this is the business briefing. i'm sally bundock. a second warning from the imf in 2a hours, this time about "dangerous undercurrents" threatening the health of the global financial system. we are live in bali to talk to the author of the report. and survivors of the sulawesi earthquake and tsunami are returning to work as they try to put the horror of the disaster behind them. and on financial markets, flat, today, in asia, apart from hong kong, up nearly half a percent. this follows declines on tuesday, with stocks around the world hitting each week lows. —— eight week lows. as you're aware, i'm sure the

international monetary fund, the world bank are gathered in bali right now for their key summit. we'll be talking to the author of the imf‘s letters report in a moment. —— latest. in indonesia, the government has called on people who survived the sulawesi earthquake to return to work. more than 1,900 deaths have been confirmed on the island, and around 5,000 people are still unaccounted for, with many parts of the city of palu reduced to rubble. but more than a week after the disaster, there are signs of commerce once again. hywel griffith reports. slowly the rhythm of life is returning to palu. its people are trying to find their way forward. the earthquake and tsunami tore

through the city, destroying buildings and ending lives. but in its wake, the survivors need to make a living. at this man's garage, it has been busy. plenty of people need their bikes repaired. translation: many went back to their villages, and so only one or two mechanics were operating in the city. we decided the way to recover from the trauma was to get back to work. everything else will follow and people will feel safe. the first to return where the food benders. with so many homes destroyed and aid slow to arrive, people need feeding. this woman has had to salvage her pots and pans from her damaged time before she can cook again. translation: i have kept prices reasonable so that iran can afford to buy. many people say thank god that they have able to reopen the stall. they need food. the food in

the camps is mostly instant noodles, so the camps is mostly instant noodles, so they said is great that they sell this. it has and vegetables. 0fficers this. it has and vegetables. officers are reopening to me too, so the city's workers need to prepare. this barbershop is getting its first customers. translation: the government says officers that have been close should start getting back to normal like before. so students and officials are coming here to make themselves presentable to get ready to get back to normal. it will take two years to rebuild the city. the economy cannot wait for that to happen. —— sulawesi. people here in palu going back to work as a way of surviving. —— offices. a decade after the financial crisis which rocked global markets and led to recession

in many economies — the international monetary fund has released its global financial stability report taking a detailed look at some of the risks that still remain. it says a rise in global trade tensions could have serious consequences for emerging markets. the imf warns this may lead to investors pulling their funds out of riskier investments and country's with high external debt. but it's notjust emerging markets at risk — the world's biggest economies now have $167 trillion worth of non—financial sector debt, which includes industries outside of banking, like construction, for example. the figure is $54 trillion higher than a decade ago. the imf also has concerns that global stock markets — particularly in the us — appear to be overpriced. consistent gdp growth will be

required for the stock market to maintain its current pace. and there also worries that a breakdown in brexit talks between the uk and the european union could damage confidence in financial markets and create uncertainty. let's get more on this story from one of the people behind the report, tobias adrian, imf financial counsellor & director of monetary and capital markets. i believe that you are one of the authors of this report. good to have you on the business briefing. please elaborate further on the risks. your warning things will get tough. how bad will they get? —— you are warning. we are concerned that financial conditions in ads as economies continue to be easy. valuations are elevated in some

markets, such as equity markets in the us. and at the same time beverage continues to build. in the non—financial sector, it has risen tremendously since the last global financial crisis. —— imf financial counsellor & director of monetary and capital markets. underwriting standards in credit markets are deteriorating. at some point, financial conditions might tighten abruptly. —— leverage. that would lead to a reversal in the price valuations and combined with the high levels of leverage and the intermediation in the nonbanking sector, that might lead to a deleverage cycle that could have dramatic consequences. you are seeing people could find it hard to borrow. there is less money in the system, as it were, particularly in exposed markets? yes. what we have

seenin exposed markets? yes. what we have seen in emerging markets in this past year is that financial conditions have started to tighten somewhat. the moment, that tightening is very much differentiated across markets. so a number of emerging markets have seen capital outflows. 0ther number of emerging markets have seen capital outflows. other markets have seen capital inflows. associated with the flows, some markets have seen with the flows, some markets have seen the widening of spreads, while others have seen that tightening. so there is a lot of difference in asia at the moment, but on average financial conditions are somewhat tighter in emerging markets. this could lead to six months ago. you mentioned the instability because of brexit and the uncertainty of whether it is going. what is the worst case whether it is going. what is the woi’sl case scenario whether it is going. what is the worst case scenario in terms of this report in relation to brexit? be cracks it has both short and medium

term risks. —— brexit has. some of the rest are linked to contractual features, particularly in the markets. those operational risks could affect investor confidence in the short—term. in the medium term, there is the risk of fragmentation of capital markets, and that could lead to an increase in borrowing costs. if, in the us, donald trump does go ahead with a 25% tariff on goods coming in from china in january in the new year, what is next yea r‘s january in the new year, what is next year's outlook when it comes to the trade dispute between the us and china? for the moment, what we have seen china? for the moment, what we have seen is that the sectors that are particularly exposed to trade, such

as us companies that do a lot of business in china, or chinese companies that do a lot of business in the us, those have underperformed relative to the broader index. but in the us we haven't seen any colla pse in the us we haven't seen any collapse in confidence, so there is a risk that trade tensions could lead to a tightening of financial conditions in the us. in china, we have seen some tightening of financially the financial conditions. —— tightening of financial conditions. there is a general perception that the trade conflict does have numbers in fact on the economy as a whole. tobias adrian, we have delivered there. tobias adrian, there, the imf financial counsellor & director of monetary and capital markets. speaking to us there from bali. now let's brief you on some

other business stories. many of us are familiar with tesla, the electric carmaker. well, it's second biggest shareholder, baillie gifford, has now taken an interest in nio. that's a chinese electric vehicle maker which recently listed on the new york stock exchange. according to a regulatory filing, mr gifford owns an 11% stake in nio. he also has a 9% stake in tesla. nio's shares closed up 22% on the news. south africa's finance minister, nhlanhla nene, has quit, after admitting meeting members of the gupta family, who have been accused of corruption. another finance minister gone in south africa. that is your business briefing. the children's commissioner for england and longfield says she is uris are concerned about a rise in the use of segregation in

young offender institutions and secure training centres. a report from the commissioner, seen by bbc news, shows that children are also being held in isolation for longer periods — with some kept separate for three months. our home affairs correspondent danny shaw reports. what happens when young people in custody are a danger to others or themselves? increasingly they are held in rooms or cells in isolation for hours, days, orweeks. the report of segregation found it had been used in young offender institutions 73 times per month. that is up from 51 times in 2014. the average length of segregation doubled to 16 days with a total of 709 children kept in isolation in youth custody in the first six months of the year. children's commissioner and longfield who wrote the report says there is a growing consensus that this is unsuitable.

she says there is evidence that it can cause long—term harm to mental health and development. campaigners are also concerned. the psychological experience of being kept from other human beings in such a way with children who might be as young as 15 is very damning and serious, and potentially very damaging. the minister ofjustice says there are strict safeguards of segregation and says it is only used asa segregation and says it is only used as a last resort. danny shaw, bbc news. the supreme court will deliver a ruling this morning on the case of a bakery whose christian owners refused to make a cake with a slogan supporting same—sex marriage. ashers baking company, in belfast, is appealing against a high courtjudgement that it had discriminated against the customer on the grounds of his sexuality. this is the briefing from bbc news.

the latest headlines: hurricane michael's set to make landfall on america's gulf coast within hours, bringing massive storm surges and winds approaching 200 kilometres an hour. the imf has warned of "dangerous udercurrents" in the global economy and said there's a real risk of another global financial crisis. most countries are failing to address the needs of the more than a billion people worldwide affected by mental health disorders, according to a major new report. now it's time to look at the stories that are making the headlines in the media across the world. if we start with with the washington post. it looks at the us ambassador to

the united nations, nikki haley, who has resigned and will leave her post in january. the paper says ms haley leaves trump's orbit as a political force who could potentially pose a threat to the president. in the uk, the independent carries a warning from the bank of england that the need for action is now "pressing" to ward off risks to trillions of pounds of financial products from a cliff—edge brexit. the bank said "timely action" is needed from the eu to protect against disruption to derivatives, insurance contracts and the transfer of personal data. we will explain, don't worry. the telegraph leads with news that the royal college of psychiatrists is to review its opposition to the legalisation of cannabis, despite its concerns over the risks the drug poses to users' mental health. it's setting up a panel to consider decriminalisation in the wake of more countries legalising the drug. the guardian focuses on world mental health day and the report from the lancet, which says every country around the world is facing

and failing to tackle this issue, from epidemics of anxiety and depression to conditions caused by violence and trauma. and the telegraph talks about the british government asking uk schools to monitor children's happiness and mental health in an effort to tackle growing levels of anxiety among young people. you can see the theme today, can't chew? — you? with me is geraint anderson, who is an ex—city of london stockbroker and author of city boy. he is also known as a columnist. you been busy reading all of this since i last saw you. yes. nikki haley has said that she is