this is bbc news. the headlines at eight. with six months to go until brexit, the prime minister insists the only alternative to her plan is to leave the eu with no deal. we'll get a good deal, we will bring that back from the eu negotiations, and put that to parliament. i think that the alternative to that will be not having a deal. you're not really fulfilling the mandate of the people, and you're not really coming out of the eu, and that would be a real, real shame, and i thinka bit of a political disaster. the international monetary fund warns that a "no—deal" brexit on world trade organization terms would entail "substa ntial costs" for the uk economy. i'm in brexit burnley, where the economy is booming. so with their vote for leave affect — or not — those positive steps forward? and in other news this hour.

a race against time, as rescuers in the philippines dig through mud to try to find dozens buried by a landslide after typhoon mangkhut battered the country. details emerge of how the mp tobias ellwood battled to save police officer keith palmer, who was stabbed to death in the attack. and an end to the scallop wars — leaders from british and french fishing industries agree on a deal. the prime minister has told the bbc that mps will have a choice between her proposed deal with the eu — or no deal at all. the comments — made to the panorama programme — have prompted her critics to say she's risking a car crash

if she sticks to her policy. the uk is set to leave the eu on 29 march 2019, and negotiations between the two sides are still taking place. the prime minister has insisted that it's the government's job to make a success of brexit, even if there is no deal. meanwhile, the international monetary fund says that if britain leaves the eu without a deal, it would inflict substantial costs on the uk economy, more on that from our economics editor kamal ahmed in a moment, but first this report from our political editor laura kuenssberg. it seems rather menacing, somehow. i think that's the idea, to put pressure on the contestant. mr and mrs may may have sympathy for the contestants but how much understanding can she expect as she approaches a defining few months? determined to persuade us, the deal she hopes to forge with the european union is the obvious choice.

they have mixtures of questions. i believe we will get a good deal, will bring that back from the european... from the eu negotiations and put that to parliament. i think that the alternative to that would be not having a deal, because i don't think there will be... a, i don't think the negotiations would have that deal, and, b, we're leaving on the 29th of march, 2019. it was in the grandeur of her country home, chequers, that she signed the cabinet up to her plan for negotiation. a compromise that's anything but comfortable for many tories, where part of the economy would stay closely tied to the european union. the claim? that it's her way or no way roundly rejected by some brexiteers. their cheerleader in chief, who quit over the plan, will not go quietly. much of the point of brexit is nullified. you know, you're not really achieving... you're not really fulfilling the mandate of the people. and you're not really coming out of the eu. and that's...

that would be a real, real shame and i think a bit of a political disaster. they‘ re empty now, but when the green benches fill, after the party conferences, mps face the most important set of decisions in many years. those who fought to have a say over the brexit deal believe it can't just be a simple choice. i do not see the choices as necessarily binary as she has made out. there are alternative options tojust crashing out with no deal in those circumstances. one thing i'm absolutely determined to ensure as a politician is that we don't crash out with no deal. neither the labour party, nor the snp, nor the lib dems are likely to approve. so, the numbers will be tight. if the vote fails, the public might have another say. there is a growing demand that we have a people's vote on the outcome. in other words, we take the government's proposals, whatever they are, and we choose

that or we stay within the european union. number ten used to say no deal is better than a bad one. but now the prime minister almost seems to be saying any deal is better than none. that's even before the almost inevitable further compromise with the eu. there's just no way theresa may can actually be sure of getting mps in line. even world leaders get put hold, sometimes. hold music. before mps have a say, the prime minister must persuade the rest of europe not to keep her hanging on. hello, jean—claude. hello. laura kuenssberg, bbc news, westminster. and at 11.30 tonight you can see theresa may's interview with panorama, inside number ten: deal or no deal, here on bbc news. in the eu referendum, the town of burnley in lancashire was one of the most pro—brexit areas in the uk.

two thirds of the residents of the former mill town voted two—thirds of the residents of the former mill town voted in favour of leaving — but how do they feel about brexit more than two years on? christian fraser is there. yes, i think we will have to change the name of burnley as the milltown, it is now the tech town and one of the most successful tech towns around the country. i left here, the town of burnley as a young boy, about 27 years ago and the place i have returned to this week is very different to the town that i left behind. i think in some ways i'm a small part of that story, because back then, lots of people had to leave to find employment and opportunity. now, there is all manner of business coming back to burnley, the local chamber of commerce has told me they found £50 million worth of private sector investment in just the last year. they have embraced all manner of

digital innovation, aerospace and technology and what they really need here in burnley, is more people to work in the offices and the businesses that are settling here. we have been out to find out what people think, there is no better place to go than down to the football club, because the football clu b football club, because the football club is really an integral part of the town. it is the beating heart of this community and yesterday, burnley were travelling away to wolverhampton, so we were testing the mood in a town where two out of three voters opted it's one of the oldest stadiums in england in the smallest town ever to field a premier league team. this burnley squad loves to upset the established order, with players that seem to reflect the same stubborn character as the men and women who follow them around the country. this time, it's a trip to wolverhampton wanderers. another chance to defy the odds, and as with football, so it is with brexit. if we don't leave now,

it will raise its head again. our children will have this in years to come. we've spoken, that's the end of it, now get on with it and make the best of it. i agree that we voted to leave and that's what we have to do, we just can't keep changing our minds. i do have worries about what will happen, but it isjust the fear of the unknown. so does that uncertainty lead some here to reconsider? those who voted for brexit, keep your hands up if you still think it's a good idea. so you've not changed your minds at all? no german's telling me what to do! they think they've been forgotten about. immigration is the big thing in burnley. the reasons are complex. immigration, sovereignty, and yes, this town has some of the poorest wards in the country. amid tight, terraced houses are the relics of the cotton industry, the mills that long ago had powered the industrial revolution.

but follow the canal from the old mill chimneys to the gleaming new business parks on the edge of town, and you find that for all the brexit uncertainty, burnley‘s economy is in fact booming. they have embraced aerospace, digital innovation, telecoms, and at 80%, there is now record employment. burnley is one of the fastest growing tech towns in britain. they tell me businesses here are as bullish about brexit as the fans. yet the longer the uncertainty continues, the greater the risk that progress comes unstitched. yet the longer the uncertainty continues, the greater the risk that progress comes unstitched. i went to all the european games and six different people came up to talk to me about brexit, and four of them were saying, "we've got to stay, this is crazy." two said, "get on with it." my argument is, what is it? and that's the question that's starting to make people reflect. yet the longer the uncertainty continues, the greater the risk that

progress comes unstitched. would you vote brexit again? i would like to think that with the promotion of more information, the population of burnley would be better informed. the eu, they're going to have to show their cards at some point, so it will probably go down to the wire, like our season in the prem. some are anxious, some have turned, some are impatient for progress, both on and off the pitch. after a 1—0 defeat, burnley remain without a win in the premier league. it has been tough since the summer. sound familiar? so why are they so bullish about brexit when we know very little about the deal that britain is going for a royalfamily about the deal that britain is going for a royal family at? about the deal that britain is going for a royalfamily at? the chamber of commerce say to me that is because they already deal with 20, 30, 40 because they already deal with 20, 30, a0 different country, they export to the us us under world trade organisation rules and because they have this specialised workforce which is growing and developing, and they have cheaper wages than the

cities, if for instance there was no dole, and britain was to deal under its own tariffs with the rest of the world, that might bring down some of the culture secretaries of exporting and that might just the culture secretaries of exporting and that mightjust give them the edge over some of the chinese companies in which they are up against on a global platform, so they are bullish, they are resilient here, what they really want though, is some certainty, because while these investors are coming in, they wa nt to these investors are coming in, they want to foe what the her don is for the next four or five years so what leader say here, is get on with it, make a decision, tell us and we can adapt. thank you christian. the international monetary fund says that if britain leaves the eu without a deal, it would inflict substantial costs on the uk economy. the imf‘s managing director, christine lagarde, said that all brexit outcomes would entail costs, but that a disorderly departure would lead to a reduction in the size of the uk economy. our economics editor kamal ahmed has the story. it is coming towards us at pace.

brexit day. so much still to do. a daunting prospect, the imf said, as they arrive from america for the annual analysis of the uk economy. christine lagarde said it was time for wise heads to get a deal done. overcoming differences, reaching agreement, and closing a deal with the eu will be critical to avoid a no—deal brexit, which would impose very large cost on the uk economy. could you outline why you think a no—deal would be so bad for the uk economy? it would be a shock to supply. it would inevitably have a series of consequences, in terms of... reduced growth, going forward. increased deficit, most likely. depreciation of the currency. and it would...

you know... in reasonably short order mean... a reduction of the size of... the uk economy. alongside the chancellor, in almost full agreement. we must heed the clear warnings of the imf and others of the significant cost that not reaching a deal with the eu will have for britishjobs and british prosperity. i was here for the 2017 imf report on the uk economy. and certainly, this year, much more concerned about the possible costs of brexit. 2017, the imf was welcoming progress on those brexit negotiations. this year, real worry that the no deal option is even on the table. today, jaguar land rover said it would cut production because of headwinds affecting the car industry, days after its chief executive warned a no—deal brexit would be horrifying. the imf said a weaker pound had helped exit exports and others said a close deal could see an economic boost.

towards the end of the year i think everyone would be very pleased if the november inflation report and we adjusted our assumption because we knew what the agreement was for the end state. six months to go and the uk still has a lot of brexit homework to do, the imf said. no sign, as far as that economic body is concerned, of as yet, any brexit dividend. and we'll find out how this story — and many others — are covered in tomorrow's front pages at 10:a0 and 11:15 this evening in the papers — our guests joining me tonight are chief political correspondent at the telegraph christopher hope, and deputy comment editor at the financial times, miranda green. the headlines on bbc news. her way or no way: theresa may says

mps will have to choose between her approach to brexit and leaving the european union without a deal. but her most outspoken critic, borisjohnson, says the chequers plan would not fulfil the will of the people — calling it a "political disaster". the international monetary fund warns that a "no—deal" brexit on world trade organization terms would entail "substa ntial costs" for the uk economy. coming up — rescuers in the philippines are digging through mud to find dozens buried by a landslide after typhoon mangkhut battered the country. sport now. and for a full round up, from the bbc sport centre, here'sjeanette. good evening. great britain has won two gold medals at the world equestrian games in north carolina.

a flawless round from ros canter on her horse allstar b clinched team gold and was also good enough for the individual title. piggy french, gemma tattersall and tom mcewan make up the team along with canter. it's britain's sixth team world title, their first since 2010. one game in the premier league tonight. southampton and brighton are just over 15 minutes into their game. the south coast neighbours have four points each from their opening four matches. its currently 0—0. liverpool begin their champions league campaign tomorrow night at home to paris st—germain. but they could be missing one of their star strikers. roberto firmino missed training at melwood today following the injury to his eye in the premier league match against tottenham at wembley on saturday. managerjurgen klopp said firmino would have missed the match had it been played tonight, but will wait as long as he can to try to include the brazilian. know what the everybody saw the picture after the

game, we were all shocked, and we had first time contact with him after he was in hospital, it was a big relief, all of us, so it's painful, it's nobody wants to have that, nobody needs that, but it, he will be fine. we don't know exactly when. england women's rugby union players will be given full—time professional contracts from next year. contracts were controversially scrapped after the 2017 world cup as the rfu focused on 7s rugby. but now there will be 28 contracts available plus seven elite player agreements. the sport's governing body said it demonstrates their commitment to growing the women's game and their ambition to be the world's number one team. it is the same direction we planned coming out of the rugby world cup. we decided to take the sevens route while we contested at the same time put a new competition in place that

could build the player pool to enable to us have a larger player pool enable to us have a larger player pool, and a more elite pool we can choose from, the best players to ta ke choose from, the best players to take them through into 2021 world cup. we are going indon tracts for players in the #15s game as well as the sevens. sevens. england and great britain goalkeeper maddie hinch is taking a break from international hockey. hinch has won gold medals at the olympic games and european championships, with more medal success at two commonwealth games. but the 29—year—old says she needs time out of the sport both physically and emotionally, although she isn't ruling out a return for the tokyo 2020 olympics. and some sad news from the world of boxing — the calzaghe family have announced that the boxing trainer, enzo calzaghe has died at the age of 69. enzo calzaghe, is the father of the former world boxing champion joe, and had guided his son to becoming a world champion in two different weight classes in an undefeated a6—fight career as a professional. he was self—taught as a trainer and won the bbc‘s coach of the year award in 2007.

enzo also went on to lead gavin rees and enzo maccarinelli to world titles in the sport. tributes are being paid from the world of boxing. cruiserweight world champion tony bellew credited him, along withjoe, with creating a style of boxing that was unbeatable. fomer light heavyweight world champion nathan cleverly says enzo calzaghe had a big influence on his career. and the boxing ring announcer michael buffer said calzaghe had touched many people within the sport and would be sadly missed. enzo calzaghe, who has died at the age of 69. that's all the sport for now. i'll have more for you in sportsday at 10.30. the mp tobias ellwood has told the inquests into the victims of the westminster bridge attack how he fought to save the life of pc keith palmer, who had been stabbed outside parliament. the officer, and four other people who were run over by khalid masood on the bridge, died after the attack

in march last year. our home affairs correspondent daniel sandford reports from the old bailey. the photographs of the minister, tobias ellwood, helping in the desperate efforts to save pc keith palmer's life became some of the defining images of last year's westminster attack. today he arrived at pc palmer's inquest to give his official account of that traumatic day. he described the panic inside parliament, with people shouting "go back", as he went forward. and how he walked past a line of armed police officers, pointing their guns, to go and help their unarmed colleague, who had been stabbed by khalid masood. when he got there, he found pc palmer with, among other injuries, a serious knife wound onto his left armpit. it lost a lot of blood and he was unconscious, tobias ellwood told the course. i checked for a pulse, there was a pulse.

the minister said he tried to stop the bleeding but his heart soon stopped and they started cpr. at one point, he was close to tears in court, saying "forgive me, sometimes it's easier to do the helping them to talk about it afterwards". when a doctor arrived on the airambulance, there still seemed to be a chance but even surgery on the spot couldn't save the police officer and he died. the doctor moved on to help other patients, leaving the minister and one other person behind. "we both tidied up the body as best we could", tobias ellwood said. "closed the eyes and i said i'm sorry". this afternoon, the inquest started looking at the armed officers, who were on duty on the day that khalid masood burst through the gates of parliament and stabbed pc keith palmer. his family wept as the court watched cctv footage of two armed officers

patrolling near the gate at a quarter to two, but then patrolling elsewhere until after the attack, almost an hour later. pc palmer's family then heard one of those armed officers, lee ashby, said on wednesday as they were encouraged to patrol where ministers were dropped off in their cars for prime minister's questions rather than by the open gates of parliament, where pc palmer was left undefended. he said he had not agreed with those instructions. daniel sandford, bbc news at the old bailey. in the philippines hopes are fading of finding survivors buried by a landslide that has killed at least 32 people in a mining town. the gold miners and their families had sought refuge from typhoon mangkhut in a temporary shelter on the side of a steep mountain. more than 65 people are thought to have died across the philippines following the typhoon. our correspondentjonathan head is there, he sent this report. in the end, it wasn't the wind, but the rain

that was the real killer. that huge brown gash in the mountain is where an entire waterlogged hillside slid down and buried a building where dozens of miners had taken shelter from the typhoon. for two days, rescuers have battled to find survivors, clambering over the treacherous mud. they've been unable to bring up heavier excavation equipment because of the damaged roads. so far, only bodies have been recovered. dozens more are believed to be trapped under the mud. they aren't sure exactly how many. relatives have come up, to wait for news, clinging to the hope that there may yet be survivors. translation: this is the first time i've seen a landslide this massive. almost everyone here is affected. even the miners are helping the rescuers, the police, everyone is giving their best. further north, where they bore the brunt of the storm,

they're starting to count the cost. in places, it's been very high. not so much in lives lost, but in damage to homes, crops and infrastructure. the lessons learned from previous typhoons have certainly cut the death toll in this one. filipinos now know to heed official advice to evacuate their homes when a storm is on the way. but the tragedy of the buried miners underlines just how vulnerable this country is to natural disasters. its eroded and deforested hillsides are all too prone to collapse under the weight of heavy rainfall. and they get that all the time during the typhoon season. jonathan head, bbc news, northern philippines. now let's go live to the philippines to talk tojerome balinton, humanitarian response officer for save the children. we are grateful for your time.

please tell us exactly where you are, and what the impact of the typhoon has been there? right. now we are based in the north. it is 150 kilometres away from the town where the typhoon made landfall. it shows the typhoon made landfall. it shows the extent of damage to people's home, schools and massive impact to livelihood. thousands off houses are flattened or damaged. more than 300 classrooms in this part of the country are totally damaged and the typhoon left massive impact to fields of corn, rice and banana, there by impacting the agriculture of this part of the country. people from the north rely on agriculture

as their main source of livelihood, so as their main source of livelihood, so the typhoon has severely impacted their food security and income gap. as you say people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods and they do have insurance either, do they? yes, that is true. people rely on agriculture as their main source of livelihood. planting rice, planting corn, planting banana, and most of these people are poor families, don't have insurance that can families, don't have insurance that ca n cover families, don't have insurance that can cover the loss of their crops whenever that disaster hits. so what is save the children's top priority, how is it that you are trying to help? save the children is an humanitarian organisation for children, it is particularly concerned is on the long—term impact

of this typhoon to the children's access to education, right now we have monitored about 300 totally damaged classrooms and they are totally gone. and it affects the children, it will prolong, prolong their out of school, being out of school. there by causing risk that may arise from the impact of this disaster. right now save the children will focus on providing support for education in order for the children to continue schooling even while there is the the huge impact of this crisis. we are also providing support for families, by ensuring that they can immediately replace or the damaged household or essentials and immediately repair the house that were damaged by this typhoon. but what kind of challenges are you facing, in transporting leaf and goods and indeed people to help

in these areas? in this, in this area, well, it's, it's quite fortu nate area, well, it's, it's quite fortunate that there are no major logistical challenges, there are some minor challenges like limited load capacity of bridge, but for humanitarian organisations and government agency, we are doing our best, to make sure that this minor challenges don't impede our operations in delivering aid. we are very grateful for your time. thank you. thank you. british and french fishermen have reached a deal to end the dispute over scallop fishing in the channel. last month boats collided and fishermen threw stones at each other as the french accused uk boats of depleting scallop stocks. the agreement will see larger british boats withdrawing from a disputed area off the normandy coast for six weeks. the woman who has accused donald trump's nominee

for the supreme court of physical and sexual assault while they were both at high school has offered to testify in front of the congressional committee considering the confirmation. speaking through her lawyer, christine blasey ford, offered to speak to the committee which is due to vote on brett kava naugh‘s nomination later this week. lawmakers from both sides of the political divide have called for a delay in the vote. mr kavanaugh says the allegations are "completely false. " in the last hour, donald trump told reporters in the white house roosevelt room he believed kavanaugh‘s nomination remained on track and he has full confidence in his nominee. judge kavanaugh is one of the finest people that i have ever known, he is an outstanding intellect and outstanding judge, respected by everybody, never had everyone a

little blemish on his record, the fb. it has i think gone through a process six times with him over the yea rs process six times with him over the years where he went to higher and higher position, he is somebody very special, at the same time we want to go through a process, we want to make sure everything is perfect, just right. i wish the democrats could have done that lot sooner because they had this information for many months, and they shouldn't have waited until literally the last day, they should have done it a lot sooner day, they should have done it a lot sooner but with all of that being said we want to go through the process. i can talk now to our correspondent gary o'donohue in washington. a very tense political environment there. it is extremely difficult, isn't it, who is telling the truth in this case. this took place 36 yea rs in this case. this took place 36 years ago. and that brings with it all sorts of legal difficulties, obviously. there was a witness, at least one at the time, a man called

markjudd, who was in the room at the same time according to christine ford. what he has been arced trinkets—mac asked to remember is that, but he has no recollection of that. it is not conclusive. there is a way this could be investigated. but, at the moment, in terms of the committee, it may end up being who becomes more believable or who is more believable. if she gives her evidence to the senators and kavanaugh evidence to the senators and kava naugh gives evidence to the senators and kavanaugh gives his answers, quite a lot of it will come down to who believe so. we must leave it there for now. thank you. now it's time for a look at the weather with chris fawkes. hello there. some pretty turbulent weather on the way over the next few days, with some strong winds buffeting parts of the uk. now, the strongest winds as we go through this evening and overnight will be across wales and south—west england, as a band of rain begins to swing in here. we will get the winds gusting to around 50 or 60mph around the coast and hills.

it's strong enough to bring down some tree branches. there could be some debris out on the roads first thing in the morning to watch out for. transport disruption possible. at the same time heavy rain gets into western parts of the country and it will be a mild and muggy night for many of us. a met office yellow warning is in force for these strong winds that through tuesday will extend from south—west england, wales, across the midlands and into northern counties of england. there will be a blustery day with heavy rain easing to patchy rain and drizzle for a time through the morning further south, the wettest weather for the afternoon heading into scotland, with more rain coming back in to western counties of northern ireland. england and wales then slowly brightening up and it will another warm day across eastern areas. temperatures again climbing into the mid 20s. that's your weather. hello, this is bbc news. the headlines. with six months to go until brexit, the prime minister insists the only alternative to her plan is to leave the eu with no deal. the international monetary fund

warns that a "no—deal" brexit on world trade organization terms would entail "substa ntial costs" for the uk economy. a race against time, as rescuers in the philippines dig through mud to try to find dozens buried by a landslide after typhoon mangkhut battered the country. details emerge of how the mp tobias ellwood battled to save police officer keith palmer, who was stabbed to death in the westminster bridge attack. leaders from british and french fishing industries agree on a deal to end the so—called "scallop wars" in the english channel. and, coming up, runway robots make their london fashion week debut. we'll find out if it's an idea that will take off. with the clock ticking down to march 29th,

how much money has been spent preparing for brexit? and what impact will leaving the eu have on the uk's finances in the long run? here's chris mason with the story so far. with the help of the bbc news virtual reality studio. since the referendum, the government has allocated an extra £3.7 billion or so to prepare for brexit. of that, the largest sum to date, £a55 million, has gone to the home office, the department with the job of creating a new immigration system. the department for the environment, food and rural affairs has been given £377 million. it has the luck of replacing the eu's policies on things like fishing and farming. there's also the cost of two brand spanking new departments. they gobble up nearly £a81 million. yeah, there's a lot of paperwork to do. and someone's got to do it. then there's that brexit divorce bill for the uk's share of eu commitments made before it

decided to leave. that will be up to £39 billion. so, splitting up... ..is pricey. but those in favour of leaving say those costs are relatively small compared to the money that could be saved when the uk goes its own way. that is where this bus comes in. during the referendum campaign, some brexit supporters claimed the uk sends £350 million a week to brussels. that's the equivalent of about £18 billion a year. but once you take into account the rebate, that's the uk's discount to its eu membership fee, and money sent to brussels that gets parcelled up and sent back to pay for stuff here in the uk, the figure is more like £9 billion. that's a more realistic estimate of the cash that could, theoretically, be saved and spent on schools or the nhs. but with six months to go, there are still bucketfuls of unknowns. what will our future relationship with the eu look like? will we stick pretty close to its rules or not?

and what deals will be done around the world? and will withdrawal agreement be signed up to in the next few months, and with it a transition period, where not a lot changes for the best part of two years after brexit in march next year? given is this sizeable collection of questions and... ..not many answers, one of the hardest things to predict is what will happen to the economy after the 29th of march next year. any disruption could wipe out the money saved from eu membership. back in 2016, the office for budget responsibility predicted that borrowing would increase by £15 billion by 2021 as a result of leaving. that's partly down to predicted slower productivity growth and reduced migration. if the uk walks away with next to nothing agreed, no deal brexit in the jargon, then that will throw up even more questions about what our future might hold. we'll be answering some

of the most common questions about brexit this week. today, our deputy political editor john pienaar has been looking at the impact that brexit could have on immigration. how will trade work, after brexit? will we be richer or poorer? why haven't we left yet? will migrants still be able to come? corn fritters, anyone? first, someone has to pick it. and here, on this farm outside peterborough, for ten hours a day, the answer's this team of bulgarians and romanians. does britain need so many migrants? well, not enough natives want to do work like this. not here at this farm outside peterborough, not in a lot of places. florin, do you think you're taking british jobs? yeah, i think yes, because they don't want to do this job. we need money and should take this job. some places where you rarely see a migrant voted for brexit, too. so, who will get a welcome to britain after brexit? everyone expected more migrants

after the eu expanded in 200a, with ten new countries. but it wasn't just a trickle. numbers increased and then increased again. until that increase reached 189,000 in 2016, the year of the vote to leave. in these parts, foreign labour has always come in and been welcomed. italians and poles, after the war. from the commonwealth, in later decades. the face of britain has changed completely. nothing much changes immediately on brexit day. migrants already part of the british picture can stay, whatever happens. though they will have to register. free movement goes on, during a brexit transition, if there is a brexit deal. and there could be a visa system, like the one from non—eu workers, for somejobs. and those numbers have already gone up, much higher than those coming from europe. thanks very much. take a look round peterborough and lots of places.

plenty of businesses run by migrants, many more which rely on them. then there's agriculture, construction, cleaning and hospitality. it also means pressure and some complaints about wages kept low, strain on schools, hospitals. working out the uk's needs for migrants, then matching that need and still satisfying those voters who want tighter control, that may turn out to be a political mission impossible. what do you think? does migration cause a strain? yes, i think so. there's more population now, so it's got to put strain on the... hospitals, and everything else, really. you can't please everyone. the government's target for cutting net migration may be changed or scrapped in future, but either way, more will come, perhaps in future, mostly from outside europe, to live and work in businesses and services. planning the new face of britain will be hard. recruiting and training brits to do the job some

migrants do, tougher still. and maybe hardest of all, politically, selling that vision to the country. john pienaar, bbc news, peterborough. and we'll have more key brexit questions coming up through the week including what it could mean for the union and whether we'll be richer or poorer after we leave. we will now ask what impact will leaving the eu have on the economy. with me is trade specialist and former international trade negotiation jason hunter. and i'm alsojoined by david paton, professor of industrial economics at nottingham university, and member of economists for free trade os. we are very grateful to both of you for joining we are very grateful to both of you forjoining us. jason, if i might start with you, let's look into the crystal ball and imagine we leave

the eu in six months with no deal. how easy would it be to trade under world trade organisation terms? do you remember when the question was asked of the remainers during the referendum and everyone screamed project fear? reject fear turned into project fact. what we now need to start doing is get ready for project catastrophe because no deal is the most likely outcome of the discussions. what it means for the uk economy is everything we export around the world will have one of the highest tariffs that it is possible to apply. if we sell a widget today for a pound to mexico, canada, united states, japan, south korea, anywhere within the eu 27 outside of it, everything we export will become more expensive for our customers to buy from us and more complex and more complicated. 5.a million small to medium—sized enterprises in the uk, the economists for brexit say 23a,000 of

those currently ship to the european union without any problems, friction free. each of those will have costs of thousands of pounds to get frayed forwarders, customs agents or they will have to figure it out themselves and nobody knows how to do it. ok, if there was a no deal, david, under world trade organisation terms, do you accept that will incur costs as both jason and the international monetary fund suggest? it doesn't look like you're there, david, so jason i'm going to carry on talking to you, if i may. so, what about the argument some people say if we leave with no deal and it is world trade organisation terms, the reality is we will end up making lots of mini deals which will enable the economy to function.“ you think about it, right now we have the best deal possible with the largest market on the planet. as one is that, as a member of the eu, we

have 3a different trade agreements with different countries and trade blocs, so we have 60 countries around the world we can export to freely and much more easily, including the usa. to save david having to say it, half of our trade they claim isn't with the eu, and they claim isn't with the eu, and they are right, 55% is with those other countries around the world. we don't always have to have complete free trade agreement because you end up free trade agreement because you end up with that. before that, you have an engagement, before that you have very few dates and a feud froome calls before that. what do you have for the usa are dozens and dozens of cooperation agreements, which is the first stage is to get to an fta further down the line and these things take years and if you ask any of the experts around the world in international trade, they will say if the uk leads with no deal, the first place they are likely to go to and geta first place they are likely to go to and get a trade deal with, the quickest and easiest one will be

canada because they have a rubberised trinket—mac liberalised economy and governance structure. you are looking to years for a trade deal with canada, that is the quick one. the eu? more than that. and then we have 60 other countries after that. david, sorry about that, we had a few problems establishing contact with you. i don't know how much of that you had but if we discussed having a no deal and britain leaves the eu under world trade organisation terms, do you accept any deals we will make will ta ke yea rs accept any deals we will make will take years and they will be costly? 0k... well, ok... well, david, i'm really sorry, we can see you but we can't hear. while we tried to match your voice to yourface, jason, i'll

while we tried to match your voice to your face, jason, i'll come while we tried to match your voice to yourface, jason, i'll come back to yourface, jason, i'll come back to you. the crux here, of course, is that people voted to take back control, didn't they? forthe that people voted to take back control, didn't they? for the uk to be free to trade with whoever they like, whenever we like. you can't just reject the decision of 17 million people, can you, because you don't agree with them? that isn't what i'm saying. two years on, 2016, we no vote to leave lied. we know that leave. eu lied, they broke the law, the electoral commission have prosecuted them. david cameron said there would be world war iii. george osborne said we'd have an emergency budget and the world will collapsed. nothing happened, everybody lied, that isn't democracy. if you think that isn't democracy. if you think thatis that isn't democracy. if you think that is ok, you don't believe in democracy and what you believe in is brexit which is ridiculous. we have to have a fair, free and open vote now in what the dealers. let's find out what no deal means. experts will run the world are telling us this is

what happens under wto or you stay in the eu. or you have theresa may's checkers deal. what that unable us to trade freely? that is off the table. the any people talk about checkers are in westminster. in brussels and everywhere asked the looking at this and say, were trinket—mac what are they playing at? the deal that everybody in the world is expecting to happen and the one we said we would do consists of securing the rights of citizens in the eu and the uk, second point was the eu and the uk, second point was the financial settlement, and the third point was the order on the island of ireland. getting a permanent solution to those things. that is all that is involved within the article 50 discussions. there are smaller things like kanha cornish pasty be called a cornish pasty if it is made in france... that'll be the easy thing. we have to get those three points agreed by next month. we are talking four

weeks away, october 18 is the deadline to have those three points done. and then we leave on 29th of march next year once that is ratified. it is extremely unlikely theresa may will ask the eu to break up theresa may will ask the eu to break up theirfull theresa may will ask the eu to break up their full basic founding principles of the single market and say we just want access to the single market for good but not services and free movement of people. if you look at the size of the populations, it'd be like kaza khsta n the populations, it'd be like kazakhstan coming to the united kingdom and saying we demand a free trade deal, but we only want to work with england and scotland, we don't wa nt to with england and scotland, we don't want to work with wales and northern ireland and you have to split it up... that is what theresa may is asking! for the eu to break up the fundamental principles of the trading block. and they are our nearest neighbours. six months to 90, nearest neighbours. six months to go, we are very nearest neighbours. six months to go, we are very grateful for talking to you. the headlines on bbc news. her way or no way. theresa may says mps will have to choose between her approach to brexit and leaving the european union without a deal.

but her most outspoken critic, borisjohnson, says the chequers plan would not fulfil the will of the people calling it a "political disaster." rescuers in the philippines are digging through mud to find dozens buried by a landslide after typhoon mangkhut battered the country. and, coming up, runway robots make their london fashion week debut. we'll find out if it's an idea that will take off. decades of physical cruelty and child sex abuse allegations at a children s home in argyll have been have been uncovered by a bbc investigation. the claims centre around lagarie children s home which was run by the christian charity, the sailors society. the society says it "apologises unreservedly" to the children abused in its care. mark daly from bbc disclosure has this report. lagarie children's home in rhu,

argyll is run by christian charity, the sailors' society, and was supposed to be a safe haven for the children of seafarers. but a bbc disclosure investigation has revealed claims of decades of physical cruelty and child sex abuse. roddy austin was there. unless you've lived it, you can't try to fathom what went on in that place. she was immaculate and she was evil. she was matron ann miller who ran the home until 1970. she picked me up by my ears, throw me in a cold bath, soap on her fingers, put my head back, and her fingers down my throat. anna miller dies with her reputation intact. she was replaced by this couple. the reverend william barrie and his wife mary in 1972. former resident euan macdonald said they were cruel and abusive. it was a christian system

you had to live by. you wet the bed, you get the bed sheets rubbing in your face. mr barrie would hold you down and she would belt you. she would hold you down and he would belt you. survival at lagarie came at a cost. former residents angela montgomery and her two sisters, mary and norma, said that, over the years, they were sexually abused by mr barrie and his sailor‘s scoiety associates hundreds of times. after a while, as unpleasant as it was... not that you get used to it. there was no point struggling orfighting. there was a level of acceptance. it became part and parcel of life at lagarie. the home closed in 1982 and william barrie died just over a decade later. two police investigations have failed to bring charges against anyone. mary barrie died just last year.

the sailors' society said they were committed to working with survivors of abuse. i was horrified when i heard this. we do regret that any abuse happened and we have apologised unreservedly that this abuse happened. just a few days ago, the scottish child abuse inquiry announced it would investigate lagarie and for the children who grew up there, they are still learning to live with the past. let's go back to our main story now. with six months to go until brexit, the palestinians since the any alternative to her plan is to leave the eu with no deal. that comes on a day the international monetary fund warned a no—deal brexit would entail substantial warned a no—deal brexit would entail su bsta ntial costs warned a no—deal brexit would entail substantial costs is for the uk economy. we're joined

substantial costs is for the uk economy. we'rejoined now by substantial costs is for the uk economy. we're joined now by david paton, professor of industrial economics at nottingham university and member of economists for free trade. we were trying to talk to you earlier and had a few problems so thank you for your patience. i want to explore this idea of a no deal brexit. and if, then, the uk was trading under world trade organisation terms, do you accept that would incur substantial costs? not relative to the situation we're in at the moment. you have to remember trade is not free with the european union at the moment. we pay a fee of £14 million gross for the right to trade freely with the european union, that is a huge amount of money. there is no need for us to be paying money for a mutually beneficial deal. the canada has traded freely with the european union without paying that fee. leaving the eu will let us explore

other deals without paying that money. if we leave without a formal trade deal, doesn't mean we won't strike one in the future and the idea it'll take two years or more to strike one with the eu is i'm afraid nonsense. we start from a position where our standards are the same and what we should be looking for now is a deal similar to that with canada where we trade without tariffs. 0f course, leaving without a deal has other advantages. with trinkets—mac we would save money on the divorce bill. we would get the benefits of brexit much earlier without the transition. there are significant benefits from us leaving further european union in that we will be out of this protectionist wall which the eu sets to countries outside the eu and which forces prices up to uk consumers. but our economy or do you accept our economy has been

constructed over decades because we are part of the single market? and any change to that is surely going to have a knock—on effect on businesses and the wider economy. shortly. of course there will be effects. they will be good and bad. the problem with the single market is that it affects every firm producing in the united kingdom. some of those rules are good, some of them are defined just for the eu. for example, the poults directive would be very damaging for our ports. we will be able to decide which rules work for our businesses and which don't which could give us and which don't which could give us a significant boost to our economy. what about if theresa may gets her way and achieves this chequers deal? would that help the uk economy? the

chequers deal is flawed, which proposes to keep us in the single market for good so we don't get those advantages of being outside the eu. that goes against what theresa may promised to do over the past few years. everyone on every side seems to not like the chequers deal. there would be some advantages in that we wouldn't be leaving the eu -- in that we wouldn't be leaving the eu —— we would be leaving the eu, we wouldn't be charged high tariffs, which put up prices for uk consumers but it is and what we should be aiming for. we should be looking for aiming for. we should be looking for a free—trade deal the eu without being in the customs union. professor david patten from nottingham university and member of economists for free trade, thank you for your time and patience, thank you. a silicon valley—based robotics company has made its debut at london fashion week placing

robots on the runway. wearing one—of—a—kind creations from fashion designer honee, the show marked the first time robots walked the ramp in london. the collection was inspired by the theme of telepresence featuring both human and robotic models. with me now is the fashion stylist and commentator basma khalifa. thank you for coming in. is this the future of fashion? it isn't. clothes are made for people so i think it is strange we'd want clothes and robots. clothes are made for people. it doesn't make any sense to me. well, these models which will get out of bed for less than $10,000, as linda evangelista famously said.|j get it, i understand. maybe it would save money. i don't get it. the whole point of the runway is to see

how the clothes would fall. i don't know why robot would be more human than human. isn't fashion about innovation, it's always been about what is new quiz? what is new i innovation, it's always been about what is new i agree. while we are challenging ethnic diversity, its challenger to get it right before we move on to robots. the organisers of this particular show so we are in a world of artificial intelligence and whether we like it or not, this is a logical extension of that. they have a point, don't they? i agree with them with technology having its place, it is taking over and artificial intelligence is but i still think that fashion is a celebration of people, that is the whole point of fashion. at the end of the day, we are talking about clothes. we can show accessories on robots, though, contrary? even shoes? i want to see how a shoe fits ona shoes? i want to see how a shoe fits on a foot not on a robot.|j

shoes? i want to see how a shoe fits on a foot not on a robot. i suppose isn't necessarily a question of replacing models but perhaps supplementing them, dare one say, to make fashion shows more interesting? if i'm honest that's why they did it because it gets people talking. and we are talking about it. we're not talking about fashion week and fashion. i think people are more interesting than robots and i think the way our industry is going, especially london fashion week, we are celebrating diversity and celebrating so many things this year, so many celebrations of victoria beckham. .. we year, so many celebrations of victoria beckham... we don't need robots to make a statement, let's use people to make statements. i'm getting the impression it isn't the future of fashion. a fashion file for you? lovely to talk to you. thank you for having me. hello there. some pretty turbulent weather on the way over the next few days, with some strong winds buffeting parts of the uk. now, the strongest winds as we go through this evening and overnight will be across wales and south—west

england, as a band of rain begins to swing in here. we will get the winds gusting to around 50 or 60mph around the coast and hills. it's strong enough to bring down some tree branches. there could be some debris out on the roads first thing in the morning to watch out for. transport disruption possible. at the same time heavy rain gets into western parts of the country and it will be a mild and muggy night for many of us. a met office yellow warning is in force for these strong winds that through tuesday will extend from south—west england, wales, across the midlands and into northern counties of england. there will be a blustery day with heavy rain easing to patchy rain and drizzle for a time through the morning further south, the wettest weather for the afternoon heading into scotland, with more rain coming back in to western counties of northern ireland. england and wales then slowly brightening up and it will another warm day across eastern areas. temperatures again climbing into the mid 20s. that's your weather. hello, i'm ros atkins, this is outside source.

an allegation of sexual abuse has thrown the confirmation hearing for president trump's nominee for the supreme court into turmoil. some republicans have nowjoined calls for a vote to be delayed. typhoon mangkhut is now the biggest storm the world has seen this year, it's caused devastation in the phillippines and across china. there's been a breakthrough in syria. russia and turkey have agreed to provide a buffer zone for people trapped in the last rebel stronghold there idlib, which is facing attack. and in australia, there have been multiple incidents of strawberries found containing sewing needles inside. the health minister's calling it a "vicious crime".