balance it's monday, three p:m., we are live in westminster on budget day. the prime ministers as austerity is coming to an end. will the chancellor tell us today what that really means? and will it mean much if he is still trying to balance the books? it's a big day for the country today. we have put the 18. . today, so we book the bbc‘s a team. laura kuenssberg, simon jack today, so we book the bbc‘s a team. laura kuenssberg, simonjack and khamal haar meed. the chancellor emerged just a short while ago en route to the house of commons. he is due op his feet at 3.30. we will be there live and uninterrupted. there

he is on the steps of number 11 with his team and the famous budget box, what is in it this year? what we do know there will be more money for the nhs. that has been announced. we learned some of that money, about 2 billion is going to go to mental health provision, to improve it. what we don't know is how is it all going to be paid for. we will find out today. so laura, will this budget be regarded as something of a political watershed? there regarded as something of a political watershed ? there may regarded as something of a political watershed? there may not be a lot in it. we are told not to expect too much, but will it mark the time when debate was not any longer about how deep austerity should be, but how much more public spending there should be. i think that is certainly what some people at the top level of government want it to be, it was described to me today, as an effort to show that tories know that period

is over but they have other things they wanted to do, in tories 2.0. i think the chancellor will be trying at least to put an offer on the table that shows a path to a brighterfuture, to table that shows a path to a brighter future, to use that terrible political cliche. sunny uplands? we might hear about some of those and philip hammond to keep that promise that was made by theresa may at the tory party conference. austerity is sow she said. that is difficult for philip hammond for several reason, first, he doesn't like spending money, he isa he doesn't like spending money, he is a hawk, secondly. fiscal hawk? yes, the government doesn't have a majority to o doing anything controversial in parliament is tough, and the other reason, for it being difficult is notjust the uncertainty of brexit, but in that finest of political traditions his next door neighbour neighbour in number ten has nicked the best announcement. saying the nhs is

going to get 20 billion extra a year and at the tory conference saying fuel duty would be frozen which is traditionally the chancellor's one of his mini bunnies he pulled out of the hat. 0 so did the prime minister steal his spending review? we won't see long—term decisions, 2a is what we need to bear in mind, next year will be a spending review, the jargon for being the day when the government proclaims the big shape of spending for years and years to come. the chancellor will today, as a lwa ys come. the chancellor will today, as always happens and we will see the numbers set out, this is the path, which he expects spending to follow, but in the words of one government insider to me today was this is the phoney war. so politically we will be looking for interesting clues about who won here and there, diddester mcvey win more money for universal credit, more money for the ministry of defence. i think they

will have done. the big choice is and the big moments will be next year, will it be the same chancellor? the same prime minister? those are different questions. when you sit back, a bit, this recovery has been a weak recovery. it is sustained but weak, that has been reflected in wage, but if you look at overall environment, the economic environment, it is not that bad. there is growth, inflation is low, the deficit‘s coming down, wages are beginning to rise if real terms at last, he has got room for manoeuvre if he wants it. he has, the big thing will be what does he use that i’ooiti thing will be what does he use that room for manoeuvre for, so as you say the deficit is better, it is better than expected the government has gotter at collecting tax. it has had a big push and also, local government in particular, is pretty poor at spending money, even though it has less, it is poor at spending what it has, and that has meant that

the borrowing has come down, i think there might be a big moment though today, which will be that setting of the overall envelope of the next five years, just as laura says we won't know who has won that battle, where it will be allocated but what the chancellor will seek to do with that big if of brexit, is set an envelope which shows that he is being much more generous than the la st being much more generous than the last spending review which was put together give george osborne in 2015. so that will show public spending rising but it won't tell us where. if it is as a proportion of national income. that will be the percentage we will be looking for. business time has come to expect not very much from this government. what is it hoping for today? business is pretty edgy, this is a brexit budget, a holding... it hangs over everything and businesses have, things like investment in machinery

and training has been pretty weak. the chancellor would like businesses to put more money into it. they are understandably are the september because they don't know what the picture will be like next year. that is the general thing. the jam tomorrow we will hear about, how things are going to be better once the deal is done, once brexit is sorted out. the jam will be bidses who have pent up investment, will suddenly feel the urge to spend. can he crowd some of that in ahead of time by offering incentives to invest more tax free, stuff like that, so that is the general picture, how do you keep business confident? specifically, it has been an annus horribilis for the high street, and you have seen, you know, people like maplin, toys r us. debenham, house of fraser all closing stores, there has been a lot of talk about not a level playing field. a lot of it is to do with our behaviour, spending more online, how can you get at that? you can make the existing or new players pay more

or the existing players pay less, we know there will be a discount on business rate for some small business, not many. one of the big questions is he going to slap a tax on the likes of amazon. i suspect he will talk about it but going it alone... that would be the third time he has announced it without doing it. you need international cooperation. it wouldn't be budget day if we didn't hear things we have already heard five times before! as well as my top team here in the studio, i have got some other people helping o out today. i need all the helping o out today. i need all the help i can get. elizabeth is in broadcasting house. vicki young is outside the studio in the heart of westminster on college green and pauljohnson, is in his contract it has to be here, from the institute of fiscal study, part of the budget constitution, he is in the news room. let us check in with elizabeth first.

thank you, we will look at how the budget affects you at home or work, the pound in your pocket, the services that you use, now we are going to be flying high above our virtual map of the uk over our virtual map of the uk this afternoon, stopping off along stopping map of the uk off along the way to ask people what they want to hear from the chancellor, and then once he sits down at about 11.30, we'll be gauging reaction to what he's had to say. with me throughout will be personal finance expert sarah pennells. sarah, what are you going to be looking out for today? there are three areas, one is on housing, because we know that it is a huge problem for young people, to get on the housing ladder at the moment. there have been been measures in the last few budgets but they are a bit of a jigsaw, there is

more that young people think needs to be done. self—employed, the chancellor has tried to make some changes to tax and national insurance for them and backed away from them but he still has his eye on them. possibly on pensions tax relief, making the system as some people see it fairer and and as others an unnecessary intervention. we heard from the prime minister that austerity was coming to a close, so people are going to have certain expectations perhaps today, ahead of today's budget, is that something the chancellor will be able to live up to? it is tricky, having said austerity is over, we expect something that will make us feel better, and the trouble is, you know, wages have been frozen, prices, food prices are rising, petrol prices are rising and in some ways that has raised bar, if he doesn't give some sort of give away budget, i think a lot of people will feel disappointed because they are why isn't austerity over? we were told it was and which should be feeling the benefits. 0k, thank you

very much. we will come back to you later on. if you want to get in touch with us, if you have a question for sarah, you can e—mail us question for sarah, you can e—mail us at haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. you can also tweet us. 0r us at haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. you can also tweet us. or you can also send us a text to 611211. andrew. than, elizabeth. budgets are about tax and spend, spend and tax and often regularly governments do not tax by enough to cover all the spending, so they have to borrow, quite a lot of borrowing in recent year, particularly since the great recession. i want to look at figures because it is done on the basis of forecast, by the independent forecaster that guides the government, and it was brought in by mr osborne as chancellor in 2010. so if we go back to november, 2016, it is only two years ago, this was the first official forecast, after the country had voted in the referendum,

to leave the european union. and the obr to leave the european union. and the 0br then got rather more gloomy as a result. it said, in that for cast, in that tax year, which was already half way through the government would neat to borrow £68 billion, in 16/17. it said the following year it would up it, the deficit, to £29 billion, and this year, it then said it would have to borrow over £46 billion. that is what the forecast from two years ago, what happened? well, have a look at this. in fact in 2016/17, eeven though the forecast had been made half way through the tax year, it turned out it borrowed over 23 or round 23 billion less than it forecast, the deficit was much lower, and lo and behold it happened again the following year, the deficit was under 40 billion, almost 20 billion

below the 0br's forecast. now, it forecast back then for this year, what is likely to happen? well it has downgraded that forecast to 37 billion in the spring statement of this year, but the latest suggestions, some emanating from not a thousand miles from the 0br itself, is that the deficit this year is going to be about 24, 25 billion. now you add up how much the obr billion. now you add up how much the 0br was out over these three years, it comes to a quite staggering 60 billion. £60 billion it was out in its forecast. what to you make that it shows that the obr has always been overpessimistic on how much the government would borrow, overpessimistic on how much tax would be collected and overpessimistic on the sometimes aretive effects after the referendum, the bank of england cut

interest rates, loosened monetary policy by cutting interest rates and quantitative easing, money support, financial support for the economy, and the budget of that year, if you rememberwasa and the budget of that year, if you remember was a sometimes ative budget, it was a tax give away, and mr hammond also loosened the public spending reins because of fears over the referendum, and the economy has performed slightly better, not as well as it was predicted do before the referendum but slightly better than expected. i think today we will see from the office for budget responsibility quite a major revision of how they account for the deficit and how they plot the deficit and how they plot the deficit into the future. the revision has been leaked, to prepare the ground. some of that, what will be important is the next five years going forward and whether mr hammond can hit his target to balance the books and allow for more spending. laura? it when we look back over the yea rs laura? it when we look back over the

years it is striking to me not to forgot how much the concept of the deficit drove the political debate. that was always for george osborne and david cameron, remember it was a joint project, the whole thing was the two of them in lock step, the deficit was the priority, almost above all else, and so now when we see how far out some of the numbers came, we are in a different position, what were they... they fixed and tax and spend policies, these figure, if you look at this, they could have cut some taxes by more 01’ they could have cut some taxes by more or increased spending more, on welfare, transport. whatever. and yet this is always the question, isn't it on days like this, because politicians have to make decisions on the economy, based on something. sure. forecasting notoriously imprecise, the 0br was meant to be better than the treasury had been and crucially they had that independence, so if they have the numbers whereon, what they have done in that period is change the concept of what is going on. it is not the

treasury. it will be interesting to see what they say. let us go to paul johnson. why does the 0br, why does it keep on getting the figures wrong? it has been out, particularly in the first year or two after forecast, essentially because it has not seen taxes come in as fast as they have. it is not that the economy has done a lot better than expected, but that we are getting better at collecting taxes or maybe taxes are more responsive to what is happening in the economy. don't forget, in a way it is not this year's numbers that matter so much, it is looking further out. if you look at the last pre—referendum budget in march 2016 it was forecasting a significant surplus next year. i would be very surprised if we get anything like a forecast for a surplus next year and evenif forecast for a surplus next year and even if the numbers look a bit

better than expected, i am sure the chancellor will spend every penny we can. but even in the spring forecast this year, only six months ago, the obr this year, only six months ago, the 0br was telling the government that it would not reach a deficit of about 24 billion until 1922, sorry, 2022! that would be something! i think it was still running a deficit in 1922 because of the first world war! we might still be running some of it still! 2022, but now it looks like being about 24 billion in 2018-19. i like being about 24 billion in 2018—19. i guess the point to address is, when the government sees these figures, they then determine by how much you will cut public spending and by how much taxes might

have to rise and it makes for a difficult public pozzo policy. it does but over time, what chancellor osborne did come as the deficit came in higher than expected, it was to maintain his tax and spending plans pretty much as was. and indeed, as the forecasts got worse over the last couple of years, chancellor hammond did not adjust and tighten spending or increased taxes. what i expect him to do this type, as the forecasts get better it looks like he will open the spending gates somewhat. he's not reacting in the same way as it gets different news. when you get bad news, chancellor ‘s world tend to not increased spending and cut taxes but good news means they do. i am sure he will take advantage of the good news today to increase predicted spending. there's been a lot of talk in the run—up to this, not least with the government

and the prime minister about the end of austerity. mark our card. to try to put this to the test and to see if austerity is really ending on what should we look out for? there are also two different definitions of what austerity is but at a minimum we would be looking for spending members in 2022 a good 20 billion higher than they were planned back in march and arguably they need to be 30 billion higher. so we need big numbers in the next few years into the spending relative to plant to say we are anything like out of austerity and that is just to stop additional cuts down the line, not to do with doing anything could that have occurred so far or indeed big increase in spending, that is just stopping additional cuts. we will come back to you as the afternoon progresses and get you to guide us through what the chancellor says. budgets are notjust about tax

and spending on the huge political occasions. vicki young is on the liz screen and i believe she might have some politicians with her. —— couege some politicians with her. —— college green. everyone's eyes are on the chancellor and how generous he will be able to babin bids for money from every corner of whitehawk and pressure from some on his own benches —— there have been bids for money from every corner of whitehall. we can discuss this with fraser nelson from the expected and chris nelson. do you think this is the time for the chancellor to splash the cash? certainly not. the tories were supposed to be balancing the budget and said that for years, that they were the party of fiscal austerity. the deposit will be smaller than he thought but it is still better and we are still adding to it all the time. if the conservatives have abandoned the notion about —— balancing the books, the enough, and in that case the

agenda is corporate, and whether it is the tories during we fundamentally becchio increased tax and borrowing and spending. this will be a moment of truth. it might be the budget in which the tories admit they were never really serious about balancing the books and that the spirit was willing but the flesh was weak. grace, how do you see this? do you think it is time for public services do have more of a boost to reverse the changes of the past? absolutely, i agree with fraser to an extent. that was likely because stereo has not worked. we we re because stereo has not worked. we were supposed to eliminate the death that by 2015 and then 2080 but we are still seeing this. —— 2018. it is largely because the man —— money the government has taken out of the economy has its impact on demand, it has shrunk economic growth and reduced tax revenues so here we are both fraser its right to say that the only alternative is a kind of

greater amount of taxation and spending and a bun medal me think about —— a fundamental rethink. spending and a bun medal me think about -- a fundamental rethink. that is the point. it is right and it is depressing for those of us who believed in what the government said it was trying to do to see them giving up the ghost. i would not agree that austerity has hurt growth. the conservatives have cut by one into the state spending, we are still spending around 100 billion more than in 2010. politically, they never quite felt able to balance the books but they kept talking about it as if they were. it feels as though certain sectors have had it really hard and they have been struggling. certainly, no doubt. while government spending has been pretty much in real terms flat out, you have seen the nhs grow and welfare

group but other departments cut a local authorities taking significant cuts, home office, justice and the police has cut probably about as far as they can bear. the problem was that the tories let it drag on for so long. they should have got it over with quickly at the labour government did in the late 70s, they could more in one year than george osborne did in eight years. now we have a legacy of this kind of drift, fiscal drift that they have let go for too long. the government would argue that they took the correct steps at the time but going back to 2010, it was a different time. something had to be done and something quite drastic. what you have seen, it is all very well saying you have only had a certain amount of government spending to get out but when you look at part of the public sector, £12 billion of wealth by cuts, cuts to the poorest part of society aimed at cleaning up the mess left by the financial crisis which was caused by the wealthiest. also seen £45 billion worth of cuts

to departmental spending everything from the local government of the foreign office. when we have these huge gaps in spending for social care, adults and children are social care, adults and children are social care, that is money that is meant to go to the most vulnerable people in society one of struggling with the debt the government has attempted to reduce itself sold there has been this explosion in private debt levels. thank you very much. some rousing music to get you in the mood for the budget! it is indeed come you're watching bbbc‘s budget coverage, the only covered with an accompanying music! there is a demonstration going on outside and we apologise if you had difficulty hearing. we are in a public space and we don't have control over that. we can go back to elizabeth. thank you. two things we know we will hear today, about the nhs, as we were

hearing, and we might also hear some things on welfare and we can speak to two people about that. nick hume is the chief executive of the east suffolk and north essex nhs trust and the deputy manager of ipswich citizens advice bureau. nick, if i can citizens advice bureau. nick, if i ca n start citizens advice bureau. nick, if i can start with you, we know that 20 billion figure nationally for the nhs, what difference would that money make to your trust? a big difference is as a sensible audero —— about how we spend it. just throwing money at a problem without some transformation will not deliver those improvements to patient care and social care we need to seek and we have to look at working at a syste m we have to look at working at a system level, not through individual organisations but what health and social and third sector to come together to see the best way to show those improvements to patients and the citizens through this welcome additional resource we will have to spend. you mentioned social care.

this 20 billion is not connected to social care. how big a problem it did, that we don't have a path forward for social care? it is a challenge. we know that the significant cuts we have seen across local authorities for a few years are affecting the lives of people and sometimes an impact often those reductions of services in local authorities have an impact on hospitals and primary care and mental health services. again, it is about us coming round the table with colleagues from social care and from health to see how we can spend the money for the benefit of people rather than the benefit of one section or one organisation. social ca re section or one organisation. social care isa section or one organisation. social care is a challenge, we would like to see more investment in it but recognising that unless we start to think about system, it will not have the impact that 20 billion that it could have. and it ipswich, the government are quite upbeat about

the economy, we're told there are more people in work than ever before. is that something you are feeling your clients? whether people are in work or not, a lot of our clients are coming to us with debt, we are all in more debt than we ever have been and with issues around benefits, whether those are in work or out of work, accessing them from the waiting times for them, these are issues that people are coming to us with. there are well documented problems with universal credit. can you talk to us about some of the issues you have had there? yes, in terms of the process, universal credit is very complex. the digital way in which people make the claim in the first place is very challenging for some people. the waiting times are pushing people into hardship and also the amount of debt... inaudible

we will leave it there because we are slightly losing your life but thank you very much to both of you. andrew. thank you for the laura and simon, in your view, andrew. thank you for the laura and simon, in yourview, was andrew. thank you for the laura and simon, in your view, was it sensible for the prime minister to talk about the end of austerity? i ask that, because by using the word austerity you have moved on of the opposition, and also you have given all of us a yardstick by which to judge everything the government does? absolutely right that think it created a political expectation problem for today and also a credible the gap. for a lot of people, including conservative councillors around the country, that is not what they are experiencing on the ground. we had a flavour of that, for theresa may to make such a bold proclamation has created a problem for the conservatives and it gives us this yardstick by which everything will be measured. the end

of austerity —— if it is over and done with, any cut or squeeze runs the risk of looking like it is callous and we don't need to do it and the tories are doing it... saint tekkers ended it hasn't. exactly and i think there will be some pots of cash for different bits of government —— saying it has ended. what a lot of tory mps worried about is what it all adds up to. what is the vision? if you talk about the fiscal strategy, will is the government want to do with our taxes and the spending of the country and what are they trying to achieve? do you are looking for a vision? well... i want to make sure. if there is a vision it will be a victorian orthodoxy of people keeping more of the money they make and if there is a potential rabbit out of a hat, it will be that we're on track to raise the amount of

money we can make before we start paying tax of 12 and a half thousand pounds not next year but the year after and 50,000 women high rate kicks in. in a way, a rabbit out of the hat would be to bring it all forward now and leave it there for long time and immediate fiscal drag. laura is right, the big picture to look for is, as a share of national income, if spending going up? it has not done for the last five years and also, if this is a tax raising or a tax giveaway budget and you look at that by looking at the pot of money and asking where they have got it from and which taxes have been changed in which direction and we will be able to tell that from the budget today. there was a time when british chancellors began their budget by doing a sort of tour of the global economy to put into context where britain was but they don't do that any more. that was when we were the fastest growing economy in the g—7 and now the slowest. we are not the slowest. japan still has that honour. italy is slower. and in the last two

quarters, france has been slow as well. i want to come to this the international environment is not so benign now for the putting the american comic aside from the eurozone is showing slides that are the signs of slowing the emerging markets are having trouble as well, there is a global liquidity squeeze as the federal reserve takes dollars out of the global system. absolutely and the risk was quite start at the imf in barley. i was surprised how gloomy some of the leading economists and global leaders were about the direction of the global economy “— about the direction of the global economy —— bali. how long would the fiscal stimulus boost america for? maybe two years, and as you said, this big capital flow from emerging markets in europe into america because of the federal reserve interest rate hikes. you are right. it is notjust brexit, for example, that the government has to worry about but also the fate of the

market in the uk comic. if he loses too much, the market will start saying, you might be a bit more risky than lesnar the money in america. the speaker has stepped down, because the house formally becomes the committee of ways and means whit it comes to consider financial matter, the deputy speaker takes over, he will introduce the chancellor, he is in the seat now, we are going to hearfrom him in just a second. there is a bit of business to be done, before we hear from the chancellor. simon, we may have to interrupt you, you said the chancellor may try to do something to bring investment forward. i suggest that is tough. until they see what brexit is. if it is such so off putting to people investing it will take quite a lot. so one possible answer is to raise the amounts of you can invest tax free. he will see what he does, he is on his feet, let us go to the budget of the autumn 2018.

a budget for hard—working families. who live their lives far from this place, and care little for the twists and turns of westminster politics, people who get up early, who open up factory, shops and building site, drop their kids off at school. check on elderly relatives and neighbour, the striefr, the grafters and the carers, who are the backbone of our communities, and our economy. strivers. people who ask only of government we protect the jobs that put food on their table that, we deliver the public services families rely on and we do it efficiently, minimising the amount of tax we need to ta ke minimising the amount of tax we need to take from their hard—earned wages. people, mr deputy speaker who we, on this side of the house, are proud to represent. so i say to them today, this budget is unashamedly for you. mr deputy speaker, the british

people put their faith mr deputy speaker, the british people put theirfaith in mr deputy speaker, the british people put their faith in us to do thejob, and people put their faith in us to do the job, and today we repay that trust, with a budget that paves the way for a brighter future. let trust, with a budget that paves the way for a brighterfuture. let me be clear why. the tough decisions of the past eight years were not driven by ideology... mr deputy speaker, they were not driven by ideology, they were not driven by ideology, they were not driven by ideology, they were driven, they were driven by necessity, and by the failure of the party opposite in government, which led to our deficit soaring to a post—war record and our economy suffering the deepest recession since the second world war, that mr deputy speaker, was our inheritance, as ever, we did what needed to be done. is now we have reached a defining moment on this long hard

journey, opening a new chapter, in our country's economic history, where we can look confidently to the future, and set our course for where this remarkable country will go next. because today, mr deputy speaker, i can report to the british people, that their hard work is paying off, and the era of austerity is finally coming to an end. now mr deputy speaker, i am sure, like me, many members of the house keenly remember the last budget delivered on a monday. it was 1962. i was six years old. tensions between russia and the united states we re between russia and the united states were rising. and a former foreign secretary turned chancellor delivered a budget amid cabinet revolt. mr deputy speaker, i am

acutely aware of the phenomenon of false memory, but i could swear i remember my parents turning to me and saying, philip, one day that could be you. mr deputy speaker, the media has been full of speculation about the timing of today's budget. some were hoping for a december budget. i am sure the headline writers were ready with something like spread sheet phil turns santa claus. others were desperate... 0therses were desperate for it to be on wednesday, hammo house of horrors perhaps? the truth is by choosing today rather than wednesday, i have not avoided the bloodcurdling threats, the anguished wailing and the strange banging of furniture that is usually associated with wednesday, i've been kind lynn

vice—presidented to a special meeting of the 1922 committee this evening. —— kindly invited. 0ur economy continues to confound those who talk it down. and continue to focus resolutely on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, as we build a new relationship with our european neighbours, a new future outside the european union. but as we do so, let us not forgot the remarkable achievements of the british people in clearing up the aftermath of labour's great recession. because, mr deputy speaker, for all labour's carping and relentless negativity, talking britain down at every opportunity, we, the british people, have a record to be proud of. eight straight years of economic growth. 0ver of. eight straight years of economic growth. over 3.3 million more people injobs. higher growth. over 3.3 million more people in jobs. higher employment, and lower unemployment, in every region

and every nation of the united kingdom. wages, wages growing at their fastest pace in almost a decade. income inequality, lower now, than at any time under the last labour government. an economy back on its feet again, an economy working, not for the few, not even for the many, an economy working for everyone. mr deputy speaker, with are at a pivotal moment in our eu negotiations, and the stakes could not be higher. get it right and we will not only protect britain's job, it right and we will not only protect britain'sjob, businesses and prosperity, but we will also harvest a double deal dividend, a boost from the end of uncertainty, and a boost from releasing some of the fiscal head room that i am holding in reserve at the moment. we are confident that we will secure a

deal which delivers that dividend. confident, but not complacent, mr deputy speaker, so we will continue to plan for all eventuality, and i will do so at this budget with a three pronged approach. first, i have already allocated £2.2 billion to departments for brexit preparations, and in the autumn budget last year, i set aside a further £1.5 billion to be allocated for 2019/0. today i am increasing that to £2 billion, and in the coming week, the chief secretary will announce allocations to individual departments, secondly, i shall today maintain the head room to my fiscal rule, broadly as set out in the spring statement. retaining firepower to intervene if the economy needs more support, in the economy needs more support, in the coming months. and thirdly, as i have been clear since moving to an autumn budget, if the economic or

fiscal outlook changes materially in year, i will take whatever action is appropriate, if necessary, upgrading the spring statement to a full fiscal event. mr deputy speaker, the house can be confident that we are working for the best outcome for britain, and preparing for every eventuality. mr deputy speaker, i shall first report to the house on the economic forecasts of the independent 0br and ithan, forecasts of the independent 0br and i than, robert chote and his team once again, for their excellent work. the obr work. the 0br expect growth fob resilient across the forecast period, improving next year, from the 1.3% forecast at the spring statement, to 1.6%. then.4% in 2020 and 2021. 1.15 in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023. mr deputy speaker, this government has prioritised getting people into

work, because the best way to help people, is to provide them with the stability of a pay packet every month. since 2010, over 3.3 million more people are in work, and today, the obr people are in work, and today, the 0br confirm britain's jobs people are in work, and today, the 0br confirm britain'sjobs miracle is set to continue. revising up participation in the labour market, revising down, the country's equilibrium unemployment rate, predicting 800,000 morejobs by 2023. by my calculation, mr deputy speaker, that is over 4.2 million net newjobs since 2010. making the shadow chancellor's prediction of 1.2 millionjobs lost out, by just the prediction of 1.2 millionjobs lost out, byjust the tiniest margin of 5.4 million people.

roughly the population of scotland. but now, mr deputy speaker, we need to focus on pay. and with the proportion of low paid jobs at its lowest since 1997, with regular pay growth at 2.3 —— 37.1%, its strongest in almost a decade and inflation forecast to avram 2% next year, the 0br is forecasting sustained real wage growth in each of the next five years. —— average. afar of the next five years. —— average. a far cry of the next five years. —— average. afarcry mr of the next five years. —— average. a far cry mr deputy speak refer the dismal picture that the leader of the opposition is so desperate to paint every wednesday. i turn now, to the fiscal forecast. we inherited the highest budget deficit in our peacetime history. but after eight year, the hard work of the british people is paying off and we will not squander their efforts. today's forecast, taking into

account all announcements made since the spring statement, including measures i shall announce today, shows the deficit down from almost 10%, under labour, to less than 1.4% next year, under this conservative government. and falling, tojust government. and falling, to just 0.8% by 2023/24. borrowing this year will be £11.6 billion lower than forecast at the spring statement. just 1.2% of gdp and is then set to fall from 31.8 billion in 2019/20 to 27.7 billion in 2021, 20.8 in 2000/23 and 19.8 billion in 2023/4, its lowest level in over 20 years. so mr deputy speaker we meet our

structural borrowing target three yea rs early, structural borrowing target three years early, and deliver borrowing of just 1.3% years early, and deliver borrowing ofjust1.3% of gdp in 2021. maintaining £15.4 billion head room against our 2% fiscal rules target. we are no longer borrowing at all to finance current spending, and today, the obr finance current spending, and today, the 0br confirm our national debt peaked in 2016/17 at 85.2%, of gdp, and then falls in every year of the forecast, from 83.7% this year, to 74. 1196 forecast, from 83.7% this year, to 74.11% in 2023/24. that is lower in every year, than forecast at the spring statement, and it means that we meet our target to get debt falling through years early. a turning point in our nation's recovery, from labour's great recession. both ourfiscal... both

our fiscal rules met, recession. both ourfiscal... both ourfiscal rules met, both recession. both ourfiscal... both our fiscal rules met, both of them three years early. so mr deputy speaker, fiscal phil says fiscal rules 0k. mr deputy speaker... mr deputy speaker, while we are working to get britain's debt down, to end the nightmare of wasting over £50 billion a yore on interest, the party opposite would do the opposite. their plans would increase tax and borrowing by £1,000 billion, taking our debt to gdp ratio soaring to over 100% of gdp. a reckless and irresponsible policy from a reckless and irresponsible party. i have always been clear, sound

public finances are essential, but they are not an end in themselves. so since i have been chancellor, i have taken a balanced approach, putting an additional £60 billion into our public services and investment in our futureer cutting tax to 31 mp million people and reducing borrowing and getting our national debt falling. now we must do more and, thanks to the hard work of the british people come in this budget b can do more. i said in the spring statement that our careful management of the public finances was beginning to pay off and if the improvement we saw then continued, then i would be able to provide more support to our public services on a sustainable basis. today, the 0br confirm a significant improvement in our public finances and upgrade that underscores the ha rd and upgrade that underscores the hard work of the british people and this government's stewardship of

this government's stewardship of this economy since 2010. and it means i can deliver on that promise i made means i can deliver on that promise imade in means i can deliver on that promise i made in the spring, setting out a new path for public spending and a clear view for the british people of the fruits of their hard work. next year we will conduct a full spending review, setting our priorities for public spending within a sustainable funding envelope, deciding on the right balance between investing in britain's future and current consumption of public services. today i have set out an indicative five—year path for departmental resource spending, or r—del as it is no true aficionados of public finance. for context, in the spending review 2010, average annual real growth was —3%. in the spending review of 2015, it was —1.3%. from

next year, it will be plus 1.2% average annual real growth. but that is not the limit of my ambition. when our eu negotiations deliver a deal, as i am confident they will coveri deal, as i am confident they will cover i expect that the deal dividend will allow us to provide further funding dividend will allow us to provide furtherfunding for dividend will allow us to provide further funding for the spending review. the hard work of the british people is paying off. austerity is coming to an end. mr deputy speaker, you will know better than most that every chancellor likes to have a rabbit or two in his hat as he approaches a budget. this year, some of my star bunnies appear to have escaped early. injune, my right honourable friend the prime minister announced

the single largest cash commitment to our public services ever made by a peacetime government, an a 4p five year deal for our precious nhs, a peacetime government, an a 4p five year dealfor our precious nhs, half as much again as the increase labour offered the nhs at the last election —— eight 5p. and we are delivering this historic £20.5 billion real terms increase to the nhs in full over the next five years. in a very important sense, mr deputy speaker, we made our big choice for this budget four months before it was deliberate and this was the right decision. 0ur nhs is the number one priority of the british people. as we approach the 70th anniversary of its foundation, they had a right to know the scale of our commitment to it. but the british people also care that money invested in the nhs goes to the front line and to improvements in services. we did not just hand over money, we agreed that

the nhs would produce a 10—year plan setting out how the service will reform, how waste will be reduced, and reform, how waste will be reduced, a nd exa ctly reform, how waste will be reduced, and exactly what the british people can expect to get for their money. that plan will be published shortly but i shall give the house a sneak preview today. i also can poach a rabbit every now and then! there are many pressing demands on additional nhs funding but few more pressing than the needs of those who suffer from mental illness. and today i can announce that the nhs ten year plan will include a new mental health crisis service with comprehensive mental health support available in every major a&e, children and young people's crisis teams in every part of the country, more mental—health ambulances, more safe havens in the and eight 24 hour mental health

crisis hotline. these new services will ensure that people suffering from a crisis, young or old, can get the help they need, ending the stigma that has forced to many to suffer in silence. and ending also the tragedy of too many lives lost to suicide. we are proud to have made this extraordinary commitment to funding our nhs, a precious institution that has been nurtured for most of its life by conservative governments. mr deputy speaker, departmental spending allocations will be settled at the spending review next year however there are a small number of areas where i can provide further support now in order to deliver necessary certainty for forward planning. local government has made a significant contribution to repairing the public finances and

this budget ensures local councils have more resources to deliver high quality public services also we are giving councils greater control over the money they raised through the aduu the money they raised through the adult social care precept, through our plans for increased business rate retention from 2020, and by removing the housing revenue account cap so councils can help to build the homes of his country needs. we will shortly publish our green paper on the future of social care. setting out the choices, some difficult, for making our social ca re systems difficult, for making our social care systems sustainable into the future but i recognise the immediate pressures local authorities face in respect of social care. so, building on the £240 million for social care winter pressures announced earlier this month, i will make available a further £650 million grant funding for english authorities for 2019—20 and an additional £45 million for

the disabled facilities grant in england in 2018—19 and will invest a further £84 million over the next five years to expand our successful children's social care five years to expand our successful child ren's social care programmes five years to expand our successful children's social care programmes to 20 further councils with high or rising numbers of children in care. allowing councils to improve services for older people, for people with disabilities, and for children in care now while longer term funding decisions will be made at the spending review. mr deputy speaker, the uk spends more on defence than any nato member except the us. but over the last year, we have had stark reminders of the scale, scope and complex at each of the threats we face. my right honourable friend the defence secretary is working with the cabinet office and the treasury to conduct a review into the modernisation of our armed forces in response to the evolving threat

which will form the basis for a comprehensive consideration of defence spending next year. as a former defence secretary myself, i understand the immediate pressures our armed forces are facing. so i will provide an additional £1 billion to the mod to cover the remainder of this year and next, to boost our cyber capabilities and anti—submarine warfare capacity and to maintain the pace of the dreadnought programme to ensure continuous at sea deterrence. a deterrent, mr deputy speaker, that allows us to sleep easy in our beds but one that the leader of the opposition and his shadow chancellor have spent their political lifetime is campaigning to abolish. nobody should be in any doubt that, on this side of the house, we are proud of our armed forces. and we will always

back them with the investment they need to keep this country safe. mr deputy speaker, it is not only our armed forces that keep us safe. 0ur counterterrorism police play a vital role in defending britain against the evolving threats we face. we committed in 2015 to spend 30% more on counterterrorism capabilities over the current spending review period and today i commit an additional £160 million of counterterrorism police funding for 2019-20 to counterterrorism police funding for 2019—20 to protect ceti police numbers in 2019—20 and allow future ct pan police funding to be considered in the round at the spending review. i recognise that policing more generally is under pressure from the changing nature of crime. i also recognise the representations made despite many collea g u es representations made despite many colleagues like my honourable friend the memberfor south colleagues like my honourable friend the member for south west bedfordshire and i can tell the house today that my right honourable

friend the home secretary will review police spending power and further options for reform when he presents the provisional police funding settlement in december. mr deputy speaker, as i have already set out, due to the hard work of the british people, public borrowing this year is coming in substantially below forecast. this allows us to provide additional support for public services in the spending review and contributes to the significant reduction in forecast debt this year. i also want to use this good news to give a little bit back where it can be put to good use in this financial year. mr deputy speaker, this year marks a century since the end of the first world war. as we remember ourfallen servicemen and women who sacrificed gilly sacrifice ensure the freedom we enjoy today, many products are raising money for veterans charities from sales of commemorative items on which vat is charged. we cannot

waive the vat on these sales but we can makea waive the vat on these sales but we can make a donation with the vat we will receive. i commit to date that the treasury will mark the centenary of the armistice by making a donation of £10 million to the armed forces covenant donation of £10 million to the armed forces cove na nt fu nd donation of £10 million to the armed forces covenant fund trust to support veterans with mental health needs. many of our nation's village halls were built to commemorate the sacrifice of world war i, but many are being refurbished to come and eight be sent to i will also provide funding forgrant eight be sent to i will also provide funding for grant equivalent to the vat chargeable on such refurbishment projects. as our focus moves from the anniversaries of the first world war to the second, i will also provide £1.7 million for educational programmes in schools to mark the 75th anniversary of the liberation of the bergen—belsen concentration camps. ensuring the next generation

hears the stories of those who survived the holocaust and of the british soldiers who liberated them. because, mr deputy speaker, as the terrible events in pittsburgh this weekend remind us, the battle against anti—semitism did not end with the defeat of nazi germany. across the length and breadth of england, ourair across the length and breadth of england, our air ambulance services work tirelessly to get those with life—threatening illnesses and injuries quickly to the expert medical care they need, funded entirely by philanthropy, they do a fantasticjob. entirely by philanthropy, they do a fantastic job. today i entirely by philanthropy, they do a fantasticjob. today i am making £10 million of funding available to help them go on doing so. mr deputy speaker, we are investing record amounts in our schools and that investment is paying off, with 86% of schools, 86% of schools now rated

good or outstanding compared to 68% in 2010. but i recognise that school budget often do not stretch to that extra bit of kit that would make such a difference. today... i am announcing a £400 million in year bonus to help our schools by the little extras they need, a one—off capital payment directly to schools, averaging £10,000 per primary school and £50,000 per secondary school. mr deputy speaker, i have one final in year measure to announce. every member of parliament will testify that potholes are high on the public list of concerns. as autumn takes hold, iam list of concerns. as autumn takes hold, i am making an additional £420 million available immediately, immediately come to local highway authorities to tackle potholes,

bridge repairs and other minor works in this financial year. but, mr deputy speaker, if we want sustainable, world—class public services and rising living standards, we must make the serious long—term reforms our economy needs to tackle the productivity challenge, to prepare our nation for the technological change ahead, and to show the next generation that our market economy can evolve once again to meet the needs of the new age. because, for us on this side of the house, ending austerity is notjust about funding public services, it is about funding public services, it is about real wage growth and it is about real wage growth and it is about leaving more of people's hard earned money in their pockets. this is the nation of the industrial revolution, of stevenson, whittle, lovelace and faraday, peoples whose ideas shaped the world around them and to date but once again can lead the world as we exploit a new wave

of scientific and technological discovery, pouring out of our universities and research institutes. we can solve the productivity challenge if we are willing to embrace the future. to make the choice to invest in infrastructure in research, in skills and in our regions. to manage change, not hide from it. mr deputy speaker, i believe passionately in this agenda but even i would admit that perhaps at the last two budget imight that perhaps at the last two budget i might have given the house a bit more detail information on productivity and technological innovation that it's strictly needed so this time i will leave it to the budget red book to set out more details of the many measures we will ta ke details of the many measures we will take today. mr deputy speaker, sensing the disappointment of my colleagues, i will just disappointment of my colleagues, i willjust mention that this list in the budget red book includes our

commitment to technology, with £1.6 billion, of new investments to support our modern industrial strategy, ranging from nuclear fusion, to quantum computing, £150 million forfellowships fusion, to quantum computing, £150 million for fellowships to attract the brightest talent to these shores from around the world, so our scientific research continues to lead the world. and our commitment to infrastructure expanding the national productivity investment fund, once again, to over £38 billion by 2023/24, so that over the next five year, total public investment is growing by 30%, to its highest sustained level, in 40 year, and will, on average, be an astonishing £460 million a week higher in real terms that under the last labour government. a conservative government, mr deputy speaker, investing in the roads, the

railway, the research, and digital infrastructure that will power this country in the 21st century. mr deputy speaker, half of the uk's £600 billion infrastructure pipeline will be built and financed by the private sector. and in financing public infrastructure, i remain committed to the use of public private partnership, where it delivers value for the taxpayer, and genuinely transfers risk to the private sector. but there is evidence that the private finance initiative does neither. the shadow chancellor of course rages against pfi at every opportunity yet curiously forgets to mention nearly 90% of those contracts were agreed by the last labour government, leaving the nation with a bill of more than £200 billion to pay off. in what would be the most potent

symbol of the economic mismanagement of the last labour government, if only gordon brown hadn't sold the gold. labour's policy is to terminate all these contracts, triggering the ruinous penalty clauses they themselves agreed to in the first place. adding tens of billions more, to an already enormous bill. a classic labour solution, for pouring good money after bad. i will not do that, we will honour existing contracts but the day of the public sector being a push over must end. we will establish a centre of excellence to actively manage these contracts in the taxpayers' interest, starting in the taxpayers' interest, starting in the health centre, and we will go further. i have never signed off a pfi contract as chancellor, and i confirm today, that i never will.

ican confirm today, that i never will. i can announce that the government, the government will establish the use of pf! and pf2 for future project, putting another legacy of labour behind us. mr deputy speaker, we are investing in our nation's infrastructure, and backing the technologies of the future. but we know that the real engine of growth is enterprise. the right honourable member for engine of growth is enterprise. the right honourable memberfor hayes and haroldling on the lists foe meanting the and haroldling on the lists foe mea nting the over throw and haroldling on the lists foe meanting the over throw of capitalism. mine is reinvigorating capitalism, because, mr deputy speaker, i want britain to be one of the great winners of the technological revolution, on this side of the house, we will always back enterprise and the market economy that underpins it, because we know it is the only way to deliver the high wage, high skill economy of the too future, as we

finalise our departure from the eu, and deliver a deal that secures britain's future trade, we must unleash the investment that will drive our future prosperity, unleash the investment that will drive ourfuture prosperity, so today i can announce a package of measures to stimulate business investment and send a message loud and clear to the rest of the world, britain is open for business. mr deputy speaker, i am increasing the annual investment allowance from £200,000, to £1 million, for two yea rs. £200,000, to £1 million, for two years. delivering on a long—standing can of the british chambers of commerce, i am can of the british chambers of commerce, iam providing can of the british chambers of commerce, i am providing a targeted leaf for the cost of acquiring ip rich businesses and introducing a permanent tax releft for non—for new nonresidential structures and buildings, partly funded by an adjustment in the special writing down rate for long life assets from 8% to 6%, to better align the tax

and accounting treatment of these assets. to support british exports we will increase uk ef direct lending facility by up to £2 billion, we will open the use of epassport gates at heathrow and other airports, currently only available to eea nationals to include visitors from the united states, canada, new zealand, australia, and japan. and we will provide an additional £200 million of funding to the british business bank, to replace access to the european investment fund, if needed. we will back another 10,000 entrepreneurs by extending start up loa ns entrepreneurs by extending start up loans funding to 2021 and following representations i am extending the new enterprise allowance providing mentoring and support for benefit claimants to get their business ideas off the ground. and with thanks to my honourable

friend the member for theirsing and with thanks to my honourable friend the memberfor theirsing and malton we are working on expanding access to the financial ombudsman service. as well as backing businesses to invest and grow, we will make sure british workers are equipped with the skills they need to thrive and prosper, we have introduced a new system of vocational training, have put the first £100 million into the new national retraining scheme and through the apprenticeship levelly we are delivering 3 million high quality apprenticeships in this parliament. but that system is paid for by employers and it has to work for employers. so today, in addition to the flexibilities i announced earlier this month, i can announce that for smaller firms taking on presents we will halve the amount they have to contribute from 10%, to 5%. —— apprentices this is a £695

million package to support apprenticeships. mr deputy speaker, as our economy evolves in the digital age, so too must our tax system. to ensure that it remains fair, and robust against abuse, and that it raises the revenues we need to fund our public services, the employment allowance was introduced to incentivise businesses to take on employee, but at a flat rate of £3,000 per employ yes, it does not provide any real incentive for larger employer, so from april 2020, we will target it at small and medium bids with an employer national insurance bill under £100,000 a year. we will bring the treatment of capital losses for the largest companies into line with that of income losses. mr deputy speaker, we recommit today, to keeping family homes out of capital gains tax. but some aspects of

private residence leaf extend it beyond that objective, and provide relief for people who are not using the home as their main resident. so, from april 2020, we will limit lettings leaf to properties where the owner is in shared occupancy with the tenant and reduce the final period exemption from 1 months to nine months. mr deputy speaker, i have received representation i should establish entrepreneur relief and put the savings towards funding our nhs commitments. but i do not believe we can have sustainable public services, unless we have a dynamic economy. and encouraging entrepreneurs member at the heart of strategy for a dynamic economy, so i will retain entrepreneurs relief but to ensure it is going to genuine entrepreneurs i will extend the minimum qualifying period to two

yea rs, minimum qualifying period to two years, in the period since the last budget, we have explored all avenues, to address the cliff edge effect of vat registration. but our options are restricted by eu law. we will continue to work on this issue, as our future vat regime becomes clear over the years ahead. and in the meantime, to give small businesses certainty, and in responsibility to representations from my right honourable friends the fsb and others i will leave the threshold unchanged for a further two years, mr deputy speaker, the off payroll working rules are designed to ensure fairness. so that individuals working side by side in a similar role for the same employer pay the same employment tax, last year, we changed the way the rules are enforced in the public sector, but widespread noncompliance also

exists in the private sector so following our consultation we will apply the same changes to private sector organisations as well. but after listening carefully to representations made including many from my honourable and right honourable friend, during the consultation, we will delay these changes until april 2020 and we will only apply them to large and medium sized businesses. mr deputy speaker, there is one stand out example of where the rules of the game must evolved now if they are to keep up with the emerging digital economy. digital platforms, delivering search engine, social media and online market places have changes our lives, our society, and our economy, mostly for the better. but they also pose a real challenge for the sustainability and fairness of our tax system. the rules have simply not kept pace with changing business

models and it is clearly not sustainable orfair models and it is clearly not sustainable or fair that digital platform businesses can generate substantial value in the uk, without paying tax here, in respect of that business. the uk has been leading attempts to deliver international corporate tax reform for the digital age. a new global agreement is the best long—term solution, but progress is painfully slow. we cannot simply talk forever. so we will now introduce... we will now introduce a uk digital services tax. this will bea uk digital services tax. this will be a narrowly targeted tax on the uk generated revenues of specific digital platform business models. it will be carefully designed to ensure it is established giants rather than tech start ups that shoulder the burden on this new tax, it is

important i emphasise this is not an online sales tax on goods ordered over the internet, that would fall on the consumers and that is not our intention. the tax will only be paid by companies which are profitable and generate at least £500 million a yearin and generate at least £500 million a year in global revenues in the business lines in scope. we will co nsulta nt business lines in scope. we will consultant on the detail, to make sure we get it right, and to ensure that the uk continues to be the best place in the world, to start and scale up a tech business. the tax will come into effect in april 2020, and is expected to raise over £400 million a year. in the meantime, we will continue to work at the oecd and the g20, to seek a globally agreed solution, and if one emerges, we will consider adopt don'ting it in place of the uk digital services tax. —— adopting it. this shows we are serious about

this reform, because mr deputy speaker, it is only right, that these global giants, with profitable businesses in the uk, pay theirfair share towards supporting our public services. mr deputy speaker, i am already looking forward to my call from the former leader oaf the lib dems. —— leader of. we are are updating the rules of the game, but we must also make sure that people play by the rule, and today, we continue to work of the past eight year, where we have secured £185 billion since 2010, which would otherwise have gone unpaid. with a package of measure today to further clamp—down on tax avoidance, and evasion, raising another 2 billion over the next five year, we will make hmrc a preferred

creditor in business insolvencies to ensure that tax, which has been collected on behalf of hmrc is actually paid to hmrc. we will end the practice of purchasing services through overseas branches to avoid uk vat, and we will crackdown on insurance compa ny‘s services uk vat, and we will crackdown on insurance company's services there offshore territories and we will stop our generous r and d tax credit system being abused by introducing a restriction for the small and heed yum size companies scheme. labour talk tough on tax avoidance and evasion. we take action. mr deputy speaker, investing in our infrastructure, backing the technologies of the future, supporting british businesses, updating our tax system for the digital age. that is how we will deliver the high wage, high skilled economy of the future. but we must

also recognise that technological change will bring challenges as well as opportunities and there is one pa rt as opportunities and there is one part of our economy that is currently confronting that challenge in spades, our high streets. embedded in the fabric of our great cities, towns and villages, the high—street lies at the heart of many communities and it is under pressure as never before as britain adopts online shopping with greater alacrity than any other large economy. if our high streets are to remain at the centre of our community life, they will need to adapt. today we support them to do so, responding to calls from across this house, especially from my right honourable friend the member for putney and my honourable friend the member is for southport and croydon south, we will provide £675 million of funding to create a future high—street fund to support councils to draw up a formal plans for the

transformation of their high streets. to invest in the improvements they need and to facilitate redevelopment of underused retail and commercial areas into residentialfor the add one and the same time, helping with the housing challenge and delivering much—needed footfall to high—street businesses. we will consult on how modernisation of the use classes order and the cpo regime can help facilitate the transformation of the high—street. mr deputy speaker, the change that our high streets face is irreversible and it will take them time to adapt to it. but i know that many small retail businesses are struggling to cope with the high fixed costs of business rates. since 2016, have introduced his district relief measures worth £12 billion and many of these reliefs will have benefited the high—street

businesses. but today i can go further. at the next revaluation in 2021, rateable values will adjust to reflect changes in rental values but i want to help retail businesses now. for the next two years, up to that revaluation, for all retailers in england with a rateable value of £51,000 or less, i will cut their business rates bill by one third. that is an annual saving of up to £8,000 forup to that is an annual saving of up to £8,000 for up to 90% of all independent shops, pubs, restaurants and cafes. i will also extend the £1500 local newspaper discount for a further year. mr deputy speaker, whatever the national press says, i have been assured of a warm welcome

for my budget from the royston crow and the keswick reminder! local authorities have long been able to provide discretionary business rates relief to other bodies but not to themselves. following representations from my honourable friend for north cornwall and st austell and newquay, iam friend for north cornwall and st austell and newquay, i am pleased to announce a new monetary business rates relief for public lavatories so that local authorities can at last relieve themselves... for the convenience of the house, mr deputy speaker. and without wishing to get unduly bogged down on this subject, this release, the house would be interested to know, that this relief... at least i'm demonstrating

where all british! this relief will extend to any such facilities are made available for public use, whether publicly or privately owned. honestly, mr deputy speaker, i can say this is virtually the only announcement in this budget that hasn't leaked! mr deputy speaker... mr deputy speaker, we cannot resolve the productivity challenge or deliver the high standards of living the british people deserve without fixing our housing market. in last yea r‘s fixing our housing market. in last year's budget i launched a five—year £44 billion housing programme to deliver the biggest increase in housing supply since 1970 and i abolished stamp duty for first—time buyers on properties up to £300,000. 121,501st-time buyers on properties up to £300,000. 121,501st—time buyers have already benefited from our new relief and

the number of first—time buyers is atan11 year the number of first—time buyers is at an 11 year high. today i am extending this relief to all first—time buyers of shared ownership properties valued up to £500,000 and i will make this relief retrospective so that any first—time buyer who has made such a purchase since the last budget will benefit. but we have more to do so i can announce a further £500 million for the housing infrastructure fund to unlock a further 650,000 homes. the next wave of strategic partnerships, with nine housing associations, which will deliver 13,000 homes across england come up to £1 billion british business bank guarantees to support the revival of sme house—builders. we are consulting on simpler purgation of the process from conversion of commercial property into new homes and because we wa nt property into new homes and because we want to seek parishes and neighbourhood enabling more homes sale to local people to buy at

prices they can afford, we are providing funding to empower up to 500 neighbourhoods to allocate or permission land for housing through the neighbourhood planning system for sale at a discount to local people in perpetuity. i am also grateful to my right honourable friend the member for west dorset for his review of build out rates published today. he concludes that the large house—builders are not engaged in systematic speculative land banking and he makes several recommendations... maybe the honourable lady would like to read the report. he makes several recommendations for reform of the planning system in respect of very large strategic housing site and we will respond in full to his report in the new year. mr deputy speaker, meeting the productivity challenge means tapping the potential of every region and nation. 0ur devolution agenda is giving power back to the

people and today we go further to fire up the northern powerhouse, fuel the midland engine, and back our regions across the uk. we are increasingly transforming cities fund to £2.4 billion and providing an additional £90 million to trial new models of smart transport, including on demand buses. i think thatis including on demand buses. i think that is what we used to call in our data taxis. we are launching a competition for proposals for business led development corporations, we are funding ten university enterprise zones, there is £115 million for digital catapult in the northeast, northern ireland and the south—east, and the medicines discovering catapult in orderly. £70 million to develop the defence and national rehabilitation centre in loughborough, £37 million of additional developer and funding for northern powerhouse rail, and £10 million for a new pilot in

manchester to support the self employed to acquire new skills. we are backing a new special economic area in south tees, and providing £20 million to further develop the plan for the critical central section of east—west rail between 0xford section of east—west rail between oxford and cambridge. and here in our capital we support the delivery ofa our capital we support the delivery of a further 19,000 homes by improving the docklands light railway with housing infrastructure fund money. mr deputy speaker, the decision is announced in this budget means that in 2021 and additional £950 million for the scottish government, £550 million for the bus government, £320 million for a northern ireland executive. obviously much larger sums to come as we move ahead over the spending review period with our nhs funding change —— of for the welsh government. i can also announce funding forfurther

government. i can also announce funding for further city and growth deals including £150 million for a cities, £350 million for belfast, and £120 million for north wales while the concessions progressed with ayrshire, mid wales and borderlands and will begin with murali, derry londonderry and strabane murali, derry londonderry and stra bane as well. murali, derry londonderry and strabane as well. i was pleased to respond to a joint request from the members of belfast north, belfast east and belfast south to provide... —— begin with murray. to provide the city with £2 million help towards the recovery of the city centre following the fire at the iconic banks building. and we are also moving forward with schools project in northern ireland worth £300 million to increase the provision of shared and integrated cross

community education. we have agreed to the establishment of a working group to progress plans for short—haul apd devolution. to continue to support scotland's oil and gas industry, we will maintain headline tax rate at their current level and launched a call for evidence on our plan to make scotla nd evidence on our plan to make scotland a global hub for decommissioning. finally, to support our vital fishing industry as we leave the eu, we will invest £12 million over the next three years in cutting edge fisheries technology and safety measures. a conservative government, mr deputy speaker, delivering for all our proud nations and for all our english regions. driving growth and prosperity across our united kingdom. mr deputy speaker, we are driven by a determination to ensure that the next generation will be more prosperous than ours. but we cannot

secure our children's future unless we secure our planet's future. at this budget i take further action with a package of measures set out in the red book to ensure that we leave our environment in a better state than we inherited it. there is one particular measure i want to mention. the shadow chancellor's recent accident has reminded us all how dangerous abandoned waste can be. i will provide £10 million to deal with abandoned waste sites, although i cannot guarantee to the house that £10 million is going to be enough to stop him falling flat on his face in the future! mr deputy speaker, i also said at the spring statement that we must become a world leader in tackling the scourge of plastic littering our

planet and oceans. billions of disposable plastic drinks cups, cartoons, bags and other items are used every year in britain, convenient for consumers but deadly for our wildlife and oceans. where we cannot achieve reuse, we are determined to increase recycling. we will introduce a new tax on the manufacture and import of plastic packaging which contained less than 30% recycled plastic, transforming the economics of sustainable packaging. we will consult on the detail and implementation timetable. i have also looked carefully at the case for introducing a levy on the production of disposable plastic cups, not just for coffee production of disposable plastic cups, notjust for coffee but on all types of beverage. i have concluded that a tax in isolation would not at this point deliver a decisive shift from disposable to reusable cups

across all beverage types. i will monitor carefully the effectiveness of the action which the takeaway drinks industry is already taking to reduce single use plastics and i will return to this issue, if sufficient progress is not made. but in parallel, my right honourable friend the environment secretary will look to address this issue through the reform of the packaging producer responsibility scheme, working across government, this ambitious package reflects our determination to lead the world in the crusade to rid the oceans and the crusade to rid the oceans and the environment of plastic waste. mr deputy speaker, it is only by dealing with our debts and tackling the long—term challenges our country faces that we can sustainably raised wages and living standards but i recognise that many people are feeling the pressure on their household budgets now. because the ha rd household budgets now. because the hard work of the british people is

paying off, i am pleased to be able to announce today a series of measures to help families across britain with the cost of living. mr deputy speaker, turning first to duties, as my right honourable friend the primaries that has already announced, we will freeze fuel duties for the ninth successive year. bringing the total saving to the average car driver to over £1000 and to the average van driver to over £2500. the tobacco duty escalator will continue to rise at inflation plus 2%. mr deputy speaker, i have received numerous representations honourable and right honourable friends on one particular subject and in response, i will be freezing beer and cider duty for the next year. keeping the cost of beer down for patrons of the great british pub. and in response to the concerted lobbying of my scottish

conservative colleagues, i will also freeze duty on saving two pence on a pint of beer, one pence on a pint of cider. while proceeding with the usual rpi increases on wine. as promised at autumn budget 2017, so—called white ciders will be taxed ata so—called white ciders will be taxed at a new high errate. from october, next year, i can confirm that we will increase remote gaming duty on online games of chance, to 21%, in order to fund the loss of revenue, as we reduce fobti stakes to £2. from april 2020apd will be indexed

in line with inflation but there will be no change many duty rate for short—haulflights will be no change many duty rate for short—haul flights and the new rail ca rd short—haul flights and the new rail card which i announced last year, will be available across the network, by the end of the year. saving up to 4.4 million young people one third off their fares. and we launch a package of measures on affordable credit and support for credit unions which is set out in detail in the red book. mr deputy speaker, the switch to universal credit is a long overdue and necessary reform. it replaces the broken system left by the last labour government, a system mr deputy speaker that trapped millions on out of work benefits for nearly a

decade. this is notjust a welfare mesh ukraine it is a major struck churl reform to our economy, that will help to drive growth and employment in the years ahead. and i pay tribute to my right honourable the memberfor chingford pay tribute to my right honourable the member for chingford without whose tenacity universal credit would never have seen the light. i recognise the genuine concerns among many honourable and right honourable friends about two issue, first the implementation of this programme. it is, it is an enormous undertaking and we have always been clear we wa nt and we have always been clear we want the migration process to be as smooth as possible. i have already delivered nearly £3.5 billion to help with the transition, including a £1.5 billion package of support at last year's budget. today, i can go further, with a package of additional measures worth

£1 billion overfive package of additional measures worth £1 billion over five years, what a surprise mr deputy speaker, what a surprising response from the opposition front bench. a package of measures to aid the transition worth £1 billion overfive measures to aid the transition worth £1 billion over five years, measures to aid the transition worth £1 billion overfive years, enabling my right honourable friend the secretary of state for work and pension, to introduce additional protections as additional welfare claimants move on the uc and she will announce details when she introduces the managed migration regulations later this year. secondly, i have heard the concerns about the rates and allowances within the design of the system. in my first autumn statement i reduced the uc rate from 65% to 63%, and today, i can tell the house that i am increasing work allowances in universal credit by £1,000 per annum

ata universal credit by £1,000 per annum at a cost of £1.7 billion annually once roll out is complete. benefitting 2.4 million working families with children... 2.4 million working families with children, and people with disabilities, by £630 per year. children, and people with disabilities, by £630 peryear. mr deputy speaker, universal credit is here to stay. and we are putting in the funding it needs to make it a success , the funding it needs to make it a success, because on this side of the house, we believe that work should a lwa ys house, we believe that work should always pay. mr deputy speaker, delivering higher wages for those in work is core to my mission as chancellor. under this conservative government, the poorest 20% have seen their real incomes grow faster

than the richest 20% and the proportion ofjobs that are low paid is at its lowest level for 20 years. thanks to the national living wage introduced by a conservative government, in 2016. from april, it will rise again, by 4.9%, from £783 to 8.21, handing a full—time worker a further £690 annual pay increase, and taking his or her total pay rise since the introduckion of the living wage. we accept the low pay commission recommendation on national minimum wage rates, supporting young people and apprentices with further above inflation increases. the current remit for the low pay commission is for the national

living wage to reach 60% of median earnings by 2020, subject to sustained economic growth, but next year, we will need to give the low pay commission a new remit beyond 2020. we will want to be ambitious, with the ultimate objective of endling low pay in the uk. but we will also want to be careful, protecting employment for lower paid worker, so we will engage responsibly with employer, the tuc, and the low pay commission itself, over the coming months, gathering evidence and listening to views, to ensure that we get this right, and i will confirm the final remit at the budget next year. but as well as making... as well as making work pay. i hear the

honourable lady mr deputy speaker but her point is slightly blunted by the fact she made it in the autumn of 2016ment she made it again in the spring of 2017. and she made it again in the autumn of last year. mr deputy speaker, as well as making work pay, we want working people to keep more of the money they earn. when we came into office, the personal allowance stood at £6475 and the higher rate threshold £43875. in april, i raised the personal allowance to £11850 and the higher rate threshold to 46350. as steps towards our manifesto commitment, of 12550 respect toughly

by 2020. those commitments were of course made before our new funding pledge to the nhs. and i have received representations that the least painful way for tape to contribute, to increased nhs funding would be to abandon our manifesto pledge, and freeze the personal allowa nce, pledge, and freeze the personal allowance, and the higher rate threshold at current levels. but let me reassure the house, that unlike the right honourable gentleman opposite, my idea of ending austerity does not involve increasing people's tax bills. ididn't increasing people's tax bills. i didn't come into politics to put taxes up and the improvement we have delivered in the public finances means that based top 0br forecast published today, i do not need to do so. ican, i published today, i do not need to do so. i can, i can therefore confirm today, that i will meet our ma nifesto today, that i will meet our

manifesto commitments in april 2020, raising the personal allowance to £12500 and the higher rate to £50,000, before indexing both in line with inflation, from 2021/22. but our careful management of the economy, allows me to go further. so i will raise both the personal allowa nce, i will raise both the personal allowance, and the higher rate threshold to these levels, from april 2019. delivering our manifesto commitments one year early. a tax cut for 32 million people. £130 in the pocket of a typical basic rate taxpayer, meaning since 2015, we have taken 1.7 million people out of tax all together, and nearly one million people out of higher rate tax. mr deputy speaker, asa higher rate tax. mr deputy speaker, as a result of the announcements i

have made today, a single parent receiving yuck and working 225 —— universal credit will benefit by £809 next year. the hard work of the british people paying off in hard cash in their pockets. mr deputy speaker, we have turned an important corner, and now we must pull together, to build the bright, prosperous future thaw is within britain's grasp if we choose to seize it. embracing change building on the inherent strength of the british economy, and the indomitable spirit of the british people. mr deputy speaker, under this conservative government, austerity is coming to an end. but discipline will remain. austerity is coming to an end, but

discipline will remain, and that is the clear dividing line in british politics today. between a conservative government delivering on the british people's priority, supporting public service, investing in britain's future, keeping taxes low and getting our debt down or the corbyn party whose idea of ending austerity is to raise taxes to the highest level in peacetime history, that would send our debt soaring, squander the hard—won achievement of the past eight years and take this country back to square one. we are ata country back to square one. we are at a turning point in our history, and we must resolve to go forwards not backwards and work together to build a britain that we can all be proud of. i comment this statement to the house. studio: and he spoke for over an hour, there is is a break while hay

get through technical matters and we will return to listen tojeremy corbyn's response. let us go through some of the biggest measure, the personal tax allowance, that which was due to raise to reach the 12—and—a—half thousand by 2020 under the tory manifesto, that is now going to happen next spril and so the highest rate thresholds which go to 50 thou before you go into the 40% tax bracket. he kept that one to the end. that is one of the biggest measures there. he has given it 1.7 billion boost, this is to help, they have had problems introducing universal credit, he has put! billion into the transport system but he is trying to make the taper, the money you lose when owe get a pay rise a bit more gentle. something which has been trailed as pa rt something which has been trailed as part of the extra 20 billion for the nhs by 2022. there will be 2 billion

for better mental health centres within the nhs. some other big measures he said he would establish pfi future projects and he would not sign any new pfi as long as he was chancellor, there was another 400 million for schools in england. subsequent spending for the rest of the country. here is another big measure, that until there is international agreement, measure, that until there is internationalagreement, he measure, that until there is international agreement, he has decided britain should go on its own, introduce a digital services, tab on the big tech giants like google and apple and amazon. it is only meant to raise about 400 million, maybe he feels he can't do more on his own, that was something which will have everybody get up and ta ke which will have everybody get up and take notice. business rates for smaller retailers will be cut by one third over the next two years, in an attempt to try and help some of the small businesses particularly in the high streets that he spoke were so difficult. let us look at some of

them, for a budget that wasn't meant to do very much there is quite a lot. fuel duty frozen for the ninth consecutive year, it is costing the chancellor about 8 billion a year. tobacco duties will rise in line with inflation. passenger duty, will rise in line with inflation but he said that wasn't going to go up on the short—haul flights and the europe. kamal. give us your reaction. big thing from next year, for the five year spending plan from 2020 he wants public spending to rise and sharp contrast to the five year plan announced in 2010, which was for public spending to fall by 396, was for public spending to fall by 3%, and in 2015, which was for public spending to fall by 1.3% so he has done a... so that is his definition of the end of austerity. jeremy corbyn is on his feet. austerity is not over. far from

building a strong economy come eight yea rs of building a strong economy come eight years of austerity has damaged our economy, the late weakened the recovery and endlessly postponed the deficit. unnecessary austerity has caused real hardship to millions of our fellow citizens, held caused real hardship to millions of ourfellow citizens, held down living standards for the majority and failed on its own terms. mr deputy speaker, people have had enough... order. can ijust say that we heard the chancellor of the exchequer. i expect to hear the lead of the opposition. those who may put themselves in a position thinking i can't see them, i can, and i don't wa nt can't see them, i can, and i don't want to hear any more also i want to hearin want to hear any more also i want to hear in the same whether your constituents do. thank you, mr deputy speaker. the prime minister pledged austerity is over also this,

mr deputy speaker, is a broken promise budget. what we have today are half measures and quick fixes while austerity grinds on. far from people's hard work and sacrifice as having paid off, as the chancellor claims, this government has frittered it away in ideological tax cuts to the richest in our society. this budget will not undo the damage done by eight years of austerity and does not begin to measure up to the scale of thejob does not begin to measure up to the scale of the job that needs to be done to rebuild britain. the government claims austerity has worked. so now they can end it. but thatis worked. so now they can end it. but that is absolutely the opposite of the truth. austerity needs to end because it has failed. just two yea rs because it has failed. just two years ago, the forecast growth of

2.196 years ago, the forecast growth of 2.1% next year and the year after. today he boasts he has created robust economic growth but the forecasts have been dropped to just 1.6% next year and 1.4% per year after. economic growth in the first half of this year was the slowest since 2011. the last year we had the lowest growth of any major economy. this is not a strong economy but a wea k this is not a strong economy but a weak one, with chronically low investment, low wages and lower productivity. and, mr deputy speaker, the uncertainty caused by this government's shambolic handling of brexit is making things even worse. the warnings come... order. i expect better. you are very obviously right in my side so expect you go quietly out of the chamber if

you go quietly out of the chamber if you can't behave. the warnings come from across the economy, the car industry, farming and food, road haulage, uk manufacturing is currently in recession. so much for the much vaunted march of the makers. mr deputy speaker, they said austerity would mean the deficit would close by 2015. today the chancellor has confirmed it will still be there nine years later, in 2024. even now, great chunks of the deficit have simply been palmed off to others, not eradicated, moves into the accounts of nhs trusts, shovelled onto the books of local councils that have collapsed, with many more on the brink, and, most worryingly and frighteningly for many people, loaded onto the very fast rising of personal and household debt. for too long, the

party opposite peddled the myth that the last labour government crashed the last labour government crashed the economy by overspending on public services. as if, mr deputy speaker, investing to bring health spending, as the last labour government did come up to european levels, had caused the global financial crash. 0n levels, had caused the global financial crash. on this side of the house we believe that spending on public services is an investment that benefits the health of our people and the economy of our country. this morning at the health secretary said that it would take a generation to achieve parity of esteem of mental health and refused to say whether the money was ring fenced. and that money is only half of what leading mental health experts say is necessary. but the impact of austerity on our people's

health is more than the nhs funding. improvement in life expectancy is stalling for the first time in modern history and, in the poorest areas of our country, life expectancy is actually falling and child mortality is rising. the national health service, our precious national health service, is a thermometer of the well—being of our society. but the illness is austerity, cuts to social care, failure to invest in housing and slashing of real social security. it has one inevitable consequence also people's health has got worse and demand on the national health service have increased. 1.4 million elderly people not getting the care they need. tory cuts have taken 7 billion, 7 billion, mr deputy speaker, from social care budgets

also today's announcement is a drop in the ocean before adult and child social care. and at this time of rising demand, nurse numbers are falling, gp numbers are falling, health visitor numbers are falling, and there are 10,000 vacancies for doctors in our national health service. under the last labour government, the nhs budgets averaged an increase of 6% a year. that has been slashed to just 1.4% under this government. the health foundation says the government's much heralded extra money for the national health service is, "simply not enough" while the ifs says funding at this level will only maintain current levels. and let's remember what the current levels a re levels. and let's remember what the current levels are in the nhs. record waiting times in accident and emergency. i think we know better, i

will not want to catch it again. seriously those of you might think halloween is fought screaming but it is not what i want to hear in this chamber. 4.3 million people on national health service waiting lists, longer waits to start cancer treatment. we need to go further, which is why, as we pledged in our ma nifesto, which is why, as we pledged in our manifesto, labour will raise taxes to the highest earners to fund an increase above the government's baseline also but mr deputy speaker, it is not only the national health service that is in crisis. defence spending has actually been cut, the size of the army has been cut by a fifth, and whilst we welcome the donation based, whilst we welcome the donation based on the 80 games to commemorate the armistice and 1.7 million more for educational programmes to ensure people learn the horrors of the holocaust, ijoin

with the chancellor in absolutely condemning the horrific and vile anti—semitic and racist attacks that occurred in pittsburgh over the weekend. we stand together with those under threat from the far right hummer wherever it may be, anywhere on this planet. the conservatives used to claim to be the party of law and order also now they can't even maintain law and order in our prisons. assaults at record levels as depleted staff try to cope with a difficult situation. 0ur street are less safe as well with police numbers down, violent crime up and convictions down. chief co nsta bles crime up and convictions down. chief constables are warning that criminals are taking advantage and police officers are having to take the government to court, police officers taking the government to court just to get a pay officers taking the government to courtjust to get a pay rise. after

eight years of austerity, firefighters today are paid £6,700 less tha n firefighters today are paid £6,700 less than they were ten years ago. nurses £4750, teaches £4650. every public sector worker deserves a decent pay rise —— teachers. but 60% of teachers are not getting it. neither are the police, nor the government's own civil service workers. cleaners and security guards in the ministry ofjustice and the department of business is still are not even getting the london living wage. mr deputy speaker, the gap between those at the very top and the rest is not closing, it is growing. the pay of chief executives of our biggest companies rose by 11% this year. paying themselves 145 times more

than the workers in the companies they lead. at the other end of the scale, 6.3 million workers are paid less tha n scale, 6.3 million workers are paid less than the real living wage, up 300,000 in the last year alone. the very lowest earners and insecure workers on zero—hours contracts or short hours contracts will not benefit from the increase in the threshold and they are the very people being punished ryder cups still hard—wired people being punished ryder cups still ha rd—wired into people being punished ryder cups still hard—wired into universal credit —— punished by the cuts. the chancellor boasts of a balanced approach but what is balanced about cutting social security for disabled people or slashing service of the bone —— to the bone? by the end of this bond they were doled out £110 billion in tax giveaways to corporations and the super—rich. meanwhile, in the real world, homelessness has more than doubled,

fewer people able to buy a home, household debt rising, child poverty is up now to over four million and rising. and more disabled people are living in poverty also. farfrom tackling the burning injustices, as the prime ministers said her government was going to do, they have actually made them worse and increased the injustices in our society. the equalities and human rights commission warned just last week that britain is becoming a two speed society come all right for the richest few and failing the many. this government is harsh on the weak and feeble with the strong. they label good people scroungers and sky bet while they impose punitive sanctions, demeaning assessment and a benefit freeze, none of which has been reversed today. the universal credit is causing increases in property, food bag use rent arrears and homelessness. when even the work

and homelessness. when even the work and pensions secretary admits that some people will be worse off and the architect ed universal credit says the system is underfunded, it was inevitable the chancellor would have to act although he is only reversing barely half the cuts made. however, the problems of universal credit are also structural, harming the self employed, lone parents, people with larger families and survivors of domestic abuse. that is why we believe the roll—out must be halted immediately. mr deputy speaker, since 2010, 86% of the cuts through tax and benefit measures have come from women. and there was not even recognition, let alone money set aside, for the women born in the 19505 who have been denied pensionjustice. women in britain today have just one fifth of the

pension wealth of men, in part because of the grotesque gender pay gap which, at current rates, will not close until 2073. and there was not close until 2073. and there was no extra money to fund women's refuges, a lifeline for women fleeing from domestic abuse. since 2010, almost one fifth of all refuges have been forced to close. mr deputy speaker, months after the scale of the windrush scandal became clear, the chancellor has failed to set upa clear, the chancellor has failed to set up a hardship fund for those affected, let alone the compensation scheme for the hundreds of people wronged by the prime minister's nasty and perverse hostile environment. we heard no guarantees for old people. free tv licences for the over 755 remain at risks by the government that threatened to tear up

government that threatened to tear up the triple lock, take away the winter fuel allowance and force people in need to pay for care at home. mr deputy speaker, a country that fails its young people, is failing its own future. schools funding per pupil has been cut by 8%. the college budget has been slashed and to a dummett skills budget has been hacked by 45%. —— adult. and there are 12,000 children in this country, living in temporary accommodation. causing them unbelievable levels of stress and uncertainty, and consequently often underachievement in schools. children's services face a 2 billion funding gap. we now have the highest number of children being taken into ca re number of children being taken into care since 1985. last saturday, i visited north city children's

sevenmph norwich. threatened with closure, due to council cuts. —— centre. with too many children in sure start centres already closed the userses of that wonderful centre we re very the userses of that wonderful centre were very frightened of their future because they had benefitted like so many others have in so many other parts of the country for the great achievement of the last labour government which was children's centres and the sure start initiative. spending on youth services has fallen by 62%. 600 youth centres have closed. there are 3500 fewer youth workers. the uk, mr deputy speaker, is the only major global economy in which investment is falling. uk business investment is falling. uk business investment is the lowest in the g7, this failure to invest means britain's productivity is 15% lower than major economies. public sector investment is over 18 billion lower than it was

in 2010. intrin the most regionally unequal country in europe, with six of the ten poorest regions in northern europe in this country. the government reinforces these disparity, let us take an example. when it comes to transport funding, the north 5 2500 less per person than london. well, people in the midlands get 1900 less, so much for the northern powerhouse and the midlands engine. local economies are also struggling mr deputy speaker. 0ver local economies are also struggling mr deputy speaker. over 100,000 mr deputy speaker. 0ver100,000 retailjobs mr deputy speaker. 0ver100,000 retail jobs have been mr deputy speaker. 0ver100,000 retailjobs have been lost in the last three years. there are 25,000 boarded up premises across britain, a visit to many of our high streets is to see roller blind shutters on shops that have been closed because ofjob shops that have been closed because of job losses shops that have been closed because ofjob losses and the problems they face, the chancellor's business rate

announcement today only unpicks his own disastrous reevaluation last year, and the chancellor has again delayed slashing the maximum stake on fixed 0dds betting terminal, but he will not solve the crisis on the high street until he firstly tackles the tack avoidance of online retailer, hiss digital a tax is too little too late. secondly the chancellor must tackle the levels of household debt, driven by low wages. high streets won't thrive until people have money to spend. so we hope he will endorse our call for the minimum wage to be a real living wage, of at least £10 an hour, by 2020, and removing the discriminatory youth rates from the system.

mr deputy speaker, this chancellor has again failed to back labour's plan to create a national investment bank, with regional development banks. today's announcement on broadband investment is a very small step but britain ranks 35th in the global rankings of broadband speeds. currently just 2% of global rankings of broadband speeds. currentlyjust 2% of uk premises have full fibre broadband compared to 80%? spain and 100% in south korea. this government still lacks any meaningful strategy for creating high skilljobs in every region and nation, and failing abysmally to invest in the industries of the future. necessary to tackle climate change. the ipcc report this month was clearly on the consequences. we can only avoid climate catastrophe if we act now. the government's response has been to cut support for

our solar industry, losing 12,000 jobs in the process, slash the building of onoff wind. cud subsidies for electric vehicle, sell off the investment bank and the back fracking in the face of overwhelming local and scientific opposition. ten yea rs local and scientific opposition. ten years ago, it was a labour government that passed the climate change act. world leading legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissionings by 80% by 2050. this government is not each on target to do that. clean energy investment fell 56% last year and the uk produces less of energy from renewa bles produces less of energy from renewables than germany, spain, france or italy. this government is, i believe mr deputy speaker, failing to protect our environment, and in doing so failing to protect all of our futures. the extra 500 million announced today, to help the government cope with brexit, is not about planning, but about panic. and

that panic is very deep—rooted. yesterday, the chancellor said another budget would be necessary to set out a new economic strategy, in the event of a no—deal brexit. there morning the prime minister said all the spending commitments are funded irrespective of a deal. it is very clear, mr speaker, if they can't agree a good deal with the eu, it is because they can't agree a deal among themselves, in the cabinet or in the tory party. so, as we approach the crucial stage of the government's bungled brexit negotiations, we face a choice, about the sort of economy we want. some on the benches opposite fantasise some on the benches opposite fa ntasise about taking some on the benches opposite fantasise about taking britain down the road and path to being a singapore style tax haven, with race to the bo bottom in rights and

protections. that must be rejected outright. what we need is an active government that will invest in our people, in every region, and every nation of our country. that will use the wealth we create to fund world class public services. what is needed mr deputy speaker, is a real break with austerity, and a government committed to raising investment, across the board, to rebuild our economy, communities the and public services, that is a trott and public services, that is a trott a country that could work for all. —— a route. austerity is not over, and the quicks fixes we have heard today do not begin to measure up to the scale of the job that needs to be done to rebuild britain. studio: and that was the leader of the opposition jeremy studio: and that was the leader of the 0ppositionjeremy corbyn's response to the budget. let us remind you of some of the main

measures that the chancellor announced today and then we can talk about them. of course, the biggest for many people will be the increase in thresholds due to happen in april 2020, he has brought that forward to april 2019. he has put in a lot more money into universal credit to try an smooth the transition and make the taper as you eastern an extra pound how much you get to keep, he is trying to help the people keep more, he has announced some extra money, 2 billion out of the 20 billion for the nhs will go to extra services for mental health. and he managed to find another billion for defence, on top of the several hundred million that he had found before. 0n pfi, that controversial finance agreement mainly dope under the last labour government. he said he hadn't signed one himself and he didn't intend to do so as chancellor and he thought they would be established for future projects. another 400 million cash to schools

in england. he announced a new digital services tax, the oecd and the eu have been talking about this, progress has been passing slow so the chancellor has decided to move ahead. 0ther the chancellor has decided to move ahead. other countries have acted too, britain the biggest one, doesn't bring in that much money but it's the start of a new turn over tax, on these digital service, and then business rates to help retailers in the high street, confined to england in this case, the money for the rest of the country is decided by the local parliaments and assemblies there, that will be cut by one third over the next two years because these retailers are struggling as the high street declines. what is your overall impression of this?|j street declines. what is your overall impression of this? i think there are, there is something very interesting in there that the government is trying to do. first off expensive sticking plasters for problems that are there right now. universal credit? a bit of sticking plaster, cash for school budgets

more money for potholes than schools but there bits and pieces that will come now. what is more interesting and where today could mark now, is this is a promise for the first time in years, that government spending on average across government departments will start going up again, we have had since the coalition in 2010, years when government spending on average across departments. it has been patchy, has gone down an down but overail, what philip hammond is saying he wants to reverse that next year, if you like, the tories want to pull off a politicalfeat, which would be to reverse the political pendulum and try to get spending going back up again under a conservative government. whether the public is ready to be convinced of that, whether that matches up with anything like the experience lots of people have round the country of eight years of a spending squeeze, thatis eight years of a spending squeeze, that is a bigger question, but i never thought i would hear philip hammond deliver a budget that the obr hammond deliver a budget that the

0br says will increase the deficit. indeed. we will come to that in a minute. simon, then kamal. so give aways to business, they are allowed to invest up to 1 aways to business, they are allowed to invest up toi million in tax free in. you can put up to a million without being taxed on that. that is good. there is new rules for people who use personal service companies in the private sector, they are sin hetically employed. they are going to have to pay more tax, there will be 2.9 billion on some of the self—employed. on the digital tax, he said yes he will do it but it is not coming in until 2020 by which time the oecd will have come up with their proposals so it may never see their proposals so it may never see the light of day but he created a backstop for the uk. he has put a marker down. stimulative budget. the obr in their official report says the budget spends the fiscal windfall rather than saving it. that is the key. he has more hedge room

given by the better public finances, and rather than save that are, rather than save that for brexit problems maybe ahead, rather than save that for possible other global economic problems, philip hammond has decided to spend that all up front, i have not seen such a wide range of spending commitments in total policy decisions, since we have been doing the budget, they are really significant. total spending decision £30 billion by 2023/24. very little movement on tax, so this is incredibly stimulative budget. as laura says for the point of difference now, between what the conservatives told us about being the prudent government that would only do what they were able to do in terms of a spending, had been changed remarkably and they have put this notion that we will stimulate the economy and increase public spending now and allow the deficit to rise slightly and to keep borrowing at round £20 billion a year, little talk here of balancing

the books, it looks like they will leave it there at that kind of level. i need to move oner we have the chief secretary to treasury, i think we are losing you kamal. we are,| think we are losing you kamal. we are, i have to whizz off and do some other broadcasting. are, i have to whizz off and do some other broadcastinglj are, i have to whizz off and do some other broadcasting. i can't believe what is more important than this broadcasting but you the economic editor. liz truss is with us. can i just get one thing clear right from the start, the spending decisions, announced today, which accumulate to announced today, which accumulate to an extra £30 billion in spending by 2023/24, that stands whether or not we get a deal on brexit? it does. absolutely. even a no deal. even if no deal in any situation, those spending decisions stand. we made those decisions because of the good work we have done, in getting the economy going, we have got the

lowest unemployment since 1975, we are seeing increased tax receipts, which is what is enabling us to spend this extra money and by the way give the public tax cut, that is what has enabled us to do that, that is true regardless of the type of deal we get. the 0br forecast is based on a moderate deal and we want to exceed that on the up side, that is our intention but this budget stands regardless. so why did the chancellor say on sunday, that if there was no deal, he would have to revise his forecast? well, what he said is if there was no deal, then we would need a new economic strategy to deal with that economic reality and that could include all kinds of thing, it could include a fiscal stimulus, further supply reform, regulatory and tax changes, we would need do that in a no deal scenario and the cabinet discussed

that, that is our game plan if you like if we get to that situation. so no deal you would run a bigger deficit? this potentially. we still have cash in the locker, it is important to understand we have £15 billion of head room which is exactly what we had at the spring statement but the real change is the fact that tax reve nu es real change is the fact that tax revenues have come in higher, enabling us to take those spending and tax decisions. the amount of fiscal headroom remains the same. who knows exactly what type of scenario it will be? it is not a scenario it will be? it is not a scenario we want. we we —— we do want a deal but it made no deal scenario there are a number of tools in our lucky including a monetary policy response which is what the bank of england use . that if the decision of the bank. that's absolutely right, we have an independent bank of england. no deal scenario we would need an

economic strategy. which would be stimulus on top of what was already a highly still it is budget. that depends on exactly what type of no deal scenario we got full so i think we can agree that in a no deal scenario you will not tighten the budget. i would agree that would be unlikely. on that point of agreement, the 0br forecasts are now based on a two—year transition period leaving the eu. that must have been done under advice from the government. that is our base case, the transition period as it is now. no, your base case is 21 months but the obr no, your base case is 21 months but the 0br is now working on two years andi the 0br is now working on two years and i doubt they would be doing that without some guidance from the government. we are looking at a two—year transition period, minimum. well, i would say that is not the case, we are still in negotiations on precisely the issue. the 0br is

in the —— independent forecaster... but it makes consumption is on what it believes to be government will seek —— makes assumptions.” it believes to be government will seek -- makes assumptions. i think you are reading too much into the obr you are reading too much into the 0br forecast. they are a median scenario and what they have to do is get the best estimate of the public finances based on what they believe to be the case. as far as we are concerned in the government, that is not agreed. we need to get further negotiations in place with the eu, thatis negotiations in place with the eu, that is taking place and the prime minister has talked about the alternative to a backstop... there might be more than two years. the transition might be more than two yea rs. transition might be more than two years. i think it is very important that we leave the eu in time and that we leave the eu in time and that we leave the eu in time and that we are able to show british people we are striking this independent trade deals but that is not really central to this. for a

government that has told us now for eight years that it would cut the deficit, get it down, had to balance, and discovered it had a lot more headroom than it thought, why does the deficit rise next year? what we have set is a fiscal target in 21-22... what we have set is a fiscal target in 21-22. .. why does it rise? it goes up by over 6 billion, up to 1.4% of gdp, why? we have looked at the plans over the period to make sure we hit our fiscal target and maintained that fiscal discipline at the same time as the link with immediate issues we have in our public services such as keeping councils sustainable, making sure the nhs... councils sustainable, making sure the nhs. .. but councils sustainable, making sure the nhs... but you never get councils sustainable, making sure the nhs. .. but you never get to councils sustainable, making sure the nhs... but you never get to a balanced budget, that might not be the wrong thing to do but that has been government policy. 0n the wrong thing to do but that has been government policy. on all the projections you never get to it. it is always at least 1% of gdp that we

borrow, correct? one thing the obr is very clear about in their report is very clear about in their report is that we are sticking to all of our fiscal targets. the target that phillip hammond set as chancellor are being stuck to. but you're not balancing the budget. we are getting to the 15 billion headroom which is what we need in 2020... to the 15 billion headroom which is what we need in 2020. .. i've got the projections up to 2024. at no stage do you balance the budget. 0ur aim... it's not your policy any more. it is our policy. why don't you do it? we have fiscal rules to get there but the important thing is that we have turned a corner and that, we are reducing debt as a proportion of gdp every year and we achieved that a year earlier than expected. let me ask you on austerity, are the 7 billion planned welfare cuts coming to an end? the decisions were made in 2015. we have made changes since then... the

chancellor changed the tape rate in 2016, putting 700 million back in. are there still welfare cuts in the pipeline? what universal credit does... i'm not asking about universal credit, i'm asking you if there are welfare cuts... andrew, you need to let you finish the sentence so i can explain the context. the context is universal credit is an entirely different system to before which trapped people in welfare and that a poverty trap in it so we have changed those para meters trap in it so we have changed those parameters so it is very difficult to compare old with new. welfare cuts are still part... austerity is still there. the important change is we have made is that people on universal credit will be getting £630 more, families will be getting £630 more, families will be getting £630 more, families will be getting £630 more a year which will help them get into work, progress in work of art the planned welfare cuts that we re of art the planned welfare cuts that were in the government policy, have been there since the time of

osborne, are they still in the government's plans? what i'm telling you is we have made considerable changes already, making the changes to the tape rate and this year we as a further change, 1.7 billion into the work allowa nces. 1.7 billion into the work allowances. a lot of the changes to universal credit, we have put... people on austerity... people on welfare, austerity has not quite ended, that would seem to be...” would completely disagree with that. what is happening is we have a system where it pays to go into work but we are also helping people out on the lowest incomes with an extra £630. as you know well, you're talking about universal credit and what andrew has been asking about it other welfare freezes and cuts which are still in the budget as far as we can seek with the government having no intention of reversing them doing anything to soften them for many affected. i would like to ask you, giving you have been able to set out

potential increases in government spending from next year, because the obr numbers have changed over a period of a few months, what do you do if they are wrong again? all of these assumptions and a big change in the political pendulum are based on one set of figures that were completely different 12 months ago. it is because the 0br's new forecast is based on real things happening in the economy and tax system. for example, nobody expected that unemployment could get this blow, nobody expected that we could sustain the level of increases in jobs that we have sustained so they simply did not predict that the situation we are in now is possible. likewise with tax revenues, these are real things that are happening, real people injobs are real things that are happening, real people in jobs and are real things that are happening, real people injobs and real tax being paid into the exchequer that has changed and the 0br has acknowledged something that is a real—world change. it has taken a while to catch up with that.” real—world change. it has taken a while to catch up with that. i am told we have to let you go. i'm very

sorry to hear that! you can escape! a final question, there are currently 4 million children living in poverty in this country and one more because of —— 1 million more could find themselves in poverty. they have seen the end of austerity, have they? the changes we are announcing today will mean that families with children on universal credit are seeing a £630 increase in their income. i think that is very significant and what is also important... there's a benefit freeze on tax credits... those children are much less likely to be in workless household than eight yea rs in workless household than eight years ago and we know that is very important. most children in poverty are actually in households where one person is working. and that is why we are raising the living wage and the amount available on universal credit. i am concerned about it, thatis credit. i am concerned about it, that is why we are taking this

action. i'm sorry, i got so many more things to ask you that maybe you will come back and see us.” would be delighted to. before six o'clock! you can come straight back! we will say goodbye to the lady in red. let's go to pauljohnson who has been monitoring this and has had a chance to go through the red book where all the details are. what is jumping out at you? the first thing is what is not there and that is that we don't have a fixed spending review total which the chancellor promised us in the spring statement. all the numbers for spending other than for the nhs going forward are just pencilled in as assumptions rather than as spending review total. the second thing is that if you look a few years out there is about 30 billion of additional spending, almost all of which is on the nhs so not a lot of additional

money for other public services actually committed to. if you look at the assumptions that are there, broadly speaking, other public servers are going to be flat in total and that means presumably some will gaina total and that means presumably some will gain a bit and some will lose a bit. arguably, he hasjust about got to the minimal definition of ending austerity but it is certainly nothing like a bonanza for the rest of the public services and, as you suggested, most of those planned welfare cuts are still on the books. it isa welfare cuts are still on the books. it is a significant increase to the generosity of the unibet —— universal credit that there are plenty of other cuts coming through. when the chancellor says that over the next spending period, the next five years, our departmental spending overall will rise by about 1.2% in real terms compared to the two previous five—year periods, most of that goes to the nhs and

therefore, although some departments might do quite well, others will continue to lose out. the growth is entirely on these numbers in the nhs. if the nhs was flat then the overall total would just be flat. there is no extra money for other departments. that said, they are not being cut and remember we have come through eight years of significant cuts in those departments so it is better than it has been but hardly lots of money. the only real area with really significant additional money is the nhs and, as the chancellor said, we knew about that in the summer. the queue, we will try to come back to you before the end of the programme —— thank you. we do now go over to elizabeth in central london. thank you, we will be drilling down into a bit of the detail of how this impacts on

individuals and businesses, going back to sarah pennells, our personal finance expert and author we can go to the city to speak to a uk equities fund manager at schroders. what jumped out for you ? equities fund manager at schroders. whatjumped out for you? perhaps the personal tax allowance, maybe fuel duty? i think it is the personal allowa nce, duty? i think it is the personal allowance, increasingly chancellor 's seem to deliver budget with one eye on the newspaper headlines and philip hammond has done that. we we re philip hammond has done that. we were expecting there to be an increase in the personal allowance a nyway increase in the personal allowance anyway next april, currently you can earn £11,850 before you paid tax and that will go up by a few hundred pounds in april and up to 12,500 in april 2020 but it is all happening in one big leap next april and that will be £130 extra per year for basic rate taxpayers. that isjust over £2 a basic rate taxpayers. that isjust over£2a week basic rate taxpayers. that isjust over £2 a week and i'm not sure that is enough for people to feel that

austerity is over. the other big announcements were the ones discussed already on universal credit which i think has raised a lot of questions. people have been really worried about how it has been brought in both in terms of its structure but also how the system has been working or indeed not. 1 billion extra over five years and this change to work allowance. universal credit is very complicated but it means people will be able to earn a bit more and keep £1000 a year extra in their work allowance. let's head over to the city. looking at business, a lot on business in this budget. 0ne at business, a lot on business in this budget. one of the eye—catching things was the uk additional services tax that was meant to come in in 2020. what kind of impact is that likely to have? i think it is interesting that it has been talked

about and initiated now. it might be ove rta ke n by about and initiated now. it might be overtaken by measures brought in by the oecd but i think it is making action from what has been talked about in previous years and it is seizing the initiative. it is very much about digital services, not a digital sales tax. consumers should not see an impact on pricing for digital services. and one of the other eye—catching things from this budget was the end of pfi. how do you think that will be received in the city? i think it is interesting for two reasons in that hammett has committed not to do any more pfi but he has also committed not to stop or ta ke he has also committed not to stop or take back those pfis that are already in existence. he has recognised contract law and that is important for uk businesses seen from an international perspective.

thank you very much for now. if you wa nt to thank you very much for now. if you want to get in touch this afternoon, you can still do that. you can e—mail us on this e—mail or tweak us. and you can also text us. andrew. thank you elizabeth. laura and simon, i remember george osborne before the referendum, threatened almost a punishment budget if the country almost a punishment budget if the cou ntry voted almost a punishment budget if the country voted to leave, of course it never materialised, because the opposite was required, and now the government is saying, is implying, if we, if we come out on no deal, we will have to be even more loose on monetary and fiscal policy. that is is right. it was interesting liz truss saying the head room is the same. the government has the same amount of money tucked away as last

year, that is only 15 billion. if there were to be a sort of chaotic disorderly crash, certainly wonder whether 15 billion would be enough. the lever would say we will have another 39 billion. i am not sure thatis another 39 billion. i am not sure that is true, but that is what they would say. there would be the capacity to borrow more as well as having that money put away, i think this could be and the government wa nts this could be and the government wants us to think this is a big change of direction, we can't under emphasise this works on the business the obr emphasise this works on the business the 0br has its numbers right, which they so often have not. we will speak to them in a moment and it works on the basis of an aion of a middle of the road brexit deal with a two—year transition. philip hammond hardly mentioned brexit. there was an extra 500 million in the kitty in the cookie jar, if we need it but you are right, he had an opportunity to put a lot more money, keepa

opportunity to put a lot more money, keep a lot more firepower for that an as you rightly say the obr have assumed a sort of smoothish brexit, they did some work on saying we have had a look at doing other things but it is hard to imagine. the only thing they pointed so as something as big as brexit was the three day week in 1974 as big as brexit was the three day week in1974 and as big as brexit was the three day week in 1974 and they said that was the loosest and the thing they could point to. but even that wasn't a perfect replica. so is there not point to. but even that wasn't a perfect replicam is there not a danger for the conservatives that in a sense, this is, this has been part ofa a sense, this is, this has been part of a process but this budget may be the biggest step, they kind of moved on the labour territory now. they are saying if there is fiscal leeway, if there is room to move, we are going to add to public spending. not look for other ways of cutting taxes. absolutely right and be content also to basically allow the credit card bill to roll over and roll over as long as it is not as

scarily enormous as it used to be, and time and time again we have seen theresa may go for things that sound labourfriendly, whether theresa may go for things that sound labour friendly, whether that is trying to put worker on company boards or scrapping new pfi contracts very friendly hay hope to labour ear, that is what theresa may is tries to do, beyond brexit, is position herself as a conservative prime minister the centre ground. whether she has hope of succeeding, but that is what her project is trying to prove. let me welcome robert chote, the head of the office for budget responsibility, thanks for budget responsibility, thanks for joining, for budget responsibility, thanks forjoining, let me come straight to the point. why do you keep getting your deficit forecast wrong? in this case the estimate of the deficit for the previous year has been revised down since the numbers we were working on in march, then there has been a bigger improvementment between the first half of the last

and first of this one. what is striking is this has happened across broad sweep of tax, that it has happened at a time when the economy hasn't been performing on the initial figures hasn't been performing on the initialfigures as hasn't been performing on the initial figures as strongly as anticipated. we brought our growth forecast for 2018 down a little. why did do you that today? that is smoesly down to the impact of the severe weather in the first quarter of the year which has an effect on the full year total. 0ver of the year which has an effect on the full year total. over the full five years we are a little more optimistic ability growth. you are talking about 1.5%ish on either side. i can't think of a period, you know, in british post—war history when we have only had a sort of five yea rs of when we have only had a sort of five years of 1.5%. when we have only had a sort of five years of1.5%. exactly. when we have only had a sort of five years of 1.5%. exactly. this is seven sally a continuation of the famous productive puzzle which has been a... you and everybody else since the financial crisis, we assume the productive growth and therefore the trend under lying growth of the economy will pick up over this period but as you say to a

level that looks unspectacular by the stan towards of past recoveries we can remember. —— stan cards. the stan towards of past recoveries we can remember. -- stan cards. your forecasts are based on a two—year brexit transition. yes, we basically incorporated the transition period that was in the draft agreement back in march, but that makes very little difference to the growth impact. it changes our import and export forecasts in a way that off sets each other but the key point here is as you were just discussing, we are assuming there is an orderly exit in the string of next year into whatever new world we are in. if you have a disorderly exit that the is a different story s let me take the orderly exit first of all. because the chancellor's kind of implying, i don't think it is in your forecast, or in your calculation, but he is implying if there is an orderly brexit, that there is more of this to come, that there is a brexit dividend, do you see that? well he seems to be looking at this in to

way, he says there could be a brexit dividend, in once there is a deal done the economy could perform better as a direct consequence, which would have imme casings for the public finance, that isable po. —— implication, if the most likely element is a lot of pent up business investment takes place, that is not very good for the public finances because we allow against investment in the tax system rather than it generating more revenue, so i am not sure you get much from that source. you get future growth though. business investment has held off during the uncertainty. but that is more likely to have an impact of beyond the four year horizon. the other element of his deal dividend seemed to be this idea that at the moment he has about 15 billion in the locker, against his fiscal mandate and that he could spend some of that, if, if there is a relatively favourable outcome. the question is what weight is the

government putting on that particular near term target, versus its longer term objective, which is in the red book, in the legislation of balancing the budget by 2025. he doesn't have any room for manoeuvre against that, indeed he doesn't look as if he is on course to achieve it. you say sit in the red book but on the forecast, we don't get the balance. no, no, the objective is in the red book, but on average. balance. no, no, the objective is in the red book, but on averagem balance. no, no, the objective is in the red book, but on average. it is not in the forecast if he had done nothing in this budget the underlying improvement we think would have got him to the balanced budget p so she chose knots to balance the budget, which has been the long—term object thetive of the government, and chose instead, to spend more? exactly. 0rwell in government, and chose instead, to spend more? exactly. 0r well in a accepts the prime minister chose backin accepts the prime minister chose back in june to accepts the prime minister chose back injune to spend more, so that... you get my point. this time la st that... you get my point. this time last year, you radically downgraded the performance of your, you know, hmmfi

the performance of your, you know, forecast the performance of the uk in its productive terms and as said it won't, we have waited years for it won't, we have waited years for it to get back to its trend. we have given up and say this is where we are now, are you saying now with these forecasts that you think it is going to be bitter than that we are going to be bitter than that we are going to be bitter than that we are going to get a bit more productive? no thejudgment going to get a bit more productive? no the judgment is basically the same same as we made back in march. it is scientific only up tow a point, people are weighting this big change performance from before the crisis to after it and we are assuming that you are some way between the two of those, the longer the weak performance goes on the more weights you put o that, the reason we are slightly more optimistic about growth over these five years is is not productive, we have lowered our estimate of the rate of unemployment the economy can sustain and we think there more hiring labour participation, but it's a relatively small change compared to the huge shortfall, if that productive performance prior to the crisis continued. you seem to be singing from the same song sheet as

the bank of england in that you are seeing real growth in wages coming up. we do, i think the bank of england is more optimistic than we are on wage growth, parly because they are more optimistic than we are on productive growth and they see wages rising more quickly, relative to productive growth which delivers unit labour cost increases so we are wea k unit labour cost increases so we are weak on that, the chancellor said we have real wages growing over this period. in spring, you told us the deficit would be about 37 billion. it is round 25 or 26 billion, next year you tell us it will be 1.4% of gdp, how can i trust you this time? as we say, don't. look at how these forecasts have performed in the past, the key point is that as when we have had the changes in the past, you can, you know, gain one time and you can, you know, gain one time and you lose the next time round. you seem to be losing, out of 18 forecast, 15 were wrong. they would be all wrong on the basis they are

central estimates and they come out different. this is a average size change, the point point is to policy has to be robust to the knowledge that things can turn out in the future, you need to think about how things could turn out differently, not betting the farm on any particular economic forecast turning out to be correct. that wouldn't be sensible. another quick question, in the event of no deal, in the event that, i mean there are two different kinds of no deal. let us keep it to no dealfor the moment. how much far apart to does the chancellor have to step in and underpin the economy? well, i mean it wouldn'tjust be, if the question was about what would you do to increase demand, there are things that the bank of england can do, and the chancellor could borrow more money if that was necessary, i think what the the bank of england has highlighted is one of the difficulties if you did have a disorderly exit, is that not only the amount of demand, the amount of spending in the economy would be

lower but so would supply capacity. because of the supply chain. . exactly. that makes it a much more challenging decision, as to whether you can stimulate the economy that much more, without running into more difficulty. have you modelled no deal? we haven't. i think the difficulty is it is very hard to come up with precedents to say things similar in the past. let us know when you do, we would like to be the first to hear. let us go to vicki young on college green, just across the road from the houses of parliament. we will pick up on so pose this ideas, if he had done nothing he could have balanced the books but instead she has chosen to spend more. iamjoined by books but instead she has chosen to spend more. iam joined by the leader of the liberal democrats vince cable and for the snp kirsty blackman. you wanted the chancellor to spend more, to loosen the purse strings, you pleased with what he had done? there are a few useful

thing, nothing like adequate to deal with the pressures but if you look to the longer term, he is talking about 1% increase, in the next spending round, in current spending, imean, spending round, in current spending, i mean, wouldn't take account of salaries and pensions, the public just aren't going to see it, so we have had a few minor useful thing, potholes and schools and police, small amounts of money, but nothing very substantial and if you take the big ticket item, the substantial amount of money, the 1.7 billion they are putting into universal credit, two years ago they took 3 billion out, so we are in a worse position than we were before, and poor people will feel that. kirsty blackman, your party was talking about universal credit, saying you wa nted about universal credit, saying you wanted more money put in, he has changed the taper so people will keep more of their own money, he is trying to smooth that transition. he hasn't lifted the benefits freeze, he hasn't taken away the two child

cap. he hasn't made universal credit fit for purpose. he hasn't made the difference we need the see. this is on the back of a decade of wage stagnation, so many years of austerity so what he has done today does not help those things, we still have the problem people have been poorer for the past ten years and then we have the problem we have brexit coming down the track and how much poorer brexit will make us as well. so actually, he hasn't helped at all. when it comes to the raising of the personal allowance, that is something that the liberal democrats have wa nted something that the liberal democrats have wanted for, he is doing it a year early, do you welcome that? have wanted for, he is doing it a year early, do you welcome that7m principle it is a good move but it has to balanced against other priorities and to be frank in the longer term, if we are going to get better public services there will have to be high levels of tax and the government has just ducked that. the personal allowances was a good policy helped working families through the difficult years and something the liberal democrats pushed for. how concerned are you then, you talked about brexit there,

philip hammond today talked about a brexit dividend. he didn't. . he talked about a deal dividend which is different. if you look at the obr figures they are all predicated on the fact there will be a smooth deal. in fact they seem to be predicated on the 2016 plan, which was a frictionless borders which nobody seems to be saying to any great degree any more. so actually we are probably not going to get the outcome that philip hammond has based all the statements on and we are probably looking at another budget in march or april adds he settinged might happen. in the meantime the chancellor said spending 3.5 billion on preparations for a no deal. that is money that will go down the drain. could have been spent on public service, apart from an abysmal growth forecast, far worse than historically we have had. a lot of that is caused by lack of investment, lack of progress in the economy. when you look at the list

of where he is putting money. defence, school, social care, potholes, the tax rise, it will amount to for some, people will feel think. well, in terms of the overall economy, and in terms of those sectors they are small. small. they are welcome, of course they are, i wouldn't criticise them, in terms of schools, where schools in england, andi schools, where schools in england, and i guess in scotland too are underan and i guess in scotland too are under an enormous amount of pressure, he talked about money for little extras, well it is fundamentals that are under pressure at the moment. he also talked about giving more money to universal credit. do you think he has done enough? it has been under pressure notjust from your party but other backbenchers as well to try to help those who needed the most and surely, he had this windfall from higher tax receipts and he is spending it all. as vince cable said, he has not undone the to universal credit that george osborne

visited upon the system. it was not supposed to be a way to save money but this government has chosen to use it as that is a way to reduce the total benefits package and that means people who are the most vulnerable, who are least able to work, single parents with disabled children for example, they are all worse off than they would have been under the previous systems. thank you very much indeed. the chancellor towards the end of his speech think austerity is coming to an end, discipline will remain and make people will think he is trying to haveit people will think he is trying to have it both ways. the chancellor trying to have it both ways, never seen that before, probably never again! elisabeth it in central london. we will have a look at the impact of this budget on small and medium—size businesses and we can speak to robbie savage who is the director of a construct —— construction firm. and the managing

director of a technology company in the west midlands. ronnie, it is a good budget for construction? there is not enough, there is not enough for construction. i run a consultancy that services the construction industry and there were a numberof points construction industry and there were a number of points the chancellor touched on, one of which was increasing stamp duty threshold for first—time buyers to 500,000. not many first—time buyers can afford to buy homes worth 500,000. there was no mention of planning reforms which we we re no mention of planning reforms which we were hoping to hear more about. that is a big struggle at the moment for the construction industry. as we all know, the uk housing market is struggling, there is a high think that a housing crisis, a target of 300,000 homes to be built a year and as of last year there were just over

180,000 homes built. there are many more homes to be built and he did not talk about that enough for me. fairto not talk about that enough for me. fair to say you are a little underwhelmed. more broadly, how does this fit into how your industry is doing at the moment? what are the problems? one is the skill shortages and the other is a lack of land to build on. i was hoping that the chancellor would talk about supporting the development of brown field sites, for instant, which he did not make any mention of. it did not have enough coverage for us. as a business, we in the tank engineering and environmental assessment to allow the reclamation of brownfield sites, there are not enough site in the moment to build on. there are about 62,000 brownfield site at the moment in the uk, 50% of which is vacant or

derelict sites, many of which are contaminated, which we work on to reclaim and deal with the contamination. we need more support to enable those sites to be viable for development. not as much as you would have liked to have heard. let's go to solihull and ian. you are ina let's go to solihull and ian. you are in a different sort of business and there were quite a lot of initiatives for small and medium—sized businesses. what did you think of the budget?” medium—sized businesses. what did you think of the budget? i thought it was very brave. with a lot of uncertainty in the wind right now with brexit and also what feels like trade was going on with china and the us and how that will impact businesses around the world, he seemed to make some pretty bold decisions in my opinion. to put a bit more money back to the consumer in terms of the tax allowance changes and changes to the

investment allowance, that was welcome. you are quite relieved to hear that the relief for entrepreneurs would stay in place? that is nice. to say it will not get taken that is nice. to say it will not get ta ken away, but that is nice. to say it will not get taken away, but it is difficult to plan as an entrepreneur. you never know from one minute to the next to expect, if you expect people's expect, if you expect people's expect people to put their money on the table, to invest in businesses, the table, to invest in businesses, the one to understand what the predictability is like and what the exit is for them in the future. that isa exit is for them in the future. that is a good thing but the role of the government is to create stability for businesses so they can make decisions about the future. but if you do know what is going to happen, it is difficult for entrepreneurs. iain and roni, thank you. the little snapshot of what small and medium—sized businesses are making of this. thank you donna elizabeth. we are on airfor of this. thank you donna elizabeth.

we are on air for another ten minutes. we're going straight to the house of commons where we are joined by shadow chancellorjohn mcdonnell. let me come straight to some of the issues. as a result of announcements in this budget, public spending will rise by 30 billion, there will be a tax on the tech giants as well and ina number of tax on the tech giants as well and in a number of other areas and he seems to have shot your foxes. not at all! they are certainly on the run and certainly trying to steal some of our agenda but doing it in a way which i think will disappoint people. it was only four weeks ago that the prime minister said this was the end of austerity and it is a real broken promise. we're not seeing the end of austerity and in terms of tax rises, with regard to the internet companies, at the weekend there a report set out, £5 billion worth of tax avoidance by these companies and he is trying to

collect about 400 million in a few yea rs' collect about 400 million in a few years' time. it is pretty pathetic to be honest. what i'm disappointed about is first of all the cuts will go on in terms of the government departments of police and schools and local government does not seem to have at anything. social care, thatis to have at anything. social care, that is not enough with the scale of the cuts that have gone on. the health provision, we have the 20 billion they promised but that is nowhere near enough and the health foundation has made it clear it is not enough. 0verall, foundation has made it clear it is not enough. overall, the promise of ending austerity by the prime minister has certainly been mimicked upon. 20 billion more for health, how much would labour spend? we said, we would inherit whatever baseline we would inherit, we would add to that and that would therefore increased the level that the health experts are suggesting. the proposals of the government, after having the health expenditure at 1.196 having the health expenditure at 1.1% for of years only increases to

3:4... how much 1.1% for of years only increases to 3:4. .. how much would you add? ours would be between four and 5% because we have said whatever base we inherit and add to it with our proposals. where would the money come from? we said at the general election, we have been honest with people... you did not come a 496 rise in health spending. we promised over 296 in health spending. we promised over 2% and that was almost double what the tories promised then we will not inherit their base and on top of that we will put our proposal which will give us the 4—5%. it will come from, we have been straightforward, reversing most of the corporation tax cut including increasing income tax cut including increasing income tax on the top 5% of earners... tax cut including increasing income tax on the top 596 of earners... you have spent all that in the labour ma nifesto. have spent all that in the labour manifesto. that was all accounted for. this spending on health is extra to the labour manifesto. no, you're not listening. what we are saying, whatever base we inherit from the tories, we will still go ahead with our tax proposals and that will give us that additional

money for the health service that we need. we will build upon the race, and all the areas can obviously the baseline we inherit from them. one of the things you say you will do is it is not enough just to end austerity but you will reverse it. are you going to reverse the departmental cuts? if you look at what we said at the election, we put forward a programme of £49 billion worth of investment in our public services and part of that, yes, was about reversing some of the cuts they introduced in education and health and elsewhere. and also tapping the problems within our social security system. what you said ina social security system. what you said in a manifest it was the amount of cuts knew would reverse was very small out of the total 50 billion. you seemed more interested, for example, in reversing middle—class was that like abolishing student tuition fees than doing something for working class welfare which you said nothing about which is the freezing of tax credits. of the 49

billion, 11 billion went on tuition fees and the rest was investment in education, schools, universities... not on day—to—day spending, almost nothing on that. with the greatest respect, we put in 4 billion into tackling... that's it. wait for it, for billion to tackle the problems of social security and in addition, we said the real living wage that would help us build homes and reduce people dependent on housing benefit and we would restore collective—bargaining to raise wages. 0n collective—bargaining to raise wages. on that basis we would have a new social security system but at the same time be lifting people out of dependency on social security because they were getting a real living wage at work. he had produced a document, it is very interesting, because it shows that to reverse cuts over the last eight years would cost about 100 billion and it is not clear where you get that from. your

last manifesto certainly did not tackle that. for example, 17 billion to undo the welfare cuts, is that labour policy? we have identified the scale of cuts on austerity that the scale of cuts on austerity that the government has introduced in the last eight years and we wanted to expose the scale of austerity. what i want to find out is are you going to reverse it. when we get into government, we will publish a new ma nifesto, government, we will publish a new manifesto, it will be fully costed and it will build upon the old one also i think you have to publish the ma nifesto also i think you have to publish the manifesto before you get into government! before the next election. and at the last election we put £49 billion worth of investment in our public services in that manifesto, properly costed. that will be partly reversing old cuts that the tories are introducing and building on it. on welfare, which is predicted for working—class people are still about 5 billion in cuts to come and there is 17 billion to undo. it is a simple question because the rhetoric is there but

will you commit to doing that? what we will do is we will publish a new ma nifesto we will do is we will publish a new manifesto that will be fully costed and build upon what we did in the last one of tackling social security system, lifting people out of poverty so they make a real living wage and at the same time in other areas like housing, making sure people have the benefit, dependency on benefit removed by having decent homes. yes, we will be reversing austerity in full. come the election, we will come back and ask you these questions again. thank you very much. a final thought in our final couple of minutes. simon. he is running a budget public sick net borrowing for 20 bling pounds deficit as far as the eye can see, the first 0nap right not to bring that down. that was an article of faith with every chancellor and it seems he has lost that. for the tories, theresa may and philip hammond want us to see today as the start of a change in direction, the

pendulum swinging away from the path that george osborne and david cameron stuck to for many years. based on two huge ifs. if the obr better at forecasting than they have been recently and does brexit work out in the way they hope it will? they don't have control over those things therefore they can't really control what we do. it does change the terms of the debate in british politics and in that case it is a watershed. it might prove to be that way but we can't tell that until we know in the coming months what events will happen. and until brexit. thank you both, we will leave it there, that is the end of this bbc budget special on the 20 tea m this bbc budget special on the 20 team budget on the day when it seemed the conservative government decided that more public spending was more important than balancing the budget or cutting taxes. thank you for being with us throughout this evening. there will be all sorts of coverage on the budget tonight. the last budget before brexit. the chancellor says the era

of austerity is coming to an end and says millions will pay less tax from next year. philip hammond calls it a budget for britain's future as he announces more money for universal credit, social care, the nhs and schools. now we have reached a defining moment on this long, hard journey. opening a new chapter in our country's economic history where we can look confidently to the future. mr deputy speaker, the reality is that whatever the chancellor claims today, austerity is not over. the chancellor also unveiled what he called a tax cut for 32 million people, with a rise in tax—free personal allowances from next april — a year earlier than promised. but with accusations from labour of half measures and quick fixes, we'll be looking in detail at what it