hello, and a warm welcome to dateline london, i'mjane hill. today we're assessing significance — of the first papal visit to ireland for nearly a0 years — and of some seismic shocks in us politics, as two key former allies of president trump face prison. with me are: the columnist for the guardian newspaper polly toynbee. catherine pepinster, former editor of the catholic newspaper the tablet. suzanne lynch, the washington correspondent for the irish times. and the american writer and broadcasterjef mcallister. as we go to air, pope francis, the leader of the world's 1.3 billion catholics, has landed in ireland, on the first papal visit to the country for nearly a0 years. more than a million people gathered in dublin in 1979 to see popejohn paul ii, about a third of the population at that time. then, divorce was outlawed, as was homosexuality, and no—one could imagine that proposals to legislate for abortion would be one day approved in a referendum. this weekend, about a tenth of the population is expected to turn out, in a changed country, which has been hugely damaged

by revelations of sexual abuse within the church, and its cover—up. catherine — how significant is this visit, which we are told was very much the pope's idea? it is going to be important for pope francis himself i think because not only the eyes of ireland will be on him but catholics around the world. ireland has changed. many catholics have changed, too. this visit comes after a whole series of terrible revelations around the world, in america, chile and recent reports here in britain. it'll be interesting to see how he is received by the irish people. and what he has to about abuse in itself. we know he will be making

three speeches over the course of the weekend, three addresses. an assumption he will at some stage the people who are survivors of abuse. where does the hard—hitting element of the visit, 7 at what point does he have to address this had an?” of the visit, 7 at what point does he have to address this had an? i think he does, he put out an apology in the last few days about abuse. he said the church's action on abuse had not been timely. he talked about what a terrible thing it was but i think people want to know a bit more. we have been waiting five yea rs more. we have been waiting five years since pope francis was elected to do more about the abuse scandal in the church. i think we want to see some actual action. there has been a commission that is supposed to look into abuse. everyone was pleased when he invited abuse survivors including mhari collins

ireland. those survivors left because they felt the commission was not making progress. they want him to do not making progress. they want him todoa not making progress. they want him to do a lot more. unless he does more, the whole focus of people's attention will remain on the abuse scandal. and the rest of what he is supposed to be about willjust disappear into the dust. he is not the pope for the sexual abuse of children, he is the pope who is supposed to be leading the catholic church. but this is such a massive issue, iam beginning church. but this is such a massive issue, i am beginning to think this issue, i am beginning to think this is the worst crisis probably the catholic church has faced since the reformation. you are just back from ireland. what was your sense of it? i visited in the last week where i

am from, huge expectations for the pope to do something more thanjust apologise essentially. people want specifics now. i think it is fair to say it has been more negative than positive, high—profile people like the former president of ireland, a doctoral student in canon law. outspoken, vocal in the last few weeks about the church's views on homosexuality and more. it is not pope francis's first visit to ireland, he learned english in 1980 in dublin. a very different place then. different vestiges of the catholic church very much present in ireland. today, he is going to be greeted by one of the few openly gay leaders in the world, the shock. let us in the newspaper this morning

from practising catholics who are basically chanted justify and say, listen, there are two sides of this, we are trying to separate our faith from the institution of catholicism. they are looking for guidance. why are we supporting this church which has had so many problems of abuse of children? a moment of reckoning, i think, for catholics in ireland. i think, for catholics in ireland. i think the timing of this could not be worse, a few weeks into the pennsylvania report. it has brought back the whole issue of church abuse to the four. despite everything we know and we are discussing will there be for some people an element of excitement and pride that he is there? island proportionally still has the third highest churchgoing

population in europe. exactly. in the recent census more than 75% of people ticked the box saying they are catholics. despite the influx of different religions. things like funerals and the traditional wake are a huge part of irish culture. many people still get baptised. catholicism still part of the irish identity. countries like poland, catholicism so important in the formation of irish national identity, when ireland emerged as a nation in the early 20th century, it defined irishness. some interesting thoughts this week. in many ways, the 1979 visits, it has been written, was in a sense by pope john paul, trying to legitimise an institution on the wane in ireland. it was about to start declining,

ireland had joined the european union in the 1970s. agitation for social change. in 1979, it seems like the beginning of the end in a sense for the catholic church. the catholic church has not kept pace with social change. we could apply this to a lot of places. the influence of the catholic church in ireland has been more pernicious than most places. if you look at the scandals, not just the than most places. if you look at the scandals, notjust the recent scandals, notjust the recent scandals about the abuse of children by clerics, but you look at the magdalen laundry scandals. any young girl who could be swept away and locked up forever as a slave of the church in these laundries. the 800 infa nt church in these laundries. the 800 infant deaths, mothers and babies murdered by nuns, infants. when the pope toxin a sentimental way about

the little ones, looking after them, the little ones, looking after them, the sentiment has to be far more profound to stop —— when the pope talks in a sentimental way. it is true of all of the religions, the more close they are, the more abuse there will be in every front. whether it is mormons or whoever, if it is closed, bad stuff goes on. apologise and will not be enough, he has to project the future and say the heart of this was the catholic church's attitude towards sexuality. we cannot the anti—gay. we can speak anti—sex outside of marriage. most of all, contraception. it is extraordinary, the catholic church's behaviour in africa, it has actively spread paints by refusing to allow contraception to be given out. in areas where there is a lot of those.

—— actively spread aids. areas where there is a lot of those. -- actively spread aids. could we hear things this weekend which will despite a verse from pope francis? hear things this weekend which will despite a verse from pope francis7|i think despite a verse from pope francis?” think every pope for the last 20 yea rs, think every pope for the last 20 years, maybe not john think every pope for the last 20 years, maybe notjohn paul but certainly benedict has made good noises about the child abuse scandals and trying to do good things to fix this terrible blight. one of my dayjobs as a lawyer representing child sex abuse victims, some things against the catholic church and they fightjust as hard now as they ever did. catholic church and they fightjust as hard now as they ever didm catholic church and they fightjust as hard now as they ever did. it is not all historical? needs to be institutional reform. words are not enough. interesting recent

revelations, it turns out high cardinals, well esteemed princes of the church, turn out to have been abusers themselves. three major american dioceses the nature report to authorities. the raw complaints turns out to be around 10% of active priests in these three dioceses. it is baked in. there needs to be getting all the secret wreckers to the civil authorities because actually the catholic church has better records than the nazis! wreckers about internal practices. —— records. there needs to be a house—cleaning. it is supposed to be infallible, all of these guys who have gotten around him are difficult to dislodge. there has to

bea difficult to dislodge. there has to be a house—cleaning, pay the money to the survivors, a willingness to do so. we are apologising regularly and profoundly, safeguarding at the bottom level and report all problems to the authorities. should we be seeing concrete announcements, of actual affirmative action, leadership from the top, which is what good leadership should be? is this weekend at the time and the place for this kind of announcement? i don't think pope francis has been preparing for that. he may surprise us preparing for that. he may surprise us all. i think the guys have to be a difference —— ithink us all. i think the guys have to be a difference —— i think there does have to be a different approach. a document which examines abuse and its causes and says something about how they will do with it in future. at the moment, we have in the

church, priests who investigate abuse. i think the day has come when you just cannot do that any more, however credible the particular priests are to investigate all the bishops to go off to different countries to see what has been going on, he needs to draw far more on the laity and gets them far more involved in the investigation. that would be a move catholics would really like to see. thank you. we will see what emerges this weekend and what sort of numbers turn out to see pope francis. we've spoken many times during the trump presidency about ‘another extraordinary week in washington‘ — has this week been, politically, the most shocking? two seniorformer aides to donald trump are now each facing a prison sentence — his former campaign manager paul manafort, after being found guilty on eight charges including bank and tax fraud — and his former personal lawyer michael cohen, who admitted multiple counts of fraud and campaign finance violations, and implicated donald trump in criminal behaviour, asserting that he had ordered cohen to pay money to two women during the presidential race.

jef — has this week been more serious for trump than any other? that is an interesting question and i guess the answer has to be yes because it is a sign that all of his bombast and brilliant diversion and denigration of the free press and the justice system and of anyone who opposes him has limits. the institutions can fight back. law does mean something. he says he is against clipping where the subordinate is made to turn on the bossin subordinate is made to turn on the boss in order to avoid prison. a dreadful thing apparently now because it is coming to him. his supporters remain apparently com pletely supporters remain apparently completely in favour of him as

before. fox news, rupert murdoch, echo chamber that trump has has been beset by the mean democrats and hillary clinton, all that kind of thing continues. this isn't his only legal problem, he has other ones. civil lawsuits against them. stormy daniels has a civil lawsuit, he is going to have to testify under oath. a woman has sued him for defamation because he said she was a liar when she accused him of sexual harassment and groping. in the next six months he will have to testify under oath. these things are building up, the new york attorney general investigating his taxes. the trump foundation... a harbinger of trouble for him and a sign of how it is going to be from now on. the republican incumbents are not anywhere close to impeachment, he is anywhere close to impeachment, he is

a fighter his whole lifetime record to deny obscure, fight, delayed. he did that with his new york real estate dealings. as president, he can at the prevailing constitutional doctrine. it depends how the elections go in the fall and a lot of other things. interesting. touching on so much of what may occu py touching on so much of what may occupy us for the next six months. you are based in washington for the irish time. we have been here so many times with this being the thing. a couple of things to note, yes, michael cohen, his former love r, yes, michael cohen, his former lover, incriminated donald trump, said he had been directed by the president to pay off these women. —— his former lawyer, michael cohen. it

is going to be very difficult to improve, affecting the election campaign. that is number one, donald trump knows that. he suggested in an interview this week, you can suggest ipaid interview this week, you can suggest i paid off these women to keep it from my wife. the republicans are still backing the guy in a sense. worth noting the way the democrats have responded. always a softly, softly approach by democrats. they don't want to mention the impeachment word at this point. nancy pelosi has instructed a a lot of democrats not to overplay their hand. interesting because they are fearful that this may backfire. that actually if you start talking about impeachment republicans will say democrats only care about impeachment, we need to get out and vote in big numbers in november. in saying that, it all boils down to the mid—term elections because if democrats win control of congress,

in particular it looks like they may win control of the house of representatives, they will be in a position to move to impeach the president. he knows that. that is the elephant in the room and it is like democrats are stopping themselves from threatening that in case they overplay their hand. that is looming in the background. all about november. the two thirds majority. it is unthinkable the democrats to do so well they could win two thirds of both houses in which case to start an impeachment that goes nowhere looks as if he has been exonerated, a huge mistake. also a political mistake because donald trump ayes basis so low that they seem washington as a swamp of they seem washington as a swamp of the politicians trying to impeach him. they will see it as purely political. not a question of the core purely. —— of the courts. his

base remains so loyal, he is in a strong position. reporters co nsta ntly strong position. reporters constantly talking to trump —based people who think he is a pretty dreadful guy. we think the stuff he does is pretty horrible but nevertheless he is delivering, that is the thing. his base has not shifted, has it? he has cut taxes, jobs are great, economy booming, the supreme court, we have got what we want. everything is going great. he is our guy, even if we don't like him. ithink is our guy, even if we don't like him. i think that is quite significant. your take on this? i am interested in what follows is because i get the impression from talking to americans and being over there myself recently that many people seem to now want the american president to not be the respectable figure who is the head of state but they want somebody who is more like a ceo. you don't care that much

about what he gets up to find the scenes, you just want someone who delivers. they want what he has, the former chair of the apprentice programme to be the president. it shows a distinct shift in what that role is. the method of delivery is peculiar because the economy was doing just as well under obama, continuing under trump, stock buy—backs have benefited, not real workers. it is a record essentially devoid of legislative accomplishments. north korean initiative in tatters. standing next to vladimir putin, saying he is a wonderful guy. all this evidence of corruption, he is not saying anything bad about it. i agree with you, that is the correct analysis of the voters, but it seems so superficial and strange that it is

almost a bubble... it is fox news. i was in washington reporting at watergate time. if nixon had had fox news behind him, it would have been a different story. i don't think he would have some fight. —— would have survived. the power that donald trump as to say falsities, fake news, pay no attention, tweeting. this is all... how much rests on what michael cohen might say? he has lots more to tell, says his lawyer. the support base is still there, they do not care about the russian investigation or believe it. there are still the institutions. like richard nixon. he may rail against the investigation. it has been watertight in terms of leaks. 30

people indicted to do with the molar investigation. we do not know what is to come. —— muller investigation. we don't know what other information michael cohen has. and david becker, cfo of trump organisation, given immunity by prosecutors this week. the net is tightening. the legal syste m the net is tightening. the legal system and the department ofjustice is going to be key to this. we saw jeff sessions the attorney general stand up to trump more than he has before. trump criticised the department of justice and before. trump criticised the department ofjustice and his own attorney general for focusing on the wrong thing essentially. i think the fa ct wrong thing essentially. i think the fact jeff wrong thing essentially. i think the factjeff sessions wrong thing essentially. i think the fact jeff sessions stood up to trump is significant because the department of justice as is significant because the department ofjustice as in watergate holds the key to what happens next. what happens next? if

you can indict him or impeach him and he says to hell with all of you... we could see republicans changing. if something really bad comes out of the mother investigation. a money trail between russia, i do not want to speculate too much. we don't know the information they have. that combined with a poor performance, relatively, by republicans in november, even if they do keep the senate, you could see some turning against donald trump and thinking he is more of a liability than they thought. then what next? you then have mike pence. a man who is a climate change denier, anti—gay. not sure he is terribly bright. not sure that is a fabulous attentive. the democrats must think, maybe not. boosting for

the next election. november six, mid—term elections, what are the democrats doing? mid—term elections, what are the democrats doing 7 what mid—term elections, what are the democrats doing? what is their strategy? what is your reading with a couple of months to go until that crucial vote? so far, a couple of months to go until that crucialvote? so far, ithink it is don't step on your own message. don't try to bring up impeachment, don't make it too much about trump, trump does that for himself. only suburban women, these battle ground states and districts, the polling for the democrats right now and i think they want to keep that up. there is no single party standard—bearer. there is kind of a big chorus of different voices in the democratic party. the senator doesn't know quite what to do about all that. let's just hope that donald trump keeps making ms for himself and people understand that anger that they used to vote for him, combined with the embarrassment that he has cause to many of his

supporters by his unbelievable antics, will mean we win the house, we can move from there to the next election. not the bbc view, necessarily, but i take your point! the democratic party! takes us back to the point that the base does not change, it'll be interesting to see what happens in november. plenty to discuss ben and plenty to discuss in the weeks to come. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. let's see what is coming our way this bank holiday weekend.

tomorrow is not a great day, a wash—out for some of us, but until that happens, today is not bad. sunshine and a few showers. here is the latest satellite image. all of our weather is sinking in from the north. this is where the jet stream is coming from. it has been dragging in colder air from the polar regions. that is why it felt so chilly first thing this morning. tonight, parts of the country will turn pretty nippy as well. let's concentrate on the weather from midday onwards. a lot of fine weather across the uk. you will hardly notice the showers on the weather map because they will be very small and will not last long. you will be unlikely to catch them. for most of us, a fine day. not a desperately warm day, but the sun is still strong.

a beautiful evening out there. there will be nice sunsets. tonight, this weather front is heading our way with some wet weather. it will be reaching northern ireland in the morning, but eastern areas should just about stay dry. the wet weather is brought by low pressure, which is going to park itself right on top of the uk during the middle of the day. hence, it is not looking pretty for most of us on sunday afternoon. from morning onwards, the weather front sweeps into western areas of the uk initially. the east may stay dry. norwich could hang onto dry weather until midday. by then, most of us will have had a good dose of rain. and the rain will be heavy. northern ireland might brighten up

in the afternoon. this is sunday night into monday. that rain has swept up into the north sea. there is another system heading our way, but monday is not looking too bad. there are couple of in the forecast. but bank holiday monday across england and wales is looking fine. is he is i'm annita mcveigh live in dublin — the headlines at 12. pope francis has arrived in ireland, for the first papal visit in almost a0 years. the pope was welcomed at the irish president's residence by president michael d higgins, his wife sabina and a this is the scene live in dublin, where the pope is set to deliver a speech shortly. pope francis is clamping an irish

oak tree near the spot wherejohn paul ii planted a tree on his visit to ireland in 1979. he is accompanied by the irish president at his official residence in phoenix park in the city. i'll be bringing you all the latest live from dublin. and i'm shaun ley — the other headlines this hour... women in england are to be allowed to take the second of two early abortion pills in their own homes instead of in a clinic. holiday—makers arrive home after being flown back early from an egyptian hotel, following the unexplained deaths of a british couple. thousands of rohingya muslim refugees have taken part in a demonstration marking one year since their exodus from myanmar, following a military crackdown. the family of nazanin

zaghari—ratcliffe, a british—iranian