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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  July 7, 2018 11:30am-12:01pm BST

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and donald trump's european tour, via windsor castle, nato hq and tete—a—tete with vladimir putin. with me to discuss those stories are, david aaronovitch, columnist for the times newspaper jef mcallister, an american writer and broadcaster maria margaronis of the nation and the british conservative commentator alex deane. good to have you with this on an interesting weekend. this was the moment when theresa may had to corral her sometimes disloyal cabinet colleagues. we'll be out of the single market, but will "harmonize" our trade in goods with eu standards, not on services where the uk wil go its own way, though even here, the uk wants "strong recipricol arrangements" with the european union. we'll be out of the customs union but in a new customs territory. the eu's freedom of movement is replaced by a mobility framework, so europeans can study and work here and we can do the same in the eu. the european court ofjustice won't have jurisdiction any longer but the uk will "pay regard" to it decisions. and in case her foreign secretary borisjohnson wanted to denounce this plan as crazy,
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as he had an earlier one. mrs may told her ministers that collective cabinet responsibility is back. they have been warned. what should we make of this package she has come up we make of this package she has come up with and the outcome of what had been predicted was going to be a very tough day? i think it reflects well on the prime minister that she has managed to pull these forces together to something that everyone has agreed. everyone was predicting she could not do this without resignations and she did have to ta ke resignations and she did have to take brexiteers with her but also satisfy remainders and she has done that. people said she could not get a stage one deal and she has delivered. it is to her credit but there are two further things that are on the horizon the next is monday. she has to present this to the conservatives party at large in
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parliament. and the second is what the eu says to it. in the end, negotiations are all about compromise. nobody gets everything that they want and the cab and ice has compromised with itself and the ideology to come up with this position. if the eu continues to balance this, in the end, i think, they make it more likely that option b, no deal, comes about because the prime minister has always said, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. what did you make of her ability to come up with anything, given that the previous versions had already been rejected 7 given that the previous versions had already been rejected? at some point or other, she had to come up with something. the question was whether or not the cabinet brexiteers swallowed all there are essentially re—ingested the vast amounts of hot airthat re—ingested the vast amounts of hot air that they've expended on this
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subject and decided they were going to sign up for it and keep quiet. last night the non—cabinet element of the hard brexiteers were going absolutely tonto. they hate it. they know they are susceptible to the argument. it is actually edging towards what you call a norway type solution. in that case the idea will be, why did you not do it in the first place? it is full of stuff like essentially, if we do decide to deviate from trade rules in that place we will pay the penalty. hold on, alex... this is more or less the arrangement norway has with the european union. it is already... nick clegg has said if i was a brexiteer i would be likely to say, why have i gone through all this business to get to this stage?
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and that is even before we have a discussion with the eu, which of course in the end, people like alex i suspect will try to blame for the fa ct i suspect will try to blame for the fact that they have got nowhere near the place which they always suggested we were going to get to. it depends what we say. we made an agreement to cooperate on security and they said no. that is the sort of people we are negotiating with. that is the example you always use. you always end up relying on someone on the right wing of the german coalition. you did it last week. i watched last weeks programme and you are doing the same thing. the interior minister didn't say that la st interior minister didn't say that last week. they don't actually amount to very much. we shouldn't talk about this deal is if we know all the details yet, we don't. the extent of any rebellion on the conservative right will
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depend on whether in reality they can do trade deals outside of our relationship with the eu, or there will be real rebellion if they are stymied. let's talk about how brussels might respond to this. do you think it is ultimately a political decision whether or not they move because we hear... the european union has rules and the rules will have to be observed and you cannot cherry pick but is there political will to overcome that response? the european union has to stick by its rules on the four freedoms if it is to survive as it is. and this deal or negotiating edition is very much a pro—business brexit. it gives free trade within the eu but freed on services and assist service that are four fifths of the uk economy are not included in this. that means presumably that britain can have very low financial regulation, we can be singapore or try to be, while still maintaining
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trading relations with the eu. i don't think the eu were like that because that is having your cake and eating it. on the other hand, there is so much uncertainty and turbulence in europe you can see why they might say, ok, let'sjust saw this. let's keep a reasonable relationship with britain and carry on. it is not impossible. what in terms of the kind of package that theresa may is selling to her party, david, you have talked about the scepticism already from the limited information they have, is it possible that the brexiteers in the cabinet had made a calculation that there is no point resigning over this because the chances are it is going to get rejected and it will never get out of the traps and therefore we will still be in a position to have a harder brexit than perhaps this offer from theresa may looks like? it isa may looks like? it is a great question and if i could actually... alex will recall he was one of three people who suggested setting up a museum of brexit at one point or around
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wondering what would be in it. it would be a series of connecting empty rooms with incredible amounts of sound montages with people saying it is going to be great and fantastic. you end up in a final room and you open it and you find yourself in a place that is just very slightly worse and shabbier than the one you left in the first place. that is going to be the museum of brexit. it is your suggestion, your museum, tell me what is going to be in it. does it worry you that after all this process, it started with an attempt to renegotiate that david cameron ultimately didn't get much that brexiteers were satisfied with, he went ahead with the referendum, the referendum happen, britain voted to leave, the process takes two or three years, we end up with some kind of deal that actually looks like we got a kind of a sort of relationship with the eu that is not
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a huge amount different to what we had before? the only thing that worries me at the moment is the prospect of the government repeating the mistake it made before the referendum, which is not preparing for one side of a binary outcome. we stand the prospect, albeit we now see noises from the cabinet this will not be the case, of failing to prepare for a note of brexit. if we stumble into that fate, at the 11th hour, when we realise that a deal is not going to come off, despite all these compromises we are making, that would be a bad outcome. compromises we are making, that would be a bad outcomelj compromises we are making, that would be a bad outcome. i have allowed you to remain silent, listening with fascination of the agonies for brits and europeans alike. where does it look from the american perspective, this bridge to the european union that britain used to be seen as western mark well, does donald trump care about a
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bridge any more? the traditional architecture where britain was in some sense between the us and europe was more useful to europe because the relationship to the united states, if you don't care about the architecture, which i think he doesn't, i don't think that this makes much difference. he was pro—brexit. he is not interested in institutions generally. he says the eu was created in order to basically cheat the united states, so how anybody navigates this intelligently... i think he would let britain to be prosperous and to bea let britain to be prosperous and to be a good place for people to come to his golf courses, but i don't think he has a big strategic idea into which brexit fits or does not. and a trade deal has been talked about yet again, his ambassador in london was making encouraging noises once more. we had john bolton the
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national—security adviser meeting some of the leading brexiteers just a couple of weeks ago. is the mood music from washington that this is something that could be done in a reasonable amount of time, a seeming britain can disentangle itself from the european union?|j britain can disentangle itself from the european union? i do think there are problems with the customs arrangement internally, i don't think it's going to work, i don't think it's going to work, i don't think he irish are going to be able to handle that. getting back to washington, well, nothing seems to move washington, well, nothing seems to [ti ove very washington, well, nothing seems to move very quickly in the american congress these days. britain does have a favoured emotional place in the hearts of americans. i don't think the democrats would be against it in orderjust too bothered donald trump. but i think all these trade deals get negotiated in a very micro level and if you want correlated chicken and gm foods to come, you better get ready for that —— chlorinated chicken. it is not going to be what the uk is all that interested in. alex predicted last
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week correctly there would not be any resignations and we had all this lovely theatre that was organised by downing street, providing taxi cab numbers as ministers would lose their cars immediately and it is a long walk back. do you think that the cabinet she has now is the cabinet that is still going to be in place at the end of this brexit negotiation? do you think all these people are going to be able to swallow this? if they can, then it does suggest that they have just been talking nonstop... for two years. that is essentially it. if they can actually sign up for this, despite everything that they have said over the last two years, it reminds me very much of the old days of the communist party, someone turned round after stalin had done some programme and if they can stand this, they can't stand anything. likewise. if the hard brexiteers can
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stand for what is going on, they can stand for what is going on, they can stand for what is going on, they can stand for anything. i find it hard to believe. i find it hard to believe you won't have a sequence of resignations and it will be a sequence resignations and it will be a sequence of resignations in preparation for a leadership battle. for me the most important thing is we leave the european union. i imagine many of the leading your luminaries of brexit and the cabinet feel that they are going to do a betterjob feel that they are going to do a better job delivering feel that they are going to do a betterjob delivering that inside and out. you cannot help but feel this is what democracy looks like. the tory cabinet locked up in a country house with theresa may and the room, nobody leaves this room until i have identified the murderer. and their phones are confiscated. which isjust like the closed—door meetings in brussels that everyone complains about. we don't know how decisions are being made. if they can raise their sights above the brexit skyline this weekend, cabinet ministers may be asking
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what donald trump may yet do to the western alliance. on wednesday and thursday the us president will be at nato headquarters. he's certain to repeat his complaint about how little europeans spend on their own defence. indeed, his defence secretary jim mattis, a former marine commander wrote to britain's gavin williamson, the former boss of a company making ceramics, suggesting the french could displace the british unless mr williamson could persuade his boss to open the purse strings. with reports that he's also loooking at the cost of re—locating us personnel out of the uk and that cosy chat — a deaux — with vladimir putin, the russian president, in helsinki, there's reason to be watchful. are they nervous, do you think, about what they come out of this with? every american president has complained that european countries are not spending enough on defence. and they have been right really?m depends how you look at it. greece is the second highest and they have no money. the thing is that there is
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no money. the thing is that there is no rule about how much you are supposed to spend on defence. there is an aspiration. this is not about defence spending. this is about how do we contain donald trump? how are the europeans preparing after the g-7 the europeans preparing after the g—7 debacle... what do you do when the body is coming into the playground but you need him? and i don't know what they are doing. that is interesting. you have hit the nail on the head. you may not like him and you may think he's a bully, but you still need him. there is a really big problem because there has always been an incredible worry in europe, particularly germany and to an extent in britain, about american disengagement. and there have been big periods of american isolation. we think about the one preceding the
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second world war. the question is, what do you prepare for? do you prepare to palliate this president? do you prepare for this to be america's position going forward? do you think this is a temporary blip and it will be replaced by somebody who has what you might say is a more multilateral perspective on how the world works? rather i am the man and i get it done with a sequence of bilaterals? i think there are elements of all those discussions going on in european capitals and probably in britain as well. what is donald trump represents the long term and not just the donald trump represents the long term and notjust the short donald trump represents the long term and not just the short term?m it possible the mood has changed and if he's able to deliver something that looks different, american politicians afterwards will say, you know what, 78, getting towards 80 yea rs, staff has know what, 78, getting towards 80 years, staff has changed. we don't need boots on the ground in europe? i never thought he would be
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president, so my predictive powers are limited. i think there is still such an institutional and cultural understanding, widely spread among the american elite, such as it is, that european balance of power and the american role, and russia being a menace to that balance, requires active engagement, including troops, i think donald trump is trying to use this to get more money out of the europeans. he wouldn't mind taking the troops out himself. he does not care. but there are so many is delusional drags on that, especially from the pentagon, that he is unlikely to accomplish it. if he is unlikely to accomplish it. if he is unlikely to accomplish it. if he is no longer president... i don't think another republican would be as unusual as he is with foreign policy. he isa policy. he is a remarkable danger, i would say to the alliance and we get use to him. because he's the president. you have to make do with the body
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but he extremely unusual and a threat to the order that has brought peace and prosperity to the west and people do have to keep being vigilant about him and figure out how to manoeuvre around him. and the american presidents of long—standing right to criticise underspend on defence by european nations question mark i think that is true. we have a responsibility to is do that. two people have referred to donald trump as the body. president assad, vladimir putin, these are the bullies. there is a suggested moral equivalence... he chooses words that i would prefer not to use myself, so does david, but in the end, he is the president of the united states, it is not the bully in the room. when you start thinking it is, the problem is not with that person, it is with you. sorry, i am american andl is with you. sorry, i am american and i believe in the alliance and he isa and i believe in the alliance and he is a bully. when it comes to the
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alliance. i agree with you completely that vladimir putin is a genuine danger, i don't think donald trump is actually scheming in the same way. i don't think that is the way his mind works. but he is and the —— anti—institutional. he says that kim jong un is a good guy, intelligent and honourable and justin trudeau is a liar and disreputable. you just cannot marry this up. he likes dealing with the strong man. his election was pretty would partly by vladimir putin and thatis would partly by vladimir putin and that is one of the reasons why this is dangerous. he will not acknowledge this or have it investigated properly by his agencies. it is a tremendous threat to his own sense of himself. they are to his own sense of himself. they a re two to his own sense of himself. they are two sides of the same bully. we have to be careful about him. he is anti—institutional, he is a bully. he isa anti—institutional, he is a bully. he is a blatant obvious racist. he
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isa he is a blatant obvious racist. he is a liar, a danger to his own country and already fraying checks and balances that have been in place in the world since 1945. in korea, many of this president's predecessors have tried and failed through various conventional meals to bring a change. —— means. all of those things progress. of course it is some those things progress. of course it is some progress those things progress. of course it is some progress to see them crossing the border. he says kim jong un has promised that he would denuclearisation he gave up the nuclear exercises in south korea, which had been important.“ president obama had dinner, you would be clamouring for a nobel peace prize. let's stop with the
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twitter stuff, that is a twitter response. what is essentially being said, the thing we don't know is whether or not it was a success for the american president, but we do know the sure that it was a success for the north korean dictator. it was a huge success. the jury is out on whether it is a success, including yourjewellery, alex. the re st of including yourjewellery, alex. the rest of what our colleagues have said here seems to be absolutely true. we face a tremendous problem in dealing with the kind of politics that trump represented that is going to be the long—term perspective american president. you can sign up to that. you don't lose anything by signing up to that, so please do. what about the meeting with vladimir putin? the most surprise ending about that is even compared to kim jong un, they are doing it alone. two men going into a room together, should we be worried about that? what i do agree is that this is a
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president with an unconventional approach. uri rocket man, you are someone approach. uri rocket man, you are someone i can do deals with, i am not coming, it i'm coming tomorrow. it does seem to sort of work because evenif it does seem to sort of work because even if you don't think there's been progress or you seek to deny credit, more has happened in terms of advancing the ball than happened for several presidencies beforehand. on vladimir putin, if this president can get further than his predecessors did, that will be a very significant achievement. any kind of meaningful dialogue on what is happening in eastern ukraine? what would that be? international observers allowed in. to observe what. you are constructing your own bogeyman. i did not raise the
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question, the trump administration did. it would not occur to me to suggest that the american mid—administration would recognise the annexation of a part of a friendly country by another country and yet that came from within the ministration. this is our problem. they did sign up to the sanctions. you want the president of the united states and him to talk. i think in some ways, vladimir putin is exactly what donald trump would like to be. david ‘s dislike of the individual are so visceral, you cannot contemplate the idea of advancement. you are going to have to show me some advancement. one of the things on what used to be the right wing in british politics is a gradual movement to the acceptance opposition people that you simply would not have tolerated for five years ago. it is a part of the
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process we have seen years ago. it is a part of the process we have seen in europe but in america as well. unfortunately, that has got you into a position of tolerating things that a few years ago you not have. we have all got to accept yourjudgment. he is in the white house and we have to work out what to do about him long—term. that was my original point. one thing europeans need to consider is whether this is a long—term trend and the big threat for us is whether or not that effectively lets people like the chinese in as big levers of influence because these are the people essentially that we have to doa people essentially that we have to do a lot of business with in the absence of an american friend. europe has been for some time beefing up its own defence arrangements. possibly as an alternative. and not as i would say the best possible way. there is a lot of involvement with defence contractors and it is a shady
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business. but that is going on quietly behind the scenes. as a body pointed out, things have changed dramatically since1945. nato has been on the wane for some time anyway. as i said before, it is not really about nato. it is about what we do about this wild card in the most powerful position in the world? how do we deal with it, what do we do? one thing we do is lay out the red carpet, i suppose. do? one thing we do is lay out the red carpet, isuppose. he's do? one thing we do is lay out the red carpet, i suppose. he's going to get to meet the queen and get a lovely dinner at blenheim palace and he is going to... and the balloon. yes, we have got to mention the balloon. a balloon of babied donald trump will be floating over london. we will be watching out for it. we will be watching out for it. we will be back next week with dateline london to analyse what has happened at that nato meeting. and indeed, how donald trump has been received here in the uk. from all of us on received here in the uk. from all of us on the programme, until the same
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time next week, that is dateline london. thanks for your company, goodbye. the weekend as a whole brings plenty more dry weather with lots of hot sunshine. there is a bit of cloud around. some coastal cloud. sea breezes developing close to the coasts as well. more cloud generally into northern ireland and to the far west of scotland with the odd spot of drizzle. but for most of us, it isa of drizzle. but for most of us, it is a semi—story for the rest of the day. across eastern scotland, from aberdeen go to edinburgh, a of
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sunshine. temperatures in glasgow up to 20 ford celsius. a bit more cloud in northern ireland. further east, hot sunshine. 31 degrees in london. just a small transfer a shower across the south—east. big england match this afternoon. we dive under the clouds towards the arena. as you can see, there are some areas blue sky likely to be overhead. kick—off is at 3pm. temperatures around about 26 degrees. what about the forecast for wimbledon through the rest of the day? lots of hot sunshine. temperatures topping out at around about 30 degrees. only cooling off very slowly as we head on into the evening. that is the evening for most of us. the small chance rush—hour across the south—east. the vast majority will be dry. once the sun goes down, lots of clear skies overhead. a bit more cloud creeping in. head of that band of cloud, lots
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of very warm and muggy weather. behind that band of cloud which is marked out by this weather front, there is some slightly cooler air trying to work its way in from the north—west. it is not good to make much progress, i have to during sunday. really dragging its heels across northern parts of scotland. the odd spot of rain. behind that, something cooler and fresher. ahead of it, long spells of sunshine once again and some real heat to be hand. notice the deep orange colour on our temperature chart. some were as likely to get 31 or 32 degrees. not much will change as we head to next week. it will turn a little cooler for a time. but there will still be lots of dry weather and plenty of strong sunshine. hello, good afternoon. the prime minister has warned her cabinet she will no longer tolerate public dissent over brexit following its collective agreement to back up plan for britain's due to religion share
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it with the european union. the marathon meeting yesterday, theresa may told ministers it was their duty to agree a blueprint for brexit. eu will say it will assess the
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