this is business live from bbc news with ben thompson and sally bundock. a downgrade and a stark warning from the international monetary fund. live from london, that's our top story on tuesday 9th october. the fund warns that rising global debt and trade tensions between the us and china will make the world a poorer place and more dangerous place. we are live to their summit in bali. also in the programme... microsoft grabs an oppurtinity in south east asia, by investing in the region's biggest ride—hailing app. —— grabs an opportunity. and a mixed day is emerging on europe's markets as investors continue to worry about italian debt and stocks hit 17 month lows in asia. and we know hotels can be bad for the environment —

all that washing of towels and bedding and their big carbon footprint — but we meet one chain that trying to elimanate plastic entirely. —— that's trying to eliminate. we'll get the inside track from the boss to find out why. as as the singapore based ride—hailing firm gets in the driving seat with microsoft we want to know how much have taxi—apps changed your life? are you reliant on them to get around? let us know — just use the hashtag #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. dojoin the debate, do join the debate, we will discuss your views later. we start in bali, where officials of the world bank and the international monetary fund are gathering to present their global economic outlook. the mood is one of trepidation, as threats to the global economy that once felt remote are now becoming more real.

the imf‘s world economic outlook report predicts global growth will be less bright for this year and for next — falling to 3.7%, down 0.2% on earlier predictions. one reason for concern is that the size of global corporate debt — in both the private and public sectors — now stands at an all—time high of $182 trillion, according to the imf. that is an amount that is quite hard to comprehend! that's a jump of 60% since the 2008 financial crisis. the us federal reserve has been raising interest rates to try to stop the us economy from overheating, but it's causing difficulties elsewhere in the world by making it more costly to pay off debts held in dollars. this is particularly so in emerging markets. the effects have been felt in emerging and developing economies. both argentina and turkey saw their currencies plunge against the dollar following concerns

about their financial health. then there's the trade dispute between the us and china — which shows no signs of abating. let's speak to karishma vaswani in bali. it is interesting, there is, there are so many issues it is interesting, there is, there are so many issues for them to debate right now, but i wonder what it says about the things which i got us it says about the things which i got us all talking, the trade tensions which do not seem to be going back any time soon? absolutely right. i think you have to look up the number of times that trade, the word trade, the phrase trade, the word trade, the phrase trade tensions comes up in the world economic outlook. you just need to realise that this is one of the key concerns for the international monetary fund in its assessment of the global economy. trade comes up more than 200 times, the phrase

trade tensions about 50. funnily enough, no mention of president trump but that is what we are all talking about. the trump administration's trade war on china. that is what the imf says has really changed the game for the global economy. just six months ago a producer ‘s last world economic outlook, the assessment of the health of the global economy at that time, we were pretty smooth waters are part—time —— just six months ago it produced its last world economic lure outlook. as sally pointed out, the trade war does not seem to be going away any time soon and will have an impact on growth, a corresponding impact on the outlook for growth in the united states and china and that affects the rest of us. we look at what the us is doing now, the economy seems to be doing pretty well, interest rates are going up as a result and

they are trying to keep that grows in check, yet many would traditionally say a trade war is bad for business, bad for the us and bad for business, bad for the us and bad for china, but in america's case it does not seem to be having too much impact yet? notjust does not seem to be having too much impact yet? not just yet, that is the key thing to remember. i put that point to the chief economist of the imf, president trump says all of his policies are an attempt to make america great again. and if you look up america great again. and if you look up the hard figures, the data so far, it seems like the us economy is doing pretty well. one of the reasons for that has been the tax cuts the trump administration has put into effect, but as the chief economist of the imf told me, that might not last for long. economist of the imf told me, that might not last for longlj economist of the imf told me, that might not last for long. i think the tax policy is a more powerful effect, but we have to see how far the trade actions go. if they affect

financial markets and business confidence it could be a much bigger deal. so affecting business confidence, affecting investment, this is what i hear time affecting investment, this is what i heartime and time affecting investment, this is what i hear time and time again from companies and economists looking at a horizon in the future. but as the imf has pointed out, the global economy now looks far more cloudy than just economy now looks far more cloudy thanjust six economy now looks far more cloudy than just six months ago. a brief word if you will on emerging economies, we have talked about that a lot lately, whether they suffer in the wake of the strengthening us? and that will be on the agenda, too. very much on the agenda and on the minds of many finance ministers from developing nations like the indonesian economy, for instance. we we re indonesian economy, for instance. we were speaking with the indonesian finance minister not too long ago and she is concerned that against the backdrop of the us/ china trade war, rising us interest rates, many

emerging markets will be affected by the ongoing trade tensions and the rising interest rates in the us, so it isa rising interest rates in the us, so it is a very big theme here.|j rising interest rates in the us, so it is a very big theme here. i know you will stay right across that with us. you will stay right across that with us. thank you very much, for now. karishma vaswani making sense of the trade works in the disputes around the world. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. the australian units of citigroup and deutsche bank have been in court today — accused of criminal conduct over a $2.1 billion stock issue. the allegations concern arrangements for the sale of anz shares in 2015. the government accuses the banks of forming a criminal cartel to restrict the supply of anz shares or maintain the price of the shares. tech giant microsoft says it will invest in singapore—based ride—hailing company grab, as part of a new strategic partnership. the two firms will also collaborate on technology including artificial intelligence. microsoft and grab have not disclosed how much the deal is worth.

a malfunction at the tokyo stock exchange has forced some japanese brokerages to temporarily freeze some of their activity. the exchange says it was still investigating the cause of the problem and had not yet identified what had gone wrong. the tokyo stock exchange has apologised to investors for the tech glitch. the british film institute says the uk film and tv industry generated a record $10.3 billion in 2016, helped by government tax reliefs. it said hm revenue and customs got more than that money back, gaining $2.6 billion in tax. films with a strong uk story, place and culture — such as harry potter, paddington and kingsman — have featured prominently in uk tourism campaigns. we have mentioned tokyo having a

torrid session. first day of the week open forjapan, technical glitches got in the way. you can see the #bbcbizlive is down. hong kong is closing flat, it was high on most of the day. elsewhere in asia, quite a torrid session. the global economic outlook from the imf, where they downgraded the us, china, europe and the global forecast in general, is on the minds of investors in asia. they are really concerned about china and the us. let's look at europe. they are up just a little bit. some of the big movers in london, aviva shares are up movers in london, aviva shares are up nearly 2%. its chief executive mark wilson is going, it has been announced this morning. that is a surprise. greggs the baker better—than—expected sales, shares up better—than—expected sales, shares ‘7. better—than—expected sales, shares greg better—than—expected sales, shares up 4%. greg ‘s shares have been under pressure for many weeks but todayis under pressure for many weeks but today is a bright spark coming from greggs. and samira hussain has the details of what's ahead on wall street today.

on tuesday us president donald trump is expected to visit iowa, and there he will likely announce that the administration is lifting the summer ban on higher ethanol blends of gasoline. now, the move could reshape the retail gas market, making gasoline with 15% ethanol is a new consumer standard. the mid—term election's next month and this particular measure is really aimed at boosting farm belt republicans. also happening on tuesday, google will be holding an event in new york where it is expected to launch the third—generation pixel smartphone and chrome os tablet. other devices may also be announced. what else is happening in the markets? joining us now is sonja laud, head of equity at fidelity international. nice to see you. let's pick up on that story we spoke about already,

microsoft's investing in grab. we are seeing different patterns emerge around the world but he was dominant in which market and particularly how it is doing in asia. it is not their first engagement in a right hailing app. they have cloud systems such as azure and it is more about their softwa re azure and it is more about their software and development. there is facial recognition, a lot of development around the safety concerns, a real—life testing ground for the software. one viewer in india says write apps are easy solutions for commuters, why ignore convenience when it is just a click away. —— ride apps. for many consumers it is so convenient? yes,

iama consumers it is so convenient? yes, i am a heavy user and very much like the flexibility, it is a lot cheaper and has created quite a fewjobs. despite all the aggravation companies like uber have had with various cities fighting against them legally, they are here to stay, we wa nt legally, they are here to stay, we want them? i am sure there will be more developments, lots of concerns and safety in particular in some countries, but if we assume there will be ongoing development, i'm pretty sure they will be here to stay. italy has been dominating markets news, hanging a cloud over europe. we had the imf downgrade the eurozone in their report today?” think italy very much as to be put in context with what the imf has told us. there has been lots of focus on the budget deficit headline on what the new government has told brussels what they intend to do, the 2.4 is well beyond the acceptable limits, but to my mind it is much more important to look at the growth assumption that new government has

put into this plan. to my mind, that is where the risk is. if they cannot achieve the growth outlined in that, the whole plan fails spectacularly and the whole budget deficit will be much higher than originally anticipated. thank you for now, sonja, i know you will be talking to us sonja, i know you will be talking to us about google plus, or rather the end of it. still to come... leading the way we speak to the female boss of asia's ground—breaking plastic conscious hotel. we will find out why and, crucially, how they are doing it. stay with us. you're with business live from bbc news. the uk construction sector suffered a setback last month with output at its slowest rate in six months. victoria is at the biggest building industry gathering to find out why. she is in birmingham. good morning. good morning. the construction sector suffered a bit of a downturn. iamat sector suffered a bit of a downturn. i am at the biggest event for the industry in birmingham and looking

at some of the possible solutions. one of the issues when it comes to the construction industry is skills. do we have enough ones and how to manage it safely? this is george, a famous face of construction. what are you up to and how are things like this helping to skilled people 7 like this helping to skilled people up? i like this helping to skilled people am like this helping to skilled people up? i am having far too much fun on a super—sized digger loading up that lorry with lots of muck. it is virtual reality, someone can be trained on this before they go into the field. i have done this a few times before but this has honed my skills in the last five minutes and i think the benefits this could make to young people is fantastic. they are amazing. things like this are already being used in hs2. one of theissues already being used in hs2. one of the issues when it comes to housing, for example, we cannot build fast enough. you think you have a

solution? about it is notjust building fast, it is building better and improving design standards while at the same time inspiring young people to come into an industry that i absolutely love. but in some ways we are still building houses like the romans all victorians, dig a hole, putting concrete, put on bricks, take ages to get it wind and water tight. looking at the car industry, the rmt and technology is amazing, we do not do the same in the building industry. —— the r&d and technology. we hope to change that. the government is certainly pushing the idea of off—site construction, lots of people know it as prefabrication. are they built to last? about 100%, they are. the building standards are even better because they —— building standards are even better because they -- 100%, they are. the building standards are even better because they are built in a factory, rather than the wind and rain. it is upskilling people and improving the quality of homes. brilliant. i will

leave you to your digger, i had fun on this. i was rubbish. i dropped about a ton of soil. it has been lots of fun. lots more coming up, including a little more on robotics. good luck with the rest of the programme. your're watching business live. our top story... the imf warns that rising trade tensions and higher global debt may harm global economic growth. they have downgraded their outlook. a quick look at how the markets are faring. it is the first 46 minutes for europe, not a lot, frankly. lots of concern, we're getting to the fourth quarter, there is a lot of volatility as we assess the state of the world economy going into the fourth quarter. markets barely moved across europe so far this morning. what's your taste when it comes to travel accomodation? cheap and cheerful — or something more exclusive? well, more and more people are opting for luxury hotels. in fact, the sector was worth more than $171 billion last year. and it's expected to

grow still further. forecasts say the market will be worth $232 billion by 2025. demand is especially strong in the asia pacific region — which is the second biggest market for luxury hotels in the world. the akaryn hotel group is hoping to take full advantage of that demand. it's based in thailand, and operates a string of boutique hotels but is looking to expand. —— they are based in china. rachel horne caught up with its founder and asked her how she made the move from high finance into hospitality. well, if you ask me, it's because i didn't know any better. i thought i was going to start a retirement plan, so my previous life i was working for ge capital in finance, actually here in london. but then i thought i would like to do something else, and so i decided to go home and started a hotel in our family beach house, yeah. in thailand?

in thailand. it was really, really small, but i thought, you know, i was going to sit on the beach and have a cocktail in my hand and talk to my guests and that was going to be my retirement plan. what happened ? it was too small. how many rooms did you have? i started with ten, yeah. and then i realised really, really quickly that it wasn't enough. and so i decided i may need to expand a little. —— so ——soi —— so i decided that we needed to expand a little. so we looked everywhere and we found this lovely, beautiful beach near phuket, and so when we saw that, the idea came to me and i said, you know, i found this little piece of paradise. i didn't want to be the one that came in, built a hotel and then ruined it. so from day one we started the pure blue foundation. and i gave it a completely separate name, i didn't want it to be associated with our hotel so that other people, other hotels in the area can feel that they can join us and do something about...

..to protect the area where we make our living. why is it important for you to protect the environment? i guess because i didn't want to ruin the place that i fell in love with. but we have to make a living somehow. and i think that we can coexist, human and nature, nature. if we're a little bit smart about it, there should be a way. you're about to launch the first single use plastic free hotel in asia. why? i see all this throwaway culture that we have, especially in tourism. so when we start the new hotel in thailand, we have ceramic bottles that we can refill so that don't have to order all these little shampoo bottles. so this has always been a standard for all of our hotels, from way back when. what are the challenges? suppliers, sourcing. even though you want to get there, it doesn't mean that all the supplies can come

to you that way. so let's start on the part that we can do. so the part that we can do is the guest amenities, from shampoos and everything, it comes in a refillable ceramic bottle. so that's good. the things that you get inside the hotel room such as your comb, your toothbrush. these are traditionally made out of plastic. we've been able to source word and cornstarch, so that's great, so we solve that problem. —— source wood and cornstarch. then comes things like straws, plastic straws, we've decided not to use any. if it is expensive to try to get rid of the single use plastic in the hotel, who's going to absorb those costs? the hotel or the consumer? to be honest, the prices in thailand and the competition, because we have so many hotels, so i don't think that it's possible to pass on to consumer at all.

not in thailand, at least. it is absorbed by the hotel. you currently have six hotels in thailand, have you got any plans to expand out of the country? i would love to. we are pretty opportunistic. expanding beyond the border of thailand requires local partners and has to be the right local partner with the right... ..with a similar idea, i guess, because we're building a boutique hotel. we're building a place that has a certain something unique and special. it's not an institutional block. so we have to find the right partner and, yes, we'd love to do that. that hotel group is based in thailand, not china. a p pa re ntly thailand, not china. apparently i said china. i didn't wa nt to apparently i said china. i didn't want to correct you, but... ben says i said china.

rachel was on it, which is the main thing! sonja is back, as promised, and we have things to talk about like robots replacing people like me who make mistakes. interesting story in the guardian. not quite in this area, but what we are witnessing is an ever expanding area for robots. it is interesting, obviously here it is around planting and picking, i guess, but in general it is something that is just expanding. it is interesting it is happening in the us where the idea of manufacturing jobs was part of mr trump's agenda, slightly and contradictions that we are seeing at the greater use of robots across wide areas of industry and businesses. there must be a cost implication? it must work out cheaper to pay the upfront cost for the robots and then pay it off over the robots and then pay it off over the lifetime? yes, that is what it

comes down to, to see where the usage will expand into. there is the upfront cost, but over time your costs will drop jamar tickly. we talk about the potential skill shortage, people are saying that maybe some of the cheap migrant labour which would have gone to the uk before brexit might not happen and this could be one of the solutions, lots of robotics?” and this could be one of the solutions, lots of robotics? i am not sure whether we have the robots to pick the apples and strawberries, but those are the areas where there is the most work and research going on to see if there is application for this. we are talking about google plus, this is the part of google's business very similar to facebook, having to close it down. half a million people's details were being looked at by third parties. they knew about this in march, did not tell the customers or regulators, this is not good? this is very

interesting, particularly in the context that we have had lots of regulatory scrutiny around the issues facebook ads, now we hear google had similar difficulties. i am not sure if this was legally required or not but it does not feel good as a user of google plus. we know they have struggled with the usage of google plus and they try to come up against facebook and other social media, maybe this is related that the two in this context have decided to close it down. presumably they could face a pretty hefty fine? in general the regulatory scrutiny will not go away, which is something i think is much more important. it is the relevance and how private data is used in general, governed and regulated, this topic will be with us for quite some time. about all this tech firms are saying give us all this tech firms are saying give us all your information, we can do wonderful things but if it falls into the wrong hands it is a

mismatch between consumer expectation and what businesses want us expectation and what businesses want us to have? private consumers always know when they hand over data that they sign off their data to the company or the social media they are using, yet obviously it is always when it comes to misuse that all the outrage comes back. you say we are aware, there are many occasions when we are unaware, like the devices in our homes and they are literally sucking up information about us all the time. google has one of those, as does amazon and various others, and where that ends up, we wonder. we have not found the right balance yet, this is why the regulatory scrutiny will be here to stay. really lovely to see you, sonja, thank you. thank you for watching. we will do it all again tomorrow. goodbye. we have lots of weather going on

over the next few days. starting off with some warmth before it gets quite a potent storm arriving by friday. more injust a moment. today, heavy rain continues in the north—west, looking largely dry and brighter elsewhere. the rain across scotla nd brighter elsewhere. the rain across scotland and northern ireland has beenin scotland and northern ireland has been in this wiggling weather front, it has not move very far over the last 36 hours or so and it will continue to bring heavy rain, particularly in the north—west of northern ireland into the north and north—west of scotland. something drier to eastern scotland and across england and wales, increasing sunshine into this afternoon and it will be a little bit warmer compared to yesterday. temperature is about 18 to 20 celsius for england and wales, 16 to 18th in scotland and northern ireland. tonight, picking up northern ireland. tonight, picking upa northern ireland. tonight, picking up a southerly winds which will gradually push this rain further north and west. it will become drier

in western scotland tonight. clear spells elsewhere, temperatures getting down to about seven to 11 celsius, there could be patches of mist and fog. this southerly winds can be tracked all the way to northern parts of africa, drawing in really great warm airforthe time of africa, drawing in really great warm airfor the time of year africa, drawing in really great warm air for the time of year across the uk, temperatures above average. lots of sunshine but the southerly wind finally pushes cloud and rain away from scotland, any early mist and fog should clear away and with lots of sunshine and the warm air from the south, temperatures responding. for central areas we could be as high as the mid—20s, even further north across scotland temperatures in edinburgh about five to nine celsius above the average for the time of year. during thursday there will be showers moving forwards and another spell of rain coming from the west, largely dry weather towards eastern parts with some sunshine, it will feel quite warm, temperatures 21 or 22, fresher

further west. we have this area of low pressure moving in from the atlantic, it will spread to the west of ireland and northern ireland but those isobars are close together, heavy rain spreading south and east. this could be the third named storm of the season, we will keep you up to date, but certainly in friday's stormy conditions in the north—west, gail is quite widespread with heavy rain at times. stay tuned. —— gales will be quite widespread. hello, it's tuesday october 9th, it's 9 o'clock, i'm victoria derbyshire, welcome to the programme. people with mental health problems are waiting so long to get the help they desperately need that lives are being ruined, withjobs lost and marriages ending, experts are warning. we talk to some of those caught in this trap including one mother who waited so long to get help for her anorexic daughter — 18 months — that her other daughter started developing ptsd from the strain. we'd like to know about your experiences of the mental health system.

we hear the remarkable story of a 22—year—old woman who, last year, became the youngest person in america to receive a full face transplant. katie stubblefield spent a day and a half on the operating table! she needed the surgery after shooting herself in the face in an attempt to take her own life in 2014.