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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  June 2, 2018 11:30am-12:00pm BST

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to discuss all that, with me are, greg katz, of the news agency the associated press. stefanie bolzen from the german newspaper, die welt the. iranian writer nazenin ansari and iain martin, columnist with the british ‘paper, the times. there's an old joke that the united kingdom and the united states are two nations divided by a common language. but whether you say ‘a—loo—min—um' and i say aluminium, a 10% tariff on imports of that and 25% on imports of steel, is not a friendly gesture. on friday, donald trump's administration imposed the duties, saying negotiations with the european union, canada and mexico hadn't made enough progress in the two months since he first threatened tariffs on foreign metals. the french said it was "illegal", the british called it "absurd", and justin trudeau, canada's pm, looked hurt. stephanie, the european commissioner responsible for responding to this said it wasn't so much a trade war asa said it wasn't so much a trade war as a dangerous game, but how
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seriously are they taking it in brussels? they take it very seriously and the reactions coming up seriously and the reactions coming up from brussels at the end of the week, they were quite harsh. will this be a tit—for—tat escalation, what everybody is talking about? it will be difficult from the european perspective because every country has different interests. the next question is what comes after steel? from the german perspective, the big fear after steel, there will be big ta riffs fear after steel, there will be big tariffs on cars. germany transported ca i’s tariffs on cars. germany transported cars to the value of $20 billion to the us, the biggest automobile exporter in europe. they don't want an escalation, they want more appeasement, whilst france doesn't have the same interests. we will see how much thisjoint have the same interests. we will see how much this joint answer will look like. where do you think he has taken this step, given liam fox and
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others have been suggesting an paul ryan, the speaker of the house was suggesting, the real problem is china yet he is hitting allies he might want to work with against china? this is classic tron, common he likes to provoke, divide and conquer and challenge all the assumptions in place. since world war ii, we have had this lines which is almost unbridgeable between the us and the uk and he has thrown a hand grenade in brussels. it is very consistent with his approach, he has some archaic explanation as to why this will damage china. but the immediate impact is to damage everyone else on but these complex trade realities are risk. it is classic trump, it is theatre, exciting and get headlines home with america and is making enemies to about europe. in terms of the practicalities, is he right to think europe, like south korea before it, will blink first? he might be right.
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economically, it is a bad idea because everybody loses. he has been consistent coming he has always said america first. it is a bigger story, which is essentially donald trump almost declaring war on europe. what comes next is nato. he is breaking the alliance, which has been the mainstay of western dynamics since 1945, the idea that america has europe's back. remember, there is a big nato summit coming injuly. at that, i think we will see something equally dramatic from trump. maybe even something as serious as a threat to withdraw from nato. this poses all sorts of questions for europe because europe as to adjust toa europe because europe as to adjust to a world which began under 0bama and the pivots of the pacific but i'iow and the pivots of the pacific but now has an american president who is not interested in europe and not
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interested in having europe's back. and doesn't think that europe has anything worth having and therefore he can afford to do this? this is the first time in us history that the first time in us history that the united states has taken such action against its own allies and trading partners. but the united states sees itself as in a cold war. it has been noted that economic security is military security. for him it is important how europe, postures towards the major crisis, that in the us administration's perspective, is most dangerous and thatis perspective, is most dangerous and that is iran and north korea. also russia. you have all these crises going on and the united states is trying to make a point that this is
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important for me. europe is making a stand, it is as timbale expanse, they are saying we will go to the world trade organisation but they are countries that take national security as an issue. when it comes to the national security issues, the world trade organisation rules don't apply, that is the united states and russia. russia is trying to come between the united states and europe, trying to advise that we are here if the us abandoned shoe. europe, trying to advise that we are here if the us abandoned shoem europe, trying to advise that we are here if the us abandoned shoe. it is not a great choice, it is hobson‘s choice. the next topics, will reflect europe is not faced with a new transatlantic relationship, but internally with brexit, italy and eastern european countries having a
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different policy to what brussels thinks in terms of domesticjudicial reforms and so on. so many battlefields in europe domestically and internationally, it is exhausting. it is a game of multi dimensional chess. italy have averted a constitutional crisis. after five star and the league, the populist parties who topped the poll in the country's general election, blinked first. they had wanted to appoint a finance minister who thinks italy should never have joined the euro. president matarella said no. he feared italy could crash out of the eurozone without italians having been asked whether or not they wanted to leave. all eyes were on rome, but it turns out everyone was looking in the wrong direction. spain's chronic political condition erupted unexpectedly into crisis on friday when manuel rajoy, conservative prime minister, lost a vote of confidence in the parlament in madrid. he'll be replaced by a socialist. meanwhile, britain's conservatives tried to resolve their brexit divisions, how else, but over a nice cup of tea. let's start with britain, since we
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are here and we saw in the papers this week, suggestions that some of the ex—cabinet ministers who used to sit round the table with theresa may have been trying to persuade her to find a compromise. they say she's listening to the extremes on both sides of the argument and there is a middle line, what do you make of the intervention? britain is years into this brexit process and it is still ina this brexit process and it is still in a situation where the government is still negotiating with itself. it is still negotiating with itself. it is still negotiating with itself. it is still ahead of the keyjune council on june 28, where is still ahead of the keyjune council onjune 28, where a lot of this is supposed to be resolved. the brits don't have a clear position on whether or not the uk is going to stay inside something like a customs union or have a customs agreement with the european union. the cabinet is split and the prime minister's view is unclear. a lot of cabinet ministers saying she is not running
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the policy. it is a lot of confusion. it is a bit dull at the moment, but i think it will be potentially a very explosive month oi’. potentially a very explosive month or. because if the prime minister cannot resolve this, and if the talks crash in june cannot resolve this, and if the talks crash injune or insufficient progress is made, i think you might, at that point, be back into leadership territory, because britain will then be stuck and remember, the clock is ticking all the time. i am someone who voted for breakfast... i'm sorry, brexit! it is the best meal of the day. having said that, by the time european politics comes back in september, 0ctober, it will be six months before brexit is due to happen and the situation becomes something close to a national emergency. it seems calm at the moment but i think
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we are heading for a political explosion. is that the sense among european leaders, they say they don't know what britain once and an element of that will be the brinkmanship of negotiation. you a lwa ys brinkmanship of negotiation. you always call out the other side. privately concerned how close we are getting to the wire? they have been concerned for a very long time. britain is leaving and they need to tell us what they want and with the commission, they are very much rules —based. they are saying, these are oui’ —based. they are saying, these are our rules, take them or leave them, we will not let you cherry pick. the most important country is ireland, it isa most important country is ireland, it is a small country, but it is a crucial player now because of the border in northern ireland and it is putting a lot of pressure on the commission now to make sure britain doesn't get a deal that will hurt in any way, the good friday agreement and we will see any form of borders
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again in the north of ireland. we are back to the question of do we have the technology yet to achieve this without having a physical border? in a sense, you have written this week about the difficulties of negotiation and people argue we should be saying no to brussels on some of these things? the commission, i think for all that britain has serious problems, the commission is behaving badly on a subject like galileo, where britain is the leading security intelligence power in europe. europe once a close relationship with the uk on this stuff because of terrorism and the challenges facing the continent. but, wants to shut the uk out of galileo because, as you indicated it isa galileo because, as you indicated it is a rules —based organisation. 0n other areas like the city of london, where effectively the city of london is the headquarters of the eurozone, it powers the debt markets of the eurozone. it is where most of the
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business is done. it is the well's largest capital market. we are pretty much close to a situation now in the uk where the bank of england and most of the financial establishment, apart from the treasury have woken up to the idea that actually, we can't have a situation where this giant centre, the city of and in is regulated by e—mail from brussels or paris. so there is a lot shifting, but at some point, soon, the crunch comes and they will have to decide. you have said, we should say no more to brussels, but it is about the red line is that the uk government have put out. the uk will not be governed any more by the european court of justice. how do you want to have a security treaty and say it cannot be controlled by the european court of justice, it is impossible. this is
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the fundamental disagreement and why britain voted to leave the european union, it is a sovereignty issue. look at the problems between italy and spain? the third and fourth largest economies in europe and it is political turmoil in the belly of europe. it is one of the problems europe, as an institution is facing. look at the death of italy, which is more than trillion and the new promises the new government has given, the debt will go up at least by 7% of their gdp. how is europe going to react and maintained this situation? this is interesting because although we talked about a political crisis and president matarella saying note to the finance
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minister, this is a sceptical view of the advice it receives from brussels and the rating agency has been saying we might be looking at reducing the standard and saying actually, it's not much abovejunk level in terms of the debt you can buy off it? we are running out of ways to say that the eu is in trouble. europe still exists, but there is no unifying concept i can see. when i got here 20 years ago, france juan mata on, see. when i got here 20 years ago, francejuan mata on, helmut kohl, you had these giant figures with a vision of unity, but now it is in disarray and we haven't mentioned the lack of democratic progress our ideals in poland and hungary. i was in paris visiting family and i saw francois matter on, one of the bridges is named after him. so these pillars of european unity, there are
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monuments to them but their ideas are gone. your paper was founded at the end of the war by the british occupiers and they published articles in the british view and the german view, and that kind of attempt to find compromise is lacking, even among those powers who broadly agree with germany?m lacking, even among those powers who broadly agree with germany? it was built literally on the wall, so it was overlooking the debt strip, as you call it, so germany is at the heart of this. talking about compromises, the council is important in terms of the reform of the eurozone. president macron is saying, we need to make a decision. if there was one advancing, joint idea that might be reforming the eurozone, that might be not happening because the german government cannot compromise on this because especially angela merkel‘s
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party will not want to be seen as giving money away control to the european commission, especially now to the. the combination of a populist government and a socialist prime minister who put his survival in spain... spain is very europhile. italy, when i was a brussels correspondent at the time of the bailouts of portugal and greece and everybody was whispering, it is all right. but if it is italy, we will not cope any more. it was always going to come down to the future of the eurozone, italy, which is a major economy and one of the founders of the european union, greece was always much smaller. that essential crunch between german standards and values and views of how currency should work and the italian view. the numbers on italy oi'i italian view. the numbers on italy on what has happened to the italian economy since the euro are
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horrifying. hence why the ratings agencies are giving warnings. what is driving things in terms of why people are voting as they are, real wages in germany since 1990 people are voting as they are, real wages in germany since1990 have increased by 120%. they have increased by 120%. they have increased in italy by 3%. you have an electorate sold the promise of the euro, lots of warnings at the time that it was imperfectly designed and heading for a smash at some point. it seems to be almost impossible to reform. president macron is doing brilliantly in many respects, but there doesn't seem to be any sense... we could have had this conversation six or seven years ago and saying the same things and yet it is still there. italy and the love for europe of the italians and they felt let down because of the refugee crisis. it was italy who had to cope because of the dublin
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agreements, data in hundreds and thousands of refugees and where pretty much left alone with it. no wonder people say they don't help us, why should we stick to the project. greece is suffering from the refugee crisis as well. and malta. there have been reports of refugees selling their passports and returning to turkey or syria. because they cannot cope, the culture change as well. europe is faced with so many tremors and fault lines and at the same time, it wants to stand up to the united states in a symbolic way. so there you go. first it has to agree it's common position. talking of the united states... there was a kim in the white house this week. no, not that one, though
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presodent trump says he expects to meet that kim in about ten days' time in singapore. this was donald trump's fellow reality television celebrity kim kardashian. she struggled to get her usual level of coverage, because a little known north korean, like some broadway babe, was the toast of new york. it seemed a very television moment, posing in the white house the donald trump. what is the substance?m posing in the white house the donald trump. what is the substance? it is an elaborate late coordinated and illustrated trump to create a more about this on again, off—again summit. the gentleman from north korea was given rose garden treatment. we don't do 21 gun salutes, but they almost went that far. it is like the people of huckleberry finn going up and down the mississippi selling things to unsuspecting strangers. this is trump's approach, it is a big
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circus. i think there is a chance that this north korea gambit could bear fruit. i am that this north korea gambit could bearfruit. iam not that this north korea gambit could bear fruit. i am not the crew that thinks this whole idea of an unscripted summit where you don't know the outcome is a disaster. i think there may be some upside to this but in the meantime, trump is enjoying the know, it's not going to happen. yes it is. maybe world peace, maybe i get the nobel peace prize, it is all part of the show. his latest pronouncement on the friday, was to say maybe we will get a peace deal between north and south korea. that will be good. it is like the expectation had been built up and then pulled back down again. would be such a great achievement, given they have been fighting for 60 yea rs, to have given they have been fighting for 60 years, to have a signature on appeaser paper? in the beginning they had raised expectations that north korea would denuclearisation
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everything would be fine and dandy, until the chinese stepped in. then the russians stepped in. they have been advising kim, don't follow the libyan model, as john been advising kim, don't follow the libyan model, asjohn bolton made a mistake of saying it on tv and kim took it seriously. also, don't make the same mistake as the islamic republic of iran did. get something in return. certainly, there will be summits. they are making preparations for it in singapore. trump is saying, maybe we won't get it in the first, second or third time, but don't forget, the nuclear deal, it took them over ten, 15 yea rs deal, it took them over ten, 15 years to come to it. is the world ready to wait that long for north korea to come to a deal? i don't think so, that is why everything, the gas has been turned up high. you
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see all these turmoils, they want to solve everything together. i don't know whether it will happen or not. the japanese are worried. they have said, don't reward north korea simply for being willing to talk, they have to go further to get something? that is true in the japanese are often overlooked in this, but they are in terms of the western alliance, the key power that should get a lot more attention. although i am a trump sceptic, i tend to think there is something interesting going on here and that it might actually work. he has this strange capacity for keeping people guessing. we know from the history of summits, it can come down to the personalities... mikhail gorbachev and ronald reagan? exactly. whether they get on. all of those cases, whether it works, it is about
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personal chemistry. i have a sneaking suspicion they will get on and going to go further than people imagine. i am intrigued by this thought of kim jong—un and donald trump having personal chemistry?” get nervous about even the terms we are using com he puts on a show, it is very interesting what he's doing. it is top level, serious, international politics. from what i read, iam international politics. from what i read, i am not a international politics. from what i read, iam nota us international politics. from what i read, i am not a us expert, international politics. from what i read, iam not a us expert, but international politics. from what i read, i am not a us expert, but the correspondence of saying, there is a lot going on, but what comes afterwards, no one knows. personally, this makes me feel nervous. the problem is, they have different views on what denuclearisation of the korean peninsular means? yes and the libya example is heartening and the uranium example is heartening. but it isa uranium example is heartening. but it is a classic case where it is better to have these discussions than hitting each other with fire
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and fury. the regime is also divided within itself. that is what the americans understand, kim doesn't trust the north korean foreign ministry and there is a fighter and dialogue and power struggle. also, the north korean snow day is this really at the whim of the regime, exists at the whim of the chinese. i think the contrast with 0bama, who we are all supposed to praise for his wonderful rhetoric and great statesman—like way of which he was president of the united states, actually was very bad at this stuff and didn't get a lot done. with the course of a year, trump has managed to, andl course of a year, trump has managed to, and i accept there are serious risks of what could possibly go wrong? but, he has managed to move things along and create the possibility of some kind of deal
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that wasn't there before. is there a lesson for iran in this? if they can reach an agreement with north korea for denuclearisation, north korea has been one of the suppliers of this technology, missile technology to iran. if you disconnect north korea from the islamic republic with its missile capability, whether it is in syria, or elsewhere in the middle east, this is the strategy they are thinking of probably, to disconnect the. what is important with north korea and which is very important with iran is the status of the economy. the iranian people, what they will do with, whether they bring regime change or not, doesn't matter to the united states, it is the state of the economy which is dire. such as north korea, north korea needs the money. thank you all
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very much. that's it for dateline london for this week. we're back next week, same time, same place. goodbye. hello there. a good deal of sunshine and warmth again for many of you today, but for many, those storm clouds are once again brewing. we've seen clouds spilling of the near continent through today. that brought early rain across some eastern parts of england, spreading its way northwards and westwards. but a few showers and storms dotted around and they will continue to develop as we go through into the afternoon. mainly across northern and eastern half of the country, a lot more sunshine compared with recent days in the south and a fair bit of sunshine across parts of scotland and northern ireland too.
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but it's here inland and if we take a closer look at the details, we could see some severe and fairly slow—moving storm is set up. mainly over the hills, maybe a few through the central belt and towards the southern uplands. one or isolated one in northern ireland. greater amount of cloud though here, southern scotland into northern england, not a huge amount of sunshine but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible extended down into the east midlands and across east anglia as well. now, those storms could cause a risk of some flooding because they are so slow—moving, but many will stay dry and with blue skies continuing through much of wales, the midlands, southern england this afternoon, we could see highs of around 25 or 26 degrees. into this evening and overnight the storms gradually fade away. there'll still be a few showers through the night, southern scotland, northern england, maybe also northern ireland. most though will be dry, very misty across the north. very muggy night, 15 degrees in glasgow. bit fresher across the south compared with the past few nights, but here you are going to start your sunday with some sunshine away from some eastern coasts.
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a blue sky day for many, maybe just one or isolated showers close to cornwall and the isles of scilly. always more cloud, northern england, scotland, northern ireland. so a little bit cooler than recent days, but not as many showers as today. if you do get one or of the heavier showers, you will be rather unlucky and temperatures a bit closer to where they should be for the time of year, but climbing a bit on today's values in the south, 26, 27 not out of the question. that's the weekend, quick look into next week. we still got high pressure dominating the weather charts. it's to the north—west of us are monday and with winds flowing round clockwise, that means like we saw the other week, it will bring in the cloud off the north sea to give a grey start to monday. could be the odd spot of drizzle around, most will be dry, isolated showers later but most having a dry and fine a. having a dry and fine day. sunny spells breaking through and temperatures closer to where they should be for the time of year, mid—to high teens, if not low 20s. we will stick roughly with those values through the week, maybe getting a little bit warmer at times, so the chance of a few storms across the south, but by and large, especially northern areas, a lot
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of dry weather to come. bye for now. this is bbc news. i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12. visa says its services are now operating at full capacity — after customers across europe were left unable to make payments. president trump's summit with north korea is back on — confirmation comes after kim jong—un's envoy delivers a large letter to donald trump. the us defence secretary accuses china of trying to intimidate its neighbours by deploying missiles in disputed areas of the south china sea. also coming up — new developments in the jeremy thorpe scandal. the bbc learns police are to re—open the investigation into the former liberal leader, after discovering a key figure they concluded was dead, could actually still be alive. and at 12.30 the bbc‘s gary 0'donoghue tests a pair of glasses which provide sighted help for blind people.
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