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tv   BBC Business Live  BBC News  October 19, 2018 8:30am-9:01am BST

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this is business live from bbc news, with maryam moshiri and victoria fritz. growth in china slows to the lowest pace since the financial crisis a decade ago, as it battles a trade war with america. live from london, that's our top story on friday 19th october. it's notjust slowing growth — china also faces rising economic challenges, including sky—high debt levels. also in the programme, goldman sachs joins us treasury secretary steve mnuchin in pulling out of saudi's so—called davos in the desert after the disappearance of journalist jamal khashoggi. the european markets have opened in positive territory. we'll be looking at what has been a busy week in the world of tech with our very own rory cellan—jones,
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including the emergence of tiny mobile phones. also in the programme, the actress keira knightley says she has banned her three—year—old daughter from watching some disney films because of their portrayal of women. we want to know, do you think the movie business is outdated, or is it changing with the times? let us know — just use #bbcbizlive. hello and welcome to business live. we start in china, where in the last few hours official figures have confirmed the weakest economic growth since the end of the financial crisis almost a decade ago. china's gdp growth slowed to 6.5% in the three months to september, weaker than expected and a level not seen since early 2009. these are the first growth figures since a big escalation in america's trade war with china. there are now us import taxes on $250 billion worth of chinese goods. it's not the only concern, though.
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the credit agency standard and poor‘s has warned of a debt iceberg, up to $5.8 trillion of borrowing by chinese local governments, which it says is a titanic credit risk. this on top of worries over high corporate debt levels. then there is the currency. the trade war has hit the value of the yuan, while rising us interest rates have boosted the dollar. that's pushed the yuan close to seven to the us dollar — a level not seen since the financial crisis. 0n the plus side, it's making chinese goods cheaper, helping to offset the effect of the trade tariffs. but if it falls further, it could see investors start to move their money out of the country. robin brant is following the story in shanghai, these figures are in line with chinese government forcasts again. yes, shock horror! the gdp figures
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for the last three months come in bang on in terms of what this government is forecasting for this year. now, we always talk about the caveat, because if you look at the last six years, the level of difference between what is forecast and what turned out from these official statistics is minimal, so it is highly suspicious. there are many who believe the real health of the chinese economy is nowhere near 6.5%. still, a respectable growth rate, but nonetheless this is a barometer that we have, a barometer that we have to deal with. there is no doubt that the chinese economy continues to grow at a rate that will be looked on with envy in places like london, but the rate of growth is slowing, and i think we look to some of the figures on bank assets today, very clear that the credit squeeze we have seen over the last year, the chinese government really trying to get to grips with the consequences of a massive credit boom that helped finance the massive infrastructure spend over the last
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decade or so, we have seen a real attempt to deal with shadow banking, wealth management products, what is known as local government finance vehicles, a way for local government in this country to try and finance big spending off the books. all that has been under the microscope, focused on by chinese authorities in the last year, and i think that is pa rt the last year, and i think that is part of the reason why we are seeing a slowing in the rate of growth today. but exports are still healthy, so that seems to suggest that the trade war, and we are in the trade war at the moment, is yet to bite, but a member that gdp is a lagging indicator. 0k, robin, thank you for that view from china. dr linda yueh is an economist and author of the great economists, and shejoins me now. good morning, thank you forjoining us. good morning, thank you forjoining us. the economy in china does not appear to be us. the economy in china does not appearto be in us. the economy in china does not appear to be in desperate states by international measures, shall we say, but confidence is at least shaken. i think the figure is slowing to 6.5% will not be the last
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we see slowing, and that is what has got a reaction against that, but in the overall growth of 6.5% for the year is interestingly supported by exports, so it is domestic demand that has been weak, the opposite of what people thought, oh, a trade war causing slowdown, because most of the tariffs did not hit until the end of september, and these are third—quarterfigures. so end of september, and these are third—quarter figures. so that is what i mean when i say it is not the current figures that are worrying, it is the ones that are coming. so in other words, if we have an escalation of tariffs by january, which is possible, you will begin to see some of that hit chinese exports. 0n the domestic demand side, why is it weaker than expected? retail sales are still growing at over 9% per year, so the question is around what is happening with disposable incomes, and our chinese consumers consuming a bit too much out of that? that is why the domestic demand picture is really the one to watch, and the
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chinese government has a dilemma there too. they want to rein back debt and there too. they want to rein back debtand rain there too. they want to rein back debt and rain back inefficient investment, but on the other hand they need to boost a more productive investments. 0n the one hand, they are tightening credit, but on the other, they are cutting the reserve, so other, they are cutting the reserve, so that means banks have to hold a less money back, hoping that they lend more. this kind of contradictory policy, that is what has got some people a little bit concerned. they have cut at four times so far this year — what do you think will happen? we have seen in the last few hours that regulators have downplayed the recent weakness in liquidity. do you think they can keep such tight reins on this country, and how long for?” keep such tight reins on this country, and how long for? i think the big challenge is going to be, can you improve the mix of lending? so in other words, the reserve requirements in china are very high, double figures. you could get some scope in terms of cutting that, but the question isn't getting credit into the economy, it is into more
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productive uses, so therefore even if you have a state—owned banking system that misdirect credits towards developers or state—owned enterprises, that is not going to be a sustainable model, that leads to non—performing modes. you need to get money to entrepreneurs, so you need more competition in the banking system, hsbc looks like it will be the first one to list in china, there might be a greater opening, and that may be the only way really to improve the financial system, but it won't happen quickly. that might bea it won't happen quickly. that might be a positive side—effect of the trade war, i say this cautiously, because the only way for them to resolve the trade tensions with america is for america to be able to sell more into china, and it is consistent with china wanting to open its services sector more for these reasons, and because that is how you become an advanced economy, you open up, you learn and partner with countries that have done this for longer. so americans are more
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services, that is a better way to reduce deficits. really interesting, thank you very much, dr linda yueh there. let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news. amazon says it's creating more than 1,000 "highly skilled" jobs in the uk — in manchester, edinburgh and cambridge — working on software, machine learning and cloud computing. amazon's uk country manager described the new roles as "silicon valleyjobs in britain". italy is heading for a potentially damaging confrontation with the european union over its budget. the populist coalition government is planning to honour election pledges with a big boost to public spending, with measures like earlier retirement and a guaranteed income for poorer italians. but brussels says it may veto the budget because of concern about italy's soaring debt levels. credit card giant american express says it made profits of $1.65 billion in the three months to the end of september, up from $1.36 billion the same time last year, and better than wall street was expecting. rising wages and a strong economy have fueled us consumer spending.
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amex says spending on cards was up more than 10% in the us and 5% in overseas markets. a quick look at the markets. we had those slower chinese growth figures, but also statements of chinese government support for the market. those statements helped the markets claw back losses. a third straight week of negativity for the nikkei — which tracked losses on wall street. in terms of european stocks, they have opened, looking pretty good at the moment, managing to keep themselves in positive territory. the white house is raising the pressure on saudi arabia over the disappearance of journalist jamal khashoggi. us treasury secretary steve mnuchin has announced he won't be attending saudi's future investment initiative, the high—profile conference being described as davos in the desert. he joins a growing list of business leaders now boycotting the event, as samira hussain reports. this business summit in saudi arabia gives attendees an opportunity to secure lucrative contracts
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in the country, so the financial benefit to attending could be quite significant, but in the end there was just too much pressure on people to pull out, including us trade secretary steve mnuchin. ministers from france and the uk already had, and big names in america's business community, like jamie dimon ofjpmorgan chase, and bill ford of ford motor company, already had said that they would not be attending. no—one will be going in mr mnuchin's place, and this has certainly increased the pressure on any american company that is still planning to attend. the fox business network has cancelled its sponsorship and will no longer be covering the conference. last year, the us and saudi arabia traded more than $115 billion worth of goods and services. joining us is james bevan, chief investment officer at ccla investment management. let's talk about the flip side of
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what is going on in china, some of the concerns that we have around economic growth slowing, what is happening with the currency. it has an impactfor happening with the currency. it has an impact for everyone around the world, doesn't it? yes, slower growth means chinese companies will be more interested in making profits as opposed to building bigger businesses. profits coming out of chinese profits means higher prices, and that means more export inflation. in a nutshell! you always explain the story so well and so concisely, talk to me about italy, because 48 hours now for the italians to get back to brussels to prove to them that their budget plan, their spending plan, prove to them that their budget plan, theirspending plan, is not breaking eu rules, and the ft had this in their website, they called it high noon for italy and brussels. talk us through why exactly the italian budget plan is so
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controversial. it is a huge problem for italy, because it has an economy that has hardly grown at all in 20 yea rs, that has hardly grown at all in 20 years, and indeed real wages have gone backwards, so people's capacity to earn money, to pay out, has declined over the last eight years. not surprisingly, people don't like that, and they voted in a government on an agenda of spending more money, and this will cause ructions for europe, because it has said, if you wa nt to europe, because it has said, if you want to be part of the party, you can't spend too much money, but it is saying, to get our economy going, we need to spend money, this is our plan. do you agree? i think they have to spend more money in the near—term, there are structural problems that italy has to address, do they have the will to do that? i don't know. we will soon find out! we have got the papers coming up in about ten minutes' time with you. we'll be looking at what has been a busy week in the world of tech with our very own rory cellan—jones, including the emergence of tiny mobile phones.
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you're with business live from bbc news. if face—to—face abuse isn't tolerated in our society, is it right that it should be tolerated online? that's the question a group of companies have been forced to ask the public after they received shocking abuse online — in response to their adverts. one of them, nationwide, has now released research which highlights the scale of trolling. joining us now is their chief marketing officer, sara bennison. one in six people receive online abuse, while one in 20 have sent hateful comments. the kind of abuse we are talking about is really very concentrated around racist, homophobic and sexist abuse, so we really noticed this pattern when we started running a whole variety of adds showing people from different backgrounds, and basically when people were not white, straight or were young women,
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thatis white, straight or were young women, that is when we saw the offensive abuse start. just reading some of the figures, one in six people received online abuse, one in 20 have seen hateful comments, could this good companies off inclusivity when it comes to putting adverts together? it is very difficult when you read these things, because they are distressing and very vile, but it is important to remember that it isa it is important to remember that it is a tiny minority of people, and actually it is really important to stand up for what they believe is right and not be put off by the majority. so you believe sticking to what we are doing at the moment is the answer, as opposed to answering the answer, as opposed to answering the trolls? i think that is where we have a different point of view starting to emerge, the received wisdom was very much a quiet, delete the offensive posts, move on, don't say anything, but the danger of that is effectively you become complicit in saying that this kind of abusive
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language is somehow 0k. in saying that this kind of abusive language is somehow ok. if it is ok to say it against people in ads, it is ok to say it against children or, as we saw yesterday, against female football players. 0k, as we saw yesterday, against female football players. ok, so good to talk you, thank you very much indeed. thank you. breaking news - pendragon shares are down about 20% at the moment, a franchise car dealership has issued a profit warning to investors today over fears that the newly introduced global engine testing regulations that we have as a result of the eu will cause future market instability, so lots on story on the bbc business live website if you wa nt to bbc business live website if you want to find out more, head over to the website. your're watching business live, our top story: china's growth has slowed to 6.5% in
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the three months to september, wea ker the three months to september, weaker than expected, a level not seen since early 2009. china is facing a number of challenges, very high debt levels, escalating trade war with the us, so lots of people concerned about the numbers coming through and whether or not there will be a weakening further of economic growth in the future when those trade tensions and trade ta riffs those trade tensions and trade tariffs start to really bite. time for a look back at what's been happening in the world of tech, and in a move that bucks the recent trend for bigger smartphones and tablets, this week saw the launch of tiny phones, or so—called "companion phones". how big are they? pretty small by the looks of things! there have been big challenges for tech firms — like softbank — who have been trying to decide whether they should join other businesses in boycotting saudi arabia's desert davos. our technology correspondent rory cellan—jones joins us now. we love having rory arnold, he makes me laugh! let's start with saudi
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arabia, the davos in the desert, softbank, one of the big technology firms which has been having an existential crisis over whether it should send its boss. well, softbank isa should send its boss. well, softbank is a fascinating business, it is a huge investment firm that has got money in uber, in the shared office space company, it owns the whole of the british chip—maker arm, and its problem is that a huge amount of the fund that it has raised, the division fund, comes from saudi arabia, a $100 billion fund, and it has been talking about raising another huge fund, they were optimistic about that until this last week. now we have got this crisis, should it go or should it not? and i am just hearing that it has decided that the boss of softbank will go to saudi arabia, but i am also hearing that one of its companies is following the
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others, arm, the uk chip company, is 110w others, arm, the uk chip company, is now not going to go. so great agonising within that business, which is hugely dependent on saudi money. i wonder, rory, which is hugely dependent on saudi money. iwonder, rory, whether people are going to this conference 01’ people are going to this conference or not, what difference it makes, talking about softbank or steve mnuchin, their counterparts from france or britain, it is one thing to not go to a conference, it is another to ignore the lure of the petrochemical dollar. that is the dilemma, where does ethics come in your corporate agenda? and also, frankly, bad pr. a lot of companies, the majority, i think, frankly, bad pr. a lot of companies, the majority, ithink, have frankly, bad pr. a lot of companies, the majority, i think, have decided that it the majority, i think, have decided thatitis the majority, i think, have decided that it is a bad look to go. softbank, it seems, has decided it cannot offend its saudi paymasters. let's talk about mobile phones, because you know, i realise those are getting bigger and bigger, because you know, i realise those are getting biggerand bigger, but what you're saying is that smaller
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and smaller is the way forward. well, no, this is a brief diversion this week, so look at this — this is the latest google phone, pixel 3, huge thing, and there has been a trend for bigger and bigger phones, huawei just launched an absolute stonker, about seven inches! let's not go there! separately, we two insta nces not go there! separately, we two instances of tiny companion phones... that is a credit card! it may look like a card, but it is actually a phone, seriously, one has been launched by ntt docomo in japan, supposedly the thinnest phone in the world, it will go inside your wallet. why do we need these things?! another one has been launched by the old palm brand, and the thinking is that you need a rest from your main phone, and this will
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bea from your main phone, and this will be a companion to your main, you will still have one of the big phones, but you can leave it at home, chill out a bit with your tiny phone. i don't buy it, you either have your phone or you don't, you don't want another one. let's briefly talk about uber, we have been talking about a potential ipo next year, uber listing itself on the stock market. is it going to happen? will it be the valuation of 120 billion? there has been a whole flurry of stories around this, which is an obvious precursor, jockeying for position among investment banks to get in there, and it has leaked out that they want to value it at $120 billion, extraordinary amount, 50 billion above its current evaluation. the best single story i have seen is in the wall street journal that a morgan stanley technology investment banker is also an uber driver technology investment banker is also an uberdriver in technology investment banker is also an uber driver in his spare time. why? he wants to show willing, he once morgan stanley to win this ipo
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business, so you climb into the back of his cab... i would like to climb into his cab! you're sitting there, i don't do this all the time, i am a morgan stanley investment banker! rory, thank you so much indeed for joining us, have a lovely weekend. ina joining us, have a lovely weekend. in a moment, we will be looking to the business pages, but this is how to get in touch. stay up to date with all the business news as it happens on the bbc‘s business live page. there is insight and analysis from our editors right around the globe, and we wa nt editors right around the globe, and we want to hear from you too, get involved on the business live web page at bbc.com/business. 0n involved on the business live web page at bbc.com/business. on twitter and on facebook as well, business live, on tv and online, what you
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need to know, when you need to know. let's look at the paper stories that the business headlines have been talking about, james bevan, let's start talking about this story in the japan times, it is also, as if by magic... i know what is going on in there!japan by magic... i know what is going on in there! japan struggling with plastic waste, china has stopped imports of plastic waste from japan, you would think it is good news, but it is getting paid for that. japan has had very limited development of recycling, it has done a certain amount of incineration and said, do you know what, guys, just take it away — this is great news in terms of having to make japan face up to the challenge. but is bad enough, to face up to the challenge? we need, yes, an international response...m means taking care of the problem, not just means taking care of the problem, notjust hoping means taking care of the problem, not just hoping that means taking care of the problem, notjust hoping that the problem goes away. who is to say that any country will? no—one seems to have a
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solution to any of this, we are making plastic at a faster rates today than yesterday. and we don't necessarily understand whether the alternatives, in environmental terms, will be any less damaging. you will recall that the ship to plastics occurred because people said washing glass was difficult, and the water used to watch glass is itself a biohazard. that is why we wa nt to itself a biohazard. that is why we want to go to cheap plastics. i think the pricing mechanism we have adopted in this country is smart, but it should be much higher, people needs to be incentivised through the market mechanism. let's talk about kiera knightley, not often we talk about the business programmes... we are talking more about cinderella! 0nce are talking more about cinderella! once upon are talking more about cinderella! 0nce upona are talking more about cinderella! once upon a time, there was an actress named kiera knightley, who had a daughter... the two ugly sisters! charming! i am not going to be asked to come again! we have got a frog over here! let's not going to
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the animal sounds today! let's talk about kiera, she says she doesn't wa nt about kiera, she says she doesn't want a daughter to watch certain disney films, she is not happy with their portrayal of women, she gives their portrayal of women, she gives the example of cinderella. one of my favourites! sleeping beauty, the little mermaid? favourites! sleeping beauty, the little mermaid ? do favourites! sleeping beauty, the little mermaid? do you agree with her? i do not. why? ithink little mermaid? do you agree with her? i do not. why? i think people are able to appraisal stories for what they are worth, i don't see anything fundamentally denigrating about cinderella, the role she plays, the interaction with people. it isa plays, the interaction with people. it is a great story, and it has an happy ending, we need happy endings in life. we certainly do! you have a daughter, don't you? in life. we certainly do! you have a daughter, don't you ?|j in life. we certainly do! you have a daughter, don't you? i do. she loves cinderella! no, she loves cinderella, she got a first in her first year of economics at bat, won a national pony club championship,
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she plays kharkiv. she hasn't been affected by what she watches! david says, really? 0con does, beauty and the these, all strong female characters. to be fair, she does say these are the ones in question, it is not all disney. is it the job of the movie business to empower women? women empower women, but facility —— society needs to facilitate that, we are lucky to take this for granted in western economies, many economy still do not have women's rights at all. lovely to have you on, secret feminist! thank you very much. plenty more business news over on the news channel, have a lovely weekend. it has been another chilly start to
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the uk, but for many parts a fine start, particularly england and wales, further north across scotland and northern ireland, more clout, outbreaks of rain affecting the far north and west. you can see that on the satellite imagery through this morning, cloud straddled across scotla nd morning, cloud straddled across scotland and through northern ireland, just edging its way further south and eastward, making the sunshine more hazy across north—west england, eventually north wales as well, the best of the sunshine in central and southern areas. it will remain sunny right throughout the day today, feeling quite pleasant light winds. further north, the rain clears from the north - west of clears from the north and west of scotland, cloud clearing away, brighter skies across the north of scotland, maximum temperatures in northern areas, about 13—15. through tonight, more cloud spreading into
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northern ireland, into scotland, clear skies for many of us, another chilly night, temperatures getting down to around about 4—8 celsius, but into saturday morning quite a bit of fog developing, that could be quite extensive first thing in the morning, so if you are travelling, bear that in morning, so if you are travelling, bearthat in mind, morning, so if you are travelling, bear that in mind, so for south—eastern wales, the midlands, that will be fairly stubborn to clear away. it may lift up into low cloud during the afternoon. elsewhere, away from that, some sunshine throughout saturday, a fine day for many, cloud increasing across scotland and northern ireland, rain pushing into the west of scotland. top temperature on saturday, about 15—18 degrees. high pressure the dominant feature of the weather for england and wales, but a weather for england and wales, but a weather front moving into the north—west, that will keep things fairly cloudy on sunday across the north and west, rain quite heavy at times in northern and western areas of scotland, into northern ireland, a few showers pushing into
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north—west england and wales, but further south and east, near that area of high pressure, dry again, sunshine on sunday, temperatures getting up to about 40—17d. into next week, high pressure, you can see at here, still firmly in charge of our weather, some weather fronts brushing the north, around scotland, northern ireland, more cloud over the next few days, perhaps spots of rain here, but generally speaking the outlook into the next readers dry with some sunny spells. that is it from me, have a good weekend, bye— bye. hello it's friday, it's nine o'clock, i'm joanna gosling, welcome to the programme should you be allowed to legally decide what gender you are without having to pass any tests or consult a doctor? for the past four months the government has been gathering public opinion on a shake up of the law governing how people change their gender. as that consultation period comes to an end we ask a group of transgender people what they kind of changes they'd like to see. parents whose children were killed fighting the islamic state terror group travel to syria to see
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for themselves where their loved ones died — and how they've been honoured by those they fought alongside. iam proud. i am proud. i am iam proud. iam proud of i am proud. i am proud of my daughter, very much. i also feel a lot of
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