tv Business Briefing BBC News October 12, 2018 5:30am-5:46am BST
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this is the business briefing. i'm victoria fritz. the nightmare on wall street continues, with more steep losses for us shares. the dow and s&p wiping out all their gains of the past three months. plus, preparing for the next crisis — are the struggles of argentina and and turkey the start of something bigger? we hearfrom the number two at the international monetary fund. and here are those markets. the dow losing another 545 points, on top of the 800 plus it lost on wednesday. the nikkei continuing to post losses, but the hang seng beginning to recover a little as we head into the weekend. we start with that turmoil on global markets becasue there's been another day of steep falls for us shares. the dow jones industrial average closed down more than 500 points,
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on top of the 800 points it lost on wednesday. the dow and the s&p 500 have now wiped out all their gains since earlyjuly. some signs, though, that a bit of confidence is returning in asia. so what's spooking investors? let's give you some context. wall street had been enjoying its longest—ever bull market, almost a decade of rising share prices that began in march 2009. since then the s&p 500 index has more than quadrupled, thanks to low interest rates, a recovering economy, and — more recently — president trump's tax cuts. but investors are worried all that is coming to an end. the us federal reserve raised interest rates again last month, to between 2 and 2.25%, with more rises predicted this year and next. bond markets indicate borrowing
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costs pushing towards 3% in the next couple of years. on top of this, global trade tensions have seen forecasts for world trade and economic growth scaled back. and there are growing concerns about levels of debt. the amount owed by companies around the world is at a record high of $182 trillion — 60% higher than at the time of the financial crisis of 2008, according to the imf. that's a debt pile more than double the size of the world economy. here's kim gittleson in new york. it was a day when wall street seemingly could not make up its mind. after sharp falls on wednesday, us markets once more open to lower only to recover and then plunge again. the key question is, what is speaking investors? rising interest rates, as president donald trump claim, saying that he thought
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america's central bank had gone crazy? 0r america's central bank had gone crazy? or is it concerns about corporate profits, or what about rising bond yields? right now the a nswer rising bond yields? right now the answer seems to be a mixture of everything. the key question is whether or not this is a bit of selling before fourth—quarter earnings season selling before fourth—quarter earnings season begins, or if it is a more sustained downturn, a period of sober reality after a summer of seemingly endless optimism on wall street. endlessly optimistic, kim gittleson. eimear daly is chief economist at the foreign exchange trading firm global reach here in london. hello, good morning. hello. thank you for coming in. i want to ask you whether you think blind faith in the markets, that everything is going hunky—dory, is giving way to some of the facts on the ground, and what is coming up in the future? the really interesting thing about what is happening on the markets is that all markets and equity markets are selling off some of any asleep. —— simultaneously. you do not traditionally see that. they always
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move in opposite directions. normally you would buy bonds when you are worried about a recession. it is risk off. risk off, what do you mean by that? people think that it isa you mean by that? people think that it is a risky time so they take some of their bets off the table? they ta ke of their bets off the table? they take their stock bets off the table and they rush to buy bonds. they are seen as and they rush to buy bonds. they are seen as much safer. governments have to repay bonds. so if you are going into a recession, you buy bonds. at the same time, if you are going to be in the same time, if you are going to beina the same time, if you are going to be in a growth period, you want equities. you want to be on the side of the economy that is driving profits and revenue. what we are seeing now is that both are selling off at the exact same time. why is that happening? isn't it strange? it is really odd. it is basically the hallmark of what we saw in 2008 when central ranks unleashed so much liquidity into the system, and drove interest rates lower. —— central banks. we saw increases in both equities and bonds, and now we are seeing selloffs in both markets. do
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you think the central banks made a rod for their own backs? they have so rod for their own backs? they have so much cash going around now in companies that they have created a system they might not be able to control of interest rates. absolutely. i think this is your reversal quantitative easing. it is a warning shot to central banks, don't remove too much liquidity to fast or raise interest rates and borrowing costs in the economy, it is this is what has happened. they took extraordinary measures after 2008, and the risk is that in undoing and getting out of these kind of complicated structures, this is what could happen. so, are we at real risk, if there is another downturn, if we cannot have central banks that can rein everything in or out with interest rates? there are good questions to be asked about what central banks can do. but i think this is a bit of a market scare, a correction. we have had unbelievable growth in the american equity market. i think this is a bit
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ofa equity market. i think this is a bit of a correction. what will be really important today is that we get earnings reports from citigroup and also from jp morgan. i think if these come out strong it will instil a bit more confidence. also, the federal reserve, they are not really going to hike interest rates and sent borrowing cost is much higher. i think it is going to be a slow and gradual pace. i think this market scare will definitely add to their reasoning in doing that. really interesting. thank you for that context. let's go to the indonesia island of bali now, where the world bank and international monetary fund are holding their annual meetings. 0ur asia business correspondent karishma vaswani is there. she's been speaking to david lipton, deputy managing director at the imf, which has just had to arrange a bailout loan for argentina. like many emerging markets, including turkey, it has seen its currency slump as foreign investors pull their money out. so is this the start of a bigger global crisis? that is one of the bigger questions
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we have been asking ourselves, whether this is the beginning of a bigger crisis or whether it will be a set of em countries. what we are seeing so far is that countries with vulnerabilities, countries that are that it will eat affected by the normalisation of interest rates in the us or by the changes in energy prices are having it the most difficulties. —— particularly affected. there is a large swathe of emerging markets countries which are largely unaffected. the other big thing that came out of the report, trade tensions between the united states and china, lots of countries in this part of the world are stuck between these two mattjones. what do you tell them? trade difficulties should be resolved through dialogue, not conflict. now, for that to happen, countries that have trade practices that are either
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inappropriate or that were approved at some years ago when asia was less important as an economic power in the world, those need to be addressed. so, we know that there are trade practices that have led to problems, that have led to dislocations in the united states. trade pact is as that may not have been problematic when asia was a smaller eicon me. —— practices. —— economy. that needs to be on the table, there needs to be a discussion about that. some positive news perhaps on those trade tensions between the us and china. bloomberg is reporting that the us treasury dept will not accuse china of currency manipulation when it pulishes its official report next week. there's also talk that president trump and president xi could be meeting for a summit next month. let's get more from maura fogarty, who runs our asia business team. maura, this is a bit of a breakthrough, perhaps? are you
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cautiously opt mystic about some of this news? —— optimistic. cautiously opt mystic about some of this news? -- optimistic. on the one hand we are cautiously optimistic because if you look at the trade tensions between these countries they have gone on much longer than anybody anticipated. so the report out in bloomberg and a few other media outlets is saying that the us, which produces a currency manipulation report twice a year, the treasury department does this, and treasury officials are recommending to not label china as a currency manipulator. something that would obviously make the chinese very happy. they have, however, expressed concern about the depreciation of the chinese currency, which has lost about 9% of its value in the last six months. that is a bit of good news, when you think about how that could maybe ratchet down tensions they touch. 0n top of that, the news that the us white house is working towards trying to set up a meeting between president trump and president she at 620 president trump and president she at g20 summit in bottas errors in argentina at the end of november. ——
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president xi. —— the one silos. the export numbers today were actually stronger than expected and liberty thought that would occur in the month of september. that could potentially throw a wrench in the works when it comes to thinking about trying to eu ‘s tensions between the two. really interesting, thank you very much, maura. billionaire sir richard branson says he's suspending investment talks with saudi arabia, following the disappearance of journalist jamal khashoggi. saudi arabia's public investment fund has been in talks with branson's virgin group over a planned $1 billion investment in its space ventures. plenty more business stories on the website if you want to take a look. i will be back with more in a moment. the managing director of a controversial medical waste
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disposal company has defended its conduct, after the environment agency began enforcement proceedings and a criminal investigation. in an exclusive bbc interview, garry pettrigrew of healthcare enviornmental services said his company had been vilified. the environment agency said it wasn't true there was insufficient capacity and the rest of the sector was performing well. hugh pym reports. following the news that there was a backlog of medical waste at disposal sites, 15 nhs hospital trusts in england terminated their contracts with healthcare environmental services. the regulator, the environment agency, had said the company was in breach of permits and enforcement action was under way. but now, in an exclusive bbc
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interview, the managing director, garry pettigrew, has claimed he did have a plan to reduce the backlog and his company was treated unfairly. i feel that this company has been vilified severely for providing an excellent service. we have been a success story up until last week, and all of a sudden now everybody sees this as being our story. we feel it is a horror story, but purely because, in reality, we have told the truth and in reality at the moment, we do not feel that the news is getting out of air in the news is getting out of air in the way that we would like to. if people want to see the evidence we have, i can give that to anyone, and it is there in black and white. he went on to argue that the access waste had accumulated because of a lack of incineration facilities, and he had repeatedly warned the environment agency about that. he said body parts was a very small proportion of the ways the company handled, and it was all dealt with promptly. —— waste. the environment agency said it wasn't true there was
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insufficient incinerator capacity and the rest of the sector was performing well. this is the briefing from bbc news. the latest headlines: a trail of destruction left by one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the united states. russia suspends all manned flights to the international space station after the crew of a soyuz rocket were forced to make an emergency landing. the nightmare on wall street continues, with more steep losses for us shares, the dow closing down more than 500 points. now it is time to look at the stories that are making the headlines in the media across the world. we begin with the ft, which says global stock markets are heading for their worst week in six months, as investors spooked by rising interest rates sold equities worldwide. us president donald trump blamed an out—of—control us federal reserve for the downturn.
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in the times, meanwhile, mr trump has warned china there was a lot more to do to hurt beijing, after it emerged that us authorities had charged a chinese intelligence officer with stealing technology secrets. the new york times looks at the disappearance of saudi journalist jamal khashoggi. the paper says the possible murder of mr khashoggi in turkey is a looming diplomatic crisis, especially for mr trump's son—in—law, jared kushner, who has cultivated a close relationship with saudi arabia's crown prince, mohammad bin salman. 0n the front of the guardian, there are plans to turn a uk motorway in kent into a lorry park to deal with the possible impact of a no—deal brexit. transport companies are warning of the potential for chaos after brexit without a deal, to preserve frictionless trade
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with the eu. and finally, here is a picture of the happy couple on the front of the telegraph. the queen's grand—daughter princess eugenie is due to marry jack brooksbank later today at st george's chapel in windsor. so let's begin. with me is alpesh patel, who is ceo at praefinium partners. good news story, we don't get many of those offered. well, a tale of two halves, financial recovery in asian trade of the stock markets in the last
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