it looks clear behind, that will be a case for the time being we could see one or two more thunderstorms
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through. you'll also notice that his only a small portion of the country. we will see one to develop in their wa ke we will see one to develop in their wake but the southwest and southern parts of wales, a better day compared with yesterday and much of northern england, scotland with less in the way of low cloud around the coast. 27 as i said in the highlands, 27 in parts london too. for continuing coverage of the biggest weekend, swansea is in the clear, coventry though once the chance of a few showers. will rumble on into tonight. for the majority it will be a night. low cloud. drifting through in towards the midlands. made muggy night in the midlands. bank holiday monday, the good news is for the vast majority there will
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bea is for the vast majority there will be a good day. one team overnight showers lingering and want to showers lingering and want to showers will pop up here and there. they could be heavy and sundry once again but very few will be affected. the low cloud will linger down the eastern coast keeping temperatures in the teens. 25 to 20 seven elsewhere. one or two showers will continue into the end of our bank only weaken. the low cloud then becomes dominant through the night. into next week, a balance between high—pressure to the north of those. easterly winds will dominate, low cloud could be an issue. some of that on tuesday, sunny spells for the vast majority. low pressure as it ages north could mean storms for parts of the south. the rest of the week, most places dry with 12 showers. bye for now.
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this is bbc news. i'm chris rogers. the headlines at midday. north korea's kim jong—un‘s says a summit with us president donald trump in singapore should go ahead. hundreds of passengers are stranded at stansted airport after lightning strikes damage aircraft fuelling systems, grounding flights. spectacular overnight storms across southern britain — around 15,000 lightning strikes in just four hours. senior politicians call for northern ireland's strict abortion laws to be relaxed as voters in the irish republic overwhelmingly back change in a referendum. the government is considering whether to expand england's network of national parks and areas of outstanding natural beauty. coming up in the next hour... a painful night for liverpool fans. two game—changing mistakes
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