us supreme court of sexual assault has given a powerful testimony in front of the senate judiciary committe. dr christine blasey ford told senators she's100% certain that it was brett kavanaugh who tried to assault her. and she said the alleged incident changed her life dramatically. appearing in front of the committee after dr ford, judge kavanaugh emphatically denied the allegation of sexual assault. he accused democratic senators of destroying his family and his good name for political reasons. senior republicans are now discussing a timetable for the next steps in the process to confirm mr kavanaugh. a first vote in the judiciary committe is expected on friday. now on bbc news, hardtalk‘s stephen sackur talks to former conservative party leader, lord howard. welcome to hardtalk.

i'm stephen sackur. britain's conservative party is about to hold its 2018 annual conference, and it promises to be a fascinating spectacle, with the party riven by deep divisions over brexit — divisions which threaten to derail theresa may's brexit strategy and perhaps her premiership as well. at stake isn't just the future of a venerable political party, but the future of britain. my guest is former conservative leader, michael lord howard. both in brussels and at home, theresa may is in deep trouble. does she have a viable way out? lord howard, welcome to hardtalk.

good to be with you. the brexit endgame has arrived and theresa may is trapped. would you agree? it is not a word i would use, no, but obviously there are difficulties, there were always were going to be difficulties, and they look more formidable than perhaps they are, but perhaps we will know in the next few months how things pan out. well, weeks in some ways rather than months, because all this is going to come very quickly now. would you say, you talk about difficulties — i think trying to be rather tactful — would you say her greater difficulties lie in our relationship with the eu 27 or with her own party? well, it is notjust her own party,

let's get one thing straight from the start. you're quite right when you say in your introduction that there are differences of view within the conservative party on brexit. i say deep divisions, i don't suppose you would call it that, would you 7 and there are deep divisions in the labour party too, as we have seen this week in liverpool, so it is not just her party, it is parliament that will decide if she is able to bring a dealforward, whether they think it is acceptable or not. the first difficulty she has to face obviously is with the european union, because at the moment, there looks to be quite a big gap between what she has proposed and what they are prepared to accept. well, let's start with that, let's start with a relationship with the eu 27 based upon her so—called chequers plan. she presented it to the eu, saying here is my plan and, in effect, it is my plan or no deal.

they, of course, in salzburg, in a rather humiliating experience for the prime minister, rejected a deal. would you say that she now — and you are a former leader of the conservative party — that she now has to negotiate her position, she has to negotiate more, she can't simply just walk away? well, i hope she does not do that, i hope that is not her mindset. i don't think that she has much room to make further concessions from the chequers plan. there are people who think that the chequers plan was a plan too far. with respect, that is the point. she will have to. otherwise, the whole thing will break down. we have heard from emmanuel macron, french president, we have heard from angela merkel, their message is quite simple, we in britain must understand, you cannot cherry pick the bits you like of the single market, we will not allow it, and if you insist that that is the basis of your plan,

the plan will fall. well, we will have to see whether that is just tough talk, and it was tough talk, but is it more than that? or whether. .. you still think the eu 27, that of course are negotiating via michel barnier, they might be bluffing. do you think that? it is possible. this is the way in which many negotiations take place. i don't know, but we will see. but if the eu maintain the position that they set out in salzburg, then i don't think that the chequers agreement or any variant of it will work, and so i think there are other things which the prime minister would look at and which might actually present a better option. well, before we abandon the chequers

plan or at least abandon the notion that there might be a rival pathway of negotiating a deal with the eu 27, let'sjust consider some of the options. some of the, if i can put it this way, more moderate, softer brexit members of the parliamentary party — your party, the conservative party — are saying that what we have to accept is that in the end, the chequers plan will not work, that modifying it to encompass some sort of membership of the single market and the customs union, what some are calling a sort of norway plus model, would be acceptable and is the best way of getting us out of the eu but safeguarding our economy. now where do you sit with that? i completely disagree with that. i think that would be a betrayal of the referendum vote, and the norway deal would not put an end to free movement of people. and, and i think it was made

absolutely clear during the referendum campaign that leaving the european union meant leaving the single market and leaving the customs union, and i think that we have to deliver on the verdict of the people. it was a clear verdict, it was a huge turnout, and it was something that has to be honoured and observed. in that case then, you are the advocate of a no deal brexit, aren't you? not necessarily, because i think there is quite a lot of merit in what has come to be called the canada plus solution, and we saw it fleshed out this week in the paper that was produced by the institute of economic affairs. in some respects, it is quite close to an offer that has already been made by the european union. president tusk said earlier this year they would very much like to see that explored. theresa may, the leader

of your party, has made it quite plain and explicit that this notion of a free—trade deal based on the canada plus model is unacceptable for one simple reason — it would require a hard border between northern ireland and the irish republic or it would require some sort of notional border down the irish sea, but either way, that is not acceptable. well, i am afraid i don't think that is the case. you are contradicting your own leader. you are suggesting that all the information that she has received from the top negotiators, from eu experts, independent analysts, is all wrong. i take a different view. the head of hmrc, hm revenue & customs, has said that in no circumstances will it be necessary to put any extra infrastructure on the border between northern ireland and the republic. you could not have a clearer

statement than that, and michel barnier has recently said he wants to de—dramatise his proposal for a border in the irish sea. well, if you can de—dramatise your proposalfor a border in the irish sea, you can de—dramatise the need for a hard border on the island of ireland. if you look at the paper which has been introduced by the institute of economic affairs, it goes in some detail into the way in which these things could be arranged, the way in which you could use technology, the way in which you could use trade agreements, the way in which you could carry out any checks that need to be carried out away from the border. magical thinking, say so many people who know much more about this than either you or i. and mrs may takes

the advice, says this. she said, "i have always said no deal is better than a bad deal", and then in respect of this sort of canada plus notion, she said "i think a bad deal would be any deal that broke up the uk", and she thinks the canada plus deal would of necessity break up, threaten to break up the united kingdom. well, i have explained to you why it wouldn't. my point is simply that — i began by referring to these deep divisions within the conservative party, this is an unbridgeable gap and mrs may has a belief which tells her that what you want to see it seems, a canada plus deal, is absolutely off the table. we began this discussion — you're asking me what alternatives the prime minister had if chequers was not accepted by the eu 27, and i answered that question. i have identified an option that she would have if there continues to be an impasse on the chequers agreement. i would prefer it over the the chequers agreement. you would prefer the canada

plus to the chequers agreement? yes, i would. so you don't like the direction of travel she is in at all? i don't much, but the question you put to me was what alternative do you think she has? well, once it becomes clear, if it becomes clear, it may not, that the chequers agreementjust will not run, this is an option that she has available to her. amber rudd, who was of course a senior minister, until she was forced out of the government, amber rudd, she says that at least in her view a0 tory mps favour something like a norway solution and absolutely will not support and would vote against any free—trade agreement on this sort of canada model. so just as the tory party is deeply split on the chequers, we believe there are 80 members of your party who would oppose it, so the tory party is absolutely

hamstrung and divided on any notional canada plan too. well, i don't necessarily agree with amber rudd. well, i know you don't agree with amber rudd but that's the point i keep coming back to, your party is in a state of total dysfunction. yeah, of course there are different views but that is not news, that is not — that is not something that should come as a surprise to anyone. there are different views, no one can say with any certainty until the point is reached, if it is ever reached, whether either of these proposals or any other proposal could get a majority in the house of commons. no one can possibly know, but let's just run through a couple of scenarios because it would be very interesting for you, as a very senior member of your party, to tell me where you sit. let's imagine that theresa may in the final hour of those

negotiations with the eu, which will come either at the summit in october or possibly in a special summit in november, let's imagine she strikes a deal based on some sort of modification of the current chequers plan, it comes back to the house of commons, it is defeated because 80 tory mps are going to vote against it, plus we pretty much know the labour party will vote against it too. so it is defeated, what must then happen? does theresa may at that point have to resign? no, of course not, of course not. i imagine — let me preface what i am about to say by expressing my hope that we are not going to conduct the whole of the rest of this interview on this hypothesis all that hypothesis. i am prepared to say we won't do that. because nobody knows what is going to happen... but at the tory party conference, these sorts of things are going to be at the top of the agenda. but if what you are now putting to me were to take place, i imagine that immediately

after that vote, the government will table a vote of confidence. i think that vote of confidence would be passed, and i think the prime minister would continue in office, as will the government. but theresa may will have lost all credibility, she will have staked her entire premiership on a plan that has just been defeated by members of her own party. she will be representing a parliamentary party which describes — some of its most senior figures described her own plan as, borisjohnson, "a suicide vest", jacob rees—mogg as "mediaeval vassalage". she cannot in those circumstances credibly continue to lead the party and adopt a party which she cannot believe in. have you looked at some of the things which members of the labour party have said about jeremy corbyn? mo one would suggest that he cannot continue to lead the labour party because of disparaging things said about him. what i am saying is that despite the fact that people are disagreeing with their proposal, even if it does not command a majority in the house of commons, and it might when the time comes, it does not mean that she has to go, that is my view.

and just one more speculative question, and then we'll move on to other things. if that scenario plays out but also there is no parliamentary majority for a canada plus plan, which you want, and it seems at the moment there would not be, and there is no parliamentary approvalfor a brexit, it seems to me there are two options, either a general election — or as the labour party has now semi— committed itself to there is the very real possibility of a second, another referendum — which do you favour? oh, i don't think either of those is going to happen in the next few months. i don't think either of those is going to happen. and let me say a word about the no—deal scenario. if there is to be no deal, i'm completely confident that we would not face anything like what is described

as a cliff edge. if there were to be no deal, i am quite convinced that in the time that remains available between whenever it becomes clear there's going to be no deal and 29 march, both sides will put in place a series of temporary arrangements to make sure that the lorries keep rolling, the planes keep flying, and everything. and interestingly... what on earth gives you that confidence? well, interestingly enough... a confidence which is not shared by the leaders of british industry, not shared by the aviation sector, not shared by financial services in the city? you're quite wrong. none of them have said that there are not going to be any such arrangements. they've all expressed their concerns, understandably, about what would happen if there were to be a cliff edge. but only this week, the 27 ambassadors of the eu members have been meeting in brussels to consider

what would happen in the event of no deal. and, of course, we don't know exactly what they're proposing, or what they're considering. but it's not going to be in anybody‘s interests for there to be anything like a cliff edge. do you think that sounds a tiny bit complacent to many people in the united kingdom today? well, i'm giving you what i think will happen. people can interpret it in any way they like. i'lljust give you one quote amongst many of people who are much, much more alarmed than you. the deputy chairman of the city of london policy and resources committee, sir mark boleat, just a couple of days ago said "the worst—case scenario now looks like the most likely scenario, and it could involve the loss of 75,000 jobs and £10 billion of tax revenue." look, we've heard all those estimates before.

let me give you one example. many people said in advance of the referendum that a brexit vote in itself would lead to the loss of thousands and thousands, tens of thousands, ofjobs in the city of london. a survey was conducted this week, a very authoritative survey, which showed the number ofjobs that have been lost in the uk finance industry since the brexit vote. do you know what that number is? 630. 630 jobs have been lost in the whole of the uk finance industry since the brexit vote. and we've had... i'm really struggling to see what relevance that has to the reality of a no deal brexit, which you appear to be ready to embrace. it's directly relevant to the quote which you've just put to me from mark boleat, in which he said 75,000 jobs would be lost. in the context of a no—deal brexit — not the runup to it, but the reality of it.

but people like him said before the referendum that that would happen if there was a no vote. and it didn't happen, and it wouldn't happen if there was no deal either. we must actually — we must step back a bit. we are the sixth—biggest economy in the world, fifth or sixth, depending on where the exchange rate is at any time. figures this week show that the city of london has absolutely consolidated its place as the number one forum for trading renminbi, the chinese currency, consolidated its place for trading the euro. it is the world's foremost financial capital. people want access to our market. people want to invest in this country. on my way to the studio this afternoon, i passed two large construction sites in which new hotels are being put up. the people who invested in those hotels have heard about brexit, they know about brexit,

they have confidence in the future of this country. and i think... well, you choose where you look and who you listen to. if you want to remain optimistic, you are of course free to do so. but you can also choose to listen to the leaders of airbus, or land rover, jaguar land rover, who are saying that their businesses could well be wrecked by a no—deal brexit. you just have to choose. i understand their concerns, and they — people like them understandably want no change. of course they want no change. they would prefer things to stay exactly as they are. but we've had a referendum. before we end, let's perhaps lift our political lens a little higher. the labour party has just had its annual conference. it has big ideas on radical economic change and reform, from worker share ownership to renationalisation — a whole host of things. and it appears, according to opinion polls, that they chime with many desires of the british public.

where are the big ideas, fresh, new, radical ideas, in the conservative party today? well, i hope we will see those ideas come forward. i hope we'll see... but you're conceding there aren't any at the moment? well, i think, to some extent, people have been focusing on brexit, which is the biggest decision facing our country for a very, very long time. i hope, at the conference next week, i hope that it won'tjust be about brexit. i hope that we will see some of these new ideas come forward. i think it's very important that they do. but, you know, a lot of the so—called new ideas that came out of the labour party's conference are really rather old ideas, and they would do serious damage to the future of our country. you sort of conceded there that the tory party has been very preoccupied with brexit for a very, very long time.

i'm mindful that theresa may walked into downing street with a very significant speech, promising a real commitment to improving the lives of those that she called the "just about managing." she said this. she said "that means fighting against the burning injustice that if you're born poor, you will die, on average, nine years earlier than others. i'll be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours." would you concede that after whatever has happened in the last couple of years, theresa may is not the leader who is going to deliver on that kind of promise for conservative party voters, it's going to have to be somebody else? no, i wouldn't concede that for a single moment. i think that that will happen. it's beginning to happen. if you look — you say there have been no new ideas, but if you look at the ideas that have been put forward to, for example, increase the number of houses that are going to be

built, something that's extremely important for the future of our country, to... and the tories have signally failed to deliver, similarly on policing, similarly on the nhs. yeah, but hang on, hang on, i... the tory party still seem stuck with an austerity record that, again, doesn't chime with where the british people's desires are today. if you ask me about the new ideas which the tory party's producing, you must give me half a moment to explain what they're doing. and not only the number of new houses being built. we've seen initiatives on that. we've also seen initiatives which help people to afford to buy those houses. we've seen an entirely new emphasis for the conservative party on building more social housing, on building houses for rent. these are new ideas. yes, i would like to see more of them. i'm confident we will see more of them, and what's more, i'm confident that the prime minister will deliver on the words which you quoted from her, which she said when she entered downing street. a final thought. when historians look back, perhaps 50 years from now, on how the conservative party has

handled the europe question since david cameron came into office in 2010, will historians look kindly on what the conservatives have done in office? i think they will. and i think the reason they will is that, when we've got over the next few months, when we've left the european union, on whatever basis, and we've been discussing a number of them, they'll see and they'll be able to have demonstrated to them the great success that brexit will be, and the great strengths which it will bring to our countries, the tremendous opportunities which exist right outside the european union. and i think, when all the fruits of that fateful referendum are available and visible to them, they'll see that, actually, the conservative party has delivered for the people of our country. michael howard, we must revisit.

but, for now, thank you for being on hardtalk. hello, good morning. it's fair to say that yesterday across england and wales felt a bit more like summer. in the sunshine in lincolnshire, we had temperatures here as high as 25 celsius. now, today, still going to be dry in most places. there'll still be some sunshine around, but it will feel much, much cooler. we've got high pressure sitting to the west of the uk. the warmth is getting pushed away into the continent, and around the top of the high pressure, we've got these cooler winds coming in behind a band of cloud, which in the morning is affecting southern counties of england. it'll clear away, could get one or two light showers coming in on a north—easterly wind into the south—east corner of england. the north—westerly will bring more cloud into the highlands and islands, and a few scattered light showers here. temperatures, though, will be significantly lower for the likes of newcastle. six degrees lower than yesterday in london. and those temperatures will fall away sharply underneath the clear skies, with the winds falling light. the northern half of the uk sees a little bit more breeze, some cloud perhaps pushing into northern ireland, more especially the north and west of scotland. not quite as chilly here,

but it will be much colder further south, 2—3 into rural parts of england and wales. sunshine, though, will boost those temperatures on saturday, lighter winds too. a bit more of a breeze across the north, more cloud coming into scotland and northern ireland, some rain in the north—west, perhaps arriving into the central belt later on in the day. but ahead of that, it may feel a bit warmer, temperatures 17 or 18 degrees. that weather front that's coming into the north—west, actually, is very weak. it's not going to amount to very much, and as it heads south, more a band of cloud with little or no rain on it at all. there's the band of cloud moving into england and wales. sunny spells following on behind that north—westerly wind will start to drop the temperatures, and there'll be a fair number of showers coming into scotland. some of those in northern scotland could be quite heavy as well. so sunday will feel a little cooler, those temperatures 12—16 typically north—south. so we've got high pressure out to the west of the uk, those showers getting pushed away into the north sea. a northerly airflow as we head into monday. that's never a good direction, and that means some sunny spells,

yes, but we will see quite a chilly feel on monday. and into the north—west of the uk, the next weather system arrives, clouding over in scotland and northern ireland, some more substantial rain into the north—west by the end of the day, but temperatures struggling to 11—14 degrees on monday. that rain will push southwards overnight, leaving us with more of a westerly airflow, so not quite so chilly by day or by night. there'll be a lot of cloud, and probably not much rain. this is the briefing. i'm victoria fritz. our top stories: republicans press for a vote on donald trump's nominee to the us supreme court, a day after hearing from the woman who accuses him of sexual assault. dr ford, with what degree of certainty do you believe brett kavanaugh assaulted you? 100%. i swear today, under oath, before the senate and the nation, before my family and god,

i am innocent of this charge. thousands of rya nair passengers face travel misery, as more than 200 flights are grounded by industrial action. france prepares the stage for the biggest team event in