the big winner of the budget is the nhs — says a leading think tank — but warns yesterday's budget may be a gamble with the public finances. the insitute for fiscal studies also says that more than 2 million families on universal credit — the new flagship benefit — will be hundreds of pounds better off a year but some public services will continue feeling the squeeze. the big winner yesterday was the health service, per other public services there wasn't much extra money at all. we might be at the end of cuts but were not going to be offsetting the cuts that happened over the next 7—8 years. if i was a prison governor, headteacher, running a local authority i wouldn't be raking out the champagne just yet. we'll looking at the latest analysis. also this lunchtime.... germany‘s worst post— war serial killer — a nurse admits being responsible for the deaths of 100 patients in his care. forensic teams start digging up a garden in the west midlands 32 years after estate agent suzy lamplugh went missing in london. nato carries out its largest exercise since the end of the cold war with drills taking

place from iceland to the baltic. and welly—wanging in new zealand as meghan takes on her husband... and wins. in sport on bbc news, england captain steph houghton could earn her 100th cap after being named alongside three uncapped players the squad for next month's friendlies with austria and sweden. good afternoon and welcome to the bbc news at one. the leading think tank, the institute for fiscal studies, says it believes yesterday's budget is a gamble with the public finances and the chancellor may have to borrow more in future. after analysing the figures, the independent research group says the big winner of the budget is the nhs but other public services

will continue to feel the squeeze. the ifs also highlighted big gains for two and a half million families on the government's new flagship benefit — universal credit. some will be £600 better off a year. 0ur political correspondent leila nathoo reports. 0ut out on the factory floor this morning the chancellor philip hammond keen to hear how yesterday's budget has been received. he's lifted the brakes on public spending, insisting pure households will feel the greatest effect. looking at the whole package of measures we delivered yesterday, not just personal income tax cuts but all the other measures and you analyse how they affect people across the income scale, its people at the bottom end of the income scale that benefit the most and the analysis clearly shows that. out of his red box came more money for the health service, defence and for

those universal credit. he needed to fulfil the promise of his downing street neighbour. the prime minister this morning in norway maintaining a new economic era was approaching. what we saw in the budget yesterday was yes, austerity is coming to an end, what those that mean? we will continue to ensure that falls and give more support to our public services and we'll set out at new approach in the spending review next year. but austerity coming to an end isn't just about more year. but austerity coming to an end isn'tjust about more money into public services, it's about more money in people's pockets as well. the budget yesterday was an attempt to reach of the dividing lines in westminster, to reposition conservative economic strategy. labour have dismissed the claim that are truly heralded the end of the squeeze. it wasn't even a start. as isaid, key squeeze. it wasn't even a start. as i said, key areas of public services like schools, police, local governor, nothing for local government. it's not the end of austerity but then, the departmental budgets come he said there will be

protected, old, some well, others will get vigour cuts. and speaking to the bbc ahead of independent research institute said this. the big winner yesterday was the health service, per other public services there wasn't much extra money at all, we might be at the end of cuts but we are not going to be offsetting the cuts that have happened over the last 7—8 years. if i was happened over the last 7—8 years. if iwasa happened over the last 7—8 years. if i was a prison governor, headteacher, running a local authority, i would headteacher, running a local authority, iwould not headteacher, running a local authority, i would not be breaking out the champagne just yet. the government has loosened the purse strings but the forecasts in this budget as soon a smooth brexit and if no deal is done, they would need to bea if no deal is done, they would need to be a whole new set of economic plans. ina to be a whole new set of economic plans. in a moment we will speak to norman smith in westminster. but first... 0ur economics correspondent andy verity is in central london — he's been at a post—budget briefing by the institute for fiscal studies... for ten years now we've heard how

the government's main economic goal is to reduce the deficit, the overspend, and the aim was to try to eliminate loss of sound, here in the building behind me has been saying, is that any idea that the chancellor is going to do that by the mid—2020s is going to do that by the mid—2020s is surely for the birds. i could. also looking at what they mentioned in the headlines, nhs spending growing by 3.4% the year, put that in perspective, the average growth for the recent squeeze was 3.7% a year, it's only going to keep up with demand. look at those people the chancellor is giving money to, those on universal credit, two and a half million families who will be on average £600 a year that of, that rows back on the cuts made in 2015 which were even deeper than that. even though they are better off than we expected them to beat last year they are still worse off than we expected them to be three years ago,

as for tax cuts, the average high rate taxpayer, £176 better for rate taxpayer, £176 betterfor the year, the basic rate taxpayer, £24 a year. although there are games for households, 30 million of them, they are not necessarily evenly spread. thank you. 0ur assistant political editor norman smith is at westminster a lot of talk about whether this budget is just preparing the way for a general election. there is a widespread consensus at westminster that philip hammond is a bit corned beef then it comes to politics, fine at the numbers, not so politics, fine at the numbers, not so good at the politics but the budget yesterday was all about the politics, he basically abandoned his party's politics, he basically abandoned his pa rty's long—standing politics, he basically abandoned his party's long—standing commitment to eliminate the deficit and instead made this audacious attempt to reposition the tories as the party who having overseen eight years of posterity at now the party to ease off and end us to retreat. there is an argument about how far he's actually gone, particularly after he conceded this morning that because

so conceded this morning that because so much money is going to the nhs, other apart runs like a local government, police, schools, they are going to get a flat zero rate increase. in other words, those services which millions of people depend upon, spending on them is still going to be tightly constrained so for them, it will feel like austerity is still rumbling along. but significantly, mr hammond has doused down some of the austerities flash points, so more cash for social care, more cash to ease in universal credit, more cash for defence and crucially, the early tax cut for 31 million people. as you say, to some people, in the labour party, that looks suspiciously like a general election budget. but brenda from bristol, if you are watching, panic the knot, mrs may has promised this morning she is not going to call another early snap election. norman smith

and andy verity, thank you both. so how is the chancellor's budget being received now that the details are becoming clearer? 0ur correspondent victoria fritz has been finding out in sheffield. amidst the shops and offices is a city regenerating. sheffield's winter garden may be a refuge as the days grow colder but did the chancellor do enough to prevent a chill spreading through the business community? categorically no, but it's a start. the business rate savings is saving me £900 a month, i'll be investing that into two part—time staff, it's a start but retailers have to start helping themselves. it's nice to know the government are waking up to the long—term issues but it's been a long time coming. this really helps, in the last 12 months we've invested £850,000 in new manufacturing machinery, we have bigger plans for next year. what this is liable to do means the longer term plans will be pulled forward to 2020 to take advantage

of the capital allowances. the prime minister promised an end to austerity. for students here the budget hasn't heralded a new age just yet. i guess you can't say really until you actually know and see the result. i was born in 1997, my living memory is of, you know, financial uncertainty in the uk. in terms of austerity, i have to see it to believe it quite frankly. i've sadly grown up and lived with a disabled mother and our incomes have been slashed and it's got to the point of relying on other resources and other people, until they are concrete results i do not believe a thing he says. who are the real winners in this budget? the resolution foundation argues it could be higher earners. the chancellor has announced fairly substantial tax cuts happening this april and running into future years. the big winners from those cuts are higher earning and higher income families, 90% of the benefit of those tax cuts will go to the top half of income distribution and half will go to the top 10% of families.

all spending plans are based on a smooth exit from the eu and that's something that neither the prime minister nor the chancellor can guarantee at this time. there was barely any mention of the elephant in the room, but without a deal on brexit, it could be back to the drawing board for spreadsheet phil. victoria fritz, bbc news. and you can find out lots more about the budget and you can work out how you are affected by going on the budget calculator — that's all at bbc.co.uk/ budget. it's the biggest serial killing case in germany's post war history. 0n the first day of his trial, a 41—year—old male nurse has admitted killing 100 patients in his care. detectives say his motive was to impress colleagues by trying to resuscitate the very patients he had given overdoses to. niels hoegel is already serving a life sentence for the deaths of other patients.

0ur correspondent jenny hill is in berlin. niels hoegel has said from childhood he wanted to become a nurse, just like his grandmother. his patients trusted him with their lives but in a confession which has horrified this country, today he admitted to what are almost unimaginable crimes. targeting the elderly and the vulnerable. hiding his face, post—war germany's most prolific serial killer. niels hogel preyed upon the elderly and infirm. he is now known to have killed more than 100 people, and investigators say we will never really know the true scale of his crimes. hogel found his victims on the wards of two north german hospitals. he systematically administered fatal doses of medication before trying to resuscitate the very patients he had attacked. among the victims,

this man's grandfather. christian told us he wrote to niels hogel in prison to ask why. he just said that he lost the contact of people, to human beings lying there. it was just bodies for him. he was killing everyone he could get. just playing with them, like someone who is using something mechanical, like a computer. he switched the body on and off. in court for the confession, the families of the dead. many had no idea their loved ones were murdered until investigators exhumed their remains. they have accused the hospitals of turning a blind eye to high death rates. by doing so, they say, managers facilitated the murderous ambition of a man whose crimes have shocked this country. perhaps one of the most disturbing

details to emerge from this case is that even when niels hoegel was caught red—handed by a colleague with medication with the patient there was very clear evidence as to what was going on, he was allowed to remain in post for if there are two days during which time he killed another patient. investigations are ongoing intojust how another patient. investigations are ongoing into just how and why he was able to kill with such apparent impunity.jimmy hill in impunity. jimmy hill in berlin, thank you. forensic experts have begun digging up a garden in the west midlands 32 years after the disappearance of the estate agent suzy lamplugh. she went missing in 1986 after going to meet a client in fulham but her body has never been found. the metropolitan police are leading the search at the semi detached house in birmingham which used to belong to the mother of the prime suspect. our home affairs correspondent danny shaw reports. 32 years after she went missing, could this be where suzy lamplugh‘s remains are buried?

at the back of a house in sutton coldfield, specialist police officers are trying to solve one of the country's most notorious murder cases. the owner of the property is not a suspect, but he bought the house from the mother of the man who is. we are associated with the story by default. but it is a possibility — maybe an outside possibility, but there is always a possibility. suzy lamplugh was 25 when she disappeared. the estate agent left her west london office to meet a client known as mr kipper. detectives began a murder enquiry. eight years later, suzy was officially declared dead. the man named by police as the prime suspect was john cannan. he is serving a life sentence for another killing, but has denied murdering suzy and has never been charged. police have excavated other sites in the hunt for her remains, but they have never extensively examined the house they are searching today. certainly we didn't dig up

the garden or search the garden during my reinvestigation, because there was no intelligence or evidence to suggest that john cannan had secreted the body there. suzy lamplugh‘s mother and father set up a trust in their daughter's name to support victims of stalking and violence. both parents have since died, but the organisation lives on. we are obviously very shocked to hear the news. we are really hoping that there is going to be some sort of a resolution and our thoughts are predominantly with the family today. the search in sutton coldfield began after police received new information. but it will be some time before they know if suzy lamplugh‘s body is buried here. danny shaw, bbc news. a book of condolence has been opened at leicester city's king power stadium for people wishing to pay their respects

to those who died in the helicopter crash on saturday. the club's chairman and four other people were killed when the aircraft came down moments after taking off from the pitch. the lawyer for a man accused of murdering two nine—year—old girls has pointed the finger at one of theirfathers, saying police spent 32 years building a case against the wrong man. former roofer russell bishop is on trial for the second time for the 1986 murders of karen hadaway and nicola fellows. 0ur correspondent richard lister is at the old bailey. richard? sophie, the qc spent some time this morning telling thejury sophie, the qc spent some time this morning telling the jury about how he would defend russell bishop over the course of the trial, making clear there is only one person on trial for these clear there is only one person on trialfor these murders, russell bishop. but he said the law allows him to point out any facts which might implicate someone else, and he said he would bring in witnesses to show that at the time the girls went

missing there was someone, you said, very close to them who has no alibi, someone, he said, had made comments after the killing which he said were far more incriminating than anything russell bishop said and someone, he went on to say, had a guilty secret that he had been complicit in the sexual abuse of nicola fellows. he told the jury abuse of nicola fellows. he told the jury that person, i'm afraid, is her father, barry ferllows. —— barry fellows. barry fellows is not on trial but the qc said to the jury that once they had looked at the fa cts , that once they had looked at the facts, they should accept that the police and prosecution had spent 32 yea rs police and prosecution had spent 32 years building a case against the wrong man, and with that he sat down we heard from the first witness, karen hadaway‘s mother michelle. she was very composed as you talked about the events leading up to her daughter's disappearance, but it was clearly a difficult time for her as she spoke about her increasingly

frantic efforts to seek what had happened to her daughter after she came home from school that 0ctober evening 32 years ago. she became quite tearful as she recalled how the police search intensified and how her body was later found. at that point russell bishop appeared to become quite emotional in the dock, wiping away tea rs emotional in the dock, wiping away tears from his eyes. he denies murdering the two girls on the trial continues. it is just at a quarter past one. our top story this lunchtime... the big winner of the budget is the nhs says a leading think—tank — but warns yesterday's budget may be a bit of a gamble with the public finances. and coming up, why one of the most biodiverse places in the world is being destroyed — partly because of our demand for soybeans. coming up on bbc news, england midfielder dele alli says he is excited to see what the future holds after signing a new deal to keep him at tottenham hotspur until 2024. the way some of our food

is produced is devastating the environment and communities — according to a new report by the world wildlife fund. farming is partly responsible — with more land being deforested to meet the global demand for soybeans, a cheap protein used in animal feed. the cerrado savanna in brazil is the size of western europe and one of the most biodiverse places in the world. wwf says that at one point an area of the cerrado the size of greater london was disappearing every two months. 0ur correspondent adina campbell has been to the region to meet some of the people affected. as we make our way through a secluded spot of central brazil, a 12 hour drive away from the country's capital, we come to this remote village. just 46 families are part of the community, descendants of african slaves. the land here is their lifeline,

but more and more is being sold off to meet growing global agriculture needs. this woman, the voice of the community, is worried they could all lose their homes. this is your home? brazil is one of the world's leading soy bean producers, and the uk highly depends on exports, primarily for animalfeed. it's the main source of protein in all ourfood. it has the exact balance of amino acid we need for feeding people and feeding animals. it is the cheapest source of protein we have.

so we have very little time to stop the destruction of cerrado, and we can do it without significant impact on the cost, actually, because there is enough space to expand soy available on already destroyed or converted land. the cerrado is overshadowed by the more famous amazon rainforest, but this part of brazil is the most threatened and overexploited area. only 3% of land here is legally protected, despite being the world's most biodiverse savanna. and what's putting this area at risk is the surge in soy production caused by the rising demand for cheap food. and it's the local communities who suffer. are more and more families being driven away from their homes here? have some people lost their lives

because they simply refuse to leave what they say is their home? these lives matter. people here are just about hanging on to their homes, but for future generations, all this could soon look a whole lot different. adina campbell, bbc news, in brazil's cerrado savanna. in indonesia, an underwater search has begun for the wreckage of the lion air plane which crashed into the java sea yesterday. there were 189 passengers and crew on board — but there's been no sign of any survivors. rebecca henschke reports from jakarta. at the crash site, divers have been

deployed to try to locate the plane's black boxes. finding that will help investigators work out what went wrong. presidentjoko widodo inspecting the wreckage and promising a full investigation. this was the first boeing 737 max 8 to crash. a technical log obtained by the bbc shows that there were problems on a previous flight, but lion air insisting that those problems were solved and the plane was given a full clearance to fly. here, what's left of the plane, as well as people's possessions, are being laid out here at the port. for the families, it's another day of waiting. families have been told to come here to this police hospital where the remains that have been recovered from the wreckage of the plane have been brought.

here families are being asked to give dna samples, pieces of clothing, anything that can help officials here come to identify people. this woman's family has flown in in the hope of getting some closure. her little sister was on the plane. translation: we just desperately want some news, to give us a sense of peace. that is all. rebecca henschke, bbc news, jakarta. nato is holding its biggest military manoeuvres since the cold war, with a joint exercise around a mock invasion of norway. the 0peration — called tridentjuncture — started last week, and involves all 29 nato members as well as finland and sweden, and it's taking place a few hundred miles from norway's border with russia.

jonathan beale reports. it is a rehearsal for war. 50,000 military personnel from 31 nations on land, on sea and air. all converging on norway for the next few weeks in nato's largest military exercise since the end of the cold war. the scenario — the defence of a nato member that has come under attack. we are facing the most challenging security environment in a generation. of a collective defence in a generation. because, when the world changes, nato has to change. it has notjust been a test of military power, but also of the speed of response to rush to the aid of an ally under attack by sea, road and rail. a british military convoy travelling across the channel through germany, denmark and sweden before

arriving in norway. today, nato forces combined to carry out a simulated assault on an enemy position with landing craft backed by naval and air power. nato insists this is not evidence of a new cold war. but the reality is the alliance is relearning the same military skills that were used during that era. and while the enemy in this scenario is meant to be fictitious, it is no secret that this is happening amid rising tensions with russia. moscow has already responded, calling this an anti—russia exercise. but it follows hard on the heels of russia's own biggest war games — vostok — which moscow says involved 300,000 troops. nato insists its exercise is not a provocation, taking place hundreds of miles away from norway's border with russia.

but it wants to send a message that the alliance is ready to defend any ally. jonathan beale, bbc news. the duke and duchess of sussex have gone head—to—head in the first sporting competition of their southern hemisphere tour — welly wanging. and meghan emerged triumphant in the unusual skill. jonny dymond was watching — and sent this report from new zealand. which way? this way? 0h, this way. a lesson he'll never forget. this is welly—wanging. then it was meghan's turn. first, advice from expert wangers. and... oh, dear. i declare the red team the winner! still he was graceful in defeat as she took the unusual trophy. the build—up to the city

centre appearance drew onlookers from every quarter. 0n the ground, even the smallest fans got face time. this is the last big city of their four—country tour but despite the distinctly mixed weather there is an impressive turnout. enthusiasm for the royal family, headquarters 11 and a half thousand miles away, remains high. so, what is that draws the crowd? my grandmother and my mother always used to bring me out to see the queen or prince charles when they came to visit. we've done it with our children and kept up the tradition really. just exciting for someone to come to new zealand. come over here for once. enjoy the beautiful place. join the party. just the willingness to engage with new zealanders from all walks of life, particularly standing up and using...

speaking maori at the beginning of speeches and at the end, that shows, i think, a level of respect for new zealand that hasn't gone unnoticed here, and really appreciated. singing. quite a song and dance has been made of this royal tour, harry responded with heartfelt thanks and a bit of a joke. we are meeting little kiwis, we're meeting big kiwis are being treated to your fantastic food, culture and sporting activities. well, if you can call welly—wanging or gumboot throwing a sport. perhaps we should have a three test series and see who comes out on top. laughter. and then talks with some younger kiwis. the royal embrace of new zealand's future. jonny dymond, bbc news, auckland. time for a look at the weather. here's darren bett.

hello. we need our wellies today near the east coast, particularly here in lowestoft in suffolk where there have been quite a feud puddles earlier. a different world entirely across pembrokeshire and in the far south—west of england, glorious blue skies. some showers, sharp ones, across north wales, cheshire and merseyside, but most of it is towards the eastern coast. temperature is about eight or 9 degrees, another chilly day. cloud increasing and coming into northern ireland. we need to look at the cloud across central parts of europe. the potentialfor some severe weather. we have some pictures, this is saint mark's square in venice, there