this is business live from bbc news with sally bundock and ben thompson. all change in mexico, andres manuel lopez obrador is to be the new president, the first left wing leaders in decades. but what does it mean for that trade war with the us, and the global economy? live from london, that's our top story on monday 2nd july. the new mexican president has pledged to tackle corruption as his highest priority, as it weighs heavily on the country's balance sheet. but what sort of up—hill battle is he facing? we will be getting an expert view. also in the programme... nearly 22,000 jobs have been hit on the uk's struggling high streets this year with thousands more hanging in the balance. also for the financial markets, a

brand—new week has begun. they are headed in one direction and we will explain why. and forget the football for a minute, wimbledon gets underway in london today. and technology is taking the tennis tournament by storm. we'll get the inside track on how it's changing the game. today we want to know... as the high street struggles, what do you still buy in the shops? what do you prefer to buy online? let us know. just use the hashtag bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. left—wing candidate andr s manuel l pez 0brador has won a landslide victory in mexico's presidential election. his election comes at a time of disillusionment at unchecked corruption, violence and poverty. let's take a look at some of the challenges the new leader —

faces ? the good news is mexico's economy grew by 2.4% in 2017, with similar growth rates predicted for this year. but the country faces several interlinked problems. serious challengers. the biggest is mexico's massive violent crime rate, with over 29,000 murders in 2017 alone. aside from the terrible human cost, this statistic also carries an economic weight. the mexico peace index put the cost of the violence at us $219 billion much of the violence stems from drug trafficking, with rival cartels vying to control the flow of drugs into the united states. this has led to widespread corruption, with transparency international ranking mexico 135th on an index of 180 countries in 2017. mexico also has high

levels of poverty. recent figures from coneval — who measure poverty in mexico — say 43.6% of the population — or 53 million people — live below the poverty line. and president elect lopez 0brador has previously talked tough against president trump. he's being seen as a strong leader to fight mexico's corner on free trade, and says he wants to maintain the current nafta deal. thank you. nicholas watson is here. he has claimed victory in this election says there will be profound change on the way. a do think the biggest changes will come? amlo, as

he is known, represents a different kind of model. he is talking about transforming mexico and wants to radically address security issues and tackle corruption which is such and tackle corruption which is such a problem. actually, he is tacked to the centre in recent years. this is his third attempt at the presidency and it is a landslide. the thrust of his policy will be to change people's concerns and frustrations with corruption and security. it is looking like, on economic policy, he will be more of a continuity candidate than he well in the past. reassuring words for the business community, particularly pointing out that will not be widescale nationalisation, which worried a lot of private business. he has promised to respect the autonomy of the central bank. he has promised to respect contracts. he will pause the energy reform, respect contracts. he will pause the

energy reform , one respect contracts. he will pause the energy reform, one of the big structural reforms of the outgoing government, while he orders contracts for corruption. 0bviously, whether what he said in the campaign ends up being different to what he doesin ends up being different to what he does in office remains to be seen. 0ne does in office remains to be seen. one big thing he was talking about on the campaign was the trade war with the united states. we have seen very tough words on both sides as far as president trump and the new president is concerned. we have seen tough talk and now the reality of dealing with each other. this is interesting. lopez 0brador has said he is pro—free trade and wants to maintain the north american free trade agreement, nafta. he has nominated a chief negotiator to take the negotiation on because it is still unresolved. ' gs says he thinks the deal can be struck in the next two months. —— that negotiator says. that is very optimistic given

the us midterms. what it illustrates is, for the first time, uncertainty is, for the first time, uncertainty is not so much coming from the mexican side, it is coming from the us and what it wants to do on key issues like auto wills of origin, the sunset clause than after. that is really where the big uncertainty lies. a big word about what is on top of his to—do list? what is the first thing he will have two tackle? he has a long transition and does not take office until december but w has a long time to tweak his team. —— he has a long time. on average there are about 93 murders a day in mexico this year. that is a huge issue. most people realise you cannot have immediate results on that. tackling corruption as well would be the big area for him. really interesting. really good to see you. thank you.

let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. french supermarket carrefour and british rival tesco have announced plans to join forces in a global purchasing tie—up. the move is designed to cut costs and fight growing competition from new players including amazon. carrefour is europe s largest retailer but has been forced to cut costs and jobs recently. the british government has produced a third model for handling customs after the uk leaves the eu. details of the new plan have not been revealed publicly. theresa may says the uk will shortly publish a white paper setting out what kind of partnership the uk wants with the european union. third time lucky. ca nada's retaliatory measures against president trump's steel and aluminium levies have come into force. canada imposed a 25% tariff on assorted us metals products and tariffs of 10% on 250 other us goods like beer, whiskey and orange juice. senior canadian officials say the list is designed to exert

maximum political pressure on the us. let's ta ke let's take you to the other side of the world now. growth in china's manufacturing sector cooled off injune, according to the latest figures. the caixin/markit manufacturing pmi came in at 51.0, anything above 50 shows expansion and that is a little bit better than me. katie silver is in singapore. can you make sense of it? i'm glad you pronounced it rather than me. it looks at private data and smaller business data. anything above 50 of the good reading. 0verall business data. anything above 50 of the good reading. overall we only ssw the good reading. overall we only saw a the good reading. overall we only saw a slight decline, .1%. the area where there was an issue was over

new exports. here we saw a contraction below 50, a0 9.8 that shows there was contraction in demand for new exports. it was the third consecutive month for this sort of decline full tour was the worst reading in two years. what does this mean? —— worst sort of decline. this data is backward looking and looks the month ofjune. the fact we have already seen this decline shows countries around the world a re decline shows countries around the world are reducing demand for chinese products. ill be interesting to see how the numbers react next month if president trump comes good on his threat to deliver $37 billion worth of tariffs. the markets today that it is a brand—new trading week but this beginning of the second half of 2018. it is not looking that great. these big green numbers where the

end of last week. hong kong was closed for a public holiday. today you can see japan closed for a public holiday. today you can seejapan is closed for a public holiday. today you can see japan is down 2.2% at the close. shows across asia were on the close. shows across asia were on the way down. people are a little bit concerned as they start the second half. the euro is weak because of concern about political instability in germany. the price of oilfalling had instability in germany. the price of oil falling had an instability in germany. the price of oilfalling had an impact on trade in asia following a tweet by president trump hoping production will be increased in south arabia —— saudi arabia. today you can see declines across the board. 0ne saudi arabia. today you can see declines across the board. one to mention is tesco. shares are down 196. mention is tesco. shares are down 1%. they are not that impressed that tesco is talking with carrefour and a strategic alliance or it can just be dissatisfaction in general. and kim gittleson has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. on monday, investors will be

paying close attention to a survey of manufacturers. this gives us a good sense of how the manufacturing sector here in the united states is doing. now, a june reading of that same survey, which is known as the ism index, shows that the manufacturing sector was expanding and that order backlogs hit a 1a—year high. the question for investors will be whether or not president donald trump's trade war is having an impact on the sector that he says he most wants to help. we saw that the imposition of tariffs went into effect in the european union and canada and in china in the past month. the question will be is this having any impact on the manufacturing sector, or is the us economic activity enough to sustain it in the month ofjune? joining us isjeremy stretch, head of currency strategy at cibc world markets. hello. what are you watching? just coming into the office this morning there are so many bits around the world, no standout movies but a lot of things investors will be keeping

an eye on. absolutely. we just started the second half of the year. we seeing a number of trade tension uncertainties which are affecting markets and investor confidence. at the start of the year we came into the start of the year we came into the year with global synchronised growth looking healthy and expecting a reasonably constructive year. headwinds have built up. concerns about oil price and german political risks. a number of caveats to market sentiment and is whether half is starting on a relatively low note. talking about trade tensions, canada was straight in there with the limitation of its trade tariffs. we have the financial times front page and a piece saying that we have seen ideas on the part of the european union and its counter trade reaction, as it were. working for a canadian bank, talk is through the tensions between canada and the us. they are very real and very evident.

i was they are very real and very evident. iwas in they are very real and very evident. i was in both canada and the us last week and that was the topic of discussion in most every meeting. what is the outlook for the trade backdrop? will there be continued acceleration? are there retaliatory measures? is there a risk of escalation and how quickly will the escalation and how quickly will the escalation play out in what will the impact be? with a new that is also very interesting, isn't it? that underlines further uncertainties in the nafta process. regarding discussions and political dynamics, we will probably continue to receive negative headlines until the us mid—term elections. negative headlines until the us mid-term elections. for some reason, the bottom of the screen, the ftse is missing. all the others are there but the ftse is looking a bit shy. it just was but the ftse is looking a bit shy. itjust was not but the ftse is looking a bit shy. it just was not appearing. but the ftse is looking a bit shy. itjust was not appearing. we are being told to move on. still to come technology and tennis, as wimbledon gets underway in london

we'll look at how artificial intelligence is revolutionising one of the world's oldest games. you're with business live from bbc news. around one in six people don't have enough money to live comfortably when they retire. that's according to a new study by asset management firm schroders. it says there's a significant gap between what people expect to get, and what they actually receive. lesley—ann morgan is global head of retirement at schroders. tell us more about what you found, because i have to say since i started a job as a financial journalist, i feel like i started a job as a financial journalist, ifeel like i have been telling this story and things haven't changed. yes in the study of 22,000 people in 30 countries and a

thousand people in the uk, we found that in the run up to retirement people were expecting to spend around ao% of their income on basic living expenses like bills and food. but in reality, it was over 50%. the impact of that is that individuals actually find that they can't do the things they were looking forward to doing in retirement and people are cutting back on spending on hobbies and also on things like going travelling or taking a holiday for their retirement. we talk about these things about people aren't putting enough away now for when they're older, but there are so many pressures on people. they can't afford to? yes it is challenging for people. but one interesting thing we found from this study was once people get into retirement, they're recognising that and putting away

substantially more into investments to deal with the fact that they have undersaved. in the uk in the run up to retirement people expected to put 7% away into investments. but actually they're putting 21% away. that is because they haven't saved enough and they're living longer and dealing with that issue of making that money last for longer. thank you. the challenger bank monzo has lost 33.1 million. you can read about that on the business live page. your‘re watching business live. our top story... the anti—establishment candidate

andres manuel lopez 0brador has promised to deliver profound change in mexico, after winning the presidential election. it has become a real theme of anti—establishment leaders getting the vote. wimbledon gets underway today here in london and, as with most major sporting competititions, technology is playing an ever increasing role in how the games are played. last year, over a billion people in over 200 countries watched some of the tennis. and those fans will see how the game is changing. sensors and computers at the venue collect about a.s million pieces of data from 18 tennis courts across the fortnight. ? artificial intelligence is used to make automated video highlights? packages and is integrated on the fan apps and social media, using 360 degree viewing for example. and technology is used by players too. they can see a video as soon

as they come off court that shows them every point, how many forced errors there were. ?it gives them a full match report. ? sam seddon from ibm — the technology company that works with wimbledon — is here. now, sam, you were and i were talking, you said how did you end up doing this. explain, this is your dreamjob? doing this. explain, this is your dream job? i used doing this. explain, this is your dreamjob? i used to be a business strategy consultant with ibm and got involved with wimbledon six years ago and now can combine with sports geek with technology. you love sport and you thought, how will i wangle my way in? yes sport is at the forefront of technology and being pa rt forefront of technology and being part sport and tech was a natural part. i'm glad you called yourself a

geek and not us! as we know, there are so many roles geek and not us! as we know, there are so many roles that technology can play in sport. give us a sense of the data you collect. we have got people collecting speed of serve, how the ball bouncing and we make that available to the media in the commentary booths. we provide real time stat and get it across the world in two seconds. that is where the ball lands and where the serve goes. we can see why that is use. about how fast it was and how many baseline serves. how is that useful for the players? they're looking for that little bit of difference and competitive advantage. what we provide is a report straight to a mobile divice. they get video and they can see their errors or aces or

break points and that allows them to prepare for the next game. also of course this tech is so important in selling this event, making sure that everybody, no matter what their age group is engulfed in the whole event? yes, as you said, there is a lot of other sport going on at the moment. wimbledon first and foremost are a fantastic sporting event, but they think of themselves as a media business. they have two weeks a year to get their message over and we're using things like artificial intelligence to help. as this imbeds the brand, this technology, it helps wimbledon make more money? they will get more sponsor wimbledon make more money? they will get more sponsor ship. it is about being the best tennis tournament and to do that they have to push the boundaries. we are looking at pictures of glory days of wimbledon.

how has it changed, the game? you talk of getting access to it on mobile devices. 0ne talk of getting access to it on mobile devices. one thing has been putting wi—fi into wimbledon and into grating that into the old infrastructure. but should people be on their mobile devices or watching it in front of them? it is about technology to help things. wi—fi is in the queue. the way wimbledon went about it, they wanted to understand how people would behave and we did trials and the people put down their phones when the tennis is. that gives you information about where they're using it. yes the more you understand what your fans want, the more you can tailor the experience. who will win this year? the men and

women. i have been asked a few times. i have failed to come up with an answer. give us your best guess. i would love to see serena coming back, that would be notjust fantastic for her, but fantastic for the sport. i think on the men's side s the sport. i think on the men's side s with andy going out, i can't be too nationalistic. but i would love too nationalistic. but i would love to see kyle edmonds push through to the final stages. thank you. what do you think will win? i have no idea. i'm going tomorrow. will you be here tomorrow? i will be here and then nip off. just checking. this is how to stay in touch. stay up—to—date with all the day's business news as it happens on the bbc‘s business live page. there's insight and analysis from our team of editors right around the globe and we want to hear from you. get involve on the bbc‘s business live web page at bbc.com/business. on twitter, we're at bbc business and you can find us on facebook at bbc money.

business live on tv and online — what you need to know when you need to know. jeremy is back to look through the papers. there is an interesting story on the bbc web—site looking at the number of retailjobs that have been lost since the start of year. it is an astonishing number. yes and you listen to the headlines and there could be more to come with house of fraser and marks and spencer. the retail sector is struggling with employment. it is not being seen in the national numbers yet. but there isa the national numbers yet. but there is a tendency to see some head winds coming in. is there any indication why it is happening now, they have all come together. as you come to the end of a quarter, you have the

re nt the end of a quarter, you have the rent due and the changing shopping habits and we have to remember over the last ten years we have seen an increase in floor space and now that is now in excess of what is required. how much do you do online instead of in store. a lot of people are saying, you have a few. yes, we have got one saying, i haven't got enough money tho go to the corner shop, let alone a high street shop. we have the black sheep, an interesting handle, tax receipts is affected, the deappreciation of the pound, amazon is cheaper. philip talks of car parking charges. that isa talks of car parking charges. that is a big issue, getting into the town centres to park. another suggesting because all the same

stores in all the same high streets. that is partly the problem. they have dominated the high streets and every where is identical. yes and price is an issue and convenience. you can shop online at any time and get those things delivered at relatively at your convenience. that makes the shopping experience different. that is why we are seeing people talking about experiencing with shopping and the other aspects. there is a real change in spending habits and we seeing the legacy of that on our high street. thank you. we're back tomorrow. despite the fa ct we're back tomorrow. despite the fact that wimbledon is on. we will see you soon. hello there, many of us had another

hot and sunny weekend. but it wasn't the case completely, we had some showers to the south—west of england and south—west wales. there is a risk of showers today, but they will be ice lated —— isolated. this is the satellite image this morning. we have cloud around the bay of biscay and that has been going up towards south—west england and wales. still the chance of some showers here. elsewhere, plenty of sunshine. some cloud across northern and eastern scotla nd cloud across northern and eastern scotland and north eastern england. some showers to the south—west. not as heavy or as torrential as they we re as heavy or as torrential as they were yesterday. but some passing through. still feeling warm and humid. particularly across southern areas. temperatures up to 30 celsius in the south—east of wales and

towards the london area. further north temperatures about 18 to 2a. tonight very little change. we will see some cloud coming from the north sea across the south—east of scotla nd sea across the south—east of scotland and north eastern england. clear skies elsewhere and temperatures down to about nine to 15 celsius. this is tuesday, the small risk of a shower down to the south—west of the uk. 0therwise, lots of sunshine obtuse. a bit of cloud towards the north—west of scotland. in the south up to 30 celsius. fresher on the north sea coasts. northern ireland and scotla nd coasts. northern ireland and scotland temperatures about 17 to 2a degrees. wednesday, high pressure still in charge. we still could just a shower down to the south—west. but for the vast majority it is dry, sunny and some cloud around the north sea that could drift inland. but that is a weather system that we

have seen over the last couple of weeks or so. elsewhere we have that sunshine, temperatures becoming higher across scotland and northern ireland. up to the mid 20s. elsewhere mid to high 20s. the outlook to the weekend remaining dry, sunny and temperatures not changing a great deal, into the high twenties in london and low to maid twenties in london and low to maid twenties in london and low to maid twenties in scotland and no significant rain. hello. it's monday, it's 9 o'clock. i'm victoria derbyshire. welcome to the programme. more than 300 transgender children each year are now being prescribed puberty blockers in the uk, this programme has learnt. we'll be hearing the latest from two children we've been following for over three years, now living as girls. what do you think you will do? probably live all my life as a girl. probably? yeah, definitely. definitely?

definitely, yeah. later, after ten... will be talking to these young people, aged 12 to 17 years old, are all transgender, some on puberty blockers, some not, and what it's like growing up as trans in britain in 2018.