the latest headlines: the us and mexico have reached agreement on a new trade deal between them after a year of negotiations. the deal would replace the north america free trade agreement — nafta. canada's foreign minister is due to travel to washington on tuesday for further talks on trade. donald trump now says he's not committed to country agreement. —— toa committed to country agreement. —— to a three country agreement. justin trudeau is heading to washington for urgent talks. myanmar has rejected a un investigation which accused its most senior military leaders of crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocidal intent against rohingya muslims. myanmar‘s representative to the un called the report "one—sided". the un security council is expected to discuss the situation in myanmar later on tuesday. in germany, thousands of far—right demonstrators have clashed with antifascist protesters in the second evening of violence. the trouble began on sunday, when a young man was stabbed to death. it's time now for hardtalk.

welcome to hardtalk with me, zeinab badawi. it is not an easy time to be involved in international trade, the world's two biggest economies — the united state and china — are trading insults and imposing tariffs on each other. beijing says it's reporting washington to the world trade organisation. the current tensions were sparked by president trump's decision to impose tariffs on billions of dollars on imports from china, the european union, canada and mexico. my guest is arancha gonzalez, the executive director of the international trade centre, which is co—owned by the world trade organization and the united nations. her mandate is to help small and medium businesses in developing countries participate in global trade. but with an international trading system that some believe is discredited and outmoded, is she pursuing the wrong ambitions? arancha gonzalez, welcome to

hardtalk. thank you so much. so we are seeing towers being slapped around all over the place. the mood music on international trade has changed very much, to your detriment. well, no, iwould not changed very much, to your detriment. well, no, i would not say so. detriment. well, no, i would not say so. i would tell you that there is a huge geostrategic rivalry between the us and china, and maybe it is not that bad that the biggest expression of this rivalry is international trade. why is that?

because economies being so interrelated today, the fact that there is this huge rivalry and a contention to go unilateral is making a lot of the coalition is in every country mobilise international trade, so maybe it is not that bad. they are saying that they are sort of carrying out a proxy war to trade that might be worse otherwise? what iam that might be worse otherwise? what i am saying is that in trade, despite maybe a bit more rational thanit despite maybe a bit more rational than it would be in other areas. like militarily? like militarily, like diplomatic, like we have seen climate change, for example. and why is that? because there is a system of rules today that makes countries and makes businesses think twice before slowing the system under the bus. 0k, before slowing the system under the bus. ok, you may say it is the lesser of two evils or whatever you may say but nevertheless there is

this trade war going on and release signals a real lack of confidence, particularly the united states, about international rules, about the world trade organization, and that should be very worrying to use. well, let's unpack this. there is axedin well, let's unpack this. there is axed in america. -- worrying to you. there is anger in many parts of america, i am there is anger in many parts of america, iam not there is anger in many parts of america, i am not surprised by that. —— angst. when you look at the figures, in the 80s, american households in the bottom half were getting 20% of national income, today they are getting a little bit over 10% of national income. there has been a big concentration of the benefits of economic progress on a very few households in america, this is not the case in europe where it has been stable about 20%. the question is is this anger to be committed to international trade and woolly fix the problems of this bottom half of america? the answer is yes to some people. -- and will

we fix the problems. we are seeing people say look, it has become a flashpoint of populist theory now. people do not like free trade, including the leader of the free world, donald trump. ben white is their response to this globalisation so their response to this globalisation so different in america than it is for example in europe? well, i don't know. why is that? is that the case in the united kingdom? you saw for example that brexit was partly animated by people saying they do not like free trade. no, i would not say that, they would tell you they do not like free movement of people. i have not heard in the uk, brexiteers saying we do not like international trade. by theresa may has said that part of the reason there was brexit was that there are people who feel that the haves and have—nots from globalisation. people who feel that the haves and have-nots from globalisation. fine, but was this from trade measures?” will tell you what trump tweeted in may this year, when united states is

losing billions of dollars on virtually every country that the us is doing trade with, trade wars are easy to win. well, what has happened months later is that trade wars have not been easy to win and those americans that are suffering continue to suffer even more today because there are billions of dollars of tariffs that have been imposed that represent a tax on consumers, attacks on americans, like attacks on chinese, like attacks europeans. my response to this is yes, i agree that there is a problem but no, i disagree that the solution is unilateral... economic growth in the united states has recently at 4.4% when it has been about 2% for the past eight years, it have the ceo of a steel company in the united states announced an investment in arkansas, saying that these tariffs are helping because it is protecting the us steel industry. —— you have. jobs being created. it

is working to trump. well, it is working for somebody not working for others, if you read very carefully and if you look at what is happening in america, you will also hear stories, thousands of stories of companies were finding it harder more expensive to source imports for manufacturing in the us. you will find stories of companies who are not making investments because they find that the current situation is too unpredictable, and you'll find consumers complaining that the price has gone up. but the trend is moving, obviously showing happens lot under globalisation, sending people's jobs offshore where jobs could be done more cheaply, you are now saying that reassuring of these jobsis now saying that reassuring of these jobs is creating lots and lots of job. —— you are now seeing reshoring. this was the story of the

second and the first industrial revolution, morejobs were second and the first industrial revolution, more jobs were created them jobs were destroyed, but this is not good enough answer to those whose were destroyed. but let me give you a figure. how much the country spends in active labour market policies? in helping those that have lost theirjobs retrain, retool, gain a newjob? that changes enormously what feeling citizens have in that country towards globalisation, towards trade. denmark, 2% of gdp. france, i% of gdp. germany, 0.6% of gdp. america, 0.i% gdp. germany, 0.6% of gdp. america, 0.1% of gdp. it is not enough to say that globalisation and technology creates jobs, we have to take care of those whose jobs are lost. you also have to acknowledge that as someone also have to acknowledge that as someone who has worked for many yea rs someone who has worked for many years in international trade, he worked for the head of the wto, you have to accept that there is a prevailing mood that the system as

it is is not working for several reasons. do you accept that?” it is is not working for several reasons. do you accept that? i do. i think the system is not working but... shouldn't you have more sympathy than? i do have sympathy, but the question then is what we do the we say that the system does not work? no, likely answer is no. my a nswer work? no, likely answer is no. my answer is let's fix the system. one, wto was created in the world that was binary, they were rich countries and poor countries, and today it is no longer binary. we have multiple shades of rich and multiple shades of poor countries, and this is something we need to fix. who takes which commitments on how much flexibility do we give countries to adjust? and that is not being done. i agree. because one of the anomalies of the wto in is that wto members have not made up their minds of china is a rich country with many poor people or poor country with

many rich, depending on how you a nswer many rich, depending on how you answer this, the trade regime will be different. that is one of the points that donald trump makes, which is that china is treated as a developing nation in the wto, which adjoin not that long ago, and in 2000, and he says that is not right, it is not a level playing field because it has subsidies, it floods markets with its goods more cheaply produced, it is notjust the united states it is worried about that. asian countries are worried about that and so on. i think it is fair. so how is that going to be fixed?” think it is fair to say that we need to adjust the wto to new realities where countries are multiple you rich and multiple poor, there is a predation and we have to address that. the second thing we have two address in the gradition is the impact of trade, data security, e—commerce. . . “—

impact of trade, data security, e—commerce. .. —— gradiation. impact of trade, data security, e-commerce... -- gradiation. donald trump says that it does not respect intellectual property rights and so on. “— intellectual property rights and so on. —— gradation. if you look at what the united states is doing now, it will say it will not allow the selection ofjudges in the body within the wto that settles disputes and this could lead to a loss as within the wto. agree and this is why what we have in front of us is a decision to be made, we throw the system out of the window or do it justice system? and make the answer to this question is we have to adjust the system, and this requires the two big countries, the us and china, to sit around the table and start a conversation. and maybe we need a third in ingredient called the european union because of the event of the countries that have the power initiative. —— ingredient called. what many did not realise is

that the previous week, donald trump had met the president of china, xi jinping. the three, the us and china, with the eu somehow mediating between china and the us, they need to start the conversation. they will not be the only one is necessary to end the conversation, we need all the other coalition of silent willing to come around the table, but these two fundamental issues need to be fixed. again, it don't go the system, and then the system, fix it, make it work because it is arguably going to be in your interest to do so. do you think that this current trade dispute between the united states and china will be resolved the negotiation? china says it is going to go to the wto to raise the dispute. do you think it will be resolved or will it get worse before it gets better? i hope it gets better. what we have in front of us is a very simple choice, either the system is taken down in the fight between china and the us, or the two understand that the

system, the system, meaning basically what we learn from the second world war, from the mistakes of the 20th century. —— learned from, which is a system of checks and balances called the world trade organization mediates to help them find a solution to ensure trade is fairer to the realities of today, thatis fairer to the realities of today, that is the question ahead of our. we had talked about china and the united states but actually, it is not just china united states but actually, it is notjust china and the united states. america, actually donald trump has said that the european union is almost as bad as china. so, we're also seeing cause for —— calls for protectionism and we want things made in our country. there is a prevalent mood of economic nationalism, isn't there? and people perhaps seeing protectionism, it is something that we need to protect our jobs, something that we need to protect ourjobs, to protect our industries, and that is the reality i am saying that the wto has to adjust to what i. i think we are seeing a lot of moves to protect people but we are

not seeing trade protectionism. -- has to adjust to. trade protectionism is being used by many, andi protectionism is being used by many, and i think that is the right answer to the challenges that technology is posing today on the job market. why i see posing today on the job market. why iseea posing today on the job market. why i see a certain let's say unilateralism in some parts of the world, i see africa moving to create a huge internal market by breaking down trade barriers between its 55 countries. i see... and that is the future, it isn't it really? giving up future, it isn't it really? giving up africa, and actually this is one thing you hear a lot from developing countries, africa and asia, as a professor at the university of california in berkeley has said, it is actually an informal oligarchy of a few bunches of nations. and the african countries feel that the rules or the wto is fixed by those

countries, it does not act to their benefit. situation has made the necessity of wt0 become sharper in the eyes of smaller economies, those that may be a not so integrated with the world economy, because around the world economy, because around the wto table they have a say and a voice. in purely bilateral relations they have no say. playing the field is not level for developing countries. i will give you an example of africa's richest man, nigerian, says, if you look at where we are today, africa, when there is no protection, you are not good at any industries — in africa if don't put up tariffs we will be the dumping ground of the entire world. so you've got to the rules that protect african, nascent infant industries and not see african markets flooded with goods from the developed world. though i think africa has made a different choice. africa has made a different choice. africa has made a different choice.

africa has made a choice of doing two things, walking and chewing gum at the same time. africa has decided to tear down barriers among themselves because they realise they we re themselves because they realise they were being hugely inefficient. they we re were being hugely inefficient. they were not benefiting from the economies. that is the point i am making. they are being ripped off by and economic system loaded against them and they say let's focus on regional trading blocs. them and they say let's focus on regionaltrading blocs. no, because when they do regional integration they are opening up more to the rest of the world, they are doing the two because they understand him today's economy what matters is agility, your ability to do value addition and that will be very difficult to do... they can't do that, arancha gonzalez. if you look at, for example, the european economic partnership agreements with africa, they say yes, you can send cocoa, raw commodities, the minute they wa nt to raw commodities, the minute they want to add value to those products, and finished them and send textiles or whatever, they see barriers, more

ta riffs or whatever, they see barriers, more tariffs go up, and conversely, the other way, they have to allow their markets to be open to textiles from the united states, we are seeing a big dispute between washington and rwanda because rwanda said we don't wa nt rwanda because rwanda said we don't want your second—hand clothes, we wa nt to want your second—hand clothes, we want to protect the textile industry, what has america done? is as we are going to close markets to rwanda. and what has rwanda said, 0k, rwanda. and what has rwanda said, ok, do that, but we will stand, we will continue... that is an example ofa will continue... that is an example of a rich country bullying at poorer country. this is why the wto exists. take this to the wto and you will win your dispute and you will win your case in court. the law is on your case in court. the law is on your side. you see it... as the head of the international trade centre i spent most of my time in africa, and i see african countries doing more and more value addition because they are investing in people, they are making sure technology is an integral part of the economic development because they are integrating with each other, moving

up integrating with each other, moving up the value chain. to trade with one another. and with the rest of the world. and with the rest of the world, i see the senegalese it industry, the digital sector in kenya is booming. the senegalese textile industry says we are getting all of these cheap textiles from china and so on. i will tell you what the prime minister said, they can't keep up with the highly technologically driven industries in europe, he says, for example, they can't compete. this is not what i see on the ground. what i see in the ground —— on the ground is industries investing in competitiveness and this is a key component to thriving in international markets, to become competitive. they are invested in more value adding. they are doing that, but the point i am making... they are reaping the benefits. from the london school of economics, they say that the us and many european

countries today use aggressive industrial policy to foster frontier industries in companies much of it below the radar of public scrutiny. the global playing field is level only from the perspective of the west. he is right. iam only from the perspective of the west. he is right. i am not sure this is right. if this is an issue, it is another argument to bring this matter to the world trade organization and reduce the level of state intervention in the economy because frankly only a few countries have the ability to prop up domestic industries in such a way. protectionism for africa and are —— developing countries. no, isolating yourself from the rest of the world, disconnecting yourself will prevent you from innovating, prevent you from accessing larger markets, it will prevent you... no country in the world has developed by simply turning its back to the world economy. they have, with subsidies, a cambridge economist says this is the west kicking away the ladder

that countries that use protectionism to get rich are now banning poor countries from doing the same. no... we have subsidies left, right and centre in developed countries on agricultural policy, state subsidies. that is true that there are issues. that is the point iam making. there are issues. that is the point i am making. there are subsidy issues that still need to be disciplined and this is why the wto exists and needs to exist, because the subsidies... not unless there was this system. your mandate at the wto seeking to promote which is global trade opportunities for small and medium business enterprises. i will tell you what in myanmar, the vice—chair of the industry zone set at the end of last year that smes in myanmar can't compete with international industrial goods and they can't deal with the mass production because of a lack of modern machinery, so you've got automation now, and it is only the rich countries that can really mass—produce and take advantage of

the automation. no, ithink mass—produce and take advantage of the automation. no, i think the problem of the micro and small enterprises is the same around the world, competitiveness. it is true that there is a huge gap between large companies and smes anywhere in the world, germany, the us, the uk, so this gap is obviously larger, the poorer the country, and this is where we have to act. it is not by closing the markets that we will pf°p up closing the markets that we will prop up the competitiveness of smes, it is by supporting smes to become more competitive, supporting them... but can they really compete with the mass production, automated methods of production? they can, look, i came back from nairobi, kenya is today the number one exporter of high—quality avocados and you will tell me, well,... where is the added value? for the 200,000 farmers in kenya with families living on

avocados, moving from exporting avocados, moving from exporting avocados that were fetching five shillings, which today fetch 20 shillings, which today fetch 20 shillings, which today fetch 20 shillings, which makes a huge difference, for the children that go to school, a huge difference for the children that go to healthcare. you need value added. that is value added. the big chocolate companies make all the profits from cocoa, not the cocoa producing countries. no, no, zeinab, let me clear it, plain avocados got five shillings, these meet the standards in the eu, 20 shillings, more than 200,000 farmers, women, by the way, because it isa farmers, women, by the way, because it is a female crop, they get a better income through international trade, so before we trashed the international trade and the trade system lets look at the impact this is having on the ground. someone who is having on the ground. someone who is not trashing the trade system is in the uk the prominent brexiteers jacob rees—mogg, the conservative mp

says about brexit, when britain, if they were to leave with no deal he says trading with the eu on wto terms would work well for the uk and would allow the uk to achieve racks at sooner. —— brexit sooner. the british government said the chances ofa british government said the chances of a no—deal brexit are very real. so just outlined was what would it mean in practice for the uk to trade on wto terms? eu on wto is like chalk and cheese. eu is a market. so today when you export from london to berlin it is like you are from london to birmingham, it is the same, it is one single market. the same, it is one single market. the same rules apply in, no borders. moving back to the wto means establishing a border. exporting from london to berlin orfrom london to paris would have to cross a border and the question today is how fit is this border going to be? and thatis fit is this border going to be? and that is a question that needs to be a nswered that is a question that needs to be answered here in the uk. so could

they do that, the day after a no—deal brexit, they could immediately just trade on no—deal brexit, they could immediatelyjust trade on wto terms? yes, but this would mean a border, and this would mean a thick border today on some products, thin on other products, but it would be a border and the question is, how fit is this border going to be? and there is no agreement here in the uk about how —— thick. this border is going to be today they have no border so there is... what this has brought to the fore for many constituencies is the cost of moving out of the eu for the uk, given the level of implication of uk producers with the rest of continental europe. someone who is spanish and pro—eu you might not think it desirable, is it practical? it is not the question of is it practical, of course it is, you have 160 countries around the wto table, what do you need

practicable? the question is if it is needed in the uk and this is only what the uk can answer and until they answer the question the rest of they answer the question the rest of the world will be looking at the uk waiting for the answer. arancha gonzalez, thank you very much indeed for coming on hardtalk. pleasure. thank you. hello. as high pressure builds, the end of this week looks pretty quiet weatherwise. until then, though, a couple of weather systems to affect us. this is the big picture as tuesday begins. low pressure to the north—west of us already starting to feed some rain in towards the north—west of scotland. elsewhere, quiet start to the week. this weather system eventually will make an impact. so for this week's weather, there's a chance of rain.

not everybody‘s going to see it and it may not amount to too much. there will also be quite a bit of dry and occasionally sunny weather particularly later this week, as we'll see. now, these are your starting numbers for tuesday morning. temperatures into double figures for many. maybe one or two mist and fog patches around. fair amount of cloud, don't expect too much in the way of morning sunshine. a breeze and outbreaks of rain into the western isles of scotland and this system is only very slowly pushing further south—east during the day. whereas ahead of that, we keep a good deal of cloud, a few breaks and a sunny spells to come through. some outbreaks of rain will feed into the northern isles through the day and this weather system starting to see one or two showers breaking out. the rain will start to feed into the western side of northern ireland, leaving the best of the sunshine here in the east. across england and wales, after some misty and murky weather to begin with, some bright or sunny spells may keep low cloud into the south—west of england, one or two spots of drizzle. temperatures into the high teens, a few spots in the low 20s, average for the time of year.

into tuesday night, we take some outbreaks of rain through scotland and northern ireland, and we introduce the possibility of seeing some thundery showers working into parts of southern england, maybe clipping parts of the midlands, into east anglia, certainly into the south—east by wednesday morning. turning cooler behind the weather front as temperatures dip into single figures. for many, though, again, double figures as wednesday begins. two weather systems to look out for the big picture on wednesday. this one clipping into south—eastern parts moving away on this one tracking south—east across the uk. so eventually during wednesday, it looks like we'll say goodbye to this weather system, but still with some outbreaks of rain before it clears. but look how this weather system is weakening as it moves further south—east. one or two showers left behind. the cooler and fresher ad behind with sunny spells and showers to western scotland, one or two for northern ireland. temperatures into the high teens, just a few scraping into the low 20s, fairly close to average, maybe a little below in some spots. and then ny the end of the week, it's all looking very quiet because pressure is building, things are settling down. still a fair of cloud, though. this is bbc news.

welcome to bbc news — broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. my name is mike embley. our top stories: the us and mexico have agreed to overhaul the north american free trade agreement, known as nafta. it has been a long time, and this is something that is very special for our manufacturers and for our farmers from both countries. after the murder in a german city, thousands of far right protesters

clashed with antifascist protesters