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up—to—date. now on bbc news it's hardtalk with stephen sackur. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. the saudi journalist jamal khashoggi disappeared after entering the saudi consulate in istanbul last week. amid a welter of speculation and lurid allegations, a cloud of suspicion now hangs over the saudi government. to put it bluntly, the record of crown prince mohammad bin salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler, suggests a ruthless determination to silence all criticism. my guests today are saudi academic madawi al—rasheed and former senior us diplomat nicholas burns. is the man known as mbs taking his kingdom down a dangerous path? madawi al—rasheed here

in london and nicholas burns from stanford university in california, welcome both of you to hardtalk. we must begin with jamal al khashoggi. he has not been seen since he walked into that saudi consulate in istanbul over one week ago. we do not know what has happened to him, but how disturbed are you by the details of this case? i am very distressed and also worried about the hundreds of saudi dissidents and activists who have taken refuge in the west from canada, the us, here in britain and in many other countries, especially in turkey. the situation has become extremely difficult for critics and peaceful protesters.

the feminist movement in saudi arabia — since november 2017 almost 1500 people were detained according to mohammad bin salman himself. but this political crime, i would call it, is extremely worrying and shocking. it is difficult to call it a crime while we still truly do not know what has happened. nick burns, you are an experienced diplomat, you served as the us ambassador. you served long years inside the us state department. just how flagrant a violation would it be, if we were to pursue the line of speculation and believe the reports from turkish sources that something very bad happened to mr khashoggi inside that consulate building? well, stephen, if the reports are true and there is a lot coming out of turkey this morning,

this would be murder. it would be murder by the government of saudi arabia against one of its citizens. mr khashoggi is also a permanent resident of the united states, of the state of virginia. he is a columnist for one of our most prominent newspapers, the washington post. so from an american perspective there is a direct interest of the united states government in trying to pressure the saudi government to tell the truth over what happened. the denials of the saudi ambassador to the us can not be believed at this point and the saudi government has not offered any convincing evidence as to what happened. and so i think that pressure from all world leaders including from the turkish president has to continue on the saudi government. is your reading of what you have seen — donald trump has tweeted about it, as is his wont, and mike pompeo has talked about it too. is it your reading of the reactions from washington that the us government is, indeed applying

the pressure that you talk about? it is. i think in a situation like this, the first reaction of the state department and the white house would be to contact the saudis. and hearing these reports, this would have been days ago now, to try and find out what happened. you would do that privately in the best interests of the relationship. now you are seeing public statements by secretary of state, mike pompeo, by vice president pence and by donald trump, all asking the saudis to conduct a thorough and transparent investigation. nothing like that has happened. 0ur vice president offered to the saudis publicly that we would have the fbi assist the saudi authorities in an investigation. the saudis have not accepted that offer. that is again suspicious — if they want to conduct an internationally acceptable investigation. madawi, there is a limit to what we can say about this case because until more evidence comes out we are, frankly, in the role of speculation. but you are a saudi as indeed mr khashoggi is. you are also a harsh critic at time of the government including

the crown prince mohammad bin salman, mbs. does it surprise you that a man like mr khashoggi, who had made a decision that he discussed on hardtalk not that long ago, to live in exile in washington, dc, does it surprise you that he felt confident enough to enter that consulate building which of course is, under international rules, saudi territory. as an activist, as an academic who has written a lot of books that offer a different narrative from the official saudi propaganda, i would never set foot in a saudi embassy, even if i wanted my passport to be renewed. since 2005, the saudis withdrew my nationality so i had no reason to go to the saudi embassy or the consulate. it is difficult to see how mr khashoggi believed he could be safe inside the saudi embassy.

mr khashoggi is not a typical dissident or opposition figure. he spent all his career working from within the corridors of power inside saudi arabia. he was very very close to prince turki al faisal, the ex—director of intelligence in saudi arabia. he was the adviser in washington when the prince was an ambassador there, and also in london. since he took residence in washington, he has never presented himself as a saudi opposition figure. he wanted to write and he claimed he could not write in saudi arabia as he was suspended from writing in several newspapers there. he suddenly started writing, in one of the most important newspapers on the hill. and he did indeed.

i would like to pick that point up with nicholas because it seems to me significant that mr khashoggi had a commentary platform in the washington post, one of the most influential newspapers in the united states. he chose to base himself in washington, dc where all the political lobbying and networking takes place. do you think it was his proximity to american power and the fear that saudis perhaps had that he had some leverage and influence or some ins and contacts with those in power in the united states that made him become such a figure of suspicion? he had been inside the saudi governance, as you mentioned, at times in the past. he obviously had turned against the saudi government, was quite critical of the saudi government and that was why he had to position himself inside the united states. the saudis are focused on their relationship with the united states, it is the most important that they have. we are not allies but we are strong security parties and the saudis care about what the us thinks.

and the washington post is even more influential now than it was in the past and the saudis obviously bristle at any criticism. it has been the hallmark of mohammad bin salman, the crown prince. the outrageous house arrest of the prime minister of lebanon by the saudi crown prince. the outrageous house arrest of saudi princes. the intemperate criticism of the canadian government, the jailing of female activists. he has shown very clearly that he does not brook any criticism inside, or in this case perhaps outside, saudi arabia. how far does this determination of the saudi government to suppress dissent go? i am thinking of particular cases, one of the leading saudi women's rights activists, loujain alhathloul, who was picked up on the streets of uae and transported in handcuffs to saudi arabia by saudi officials. we had reports of the canadian blogger whose youtube videos

were critical of saudi arabia, saying that his family members including brothers back home in saudi arabia were imprisoned. my question to you, madawi, is how determined, from your experience, are the saudis to reach dissent where ever it may be? yes, absolutely. this is a new phase. there have been saudi exiles and asylum seekers and opposition figures in london since the 1990s. but we are entering a new phase where mohammad bin salman is determined to show he can reach everybody outside the borders of saudi arabia. does that leave you personally fearful in a way that you may not have been a decade ago? yes. in the past, people who had critical opinions were tolerated in some ways as long as they did not mobilise people inside saudi arabia. if you criticise the government, you are ignored if you are outside, but as long as you do not call on people to act on this grievance, whether they are the detention

of human rights activists, lawyers, intellectuals and academics, you were left alone. of course there is always now with social media, threats. every day a lot of saudi opposition figures and even academics like myself, we receive threats on twitter that "mohammad bin salman can get you wherever you are". ok, this is social media, nobody knows where it is coming from but we do take notice of that. i would like to take a step back for a moment because it is important to remember thatjust 18 months ago the world was so excited about this man, mohammad bin salman. 32 years old, in effect put in charge of the world's most oil—rich kingdom, a key strategic player in the middle east and he came to power pledging reforms, saying he was going to be a dynamic reformer of the saudi economy. he was going to moderate the wahhabi religious control of the nation,

to change saudi arabia's religious leanings, and he was going to free up the society. free up women to drive, open up cinemas, modernise the kingdom. and he was welcomed by saudis. that is important to remember, isn't it? absolutely. also welcomed by western governments including the british government. i remember reading 18 months ago, article after article in the most respectable newspapers such as the new york times, the washington post, the guardian, the times, the bbc, saying that this is a liberal reformer. the nyt had a headline, hailing a saudi spring. nobody actually wanted to listen to other voices in this narrative. it was almost unbelievable that a person who put so many people in prison... yes, you can have a circus

in the country but if you put all the activist in prison — he promised to have moderate islam when he imprisoned so many religious scholars and clerics. if you want moderate islam you should have a debate, an open debate about where we went wrong in our islamic interpretations and what we should promote, rather than just silence everybody and put them in prison. the women's movement, the women who campaign for driving, they are now in prison, like you said — loujain alhathloul. there are women who had been campaigning since the 1990s. there was a grandmother in her 70s who is in prison at the moment. to be fair to him, he has delivered on women being able to drive in the kingdom now. a key symbolic reform. he has also opened cinemas and allowed music concerts to take place. he's talking about building fantastic new cities like the neon project which will be open to tourism, giving saudi arabia a new face to the world. this does matter, particularly

to young saudis, doesn't it? of course. if you starve the young population of the basic freedoms such as sitting in a cafe and watching a cinema, going to the theatre, and you give them that, people were actually misled, thinking that this is what it is all about, about opening society and that kind of so—called reform... so—called reform? it is real reform. it is a circus in a dictatorship. it does not mean that people are free. it does not mean that people are safe to go to the circus or what kind of theatre are you going to watch? so, basically i agree with you that there is a strong drive towards having some kind of personal freedom but the basic freedom of being able to open your mouth and actually voice an opinion, especially when certain changes are taking

place in the country, when you can not do that, i not call that reform. i give you one example about the celebrated ipo, the flotation of the aramco oil company in saudi arabia. mohammad bin salman, with his vision 2030 promise that he would do 5% of that oil company. the world thought that this was an opportunity but, of course, it did not happen. he changed his mind and said it is put on hold. there is an economist who is very clever, he was actually planning to go to the us and do a ph.d., he wrote a critical tweet saying that this is not a good idea, the ipo aramco. he has been imprisoned since november 2017. let's return, nick burns, if we may, to mbs himself. and it is important to think from washington's point of view, in the years that you were a very

senior figure in the state department, there was deep concern about the degree to which saudi arabia was exporting wahhabi religious ideology which was encouraging dangerous extremism in many other parts of the world, where saudi resources were being invested in mosques and madrasas and what have you. and mbs addressed all of this, and he said the bloomberg just a few months ago, we are trying to get rid of extremism and terrorism, without a civil war in our country, without stopping the country from growing, and with continuous progress in all elements. "and yes," he said, "with regard to human rights, if there is a small price to pay in that area, it's better than paying a very big debt to make that move." now, surely in washington there is still sympathy

with that sentiment? well, you know, the saudis have always had a great deal of support in washington, because the saudis have been in the vanguard of trying to contain iranian power. that has been a priority for the united states going back to the 19705, to the iranian revolution. the saudis more recently, under mohammad bin salman, have grown closer to israel. the saudis now enjoy with israel and kuwait, and other countries in the gulf, the best relationship in terms of intelligence that they have ever had. and so you have seen these substantial changes under mohammad bin salman. but at the same time, stephen, i think that there is growing impatience and now outright anger, in both of our political parties in washington and inside the trump administration, over what appears to be an entirely reckless, inhumane, bestial act by the saudi government, to kill one of its own critics. you couple that with the problem that the saudis have caused, and the emiratis, is by prosecuting this ill—considered, very dire war in yemen.

the united states are on the verge of a major debate, and if the saudis cannot develop a convincing narrative of what happened to mr khashoggi, i think both political parties will be in rebellion against the saudis. you will see criticism you have not seen before. you may even see an end to the american arms provisions to the saudis in yemen, which i think would be the right move. well, interesting you should say that. i was just looking this morning at the figures. in the last year, american arms exports to saudi arabia were worth some $18 billion. saudi arabia, i think, takes more arms than virtually any other country in the world from the united dates. it represents 20% of all us arms exports, and 60% of saudi arms imports. that relationship is so important to both sides that i'm sceptical as to whether your belief that the congress, for example, is now going to ask really difficult

questions of saudi arabia — is that really going to happen? well, you know, we're not going to end our relationship, the united states, with the saudi government, because there is so much riding on the containment of iran. but i do think two things may happen. one is you might see — i think you should see, if this sordid drama continues, if there are no answers from riyadh that are convincing, unprecedented criticism from the united states against the saudi authorities, numberone. and that is going to be a problem for mohammad bin salman, because as you know, there's a lot of controversy within saudi arabia about his rule, about whether or not he is actually strengthening saudi influence around the world, or weakening it. that is the first thing that could happen. second, there are many members of congress who are disturbed by the use of american weapons, by the saudi authorities in yemen,

that have been directed into civilian areas. there has been a tremendous loss of life, there have been cholera outbreaks. it's a great humanitarian crisis. and i don't know how long the trump administration is going to be able to justify the transfer of weapons to saudi arabia for that war, which has been so destabilising on the arabian peninsula. madawi al—rasheed, we have talked at some length about the number of prisoners that mbs has locked up for dissent, i think you put the figure in the thousands. included in that number, at least for a while, were some very senior members of the family and close associates of the family, some of whom were famously locked up in the ritz carlton, including one of saudi arabia's biggest businessmen, al—waleed bin talal. nicholas burns asks an interesting question aboutjust how secure mbs‘s grip on power is. what do you think? well, a secure crown prince, who had already guaranteed that he is going to be the future

king of saudi arabia, would not actually behave in the way mohammad bin salman has behaved, especially towards own cousins. especially towards his own cousins. in addition to al—waleed bin talal, there was miteb bin abdullah, an important person who was the head of the national guard in saudi arabia. he had a military base. one of the most important security officials in the country. yes, absolutely, and the national guard was in charge of protecting the royal household and the oil installations. if mohammad bin salman is secure in his position, he wouldn't really resort to these kind of erratic acts. the war in yemen, it's been going on for almost like four years. and we've seen no end to the bombing, using western military equipment, and also expertise. let's not forget, there are people from the united states and from the military in britain on the ground in saudi arabia, and we've heard that, without us and uk support, this war in yemen would not continue. but it is precisely because the saudi government

continues to frame that war in the wider context of a struggle within the region, within the middle east, between saudi arabia and its allies and the iranians, a framework which frankly gained a lot of traction in the us and western countries, that's why they have been able to continue to prosecute this war. well, unfortunately saudi arabia is seen as a shield against iran. infact, iran, yes, it has intervened in arab countries, it has militia on the ground, it has supported groups in lebanon, in iraq and syria and elsewhere. but the argument that we can tolerate a repressive regime that has actually gone out of its way to kidnap prime ministers, like the prime minister of lebanon, put him under house arrest, forced to resign, to destabilise yet another country in the east, and precipitate probably another immigration and refugee crisis, to go that far without actually the us, the main protector of the saudi monarchy,

putting certain conditions on its unequivocal, unconditional support, is unbelievable. we have to end in a moment. nicholas burns, i'm going to turn it back to you. you have talked about the strategic importance of saudi arabia. if we look at it on one level today, we see one ruler, let's call him the ruler, mbs, who is just 33 years old. he controls pretty much all the levers of power, as far as we can tell. and saudi arabia remains a vastly wealthy, oil—rich nation, which matters perhaps more than any other for the strategic balance in the middle east. it's very hard to imagine the united states wants to see or prompt instability in saudi arabia. the last thing the united states would want to see, and i think the rest of the world,

certainly the arab world, would be instability in saudi arabia. stephen, i think we are looking at an almost shakespearean drama here. you can see the promise of reform and the acts of reform by the saudi crown prince, that will take saudi arabia forward, and then you see a dark side. you see the paranoia. you see the sense of vengeance. you see this unbelievable violence inside the country, and the arrests of saudi citizens, and the exile of other saudis. and it's unclear which way this is going to turn out, which way will this young man turn. but certainly the khashoggi event, if it's true he was murdered, this is going to be a watershed moment inside saudi arabia, and for those countries around the world that have close relations with the kingdom. madawi, you have been hoping for some kind of change in saudi arabia for a long time. do you see this as a watershed moment? not under the leadership of mohammad bin salman. i have lost hope that there is scope

for reform in saudi arabia, simply because we have heard the story of reform for several decades, and the more it reforms, the more it stays the same. and, infact, we're seeing worse scenarios. madawi al—rasheed here in london, and nick burns, i thank you very much for being on hardtalk. thank you. hello there. storm callum is approaching, and it is set to bring us some pretty wet and windy weather over the next few days. on thursday, it was a breezy day, with a few showers around. this was the picture as we ended the day, taken by one of our weather watchers in reading. now our attention is turning to the west, and this is storm callum, this developing area of low pressure. as it moves in through the course of friday and lingering into saturday, it will bring particularly windy and wet weather on the cards too. the rainfall totals could be mounting up, particularly in parts

of south wales, where we've got an amber warning for that heavy rain, around a0 to perhaps 60mm of rain. could be even more over high ground, up to 100mm over the two days. so this is how friday is looking then. let's focus in on the regional detail. on friday morning, look at those wind speeds, 50 or 60mph, maybe a bit more than that over some of these exposed irish sea coasts, and heavy rain in the south—west of england, wales, through the midlands too. northern ireland will have seen the worst of the wet weather by 8am friday morning, but still very windy here, and wet and pretty windy conditions in the bulk of scotland and northern england too, with those strong gusty winds. so particularly windy in the north and west too, but wherever you are, you'll notice the strength of those winds. down towards the south—east of england and east anglia, you're more likely to stay dry for quite a good part of the day, and it's still pretty warm. in fact, temperatures once again up to around 22 or so towards the south—east. cooler further north and west, but actually mild wherever you are. but we have got strong winds and heavy rain to contend with too,

so this area of rain becomes quite slow—moving through friday evening and overnight into saturday morning, especially heavy in wales. and remember, we've got that amber warning in force for heavy rain in south wales, could be some flooding, perhaps some disruption to transport as well. as we move through the weekend then, the trailing weather front from storm callum stays put through the day on saturday. it's just slowly edging a bit further eastwards. but again, it will be parts of scotland, northern ireland, northern england, wales and the south—west of england that will see the bulk of that heavy rain. strong winds again, especially down towards the midlands and the south—east of england. with that mild air in charge, though, in the sunshine, we could see temperatures up to 2a degrees, well above average for this time of year. then, as we move into the second half of the weekend, we'll see the rain edging its way further eastwards. so perhaps a soggy start for london and the south—east. some rain and even snow over the mountains of scotland. once the rain and hill snow clears to the east, an improved day in much of the country but temperatures will be almost 10 degrees cooler on sunday than they are on saturday. into next week, then, still pretty unsettled and breezy, with some showery rain at times.

bye— bye. jonah fisher this is the briefing. i'm victoria fritz. our top stories: a trail of destruction left by one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the united states. and there is lift off of soyuz. russia suspends all manned flights to the international space station — after the crew of a soyuz rocket were forced to make an emergency landing.

the tensions between russia and ukraine continue — and the confrontation isn't confined to dry land. in business, the nightmare on wall street continues — with more steep losses for us shares — the dow and s&p wiping out all their gains of the past three months. plus, planning for the next crisis.