tv BBC Business Live BBC News August 13, 2018 8:30am-9:01am BST
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this is business live from bbc news with alice baxter and tim wilcox. turkey's tumble continues — the [ire reaches new lows, as the country's finance minister promises an action plan. live from london, that's our top story on monday 13th august. turkey's central bank says it's ready to take all necessary measures to ensure financial stability amid growing tensions with the united states and a mountain of debt held by turkish companies. also in the programme, that worry is spreading around the world with the indian ruppee also hitting a record low against the us dollar, we'll be live in mumbai with the latest. a sea of red on asian shares. and it is a similar start here in
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european markets. and computers that read your emotions. we'll speak to the company helping some of the world's biggest brands use technology to understand what we feel about their video adverts. donald trump has tweeted that it is great that many harley—davidson owners plan to boycott the firm as a row over tariffs escalates. today we want to know, does it matter where an iconic brand is made? let us know — just use #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. turkey's economic troubles are spreading as the country tries to head off a full—blown crisis. the government says it will lay out an economic action plan as markets and investors continue to loose confidence in the lira. during asian trading,
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the lira hit a new record low of 7.24 to the us dollar, although it has since recovered some ground. in the last few hours, the turkish central bank has laid out details to inject about $10.5 billion into the financial system by reducing the amount of us dollars, turkish lira and gold that banks have to hold. however, it remains to be seen if that will have a broader impact. so far, the turkish lira has lost over 40% of its value against the us dollar this year. a major concern is rapidly deteriorating relations with the united states. on friday, president trump doubled the import tariffs on steel to 50% and aluminum to 20%. another big concern for investors is the $242.5 billion of debt that turkey's private companies
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hold. much of that is in us dollars and is becoming increasingly expensive for them to repay. with us now is andrew walker, our economics correspondent. we saw the finance minister last week, the son—in—law of president erdogan, really gone through quite a sweaty time at a press conference, mopping his brow, a lot of analysts are saying, you have to raise interest rates sharply to head this off, but they don't want to do that, do they? no, a lot of pressure exerted by president erdogan and his government on the central bank to refrain from raising interest rates. last week, the finance minister did actually say that the markets rather welcome this in principle, that central bank independence is important, but it is clear that
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president erdogan is opposed to it, he once used the remarkable phrase, describing himself as the enemy of interest rates. he says that he sees higher interest rate is something that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer, but there is no question that a lot of people any markets think that is exactly what is needed, to stabilise the currency and to start bearing down on really quite serious inflation problems. and this is a result of the growth at all costs strategy for businesses — how important is the american raising tariffs inside this argument and the reasons for it going this way? that is not the underlying vulnerability, that came from some of the stuff that alice was talking about, the very high—level is of foreign currency debt, which become much more expensive to repay, and more expensive to service as interest rates in the united states are going up. also, and that is in turn links to the fairly large deficit in turkey's trade with the
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rest of the world, something like 5.5% of annual national income. now, thatis 5.5% of annual national income. now, that is not quite as high as we have seenin that is not quite as high as we have seen in some financial crises of the past, but it is uncomfortably difficult. in that context, no question that the spat with the united states, the political stand—off and the resulting increase in tariffs, i think it was the spark that ignited extremely dry tinder. what about the contagion factor? how does it spread potentially? we have seen does it spread potentially? we have seen some does it spread potentially? we have seen some fallout in emerging markets, in the values of their currencies overnight, and i am not surprised that there has been a degree of contagion there. i wouldn't expect it to be that severe. financial markets have become pretty discriminating about which countries they focus on, and i think the likelihood is that they may be more keen to look at countries that have underlying weaknesses, problems with their economic policies, but a generalised
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retreat from emerging markets? i don't think it will aggravate what is going on because of the rises in interest rates in the united states, pulling money back there anyway. but so pulling money back there anyway. but so far that has been a relatively orderly process. andrew, thank you very much. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. shares in the german pharmaceuticals and chemicals giant bayer have fallen almost 10% in early trading in frankfurt. it's the first time they've been traded since an american court ruled that one monsato's weedkillers was linked to a man's cancer on friday and order a damage pay—out of nearly $300 million. bayer completed its takeover of monsanto in june. monsanto denies the cancer link and says it will appeal. uk firms are struggling to recruit staff, after a steep fall in people arriving from from the european union, according to a new report. some 40% of employers have found it harder to fill vacancies in the past 12 months, says the chartered institute of personnel and development.
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however, it also said a tighter labour market was boosting wages for some. german energy group innogy says it will sell 41% stake in its $2.6 billion offshore wind farm to two japanese firms. the move will give japan's electric power development and kansai electric power a stake in a regulated energy infrastructure asset on the continent. innogy will remain majority owner of the triton knoll project with a remaining stake of 59%. india's currency hit a record low today. it touched 69.62 to the dollar. it's recovered, but only slightly. yogita limaye is in mumbai, why is the rupee tumbling? well, part of the reason is what is
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happening in turkey, we have seen lots of foreign investors who prefer sabre currencies like the us dollar over currencies from emerging markets, so that kind of impact on the rupee we saw on friday and this morning, when attached that record low. it has recovered slightly to about 69.48 when i last looked, but the underlying weakness in the rupee has been around for a few months now, and that is down to the widening indian trade deficit and its widening current—account deficit, and that is because of higher global oil prices that we have seen. 0il higher global oil prices that we have seen. oil prices in the last few months have been much higher than they were at the start of the year, that always has a big impact on india because this country has a large oil import bill, it buys almost all of the fuel, more than 80% of the fuel aid users, from overseas, and in fact tomorrow we
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will have trade data coming out, data forjune showed it was at more than a five year high, but if it reaches that 70 rupee to a dolomite, people will see it tanking. —— to a dollar. let's stay in region, where tokyo's benchmark nikkei index dropped nearly 2% to a newar one year—low on monday as turkey's lira — as you've been hearing — plunged on tensions between ankara and washington, fanning fears of possible wider financial instability. elswhere, asian shares were a sea of red as investors fled to safer assets such as the dollar, swiss franc and yen. china's blue chip index shed 0.7%, while hong kong stocks lost 1.5% as the local dollar fell to the limits of its trading band. much of the action was in currencies, with the euro gapping lower as the lira took another slide. a subdued start for european shares, some analysts commenting
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that global risk aversion is back with a vengeance. and kim gittleson has the details of what's ahead on wall street today. this week on wall street, it's all about american retailing. we'll be getting earnings from walmart, the world's biggest retailer, and we're expecting the company to show that sales increased. we'll also get earnings from macy's and jc penney. now, both department stores have struggled recently to attract american consumers into their physical stores. investors will be curious to see if either company has managed to fix their sluggish sales. then we'll also get a bit of economic data — for retail sales in july. there, we are expecting to see an increase of 0.1%. the question is where americans are spending their retail dollars and, of course, what that means for brick and mortar stores across the united states. joining us is supriya menon,
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senior multi asset strategist at pictet asset management. we have been seeing the problems with the lira, let's look at other currencies, particularly the pound. yeah, we have seen the pound tumble lower against the dollar, a little less about the euro, but still weaker, and there are a couple of reasons for this, i think. investors have started to price in a higher probability of a no—deal brexit, thatis probability of a no—deal brexit, that is part of the reason, but strangely enough it was the bank of england's meeting recently where they did actually hike, of course, but they pointed to a lower run rate, a sustainable run rate of growth in the years to come, which is quite a dovish argument. it means the trajectory of the long—term should be lower, not higherfor the pound. did they say in january or february it was because of weather, not the climate? so things are slugging slightly more positive. ——
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so slugging slightly more positive. —— so things are looking. as you say, the pound dropping to its lowest level in a year against the dollar, but it has recovered somewhat. it has recovered a bit against the euro in particular. it isa against the euro in particular. it is a bit harder to look at any currency, save perhaps the yen, against the dollar, where it is stronger against every currency, but against the euro, quite a lot priced into the pound right now, and there is also the fact that sentiment is quite depressed on the pound, and the turkey crisis, potential crisis, would hit the euro area rather harder than the uk. one company under a lot of pressure is tesla, saudi arabia seems to have taken a real interest in this, elon musk is being shorted by a lot of hedge fundsis being shorted by a lot of hedge funds is — what you make of that, the fact that he put a figure in terms of the bid? that is part of the problem now, we note that this
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is the most shorted stock in the us, i think about 25% of the shares in public hands are actually in the hands of short sellers. now, he did sort of... the problem was that he attached a share price to a plan to ta ke attached a share price to a plan to take the company private that is somewhat in an incipient stage, so i think investors have a right to be sceptical here. now, the most logical avenue to take the company private would be through an lbo, leveraged buyout, which is difficult because the debt is deep into junk territory, and it would be double the size of the next highest lbo in history. interesting debate about the value of a public versus a private company, you will be sticking around to look at the business pages later in the programme. i will. are a lot still
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to come. computers that read your emotions. we'll speak to the company helping some of the world's biggest brands use technology to understand what we feel about their video adverts. you're with business live from bbc news. there are fewer people going shopping and they are spending less, that's according to new figures published this morning. signalling more gloom for high street retailers. sean farrington is in northampton, where m&s closed its doors this weekend, to find out more. 0n the high street in northampton, they have an m&s closed just at the weekend, bhs closed as well, an issue that lots of high street around the country will have, and these reports show how difficult it is, because consumer spending in july was down, and footfall, the
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amount of people hitting the high street, was down. diane, you put the stats together, what is the big trend that you are seeing? footfall decreasing seems to be quite a common story now. that is the long—term trend, and of course with the internet, i7—i8% spenders on the internet, inevitably the number of people in the high street is going to decreased, and we are used to that, but to be honest it has levelled out a lot now. less than i% every month, year on year, drop. so it is not a huge amount. what is the pinch point is how much people are spending. so what is working? well, good retail is working. the retailers that get it right understand their consumers, get it right. but you know, household budgets are tight, people are pushed in various ways in terms of their spending profile, wages onlyjust keeping up with inflation or lagging slightly behind, so people are feeling the strain, and there is so much more to spend our money on
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these days, and that is where retail is finding the challenge. a big issue for a lot of retailers, do they put in a building like this one now that m&s has closed? lots of stories on our web page, one this morning that was picked up by bbc radio 5 live this morning, about the mass dues at passport control at heathrow injuly. the mass dues at passport control at heathrow in july. —— the mass dues at passport control at heathrow injuly. —— massive queues. 0ne listener told us i went to sicily for a three—day holiday with my australian girlfriend, she had to wait three hours to get through passport queues on the way back. more bad news for the high street as well, more news about that house of fraser buyout. and what it means for the pension fund members as well. absolutely. your're watching business live — our top story.
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turkey is expected to unveil emergency measures to shore up its currency, the lira, which has continued to spiral downwards in value. the central bank has acted to increase liquidity in the banking system. a quick look at how the markets are faring. in asia, a sea of red, a similar picture in europe, all the major indices downwards into the red as well. artificial intelligence, ai, is all around us, with the likes of alexa growing in popularity. but now some computers have the ability to discern how we're feeling, even when we're not entirely sure. this exists, and it's called affective computing or emotional ai, and means software is able to recognise and interpret human emotions. it combines the fields of computer science, psychology, and cognitive science.
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the value of this technology is growing exponentially and predicted to be worth nearly $54 billion by 2021. and the possible usages are incredibly varied, but health sectors and media and entertainment are likely to see the most wide—ranging applications in the coming years. 0ne company, realeyes, was one of the first to develop this potentially revolutionary technology. at the moment, it's largely focused on advertising, helping clients like coca—cola and mars to really understand how customers are reacting to their products. with us now is mihkeljaatma, chief executive and co—founder of realeyes. many thanks for coming in. thank you so many thanks for coming in. thank you so much for having me!|j many thanks for coming in. thank you so much for having me! i wanted to begin by asking you for your definition of affective computing, or emotion ai, as you call it.|j
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think the call the mike cole definition is teaching commuters to understand how we feel, there will be lots of technology around us today, and it is an important problem to solve to make sure that technologies can understand us as human beings and our emotional dimension as well. you started this at oxford university, it has been going for ten years, but before the world really knew much about al. how do you pick up on the human response to things? and can it be codified just through facial expressions, without using all the other things like tone of voice and body language? you can get very far with just the face, and that is where we are specialists, and we have been doing that for ten years, as you said. the ways you can do that with advancesin said. the ways you can do that with advances in deep learning and hardware algorithms, how the datasets we can feed to those algorithms have improved, that has
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massively made it clever. and also a standard webcam ? massively made it clever. and also a standard webcam? all we need is an internet connected webcam, and we can tell you how people are feeling, sad, confused, paying attention to what is shown on screen. do they like the chocolate bark they are eating? that we haven't done yet! but the future of retail is one of the areas we are looking at, amazon go isa the areas we are looking at, amazon go is a concept that many customers are trying to map out, so the retail space will get much smarter too.- its heart, your company is about watching reaction to adverts and feeding that back to the companies that have employed you, so you are gauging the human reaction to whatever you have been test. at the moment, i know some of your big clients include mars, coca—cola, but you have ambitions to move into other spaces, like health care and education. in what capacity will you be able to do that? there are multiple options to go for, but the
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one we are very passionate about is the mental health issue. it is beginning, it is going to get better, and we're going to spend so much time with our devices that they will be more informed about our states tha n will be more informed about our states than our doctors. there's so much debate about the gathering of data, how it is used — how do you approach people with this? how do you allay people's concerns about, yet again, more information being taken from an individual to be used for marketing, for business reasons? you have to be very clear with people up front and put them in full control from day one, and every bit of data is collected against very clear consent of what we will do with it. is it like a survey, for example, where people wittingly take part? that is one way of doing it. but you tell them the data is being mined fora but you tell them the data is being mined for a specific reason? yes, do
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understand them better, so for people it is easier than taking surveys and answering questions, but thatis surveys and answering questions, but that is not the only way. imagine a scenario where you will get your netflix subscription for half the price if you share some data. there is so much ways of doing value exchange with people against their data, i think that will be a big thing go forward. brevity is such a big concern. i'm afraid we are out of turn. —— privacy. but very good to talk to. thank you for having me, thank you. in a moment we'll take a look through the business pages but first here's a quick reminder of how to get in touch with us. stay up to date with the business news on the business live web page. there is insight and analysis from a tea m there is insight and analysis from a team of editors right around the globe. and we want to hear from you too. get involved on the business live web page. 0n
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too. get involved on the business live web page. on twitter, we are @bbcbusiness. business live, what you need to know, when you need to know. let's see what other stories are being talked about on social media. we have picked out a couple of stories that piqued our interest, including... donald trump? we asked viewers in the morning about this one, didn't we? we asked them, does it matter where an iconic brand is made? it picks up ona an iconic brand is made? it picks up on a harley davidson story, and including two lizzie and jeff, it matters to millions of laid—off workers forced into welfare poverty. because of the higher tariffs, harley—davidson, the iconic motorbike maker, it said it might be moving outside the united states because it could not compete with these higher prices, it said it
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would cost up to $35 million a year. donald trump has welcomed some drivers saying they would boycott the company themselves, rather than see it move out. and it has brought to mind the mini and jaguar land rover, moving overseas, does it affect the likeability of a product when it moves overseas? lots of reaction, jf said, managed right, it doesn't, except where local craftsmanship is foundational to a brand's credibility and story, brand heritage is not a function of location and can continue to trade on national origin regardless. supriya is back to talk through the papers, what did you make of this story, this support on the ban on one company? well, alice, interesting to me that it underlines the complexity of global trade is today. by some estimates, about 40%
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of global trade occurs between companies, and if you think about sectors that have those globalised production lines, supply chains, vehicles and autos are really in the thick of it. a lot of viewers, though, saying it does matter, lizzie saying scotch whisky and a swiss watches, you know, if one is made in bangkok, a cheaper option, the consumer often picks up on that. absolutely, and i think more recently we have also seen bmw caught in the cross hairs of the threat of auto tariffs, because it is an iconic german brand, but if you think about its biggest production centre, it is... our brand continues, but we're running out of time, you have been watching business live! thanks for watching! we had some pretty heavy rain
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yesterday evening and overnight across eastern part of england and scotland, you can see from the satellite imagery through this morning the whole mass of cloud across northern and eastern areas, something quieterfurther across northern and eastern areas, something quieter further west, across northern and eastern areas, something quieterfurther west, with clearer spells. some sunny spells through today, especially across southern parts, but heavy and thundery showers continuing, mainly across eastern areas. through this morning, quite wet weather across scotla nd morning, quite wet weather across scotland will gradually clear away, so scotland will gradually clear away, so dry weather during this afternoon with just the odd shower here and there, looking largely dry with cloud across northern ireland. southern areas, dry weather with sunny spells, across eastern parts, the east midlands, add into yorkshire, towards number, the far north—west, the risk of torrential rain ina north—west, the risk of torrential rain in a short space of time, hail, lightning mixed in, and as i mentioned, more in the way of cloud
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hanging on in scotland through this afternoon. i7—20 celsius in the north and west, further south and east temperatures getting up to 24 celsius. through this evening and tonight, those temperatures will continue for a time before slowly easing away across eastern parts, looking at variable amount of cloud into tuesday morning, those overnight temperatures getting down to 12-15. overnight temperatures getting down to 12—15. during tuesday, we have got more cloud and rain spreading into scotland, northern ireland, associated with his cold front moving in. elsewhere, this ridge of high pressure will keep things largely settled across england and wales, so mostly dry, some sunshine as well, more cloud increasing in the north and west, with it rain spreading through scotland and northern ireland, a patchy, light rain, and towards the east of higher ground across scotland looking dry up. quite warm across the south—east, actually, with sunshine, up upl26 up . 26 degrees. by wednesday, that
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up to 26 degrees. by wednesday, that weather brand will have intensified, giving a heavy spells of rain, slow—moving rain across scotland and northern ireland, eventually far north—western parts of england, northwest wales, but to the south—east, with sunshine, feeling quite warm, up to 27 degrees. so through this week, windy in the north—west, woollaston driest in the south—east, but even here turning pressure by thursday and into the end of the week. that is all from me, bye—bye. the warmest and dried. —— warmest and driest in the south—east. hello, it's monday, it's 9 o'clock, i'm victoria derbyshire. welcome to the programme. rough sleeping will be eradicated in england within ten years, the government promises today. but since 2010, the number of rough sleepers has gone up every single year — so is it really achievable? we'll ask people who've slept rough, homelessness charities and politicians.
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i slept rough on and after for five weeks which was a very challenging experience. it made me grow as a person. i was hopeless for five yea rs person. i was hopeless for five years and it was very very hard. if you too have slept rough, tell us what you think is the best way to help people off the streets. a controversial pesiticide could be banned in the uk after this man won $290 million in damages against biotech firm monsanto —
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