my deal or no deal says the prime minister — with six months to go until the uk leaves the european union. theresa may warns mps that if they don't accept her proposals the uk could leave with no deal, but critics say her chequers plan is a car crash. we'll get a good deal, we'll bring that back from the european... from the eu negotiations and put that to parliament. i think that the alternative to that would be not having a deal. it's not really fulfilling the mandate of the people and you're not really coming out of the eu. and that's... that would be a real, real shame and i think a bit of a political disaster, as i say. today, a warning for the uk economy — it will shrink if there is no deal, says the international monetary fund. closing a deal with the eu will be critical to avoid a no—deal brexit, which would impose very large cost on the uk economy. we'll be assessing the prospects of a deal before next march. also on the programme tonight:

the mp who tried to save the life of pc keith palmer during the westminster terror attack tells an inquest about his desperate efforts to help him. the landslide in the philipinnes that's left dozens of people dead, as miners and theirfamilies sheltered from typhoon mangkhaut. and police explode a huge fertiliser bomb that was found under a man's bed in a flat in devon. and coming up on bbc news, in the red. as simon yates wins the tour of spain, what next for british cycling? good evening and welcome to the bbc news at six. the prime minister has told the bbc that mps will have a choice between her proposed deal

with the eu or no deal at all. the comments, made to the panorama programme, have prompted her critics to say she's risking a "car crash", if she sticks to her policy. the uk is set to leave the eu on 29 march 2019, and negotiations between the two sides are still taking place. the prime minister has insisted that it's the government's job to make a success of brexit, even if there is no deal. our political editor laura kuenssberg reports. it seems rather menacing, somehow. i think that's the idea, to put pressure on the contestant 's. mr and mrs meme has simply for the co ntesta nts and mrs meme has simply for the contestants but how much sympathy can she expect as she approaches a defining few months? determined to persuade us, the deal she hopes to forge with the european union is the obvious choice. they have mixtures of questions. i believe we will get

a good deal, will bring that back from the european... from the eu negotiations and put that to parliament. i think that the alternative to that would be not having a deal, because i don't think there will be... i don't like the negotiations would have that deal and we are leaving on the 29th of march, 2019. it was in the grandeur of her country home, chequers that she signed the cabinet up to her plan for negotiation. they come from ice that anything but comfortable for many tories, where part of the economy would stay closely tied to the european union. they claim, that it's how we all know we roundly rejected by some brexiteers. their cheerleader in chief, who quit over the plan, will not go quietly. much of the point of brexit is nullified. you know, you're not really achieving... you're not ready for filling the mandate of the people. and you're not really coming out of

the eu. and that's... that would be a real, real shame and i think a bit ofa a real, real shame and i think a bit of a political disaster. their empty now, but when the green benches fill, after the party conferences, mps face the most important set of decisions in many years. those who fought to have a say over the brexit steel believe it can'tjust be a simple choice. —— still believe. i do not see the choices as necessary as binary as she has made out. there are alternative options to just crashing out with no deal in those circumstances. one thing i'm absolutely determined to ensure as a politician is that we don't crash out with no deal. neither the labour party nor the snp, nor the lib dems are likely to approve. so, the numbers will be tight. if the vote fails, the public might have another say. there is a growing demand that we have a people's vote on the outcome. in other words, we take the government's proposals, whatever they are, and we choose that all we stay within the european union.

number ten used to say no deal is better than a bad one. another prime minister almost seems to be saying any deal is better than none. —— but now the prime minister. that's even before the almost inevitable further compromise with the eu. there's just no way theresa may can actually be sure of getting mps in line. even world leaders get put hold, sometimes. hold music. before mps have a say, the promised us before mps have a say, the promised us persuade the rest of europe not to keep her hanging on. jean-claude. hello. bbc news, westminster. and you can watch the full interview with theresa may on panorama inside number ten: deal or no deal, tonight on bbc one at 8:30pm. meanwhile, the international monetary fund says that if britain leaves the eu without a deal, it would inflict substantial costs on the uk economy. the imf‘s managing director, christine lagarde, said that all brexit outcomes would entail costs, but that a disorderly departure would lead to a reduction in the size of the uk economy. our economics editor

kamal ahmed has the story. it is coming towards us at pace. brexit day. so much still to do. a daunting prospect, the imf said, as they arrive from america for the annual analysis of the uk economy. christine lagarde said it was time for wise heads to get a deal done. overcoming differences, reaching agreement, and closing a deal with the eu will be critical to avoid a no—deal brexit, which would impose very large cost on the uk economy. could you outline why you think a no—deal would be so bad for the uk economy? it would be a shock to supply. it would inevitably have a series of consequences, in terms of... reduced growth, going forward.

increased deficit, most likely. depreciation of the currency. and it would... you know... in reasonably short order mean... a reduction of the size of... the uk economy. alongside the chancellor, in almost full agreement. we must heed the clear warnings of the imf and others of the significant cost that not reaching a deal with the eu will have for britishjobs reaching a deal with the eu will have for british jobs and british prosperity. i was here for the 20 17th imf report on the uk economy. and certainly, this year, much more concerned about the possible costs of brexit. 2017, the imf was welcoming progress on those brexit negotiations. this year, real worry that the no deal option is even on the table. today, jaguar land rover said it would cut production because

of headwinds affecting the car industry, days after its chief executive warned a no—deal brexit would be horrifying. the imf said a wea ker would be horrifying. the imf said a weaker pound had helped exit exports and others said a close deal could see an economic boost. towards the end of the year i think everyone would be very pleased if the november inflation report and we adjusted our assumption because we knew what the agreement was for the end state. six months to go and the uk still has a lot of brexit homework to do, the imf said. no sign, as faras homework to do, the imf said. no sign, as far as that economic body is concerned, as as yet, any brexit dividend. our political editor laura kuenssberg is in westminsterfor us. six months to go this week. until we leave the eu, brexit, what is the prospect of a deal? well, a deal is pretty likely, both eu and the uk wa nt to

pretty likely, both eu and the uk want to make it happen. they believe that by grinding through talks in the next couple of months, in the middle, towards the end of november, the eu leaders will, together, be able to strike some kind of agreement. even that it is not inevitable. the second question, though, is what deal? it is the kind of deal that will determine what happens next. remember, once the leaders of 28 countries, of them, managed to agree something together in brussels, that has to then come back to westminster and go through the houses of parliament. frankly, it might be here at home that theresa may has even harder time. persuading her mps to get in line is extremely difficult. remember. it's not just divisions across extremely difficult. remember. it's notjust divisions across the political parties over what to do. it's also that it's likely she'll have to even further. she may talk tough today today and may be trying tough today today and may be trying to spook mps into falling into line that they haven't yet seen the final version of what is likely to be agreed. and even one government

minister said to me today there is no way they're able to say yes or no until they see the final version. and that is something, process, that is going to unfold still over the next couple of months. laura, thank you. the mp tobias ellwood has told the inquests into the victims of the westminster bridge attack how he fought to save the life of pc keith palmer, who had been stabbed outside parliament. the officer, and four other people who were run over by khalid masood on the bridge, died after the attack in march, last year. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford reports from the old bailey. the photographs of the minister, tobias ellwood, helping in the desperate efforts to save pc keith palmer's life became some of the defining images of last year's westminster attack. today he arrived at pc palmer's inquest to give his official account of that traumatic day. he described the panic inside parliament, with people shouting "go

back", as he went forward. and how he walked past a line of armed police officers, pointing their guns, to go and help their unarmed colleague, who had been stabbed by khalid masood. when he got there, he found pc palmer with, among other injuries, a serious knife wound onto his left armpit. it lost a lot of blood and he was unconscious, tobias ellwood told the course. i checked for a pulse, there was a pulse. the minister said he tried to stop the bleeding but his heart soon stopped and they started cpr. at one point, he was close to tears in court, saying "forgive me, sometimes it's easier to do the helping them to talk about it afterwards". when a doctor arrived on the air ambulance, there still seemed to be a chance but even surgery on the spot couldn't say the police officer and he died. the doctor moved on to help other patients, leaving the minister and one other person behind. "we

both tidied up the body as best we could", tobias ellwood said. "close the eyes and i said i'm sorry". this afternoon, the inquest started looking at the armed officers, who were on duty on the day that khalid masood burst through the gates of parliament and stabbed pc keith palmer. his family wept as the court watched cctv footage of two armed officers patrolling near the gate at a quarter to two, but then patrolling elsewhere until after the attack, almost an hour later. pc palmer's family then heard one of those armed officers, lee ashby, said on wednesday as they were encouraged to patrol where ministers we re encouraged to patrol where ministers were dropped off in their cars for prime minister's questions rather than by the open gates of parliament, where pc palmer was left undefended. he said he had not agreed with those instructions. daniel sandford, bbc news at the old bailey. punctuality of britain's railways has reached a 12—year low, following disruption from the weather and new timetables. one in seven trains missed the industry's measure

of punctuality, according to the office of rail and road. the rail industry responded by saying billions were being invested to ease congestion, redsuce delays and minimise disruption. the grenfell inquiry has been hearing harrowing details from emergency service call operators who were working on the night of the fire, including one woman who spoke to a resident for around a0 minutes before she died on one of the top floors. another operator, angie gotts, who took 80 calls during the course of the night, said the control room had been "overwhelmed" and that operators had "tried their best". she said she had repeatedly forgotten to ask people which flat they were in. she also described the "stunned silence" in the control room, when callers finally went silent. in the philippines, hopes are fading of finding survivors buried by a landslide that has killed at least 32 people in a mining town. the gold miners and their families had taken shelter from typhoon mangkhut in a temporary shelter on the side of a steep mountain.

more than 65 people are thought to have died across the philippines following the typhoon. 0ur correspondentjonathan head is there, he sent this report. in the end, it wasn't the wind, but the rain that was the real killer. that huge brown gash in the mountain is where an entire waterlogged hillside slid down and buried a building where dozens of miners had taken shelter from the typhoon. for two days, rescuers have battled to find survivors, clambering over the treacherous mud. they've been unable to bring up heavy excavation equipment because of the damaged roads. so far, only bodies have been recovered. dozens more are believed to be trapped under the mud. they aren't sure exactly how many. relatives have come up, to wait for news, clinging to the hope that there may yet be survivors. translation: this is the first time i've seen a landslide this massive. almost everyone here is affected.

even the miners are helping the rescuers, the police, everyone is giving their best. further north, where they bore the brunt of the storm, they're starting to count the cost. in places, it's been very high. not so much in lives lost, but in damage to homes, crops and infrastructure. the lessons learned from previous typhoons have certainly cut the death toll in this one. filipinos now know to heed official advice to evacuate their homes when a storm is on the way. but the tragedy of the buried miners underlines just how vulnerable this country is to natural disasters. its eroded and deforested hillsides are all too prone to collapse under the weight of heavy rainfall. and they get that all the time during the typhoon season. jonathan head, bbc news, northern philippines. it exactly a quarter past six.

our top story this evening: my deal or no deal says the prime minister, with six months to go until the uk leaves the european union. and we're answering your questions on brexit. today the impact it could have on immigration. coming up on sports day, a big change for england's women's rugby union. the players will be given full—time professional contracts from next year. nearly a quarter of the uk population is living in poverty — that means people who simply don't have enough money to meet day to day costs after paying out the essentials. at the moment poverty is measured by levels of household income. but now an independent commission is calling for a new way to assess it which includes factors such as childcare, or the impact of living with a disability. more than 1a million people are living in poverty in the uk. of those, almost 8 million people

are stuck in persistent poverty. the new calculation shows almost 7 million people living in poverty are families with a disabled person. 0ur social affairs correspondent alison holt reports now from scarborough. the fatigue is there all the time. even the simple job of clearing up after her four children leave jenny smith exhausted. she has multiple sclerosis, and with each task feels her energy draining away. i have to take a daily nap, just so that i can be 0k through tea—time, because i have to, obviously, feed my children, do the school run. today's report says current poverty measures ignore the unavoidable cost someone like jenny faces. she's jotted down for me the extra bills she pays as a lone parent on benefits with a disability. hospital trips, so there's transport which costs more.

childcare... and when she was rushed to hospital, extremely ill, even with the help of her family, the costs of looking after the children mounted up. the younger ones, i had to book them into full—time, like, five full days of nursery. their childcare. and that's, you know, it's pretty pricey. i'm still... probably £1,000 in debt with them, because of that. i'm still paying that off. existing measures of povertyjust look at the money a person gets from wages or benefits, but the proposed new measure sets someone's income and any assets they can get hold of quickly, like savings, against bills that can't be avoided, such as childcare, debt repayment or the extra cost of living with a disability. the money they have left is then used to calculate whether or not they live in poverty. the report authors say they found more people with disabilities

and fewer pensioners below the breadline. if you can't identify the right people, then, when government devises its big programmes to support people who are disadvantaged, they can actually aim them completely at the wrong people. 0r actually not aim them at the right people who are really in need. when you have limited resources, you really want to make sure that your resources are going towards those who genuinely need those resources. the government says it will look at the report closely and that it provides insight into the pressures people likejenny live with. it also insists its policies are helping people escape poverty. alison holt, bbc news. some other stories today. and the company that makes marmite and dove soap is facing growing concern amongst investors over plans to move its headquarters to the netherlands. unilever is currently one of the biggest firms in the uk, with many pension funds holding shares in the firm. however, many fear if

the relocation is approved, it might lead to a rush to sell the stock, leading to losses. british and french fishermen have reached a deal to end the dispute over scallop fishing in the channel. last month boats collided and fishermen threw stones at each other as the french accused uk boats of depleting scallop stocks. the agreement will see larger british boats withdrawing from a disputed area off the normandy coast for six weeks. hundreds of patients with a type of aggressive skin cancer could benefit from a new targeted therapy treatment on the nhs in england and wales. the therapy is a combination of two drugs — which have been shown to improve survival rates of those with a particular mutation of stage 3 melanoma. wiltshire police say there's nothing to suggest that two people who fell ill in salisbury last night were exposed to the nerve agent novichock used in the attack on a former russian spy in march. the pair remain in hospital, under observation, but police say they're no longer treating what happened as a major incident.

a man from north devon has been sentenced to three years in prison after police found a highly explosive fertiliser bomb under his bed. metal pipe bombs and other weapons were also discovered at the flat in a village near barnstaple as well as a notebook in which he expressed a hatred of black and gay people. 0ur correspondentjon kay reports. controlled explosions destroying items from stephen bracher‘s flat. officers found 17 home—made bombs, described in court as viable, containing gunpowder. the 56—year—old drug addict was said to have a lifelong fascination with chemicals. his home described as a makeshift laboratory. under his bed, nine kilograms of highly explosive fertiliser mixed with other substances. they had the motivation of being there, and if they had been exploded in a confined space, then there was, i would suggest there was massive

potential for injury. bracher lived in a shared building next to a village primary school. thejudge said he had a cavalier disregard for risk. officers discovered machetes, a spear and a bow with more than 50 arrows. police also found a book in which stephen bracher had written extreme racist and homophobic comments, and had expressed a desire to kill. but the prosecution said they couldn't establish a link between his views and the explosives and weapons he'd amassed. they said this was not a terror—related case. the court heard bracher had no history of mental illness. he was jailed for three years and four months. jon kay, bbc news, north devon. and finally with six months to go until the uk leaves the european union, we'll be answering some of the most common questions about brexit this week. today our deputy political editor john pienaar has been looking at the impact that brexit could have on immigration. how will trade work, after brexit? will we be richer or poorer?

why haven't we left yet? will migrants still be able to come? corn fritters, anyone? first, someone has to pick it. and here, on this farm outside peterborough, for ten hours a day, the answer's this team of bulgarians and romanians. does britain need so many migrants? well, not enough natives want to do work like this. not here at this farm outside peterborough, not in a lot of places. florin, do you think you're taking british jobs? yeah, i think yes, because they don't want to do this job. we need money and should take this job. some places where you rarely see a migrant voted for brexit, too. so, who will get a welcome to britain after brexit? everyone expected more migrants after the eu expanded in 2004, with ten new countries. but it wasn't just a trickle. numbers increased and then increased again. until that increase reached 189,000 in 2016, the year of the vote to leave.

in these parts, foreign labour has always come in and been welcomed. italians and poles, after the war. from the commonwealth, in later decades. the face of britain has changed completely. nothing much changes immediately on brexit day. migrants already part of the british picture can stay, whatever happens. though they will have to register. free movement goes on, during a brexit transition, if there is a brexit deal. and there could be a visa system, like the one from non—eu workers, for somejobs. and those numbers have already gone up, much higher than those coming from europe. thanks very much. take a look round peterborough and lots of places. plenty of businesses run by migrants, many more which rely on them. then there's agriculture, construction, cleaning and hospitality. it also means pressure and some complaints about wages kept low, strain on schools, hospitals.

working out the uk's needs for migrants, then matching that need and still satisfying those voters who want tighter control, that may turn out to be a political mission impossible. what do you think? does migration cause a strain? yes, i think so. there's more population now, so it's got to put strain on the... hospitals, and everything else, really. you can't please everyone. the government's target for cutting net migration may be changed or scrapped in future, but either way, more will come, perhaps in future, mostly from outside europe, to live and work in businesses and services. planning the new face of britain will be hard. recruiting and training brits to do the job some migrants do, tougher still. and maybe hardest of all, politically, selling that vision to the country. john pienaar, bbc news, peterborough. and we'll have more key brexit questions coming up through the week including what it could mean for the union — and whether we'll be

richer or poorer after we leave. time for a look at the weather. here's darren betts a late return of the somme! temperatures in the south were 26 degrees, but this is the calm before the storm, because this area of cloud here is storm helene. this is drawing up warm tropical airfrom the south, hence the high temperatures. we're looking at some cloud and rain coming in on helene, rain also for northern ireland in the north—west of scotland. it is going to be a warm night, just as it was last night. but these are where we expected the strongest of the winds to be as we head overnighted

into tomorrow, the higher gusts more likely over coasted hills in the west. this rain in wales doesn't last long. it doesn't even last long across much of northern england in the morning. it lingers longer in scotland, cloud breaking up, some showers coming in from the west, but remember we are drawing in warm air in these strong and gusty winds, particularly across england and wales, so the temperatures could hit 25 in the south—east and east anglia again, 17, 18, 19 for scotland and northern ireland. windy again tomorrow but nothing extreme. the worst of it could be yet to come, this deepening area of low pressure steaming towards the uk and it will be windiest of all in the north—west, gusts of 60 or 70 mph. outbreaks of rain could be heavy for a time, gets pushed away with a little rain coming into england and wales, but once again in the

south—east, it looks like it is going to be dry with those temperatures getting up to 22 to 2a celsius. darren, thank you. a reminder of our main story this evening, and theresa may warns mps that if they don't accept her brexit proposals, the uk could leave with no deal. that's all from the bbc news at six. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines: with six months to go until brexit — the prime minister insists the only alternative to her plan is to leave the eu with no deal. we'll get a good deal, we will bring that back from the eu negotiations, and put that to parliament. i think that the alternative to that will be not having a deal. the international monetary fund warns that a "no—deal" brexit on world trade organization terms would entail "substa ntial costs" for the uk economy. and a race against time, as rescuers in the philippines dig

through mud to try to find dozens buried by a landslide after typhoon mangkhut battered the country. details emerge of how the mp tobias ellwood battled to save police officer keith palmer, who was stabbed to death in the westminster bridge attack. leaders from british and french fishing industries agree on a deal to end the so—called scallop wars in the english channel. in a moment, it will be time for sportsday but first a look at what else is coming up this evening on bbc news. with six months to go until brexit — reality check‘s chris morris will be investigating just how ready the uk is to set off on the future road ahead.