tv Dateline London BBC News September 22, 2018 11:30am-12:01pm BST
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if not the sound of music — at least that her european partners would take her in their arms and try the new brexit steps she was suggesting. instead, eu president donald tusk, who had previously praised the "positive evolution" of the uk prime minister's fancy footwork — known as the chequers proposal — now labelled it "unworkable". she would have to dance to the eu tune. mrs may left salzburg and on friday made clear that, if this was the only option, she would prefer not to dance at all. this war is intended to a challenging week, to say the least, for the prime minister. this was an challenging week. why did they allow this to happen? allow what's to happen? i will try to be respectful. nothing new happened in salzburg. the eu leaders have been seeing what
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they said in salzburg for two years now. the day after salzburg, look at the european press, you get some lines on the salzburg meeting, the a few articles here and there and then in the uk you're looking at the british press and have got macron on half the front page of the daily telegraph, forjust half the front page of the daily telegraph, for just repeating half the front page of the daily telegraph, forjust repeating what he said before, that is to say, he respects the referendum's outcome but brexiteers wide to the british people. and donald tusk, he had a moment of humour against gram that is nothing worse than the spectacle of the humourless britain. —— moments of humour and instagram. jeremy hunt is now summoning the
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spirit of dunkirk. we are not at war with the nazis. i know you have lots to say, janet. but ijust want with the nazis. i know you have lots to say, janet. but i just want to say that the only people disrespecting theresa may brexiteers and they do that on a daily basis. that is the irish border question which has to be resolved and it is only one solution, it is the norway minus because it means customs union and no hard brexit and no hard border. but stay with salzburg first. janet, dead theresa may overplay her hand with this big —— did theresa may overplay her hand with this ideal or no deal? nobody expected chequers to fly, no deal? nobody expected chequers to fly, that's not the issue. the issue is how it was treated by the eu figures who definitely overplayed their hand. they have now reinvigorated the credibility of her
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leadership to an extent i never dream possible last week. macron use of the world liars about a significant proportion of the political in this country was extraordinary, that is the language you use when you are about to declare war on another country, not in trade negotiations. they have not said anything different from the last two years, that is the problem. there has been no movement, absolutely not attempt. negotiation is the french word, right? we should know what they called cherry picking is you like some bits, you don't like other bits. the idea you don't budge on anything, the british think they are doing politics, the europeans are doing theology. that's the difference. this is a franco german metaphysical system. when
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emmanuel macron talks about the integrity of the single market, these are trade negotiations. this is not... i am going to deny that they were ever theological... this is being treated as sacred text. what about the integrity of the democratic state? that is what is being put forward. now you are really going back in history... to the 18th century. absolutely. 21992 and the maastricht negotiations —— back to 1992. the last produced by mr hu was so abused by his own party wasn'tjohn major who kept britain out of the euro. at that time they made a genuine concessions, we got out of the social chapter, but they are not negotiating now.
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i bet you and i probably agree on much of the mistakes the british side has made. the full year of david davis going to meetings with nothing in his briefcase was not negotiating. chequers was presented in latejuly, negotiating. chequers was presented in late july, boris johnson negotiating. chequers was presented in latejuly, borisjohnson left and since then he has called it a suicide vest. now that is humiliating. let's just go through the history of this week. no, let's not. here is the specifics, the more specific things said by any senior tory politician last week was by our old colleague on this panel michael gove who once again reiterated in it agreement reached... he supported chequers, he has discredited himself, i'm sorry to say. he went on to reiterate and i'm sure he will do again before we leave,
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this parliament will not be bound by any agreements... let me say, i have a real horse in that race because i am afraid i may have started that particular avalanche when i said in print everybody was saying chequers is the worst possible deal and we will be locked into a permanently and i said, somewhat regret now, nothing is permanent and international relations and the treaties could a lwa ys relations and the treaties could always be renegotiated, particularly trade negotiations. that is the line the chequers apologists are taking now, this would not be permanent. you need to start somewhere. absolutely but i do not think checkers is the right starting place. to what extent do you think, isabel, this bus stop was going to happen now and it may be a good thing happens now because it may help theresa may through what would have been a very difficult party conference and might mean the
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europeans carry on negotiating with someone europeans carry on negotiating with someone they might be able to do business with as opposed to a future tory leader who might be considerably less amenable. possible but i think it was inevitable in theresa may has been struggling to deliver the undeliverable in leaving the eu and returning the benefits. i don't find it surprising eu leaders are pointing this out, if you want to leave the club it's going to be tricky. because we have a committee of people with their own interests who are not part of your fantasy world. brexit was premised on a fa ntasy world, world. brexit was premised on a fantasy world, a fantasy about how europe would behave and how europe so britain and how good are they did britain more than britain's leading europe. and a fantasy about the unexplored opportunities outside the eu, which is the biggerfallacy. none of these are deliverable in the real world because you have to have a party to deliver them. whether or not theresa may survives and whether
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or not she is challenged, that reality will not change. on the clock metaphor, what sort of organisation threatens people who wa nt organisation threatens people who want to leave —— clock metaphor. —— club. they are not threatening, they are just saying we would be sorry if you left but that is your choice. you're supposed to friendly nations. her original speech, the lancaster house speech offered in the most diplomatic language continued friendship and security. but the fundamental, one of the means of the last month has been 80% of the deal has already been done, i don't know what the 80% is what i do know the 20% that needs to be done and that is the northern irish border. this is not a club membership, and it is coloured by
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the fact it is deeply political. the 27 nations, the 26 plus ireland, are backing ireland. when you say backing ireland... there is no credible... ireland has said it will never enforce the hard border, the eu has also said this. the uk has said the same. where is the problem? this is a complete fiction, something blown out of all proportion with a very inexperienced irish prime minister who has become a world star as a consequence. some of this is a consequence of the decision taken early on which was to spot this process, you happy divorce deal and then the trade deal —— split this process. if you don't get together you would resolve this because the uk would have a trade deal with the eu which would then mean you would not have, they would
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never be an issue. they should not have triggered article 50 so quickly but theresa may had to prove to a party brexit meant brexit. the negotiation should have been simultaneous and that was the decision of the eu. the preliminary discussion should have stretched for longer but theresa may could not have consolidated her all over the party if she did not trigger article 50. this business of theresa may trying to get reforms, at one point she was positing something that would have been tantamount to associate membership that would have been a solution to not only our problems but the problems of the eu. lots of countries who would jump at the possibility of an associate membership without all the difficulties about schengen and so on. they did not take that even when david cameron offer it. he was offering the mildest conceivable reforms and they would not give him
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anything. free movement of people is critical. yesterday she said there is to eu citizens living in britain and you are welcome to stay and that was the most significant thing she said. that is something that should have been negotiated on six months ago. free movement of people effectively amounts to importing unemployed people from poor countries to supply cheap labour for rich countries. is there a deal still to do or is there no deal #. there will be, i think, a paper—thin deal that will please no one. can i just add something, we talked about europe, and that we should have been talking about british domestic politics because it is about the dup, we've not spoke about labour, labour is completely a wall on the brexit debate. in western europe, the first few months of the second world war is often described as the phoney war — it was officially on,
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but there were few military clashes. donald trump's trade war with china feels much the same. his trade officials spent months preparing evidence of what he regards as chinese transgressions, there's been public consultation on how to punish them, and there've been exemptions. with the us economy apparently booming, american consumers may hardly notice tariffs imposed on chinese imports. but what about china? there are signs that its economy is slowing. from monday, at least 44 per cent of its exports to the us will be affected. isabel, you are literallyjust back from china on friday night. we are grateful for you staggering into the studio after a journey like that. what would your impression of china's economy? the economy was scheduled to slow, there is a plan slowdown. that is not surprising. china has two moves through the middle income trap and transform its economic base. that has been anticipated. at the same time, it
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has a number of problems like massive debts, and some difficulties in getting the consumer and innovation park off the ground. but thatis innovation park off the ground. but that is all growing. i think it would be a big mistake to attribute the incipient trade war fought back to the credit for a slowdown. i was at the world economic forum meeting last week where the prime minister turned up to do the thing they now do at davos. it is very curious to watch these chinese leaders turning up watch these chinese leaders turning up talking to the business elite about, stay calm, we are with you, it will be fine, and defending the multilateral trade system. he addressed questions about the domestic economy because people are worried about chinese debt. presumably worried about the chinese banking system as well. the assumption is the state will not
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let it go most of the exposure is domestic so it's not quite lehman brothers. people are worried about it and they are worried because since the financial crisis china has over relied on investment in stimulus, in effect, building infrastructure and so on, for its continued growth. if it is not going to do that any more and we're getting to the outer edges of what can be done, what will take over and thatis can be done, what will take over and that is what he was talking about. he said we will not do another big fiscal stimulus, we will not do competitive devaluation, we are doing tax cuts, very reasonable set of pressures that he was putting forward is to mitigate the effects of the trade war, but also as an ongoing set of reforms. what he also made promises on, which i think were perhaps less, received with less credulity, was the idea china would
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continue to open its economy and trade on level terms with international partners. that is the element of donald trump's complain thatis element of donald trump's complain that is widely shared, eu firms, other companies constantly complain... james dyson in the uk used to complain about trade and you effectively have your ip taken. ip was also referenced in his speech, he said as the middle —— innovative country we are interested in protecting our.... you have an interesting multidimensional chess game going on where essentially the less hysterical pa rt game going on where essentially the less hysterical part of the world says to china, you are getting to the point where you cannot trade and fa ilover the point where you cannot trade and failover —— favourable wto terms, you were no longer the economy you
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we re you were no longer the economy you were when you joined. and the chinese are saying we will do that, i promise you and this is what we are doing. in the meantime they are trying to stop the plates wobbling on the many places that could be wobbling in the real economy. this tariff war that donald trump launched, looking at the figures, £189 billion —— launched, looking at the figures, £189 billion -- 100 launched, looking at the figures, £189 billion -— 100 $89 launched, looking at the figures, £189 billion —— 100 $89 billion of chinese goods will be hit on monday. the retaliation amounts to 60 billion, the logic would say it will hit china harder in america, at least initially. look at the goods. so soy beans are going to run expensive for china to produce treasure map —— they
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purchased them from argentina. the ship is the finished goods and that is part of the imbalance, the ship them from a cheaper than it would cost us to manufacture them. the thing people have to understand about donald trump in this trade war, i cannot imagine he would have sat still taking in these words of real powerful analysis from isabel. he would have been on the phone. he would have been on the phone. he operates at a different level, his trade advisers, a former ucla professor, plug the 1980s all over again but except japan we have china. —— instead ofjapan. the thing about american trade policy, it has become an executive decision, it's not something congress does so his inclination is to say, these guys from asia are messing with us, or canada is messing with us.
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because the guy trashed my hand when he shook my hand. and then that is the real world —— crash my hand. and the real world —— crash my hand. and the real world is fox corn, which was a villain for a long time has opened upa was a villain for a long time has opened up a plant in wisconsin, which is a state whose governor is a key party republican, who gave away the store in tax breaks to china, the store in tax breaks to china, the chinese company, to make iphones in wisconsin. it is total hypocrisy at one level. a seniorfigures at one level. a senior figures suggested around three quarters of the products are intermediate, consumers will not feel it so come the mid—term elections there will be saying, good on you, donald trump, fighting for americanjobs. donald trump in the time he has been president has not brought any new supporters to him, he held onto the
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ones he has got. they mostly do not ca re ones he has got. they mostly do not care because the super rich got their tax cuts and the other ones say, we are beating up on the chinese who have been taking advantage. that is the level of the understand it on, china takes advantage of us, we need to punchbag. there are many midwest farmers... so far they have remained very loyal. there are not as many small farmers who will be hit by this, these are people working for agribusiness companies. the chinese were wise enough to try not to negotiate anything before the mid—term elections so for the moment they choose to retaliate. the us is imposing tariffs, they are substantially produced by american companies in china and they are part
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ofa companies in china and they are part of a long and complicated supply chain which affects all of china's neighbouring countries who run the trade surplus with china. my bet is production will move out of china, which has been doing anyway because chinese labour is now more expensive so chinese labour is now more expensive so low—end production will move to vietnam, cambodia, african countries and therefore avoid tariffs. it will boost —— and therefore avoid tariffs. it will boost — — still and therefore avoid tariffs. it will boost —— still be chinese manufacturers but operating abroad. and the higher end companies, some will move to the us. presumably this is with the idea of bringing jobs back home, actually labour costs in the united states made it very hard to think you could bring many of these jobs home. donald trump is trying to wage the warand donald trump is trying to wage the war and globalism and globalism is a big problem in europe as well, the business of importing labour and goods, the hopelessness of trying to impose tariffs, everybody is adjusting, the whole political class
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is adjusting to the global economy and globalisation of labour. the problem is she seems to not grasp the complexity. i don't think he does complexity. we did not talk about apple. he wants apple to not only conceive everything in california but also produces everything in america. fine but then nobody will be able to afford their products because they will be three times more expensive than they already are. most of how does it affect us, in terms of the kind of impact on people's daily lives, even the tariffs... but it is a tax on consumption, it will make everything you buy more expensive. consumer democracy and one thing will become more expensive almost instantly is clothing, chinese clothing in america has swept the board on what we call the high street, retail chains. that
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will be hit quite quickly i think. is there a broader point in terms of the model we have developed that applies to the eu as well, this just in time process, everything has to be available just like that, nobody keeps stock. that is becoming a real issue because the politics does not match that. we may be coming, i don't want to soundin we may be coming, i don't want to sound in marxist, at the moment of synthesis. the nation state needs to find the idea of best—known nationalism which steve bannon is running around europe trying to get victor orbach and the tory party to be really good buddies —— ethno nationalism. so there has to be a moment of synthesis but hopefully does not involve shooting because there is
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really no easy solution to the process of how america, i think the working age population that is actually in the work is around 65%, you cannot have that many people who are able bodies... pa rt of are able bodies... part of the us and china row is who owns the future and who sets the standards and who sets the trading blocks up. the more this pressure is put on china the more china puts effort in to creating its own trading blocs. it can do this. it will be setting the standards and only licences of the future. that is not a win for the united states at all, that is pushing china further down the path it was aspiring to. cani down the path it was aspiring to. can i make a pointabout down the path it was aspiring to. can i make a point about the ethno nation state, it is also the democratic nation state that is at
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risk with an accountable government thatis risk with an accountable government that is being undercut by globalisation. and taxes need to be imposed by the government. one of the things that struck me, from bob woodward's brick and donald trump is apparently during the transition, and gary cohen said to him, if you are here for eight yea rs, him, if you are here for eight years, you will deal with the automation of the car and the truck and about 25% of the american population make a living driving vehicles. those are the bigger problems. there are those are the bigger problems. there a re lots of those are the bigger problems. there are lots of jobs those are the bigger problems. there are lots ofjobs for robots, fewer and fewerjobs are lots ofjobs for robots, fewer and fewer jobs for the are lots ofjobs for robots, fewer and fewerjobs for the kind of people who vote for donald trump. and robots do not pay taxes. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. hello. the best of the sunshine this
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weekend will be in northern and eastern parts of the country, further south and west there is rain for both days. this cloud pushing from the south—west brings the rain today, the rain is already in south—west england, wales and central england that continues to work eastwards. the northern extent reaches northern wales, nor the part of east anglia. lots of cloud ahead of east anglia. lots of cloud ahead of it. what frequently in western scotland. but most frequently. the winds will strengthen in the
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afternoon in south—west england. feeling cool the country. —— across the country. more rain in southern england through this evening and eventually easing away but more rain returns in the west later giving some showers across northern and western scotland, else will —— elsewhere has clearer skies. temperature is getting close to freezing, somewhat more miles further south. sunday we have another frontal system moving eastward bringing rain through the morning, pressure building to the we st morning, pressure building to the west so turning dry in the afternoon but further heavy rain in the morning in similar areas with today. that will clear eastwards, still some showers coming across with the brisk north west of the and western scotland in particular. temperatures not much higher than 11 celsius.
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again quite windy, particularly in east anglia and south—east england as the rain starts to clear we could see some gusting winds for a time in the afternoon. slowly dates —— lose their strength through the evening and some showers overnight in northern and western scotland but otherwise dry. this high pressure builds to settle things down but still that moist weather coming in ona still that moist weather coming in on a north—westerly winds so further showers on monday for northern and western scotland but elsewhere is mainly dry with lighter winds and spells of sunshine. after a chilly start temperatures rising to up to 16 celsius. this is bbc news, i'm shaun ley. the headlines at 12pm: the foreign secretary urges eu leaders to "step back from the abyss" of a no—deal brexit and find a way to make theresa may's proposals work. the shadow chancellor says his party would completely
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renationalise the railways — as labour party members gather for their annual conference. supermarket chain co—op is to scrap millions of plastic carrier bags — replacing them with an environmentally friendly version the battle for sky. rupert murdoch's 21st century fox and media giant rival comcast‘s bidding war for the broadcaster draws to a close tonight. also coming up this hour: a shake up for army training. a gender neutral fitness test — as press—ups are replaced with battlefield exercises for new recruits. she's entered this exam and she's done well and she claims her
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