tv Dateline London BBC News August 5, 2018 11:30am-12:01pm BST
11:30 am
the headlines. the president of venezuela, says an attempt has been made on his life using drones carrying explosives. it happened during a live televised speech in the capital caracas. the president has blamed columbia. the government is publishing its plans to change organ donation in england to an "opt—out" system from 2020. at present, donors have to sign up to the nhs register downing street has distanced itself from a suggestion by the international trade secretary, liam fox, that a no deal brexit is now the most likely outcome of negotiations. children's entertainer, barry chuckle — one half of the chuckle brothers — has died at the age of 73. his comedy partner and brother paul said he'd lost his very best friend. now on bbc news, it's time for dateline london. hello and welcome to dateline london, the programme
11:31 am
in which some of the uk's leading columnists debate with foreign correspondents, who file their stories under the dateline "london". this week. zimbabwe holds its first post—mugabe election, but does the smile of the crocodile suggest itjust can't shake off the legacy of "uncle bob"? donald trump demands the special investigation into claims of russian meddling should stop. is he rattled orjust reckless? and theresa may is wined and dined by president macron, butjust who is seducing who? with me, vincent magombe, of africa inform international, a global network of the continent's journalists, john fisher burns, formerly chief foreign correspondent for the new york times, agnes poirier of the french magazine marianne, and from here in the uk, the conservative political commentator alex deane. thank you forjoining us. robert mugabe may have lost power last november, after 37 years in charge of zimbabwe, but he hasn't
11:32 am
lost his political timing. on sunday, after the candidates had ended their campaigns and hours before the polls opened, he called a news conference, denounced zanu—pf, his party, and suggested he might vote for nelson chamisa, leader of the opposition mdc, instead. embarrassing for emmerson mnangagwa, seeking a mandate of his own after deposing mr mugabe. known as the crocodile for his patience and cunning, mr mnangagwa has been posing as agent of change even though he was robert mugabe's close ally for about 50 years. despite mr mugabe's eleventh—hour denunciation, emmerson emerged victorious — and bloodshed returned to the streets of harare. vincent, does this result suggest that despite all those years working for robert mugabe, being at the heart of the regime, the former security minister, that he has convinced enough zimbabweans that he can be the agent of change? well, i don't think that if zanu—pf was to win it would not be
11:33 am
because of mnangagwa, it would be for the political dynamics of zimbabwe, where you find zanu—pf are still the historical type of party, cares about the land issues and so on, whereas the mdc are seen as liberal, town people, white farmers and so on. if zanu—pf was to win, it would be more because of those reasons more than anything else. but i don't think we can really know who has won. my problem is that mdc, i think, committed a very graphic mistake. they should not have gone into these elections, just because mugabe has gone, the mere fact of taking away his face did not take away issues to do with the independent electoral commission. and then we saw what the police and army did, shooting people and so on. so, they should have insisted that "if we are to take part in these elections, these are the issues that must be
11:34 am
determined, and if not, we're not going to". so they should set conditions in advance rather than complaining about results after? we have a similar situation in uganda where there is a very big democracy problem. the man has been there for 35 years, he's going. the bottom line thing that we campaigners for democracy are saying is that once museveni goes, there must be a negotiation between the different parties, including the ruling party, the nrm, to make sure we agree that pathway forward, perhaps even a transition period. so they should have discussed with mnangagwa the issue. didn't the mdc try boycotting before? zanu—pf just said, "0k, we have won!" i think the times are different. i think mnangagwa is desperately wanting international aid. he needs to be seen to be credible. if that had happened there is no way it would have gone forward like mugabe.
11:35 am
mugabe didn't care about anything, but mnangagwa wants... that is why he is playing all of these things, you know, putting the smile of a democrat. he's the continuity mugabe, isn't he? he is. ijust feel that right now, going forward, what may be needed is for them to sit down and talk, and i don't think the courts will resolve anything because they will rule in favour of zanu—pf. the court system has not changed, it is not very independent, just like the electoral commission. going to the courts may just be a waste of time. i think they need to sit down. mnangagwa has signalled he is ready to talk. because if he doesn't there will be total chaos, bloodshed. so it isn't enough to say there has "only" been, heavily underlined, six deaths. it's possible to talk. only six deaths but it could have been worse. what about the outside pressure? it is difficult, presumably, if the result is accepted, it is hard for the international
11:36 am
community if there is such a thing these days to apply anything significant. that is the thing. everyone seems to be quite unsettled. so this is the first election to be taking place after mugabe, and it all started quite peacefully, and on sunday, i heard that the turnout was huge, 80%. encouraging signs. a good thing, then suddenly we have the troops firing live ammunition on protesters, and of course the scale of six killed is terrible, but we used to have in the hundreds before. but then mdc and chamisa claimed victory so fast and the electoral commission was so slow in giving the results, and you have international observers saying, "we think something slightly dodgy happened, but perhaps not so much". and can ijust add, we also had parliamentary elections... at the same time.
11:37 am
and the opposition are not disputing the results, and it is two thirds for zanu—pf, so something is happening in a good fashion, and there are still some dodgy things happening. but this remains a regime with a military who still appear to call the shots. i have very personal reasons for thinking this is tragic. i met my now late wife there a0 plus years ago. the country has such potential, human and economic, and it is one of the most beautiful places i have ever been to. once again, all that potential appears to be being frustrated and denied, but i take heart from the fact we have seen this sort of process elsewhere in west africa, and time is running out for mnangagwa, i am sorry if i do not pronounce it correctly, but one way or another, i think there will be change, and probably something that will speed the change is
11:38 am
the new governance of south africa. i think ramaphosa is going to be a lot less patient. than maybe jacob zuma was with robert mugabe. what about the new president—elect, who was already the president effectively as a result of the coup last november, which they all said was not a coup, but everyone else did. clearly, robert mugabe says it was a coup. they have applied to return to the commonwealth. is that some potential leverage that could be used? i think that sort of soft power thing can always be used as leverage but i really question whether we should enter into such discussions with someone who was not just a parliamentary colleague or cabinet colleague of robert mugabe, he was his right—hand man. he was mugabe's hard man for a good chunk of time in the office, especially against minorities in zimbabwe. i also think the mdc has asked genuine objective questions that even if they get ruled against in court, should still be heard.
11:39 am
people on the electoral roll aged more than 140, i know in a country where mugabe can try and become president again in his 905, maybe longevity is good but it still seems unlikely. over 100 people at a single residential address. there are certain things that have been raised. the fact that the electoral commission said mnangagwa got 50.8%, the figure itself is very suspicious, to avoid a run—off. i looked at the figures. it was something like 36,464 votes out of 4.8 million cast. that was the margin that meant he avoided the run—off. it does look a bit suspicious. i think we need to understand that there is a very big problem that remains unresolved. and that problem, i am sorry to say, but when you say "commonwealth" and all these things, it is not going to be resolved from outside. 0utside pressure is important. even south african pressure? but as someone who takes part in pro—democracy activism on the continent,
11:40 am
in uganda for example, it is going to be the people's pressure. that is why it is tragic that mnangagwa is not stopping the army and police. if he's really saying that he is a changed man, let him give orders to the army and police to make sure they do not shoot people, because unless that pressure from within continues mounting in terms of people demonstrating and doing whatever. .. he won't because he needs it. he thrives on it. the country most needs racial reconciliation. people, regardless of colour, earning money and growing crops. zanu—pf's base is based on racism. what we shouldn't forget is mnangagwa is nothing without the army. those are the guys. his vice—president is a general, of course. and by the way, we know that if mnangagwa goes off at the next election, we will see the general putting himself forward. it is not going to be easy. i've said negotiations but also
11:41 am
a lot of pressure in terms of mass popular protests. we've not seen the end of it yet. now, you can set your watch by donald trump's tweets. some journalists charged with reporting the us president dojust that. on wednesday morning, right on schedule, mr trump let rip against robert mueller, the special prosecutor charged with investigating claims that the russians tried to influence the election which elevated mr trump to the white house. with the trial of his former campaign manager under way, and charges laid against a dozen russians, donald trump used his twitter account to tell his attorney generaljeff sessions that the inquiry "should stop". john, given that robert mueller is already looking at whether president trump amounts to obstruction ofjustice, it was a bit of a risk? i think we can see how this is going to progress. avoiding impeachment seems to me less and less likely if indeed indictment of a sitting president proves to be ruled unconstitutional. and i think it may not be too soon
11:42 am
to look beyond president trump. america has these deep, deep social divisions, social, racial and otherwise, and i don't think the end of trump, which to me is foreseeable, is going to by itself do much to alleviate those. there still will be major problems to address and we don't yet see, at least i don't see, anyone on the political horizon who looks like a candidate to do that. in a sense, we are almost getting to the debate where part of the population of america will disregard a lot of the stories because, as the president describes them, they will see them as "fake news", and telling the difference between truth and opinion gets harder and harder, particularly in the run—up to the mid—term elections. that is the thing. before we look at beyond trump, like john says will happen,
11:43 am
i am very interested at the moment in the 2018 mid—term elections. only a couple of days ago at the white house, you had briefings about what russia's vladimir putin is doing. and hacking political organisations, hacking elected officials, and this massive misinformation campaign on social media and to escalate divisive issues, triggering social unrest, and that is deeply worrying. i took a flicker of hope when i heard at the congress, there is this bipartisan initiative, and their aim is to wrestle back some authority over who decides on foreign policy, but also, and i'm not sure it is the solution, but more crushing sanctions on russia.
11:44 am
because in the end, it really takes the leadership of the american president to face russia and say, "we're not going to tolerate meddling into our elections". but are we going to get this from trump? that is another question. do you think we are at some point? i think the president will probably weather the storm, but history shows us that leaning on law officers when you are being investigated yourself is a bad idea. i tell you one thing, he does not have a huge profile in this country, but jeff sessions is a smart and capable person who is well able to stand up for himself. he can express his own views. and he's survived, which a lot of the people who donald trump has become dissatisfied with when he has appointed them have not. he's one of the darlings of the us right. he is one of the few, i think... trump has done a lot to transform the political landscape in the us, but sessions' charm on the right
11:45 am
endures, not least because he understands his brief. he's that rare thing, a lawyer doing legal things in a legal environment, and doing rather well. take all of that, i think trump is very ill—advised to push him into doing anything, because in the end he can overcome the politics of it. there are not enough americans who care whether there was interference, but they will care if it seems his role to uphold the constitution and the law of the united states is distorted to his own benefit. i think, as an african looking into america and all of that, i am completely amazed that this trump man who has done so much damage and also who has made so many enemies, notjust against his own people, bannon and everyone who stood for him and brought him there, but up till now, the american systems in place, whether it isjudiciary, the political establishment and so on, have failed to dislodge this character.
11:46 am
i dare to suggest that the people on this panel are not the target audience of donald trump! his base is holding up. he is still as popular with them as he was when he was elected. i think the constitutional processes are in train and will prevail, and those who doubt it should cast their minds back if they are old enough, and i think you have to be 60 or older to remember the saturday night massacre, when richard nixon attempted to save his presidency by dismissals. i think eventually he will be dealt with. trump seems to be using that playbook. it took a long time with nixon, and in the end he wasn't impeached. how long was it? if i recall rightly, richard nixon resigned in august 197a. yes. 1974, was that even a year past his second election? but he got in for a second term. but i think the processes are inexorable.
11:47 am
it might well be that they could not muster a majority or a two—thirds majority in the senate, but i wouldn't be surprised if trump goes before that. but the question you have to ask if that is the scenario you are aiming for, and you're of the broad left, do we actually prefer president pence? do we prefer an ideologue who knows how to get things done? that is the real question! someone who does not just tweet things but who gets into congress and grinds out a result? i'm not sure you do. i'm with you, alex! the bottom line is, i think american society has a problem. and this problem, i think, would be articulated so much by, say, black people in america, the racist divide and all those types of things. i'm not saying that all those people who voted trump are racists, but it's this whole thing of america, notjust america, but in europe, things swinging to the right now. i think it's a big problem. my mind goes back to a conversation i had with a prominent wall street broker at the height of the crisis of nixon, before his resignation. i've always remembered this,
11:48 am
as someone who has been a huge beneficiary, as i believe we all are, of american goodwill and power throughout my lifetime. he said, "america is a great enough country to be able to survive a period of bad government". laughter. now, in the 1960s, after president de gaulle of france blocked britain's attempt to join europe's political institutions, one cabinet minister so disdained the continent that whenever he travelled to paris, he took his own sandwiches. this week, there's been a british cabinet minister in france practically every day — the foreign secretary, the business secretary and the brexit secretary. i'd lay a pound to a euro that they've gone out of their way to praise the cuisine. theresa may, the prime minister, topped them all by securing an invitation for dinner with president emmanuel macron at his summer retreat on a small island on the cote d'azur. the present president is a lot warmer than general de gaulle, but is he as likely to say "non"? alex, in some ways people find it
11:49 am
surprising, all this charm offensive for the french, because in some ways, president macron is regarded as, if i can mix my languages, an uber—enthusiast for all things eu, and not the most pliable of leaders. in most negotiations, there will always be a school of thought that says, "press all the buttons and see what lights up". if you are not getting anywhere with route a, the negotiations at the table, try to speak to the political masters in the different states. that is what is being sought here. i think it is good that these leaders get some personal time together and seek to get on the same page. nobody around this table is of this school, but i can't really stand the "and what did you have for breakfast, mr president?" school of journalism. i'm not really interested in that but it is good they get personal time. in the end, given barnier‘s mandate comes from the member states, there is nothing wrong with heads of government meeting each other. it is peculiar that you might start with the most enthusiastic europhile of the lot, but if you are going to do it, isn't that the right place to start?
11:50 am
alex mentioned breakfast and true to form, the elysee has told us exactly what they had for dinner. i won't bore you with the details of that although a colleague of mine has just given me the list. but they haven't told us anything about substance, neither downing street nor the elysee. did you read anything into that? they did, ever so slightly. we know how long it was, one hour 45 minutes. we know they each had three top diplomats on each side. there are even pictures of it. but what is very interesting is the semantics used. they didn't talk about the brexit negotiations. they did talk about the future relationship between paris and london and i'm sure there was a lot of talk about security. and financial services, possibly. probably. it is the first time a french president has received any world leaders in his holiday hideaway in the french riviera. but it is not the first time, remember the day before
11:51 am
the meeting at chequers, theresa may met angela merkel. so she does what is expected of a serious leader, she meets her european counterparts. she knows also too well, despite the british media who think either macron or angela merkel will solve the problem, no, it is taking place in brussels, the eu are 27 states and will not bypass their colleagues. but it's always good to talk. they listen, though, don't you think? they listen, yes. our government took a more robust view on financial services, in my view, rightly. they said, "if you're going to exclude financial services from any agreement, we will exclude your access to trade done in london", and immediately michel barnier adopted a more emollient line. it suggests perhaps that we should have been more robust for some time. but that is driven by french interests, first and foremost, i think, rather than anyone else. and it didn't change the game, did it? we will still not get the reciprocity that we were looking for.
11:52 am
even the reduced model the chancellor was pushing is gone. and 85% of our gdp is based on services. this is a real problem. i said we will see. he backed off, we're still in a negotiation. most of these deals, as we've said before, get done in the last minutes. let us take the long view. i think they will remind me of something that was said about south africa during the worst of the apartheid years when i was correspondent there. there will be a resolution of this, mandela walking out of prison, becuse there has to be. the alternative is unacceptable, and in this case the absence of an agreement over brexit is unacceptable, not just to the united kingdom but to europe. that's the first point. we could have a no—deal brexit. it seems to me that this will be settled by the presidents of france and the chancellor of germany, and mrs may recognises that.
11:53 am
we still are quite a long way from a crunch point and i think they will override the technocrats in brussels, the barniers and junckers, and there will be a last—minute settlement, and i think we will look back and say, "why did we go through all that palaver?" you are all speaking as if everything is normal, theresa may is doing a very wonderfuljob and she is talking to these people here. i see something different. i see total desperation, the complete desperation of someone who is so frightened of things that she is ready now to commit and play some suicidal games. she's good at playing political suicide games, remember she took the gamble with the elections and almost lost it. she knows she's trying to break the rules. they have told her, barnier
11:54 am
and others, to not go behind their backs to talk to these guys, and she knows. so it is notjust going to talk, have a talk about the future of this and this, she's trying to sabotage the process. no, she's not. as barnier said... for me it is political suicide that will end up in a catastrophic thing, that you think is right, the no—deal scenario, which i think the majority of british people do not like. of course, our prime minister has for some time, rightly in my view, said that no deal is better than a bad deal. no deal has to be notjust, to use another term from these negotiations, "a fallback option that you make real", it has to be part of the negotiations. the other side has to believe that you're willing to walk away. isn't there a danger, though, that if you're on the one hand saying you are prepared to walk away but on the other hand proposing a compromise that everybody is unhappy with and you will have to compromise further, that you will simply antagonise the public when you finally settle for a compromise they don't like, having said, "we were quite willing to walk away"? the time will come when people will be thankful theresa may was there to try to find,
11:55 am
difficult as it is, a middle way through all of this. exactly. the question i would put to the doctrinaire brexiteers and remoaners is what realistically are her options in this case that would unite? it seems that what she's trying to do... have you thought about the fact she's trying to sell a product that is already rejected, stale. she's trying to sell, what is the place called — the chequers deal? it's already been rejected by her own ministers, people resigned and so on. people who say they are under obligation, it seems to me, to come up with a formula of their own that might pass through parliament and win the support at the british electorate. and if we can finish on a glimmer of hope... briefly. barnier, two days ago, said we agree on 80% of the withdrawal. voila! and even on the panel, we agree on 80%. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time.
11:56 am
dojoin us then. goodbye. hello there. the full uk forecast in a moment but first of all let me bring you up—to—date with what happened yesterday in spain and portugal. we have been speaking about the heat wave for a number of days and yesterday's top temperature reached 46.6 celsius in spain. we we re reached 46.6 celsius in spain. we were not far behind in portugal either. the weather will stay very hot here through sunday as well. temperatures peaking at 46, maybe 47
11:57 am
celsius. closer to home, this is how we started the day in wales. a glorious sunrise. it wasn'tjust wales that saw the cloud, there was also a cloudy start of the day across the midlands, east anglia, thick cloud in scotland and northern ireland. that cloud across the midlands will stay with others but will fade into the afternoon with increasing amount of sunshine, it is going to be a hot another hot day across the south and bring them. more cloud across the north—west with the threat of a few spots of rain in the western isles and northern ireland is as well but otherwise mainly dry. temperatures up otherwise mainly dry. temperatures up to 30 degrees in london. into this evening and overnight, the cloud will thicken. outbreaks of rain will turn heavy. some wet weather will sink southwards to reach northern ireland. away from that in england and wales it is another dry night and temperatures slow to come down again, so another
11:58 am
warm night for sleeping. lows of 16 degrees in london. monday's weather, still quite cloudy for scotland and northern ireland, a few showers here moving into parts of cumbria and northumberland as the day goes by. further south, another hot and sunny day. temperatures near normal though for scotland and northern ireland. we're going to season changes in weather pattern in the days ahead as weather pattern in the days ahead as we lose that hot weather across southern and eastern parts of england and the atlantic finally wa kes england and the atlantic finally wakes up. areas of low pressure spinning in bringing cloudy weather, outbreaks of rain and it is going to turn quite a bit cooler as well. the week ahead, spells of fairly heavy rain across northern and western areas midweek. temperatures down to normal, even in the south. this is bbc world news.
11:59 am
46 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
BBC News Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on