tv Business Briefing BBC News August 13, 2018 5:30am-5:46am BST
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this is the business briefing. i'm tim willcox. the headlines: the lira crisis deepens. turkey promises an action plan to reassure investors as its currency hits a new all—time low. plus trouble in the pipeline. could higher oil prices be on the way as new us sanctions hit iran? and on the markets, asia shares are down, hit by that fresh slide in the turkish lira. investors seeking safe havens, like the us dollar and swiss franc. we are waiting to hear what the finance minister has to say in a few hours' time, the son—in—law of president erdogan, and people seeking safe havens as well. more on the fear of an economic
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crisis. the country's new finance minister, the president's son—in—law beyrat albayrak, says he'll start implementing an action plan on monday to ease the concerns of investors with help for banks and small businesses. and he dismissed rumours that dollar—denominated bank accounts might be seized. that has given some slight relief to the lira, which hit a new record low in early asian trading after more combative words from president recep tayyip erdogan. he used three public addresses on sunday to step up attacks on the us, blaming it for the country's financial problems they advanced on us with different weapons, but they couldn't deal with provocations, with coup attempts, they now try to achieve by means of money. in plain language, this is called economic war.
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the turkish lira has slumped more than 40% against the dollar this year on growing concerns about mr erdogan‘s management of the economy, particularly his opposition to higher interest rates despite soaring inflation, as well as worsening relations with the us. on friday it slumped as much as 18%, the biggest one—day loss since 2001, after president trump said he was doubling tariffs on turkish steel and aluminium imports. let's talk to our asia business correspondent karishma vaswani. the impact there has been brutal as well, karishma? indeed, tim. there's been a great deal of nervousness about this issue among investors in asia and a number of analysts
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frankly have been saying the main risk factorfor frankly have been saying the main risk factor for investors this week is the lira crisis, that has displaced the trade war in many respects that had been the top worry for asia, the ongoing fight between the us and china if you will. lots of people i've been speaking to out here have said worries are growing that what's happening in turkey could actually spill over to the emerging markets space, and you're already seeing the reaction to this on asian markets, across—the—board, losing injapan, the nikkei more thani.5%, and that losing injapan, the nikkei more than i.5%, and that looks like a problem that won't go away any time soon, combined with the fact that there appeared to be fundamental economic issues in turkey. the us sanctions on turkey will also only worsen the country's situation because it means there's likely to because it means there's likely to be less demand for the turkish currency. longer term, analysts say asia wouldn't be that badly impacted in terms. markets but european banks, tim, i know this is something
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you will be talking about, european banks will be far worse off because they have more exposure to turkish assets than in this part of the world. the -- bnp paribas and others. looking at the impact on emerging markets where you are, what effect is this having there? you're already seeing an impact, we've seen some of the emerging market currencies under pressure, notjust because of this but because of the ongoing trade trends and is, as i mentioned, and the us dollar has strengthened and as a result south—eastern asian currencies in particular have been weakening —— trade tensions. there's always the worry when something like this happens here, the spillover effect in asia, it brings back memories of the asian financial crisis. nobody is saying that's where we're at at this point in time. two analysts
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i've been talking to say any long—term effect is likely to be contained. here's what one said from civ contained. here's what one said from c iv bag said earlier today. going forward it is strong, the fundamentals. they are vulnerable but they are not in the same situation as we saw in 1998 when we had the asian financial crisis when the exchange rates were fixed at thisjuncture. the exchange rates were fixed at this juncture. currencies are flexible. they are the shock absorber. domestic factors will matter, but more importantly for this week, chinese data will matter most in terms of whether they anchor and stabilise sentiment in the region. if china can show our data remains resilient after measures taken at the beginning ofjuly, then there will be some reassurance. if not, we could still be buffeted by fears from turkey and beyond.
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and our list of speaking to me earlier. from what you have heard there, the chinese data coming out later this week will be a big focus for asian investors —— an analyst. but before that, it will be turkey. thanks very much, karishma vaswani. we start with the price of oil, because there are warnings it could be about to rise further, piling more pressure on consumers and businesses around the world. on friday, the international energy agency said a current lull in price rises could be be only temporary as tough new us sanctions on iran loom within weeks. later today the oil producers' cartel opec will release their monthly report, which will be closely watched. so, let's show you some of the details. over the past year, brent crude has soared from around $50 a barrel last august to as much as $80 a barrel. as you can see it has eased back a bit in recent weeks. that's partly down to a deal agreed injune by opec, together with non member russia. they are increasing oil production
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by around a million barrels a day, roughly 1% of global supply, in order to relieve the pressure on prices. but that effect could soon be wiped out. iran currently produces almost 3.8 million barrels of oil a day, almost 4% of global supply. the us has pledged to choke that source off completely when it reapplies sanctions in november. we have an obligation to put maximum pressure on the regime's ability to generate and move money, and we will do so. and % of this campaign is the reimposition on iran's banking and
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energy sectors —— at the centre of. our focus is to work with countries importing iranian crude oil to get imports as close to zero as possible by november the fourth. zero. applause mike pompeo. colin smith is executive director of oil and gas research at panmure gordon. help us through this one. saudi arabia's agreed to ramp up supply, why are we seeing the price increase? for the moment prices have been a bit weaker because oil markets are worrying about where trade tensions go to. the issue is whether the iran sanctions, secondary sanctions from november, will take a lot of volume off the market and there is ambiguity about that because as we've just heard from mike pompeo, he talked about exports going to zero, they are 2.5 million roughly barrels a day at the moment. the question is the efficacy of those sanctions. there's a
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question about whether the us will grant waivers. the major takers of iranian brent crude are china and india, taking 8000 barrels a day. critical will be how firm europe stands behind thejcpoa. critical will be how firm europe stands behind the jcpoa. on china and india, has in the trump administration said that will continue, they aren't imposing vat, or not imposing their political will on that area, or has that moved? that hasn't necessarily moved —— that. there is ambiguity about waivers being granted in the way they were last time the sanctions we re they were last time the sanctions were arrived. -- imposed. is she still sticking to the fact europe and the wider world should be taking oil? that's exactly right. all of the signatories to thejcpoa, apart from the americans, who withdrew unilaterally, for the moment are fully behind it, and that includes
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the eu, france, germany and the united kingdom. as we saw yesterday, ambassadorjohnson, the us ambassador to the uk, was in the broadsheets basically urging the uk to stand with america on this. colin, thank you very much indeed. let's brief you on some other business stories. uk firms are struggling to recruit staff after a steep fall in people arriving from from the european union according to a new report. some 40% of employers have found it harder to fill vacancies in the past 12 months, says the chartered institute of personnel and development. however, it also said a tighter labour market was boosting wages for some. saudi arabia's sovereign wealth fund is interested in helping elon musk take tesla private according to bloomberg. the saudi public investment fund has a stake of almost 5% in the electric car firm. mr musk announced his ambition to take the company off the stock market last week, claiming he had secured funding for the deal which could cost some $80 billion. that is it, we are back in a few
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moments' time. surveys by consumer groups have revealed that punctuality and customer satisfaction with britain's railways has slumped over the past ten years. which? found thatjust 62% of commuters were satisfied with the punctuality and reliability of services this year, down from 72% a decade ago. joe lynam reports. new timetables, thousands of council
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services, angry commuters, strike action and rising costs. it's not been a happy time for many whale users and it's evident in a detailed satisfaction survey over the past decade. a study of transport focus data showed overall satisfaction with rail punctuality and reliability has fallen from 79% a decade ago to 73% today, but regular commuter satisfaction fell even further to 62% in that time. on top of that, rail fares could be set to rise by 3.5% next year. that's because train fa re 3.5% next year. that's because train fare increases are tied to the higher measure of inflation known as rpi. it could add £150 to an average long—distance commuter. i understand that our passengers have had a really tough time over the last few months, i'm a regular commuter myself, but we have to work together with a long—term plan, that's what rail companies are doing and that plan is going to make journeys better over the coming yea rs, journeys better over the coming years, it's going to improve the economy and better connect
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communities up and down the country. to compound things for some train users, another strike by rmt rail users, another strike by rmt rail users is set for next month in a very long—running dispute about guards on trains. joe lynam, bbc news. coming up at 6am on breakfast, dan walker and louise minchin will have all the day's news, business and sport. plus more on reports of airline passengers having to wait as long as 2.5 hours in passport control queues at the uk's biggest airport, heathrow. that's significantly longer than the border force's own 45—minute target. this is the briefing from bbc news. the latest headlines: turkey has pledged it will take action to calm the financial markets after its currency plunged to a new record low in asian trading. the lira has lost 20% of its value against the us dollar in the past week following a trade disagreement with washington. 40% since january.
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there's been tight security in washington as a small number of far—right supporters held a rally near the white house. organisers had said up to 400 people would be marching but farfewer attended. they were outnumbered by a large crowd of anti—nationalist protestors. now it's time to look at the stories that are making the headlines in the media across the world. we begin with the business page of the gulf news. it covers the story of the economic crisis in turkey and the lira, which hit a new record low in early asian trading, after more combative words from president erdogan. he gave three speeches on sunday about the crisis. he gave three speeches on sunday about the crisis. moving on to the times, and the news that borisjohnston has
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landed back in britain and is refusing to apologise over the burqa row that has split the tory party. and now over to china, and a really interesting story on the front page of the new york times. for decades women were restricted to having one child, but now the government wants them to have more, but it's not going well. we'll explain it all. and the daily telegraph online has a picture of the british relay team and star of the show, dina asher—smith, the first british athlete ever to complete a european treble.
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